New Economics Papers
on Central and South America
Issue of 2005‒10‒15
seven papers chosen by

  1. Limite de Endividamento e Sustentabilidade Fiscal no Brasil: Uma abordagem via modelo Quantílico Auto-Regressivo (QAR) By Luiz Renato Regis de Oliveira Lima; Raquel Sampaio; Wagner Gaglianone
  2. Race and Health Disparities Among Seniors in Urban Areas in Brazil By Antonio J. Trujillo; John A. Vernon; Laura Rodriguez Wong; Gustavo Angeles
  3. Estimating a Fiscal Reaction Function: The Case of Debt Sustainability in Brazil By Luiz de Mello
  4. Education Attainment in Brazil: The Experience of FUNDEF By Luiz de Mello; Mombert Hoppe
  5. Poverty and chilidren's work in Spain and Latin America. Some preliminary remarks. By Enriqueta Camps
  6. From Rogue Creditors to Rogue Debtors: Implications of Argentina's Default By Arturo C. Porzecanski
  7. Argentina: The Root Cause of the Disaster By Arturo C. Porzecanski

  1. By: Luiz Renato Regis de Oliveira Lima (EPGE/FGV); Raquel Sampaio; Wagner Gaglianone
    Date: 2005–10
  2. By: Antonio J. Trujillo; John A. Vernon; Laura Rodriguez Wong; Gustavo Angeles
    Abstract: White seniors report better health than Black seniors in urban areas in Sao Paulo, Brazil. This is the case even after controlling for baseline health conditions and several demographic, socio-economic and family support characteristics. Furthermore, adjusted racial disparities in self-reported health are larger than the disparities found using alternative measures of functional health. Our empirical research in this paper suggests that the two most important factors driving racial disparities in health among seniors (in our sample) are historical differences in rural living conditions and current income. Present economic conditions are more relevant to racial disparities among poor seniors than among rich seniors. Moreover, racial differences in health not attributable to observable characteristics are more important when comparing individuals in the upper half of the income distribution.
    JEL: J1 I1
    Date: 2005–10
  3. By: Luiz de Mello
    Abstract: This paper reviews recent trends in fiscal performance in Brazil, estimates fiscal reaction functions for the consolidated public sector and different levels of government, and tests for the sustainability of the public debt dynamics. The empirical analysis, based on monthly data for the period 1995-2004, suggests that all levels of government react strongly to changes in indebtedness by adjusting their primary budget surplus targets. In addition, the central government appears to follow a spend-and-tax policy: changes in revenue are affected strongly by expenditure, with about two-thirds of changes in primary spending being offset through higher revenue over the long term. Institutions are also found to matter for fiscal sustainability. The responsiveness of sub-national fiscal stance to indebtedness, as well as that of central government revenue to changes in primary spending, appears to have strengthened after 1998, when ceilings on indebtedness were introduced. <P>Estimation des fonctions de réaction budgétaire Cet article examine les tendances récentes des performances budgétaires au Brésil, estime les fonctions de réaction budgétaire pour le secteur public consolidé et les différents niveaux d’administration, et teste la soutenabilité de la dynamique de la dette publique. L'analyse empirique, basée sur des données mensuelles pour la période 1995-2004, suggère que tous les niveaux d’administration réagissent fortement aux changements de l'endettement en ajustant leurs cibles d’excédent budgétaire primaire. En outre, l’administration centrale semble suivre une politique de « dépenses suivi d’impôt »: les changements de revenu sont affectés fortement par les dépenses, avec environ deux tiers des changements de la dépense primaire étant compensée par un plus haut revenu sur le long terme. Les institutions budgétaires sont également importantes en matière de soutenabilité budgétaire. La réaction des administrations locales à l'endettement, ainsi que celle du revenu de l’administration centrale aux changements de la dépense primaire, semble s’être renforcé après 1998, quand des plafonds sur l'endettement ont été introduits.
    Keywords: fiscal rules, règles budgétaires, Brazil, Brésil, debt sustainability, fiscal reaction function, soutenabilité de dette, fonction de réaction budgétaire
