nep-lam New Economics Papers
on Central and South America
Issue of 2013‒03‒09
nine papers chosen by
Maximo Rossi
University of the Republic

  1. Social spending, taxes and income redistribution in Uruguay By Bucheli, Marisa; Lustig, Nora; Rossi, Maximo; Amabile, Florencia
  2. Effects of innovation on employment in Latin America By Crespi, Gustavo; Tacsir, Ezequiel
  3. Forecasting Latin-American yield curves: An artificial neural network approach By Daniel Vela
  4. The Potential Impact of Brazil’s Transportation Efficiencies on World Cotton Trade By Salin, Delmy L.
  5. The Rise in Female Participation in Colombia: Fertility, Marital Status or Education? By Diego Amador; Raquel Bernal; Ximena Peña
  6. Mujer y movilidad social By Ximena Peña; Juan Camilo Cárdenas; Hugo Ñopo; Jorge Luis Castañeda
  7. Gasto Público y Movilidad y Equidad Social By Andrés Escobar; Mauricio Olivera
  8. Las externalidades de los Programas de Transferencias Condicionadas sobre el crimen: el caso de Familias en Acción en Bogotá By Adriana Camacho; Daniel Mejía
  9. Don't make war, make elections franchise extension and violence in XIXth-century Colombia By Leopoldo Fergusson; Juan F. Vargas

  1. By: Bucheli, Marisa; Lustig, Nora; Rossi, Maximo; Amabile, Florencia
    Abstract: How much redistribution does Uruguay accomplish through social spending and taxes? How progressive are revenue collection and social spending? A standard fiscal incidence analysis shows that Uruguay achieves a nontrivial reduction in inequality and poverty when all taxes and transfers are combined. In comparison with five other countries in Latin America, it ranks first (poverty reduction) and second (inequality reduction), and first in terms of poverty reduction effectiveness and third in terms of overall (including transfers in-kind) inequality reduction effectiveness. Direct taxes are progressive and indirect taxes are regressive. Social spending on direct transfers, contributory pensions, education and health is quite progressive in absolute terms except for tertiary education, which is almost neutral in relative terms.
    Keywords: Rural Poverty Reduction,Emerging Markets,Debt Markets,Services&Transfers to Poor,Economic Theory&Research
    Date: 2013–03–01
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:6380&r=lam
  2. By: Crespi, Gustavo (Competitiveness and Innovation Division, Inter-American Development Bank); Tacsir, Ezequiel (UNU-MERIT/MGSoG)
    Abstract: This study examines the impact of process and product innovation on employment growth and composition in Argentina, Chile, Costa Rica, and Uruguay using micro data from innovation surveys. Based on the model put forward by Harrison et al. (1998), employment growth is related to process innovations and to the growth of sales separately due to innovative and unchanged products. Results show that compensation effects are pervasive and that the introduction of new products is associated with employment growth at the firm level. No evidence of displacement effects due to the introduction of product innovations was observed. With respect to the impact of innovation on employment composition, there is scant evidence of a skill bias, although product innovation is more complementary to skilled than to unskilled labour.
    Keywords: innovation, employment, developing countries, Latin America, innovation surveys
    JEL: O12 O14 O31 O33 O40 J21
    Date: 2013
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dgr:unumer:2013001&r=lam
  3. By: Daniel Vela
    Abstract: This document explores the predictive power of the yield curves in Latin America (Colombia, Mexico, Peru and Chile) taking into account the factors set by the specifications of Nelson & Siegel and Svensson. Several forecasting methodologies are contrasted: an autoregressive model, a vector autoregressive model, artificial neural networks on each individual factor, and artificial neural networks on all factors that explain the yield curve. The out-of-sample performance of the fitting models improves with the neural networks in the one-month-ahead forecast along all studied yield curves. Moreover, the three factor model developed by Nelson & Siegel proves to be the best choice for out-of-sample forecasting. Finally, the success of the cross variable interaction strongly depends on the selected yield curve.
