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on Labour Economics |
| By: | Mark Borgschulte; Heepyung Cho; Darren Lubotsky; Jonathan L. Rothbaum |
| Abstract: | We estimate the causal impacts of immigration to U.S. cities on the intergenerational economic mobility of children of U.S.-born parents. Immigration raises the educational attainment and earnings among individuals who grew up in poorer households and reduces the earnings, educational attainment, and employment among those who grew up in more affluent households. On net, immigration diminishes the link between parents' and their children's economic outcomes in the receiving population, and thus increases intergenerational mobility. The increase in mobility is strikingly similar in models estimated across cities and in within-city models that control for the trajectories of immigrant destinations. |
| JEL: | J15 J31 J62 |
| Date: | 2025–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33961 |
| By: | Chen, Natalie (Department of Economics, University of Warwick, CAGE, CESifo, and CEPR); Novy, Dennis (Department of Economics, University of Warwick, CAGE, CESifo, CEP/LSE, and CEPR); Solórzano, Diego (Banco de México) |
| Abstract: | In 2018 and 2019, the US administration increased tari¤s on imports from China. Did these tariffs lead to more US imports from other countries such as Mexico? Using highly disaggregated data on the universe of Mexican firm-level exports, we find evidence of trade diversion from China to Mexico. We then combine the export data with detailed longitudinal employer-employee data to investigate the impact of trade diversion on labor market outcomes for workers employed by Mexican exporters. We find that trade diversion increased the labor demand of exporters exposed to US tariffs against China, resulting in more employment and higher wages, especially for low-wage workers such as female, unskilled, younger, and non-permanently insured employees. The effects were concentrated in technology and skill-intensive manufacturing industries. JEL Codes: F12 ; F14 ; L11. |
| Keywords: | Employment ; exports ; firms ; tariffs ; trade costs ; trade diversion ; wages ; workers |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wrk:warwec:1563 |
| By: | Isaac Sorkin |
| Abstract: | This paper develops a framework to quantify racial disparities in earnings and employment that are not plausibly due to differences in productivity. Over an employment cycle, employers learn about worker productivity and workers move to more productive and less prejudiced employers. I use implications of this behavior to match high-tenure Black and white workers on unobservables. I look at matched pairs who lose their jobs in a mass layoff. Gaps in earnings and separations between these workers in their next jobs are not plausibly due to differences in productivity. Using U.S. data, earnings differences between these matched workers are five log points, about a quarter of the racial earnings gap among high-tenure workers. Similarly, matched Black workers are more likely to separate. |
| JEL: | J30 J63 J71 |
| Date: | 2025–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33946 |
| By: | Stephen P. Utkus; Olivia S. Mitchell |
| Abstract: | Extensions in human longevity are prompting a growing interest in maximizing healthspan, or the number of years of life unencumbered by the chronic diseases of old age. This chapter reviews recent research on healthy life extension, including several measures and determinants of longer healthspans. We also provide an overview of recent efforts by medical and business enterprises to enhance longevity and healthspan, followed by a discussion of policy and workplace options to foster healthier lives. Such efforts hold the promise of improving quality of life, expanding labor supply, and lowering the cost of health care costs associated with population aging. |
| JEL: | I12 I24 J11 J14 J16 |
| Date: | 2025–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33992 |
| By: | Sigurd Galaasen; Andreas R. Kostøl; Joan Monras; Jonathan Vogel |
| Abstract: | What is the effect of immigration on native labor-market outcomes? An extensive literature identifies the differential impact of immigration on natives employed in jobs that are more exposed to immigrant labor (supply exposure). But immigrants consume in addition to producing output. Despite this, no literature identifies the impact on natives employed in jobs that are more exposed to immigrant consumption (demand exposure). We study native labor-market effects of supply and demand exposures to immigration. Theoretically, we formalize both measures of exposure and solve for their effects on native wages. Empirically, we combine employer-employee data with a newly collected dataset covering electronic payments for the universe of residents in Norway to measure supply and demand exposures of all native workers to immigration induced by EU expansions in 2004 and 2007. We find large, positive, and persistent effects of demand exposure to EU expansion on native worker income. |
| JEL: | F0 J0 |
| Date: | 2025–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33930 |
| By: | Tsegay Tekleselassie (Wellesley College); Marc Witte (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam and Tinbergen Institute); Jonas Radbruch (Humboldt University Berlin); Lukas Hensel (Peking University); Ingo E. Isphording (IZA Institute of Labor Economics) |
| Abstract: | We conduct a field experiment with job seekers to investigate how feedback influences job search and labor market outcomes. Job seekers who receive feedback on their ability compared to other job seekers update their beliefs and increase their search effort. Specifically, initially underconfident individuals intensify their job search. In contrast, overconfident individuals do not adjust their behavior. Moreover, job seekers' willingness-to-pay (WTP) for feedback predicts treatment effects: only among underconfident individuals with positive WTP, we observe significant increases in both search effort and search success. We present suggestive evidence that this pattern arises from heterogeneity in how job seekers perceive the relevance of relative cognitive ability to job search returns. While the intervention appears cost-effective, job seekers' WTP remains insufficient to cover its costs. |
| Keywords: | job search, overconfidence, feedback, willingness-to-pay, field experiment |
| JEL: | C93 J22 J24 J64 |
| Date: | 2025–03–14 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tin:wpaper:20250019 |
