New Economics Papers
on Central and South America
Issue of 2005‒10‒29
seven papers chosen by

  1. Tipo de Cambio Flexible con Metas de Inflación en Chile: Experiencia y Temas de Interés. By José De Gregorio; Andrea Tokman; Rodrigo Valdés
  2. Global Imbalances and Exchange Rate Adjustment By José De Gregorio
  5. Spatial externalities between Brazilian municipios and their neighbours By Philippe De Vreyer; Gilles Spielvogel
  6. Do Cash Transfers to Farmers Reduce Migration? Procampo in Mexico By Gabriel Gonzalez-Konig; Quentin Wodon
  7. Remittances and Inequality By Gabriel Gonzalez-Konig; Quentin Wodon

  1. By: José De Gregorio; Andrea Tokman; Rodrigo Valdés
    Date: 2005–08
  2. By: José De Gregorio
    Date: 2005–09
  3. By: Jairo Núñez; Silvia Espinosa
    Abstract: Este trabajo busca realizar un diagnóstico de la oferta de asistenta social en el país y llevar a cabo algunas recomendaciones sobre el posible montaje de un componente de asistencia social dentro del Sistema de Protección Social. En el diagnóstico se define la población objetivo de la asistencia social y se analizan sus principales características. Luego se realiza un estudio del portafolio actual de asistencia social en Colombia y se llevan a cabo algunas estimaciones para establecer la incidencia del gasto en protección social sobre la pobreza y la brecha de pobreza para el año 2003. Por último, se analiza la focalización en la entrega de servicios de asistencia social, incluyendo el estudio de errores de inclusión (inclusión de personas no pobres dentro de los receptores de los subsidios) y errores de exclusión (proporción de población pobre que no recibe asistencia social). En la sección de propuestas se establecen los principales problemas de la oferta de asistencia social en el país y se realizan recomendaciones en términos de priorización de servicios, incentivos, focalización, coordinación institucional,financiación y descentralización, entre otros.
    Keywords: Asistencia social
    JEL: D61
    Date: 2005–07–15
  4. By: Jeffrey G. Williamson
    Abstract: Between 1810 and 1940, a large GDP per capita gap appeared between the industrial core and the poor periphery, the latter producing, increasingly, primary products. Over the same period, the terms of trade facing the periphery underwent a secular boom then bust, peaking in the 1870s or 1890s. These terms of trade trends appear to have been exogenous to the periphery. Additionally, the terms of trade facing the periphery exhibited relatively high volatility. Are these correlations spurious, or are they causal? This Figuerola Lecture, to be given at Carlos III University (Madrid) , argues that they are causal, that secular growth and volatility in the terms of trade had asymmetric effects on core and periphery. On the upswing, the secular rise in its terms of trade had powerful de - industrialization effects in the periphery. Over the full cycle 1810-1940, terms of trade volatility suppressed accumulation and growth in the periphery as well.
    Date: 2005–10
  5. By: Philippe De Vreyer (Université de Lille II, DIAL); Gilles Spielvogel (DIAL, IEP-Paris)
    Abstract: (english) Clustering of economic performance and growth in space has generated considerable research on the spillovers and linkages among geographical neighbours. In this paper, we study the growth process of a large sample of Brazilian municipalities for the period 1970-1996 and attempt to evaluate the spatial externalities at work among them. We estimate the convergence speed of per capita income among municipios and test whether spatial externalities are linked to local income growth. Conditionally on structural characteristics, we find evidence of convergence between municipios and of positive spatial dependence in growth. These two facts could help explain the persistent inequalities between municipios and the increasing clustering of poor localities in the Northeast region. _________________________________ (français) La concentration des revenus et de la croissance économique dans l'espace a suscité une littérature abondante sur les effets de débordements et les liens entre localités voisines. Dans ce papier, nous étudions le processus de croissance d'un large échantillon de municipalités brésiliennes durant la période 1970-1996 et tentons d'évaluer les externalités spatiales à l'oeuvre entre celles-ci. Nous estimons la vitesse de convergence du niveau de revenu par habitant des municipalités et testons la présence d'externalités spatiales liées à la croissance locale. Conditionnellement aux caractéristiques structurelles des municipalités, nos résultats indiquent la présence d'une convergence du revenu moyen par habitant ainsi que d'une dépendance spatiale positive de la croissance locale. Ces deux résultats permettent d'expliquer les inégalités persistantes entre les municipalités et la concentration croissante des localités pauvres dans la région Nord-Est.
    Keywords: Local growth, convergence, spatial externalities, spatial econometrics, Brazil, Croissance locale, convergence, externalités spatiales, économétrie spatiale, Brésil
    JEL: O40 R11 R12
    Date: 2005–10
  6. By: Gabriel Gonzalez-Konig (School of Economics, Universidad de Guanajuato); Quentin Wodon (The World Bank)
    Abstract: This paper provides a theoretical model to suggest that if cash transfers for farmers have or are perceived to have conditionalities in terms of location (whereby at least some household members must remain at the place of origin to benefit from the transfers), their impact on temporary and permanent migration is uncertain a priori. To test empirically what the impact of the transfers could be, we use data on Procampo, a large transfer program for rural farmers in Mexico implemented since 1994. We find that the impact of Procampo on both permanent and temporary migration has been negative.
    JEL: O15 Q18 J61
  7. By: Gabriel Gonzalez-Konig (School of Economics, Universidad de Guanajuato); Quentin Wodon (The World Bank)
    Abstract: The impact of remittances on inequality is uncertain a priori. However, at the margin, remittances are likely to be more inequality increasing (or less inequality decreasing) in poorer as opposed to richer areas. This is suggested with a simple theoretical model, and tested empirically using survey-based estimates of the Gini income elasticity of remittances in Honduras. The results are robust to alternative distribution weights used for measuring inequality.
    Keywords: Migration, Remittances, Income Distribution.
    JEL: J61 O15

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