New Economics Papers
on Central and South America
Issue of 2013‒11‒16
fourteen papers chosen by

  1. Overlapping Regionalism, No Integration: Conceptual Issues and the Latin American Experiences By Andrés Malamud
  2. Applied economic model for an innovation growth By Josheski, Dushko; Magdinceva-Sopova, Marija
  3. Firm Dynamics, Job Turnover, and Wage Distributions in an Open Economy By A. Kerem Cosar; Nezih Guner; James Tybout
  4. Goodbye Inflation Targeting, Hello Fear of Floating? Latin America after the Global Financial Crisis* By Reinhart, Carmen
  5. Sovereign debt crises in Latin America: A market pressure approach By Kuper, Gerard; Jacobs, Jan; Boonman, Tjeerd
  6. The Decline in Inequality In Brazil, 2003-2009: The Role Of The State By Souza, Pedro H.G.F.
  7. The State and income inequality in Brazil By Medeiros, Marcelo; Souza, Pedro H.G.F.
  8. Value Added and Contextual Factors in Education: Evidence from Chilean Chools By Thieme Claudio; Prior Diego; Tortosa-Ausina Emili; Gempp René
  9. Análisis de las disparidades regionales en Colombia: una aproximación desde la estadística espacial, 1985 – 2010 By Moncada Mesa, Jhonny; Loaiza Quintero, Osmar Leandro
  10. Potencial de Convergência Regional em Educação no Brasil By Marcelo Medeiros; Luis Felipe Batista de Oliveira
  11. Online publishing and citation success in the business and economic history of Spain, 1997-2011 By Bernardo Bátiz-Lazo; Rasol Eskandari; John Goddard
  12. Internal and International Vertical Specialization of Brazilian states– An Input-Output analysis By Yücer, Aycil; Siroën, Jean-Marc; GUILHOTO, Joaquim
  13. Capital market inflation in emerging markets: The case of Brazil and South Korea By Bonizzi, Bruno
  14. Poverty Impacts of Agricultural Policy Adjustments in an Opening Economy: the Case of Colombia By Ricardo Arguello; Daniel Valderrama G.; Sandra Acero W.

  1. By: Andrés Malamud
    Abstract: After 20 years of its foundation, MERCOSUR has failed to meet its declared goals. Far from being a common market and not yet a customs union, it has neither deepened nor (legally) enlarged. All other regionalist projects in Latin America fare even worse, albeit they have arguably fostered domestic democracy, economic reforms and more peaceful regional relations. This paper introduces a conceptual toolkit for comparing regional integration, and then apply it to explain the sprawling goals and declining performance of the Latin American experiences. The aim is to show how the strengthening of national sovereignty †as opposed to its pooling or delegation †is at the heart of most contemporary regionalist strategies.
    Date: 2013–03–27
  2. By: Josheski, Dushko; Magdinceva-Sopova, Marija
    Abstract: The issue of institutional support for innovations in Latin American countries has been examined in this paper. We use aprirori theoretical knowledge on this issue in order to derive one econometric model out of a theoretical framework. The influence on human capital variable on innovations growth it is straightforward. However, the sign on the institutions variable is ambiguous. Defective institutions in Latin American countries resulted in regional’s social conflicts which were severe, and the ability of social groups to use formal political institutions to resolve, or mitigate this conflicts has been much less effective. The lack of democracy if we may say, deteriorates the entrepreneurial spirit and hence institutions may as well turn not to be supportive of innovations.
    Keywords: Innovations, human capital, quality of institutions, Latin America
    JEL: E1 O33 O43 O54
    Date: 2013–11
  3. By: A. Kerem Cosar; Nezih Guner; James Tybout
    Abstract: This paper explores the combined effects of reductions in trade frictions, tariffs, and firing costs on firm dynamics, job turnover, and wage distributions. It uses establishment-level data from Colombia to estimate an open economy dynamic model that links trade to job flows in a new way. The fitted model captures key features of Colombian firm dynamics and labor market outcomes, as well changes in these features during the past 25 years. Counterfactual experiments imply that integration with global product markets has increased both average income and job turnover in Colombia. In contrast, the experiments find little role for this country’s labor market reforms in driving these variables. The results speak more generally to the effects of globalization on labor markets in Latin America and elsewhere.
    Keywords: international trade, firm dynamics, size distribution, labor market frictions, inequality
    JEL: F12 F16 E24 J64 L11
    Date: 2013–11
  4. By: Reinhart, Carmen
    Abstract: This paper focuses on some of the macroeconomic risks that lie ahead for Latin America. The discussion is informed by my work on crises and capital flows and their macroeconomic consequences. The trends and initial conditions that allowed the region to weather the global economic storm of 2008-2009 are discussed, as is the subsequent reversal of some of those benign trends. I review the historical patterns connecting large capital inflow surges, or “capital flow bonanzas,” with the likelihood of a variety of crises—banking, currency, external default and inflation. For Latin America, in particular, large capital flow bonanzas have seldom ended well. The implications for inflation of importing (via less than fully flexible exchange rates) the expansionary policy of the “North” are discussed.
