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on Labour Economics |
| By: | Jonas Cederl\"of; Sara Roman |
| Abstract: | We study how job search behavior evolves over the unemployment spell and the extent to which job seekers experience duration dependence in callbacks. Leveraging data on 2.4 million monthly activity reports containing detailed information on job applications, interviews, and other search activities, we separate within-spell changes from dynamic selection with a time-and-spell fixed effects design. We find that raw search effort increases with unemployment duration, but this pattern reflects dynamic selection: within-spell search effort remains flat and declines sharply in the months preceding re-employment. Around unemployment insurance (UI) exhaustion, search effort drops by approximately 10%, likely due to participation in labor market programs crowding out job search. Reported interviews indicate that callbacks decline by 6% per month, but only 10--14% of this decline reflects ``true'' duration dependence. Finally, we document substantial heterogeneity: search effort and duration dependence vary strongly by age, and job seekers in tight labor markets experience about 50% more duration dependence. |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2511.03377 |
| By: | Zainab Iftikhar; Anna Zaharieva |
| Abstract: | This paper evaluates the effects of low-skill immigration on small businesses, wages, and employment in Germany. We develop a search and matching model with heterogeneous workers, cross-skill matching, and endogenous entry into entrepreneurship. The model is calibrated using data from the German SocioEconomic Panel (SOEP). Quantitative analysis shows that low-skill immigration increases the welfare of high-skill workers. It also leads to the endogenous expansion of immigrant entrepreneurial activities, generating positive spillovers for all demographic groups except native entrepreneurs. However, the gains are outweighed by the losses in welfare of low-skill workers, and overall, there is a marginal loss of per-worker welfare to the economy. Policies restricting immigrant entrepreneurship relax competition for native small businesses but reduce welfare for all other worker groups. |
| Keywords: | entrepreneurship, small business, self-employment, search frictions, immigration |
| JEL: | J23 J31 J61 J64 L26 |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bon:boncrc:crctr224_2025_714 |
| By: | Catherine C. Eckel (Texas A&M University); Lata Gangadharan (Monash University); Philip J. Grossman (Monash University); Miranda Lambert (Texas A&M University); Nina Xue (WU Vienna University of Economics and Business,) |
| Abstract: | Motivated by the stereotype that women are more cooperative and less competitive, we investigate how the institutional environment impacts the gender leadership gap. An experiment tests leaders’ impact on earnings under competitive (“winner take all”) versus cooperative (equal earnings distribution) incentive schemes. All leaders enhance efficiency similarly, but a gender gap emerges in the competitive context where women receive lower evaluations for identical advice. This bias disappears in the cooperative context where female leaders are evaluated 50% higher, suggesting that congruence between the environment and gender stereotypes has important policy implications. Men are more willing to lead, regardless of context. |
| Keywords: | gender, leadership, institutio |
| JEL: | C92 D91 J16 J71 M14 |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mos:moswps:2025-17 |
| By: | Youngsoo Jang (Yonsei University); Ji-Woong Moon (Chung-Ang University) |
| Abstract: | We examine (i) how Labor-Force Participation (LFP) margins influence unemployment through their interaction with wealth accumulation and (ii) their impact on the optimal design of unemployment insurance (UI). To this end, we construct a job search and matching model that incorporates incomplete financial markets and LFP decisions in general equilibrium. We find that LFP margins are crucial for explaining the negative relationship between unemployment and wealth observed in micro-level data. In both the model and the data, declining inflows into unemployment with wealth are the key driver of this negative relationship. Without LFP choices, however, the unemployment rate increases with wealth because inflows into unemployment do not decline with wealth, contradicting empirical findings. This disparity has significant policy implications for the design of UI: the optimal UI benefit is 75% of the current level when LFP decisions are incorporated, whereas in the model without LFP margins the optimal benefit is 0%. |
| Keywords: | Labor Force Participation, Unemployment, Unemployment Insurance, Incomplete Markets, General Equilibrium |
| JEL: | E24 J64 J65 |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:yon:wpaper:2025rwp-270 |
| By: | Matthias Doepke (LSE); Hanno Foerster (Boston College); Anne Hannusch (University of Bonn); Michèle Tertilt (University of Mannheim) |
