New Economics Papers
on Central and South America
Issue of 2013‒01‒19
fifteen papers chosen by



  1. The Expansion of Cash Transfers in Chile and its Challenges: Ethical Family Income By Simone Cecchini; Claudia Robles; Luis Hernán Vargas
  2. Social Protection in Ecuador: A New Vision for Inclusive Growth By Ryan Nehring
  3. The Middle-Income Trap: Comparing Asian and Latin American Experiences By Anna Jankowska; Arne Nagengast; José Ramón Perea
  4. Monetary Transfers for Children and Adolescents in Argentina: Characteristics and Coverage of a ?System? with Three Components By Fabio Bertranou; Roxana Maurizio
  5. The Expansion of Non-Contributory Transfers in Uruguay in Recent Years By Verónica Amarante; Andrea Vigorito
  6. The Climate Justice Discourse in Brazil: Potential and Perspective By Bruno Milanez; Igor F. Fonseca
  7. Recursos Naturales y Crecimiento Económico en Colombia: ¿Maldición de los Recursos? By Jacobo Campo Robledo; W. Andrés Sanabria Parrado
  8. Vulnerability of Brazilian Megacities to Climate Change: The São Paulo Metropolitan Region By Carlos Afonso Nobre; Andrea Ferraz Young; Paulo Hilário Nascimento Saldiva; José Antônio Marengo Orsini; Antonio Donato Nobre; Agostinho Tadashi Ogura; Osório Thomaz; Guillermo Oswaldo Obregón Párraga; Gustavo Costa M. da Silva; Maria Valverde; André Carvalho Silveira; Grasiela de Oliveira Rodrigues
  9. Testing the Goodwin growth-cycle macroeconomic dynamics in Brazil By N. J. Moura Jr; Marcelo B. Ribeiro
  10. Aportaciones compartidas para pensiones en Colombia, Mexico y Peru: Experiencias y perspectivas By Luis Carranza; Angel Melguizo; David Tuesta
  11. Oportunidades and Bolsa Familia: a Comparative Perspective of their Evolution By Fabio Veras Soares
  12. Regression Discontinuity Impacts with an Implicit Index: Evaluating El Salvador?s Comunidades Solidarias Rurales Transfer Programme By Alan de Brauw
  13. What is Happening with El Salvador?s CCT Programmes? By Fabio Veras Soares
  14. Indicators for Assessing the Vulnerability of Smallholder Farming to Climate Change: the Case of Brazil?s Semi-Arid Northeastern Region By Diego Pereira Lindoso; Juliana Dalboni Rocha; Nathan Debortoli; Izabel Cavalcanti I. Parente; Flávio Eiró; Marcel Bursztyn; Saulo Rodrigues Filho
  15. Trade Barriers in Policies that Regulate Greenhouse Gases By Ronaldo Seroa da Motta

  1. By: Simone Cecchini (Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC)); Claudia Robles (ECLAC/CEPAL); Luis Hernán Vargas (ECLAC/CEPAL)
    Abstract: In the last decade Chile has attracted renewed interest for its innovative social protection policies and programmes, such as the Chile Solidario system to overcome extreme poverty (launched in 2002), the special plan for Universal Access with Explicit Guarantees (Plan de Acceso Universal con Garantías Explícitas, AUGE) to ensure access to healthcare (2004), the Basic Solidarity Pension (Pensión Básica Solidaria, PBS)?the cornerstone of the 2008 pension reform?and the system of Chile Grows With You (Chile Crece Contigo, 2006) (Robles, 2011). These programmes were driven by the centre-left government Coalition of Parties for Democracy (Concertación de Partidos por la Democracia), which governed the country from its return to democracy in 1990 until 2010. (...)
    Keywords: The Expansion of Cash Transfers in Chile and its Challenges: Ethical Family Income
    Date: 2012–08
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipc:pbrief:26&r=lam
  2. By: Ryan Nehring (IPC-IG)
    Abstract: Like many new Latin American governments, Ecuador is revamping social spending and developing a specific strategy to enhance social protection and alleviate poverty. The country has already made and continues to make important strides in the implementation of inclusive social policies to combat inequality while supporting productive employment opportunities. Notably, the country?s Conditional Cash Transfer (CCT) programme, the Human Development Grant (Bono de Desarrollo Humano, BDH), has been highlighted as an innovation in effective targeting and substantial coverage. Since the election of Rafael Correa as President in 2006, recent changes have ushered in new development strategies and the adoption of a national development plan (Buen Vivir in Spanish; Sumak Kawsay in Quichua) for four years (2009?2013). Likewise, the new constitution drafted in 2008 by the Constitutional Assembly passed with over 80 per cent of the popular vote and created a new constitutional foundation for the expansion of innovative social protection policies and a fundamentally new approach for more inclusive economic growth. (...)