    Date: 2013–02–28
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000094:010502&r=lam
  4. By: Salin, Delmy L.
    Abstract: This paper is a summary of: Rafael de Farias Costa, C. Parr Rosson, III, and Flynn J. Adcock, Transportation Infrastructure in Brazil: Impacts and Implications for Global Cotton Trade, Texas A&M, CNAS 2012-0. May 2012. Web. <http://cnas.tamu.edu/ Publications/Brazil Cotton Transportation Report June 2012.pdf> Brazil is the third largest cotton exporter after the United States and Uzbekistan. Cotton production in Brazil expanded from 2 million bales in the late 1990s to about 9.3 million bales in 2011. In 2007, Brazil began a comprehensive logistical investment plan to increase competitiveness in the world agricultural market. To increase transportation efficiencies, the Brazilian Government wants to reduce export route distances and port congestion by shifting exports from the southern ports to the north and northeast port regions. Texas AgriLIFE Research scientists estimated the impact of Brazil improvements in transportation infrastructure on cotton production, prices, and exports. Transportation costs for different regions within Brazil were estimated to reflect movements from mill to port. An origin-destination matrix of the Brazilian cotton industry that tracks cotton flows within the country was developed and validated. Findings indicate that a 2- to 3-percent transportation cost reduction would not have a significant impact on the world cotton trade. However, the United States may benefit slightly Brazil main cotton export routes from a 2-percent cost reduction, increasing exports by 640 bales, raising prices 2 cents a bale, and growing revenue by $457,900. If transportation costs drop by 10 percent, Brazilian exports could increase by 64,830 bales, raising prices by $3.61 per bale and increasing revenue by $27.8 million. India and the United States might lose market share. U.S. losses could include 4,490 fewer bales exported at a price of $0.28 less per bale and lower cotton export revenues of $5.7 million.
    Keywords: cotton, trade, shipping, export, Brazil, transportation, Agribusiness, Agricultural Finance, International Relations/Trade, Marketing,
    Date: 2013–01
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:uamstr:145637&r=lam
  5. By: Diego Amador; Raquel Bernal; Ximena Peña
    Abstract: Colombia has experienced a secular increase in the labor participation of urban women, going from nearly 47% in 1984 to 65% in 2006. We decompose the evolution of participation into changes in the composition of the population and changes in the participation rates by groups (defined according to the variables that appear most relevant: educational attainment, fertility and marital status). The increase in participation is driven by the increase in the participation rate of married or cohabiting women and women with low educational attainment. Fertility status appears to be less important. Changes in the population composition by educational attainment are also relevant in explaining the increase in participation. However, changes in composition by marital status or fertility are second order effects.
    Date: 2013–02–06
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000089:010551&r=lam
  6. By: Ximena Peña; Juan Camilo Cárdenas; Hugo Ñopo; Jorge Luis Castañeda
    Abstract: En este documento se presenta un conjunto de recomendaciones de política para generar una efectiva igualdad de oportunidades para hombres y mujeres y, de esta forma, mejorar las dinámicas de movilidad social en Colombia. Para esto, inicialmente se explora la evidencia existente sobre la situación de la mujer en la sociedad colombiana y se hace un análisis de mejores prácticas nacionales e internacionales para la mejora de tal situación. El análisis sigue con una evaluación de dimensiones del bienestar de las personas y sus hogares, identificando las dimensiones y mercados en que se manifiestan las desigualdades asociadas al sexo de los individuos para diferentes grupos etarios. Dentro de las recomendaciones, siguiendo un enfoque de ciclo de vida, se incorporan tanto políticas para aliviar las desigualdades acumulativas en el corto plazo como medidas que permitan construir las bases de un cambio cultural más duradero más allá de las propuestas inmediatas de corrección de las brechas. Esto último es un reto, ya que las fuentes identificadas de desventaja femenina están en parte en el ámbito de lo privado particularmente al interior de los hogares.