| Abstract: | During the first half of the twentieth century, many US states enacted laws re- stricting women’s labor market opportunities, including maximum hours restrictions, minimum wage laws, and night-shift bans. The era of so-called protective labor laws came to an end in the 1960s as a result of civil rights reforms. In this paper, we inves- tigate the political economy behind the rise and fall of these laws. We argue that the main driver behind protective labor laws was men’s desire to shield themselves from labor market competition. We spell out the mechanism through a politico-economic model in which singles and couples work in different sectors and vote on protective legislation. Restrictions are supported by single men and couples with male sole earners who compete with women for jobs. We show that the theory’s predictions for when protective legislation will be introduced are well supported by US state-level evidence. |
| Keywords: | labor laws, women, protection, political economy |
| JEL: | D13 D72 D78 E24 J12 J16 N30 O10 O43 |
| Date: | 2025–07–31 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:boc:bocoec:1102 |
| By: | Joseph Staudt |
| Abstract: | I use administrative data from universities (UMETRICS) linked to the universe of confidential W-2 and 1040-C tax records to measure faculty commercial engagement and its role in female-male earnings gaps. Female faculty are 20 percentage points less likely to engage commercially, with the entire gap driven by self-employment. The raw earnings gap is $63, 000 on a base of $162, 000 and non-university earnings account for $18, 000 (29 percent) of this total. Thus, while university pay explains most of the gap, commercial engagement substantially amplifies it. Earnings gaps appear in all components of non-university pay – self-employment, and work for incumbent, young/startup, high-tech, and non-high-tech firms – and remain large, though attenuated, after controlling publications, patents, field, university, scientific resources, age, marital status, childbearing, and demographics. Gaps widen as faculty move up the earnings distribution, and commercial engagement becomes a larger contributor. Men and women engage with similar industries, but men earn more in all shared industries. |
| Keywords: | entrepreneurship, academic commercial engagement, male-female wage gap, university faculty |
| JEL: | O30 J16 J31 |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cen:wpaper:25-68 |
| By: | Giulia Bettin (Department of Economics and Social Sciences, Universita' Politecnica delle Marche); Silvia Mattiozzi (Department of Economics and Social Sciences, Universita' Politecnica delle Marche) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the impact of severe manufacturing crises on internal migration patterns across Italian local labour markets (LLMs) between 2000 and 2019. Leveraging a staggered difference-in-differences design, we estimate the causal effect of these shocks on the mobility of the working-age resident population. The results indicate a significant decline in net migration, primarily driven by an immediate reduction in inflows, which is nearly twice the size of the concurrent rise in outflows to other LLMs. We uncover substantial heterogeneity by citizenship, as foreign nationals are significantly less likely to migrate into affected areas following a crisis, while no systematic differences emerge by gender. The effects are more evident in district-based LLMs, moderately urbanized areas, and those located in Central and Northern Italy. The results are robust across alternative model specifications and difference-in-differences estimators. These findings highlight the uneven impact of manufacturing decline on internal migration patterns across both population groups and LLM characteristics. |
| Keywords: | internal mobility, manufacturing crises, mass lay-offs, local labour markets |
| JEL: | J61 J63 R23 R58 |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:anc:wpaper:501 |
| By: | Wenli Li; Yichen Su |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the significance of migration in evaluating the welfare impacts of remote work. By analyzing individual location history data, we first document an increase in net migration towards suburbs and smaller cities in the US since 2020. We demonstrate that the migration wave has been disproportionately fueled by high-income individuals, who were more likely to move due to remote work. Consequently, regions with substantial in-migration observed the greatest rise in housing expenses. This also led to changes in local demand for services and associated employment. Employing a stylized welfare accounting framework, we show that migration mitigated the increase in housing cost burdens for both high- and low-income groups, with the advantages being greater for low-income individuals. Conversely, dispersed job growth, as a result of migration away from major urban centers, curtailed the increase in job accessibility, especially for high-income groups. Factoring in the spatial impacts of migration on housing costs and job accessibility, the welfare inequality surge related to remote work is considerably tempered. |