    Keywords: Social Protection in Ecuador: A New Vision for Inclusive Growth
    Date: 2012–08
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipc:pbrief:28&r=lam
  3. By: Anna Jankowska; Arne Nagengast; José Ramón Perea
    Abstract: <ul> <li>Chinese Taipei; Hong Kong, China; Korea and Singapore (the East Asian Newly Industrialised Countries or NICs) have been successful in attaining income convergence with high-income countries while Latin American countries remain caught in the Middle-Income Trap.</li> <li>The East Asian NICs pursued export-led growth by targeting strategic industries which facilitated gradual diversification and upgrading into new products that required similar skills and inputs.</li> <li>Comparing the experience of the NICs to Latin American economies reveals that successful diversification and upgrading of a country’s export structure requires coherent and complimentary policies in the areas of education, infrastructure, innovation and access to finance.</li></ul>
    Date: 2012–05
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:devaac:96-en&r=lam
  4. By: Fabio Bertranou (Organización Internacional del Trabajo); Roxana Maurizio (Universidad Nacional de General Sarmiento y CONICET)
    Abstract: In 2009 Argentina established a new programme of transfers for children and adolescents, Asignación Universal por Hijo (Universal Child Allowance ? AUH), that was aimed at those families engaged in the informal economy, inactive adults without unemployment insurance, unemployed people without any social security payments and those working in domestic service. This non-contributory programme is an addition to those programmes already in existence: a contributory family allowance (AFC) and a tax deduction from income tax (known as the ?tax on earnings?) for each child (ACF). With the new programme, coverage was extended substantively in both quantitative and qualitative terms, taking over the role that was previously played by the Heads of Household Programme and the Families Programme. (...)
    Keywords: Monetary Transfers for Children and Adolescents in Argentina: Characteristics and Coverage of a ?System? with Three Components
    Date: 2012–08
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipc:pbrief:30&r=lam
  5. By: Verónica Amarante (ECLAC/CEPAL); Andrea Vigorito (Universidad de la República, Uruguay)
    Abstract: During the first half of the 20th century, Uruguay was able to establish an institutional system of universal social policies in the areas of education, labour and health which involved the coverage of most of the population (Filgueira, 1994). In the context of social protection, a system of contributory cash-based transfers was created which aimed to protect workers in the formal sector?and through them their families?and to provide them with an adequate retirement to replace their income. With regard to non-contributory transfers, in 1919 a social pension scheme for elderly and disabled people was created, targeting those people over 70 years of age considered socially vulnerable. In 1942 the system of contributory Family Allowances (Asignaciones Familiares) came into force, consisting of monthly cash benefits to workers in the formal sector with children. (...)
    Keywords: The Expansion of Non-Contributory Transfers in Uruguay in Recent Years
    Date: 2012–08
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipc:pbrief:29&r=lam
  6. By: Bruno Milanez (Universidade Federal de Juiz de Fora); Igor F. Fonseca (IPEA)
    Abstract: Milanez and Fonseca (2011) argue that the climate justice discourse has not been adopted by the media, society or the communities affected by extreme climate events in Brazil. The climate justice discourse has been adapted from the concept of environmental justice and created from the idea that the impacts of climate change affect different social groups in various ways and intensities. (?)
    Keywords: The Climate Justice Discourse in Brazil: Potential and Perspective
    Date: 2012–05
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipc:opager:162&r=lam
  7. By: Jacobo Campo Robledo; W. Andrés Sanabria Parrado
    Abstract: La “maldición de los recursos naturales” es un término acuñado por Auty (1993) y reforzado por los resultados de Sachs y Warner (1995, 1999) para explicar por qué países con una mayor riqueza relativa de recursos naturales tienden a crecer a tasas inferiores que los países que tienen menos recursos naturales. Este documento estudia de manera empírica la existencia de una “maldición de los recursos” en la economía colombiana, para tal efecto, se aplica análisis de series de tiempo, encontrando evidencia para afirmar la paradoja, explicada por la exportación de café, petróleo y área de tierra destinada a la agricultura para el periodo comprendido entre 1970 – 2010.
