New Economics Papers
on Central and South America
Issue of 2014‒03‒08
eight papers chosen by

  1. Navigating in Troubled Waters: South American Exports of Food and Agricultural Products in the World Market, 1900-1938 By Vicente Pinilla; Gema Aparicio
  2. Economic (In)Security and Gender Differences in Trade Policy Attitudes By Jeffrey Drope; Abdur Chowdhury
  3. Youth Turnover in Brazil: Job and Worker Flows and an Evaluation of a Youth-Targeted Training Program By Carlos Henrique Corseuil; Miguel Foguel; Gustavo Gonzaga; Eduardo Pontual Ribeiro
  4. The Effects of Regulations and Business Cycles on Temporary Contracts, the Organization of Firms and Productivity By Marcela Eslava; John Haltiwanger; Adriana Kugler; Maurice Kugler
  5. Previous financial crises leading to stagnation: Selected case studies By Dodig, Nina; Herr, Hansjörg
  6. Construyendo resiliencia ante shocks adversos: Factores y estrategias asociadas a la vulnerabilidad y la resiliencia By Lykke E. Andersen; Marcelo Cardona
  7. Estimação dos parâmetros de valorização dos estados de saúde em minas gerais a partir do EQ-5D By Mônica Viegas Andrade; Kenya Noronha
  8. Economic Growth and Wage Stagnation in Peru: 1998-2012 By Peter Paz; Carlos Urrutia

