nep-lam New Economics Papers
on Central and South America
Issue of 2013‒10‒05
five papers chosen by
Maximo Rossi
University of the Republic

  1. Political Inequality and the Origins of Distrust: Evidence for Colombia By Alvarez Villa, Daphne
  2. The Relationship Between Credit and Business Cycles in Central America and the Dominican Republic By Ramirez, Francisco
  3. Ciclo económico y distribución funcional del ingreso sectorial en Argentina 1995-2002 By Anchorena, Sergio Oscar; Trípodi, Daniela
  4. La restricción externa como condicionante de la estructura salarial en la economía argentina By Gallo, Marcos Esteban
  5. Preschool education in Brazil:Does public supply crowd out private enrollment? By Paulo Bastos; Odd Rune Straume

  1. By: Alvarez Villa, Daphne
    Abstract: This paper aims to identify the effect of political exclusion on social capital in Colombia, suggesting social capital as an important channel through which political inequality has been central for Colombian economic development. I use the Colombian National Front agreement during 1958-1974 to test my hypothesis, as it institutionalized the political exclusion of non-traditional parties in that country. Whereas it affected all regions at the same time, it implied differential effects according to the municipalities’ initial political diversity. The empirical strategy deals with the potential endogeneity in the variation of the treatment by using region fixed effects and relevant control variables in a cross-section model, as well as performing robustness checks. I further use panel fixed effects models with electoral turnout as a measure of social capital. I find that political exclusion imposed by the National Front may have led to less trusting individuals today, to a higher perception of free riding behaviors and to lower levels of electoral turnout. I also find that a possible channel through which political exclusion in the past may be able to explain social capital in the present is distrust towards the state.
    Keywords: Political Institutions; Social Capital; Democracy; Colombia
    JEL: N46 O12 O17 Z13
    Date: 2013–08
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lmu:muenec:17198&r=lam
  2. By: Ramirez, Francisco
    Abstract: This study provides evidence of the relationship between credit and real activity in Central America and the Dominican Republic. We address the empirics of the link between credit and real activity for the case of a group of developing countries with limited financial markets where bank credit is the main source of external finance for the private sector. We compile information of credit to the private sector and the aggregate economic activity for Costa Rica, El Salvador, Honduras, Guatemala, Nicaragua and the DR. The data is analyzed using simple statistical tools (Granger causality tests and spectral analysis) to identify stylized facts on the credit-activity relationship. We find a positive relationship between credit and real activity in frequencies associated to business cycles for all countries. The credit - economic relationship in cycles lasting 10 or more years seems relevant in Costa Rica and the DR. There is evidence suggesting that credit precedes economic activity at business cycles frequencies in Costa Rica, El Salvador, Honduras, Nicaragua and the DR. Excluding Nicaragua, this pattern is observed also in cycles over 8 years for mentioned economies. In case of Guatemala there is no evidence of statistical precedence of credit to economic activity.
    Keywords: Credit; Business Cycles; Spectral Analysis;Granger Causality
    JEL: C32 E32 E51
    Date: 2013–10
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:50332&r=lam
  3. By: Anchorena, Sergio Oscar; Trípodi, Daniela
    Abstract: El objetivo de este trabajo es analizar el comportamiento del ingreso de los trabajadores asalariados en Argentina durante el ciclo económico del PBI 1995-2002, cuya fase expansiva se da entre 1995 y 1998, y su fase regresiva entre 1998 y 2002. El período se caracterizó por una baja intervención del Estado en políticas de empleo y desembocó en una crisis política y social, con un deterioro creciente del nivel de vida hasta el año 2002. El análisis se realiza a nivel global y por sector y rama de actividad, determinando la participación del salario en la riqueza generada por cada sector y rama de actividad en cada fase del ciclo, caracterizando como regresiva o progresiva cada fase, en cada sector, de acuerdo con los efectos redistributivos que implica. Para ello se utilizan los datos provenientes de la Dirección de Cuentas Nacionales del Ministerio de Economía, en lo que refiere a la "Generación del Ingreso Total de la Economía" y al "Insumo de Mano de Obra e Ingresos Generados en la Producción", y del INDEC en lo que refiere a la "Estimación del Producto Interno Bruto" y el "Valor Agregado de la Producción" a valores constantes para cada rama y sector. Se deflactan los valores de las retribución del trabajo asalariado, y se analizan sus dinámicas. Se observa que la dinámica de las diferentes ramas y sectores arroja resultados diferentes, tanto en lo que respecta a su asociación con el ciclo económico global, como en lo que respecta a la apropiación del ingreso generado por parte del estado, los trabajadores y el resto de los factores productivos. Finalmente se analizan las implicaciones que estos resultados pueden tener para el diseño de políticas de ingreso contracíclicas sectoriales destinadas a mantener una distribución equitativa del ingreso en las diferentes fases del ciclo económico.
    Keywords: Ciclos Económicos; Distribución del Ingreso; Asalariados; Argentina;
    Date: 2013–06
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nmp:nuland:1855&r=lam
  4. By: Gallo, Marcos Esteban
    Abstract: El objetivo del presente trabajo es analizar el modo en que las distintas variables macroeconómicas que definen la restricción externa condicionaron la evolución de la estructura salarial de la economía argentina en el período 1991-2012, procurando reflexionar acerca de las diferencias observadas entre la fase de convertibilidad y el período posterior a la devaluación de 2002. En tal sentido, en cada una de estas etapas la restricción externa revistió distintas características, determinadas por los esquemas macroeconómicos vigentes en cada momento, lo cual repercutió -junto con otros factores- sobre los salarios reales y nominales. Así, la combinación de retraso cambiario con apertura comercial, característica de la convertibilidad, indujo un déficit sostenido de balanza comercial cuya corrección hubiera requerido una significativa contracción salarial que redujera el nivel de absorción interna. La persistencia de estas inconsistencias sólo fue posible debido al flujo constante de endeudamiento externo que caracterizó a gran parte de la década de los noventa.
    Keywords: Estructura de los Salarios; Balanza Comercial; Deuda Externa; Convertibilidad; Postconvertibilidad; Argentina;
    Date: 2013–08
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nmp:nuland:1833&r=lam
  5. By: Paulo Bastos (Research Department, Inter-American Development Bank, United States); Odd Rune Straume (Department of Economics, University of Minho)
    Abstract: We examine if an expansion in the supply of public preschool crowds-out private enrollment using rich data for municipalities in Brazil from 2000-2006, where federal transfers to local governments change discontinuously with given population thresholds. Results from a regression-discontinuity design reveal that larger federal transfers lead to a significant expansion of local public preschool services, but show no effects on the quantity or quality of private provision. These findings are consistent with a theory in which households differ in willingness-to-pay for preschool services, and private suppliers optimally adjust prices in response to an expansion of lower-quality, free-of-charge public supply.
    Keywords: Preschool education; private and public provision; crowding-out.
    JEL: D12 I21 I28 L21 O15
    Date: 2013
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nip:nipewp:16/2013&r=lam

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