    Date: 2012–12–30
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000444:010352&r=lam
  8. By: Carlos Afonso Nobre (Senior Researcher at the Center for Earth System Science (CCST/INPE)); Andrea Ferraz Young (Researcher at State University of Campinas (UNICAMP)); Paulo Hilário Nascimento Saldiva (Professor at the Medicine Faculty at University of São Paulo (FMUSP)); José Antônio Marengo Orsini (Senior Researcher at CCST/INPE); Antonio Donato Nobre (Researcher at the National Institute for Research in Amazon (INPA)); Agostinho Tadashi Ogura (Researcher at the Institute for Technological Research (IPT)); Osório Thomaz (Researcher at the Institute for Technological Research (IPT)); Guillermo Oswaldo Obregón Párraga (Researcher at the National Institute for Space Research (INPE)); Gustavo Costa M. da Silva (INPE); Maria Valverde (INPE); André Carvalho Silveira (INPE); Grasiela de Oliveira Rodrigues (INPE)
    Abstract: A major concern of contemporary society in relation to future climate projections relates to possible changes in the frequencies and intensities of extreme weather events. Megacities such as São Paulo have numerous social and environmental problems associated with patterns of development and transformation of space, which have been aggravated by increases in temperature and intensification of extreme weather events. (?)
    Keywords: Vulnerability of Brazilian Megacities to Climate Change: The São Paulo Metropolitan Region
    Date: 2012–05
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipc:opager:161&r=lam
  9. By: N. J. Moura Jr (Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estat\'\istica - IBGE, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil); Marcelo B. Ribeiro (Instituto de F\'\isica, Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro, Brazil)
    Abstract: This paper discusses the empirical validity of Goodwin's (1967) macroeconomic model of growth with cycles by assuming that the individual income distribution of the Brazilian society is described by the Gompertz-Pareto distribution (GPD). This is formed by the combination of the Gompertz curve, representing the overwhelming majority of the population (~99%), with the Pareto power law, representing the tiny richest part (~1%). In line with Goodwin's original model, we identify the Gompertzian part with the workers and the Paretian component with the class of capitalists. Since the GPD parameters are obtained for each year and the Goodwin macroeconomics is a time evolving model, we use previously determined, and further extended here, Brazilian GPD parameters, as well as unemployment data, to study the time evolution of these quantities in Brazil from 1981 to 2009 by means of the Goodwin dynamics. This is done in the original Goodwin model and an extension advanced by Desai et al. (2006). As far as Brazilian data is concerned, our results show partial qualitative and quantitative agreement with both models in the studied time period, although the original one provides better data fit. Nevertheless, both models fall short of a good empirical agreement as they predict single center cycles which were not found in the data. We discuss the specific points where the Goodwin dynamics must be improved in order to provide a more realistic representation of the dynamics of economic systems.
    Date: 2013–01
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1301.1090&r=lam
  10. By: Luis Carranza; Angel Melguizo; David Tuesta
    Abstract: Las cotizaciones compartidas en sistemas de aportaciones definidas van ganando popularidad tanto en paises ricos como pobres como un mecanismo prometedor para reducir las carencias de participacion en los sistemas formales de pensiones. Las cotizaciones compartidas por los empleadores, por el Estado o por ambos, a sistemas de contribuciones definidas se utilizan solas o junto con otro tipo de actuaciones para estimular la participacion en planes de pensiones. Aunque sigue siendo demasiado pronto para extraer conclusiones definitivas o directrices con las que orientar las politicas publicas, este capitulo ofrece un resumen de la informacion actualmente disponible que se presenta en este volumen y que apunta hacia algunas observaciones preliminares sobre la posible utilizacion de este modelo. Esta experiencia, que deriva en su mayor parte de paises con ingresos altos y que ahora se esta complementando con algunas primeras experiencias en otros escenarios, sugiere que las cotizaciones compartidas son moderadamente eficaces a la hora de aumentar la participacion en los programas, pero en general no es posible medir su eficacia en cuanto a la recaudacion de aportaciones y, por tanto, a los niveles de prestaciones futuras. Otras actuaciones, orientadas cada vez mas por lecciones extraidas de la economia y las finanzas conductistas, pueden resultar mas eficaces y normalmente mucho menos costosas, lo cual nos ayuda a entender algunas de las diferencias de los resultados obtenidos en los diferentes paises. Todavia no sabemos hasta que punto es extrapolable la experiencia de los paises con ingresos altos hacia otras latitudes; es preciso realizar una evaluacion mucho mayor para poder alcanzar conclusiones definitivas.
