New Economics Papers
on Central and South America
Issue of 2014‒04‒11
six papers chosen by

  1. Trade Liberalization, Inequality and Poverty in Brazilian States By Marta Castilho; Marta Menéndez; Aude Sztulman
  2. Enriching the Home Environment of Low-Income Families in Colombia: A Strategy to Promote Child Development at Scale. By Orazio Attanasio; Sally Grantham-McGregor; Camila Fernández; Emla Fitzsimons; Marta Rubio-Codina; Costas Meghir
  3. Inflation Targeting and Inflation Expectations: Evidence for Brazil and Turkey By Sumru Altug; Cem Cakmakli
  4. Desempeño del monotributo en la formalización del empleo y la ampliación de la protección social By Cetrángolo, Oscar; Goldschmit, Ariela; Gómez Sabaíni, Juan Carlos; Morán, Dalmiro
  5. The Impact of Adolescent Motherhood on Education in Chile By Berthelon, Matias; Kruger, Diana
  6. Uma Análise Exploratória dos Efeitos da Política de Formalização dos Microempreendedores Individuais By Carlos Henrique L. Corseuil; Marcelo Côrtes Neri; Gabriel Ulyssea

  1. By: Marta Castilho (Universidade Federal Fluminense - Universidade Federal Fluminense); Marta Menéndez (DIAL - Développement, institutions et analyses de long terme - Institut de recherche pour le développement [IRD], UP9 - Université Paris 9, Dauphine - Université Paris IX - Paris Dauphine, EEP-PSE - Ecole d'Économie de Paris - Paris School of Economics - Ecole d'Économie de Paris, PSE - Paris-Jourdan Sciences Economiques - CNRS : UMR8545 - École des Hautes Études en Sciences Sociales (EHESS) - École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC) - École normale supérieure [ENS] - Paris - Institut national de la recherche agronomique (INRA)); Aude Sztulman (LEDa - DIAL - Laboratoire d'Economie de Dauphine - Equipe Economie de la mondialisation et du développement - Université Paris IX - Paris Dauphine)
    Abstract: This paper studies the impact of globalization on household income inequality end poverty using detailed microdata across Brazilian states from 1987 to 2005. Results suggest that the Brazilian states more exposed to tariff cuts experienced smaller reductions in household poverty and inequality. Contrasting results emerge when we disaggregate into rural and uraban areas within states: trade liberalization contributes to growth in poverty and inequality in urban areas and may be linked to evidence indicating that state poverty and inequality in Brazil decrease with rising export exposure and increase with import penetration.
    Keywords: Trade Liberalization ; Poverty and inequality ; Latin America ; Brazilian states
    Date: 2014–03–28
  2. By: Orazio Attanasio; Sally Grantham-McGregor; Camila Fernández; Emla Fitzsimons; Marta Rubio-Codina; Costas Meghir
    Keywords: Home Enviornment, Low-Income Families, Colombia, Child Development
    JEL: F Z
    Date: 2013–06–30
  3. By: Sumru Altug (Department of Economics, Koc University, CEPR); Cem Cakmakli (Department of Economics, Koc University, Department of Quantitative Economics, University of Amsterdam)
    Abstract: In this paper, we study the evolution of inflation expectations for two key emerging economies, Brazil and Turkey, using a reduced form model in a state-space framework, where the level of inflation is modeled explicitly. We match the survey-based inflation expectations and inflation targets set by the central banks of Brazil and Turkey with the predictions implied by the model in a statistically coherent way. Confronting these expectations with inflation targets leads to a statistical measure of the discrepancy between inflation expectations and the target inflation. The results indicate that inflation expectations are anchored more closely the inflation target set by the Central Bank for Brazil. By contrast, there is more evidence that inflation expectations deviate significantly from the target inflation set by the Central Bank for Turkey.
    Keywords: Inflation targeting, survey-based inflation expectations, forecasting, state space model.
    JEL: E31 E37 C32 C51
    Date: 2014–04
  4. By: Cetrángolo, Oscar; Goldschmit, Ariela; Gómez Sabaíni, Juan Carlos; Morán, Dalmiro
    Keywords: informal economy, informal workers, social protection, social security, contributions, Argentina, économie informelle, travailleurs informels, protection sociale, sécurité sociale, cotisations, Argentine, economía informal, trabajadores informales, protección social, seguridad social, cotizaciones, Argentina
    Date: 2013
  5. By: Berthelon, Matias (Universidad Adolfo Ibañez); Kruger, Diana (Universidad Adolfo Ibañez)
    Abstract: We analyze the effect of having a child in adolescence on high school completion, educational attainment, and college enrollment in a developing country setting using nine repeated rounds of Chilean household surveys that span the 1990–2009 period. We control for selection bias and household unobservables of teen motherhood with two approaches: different estimation methods – propensity score matching and family fixed effects for a large sub-sample of sisters – and three different samples. Results reveal that adolescent motherhood reduces the probability of high school completion by between 18 to 37 percent. Furthermore, effects are heterogeneous across education groups: teen motherhood has larger negative effects on high school completion and years of schooling among poor and low-education households. Our results imply that policies aimed at reducing early childbearing will have important short-term effects on young women's education outcomes.
    Keywords: education, teen pregnancy, adolescent motherhood, youth, high school, Chile
    JEL: O15 J13 I25
    Date: 2014–03
  6. By: Carlos Henrique L. Corseuil; Marcelo Côrtes Neri; Gabriel Ulyssea
    Abstract: Este texto apresenta uma análise exploratória dos potenciais impactos da Lei do Empreendedor Individual (LMEI). O objetivo é trazer evidências que contribuam para esclarecer, ainda que parcialmente, se a política teve êxito em promover: i) o microempreendedorismo no Brasil; e ii) a formalização dos empreendedores individuais. Em relação à promoção do microempreendedorismo, há evidências de que a política pode ter atingido este objetivo. Cabe destacar, no entanto, que as evidências deste trabalho são compatíveis com empresários maiores reduzindo a escala para se enquadrarem no programa, e também com a possibilidade de que algumas empresas, em particular as menores, estejam usando o programa para trocar uma relação de trabalho assalariado por uma de prestação de serviços. A formalização dos empreendedores individuais parece ter sido afetada positivamente pela política no que diz respeito à contribuição para a previdência, mas não à inscrição no Cadastro Nacional de Pessoa Jurídica (CNPJ). This paper provides a preliminary analysis of the potential impacts from a formalization policy introduced in Brazil targeted at micro entrepreneurs with at most one employee. Our goal is to provide evidence to shed light on the following points: i) Did the program fostered micro entrepreneurship? ii) Did the program lead to greater formalization rates? The evidence suggests that the program might have positive effects on both points.
    Date: 2014–03

General information on the NEP project can be found at For comments please write to the director of NEP, Marco Novarese at <>. Put “NEP” in the subject, otherwise your mail may be rejected.
NEP’s infrastructure is sponsored by the School of Economics and Finance of Massey University in New Zealand.