New Economics Papers
on Central and South America
Issue of 2013‒09‒13
five papers chosen by

  1. Sovereign defaults, business cycles and economic growth in Latin America, 1870-2012 By Boonman, Tjeerd M.
  2. How unemployment insurance savings accounts affect employment duration: Evidence from Chile By Nagler, Paula
  3. Desigualdades intrarregionais na região nordeste: uma análise de decomposição espacial By Fernando Perobelli; Edson Domingues; Luiz Carlos Ribeiro
  4. The Effects of Drug Enforcement on Violence in Colombia 1999-2010: A Spatial Econometric Approach By Botero Degiovanni, Hernan
  5. Efectos de “ángeles caídos” en el mercado accionario colombiano: estudio de eventos del caso Interbolsa. By José E. Gómez-González; Luis Fernando Melo Velandia

  1. By: Boonman, Tjeerd M. (Groningen University)
    Abstract: Sovereign debt crises have regained attention since the recent crises in several European countries. This paper focuses on a particular aspect of the debt crisis literature: the impact of sovereign default on economic growth. Previous research agrees on the negative impact, but not on size and duration. We are particularly interested in the heterogeneity of crisis impacts: Why are some crises deeper and longer than others? And what is the role of business cycles? We analyze four Latin American countries (Argentina, Brazil, Chile and Mexico) for the period 1870-2012, covering 14 sovereign debt defaults. We find that most sovereign defaults start in recessions, and in unfavorable international circumstances. Economic growth is heavily affected in the year of the default and the year after. Then economic growth picks up, but recovery is far from smooth, including periods of recurrent negative growth. We observe strong heterogeneity in the impact, which we attribute to commodity price changes, economic growth and government expenditure in the run-up to the crisis.
    Date: 2013
  2. By: Nagler, Paula (UNU-MERIT / MGSoG)
    Abstract: The introduction of unemployment insurance savings accounts (UISA) in Chile in October 2002 brought in more comprehensive unemployment protection while decreasing the opportunity costs of job change. Being the first to empirically investigate the effect of UISA on employment duration, this paper examines (i) whether the introduction of UISA affected employment duration among formal private sector workers, and (ii) the magnitude of this effect. The analysis is performed on longitudinal social protection data and uses survival analysis techniques, including non-parametric, semi-parametric and parametric analysis, and competing-risk models. The paper finds that workers participating in the scheme show an increased hazard ratio of leaving employment, or accelerated time to employment termination. The effect is larger for workers becoming unemployed or inactive compared to workers changing jobs. The results provide strong support that the introduction of UISA led to shorter employment duration and higher mobility of the workforce in Chile.
    Keywords: Unemployment Insurance Savings Accounts, Employment Duration, Survival Analysis, Chile
    JEL: C41 J63 J64 J65
    Date: 2013
  3. By: Fernando Perobelli (FEA/UFJF); Edson Domingues (Cedeplar-UFMG); Luiz Carlos Ribeiro (Cedeplar-UFMG)
    Abstract: The aim of this paper is to investigate intraregional inequalities in the brazilian Northeast region, from the differentiation of its productive structure. For this, the analysis applies space decomposition inspired by Feldman et al. (1987) and adapted according to the proposed of Dietzenbacher et al. (2000) and Jackson and Dzikowski (2002). The database is the Input-Output Matrix of Northeast and States (GUILHOTO et al., 2010), base year 2004, with 111 economic sectors and 10 regions (9 northeast states and rest of Brazil). The main results showed that the final demand plays an important role in determining the product´s difference of the activities related to the Services segment, especially in the states of Bahia, Ceará and Pernambuco. On the other hand, the final demand is not responsible for differences in product among some agriculture and livestock activities, sectors linked to the food industry and the production of tobacco. Moreover, the final demand does not explain the differences in the production of virtually all activities of the states of Alagoas, Maranhão, Paraíba, Piauí, Sergipe and Rio Grande do Norte.
    Keywords: Input-output; spatial decomposition analysis; Northeast region.
    JEL: R15
    Date: 2013–08
  4. By: Botero Degiovanni, Hernan
    Abstract: In this paper paper, I use Mejia and Restrepo's(2011d} strategy to disentangle the causal relationship between drug enforcement and violence. To test this relationship, I use information on Colombian municipalities during the period 1999-2010. Due to technological reasons related to the quality of terrain, climate, and locational characteristics of the Colombian territory, cocaine production is more productive at low altitudes. Using the altitude of each municipality and distance from capital cities as sources of exogenous variation, I estimate the effect of drug enforcement on violence in Colombia. To control for a possible omitted-variable bias in the estimations, I run a Panel Data Spatial Durbin Model (SDM). Additionally, I construct a set of indices with comparable units of measure which allows me to determine which percentage of the Colombian violence data is explained by drug enforcement. The results indicate that the Colombian government's enforcement activities increased in 0.98% the homicide rate and in 1.24% the displacement rate and the war among drug dealers increased in 4.00% the homicide rate and 0.16% the displacement rate in the period 1999-2010.
    Keywords: War, Criminal Law, Enforcement, Drugs
    JEL: H56 K14 K42 L65
    Date: 2013–09–01
  5. By: José E. Gómez-González; Luis Fernando Melo Velandia
    Abstract: En este documento realizamos un estudio de eventos para estudiar los efectos del anuncio de problemas de liquidez y toma de posesión por parte de la Superintendencia Financiera de Colombia de la firma comisionista de bolsa Interbolsa S.A. en noviembre de 2012 sobre el rendimiento de las acciones transadas en la Bolsa de Valores de Colombia. Utilizamos datos diarios y diferentes ventanas de tiempo para el evento, y estimamos los retornos usando tres modelos alternativos (CAPM, CAPM con tasa libre de riesgo y modelo de tres factores) en los que modelamos la varianza condicional usando un modelo EGARCH (1,1). En general, encontramos que el evento afectó significativamente los rendimientos de las firmas listadas en la Bolsa en todos los modelos y para todas las ventanas de tiempo utilizadas.
    Keywords: Estudio de eventos, Bolsa de valores, Comisionista de bolsa. Classification JEL: G11, G12, G14
    Date: 2013–09

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