  1. By: Vicente Pinilla (Faculty of Economics and Business Studies, University of Zaragoza, Zaragoza, Spain); Gema Aparicio (Agri-food Economic History Group, University of Zaragoza, Zaragoza, Spain)
    Abstract: The present study offers a new quantitative base to analyze the evolution of exports of agricultural and food products from South America in the complicated period between 1900 and 1938. The data base has been elaborated from the information published by the International Institute of Agriculture (IIA), in those years. The paper also constructs a terms of trade series for South American agricultural exports, using the data of Grilli-Yang (1988), updated by Pfaffenzeller (2007). It is considered to be the first time of offering for this period a series for the evolution for the terms of trade in the region which takes into account in its construction the relative weight of the exports of the distinct agricultural products. An explanation is provided of the position of South America in the world market for agricultural products on the eve of the First World War. Then it is analyzed first the impact of the war on the volume of agricultural exports from the region and in second place that of the Great Depression. Finally the evolution of the terms of trade of South American agricultural exports throughout the period is analyzed..
    Keywords: Latin American Economic History, International Agrifood Trade, Great Depression.
    JEL: J20 F14 N56 N70 N76 Q17
    Date: 2014–03
  2. By: Jeffrey Drope; Abdur Chowdhury
    Abstract: Over time and across countries, researchers have noted frequent and mostly unexplained gender differences in the levels of support for policies of free or freer trade: women tend to be less favorable toward policies of liberalizing trade than men. Using an economic security explanation based principally on a mobile factors approach, we find that it is not women generally who are more negative toward trade but particularly economically vulnerable women – i.e. women from the scarce labor factor. We utilize recent survey data on individuals’ attitudes toward different facets of trade and its effects across three disparate regions to examine this phenomenon empirically. An economic security approach helps to explain the marked differences in attitudes toward trade among lower- and higher-skilled females in developing and developed countries.
    Keywords: trade policy, gender difference, labor mobility, Latin America, Muslim countries
    JEL: F14 F20 O57
    Date: 2014–01–01
  3. By: Carlos Henrique Corseuil (IPEA); Miguel Foguel (IPEA); Gustavo Gonzaga (PUC-Rio); Eduardo Pontual Ribeiro (UFRJ)
    Abstract: Understanding what drives the attachment of young workers to formal jobs seems to be a promising path to reduce both youth turnover and unemployment rates. In this study we tackle the issue of turnover and labor market attachment of young workers from two perspectives.
    Date: 2014–02
  4. By: Marcela Eslava (Universidad de Los Andes); John Haltiwanger (University of Maryland and NBER); Adriana Kugler (Georgetown University, NBER, and Department of Labor.); Maurice Kugler (UNDP)
    Abstract: We assess the impact, on workforce contract composition, employment adjustment dynamics and productivity, of a combination of changes in the Colombian labor legislation which increased firm’s ability of using contracts of a temporary nature, and posterior changes that increased the costs associated with longer term contracts. Until 1990, labor regulations in Colombia practically banned the possibility of using fixed-term contracts for horizons of less than one year (see, e.g. Kugler, 2004). The labor market component of a broad package of market reforms adopted at the beginning of the nineties opened the possibility of hiring under fixed term contracts of different types. Some of these contracts not only free employers of potential dismissal costs, but are also subject to reduced, or even zero, non-wage costs. Regulatory changes occurred in the decade that followed further increased incentives to use fixed term contracts.
    Date: 2014–02
  5. By: Dodig, Nina; Herr, Hansjörg
    Abstract: This paper analyses several severe financial crises observed in the history of capitalism which led to a longer period of stagnation or low growth. Comparative case studies of the Great Depression, the Latin American debt crisis of the 1980s and the Japanese crisis of the 1990s and 2000s are presented. The following questions are asked: What triggered big financial crises? Which factors intensified financial crises? And most importantly, which factors prevented the return of prosperity for a long time? The main conclusion is that stagnation after big financial crises becomes likely when the balance sheets of economic units are not quickly cleaned, when the nominal wage anchor breaks, and when there is no big and longer growth stimulus by the state. Some tentative conclusions for the subprime financial crisis and the Great Recession are drawn. --
    Keywords: financial crises,stagnation,deflation,lost decade,Great Depression,Latin American debt crisis,Japanese crisis,Great Recession
    JEL: E65 G01 N12 N15 N16
    Date: 2014
  6. By: Lykke E. Andersen (Institute for Advanced Development Studies (INESAD)); Marcelo Cardona (Institute for Advanced Development Studies (INESAD))
    Abstract: Este documento presenta una metodología para medir la diversificación de los medios de vida de los hogares. Esta medida, junto a los niveles de ingresos de los hogares, nos permite clasificarlos según la vulnerabilidad que estos pudieran tener. Aplicamos análisis de regresión para detectar los factores y estrategias asociadas a resiliencia y a vulnerabilidad. Los resultados muestran que la estrategia más importante para lograr resiliencia es que los hogares cuenten con una esposa que aporte a los ingresos del hogar. Esto todavía no es común en Bolivia, ya que muchas mujeres se ocupan exclusivamente de las labores del hogar. Un segundo factor importante es la edad del jefe de hogar. Los hogares jóvenes son muy vulnerables porque no han tenido tiempo para acumular el capital humano, financiero y social que les podría permitir crear otras fuentes de sustento para el hogar. Algunos de los resultados más sorprendentes es que los hogares urbanos son considerados más vulnerables que los hogares rurales, mientras que el género o la etnicidad son irrelevantes. El documento concluye con una lista de recomendaciones para la implementación de políticas.
    Keywords: Diversificación de las fuentes de ingreso, resiliencia, vulnerabilidad, shock externo, Bolivia
    JEL: D13 I32 O54
    Date: 2014–01
  7. By: Mônica Viegas Andrade (Cedeplar-UFMG); Kenya Noronha (Cedeplar-UFMG)
    Abstract: To elicit preference weights for a subset of EuroQol five-dimensional (EQ-5D) questionnaire health states from a representative sample for the state of Minas Gerais, Brazil, using a time trade-off (TTO) method and to analyze these data so as to estimate social preference weights for the complete set of 243 states. Methods: Data came from a valuation study with 3362 literate individuals aged between 18 and 64 years living in urban areas. The present study was based on quota sampling by age and sex. Face-to-face interviews were conducted in participants’ own homes. A total of 99 EQ-5D questionnaire health states were selected, presorted into 26 blocks of six unique health states. Each participant valued one block together with the full health, worst health, and dead states. Each health state was evaluated by more than 100 individuals. TTO data were modeled at both individual and aggregate levels by using ordinary least squares and random effects methods. Results: Values estimated by different models yielded very similar results with satisfactory goodness-of-fit statistics: the mean absolute error was around 0.03 and fewer than 25% of the states had a mean absolute error greater than 0.05. Dummies coefficients for each level within the EQ-5D questionnaire dimensions of health displayed an internally consistent ordering, with the mobility dimension demonstrating the largest value decrement. The values of mean observed transformed TTO values range from 0.869 to−0.235. Conclusions: The study demonstrates the feasibility of conducting face-to-face interviews using TTO in a Brazilian population setting. The estimated values for EQ-5D questionnaire health states based on this Minas Gerais survey represent an important first step in establishing national Brazilian social preference weights for the EQ-5D questionnaire.
    Keywords: Cost-effectiveness, Cost-utility, EQ-5D, Health States, Time Trade-Off
    JEL: I1 I18 O2
    Date: 2014–02
  8. By: Peter Paz (ITAM); Carlos Urrutia (ITAM)
    Abstract: In the last two decades, the Peruvian economy exhibited rapid growth. Moreover, the composition of the labor force improved in terms of education and experience, two variables which are typically associated to higher human capital. The average worker in 2012 had a higher level of education and was one and a half years older than in 1998, reflecting the impact of the demographic transition. However, the average real wage was roughly constant. We show that a decline in the wage premium for education, and to a minor extent for experience, is responsible for the lack of growth in the average real wage. Had these two premia remained constant throughout the period of analysis, average labor earnings would have increased by about 2.6 percent per year, of which 0.7 percentage points are accounted for the changes in the composition of the labor force in terms of age and education. We explore the role of the relative supply of workers with different levels of human capital as an explanation for the decline in the wage premium for education. Finally, we analyze the implications of these findings for some macroeconomic variables, as earnings and wage inequality, the labor share and total factor productivity.
    Date: 2014–02

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