    JEL: E62 H62 H63
    Date: 2005–04–01
  4. By: Luiz de Mello; Mombert Hoppe
    Abstract: For many years, Brazil lagged behind other middle-income countries in terms of school enrolment rates. But since 1998 policies have aimed at bridging this gap, in particular, with the implementation of FUNDEF, a fund for financing sub-national spending on primary and lower-secondary education. Using state- and municipality-level data during 1991-2002, this paper shows that FUNDEF played a key role in the increase in enrolment rates over the period, particularly in small municipalities, which rely more heavily on transfers from higher levels of government as a source of revenue. These findings underscore the importance of FUNDEF in eliminating supply constraints to the improvement of education attainment. Enrolment rates are now nearly universal for primary and lower-secondary education. Emphasis should therefore be placed on policies to improve the quality of services and to remove supply constraints to the expansion of enrolment in upper-secondary and tertiary education. <P>Les taux d'inscription scolaire au Brésil Pendant de nombreuses années, les taux d'inscription scolaire au Brésil sont restés derrière ceux des pays à revenu moyen. Mais depuis 1998 des politiques ont visé à réduire cet écart, en particulier, avec la mise en place de FUNDEF, un fonds pour financer la dépense de l'éducation du primaire et du premier cycle du secondaire au niveau local. En utilisant des données au niveau des états et des municipalités de 1991 à 2002, cet article montre que FUNDEF a joué un rôle majeur dans l'augmentation des taux d'inscription au cours de la période, en particulier dans les petites municipalités, qui dépendent plus fortement des transferts à partir des niveaux plus élevés d’administration comme source de revenu. Ces résultats soulignent l'importance de FUNDEF en éliminant les contraintes d’offre liées à l'amélioration des résultats d'éducation. Les taux d'inscription sont maintenant presque universels pour l'éducation du primaire et du premier cycle du secondaire. L'accent devrait donc être mis sur des politiques pour améliorer la qualité des services et pour enlever des contraintes d’offre sur l'expansion de l'inscription dans l'enseignement du deuxième cycle du secondaire et du tertiaire.
    Keywords: education, éducation, Brazil, Brésil, decentralisation, school enrolment, décentralisation, inscription scolaire
    JEL: H52 H72 H77
    Date: 2005–04–04
  5. By: Enriqueta Camps
    Abstract: In the first part of this paper we try to test the relationship between mothers earnings, fertility and children’s work in the Spanish (Catalan) context of the first third of the 20th century. Specific human capital investment of adult working women had as an outcome the sharp increase of their real wage and also the increase of the opportunity cost of time devoted to house work including child rearing. Fertility evolution is endogenous to the model and decreases as a result of women real wage increases. Human capital investment of labouring women and mandatory schooling of children shift the labour supply function to a new steady state in which the slope is steeper. According to recent papers this model applies to 20th century Spain and it causes the abolition of children’s work. Nonetheless the model do not apply to 20th century Latin America. Despite the positive evolution of literacy and life expectancy in this region, other factors involved poor results of the educational human capital investment. In this paper we remark the role of the increasing share of the informal sector of the economy ruled on the bases of women’s and children’s work. Second we stress the role of high income inequality evolution and endogamic school supplies to explain the limits of increasing literacy on more remarkable human capital improvements.
    Keywords: Children’s and women’s work, human capital, fertility evolution, income inequality
    JEL: J22 J24 J13 J16 O1 N36
    Date: 2005–09
  6. By: Arturo C. Porzecanski (American University)
    Keywords: International finance, sovereign debt, sovereign default, Argentina
    JEL: F3 F4
    Date: 2005–10–13
  7. By: Arturo C. Porzecanski (American University)
    Keywords: International finance, sovereign debt, sovereign default
    JEL: F3 F4
    Date: 2005–10–13

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