| Keywords: | Spatial Sorting; Migration; Housing Cost; Employment; Inequality; Remote Work; WFH |
| JEL: | R2 R3 D6 |
| Date: | 2025–11–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedpwp:102079 |
| By: | Georgarakos, Dimitris; Jappelli, Tullio; Kenny, Geoff; Pistaferri, Luigi |
| Abstract: | Using a large survey of euro area consumers, we conduct an experiment in which respondents report how they would adjust their labor market participation, hours worked, and job search effort (if not employed) in response to randomly assigned windfall gain scenarios. Windfall gains reduce labor supply, but only when the gains are substantial. At the extensive margin, gains of €25, 000 or less have no effects, while gains between €50, 000 and €100, 000 reduce the probability of working by 1.5 to 3.5 percentage points. At the intensive margin, small gains produce no impact, while gains above €50, 000 lead to a reduction of approximately one hour of work per week. The effects among women and workers near retirement are stronger. The share of non-employed respondents who stop or reduce job search intensity declines by 1 percentage point for each €10, 000 in windfall gain, with the strongest effects observed among older individuals receiving €100, 000. JEL Classification: E24, D10, J22, J68 |
| Keywords: | consumer expectations survey, job search, labor supply, survey experiment, wealth shocks |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20253154 |
| By: | Kamila Cygan-Rehm; Matthias Westphal |
| Abstract: | This paper replicates and extends the evidence on the lifetime effects of school starting age on earnings by Fredriksson and Öckert (2014) for Sweden. Using German data for individuals born between 1945 and 1965, we examine a more rigid system of ability tracking in secondary education, a potential driver of long-term effects. We confirm negligible effects of later school entry for men and positive effects for women. These gender differences arise despite similar effects on educational attainment. By unfolding the gender gaps over the lifecycle, assessing fertility decisions, and maternal employment around the first birth, we show that childbirth postponement and increased labor market attachment after the first birth seem to be plausible mechanisms. |
| Keywords: | school starting age, lifetime effects, education, gender gap |
| JEL: | I21 I24 I26 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12274 |
| By: | Sascha O. Becker (University of Warwick and Monash University); Jeanet Sinding Bentzen (University of Copenhagen); Chun Chee Kok (Université Catholique de Louvain) |
| Abstract: | This paper provides a survey of the literature on gender differences in religiosity and the influence of religion on gender-related economic and social outcomes. Part I examines why women tend to be more religious than men, discussing central explanations. Part II explores how religion impacts various gender-related outcomes, such as gender norms and attitudes, education, labor market participation, fertility, health, legal institutions and reforms, and discrimination. Within each domain, we distinguish between effects driven by individual religiosity (intensity of religious practice or belief) and those driven by their religious denomination. We synthesize findings from numerous studies, highlighting data sources, measures of religion and gender outcomes, and empirical strategies. We focus on studies with credible causal identification—such as natural experiments, instrumental variable approaches, and policy changes—to uncover the impact of religion on outcomes. Correlational studies are also reviewed to provide context. Across studies, the evidence suggests that religious teachings and participation often reinforce traditional gender roles, affecting women’s education, labor force participation, and fertility choices, although there are important nuances and exceptions. We also document instances where secular reforms or religious movements have altered these outcomes. The survey concludes by identifying gaps in the literature and suggesting directions for future research. An important take-away from our review is that rigorous empirical studies are scarce, leaving room for novel causal studies in this field |
| Keywords: | Gender gap; Religion; Religiosity; Gender norms; Education; Fertility; Labor markets; Cultural transmission |
| JEL: | Z12 J16 J24 I21 J13 Z13 |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mos:moswps:2025-18 |
| By: | Alejandra Villegas (Universidad Iberoamericana Ciudad de Mexico) |
