New Economics Papers
on Central and South America
Issue of 2009‒10‒24
six papers chosen by

  1. EU-MERCOSUR Trade Agreement: Potential Impacts on Rural Livelihoods and Gender (with Focus on Bio-fuels Feedstock Expansion) By Leonith Hinojosa
  2. Curvas de salários dinâmicas: um estudo dos determinantes da histerese do desemprego no Brasil By Roberto Santolin; Mariângela Furlan Antigo
  3. Financial system, innovation and regional development: a study on the relationship between liquidity preference and innovation in Brazil By João Prates Romero; Frederico G. Jayme Jr.
  4. The scientific and technological trajectories of four Latin American countries: Mexico, Costa Rica, Argentina, and Brazil By Leonardo Costa Ribeiro; Isabel de Azeredo Moura; Luiza Teixeira de Melo Franco; Márcia Siqueira Rapini; Eduardo da Motta e Albuquerque
  5. Medium Term Business Cycles in Developing Countries By Diego A. Comin; Norman Loayza; Farooq Pasha; Luis Serven
  6. FINANCIAL CRISES AND LIQUIDITY SHOCKS: A Bank-Run Perspective By Guillermo A. Calvo

  1. By: Leonith Hinojosa
    Abstract: The trade-sustainable impact assessment of the European Union-Mercosur trade agreement found that the economic impact of the trade liberalisation scenario could be positive in the agriculture sector of Mercosur countries. However, it also found that the social and environmental impacts would be mixed and potentially detrimental. This paper addresses the likely effects on the livelihoods of vulnerable rural populations. It argues that the potential impacts can be analysed within a diversified livelihood strategies framework, which is expanded to include institutional and policy factors. It concludes that the negative expected impact responds to the highly uneven access to capital assets. On the other hand, the effects are not generalised to all Mercosur countries, nor to all regions in each of the member countries. Enhancing or mitigating measures refer to the importance of sequencing and regulation to improve disadvantaged groups’ abilities to participate in trade-led agricultural intensification or industrialisation processes.
    Date: 2009
  2. By: Roberto Santolin (Cedeplar-UFMG); Mariângela Furlan Antigo (Cedeplar-UFMG)
    Abstract: This work estimates elasticity wage/long-term unemployment and checking which individuals groups are more affected by unemployment hysteresis phenomenon, using Household Sample National Survey (PNAD) published by the Brazilian Bureau of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) of six metropolitan regions - São Paulo, Rio de Janeiro, Recife, Salvador, Belo Horizonte e Porto Alegre – between 1997 and 2005. Behind of model of Dynamic Wage Curve, the results show strong wage flexibility in labor market. However, analyzing only formal workers, this result show that hysteresis originates of wage rigidity. In addition, it was observed that men, whites and individuals with higher education levels are less affected by long-term unemployment caused of wage flexibility these groups, among other reasons.
    Keywords: Labor Market, Dynamic Wage Curve, Unemployment, Hysteresis
    JEL: E24 J51 J60
    Date: 2009–10
  3. By: João Prates Romero (Cedeplar-UFMG); Frederico G. Jayme Jr. (Cedeplar-UFMG)
    Abstract: This paper discusses and assesses the features of the Brazilian Financial System, as well as the impacts of Liquidity Preference on Credit and Regional Development in Brazil. Precisely, we test the relationship between credit and development, and the role of banks in regional development. We estimate a panel across states in Brazil in order to test the impact of liquidity preference and other financial variables on Brazilian states credit level. We have also tested the relationship between liquidity preference and other financial variables across states and the number of patents, aiming at testing the importance of technology and innovation on regional development by means of bank system. Conclusions confirm both hypotheses.
    Keywords: Monetary System, National Innovation System, Credit
    JEL: E50 O16 O33
    Date: 2009–08
  4. By: Leonardo Costa Ribeiro (Cedeplar-UFMG); Isabel de Azeredo Moura (Cedeplar-UFMG); Luiza Teixeira de Melo Franco (Cedeplar-UFMG); Márcia Siqueira Rapini (Cedeplar-UFMG); Eduardo da Motta e Albuquerque (Cedeplar-UFMG)
    Abstract: This paper introduces the differences and similarities of interactions between science and technology (S&T) among four Latin American countries: Argentina, Brazil, Costa Rica and Mexico. Through the analysis of articles and patents data as well as the elaboration of global matrices and national three-dimensional matrices, it was possible to observe the recent trajectory of the scientific and technological production of countries. The results indicate that the Latin American countries have a similar pattern regarding their scientific and technological structure and they are part of a regime characterized by immature National Systems of Innovation (NSI).
    Keywords: Latin American countries, science and technology interaction, national systems of innovation
    JEL: O O3
    Date: 2009–09
  5. By: Diego A. Comin; Norman Loayza; Farooq Pasha; Luis Serven
    Abstract: We build a two country asymmetric DSGE model with two features: (i) a product cycle structure determines the range of intermediate goods used to produce new capital in each country and (ii) there are investment flow adjustment costs in the developing economy. We calibrate the model to match the Mexico-US trade and FDI flows. The model is able to explain (i) why US shocks have a larger effect on Mexico than in the US and hence why the Mexican economy is more volatile than the US; (ii) why US business cycles lead over medium term fluctuations in Mexico and (iii) why Mexican consumption is not less volatile than output.
    JEL: E3 F1 F2 F4 O3
    Date: 2009–10
  6. By: Guillermo A. Calvo
    Abstract: This note is motivated by trying to understand the macroeconomic implications of assuming that periods of financial bonanza and turmoil are driven by financial innovation and collapse in line with the “bank run†literature of the Diamond-Dybvig (1983) variety. Bypassing a host of important but, for the present purposes, secondary details the note assumes that the initial effects of financial innovation and crash can be summarized by a parameter that determines the “liquidity†or “moneyness†of land or capital. This simplification helps to shed light on some issues that are at the center of the policy debate. In particular, one can show that preventing price deflation is not enough to offset asset meltdown. Furthermore, lower policy interest rates increase asset prices and steady-state output which, however, gets reversed as liquidity is destroyed. An interesting result is that, in the neighborhood of a first-best capital allocation, an increase in the moneyness of capital may lower the welfare of the representative individual, even if the higher liquidity of capital is sustainable and, hence, not destroyed by future crash. Moreover, an extension of the basic model supports the conjecture that low policy interest rates may have given incentives to the development of “shadow banking.â€
    JEL: E5 E58 F41 G2
    Date: 2009–10

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