|
on Central and South America |
|
Issue of 2008‒01‒19
five papers chosen by |
| By: | Robert Boyer; Julio César Neffa |
| Abstract: | On s'attache à montrer en premier lieu que l'interprétation de la crise argentine par le laxisme de la politique budgétaire et les rigidités institutionnelles du marché du travail n'est pas satisfaisante. La crise qui éclate en 2001 s'inscrit dans l'histoire longue argentine et manifeste l'incohérence du régime d'accumulation impliqué par le régime de convertibilité et l'ouverture commerciale et financière quasi-complète. Absence de compromis institutionnalisés stables et perte de la capacité à répondre aux aléas de l'économie mondiale expliquent la gravité de la dépression qui s'ouvre dès 1998. La vigoureuse reprise économique qui intervient après le défaut de la dette publique et la pesification ne signifie pas que l'économie argentine ait surmonté les obstacles structurels qui hypothèquent sa croissance depuis 1976. L'article s'achève par la discussion de la vraisemblance de divers modes de développement. Il apparaît difficile d'échapper à la logique d'un régime primaire exportateur dont les perspectives sont certes renouvelées mais pas complètement transformées par la possibilité d'un renchérissement durable des produits agricoles à l'échelle mondiale. ###[english abstract: It is argued that the conventional analysis of the 2001 Argentina crisis in terms of populist budgetary policies and institutional rigidities of labor market is not satisfactory. The 2001 collapse takes place within a long history, but it results from a quite specific factor: the structural unbalance within the accumulation regime implied by the convertibility and the complete opening to world trade and financial globalization. The shakiness of major institutional compromises and the lack of policy tools to respond to the vagaries of the world economy explain the 1998 turning point from growth to depression. The fast economic recovery observed since 2002, associated to the default of public debt and the pesification, does not mean that Argentina has definitely overcome the structural obstacles that have been hindering its growth since 1976. The likelihood and resilience of alternative development modes is finally discussed. It is difficult to overcome the logic of a primary product exporter country. Of course, its potential is larger in the 2000s, but this economic regime is not totally transformed by the expected medium term rise of commodities prices at the world level.]### |
| Date: | 2007 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pse:psecon:2007-46&r=lam |
| By: | Maria Bas; Yvan Ledezma |
| Abstract: | Using bilateral trade flow data from 1979 to 1999, we estimate trade integration between Chile and its principal trading partners during the period (European Union, United States and Latin America). Our estimates are based on a gravity specification, theoretically grounded on a monopolistic competition framework with increasing returns. Trade barriers are measured following the border effect methodology by comparing inter-national imports to intra-national ones. Our results are consistent with the agenda of trade integration followed by Chile. Moreover, trade integration turns out to be heterogeneous across industries and over the time. We also find asymmetries between export and import oriented policies as well as between partners. All these features are usually missing when one uses direct measures of trade policies. |
| Date: | 2007 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pse:psecon:2007-50&r=lam |
| By: | Renzo Rossini (Central Reserve Bank of Peru); Marco Vega (Central Reserve Bank of Peru) |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes the changes in the monetary policy transmission mechanism in Peru. A strong conclusion that emerges from this research is that both, the direct interest rate channel and the expectations channel have become more important in the recent years, especially after the Inflation Targeting adoption. The research further explores the implications of financial dollarization for the practice of monetary policy by performing two exercises. First, it compares different degrees of exchange rate flexibility and finds out that the more flexible the exchange rate is, the quicker but weaker the exchange rate pass-through becomes. Second, since financial dollarization may trigger contractionary depreciations, the document studies implications for monetary policy. The conclusion is that the effectiveness of monetary policy can be further improved if the economy becomes less dollarized. |
| Keywords: | Transmission Channels, Financial dollarization, Monetary Policy, Emerging Markets. |
| JEL: | E52 |
| Date: | 2007–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rbp:wpaper:2007-017&r=lam |
| By: | Norman Loayza (The World Bank) |
| Abstract: | Adopting a legal definition of informality, this article studies the causes of informality in general and with a particular application to Peru. It starts with a discussion on the definition and measures of informality, as well as on the reasons why widespread informality should be of great concern. Then, the article analyzes informality’s main determinants, arguing that informality is not single-caused but results from the combination of poor public services, a burdensome regulatory regime, and weak monitoring and enforcement capacity by the state. This combination is especially explosive when the country suffers from low educational achievement and features demographic pressures and primary production structures. Finally, using cross-country regression analysis, the article evaluates the empirical relevance of each determinant of informality. It then applies the estimated relationships to the case of Peru in order to assess the country-specific relevance of each proposed mechanism. |
| Keywords: | Regulation, government performance, economic growth, informal economy |
| JEL: | K20 K30 H11 O40 O17 |
| Date: | 2007–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rbp:wpaper:2007-018&r=lam |
| By: | Marylin Choy (Banco Central de Reserva del Perú); Roy Ayllón (Banco Central de Reserva del Perú) |
| Abstract: | The Peruvian financial system is highly dollarized with more than 50 per cent of deposits held in dollars. The structure and operation of the payment system reflect this financial dollarization. Not only does it settle payments in local and foreign currency, but the Intraday Financial Facility (IFF), through which the Central Bank provides liquidity to assure the uninterrupted operation of the payment system, reflects as well the financial system dollarization. Thus, due to the high dollar composition of deposits in the financial system, banks keep large amounts of dollar liquidity at the Central Bank, so as to meet the marginal reserve requirement of 30 per cent, while the lower soles share of deposits as well as the minimum requirement to maintain 1 per cent deposited at the Central Bank, makes the soles liquidity of banks insufficient to settle all the transactions undertaken by the payment system, which for the most part are carried out in local currency, in spite of the financial dollarization. This situation leads the banks to utilize the IFF by means mainly of foreign currency swaps, given the ample availability of dollar liquidity. Nevertheless, the gradual dedollarization and the increasing bankarization are reducing the need to utilize the IFF. It is worth noting that at present not only foreign currency liquidity but also the holdings of Central Bank and Government securities are ensuring that the financial system is able to make use of the IFF and have the excess liquidity in order to settle total payments, both in local and foreign currency, thus enabling the payment system to run smoothly and efficiently. |
| Keywords: | Sistema de pagos, liquidez intradiaria, dolarización e instrumentos de política monetaria. |
| JEL: | D53 E44 E58 G21 G28 |
| Date: | 2007–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rbp:wpaper:2007-019&r=lam |