| Abstract: | This study examines how gender norms are enforced through social sanctions using an online experiment in the Sierra Nororiental of Puebla, Mexico. Combining norm elicitation tasks and a dictator game, it analyzes how participants react to norm compliance and deviation in the division of unpaid domestic labor. Results indicate that sanctioning behavior varies by the gender of both the evaluator and the norm violator, revealing a hierarchical and gendered enforcement structure. The study also identified a discrepancy between self-declared attitudes and behavioral responses: although many participants claimed to support gender equality, they penalized behaviors aligned with that position when those behaviors were perceived as norm violations. These insights have implications for policy interventions aimed at promoting gender equality, suggesting that effective change requires shifting the social expectations and sanctioning logics that underpin persistent inequalities.der board diversity is associated with a 0.75 percentage point rise in the labor share. The effect is stronger in services, in smaller firms, and among firms with persistently low productivity. A counterfactual analysis demonstrates a high semi-elasticity of employment as the driving mechanism behind these findings. |
| Keywords: | gender norms, social expectations, punishment, experimental economics, unpaid care and domestic work |
| JEL: | C91 J16 Z13 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fme:wpaper:110 |
| By: | Hernandez, Paola Buitrago; Sardon, Daniela Maquera; Nopo Aguilar, Hugo Rolando; Rubiano Matulevich, Eliana Carolina |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes gender disparities in poverty across the life cycle in Latin America and the Caribbean using harmonized household survey data. Although gender gaps in labor market outcomes are well-documented, gendered poverty disparities have remained understudied. The results reveal a gendered poverty penalty that emerges as women enter their prime productive and reproductive years—a penalty that has increased over the past 15 years. The presence of young children significantly increases the likelihood of poverty in a household. Single-mother households and those with sole or no earners face particularly high vulnerability. To explore the determinants of the gendered poverty penalty, the paper identifies four relevant groups of individuals and applies a Kitagawa-Binder-Oaxaca decomposition. The results indicate that, beyond the presence of children at home and women’s age, unobserved factors (including potential discrimination) are behind most of the gap. These findings emphasize the critical role of household composition and life cycle factors, particularly family arrangements. |
| Date: | 2025–11–17 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:11260 |
| By: | Sonia Falconieri; Marcelo Ortiz; Francisco Urzua; Paolo Volpin |
| Abstract: | Since Norway’s board gender reform in 2003, many European countries have introduced gender targets for the boards of listed firms. We examine how these regulations affected the gender of newly appointed chief executive officers (CEOs) in private firms. Using crosscountry and industry-level variation in exposure to the reform, we document an 8 to 13 percent increase in the number of appointments of female CEOs in industries with listed firms subject to the reforms, and no change in industries without such exposure. The effect is stronger in countries with mandatory quotas and where board appointments are more salient. The results indicate that board gender regulations generated positive spillover effects beyond the targeted listed firms, increasing the representation of women in top executive positions in private firms; however, they did not lead to a broader country-level cultural shift. |
| Keywords: | Board quotas, female CEOs, private firms |
| JEL: | G14 G34 |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:upf:upfgen:1926 |
| By: | Yishan Shi (University College Dublin); Kiyoshi Taniguchi (Asian Development Bank) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the economic costs of caregiving for women in Pakistan, with a focus on the caregiving wage penalty and its variation across the wage distribution and between urban and rural contexts. Using nationally representative data from the Pakistan Social and Living Standards Measurement Survey 2019–2020, the analysis combines Propensity Score Matching (PSM), Ordinary Least Squares (OLS), Recentered Influence Function (RIF) regressions, and RIF–Oaxaca decompositions. PSM estimates indicate that female caregivers earn approximately 44% less than comparable non-caregivers, while OLS results confirm a penalty of around 48%. Extending the analysis to the intensive margin, each additional child is associated with a wage reduction of approximately 12%, although the effect diminishes with increasing family size. The presence of a young child (aged 0–6) results in a significant penalty, whereas the presence of older children does not affect earnings. RIF–OLS estimates reveal that penalties are not uniform: at the 10th quantile, caregivers earn 67%–73% less than noncaregivers, with the gap narrowing to about 21%–28% at the 90th quantile. The RIF– Oaxaca decomposition highlights a persistent rural disadvantage, with total rural–urban caregiving gaps ranging from 16% to 24%, driven by both weaker endowments (lower schooling and agricultural employment) and lower returns to those characteristics. These findings demonstrate that caregiving responsibilities impose a substantial and unequal wage penalty on women, with the heaviest burden falling on low-income and rural mothers. |
| Keywords: | women;gender inequality;wage penalty;child penalty;socioeconomic challenges;Pakistan;policy interventions |