    Keywords: capital inflows, appreciation, currency crises, banking crises, inflation, debt
    JEL: E3 E31 F3 F30 G01 N16 N26
    Date: 2013–04
  5. By: Kuper, Gerard; Jacobs, Jan; Boonman, Tjeerd (Groningen University)
    Abstract: We construct a continuous sovereign debt crisis index for four large Latin American countries for the period 1870-2012. Our sovereign debt crisis index is similar to the Exchange Market Pressure Index for currency crises, and the Money Market Pressure Index for banking crises. To obtain the optimal set of indicators and the optimal value of the threshold for dating crises we apply the Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve. We calculate our sovereign debt crisis index as a weighted average of three indicators, the debt to GDP ratio, the external interest rate spread and the exports to imports ratio. The continuous index allows a more advanced analysis of sovereign debt crises. We include two applications. In the first application we investigate the relationship between sovereign debt crises and the business cycle in Latin America. Our second application constructs a similar index for five European countries.
    Date: 2013
  6. By: Souza, Pedro H.G.F.
    Keywords: Social and Behavioral Sciences
    Date: 2013–11–12
  7. By: Medeiros, Marcelo; Souza, Pedro H.G.F.
    Keywords: Social and Behavioral Sciences
    Date: 2013–11–11
  8. By: Thieme Claudio (Universidad Diego portales); Prior Diego (Universidad Autónoma de Barcelona); Tortosa-Ausina Emili (INSTITUTO VALENCIANO DE INVESTIGACIONES ECONÓMICAS (Ivie) UNIVERSITY JAUME I); Gempp René (Diego Portales University)
    Abstract: There is consensus in the literature about the need to control for socioeconomic status and other contextual variables at student and school level in the estimation of value added models, for which methodologies rely on hierarchical linear models. However, this approach is problematic because the nature of their estimate is a comparison with a school mean, implying no real incentive for performance excellence. Meanwhile, activity analysis models recently developed to estimate school value added have been unable to control for contextual variables. We propose a robust frontier model to estimate contextual value added which integrates recent advances in the activity analysis literature. We provide an application to a sample of schools in Chile, where reforms have been made in the educational system focusing on the need for accountability measures. Results indicate the general relevance of including contextual variables, and explain the performance differentials found for the three school types.
    Keywords: Efficiency, order-m, school effectiveness, value added.
    JEL: C61 I21 H52
    Date: 2013–11
  9. By: Moncada Mesa, Jhonny; Loaiza Quintero, Osmar Leandro
    Abstract: Resumen: Este trabajo tiene por objetivo determinar si existe convergencia en la actividad económica de los municipios de Colombia, medida por medio de los Ingresos Tributarios per cápita, para el periodo 1985-2010. Con este fin se realiza un análisis exploratorio de datos espaciales, elaborando los indicadores de Moran Global y Local; además, se construye la Matriz de Markov del Moran Local, donde se encuentra autocorrelación espacial positiva entre los municipios del país, sobresaliendo las Áreas Metropolitanas ubicadas en Cundinamarca y Antioquia. Por otro lado, se testea la hipótesis de convergencia no condicional mediante estimaciones de convergencia clásica, en primera medida, para luego incluir explícitamente la dependencia espacial en el modelo de regresión. De esta forma, se concluye que hay convergencia en los municipios colombianos para el periodo analizado, llegado a una velocidad de convergencia aproximada de 3,34% anual.
    Abstract: This paper aims to determine whether there is any convergence at all between the economic activities of the Colombian municipalities, measured by the per capita tax revenues of each one, for the period 1985-2010. To this end, an exploratory spatial data analysis is performed, calculating the local and global Moran indicators, as well as the Markov Matrix of the local Moran. Positive spatial autocorrelation is found between Colombian municipalities, being the metropolitan areas located in Cundinamarca and Antioquia examples of outstanding performance. This way, it is concluded that there is convergence between the Colombian municipalities for the period analyzed, reaching an approximate convergence speed of 3.34% per annum.
