New Economics Papers
on Central and South America
Issue of 2005‒10‒22
five papers chosen by

  1. Does development aid help poor countries catch up? By Herbertsson, Tryggvi Thor; Martin Paldam
  2. Reestimación y actualización del costo económico en Argentina de la mortalidad atribuible al tabaco en adultos. By Mariana Conte Grand
  3. Once Again, is Openness Good for Growth? By Ha Y. Lee; Roberto Rigobón; Luca Antonio Ricci
  4. Bank Consolidation and Performance: The Argentine Experience By Pablo Druck; Raul Susmel; Ritu Basu; David Marston
  5. What Drives Inflation Expectations in Brazil? An Empirical Analysis By Martin Cerisola; R. Gaston Gelos

  1. By: Herbertsson, Tryggvi Thor; Martin Paldam (Department of Economics, University of Aarhus, Denmark)
    Abstract: Aid flows are included into the standard cross-country catch-up relation. Robust¬ness of the result is tested by changing time periods and by adding extra variables. The main results are: Absolute conver¬gence and absolute aid effec¬ti¬ve¬ness are both rejected. While conditional convergence is accepted, conditional aid effecti¬ve¬ness is found to be weak. The two relations are largely inde¬pendent. However, aid has a clear activity effect in the short run. Finally, we try to divide the countries into an A-group where aid is effective and a B-group where it harms. Several criteria of division were explored, but none were very successful – the most satisfactory is the one that divides countries according to their level of development.
    Keywords: Convergence, growth, development aid effectiveness
    JEL: C14 C23 F35 O4
    Date: 2005–07–21
  2. By: Mariana Conte Grand
    Abstract: Existe amplia evidencia científica que vincula al tabaquismo con la mortalidad. Para estimar el costo de la mortalidad anual atribuible al tabaco (MAT) para adultos en Argentina se utilizaron datos de prevalencia de consumo de fumadores y ex fumadores (SEDRONAR 2004), riesgos relativos de muerte por las patologías relevantes (Cancer Prevention Study II), muertes por dichas enfermedades (MSAL 2004) y el valor de la consecuente productividad perdida (EPH 2004). Se concluye que en el 2003, se produjeron 41.280 MAT en Argentina en los mayores de 35 años (15 de cada 100 muertes de ese grupo de edad). El costo anual medido como pérdida de ingresos futuros por mortalidad prematura fue de 2.315 millones de pesos del año 2003, implicando esto 0,6% del PBI de ese año. También se encontraron diferencias en las MAT por causa de mortalidad por sexo y por edad. En la comparación con los resultados del año 2000, surge que aumentaron levemente las MAT (un 2,3%), principalmente inducidas por el aumento de las muertes por causas asociadas al tabaco y no tanto por los cambios en las tasas de prevalencia. Y, por otro lado, si bien aumentaron los costos económicos nominales en un 22,75%, en términos reales, éstos bajaron un 14,5%.
    Keywords: Epidemiología, Tabaco, Mortalidad, Valuación
    JEL: I1
    Date: 2005–10
  3. By: Ha Y. Lee; Roberto Rigobón; Luca Antonio Ricci
    Abstract: Rodriguez and Rodrik (2000) argue that the relation between openness and growth is still an open question. One of the main problems in the assessment of the effect is the endogeneity of the relation. In order to address this issue, this paper applies the identification through heteroskedasticity methodology to estimate the effect of openness on growth while properly controlling for the effect of growth on openness. The results suggest that openness would have a positive effect on growth, although small. This result stands, despite the equally robust effect from growth to openness.
    Keywords: Trade policy , Economic growth , Economic models ,
    Date: 2004–08–11
  4. By: Pablo Druck; Raul Susmel; Ritu Basu; David Marston
    Abstract: We examine a large panel of more than 100 banks from Argentina to study the effects of bank consolidation on performance between December 1995 and December 2000, a period of heavy bank consolidation and relative calm. Overall, we find a positive and significant effect of bank consolidation on bank performance. Bank returns increase with consolidation, and insolvency risk is reduced. Additionally, the study suggests that mergers and privatizations have a beneficial effect on bank returns. The effects of a bank acquisition on return on equity is, however, negative. Acquisitions do not seem to have any effect on risk-adjusted returns. The study also finds that a bank's insolvency risk is reduced significantly through mergers and privatization and is unrelated to bank acquisitions.
    Keywords: Banking , Argentina , Emerging markets , Bank restructuring , Financial crisis , Privatization , Economic models ,
    Date: 2004–08–24
  5. By: Martin Cerisola; R. Gaston Gelos
    Abstract: This study examines the macroeconomic determinants of survey inflation expectations in Brazil since the adoption of inflation targeting in 1999. The results suggest that the inflation targeting framework has helped anchor expectations, with the dispersion of inflation expectations declining considerably, particularly during periods of high uncertainty. We also find that apart from the inflation target, the stance of fiscal policy, as proxied by the ratio of the consolidated primary surplus to GDP, has been instrumental in shaping expectations. The importance of past inflation in determining expectations appears to be relatively low, and the overall empirical evidence does not suggest the presence of substantial inertia in the inflation process.
    Keywords: Inflation , Brazil , Inflation targeting , Economic models ,
    Date: 2005–06–13

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