New Economics Papers
on Central and South America
Issue of 2008‒07‒20
three papers chosen by

  1. ¿Can Peru be a New Economic Miracle? By Raymundo Chirinos
  2. Crime, Poverty and Police Corruption in Developing Countries By Jens Chr. Andvig; Odd-Helge Fjeldstad
  3. ¿Son Fiables las Estimaciones de Pobreza en América Latina? By Sanjay G. Reddy

  1. By: Raymundo Chirinos (Banco Central de Reserva del Perú)
    Abstract: This paper estimates the probability that Peru becomes a new economic miracle. However, since economic theory does not define what exactly an economic miracle is, we must develop a definition based on the top quintile of the distribution of maximum 10-, 15- and 20-year average rates of growth over the period 1961-2002. By using this criterion, we identify 19 “miracle” economies, which will be compared with a similar number of “average” and “disaster” economies. Through a ordered choice model based on a set of initial conditions we determine the probability that Peru lies in the first group over the next 10, 15 and 20 years. The probability that Peru becomes a miracle in the next 10 years is very high; however, the evidence is less conclusive for longer periods.
    Keywords: milagro económico, condiciones iniciales, modelo de elección ordenada
    JEL: C25 O49
    Date: 2008–01
  2. By: Jens Chr. Andvig; Odd-Helge Fjeldstad
    Abstract: Crime and the fear of being hit by crime and small-scale violence are key economic and social problems in most developing countries, not least felt strongly by the poor. Extensive corruption in the police, experienced or perceived, contributes seriously to the problem. A key question raised in the paper is: How is police corruption linked to the wider processes of development - including crime, violence and poverty? The paper examines (i) how and why corruption may arise in the daily routines of the police and whether it may have impacts on crime rates; (ii) empirical indications of whether the police may be more corrupt than other groups of public officials; (iii) how and why police corruption may vary across countries; and (iv) the wider impacts of police corruption on development
    Keywords: Corruption Crime Police Poverty JEL classification: D73, K42, O17
    Date: 2008
  3. By: Sanjay G. Reddy (Dept. of Economics, Barnard College, Columbia University)
    Abstract: ¿Cuál es el nivel de pobreza de ingresos en América Latina? ¿Ha estado disminuyendo? ¿Son fiables las estimaciones actuales? El enfoque más influyente para medir la pobreza de ingresos a nivel regional y mundial es él utilizado por el Banco Mundial, que establece líneas internacionales de pobreza de ?un dólar al día? y ?dos dólares al día? por persona. El banco utiliza factores de ?paridad del poder adquisitivo? (PPA) para transformar estas líneas internacionales en monedas locales. (...)
    Keywords: ¿Son Fiables las Estimaciones de Pobreza en América Latina?
    Date: 2008–07

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