New Economics Papers
on Central and South America
Issue of 2012‒05‒02
eight papers chosen by

  1. How Sustainable are Latin American Fiscal Deficits: A Panel Data Approach By Jacobo Campo Robledo; Luis Fernando Melo Velandia
  2. Flujos de capital y política fiscal en las economías emergentes de América Latina By Ignacio Lozano; Ligia Alba Melo B.; Jorge Enrique Ramos F.
  3. Cambios en la informalidad en el mercado de trabajo argentino, 2004 – 2010 By Groisman, Fernando; Vergara, Albano; Calero, Analía Verónica
  4. Spatial division of labor in Chile 1992-2002 By Miguel Atienza; Marcelo Lufin; Mauricio Sarrias
  5. Análisis de la evolución y caracterización de la demanda de educación universitaria en Colombia By Jhon James Mora; Cecilia Albert Verdú;
  6. Trade linkages and growth in Latin America: A time-varying SVAR approach By Winkelried, Diego; Saldarriaga, Miguel
  7. Monetary Policy in Chile: Institutions, Objectives, and Instruments By Francisco Rosende; Matías Tapia
  8. Does the gender wage gap exist among male and female workers with similar human capital? A Coarsened Exact Matching for Chile between 1992 and 2009 By Dusan Paredes

  1. By: Jacobo Campo Robledo; Luis Fernando Melo Velandia
    Abstract: This paper evaluates the fiscal sustainability hypothesis for eight Latin American countries, Argentina, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Panama, Peru, Paraguay and Uruguay, during the period 1960 - 2009. Using second generation cointegration panel data models, we test whether Government revenues and primary expenditures are sustainable in the long-run. This methodology allows for cross-sectional dependence among countries and is also appropriated under the existence of potential structural breaks. We found empirical evidence of sustainability of the primary deficit for these Latin American countries but only in a weak sense.
    Keywords: Fiscal Sustainability, Panel Unit Root tests, Panel Cointegration tests, Structural Change. Classification JEL:C22, C23, H62.
    Date: 2011–11
  2. By: Ignacio Lozano; Ligia Alba Melo B.; Jorge Enrique Ramos F.
    Abstract: En este documento se evalúa la respuesta de la política fiscal ante los choques de los flujos de capital registrados durante las dos últimas décadas en seis economías emergentes de América Latina: Argentina, Brasil, Chile, Colombia, México y Perú. Con base en la caracterización de los diferentes episodios de entradas y salidas súbitas de capital y en los resultados de un modelo de datos de panel con variables instrumentales, se concluye que no hubo respuestas directas de las autoridades fiscales frente a los choques de los flujos. Sin embargo, la evidencia también sugiere que para el conjunto de países, se presentó una reacción fiscal indirecta de naturaleza pro-cíclica, al impacto que los flujos de capital produjeron sobre la actividad económica. Este tipo de respuesta pudo cambiar a partir de la crisis financiera global de 2008, cuando varios gobiernos adoptaron posturas contra-cíclicas, por los mejores fundamentales macroeconómicos.
    Date: 2012–04–09
  3. By: Groisman, Fernando; Vergara, Albano; Calero, Analía Verónica
    Abstract: Labor informality verified a marked decrease in the period 2004 -2010 accompanying the fall in unemployment. However, the informal employment is still at around 45% in the employment structure in Argentina. The aim of this paper is to analyze the changes in the composition of informal workers in the period 2004 -2010 in Argentina. The results obtained allow to state that there was a marked reduction in the incidence of informal employment in line with the favorable economic development. However, the reduction of informality was not so widespread in the major components thereof. Specifically, it was observed that the groups that showed the largest reductions were those of self-employed and unregistered employees in small establishments. This warrants further research addressing the persistence of informality in larger establishments.
    Keywords: segmented labor market; informal employment
    JEL: J4 J2
    Date: 2011–08
  4. By: Miguel Atienza (IDEAR - Department of Economics, Universidad Católica del Norte - Chile); Marcelo Lufin (IDEAR - Department of Economics, Universidad Católica del Norte - Chile); Mauricio Sarrias (IDEAR - Department of Economics, Universidad Católica del Norte - Chile)
    Abstract: The article describes functional specialization of the Chilean municipalities ("comunas"), controlling for their industrial mix between 1992 and 2002 with information from the Population and Housing Censuses. The analysis of global and local spatial auto-correlation of indices of functional specialization shows the existence of a pattern of spatial division of labor characterized by the strong specialization of the Metropolitan Region in occupations of higher cognitive-cultural skills. In contrast, the other "comunas" are specialized in routine physical functions that require medium or low levels of qualification. This pattern raises doubts about the validity of the current development strategy of the country.