    Date: 2013–01–24
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000089:010498&r=lam
  7. By: Andrés Escobar; Mauricio Olivera
    Abstract: La medición del gasto público social tiene importantes inconvenientes en el caso colombiano, problema que se ve reforzado por el hecho de que la discusión política alrededor del tema es escasa y, por ende, poco exigente. No obstante lo anterior, con base en la información disponible, puede decirse que el impacto del gasto público social ha sido mixto. La focalización aún sufre problemas de inclusión y de exclusión, y sólo hasta ahora empieza a mostrar una relación más estrecha con el nivel de pobreza. En el contexto de la reforma constitucional a las regalías, debe hacerse un esfuerzo por sistematizar la recolección de información sobre gasto público social a nivel regional. Palabras Claves: Clasificación JEL:
    Date: 2013–02–04
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000089:010550&r=lam
  8. By: Adriana Camacho; Daniel Mejía
    Abstract: En este trabajo estudiamos los efectos indirectos del mayor Programa de Transferencias Condicionadas (PTC) en Colombia, Familias en Acción, sobre los niveles de criminalidad en el área urbana de la ciudad de Bogotá. Para realizar este estudio combinamos las siguientes dos fuentes de información: el Sistema de Información de beneficiarios de Familias en Acción (SIFA) y los reportes administrativos de criminalidad de la Policía Nacional. En el estudio evaluamos dos posibles canales por los cuales Familias en Acción puede afectar los niveles de criminalidad. Por un lado, el efecto ingreso, para el cual explotamos la variación existente en las fechas de pago del programa. Nuestros resultados indican que a través de este efecto el programa reduce el crimen a la propiedad. Específicamente, encontramos que las transferencias del programa reducen la tasa de hurto a personas y de hurto a vehículos en 7.2% y 1.3%, respetivamente, en los días posteriores a las trasferencias de Familias en Acción. Por otro lado, estudiamos si las condicionalidades de asistencia escolar como requisito para obtener los subsidios que otorga el programa “incapacitan” (o impiden) que los adolescentes se vinculen a actividades delictivas. Para estimar dicho efecto hacemos uso de las fechas de vacaciones del sistema educativo y las fechas de los paros del principal sindicato de trabajadores del sector educación (FECODE). Nuestros resultados indican que el programa Familias en Acción no tiene efectos sobre la criminalidad a través del efecto incapacitación. Con esto, los resultados muestran que las transferencias que otorga el programa Familias en Acción disminuyen el crimen (efecto ingreso), pero el efecto a través de la incapacitación de los adolescentes de vincularse a actividades delictivas no parece operar.
    Date: 2013–02–07
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000089:010552&r=lam
  9. By: Leopoldo Fergusson; Juan F. Vargas
    Abstract: This paper studies the effect of strengthening democracy, as captured by an increase in voting rights, on the incidence of violent civil conflict in nineteenth-century Colombia. Empirically studying the relationship between democracy and conflict is challenging, not only because of conceptual problems in defining and measuring democracy, but also because political institutions and violence are jointly determined. We take advantage of an experiment of history to examine the impact of one simple, measurable dimension of democracy (the size of the franchise) on conflict, while at the same time attempting to overcome the identification problem. In 1853, Colombia established universal male suffrage. Using a simple difference-indifferences specification at the municipal level, we find that municipalities where more voters were enfranchised relative to their population experienced fewer violent political battles while the reform was in effect. The results are robust to including a number of additional controls. Moreover, we investigate the potential mechanisms driving the results. In particular, we look at which components of the proportion of new voters in 1853 explain the results, and we examine if results are stronger in places with more political competition and state capacity. We interpret our findings as suggesting that violence in nineteenth-century Colombia was a technology for political elites to compete for the rents from power, and that democracy constituted an alternative way to compete which substituted violence.
    Date: 2013–03–03
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000092:010545&r=lam

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