| JEL: | J13 J31 O15 R28 |
| Date: | 2025–11–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:adbewp:021755 |
| By: | Liu, Yan; Wang, He; Yu, Shu |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the causal impact of generative artificial intelligence on U.S. labor demand using online job posting data. Exploiting ChatGPT’s release in November 2022 as an exogenous shock, the paper applies difference-in-differences and event study designs to estimate the job displacement effects of generative artificial intelligence. The identification strategy compares labor demand for occupations with high versus low artificial intelligence substitution vulnerability following ChatGPT’s launch, conditioning on similar generative artificial intelligence exposure levels to isolate substitution effects from complementary uses. The analysis uses 285 million job postings collected by Lightcast from the first quarter of 2018 to the second quarter of 2025Q2. The findings show that the number of postings for occupations with above-median artificial intelligence substitution scores fell by an average of 12 percent relative to those with below-median scores. The effect increased from 6 percent in the first year after the launch to 18 percent by the third year. Losses were particularly acute for entry-level positions that require neither advanced degrees (18 percent) nor extensive experience (20 percent), as well as those in administrative support (40 percent) and professional services (30 percent). Although generative artificial intelligence generates new occupations and enhances productivity, which may increase labor demand, early evidence suggests th at some occupations may be less likely to be complemented by generative artificial intelligence than others. |
| Date: | 2025–11–18 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:11263 |
| By: | Taiyo Fukai; Keisuke Kawata; Mizuki Komura; Takahiro Toriyabe |
| Abstract: | This study analyzes the gender gap in desired wages using large administrative data of public job referrals, which allows us to look at the desired salaries of individuals from a wider wage distribution. We conduct a decomposition analysis using available information on age, desired work region, and desired occupation. We find that of the three factors, desired occupation is the most important in generating differences in desired wages; however, the residuals are the largest outside of the three factors. To further probe the unexplained residuals, we also conduct heterogeneity and sensitivity analyses using the available data. |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2511.03252 |
| By: | Salvatore Viola (AQR-IREA, University of Barcelona); Ernest Miguelez (AQR-IREA, University of Barcelona); Rosina Moreno (AQR-IREA, University of Barcelona); Davide Consoli (Universitat Politècnica de València - CSIC-UPV); François Perruchas (Universitat Politècnica de València) |
| Abstract: | One important factor in addressing climate change is the development and deployment of environmental-related, or green, technologies (GT). Environmental-related technologies are distinct, requiring specific conditions to be developed which vary depending on their relative level of technological maturity. Recent studies have focused on the role of migrant inventors in creating these conditions and spurring regional diversification into new technological domains. Regional diversification helps regions avoid lock-in and even escape fossil fuel dependencies. While the contribution of migrants to science and innovation is well documented, less attention has been given to migrants and diversification, especially in the case of GT and along the technological life cycle. In this study, we investigate the role of US-based migrant inventors in regional GT diversification using patent data from the USPTO between the year 1990 and 2012. We find that migrant inventors are positively associated with regional GT diversification, partly as a result of their previous patenting experience as well as the specializations of their countries of origin. With regard to the technological life cycle, while geographically diffused technologies rely on corresponding inventor experience, emergent technological diversification benefits from inventors from specialized countries. These findings highlight the bridging role that migrant inventors in international knowledge transfer and their importance in regional diversification in particular environmental-related technologies. |
| Keywords: | Regional Diversification; Green Technology; Immigration; Technological Life Cycle JEL classification:O33; Q55; J61; R11 |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aqr:wpaper:202508 |
| By: | Ferreira, Francisco H. G.; Brunori, Paolo; Neidhöfer, Guido; Salas-Rojo, Pedro; Sirugue, Louis |
