nep-lam New Economics Papers
on Central and South America
Issue of 2013‒12‒20
six papers chosen by
Maximo Rossi
University of the Republic

  1. Measuring Inflation Persistence in Brazil Using a Multivariate Model By Vicente da Gama Machado; Marcelo Savino Portugal
  2. The impact of high school financial education : experimental evidence from Brazil By Bruhn, Miriam; de Souza Leao, Luciana; Legovini, Arianna; Marchetti, Rogelio; Zia, Bilal
  3. Agrarian income distribution, land ownership systems, and economic performance: Settler economies during the first globalization By Jorge Álvarez; Henry Willebald
  4. Childcare Availability and Female Labor Force Participation: An Empirical Examination of the Chile Crece Contigo Program By James Manley; Felipe Vasquez
  5. The evolution of inequality in Australasia and the River Plate, 1870-1914 By Jorge Álvarez
  6. Google Trends: Predicción del nivel de empleo agregado en Perú usando datos en tiempo real, 2005-2011 By Chang, Jillie; Del Río, Andrea

  1. By: Vicente da Gama Machado; Marcelo Savino Portugal
    Abstract: We estimate inflation persistence in Brazil in a multivariate framework of unobserved components, accounting for the following sources affecting inflation persistence: Deviations of expectations from the actual policy target; persistence of the factors driving inflation; and the usual intrinsic measure of persistence, evaluated through lagged inflation terms. Data on inflation, output and interest rates are decomposed into unobserved components. To simplify the estimation of a great number of unknown variables, we employ Bayesian analysis. Our results indicate that expectations-based persistence matters considerably for inflation persistence in Brazil
    Date: 2013–11
  2. By: Bruhn, Miriam; de Souza Leao, Luciana; Legovini, Arianna; Marchetti, Rogelio; Zia, Bilal
    Abstract: This paper studies the impact of a comprehensive financial education program spanning six states, 868 schools, and approximately 20,000 high school students in Brazil through a randomized control trial. The program increased student financial knowledge by a quarter of a standard deviation and led to a 1.4 percentage point increase in saving for purchases, better likelihood of financial planning, and greater participation in household financial decisions by students."Trickle-up"impacts on parents were also significant, with improvements in parent financial knowledge, savings, and spending behavior. The study also finds evidence that the program affected students'inter-temporal preferences and attitudes.
    Keywords: Tertiary Education,Financial Literacy,Education For All,Secondary Education,Primary Education
    Date: 2013–12–01
  3. By: Jorge Álvarez (Programa de Historia Económica y Social, Facultad de Ciencias Sociales, Universidad de la República); Henry Willebald (Instituto de Económia, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y de Administración, Universidad de la República)
    Abstract: The aim of this paper is to explain the impact of the establishment of the system of landownership on the income distribution and economic growth of settler economies (Argentina, Australia, New Zealand and Uruguay) during the First Globalization. We consider a conceptual framework based on the New Institutional Economic Theory to describe the process of the distribution of the land property rights in historical perspective and to analyze the characteristics of the land tenure system in a comparative perspective. Our results identify two models of distribution of property rights within the “club”. One of them corresponds to Australasia and, the other, to the River Plate countries, and they represented different consequences in terms of productive expansion and inequality. The land rents absorb a much larger part of total output in River Plate than in Australasia and, as result, it represents a negative incentive to productivity growth that contributes to explain the relative failure of Argentina and Uruguay compared to Australia and New Zealand.
    Keywords: Land ownership systems, functional income distribution, River Plate, Australasia
    JEL: N26 N27 N36 N37
    Date: 2013–09
  4. By: James Manley (Department of Economics, Towson University); Felipe Vasquez (School of Business and Economics, Universidad del Desarrollo)
    Abstract: Few works have examined the relationship between maternal participation in the labor force and the availability of child care in developing countries. Existing papers also tend to rely on relatively simplistic, correlative analysis of the data rather than modeling the joint decision to invest in formal childcare and to choose a level of labor supply. This paper takes advantage of a policy-induced positive shock in the provision of child care to apply instrumental variables in a simultaneous equations context, resulting in estimates that are more rigorous than any currently available in a developing country context. Policymakers are able to optimize their policy choices if they have better information on the elasticity of labor supply with respect to the cost of child care, and we find no evidence that the program is associated with an increase in women's labor supply.
    Keywords: Female Labor Supply, Child Care, Labor Force, Chile, CASEN, JUNJI.
    JEL: J13 J22 O12 H42
    Date: 2013–12
  5. By: Jorge Álvarez (Programa de Historia Económica y Social, Facultad de Ciencias Sociales, Universidad de la República)
    Abstract: In the last ten years, economic historians have become increasingly interested in the effects of the first globalisation (1870 – 1914) on income distribution. It is thought that in regions of European settlement, with abundant land and a scarcity of workers, inequality increased over the period. However, countries like Argentina, Australia, New Zealand and Uruguay not only received immigrants from Europe but also expanded their national frontiers. These countries underwent changing endowments of these factors (population and land) during the first globalization, and this calls for an analysis of the evolution of inequality considering the specific impacts of these contradictory trends. The aim of this article is to present evidence about the evolution of the wage/rental ratio in four provinces in Argentina (Buenos Aires, Córdoba, Entre Ríos and Santa Fé) and four states in Australia (Victoria, New South Wales, Queensland and South Australia) during the first globalisation of capitalism. We compare these trends with those in two small countries, New Zealand and Uruguay. We also analyse the processes of frontier expansion in each case with a focus on the institutions that regulated the distribution of land ownership rights. The evidence from this approach, which is centred on frontier expansion and domestic institutions, indicates that increasing inequality was the dominant trend in some cases but not all. We also found that, in the context of the first globalisation, domestic institutions contributed to the formation of income distribution patterns that were different in Australasia to those in the River Plate countries.
    Keywords: prices of the factors, income distribution, settler economies, River Plate, Australasia, first globalization
    JEL: N26 N27 N36 N37
    Date: 2013–09
  6. By: Chang, Jillie (Universidad del Pacífico); Del Río, Andrea (Universidad del Pacífico)
    Abstract: En este documento se analiza si la información proporcionada por Google Trends puede reflejar el comportamiento de variables macroeconómicas de Perú, como el Índice de Empleo de Lima para Empresas de 100 y más Trabajadores (IE100). Utilizando esta fuente de información se construyó un índice que representa a la población que busca trabajo, el cual fue denominado Índice de Google de Desempleo (IGD). Los resultados indican que el modelo que incluye este índice mejora la predicción del IE100. Asimismo, se encuentra que este permite realizar predicciones contemporáneas y un periodo hacia adelante; empero, no permite anticipar la senda futura para más de un periodo. La importancia de estos hallazgos radica en que Google Trends es una fuente de información con una frecuencia más alta (semanal) que está disponible cuatro meses antes que las fuentes oficiales. En tal sentido, resulta una herramienta útil para toma de decisiones de los hacedores de política en particular en épocas de crisis, en donde el seguimiento y predicción de las variables de la actividad económica en tiempo real es fundamental.
    Keywords: Internet, motor de búsquedas, Google, Perú, empleo, análisis de series de tiempo, predicciones
    JEL: C22 E24 C82 C53
    Date: 2013–12

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