New Economics Papers
on Central and South America
Issue of 2006‒07‒02
two papers chosen by

  1. Measuring the Economic Vulnerability of Children in Developing Countries: an application to Guatemala By Fabrizia Mealli; Stephen Pudney; Furio Rosati
  2. Common Factors in Latin America's Business Cycles By Marco Aiolfi; Allan Timmermann; Luis Catão

  1. By: Fabrizia Mealli (University of Florence); Stephen Pudney (Institute for Social and Economic Research); Furio Rosati (UNICEF Innocenti Research Centre)
    Abstract: Anti-poverty policy in developing countries has focused mainly on the measurement and location of poverty and the targeting of policy towards those who are currently poor. Recently, the research effort has been extended to cover those judged to be not poor at present but vulnerable to poverty in the future. We concentrate on two aspects: inadequate education and child labor, which are closely associated with chronic poverty. We develop and apply new methods for the measurement and empirical analysis of vulnerability to future premature school leaving and/or onset of child labor. Guatemalan survey data are used for the illustrative application.
    Keywords: child labour, multi-state transition models, school drop-out, vulnerability
    Date: 2006–06
  2. By: Marco Aiolfi; Allan Timmermann; Luis Catão
    Abstract: This paper constructs new business cycle indices for Argentina, Brazil, Chile, and Mexico based on common dynamic factors extracted from a comprehensive set of sectoral output, external data, and fiscal and financial variables spanning over a century. The constructed indices are used to derive a business cycle chronology for these countries and characterize a set of new stylized facts. In particular, we show that all four countries have historically displayed a striking combination of high business cycle and persistence relative to benchmark countries, and that such volatility has been time-varying, with important differences across policy regimes. We also uncover a sizeable common factor across the four economies which has greatly limited scope for regional risk sharing.
    Keywords: Business cycles , Latin America , Argentina , Brazil , Chile , Mexico , Economic models ,
    Date: 2006–03–07

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