    Keywords: pensiones, aportaciones definidas, aportaciones compartidas, cobertura de pensiones, matching contributions
    JEL: G23 H55 J32
    Date: 2012–12
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bbv:wpaper:1234&r=lam
  11. By: Fabio Veras Soares (International Poverty Centre)
    Abstract: Soares (2012) argues that differences in the original design of Oportunidades and Bolsa Família as well as the distinct role these programmes play in the broader social protection systems of México and Brazil respectively are key in helping illuminate the nature of the incremental changes that both programmes have experienced over the years. (...)
    Keywords: Oportunidades and Bolsa Familia: a Comparative Perspective of their Evolution
    Date: 2012–11
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipc:opager:177&r=lam
  12. By: Alan de Brauw (International Food Policy Research Institute)
    Abstract: IFPRI and the Fundación Salvadoreña para El Desarrollo Económico y Social (FUSADES) collaborated between 2007 and 2010 to evaluate the impacts of the Comunidades Solidarias Rurales (CSR) programme in El Salvador. CSR includes two types of conditional transfers: an education and a health transfer. Households are eligible for the education transfer if they have a member between six and 15 years of age who has not yet completed primary school; and for the health transfer if any pregnant women lived in the household at the time of the inception census or any children aged up to five years live in the household. The education transfer is conditional on school enrolment and attendance; the health transfer is conditional on growth monitoring check-ups, receiving timely vaccinations, and antenatal monitoring check-ups for pregnant women. The transfer amount is US$15 per month per household for the education or health transfer, and $20 per month if households are eligible for both types. Payments do not vary by the number of eligible children in the household. (?)
    Keywords: Regression Discontinuity Impacts with an Implicit Index: Evaluating El Salvador?s Comunidades Solidarias Rurales Transfer Programme
    Date: 2012–08
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipc:opager:167&r=lam
  13. By: Fabio Veras Soares (International Poverty Centre)
    Abstract: El Salvador?s Red Solidaria was designed in 2005 as a Conditional Cash Transfer (CCT) programme with the traditional objectives of short-term poverty alleviation and incentives for investment in human capital. In addition to the CCT component, it had two other components: one related to improving the supply of social services and infrastructure, and another related to increasing the productivity and diversification of the income sources of poor families (Britto, 2007). (?)
    Keywords: What is Happening with El Salvador?s CCT Programmes?
    Date: 2012–08
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipc:opager:168&r=lam
  14. By: Diego Pereira Lindoso (University of Brasilia); Juliana Dalboni Rocha (University of Brasilia); Nathan Debortoli (University of Brasilia); Izabel Cavalcanti I. Parente (University of Brasilia); Flávio Eiró (University of Brasilia); Marcel Bursztyn (University of Brasilia); Saulo Rodrigues Filho (University of Brasilia)
    Abstract: Political uncertainties about the global capacity to keep greenhouse gases within safe concentration limits along with new evidence from science showing that some degree of climate change is unavoidable have drawn international attention to the urgency of considering adaptation measures as important as mitigation actions. As a result, many efforts have been made to provide decision-makers with integrated systems of vulnerability assessment that can guide policy action towards mainstreaming adaptation on the governmental development agenda. (?)
    Keywords: Indicators for Assessing the Vulnerability of Smallholder Farming to Climate Change: the Case of Brazil?s Semi-Arid Northeastern Region
    Date: 2012–05
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipc:opager:163&r=lam
  15. By: Ronaldo Seroa da Motta (IPEA)
    Abstract: The Durban and Copenhagen Accords are not a treaty. Thus, the national commitments reported therein to achieve the 2°C trajectory, even if sufficient, will not be mandatory or binding under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). In brief, there is no new global agreement in which national mitigation efforts are recognised by the UNFCCC and that points to an effective reduction of emissions in line with what science recommends as necessary. (?)
    Keywords: Trade Barriers in Policies that Regulate Greenhouse Gases
    Date: 2012–05
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipc:opager:160&r=lam

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