| Abstract: | This chapter argues that relative measures of intergenerational mobility and inequality of opportunity are closely related ways of quantifying the inheritability of inequality. We review both literatures for Latin America, looking both at income and educational persistence. We document very high levels of intergenerational persistence and inequality of opportunity for education, with inherited characteristics predicting 29% to 52% of the current-generation variance in years of schooling. Inherited circumstances are somewhat less predictive of educational achievement, measured through standardized test scores, accounting for 20% to 30% of their variance. Our estimates of inequality of opportunity for income acquisition suggest that between 46% to 66% of contemporary income Gini coefficients can be predicted by a relatively narrow set of inherited circumstances, making Latin America a region of high inequality inheritability by international standards. Our review also finds a very wide range of intergenerational income elasticity estimates, with substantial uncertainty driven by data challenges and methodological differences. |
| Keywords: | inherited inequality; intergenerational mobility; inequality of opportunity; Latin America |
| JEL: | D31 I39 J62 O15 |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:130163 |
| By: | Chakraborty, Lekha (National Institute of Public Finance and Policy); Pillai, Shikha (National Institute of Public Finance and Policy) |
| Abstract: | Against the backdrop of United Nations Office for Outer Space Affairs' (UNOOSA’s) 2025 Landmark Study, which documents women's 30 percent global workforce share in public space agencies—declining to 19 percent on boards—this paper applies gender budgeting framework to diagnose fiscal policy imperatives in the Department of Space (DoS), India. Aligning with the foundational principles of the UN Outer Space Treaty (1967), which mandates equitable benefits from space exploration "for all people, " and with Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) 4 (quality education), 5 (gender equality), 9 (industry, innovation, and infrastructure), and 17 (partnerships for the goals), this analysis underscores the role of gender budgeting as a fiscal multiplier for inclusive growth in emerging space economies. Despite the absence of specifically targeted programmes for women in the space sector within the Ministry of Finance’s Gender Budgeting Statement 2025-26, our ex-post fiscal incidence analysis reveals that ISRO's significant achievements are inherently women-inclusive in their outcomes, despite workforce underrepresentation. We analysed the Space budgets across the space centres in India, and also across sanctioned Space projects to understand the fiscal incidence and marksmanship in space technology (e.g., launch vehicles, propulsion systems) and space applications (e.g., Earth observation, communication satellites). Key findings highlight marked variations in resource utilisation efficiency: utilisation rates ranged from a low of 10.9 percent at IN-SPACe—reflecting nascent private-sector integration challenges—to 21 percent at VSSC and 32 percent at URSC, where mature R&D pipelines drive higher absorption. Given the outcome of Space programmes including Earth Observation (EO) programmes and communication satellites for climate resilience have demographic than behavioural access, the units utilised patterns across income quintiles determine the fiscal incidence. Integrating results-linked gender budgeting into space policy thus emerges as a dual lever for equity—ensuring women's voice in high impact decision-making—and efficiency, by harnessing diverse perspectives to optimise resource allocation and innovation trajectories. |
| Keywords: | Gender budgeting ; space sector ; fiscal incidence ; Sustainable Development Goals |
| JEL: | H50 J16 O38 Q55 |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:npf:wpaper:25/439 |
| By: | Patrick Hendy (Reserve Bank of Australia) |
| Abstract: | China's ageing population is expected to slow the country's economic growth in coming years. Population ageing can have a negative effect on a country's growth due to the decline in the working-age population relative to the dependent population, and could cause decreased labour productivity growth, as has been the case in other countries which have experienced similar demographic shifts. This paper seeks to estimate the causal effect of ageing on GDP per capita growth in China using data among China's provinces. I find that over 10 years a 10 per cent increase in the proportion of the population aged over 60 decreases nominal GDP per capita by around 7 per cent, all other things equal. These estimates imply that an ageing population has placed downward pressure on China's economic growth in the 2010s and 2020s so far, with this pressure likely to continue in the coming years. Authorities have so far responded to this challenge by increasing retirement ages and introducing policies such as a nationwide childcare subsidy. Different sectors in the economy are not likely to be affected uniformly by population ageing. I find that an increase in the old-age ratio increases the contribution of services (excluding real estate) to output, and decreases the contribution of construction. |
| Keywords: | China; demographics; economic growth |
| JEL: | J11 N35 |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rba:rbardp:rdp2025-08 |