    Keywords: Division of labor, industrial mix, occupational mix, regional inequality
    JEL: L23 O15 O18 R11
    Date: 2012–03
  5. By: Jhon James Mora; Cecilia Albert Verdú;
    Abstract: En este estudio se analizan los principales factores microeconométricos que determinan la demanda de educación universitaria en Colombia con datos provenientes de las Encuestas de hogares (ENH y ECH) realizadas por el DANE. La metodología utilizada consiste en la estimación robusta de modelos de elección discreta. Entre los resultados más relevantes destaca la importancia que tienen, en la demanda de educación universitaria, el género, el nivel educativo y la situación en el mercado laboral de los padres, la composición familiar y la renta. De ahí, que no se cumpla el principio de igualdad de oportunidades educativas, que, como lo señala Barr (1993), establece que cualquier individuo pueda recibir tanta educación como cualquier otro, con independencia de características propias como el género, características de su entorno más cercano, familia y/o la renta, entre otras.
    Date: 2011–11–30
  6. By: Winkelried, Diego (Banco Central de Reserva del Perú); Saldarriaga, Miguel (Banco Central de Reserva del Perú)
    Abstract: This paper examines how shocks originated in large economies around the globe have transmitted to the growth rates of Latin American countries. For this purpose, a highly parsimonious structural VAR model – identified through bilateral trade linkages – is proposed, tested, estimated and simulated. Since trade weights evolve through time, the effect of shocks are time-varying. Thus, we are able to quantify how growth in the region has been affected by tighter trading linkages with fast-growing emerging economies, and how it has responded to a new world trade structure, featuring China as a major player. It is found that about half of the vigourous growth reported in Latin American countries by the end of the 2000s can be attributed to (direct and especially indirect) multiplier effects induced by the spectacular growth of the Chinese economy over the same period.
    Keywords: Latin America, China, trade linkages, time-varying structural VAR
    JEL: C32 C50 E32 F44 O54
    Date: 2012–04
  7. By: Francisco Rosende; Matías Tapia
    Abstract: The behavior of inflation in Chile over the last 30 years has striking similarities to the experience of many industrialized and developing economies. The successful reduction of inflation, in a context of health GDP growth, reflects a combination of factors, ranging from better policies (both in terms of objectives and actual policy management) to a global supply shock that reduced inflation everywhere. Thus, the reduction of inflation in Chile was not solely luck or solely inspiration from the monetary authorities, but rather a (successful) combination of both. The paper performs two empirical exercises to analyze the behavior of inflation in the last 3 decades. Using the structural break methodology developed by Bai and Perron, we find that inflation process has changed twice since 1977, both changes roughly coinciding with relevant changes in both the monetary policy framework and international conditions. The second exercises uses the UC-SV model developed by Stock and Watson (2007). Comparing our results for Chile with a similar exercise for the G7, we confirm the strong similarities between the timing and characteristics of the inflation process in Chile and the industrialized world. This paper can be seen as the first part of wider agenda that tries to understand the features of inflation in Chile, with an emphasis on placing them on an international context. Future research will try to empirically analyze those mechanisms, shedding some light on the competing hypotheses and their relative weight.
    Keywords: Inflation, monetary policy, structural breaks, unobserved components
    JEL: E31 E52 E58
    Date: 2012
  8. By: Dusan Paredes (IDEAR - Department of Economics, Universidad Católica del Norte - Chile)
    Abstract: This paper estimates the gender wage gap for Chile between 1992-2009, but using by first time a matching comparison. In order to contribute to the empirical literature, this paper uses a novel technique called Coarsened Exact Matching which imposes the comparison among comparable workers. The results suggest that the wage gap exists, but it is lower than previous estimations, specially when only comparable workers are considered. This result opens the discussion about how well estimated is the gap when exist a high heterogeneity between male and female workers. The results also show a increment in wage gap from 2000. Finally, only the 58% of comparable male workers earns more wage than similar females workers. However, this 58% presents larger differential than its comparable 42% of female workers. This differential is also growing during the last years.
    Keywords: Gender wage gap, matching comparison, Coarsened Exact Matching
    Date: 2012–04

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