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on Central and South America |
| By: | Brunori, Paolo (University of Florence); Ferreira, Francisco H. G. (London School of Economics); Neidhöfer, Guido (Turkish-German University) |
| Abstract: | How strong is the transmission of socio-economic status across generations in Latin America? To answer this question, we first review the empirical literature on intergenerational mobility and inequality of opportunity for the region, summarizing results for both income and educational outcomes. We find that, whereas the income mobility literature is hampered by a paucity of representative datasets containing linked information on parents and children, the inequality of opportunity approach – which relies on other inherited and pre-determined circumstance variables – has suffered from arbitrariness in model selection. Two new data-driven approaches – one aligned with the ex-ante and the other with the ex-post conception of inequality of opportunity – are introduced to address this shortcoming. They yield a set of new inequality of opportunity estimates for twenty-seven surveys covering nine Latin American countries over various years between 2000 and 2015. In most cases, more than half of the current generation's inequality is inherited from the past – with a range between 44% and 63%. We argue that on balance, given the parsimony of the population partitions, these are still likely to be underestimates. |
| Keywords: | inequality of opportunity, intergenerational mobility, Latin America |
| JEL: | D31 I39 J62 O15 |
| Date: | 2024–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17202 |
| By: | Iván Kataryniuk (Banco de España); Raquel Lorenzo Alonso (Banco de España); Enrique Martínez Casillas (Banco de España); Jacopo Timini (Banco de España) |
| Abstract: | The COVID-19 pandemic marked a watershed for public finances in Latin America and around the world. Fiscal measures adopted in 2020 to cope with the health emergency were substantial and affected debt dynamics. While the situation partially reverted in the following years, public debt is still higher than its recent historical average for most countries in the region. In this context, the sustainability of public debt dynamics has taken on renewed importance. In this paper, we extend a standard Debt Sustainability Analysis (DSA) framework that considers significant features of Latin American economies – such as the existence of foreign currency denominated debt – by introducing an economic model that jointly determines future values of key macroeconomic variables. We then compute different scenarios for Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, and Peru, illustrating how fiscal and structural policy changes affect the dynamics of public debt. |
| Keywords: | public debt, fiscal rules, structural reforms, Debt Sustainability Analysis (DSA), Latin America |
| JEL: | E62 H63 H68 |
| Date: | 2024–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bde:opaper:2412e |
| By: | Alvaredo, Facundo (Paris School of Economics); Bourguignon, Francois (Paris School of Economics); Ferreira, Francisco H. G. (London School of Economics); Lustig, Nora (Tulane University) |
| Abstract: | Drawing on a comprehensive compilation of quantile shares and inequality measures for 34 countries, including over 5, 600 estimated Gini coefficients, we review the measurement of income inequality in Latin America and the Caribbean over the last seven decades. We find that there is quite a bit of uncertainty regarding inequality levels for the same country/year combinations. Differences in inequality levels estimated from household surveys alone are present but they derive from differences in the construction of the welfare indicator, the unit of analysis, or the treatment of the data. With harmonized household surveys, the discrepancies are quite small. The range, however, expands significantly when –to correct for undercoverage and underreporting especially at the top of the distribution– inequality estimates come from some combination of surveys and administrative tax data. The range increases even further when survey-based income aggregates are scaled to achieve consistency not only with tax registries but with National Accounts. Since no single method to correct for underreporting at the top is fully convincing at present, we are left with (often wide) ranges, or bands, of inequality as our best summaries of inequality levels. Reassuringly, however, the dynamic patterns are generally robust across the bands. Although the evidence roughly until the 1970s is too fragmentary and difficult to compare, clearer patterns emerge for the last fifty years. The main feature is a broad inverted U curve, with inequality rising in most countries prior to and often during the 1990s, and falling during the early 21st century, at least until around 2015, when trends appear to diverge across countries. This pattern is broadly robust but features considerable variation in timing and magnitude depending on the country. |
| Keywords: | income inequality, measurement, Latin America and the Caribbean |
| JEL: | D31 D63 O54 |
