New Economics Papers
on Central and South America
Issue of 2012‒05‒22
ten papers chosen by

  1. Flujos de capital y política fiscal en las economías emergentes de América Latina By Ignacio Lozano; Ligia Alba Melo B.; Jorge Enrique Ramos F.
  2. Independent Advisory Group on Sustainability: Final Report to the Inter-American Development Bank By Inter-American Development Bank (IDB)
  3. Goals Met or Just Empty Promises? First Version of the Democratic Security Policy in Colombia By Gerson Javier Pérez V.
  4. Develando econométricamente los impactos del Transantiago en la contaminación atmosférica de Santiago de Chile By Eugenio Figueroa; Andrés Gómez-Lobo; Pablo Jorquera; Felipe Labrín
  5. The Political Economy of Distribution and Growth in Chile By Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel
  6. Fiscal Policy for Commodity Exporting Countries: Chile's Experience By Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel
  7. Female Labor Force Participation and Informal Care of Adults: Evidence for a middle-income country By David Bravo; Esteban Puentes
  8. Fiscal Incidence, Fiscal Mobility and the Poor: A New Approach By Nora Lustig; Sean Higgins
  9. Empleo y estabilidad macroeconómica real: El rol de los flujos financieros en América Latina By Ricardo Ffrench-Davis
  10. Inequality of Opportunities and Long Term Earnings Measures: Evidence for Chile By Dante Contreras; Osvaldo Larrañaga; Esteban Puentes; Tomás Rau