    Keywords: Economía espacial, econometría espacial, disparidad regional, convergencia, Spatial Economics, Spatial Econometrics, Regional Disparity, Convergence
    JEL: C21 O47 R11 R12
    Date: 2013–10–30
  10. By: Marcelo Medeiros; Luis Felipe Batista de Oliveira
    Abstract: Este estudo analisa fatores que afetam as desigualdades educacionais entre e dentro de regiões do Brasil, com foco em determinar como diferenças de características das populações e a forma diferenciada como essas características se distribuem influenciam resultados educacionais em cada região do país. Para isso, é analisada a população de jovens de 14 a 17 anos, em todo o Brasil, a partir de dados da Pesquisa Nacional por Amostra de Domicílios (PNAD). Por meio da decomposição da desigualdade entre efeitos de atributos observados, respostas observadas a esses atributos e resíduos das regressões lineares de predição da educação, conclui-se que, para explicar desigualdades entre e intrarregionais, as respostas aos atributos são mais importantes que diferenças nas distribuições de atributos. Há, portanto, a possibilidade de se reverter uma parte da desigualdade educacional por meio de políticas educacionais que promovam uma convergência regional na direção das regiões em melhores condições. We analyze the factors determining educational inequalities within and between regions in Brazil. We are interested in how characteristics and the return to these characteristics in each region affect educational outcomes. For this we analyze the population of people aged 14 to 17 years in Brazil using PNAD data. By decomposing inequality in the effect of observed attributes, return to these attributes and residuals from the linear regressions used for prediction, we conclude that differences in the returns to the attributes are more important to inequality than differences in the distributions of attributes. Therefore, it is possible to reduce at least part of regional inequalities by means of educational policies if education in the worst off regions improves in the direction of the better off regions.
    Date: 2013–10
  11. By: Bernardo Bátiz-Lazo (Bangor University); Rasol Eskandari (University of Salford); John Goddard (Bangor University)
    Abstract: This paper examines the determinants of citation success among authors who have published on the economic and business history of Spain. It departs from the dominant cross section approach to the quantitative assessment of citation success by enabling a 15-year time series analysis of peer-reviewed Spanish and Latin American outlets. Moreover, it considers working papers published online and assesses the role of Spanish as a medium to communicate with an international audience. Our results suggest a high concentration of publications and citations in a small number of authors (including non-residents), the number of years since publication and the importance of international outlets in citation success. Dissemination of online publications was not statistically significant in this sample.
    Keywords: knowledge diffusion, electronic publishing, citation indexes, bibliometrics (publication scores), impact, Spain
    JEL: A11 N0 N8 M4 O31
    Date: 2013–05
  12. By: Yücer, Aycil; Siroën, Jean-Marc; GUILHOTO, Joaquim
    Abstract: WTO, OECD with many others, suggest the trade in value-added would be a “better” measure to understand the impact of trade on employment, growth, production etc. when import content in exports is important. We use in this work an Input-Output table for 2008, to calculate the value-added exported by Brazilian states. We distinguish the value-added exported directly by the state itself or indirectly via other states. Then, we define the extent of vertical specialization among Brazilian states by using value-added indirectly exported. We calculate equally the import content in states’ exports. If the share of import content in Brazilian exports is low, we show evidence that inter-state trade is quite high across some Brazilian states. Inter-state vertical specialization then operates at upstream stages of the value chain before the good be exported to foreign countries.
    Keywords: Vertical Specialization; Global supply-chain; Input-Output Analysis; Brazil; intra-national trade;
    JEL: F02 F15 R12 R15
    Date: 2013–06
  13. By: Bonizzi, Bruno
    Abstract: This paper aims to investigate the dynamics of capital markets in emerging markets in a period of financial integration. It takes the case of Brazil and South Korea, two key emerging markets in the global economy, to assess the relationship between capital flows and equity prices. This is analysed through Jan Toporowski’s theory of “capital market inflation”, which explains the movements of equity prices in relation to the inflows of funds into the capital market. The main argument put forward is that the foreign capital inflows into the emerging equity markets have substantially concurred to create the excess liquidity that gives rise to a process of capital market inflation. This contributes both to extend Toporowski’s theory to the context of emerging financially open countries, and to give a new perspective to the debates over financial globalisation by proposing the theory of capital market inflation as a framework to understand the mechanics of capital flows to emerging markets. The empirical evidence available from Brazil and South Korea suggests that this is a consistent and instructive framework of analysis.
    Keywords: Finance, Capital Market, Asset Price, Capital Gain, Globalisation
    JEL: E12 O16
    Date: 2013–09
  14. By: Ricardo Arguello; Daniel Valderrama G.; Sandra Acero W.
    Abstract: We aim to assess the sectoral and poverty impacts of changes in agricultural policy in Colombia on the rural sector. For this we use an agriculture specialized static CGE model, together with a microsimulation model that allows employment to shift between sectors. The results indicate that the sectoral impact of the implemented program tends to be small and varies considerably across crops. Also, while it does reduce poverty, these impacts are small and tend to be concentrated in rural households toward the middle of the household income distribution.
    Keywords: Agricultural policy, Rural poverty, Computable General Equilibrium, Microsimulation, Colombia
    Date: 2012

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