| Date: | 2024–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17201 |
| By: | Joaquín Matías Liwski (Department of Economics, Universidad de San Andrés) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the diverse impacts of corporate acquisitions on employees with data from Brazil’s formal employment sector (RAIS survey, 2007-2015) and the Thomson Reuters SDC Platinum Database. Employing a matched event studies design, I navigate labor market complexities, revealing heterogeneous effects at individual and firm levels. Notably, the analysis uncovers a significant short-term increase in log-wages for individuals in acquired firms, particularly in the immediate 0 to 1 years following events; however, separation outcomes predominantly occur in the same year as the acquisition. Job changes play a pivotal role, with incumbents and voluntary leavers experiencing positive outcomes, while involuntary terminations lead to declines, also in the long-run. The study explores age-related, educational, skill-based, and occupational differences, showing diverse impacts across these dimensions. Additionally, firm size emerges as a critical factor, influencing log-wages and separation outcomes. Ultimately, the change in firm productivity or firm-specific wage premiums drives observed effects, underlining one mechanism of M&A impacts on the workforce. |
| Date: | 2023–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sad:ypaper:14 |
| By: | Rodríguez Arenas, Jorge Leonardo (Universidad de los Andes) |
| Abstract: | Esta investigación evalúa la implementación de un programa de crédito-beca para estudiantes económicamente desfavorecidos con bajo desempeño académico sobre variables de resultado de la educación superior. Utilizando un diseño de regresión discontinua con datos de egresados de grado 11 entre 2015 y 2019 en uno de los departamentos más poblados de Colombia, se identificó un aumento significativo del 82% en la matrícula y del 146% en la graduación de universidad, comparado con la media de control. Contrariamente, la deserción de universidad también aumentó en 55% con respecto a la media de control. Estos resultados sugieren la revisión de los componentes del programa y motivan a una reflexión sobre las políticas de financiamiento educativo para reducir disparidades. Los hallazgos recalcan la necesidad de apoyar no solo la matrícula sino también el sustento de los estudiantes para disminuir la deserción. Asimismo, subraya la importancia de adaptar las políticas públicas a las variadas necesidades de los estudiantes con base en los efectos heterogéneos estimados, fomentando un acceso más equitativo a la educación superior y mejorando la retención y el éxito académico. |
| Keywords: | crédito-beca; educación superior; equidad |
| JEL: | I22 I23 I24 I26 J24 O15 |
| Date: | 2024–08–27 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000089:021189 |
| By: | Lafortune, Jeanne (Pontificia Universidad Catolica de Chile); Pino, Francisco J. (University of Chile) |
| Abstract: | Previous studies of female suffrage have interpreted the change in voting patterns as reflecting a change in voter composition, in part because only aggregate voting data was available. We exploit the existence of separate counts for women and men votes in Chile before and after female suffrage. We show that inference based on aggregates is inaccurate because men also change their voting behavior. Two potential explanations are provided: men responded to female suffrage through strategic voting and men previously represented in part women's vote due to negotiation within the household. We show evidence consistent with both hypotheses. |
| JEL: | D72 D13 N46 |
| Date: | 2024–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17227 |
| By: | Nupia Martínez, Oscar (Universidad de los Andes); Álvarez Gallo, Carlos Andrés (Universidad de los Andes) |
| Abstract: | We explore the impact of social protests on individual attitudes toward politics, human rights, and issues related to political economy. We use a unique panel dataset to analyze the effects of significant exposure to large-scale protests in 2019 in Colombia. The primary grievances fueling these social movements included dissatisfaction with the political elite, human rights violations, income inequality, and corruption. Our findings indicate that protests significantly alter individuals’ beliefs regarding some, but not all, of their core demands. We document a significant negative effect of protests on the likelihood of sympathizing with political parties and a positive effect on the appreciation for human rights. However, less robust evidence suggests that protests may decrease the probability of individuals endorsing a political ideology or accepting clientelistic offers. Additionally, we find no significant impact of demonstrations on individuals’ overall political ideology, their support for democratic elections, or their endorsement of distributive policies. |
| Keywords: | Social protest; political attitudes; political behavior; ideology; human rights; income distribution; clientelism. |
| JEL: | D72 D73 D74 D91 K38 |
| Date: | 2024–08–27 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000089:021190 |