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on Central and South America |
| By: | Marc Morgan; Pedro Souza |
| Abstract: | This paper proposes a novel assessment of the Kuznets curve for an underdeveloped country engaging in rapid late development. We mobilize new long-run data for Brazil, combining surveys, administrative records, and national accounts statistics, to compute macro-consistent income shares and other distributional indicators since the 1920s. Our estimates show a more nuanced picture for the traditional Kuznets hypothesis than what the existing literature has suggested. |
| Keywords: | Distribution, Development, Political economy, Kuznets, Brazil |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unu:wpaper:wp-2025-2 |
| By: | Resende, Davi; Richter, Gabriel; Sant'Anna, Marcelo (Fundação Getulio Vargas); Trindade, André |
| Abstract: | In certain settings, goods can be consumed outside of formal markets (e.g.: theft, counterfeit, or illegal sharing of subscriptions). When the share of informality is large, firms’ pricing decisions can be substantially affected, as the extensive margin - customers migrating to informal consumption - makes demand more elastic. We study this question in the context of electricity theft in Brazil, where stolen energy can represent more than 50% of the total formal market. We use detailed micro data from a major electric utility to estimate a structural model where consumers choose if they want to be formal or informal and then, how much to consume. For identification, we leverage a natural experiment where prices increased permanently to a set of consumers. We use the model to simulate counterfactual scenarios where: (i) theft is not possible, and (ii) the firm uses different pricing strategies. We find that the presence of informality increases the elasticity of demand from 0.24 to 0.39, and reduces monopoly optimal prices by 10.4%. Eliminating theft altogether would allow the firm to reduce prices by 17.7% while keeping profits constant. We also find that price discrimination is an effective tool to reduce informality rates. |
| Date: | 2025–02–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:m4ev5_v1 |
| By: | Veloso, Fernando; Gabriel Roberto Zaourak |
| Abstract: | Productivity growth in Brazil has not kept pace with developed and emerging economies, despite progress in achieving macroeconomic stability and implementing reforms in product and input markets. This paper reviews the literature on reforms and growth in Brazil to understand the factors that have hindered productivity growth. The paper discusses the impact of competitive distortions on productivity, the effect of structural change on productivity growth, and the evidence on misallocation and growth dynamics. Additionally, the paper analyzes the direct and indirect effects of several reforms, such as trade liberalization and formalization policies. Based on the main lessons from this review, the paper proposes a potential reform agenda to improve improve productivity in Brazil in the coming years and narrow the income gap with developed countries. |
| Date: | 2024–09–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10897 |
| By: | Nidhi Kalra; Edmundo Molina-Pérez (Rand Corporation); James Syme (Rand Corporation); Fernando Esteves; Hermilio Cortés; Mateo Tonatiuh Rodríguez-Cervantes; Víctor Manuel Espinoza-Juárez; Marcela Jaramillo; Richard Baron (2050 Pathways Platform); Claudio Alatorre; Marco Butazzoni; Adrien Vogt-Schilb (Inter-American Development Bank - Inter-American Development Bank) |
| Abstract: | Are development and decarbonization conflicting or complementary goals? In this report, we explore how Latin America and the Caribbean can improve socioeconomic and development outcomes while also reaching net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050. Specifically, we introduce SiSePuede, an open source decarbonization modeling toolkit that evaluates decarbonization actions costs, benefits, and emissions reductions across the economy. We find that maximizing actions could achieve net-zero emissions in the region before 2050 and net $2.7 trillion in benefits compared to more traditional development. Benefits include massive fuel cost savings; avoided costs from reduced air pollution, congestion, and car crashes; and the value of ecosystem services from forests. Although there are many paths to net-zero emissions, three actions are critical: producing electricity with renewables, electrifying transport, and protecting and restoring forests by halting deforestation and shifting food-production patterns. Economy-wide strategies that implement these actions at scale can reduce emissions dramatically and net enormous benefits to the region even amid deep uncertainties, with a median of $1 trillion in net benefits across all scenarios. These benefits are unevenly distributed across sectors and actors, and across time, so realizing them and ensuring a just transition to net zero requires governments to overcome important financing, regulatory, infrastructure, and other barriers. Each country must tailor its own strategy to address development and emissions goals based on local priorities, capabilities, resources, and technical capacity. SiSePuede provides a robust analytical foundation to support these efforts. |
| Keywords: | decarbonization, long-term strategy, climate mitigation, NDC |
| Date: | 2023–12–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-04458161 |