  1. By: Ignacio Lozano; Ligia Alba Melo B.; Jorge Enrique Ramos F.
    Abstract: En este documento se evalúa la respuesta de la política fiscal ante los choques de los flujos de capital registrados durante las dos últimas décadas en seis economías emergentes de América Latina: Argentina, Brasil, Chile, Colombia, México y Perú. Con base en la caracterización de los diferentes episodios de entradas y salidas súbitas de capital y en los resultados de un modelo de datos de panel con variables instrumentales, se concluye que no hubo respuestas directas de las autoridades fiscales frente a los choques de los flujos. Sin embargo, la evidencia también sugiere que para el conjunto de países, se presentó una reacción fiscal indirecta de naturaleza pro-cíclica, al impacto que los flujos de capital produjeron sobre la actividad económica. Este tipo de respuesta pudo cambiar a partir de la crisis financiera global de 2008, cuando varios gobiernos adoptaron posturas contra-cíclicas, por los mejores fundamentales macroeconómicos
    Keywords: Flujos de Capitales, IED, Política Fiscal, Ciclos Económicos Reales. Classification JEL: F20, F21, E32, E62.
    Date: 2012–04
  2. By: Inter-American Development Bank (IDB)
    Abstract: The Independent Advisory Group on Sustainability (IAG) is pleased to submit this final report to the Board of Executive Directors and Management of the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB). In keeping with our mandate, the Advisory Group undertook a strategic review of the Bank's capacity to address critical environmental and social issues effecting sustainable development in Latin America and the Caribbean through its Environment and Safeguards Compliance Policy (OP703). Our findings and recommendations are rooted in a deep appreciation of the Bank's commitment to fostering environmentally sustainable growth, social equity, and the reduction of poverty in Latin America and the Caribbean and of the historic role the Bank has played as a leading development partner to its member countries.
    Keywords: Environment & Natural Resources, Private Sector :: CSR, Institutional Policy Background Paper
    Date: 2011–02
  3. By: Gerson Javier Pérez V.
    Abstract: Exploiting spatial and temporal variations in the number of seizures from criminal organizations, I estimate regional fixed effects models of the increase in the number of properties confiscated on the main crime rates. From 2002 security strategies changed, and as a result, the effects on crime rates are mostly large, negative and significant. There was a clear reduction in crimes commonly committed by organized criminals, including guerrillas, paramilitaries and drug-traffickers, such as auto-theft, terrorism, terrestrial piracy, and kidnappings. In contrast, crimes usually committed by common criminals, such as street robberies and burglaries were unaffected by the new security policy.
    Keywords: Crime; security policies; regional analysis Classification JEL: K1, H5, R5.
    Date: 2012–03
  4. By: Eugenio Figueroa; Andrés Gómez-Lobo; Pablo Jorquera; Felipe Labrín
    Abstract: Este trabajo estima el impacto que tuvo la reforma integral del sistema de transporte público en Santiago de Chile, denominada Transantiago, sobre la contaminación atmosférica en dicha ciudad. Un aporte del trabajo es que muestra cómo, utilizando un modelo econométrico y datos diarios de contaminación, develar técnicamente los impactos ambientales de un programa público que son difíciles de aislar y medir por la existencia de algunas variables confundentes. Se concluye que el Transantiago disminuyó en 3,9 µg/m3 el promedio diario de concentraciones de MP10 en la ciudad, provocando un ahorro que se estima en US$ 200 millones al año en el escenario medio, de los cuales un 12% corresponden al ahorro de gastos en atenciones públicas de salud.
    Date: 2012–04
  5. By: Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel
    Abstract: This paper addresses the following questions on the political economy of distribution and growth in Chile. How does Chile compare to the world in government size, income distribution, and per capita GDP? Which is the relation between income distribution, government size and structure, and growth in a political-economy model of endogenous growth? How do changes in income distribution affect growth through changes in the size of government, in a model calibrated for Chile? Which are the dynamics of distribution and growth, when they are shaped by political leadership, the policy-making process, and the quality of institutions and policies? Under which conditions of such dynamics does a non-monotonic relation between income distribution and growth emerge, akin to the Kuznets curve? How do Chile’s leadership, policy-making process, and reforms affect equity and growth? Which are the political economy requirements for successful adoption of ten key reforms to support growth and equity in Chile?
    Keywords: Fiscal Income distribution, economic growth, political economy
    JEL: O15 O40 P16
    Date: 2012
  6. By: Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel
    Abstract: Fiscal policy regimes based on a developed fiscal institutions and fiscal rules are increasingly adopted by governments that aim at stronger fiscal policy sustainability, more output stability, and more resilience of public finances to political pressure. This paper describes and evaluates fiscal policy institutions and particularly the fiscal rule in Chile. This commodity-exporting country is unique by having in place since 2001 a cyclically-adjusted government balance rule that takes account of both GDP shocks and mineral export price shocks. The paper starts by assessing the overall institutional set-up for fiscal policy in Chile in international comparison. Then it focuses on the fiscal rule, its changes over time, and its budgetary consequences and macroeconomic effects. By and large, the rule is found to have contributed to fiscal sustainability and credibility, and to macroeconomic stability. Yet the rule also presents shortcomings in its institutional set-up and application to the budget. Therefore the paper presents proposals for reform, following the recommendations made by the Advisory Council for the Design of Fiscal Policy in early 2011. The final section of the paper draws policy lessons from international experience and the Chilean case on institutional reform of fiscal policy and adoption of fiscal rules in commodity-exporting countries.
    Keywords: Fiscal regimes, fiscal stabilization, fiscal institutions
    JEL: E61 E62 E63
    Date: 2012
  7. By: David Bravo; Esteban Puentes
    Abstract: The provision of elderly care is an issue of increasing importance in Latin American countries because of a aging population, decrease in household size, and increased complexity of care. Thus, it is important to analyze how the provision of informal care of other adults affects the welfare of women since they are usually responsible for this type of care. We analyze in this paper the relationship between providing informal care to adults and labor outcomes for a middle-income country with a rapidly aging population. This is one of the first studies to focus on middle-income countries and in Latin America. The results of this research show the importance of considering the endogeneity that exists between informal care and female labor participation. A partial correlation analysis shows a strong negative relationship between providing care and labor participation, however, when we use methods for endogeneity correction, the correlation does not hold. Additionally, we found that poor households are more likely to be involved in care giving activities, and that the presence of a spouse reduces the likelihood of provision of care.
    Date: 2012–04
  8. By: Nora Lustig (Department of Economics, Tulane University); Sean Higgins (Department of Economics, Tulane University)
    Abstract: Taxes and transfers can have significant impacts on poverty and inequality. All standard measures are by definition anonymous in the sense that we do not know the identity of winners and losers. That a given combination of taxes and transfers makes some of the poor poorer, however, may be important information to incorporate into a fiscal incidence analysis. The directional mobility literature provides a useful framework to identify which individuals are adversely/favorably impacted by a particular policy. This paper introduces a "fiscal mobility matrix" to identify winners and losers. We show that taxes and transfers can lower inequality and poverty (including the severity of poverty) but still make a subgroup of the poor worse off. We use Brazilian data to illustrate how indirect taxes make around 11 percent of the non-poor poor, 15 percent of the moderate poor extremely poor, and 4 percent of the extremely poor "ultra-poor" despite any cash transfers they receive, even when standard poverty and inequality indicators decline and overall taxes are progressive.
    Keywords: fiscal incidence, taxes and transfers, inequality, poverty, redistribution, mobility
    JEL: D31 H22 H53 I32 I38
    Date: 2012–04
  9. By: Ricardo Ffrench-Davis
    Date: 2012–03
  10. By: Dante Contreras; Osvaldo Larrañaga; Esteban Puentes; Tomás Rau
    Abstract: In this paper we assess the sensitivity of measures of inequality of opportunity to long-term earnings data. We compare indicators using four and seven year earnings with indicators that use the most commonly available yearly and monthly earnings. We argue that four and seven year earnings are preferable since they are a more precise measure of permanent income and are less affected by short-term variability. We use data available for Chile and found that the use of seven and four year earnings produces a 25% higher share of inequality of opportunity compared to yearly and monthly earnings measures. We find that parental education contributes most to income inequality in Chile. Finally, we perform Monte Carlo simulations, finding that our results are robust to several income processes.
    Date: 2012–04

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