| By: | Clément Nedoncelle; Léa Marchal; Amandine Aubry; Jérôme Héricourt |
| Abstract: | The impact of immigration on native workers’ wages has been a long-standing debate in labour and international economics. This meta-analysis synthesises findings from 88 studies published between 1985 and 2023, providing a comprehensive assessment of reduced-form estimates of the wage effect of immigration. Our results align with the existing literature, showing that the average wage effect is centred around zero, with substantial heterogeneity across studies. We highlight the critical role of contexts and methodological choices in shaping wage estimates. In particular, we find that shift-share instrumental variables correct for an upward bias of the OLS. Our findings emphasise the need for replication studies and greater transparency in methodological choices. |
| Keywords: | Immigration;Labour Market;Meta-Analysis;Wage |
| JEL: | C80 J61 J15 J31 |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cii:cepidt:2025-07 |
| By: | Gentile, Elisabetta; Kohli, Nikita; Subramanian, Nivedhitha; Tirmazee, Zunia; Vyborny, Kate |
| Abstract: | Gender gaps in labor market outcomes persist in South Asia. An open question is whether supply- or demand-side constraints play a larger role. This paper investigates this using matched data from three sources in Lahore, Pakistan: representative samples of jobseekers and employers, administrative data from a job matching platform, and an incentivized binary choice experiment. Employers’ gender restrictions are a larger constraint on women’s job opportunities than supply-side decisions. This demand-side gap in the quantity of job opportunities closes as education levels increase and jobs become more “white-collar.” |
| Date: | 2025–06–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:11142 |
| By: | Davide M. Coluccia |
| Abstract: | I examine the impact of the Progressive-era Settlement movement on immigrant assimilation in the United States between 1880 and 1940. Settlements provided services such as job training and childcare to immigrants. Using an individual-level triple difference strategy based on cross-cohort and over-time variation in settlement exposure, I find that settlements increased labor force participation and income for men but not for women. These responses persisted into the generation exposed to settlements during childhood. The gendered effects stem from increased fertility and in-group marriage that excluded women from labor markets, particularly among immigrants from countries with more conservative gender norms. |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:not:notnic:2025-03 |
| By: | Melissa Schettini Kearney; Phillip B. Levine |
| Abstract: | This paper considers why fertility has fallen to historically low levels in virtually all high-income countries. Using cohort data, we document rising childlessness at all observed ages and falling completed fertility. This cohort perspective underscores the need to explain long-run shifts in fertility behavior. We review existing research and conclude that period-based explanations focused on short-term changes in income or prices cannot explain the widespread decline. Instead, the evidence points to a broad reordering of adult priorities with parenthood occupying a diminished role. We refer to this phenomenon as “shifting priorities” and propose that it likely reflects a complex mix of changing norms, evolving economic opportunities and constraints, and broader social and cultural forces. We review emerging evidence on all these factors. We conclude the paper with suggestions for future research and a brief discussion of policy implications. |
| JEL: | I12 J13 |
| Date: | 2025–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33989 |
| By: | Chiswick, Barry; Corman, Hope; Dave, Dhaval; Reichman, Nancy E. |
| Abstract: | This study analyzes, for the first time, the effect of increases in the minimum wage on the labor market outcomes of working age adults with cognitive disabilities, a vulnerable and low-skilled sector of the actual and potential labor pool. Using data from the American Community Survey (2008-2023), we estimated effects of the minimum wage on employment, labor force participation, weeks worked, and hours worked among working age individuals with cognitive disabilities using a generalized difference-in-differences research design. We found that a higher effective minimum wage leads to reduced employment and labor force participation among individuals with cognitive disabilities but has no significant effect on labor supply at the intensive margin for this group. Adverse impacts were particularly pronounced for those with lower educational attainment. In contrast, we found no significant labor market effects of an increase in the minimum wage for individuals with physical disabilities or in the non-disabled population. |
| Keywords: | Cognitive Disability, Employment, Labor Market Outcomes, American Community Survey |
| JEL: | J14 J2 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:1630 |
| By: | Chloe Gibbs; Jocelyn S. Wikle; Riley Wilson |
| Abstract: | We leverage pronounced changes in the availability of public schooling for young children—through duration expansions to the kindergarten day—to better understand how an implicit childcare subsidy affects mothers and families. Exploiting full-day kindergarten variation across place and time from 1992 through 2022 and novel data on state-level policy changes, combined with a comparison of children of typical kindergarten age to older children, we measure effects on parental labor supply and family childcare expenses. Results suggest that families are responsive to these shifts. Full-day kindergarten expansions were responsible for as much as 24 percent of the growth in employment of mothers with kindergarten-aged children in this time frame. |
| JEL: | H75 I28 J13 J22 |
| Date: | 2025–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33948 |
| By: | Morien El Haj; Axana Dalle; Elsy Verhofstadt; Luc Van Ootegem; Stijn Baert (-) |
| Abstract: | This letter contributes to the literature on gender disparities in professional life by exploring how men and women perceive the impact of parenthood on career outcomes. It does so through the lens of perceived employer-given opportunities (‘chances’) and perceived own career-related behaviour (‘choices’). We focus on how employees perceive this impact not only on their own careers but also on those of other parents. To this end, we survey a probability sample of 1, 060 employees in Belgium. We find that fathers perceive a less negative impact of parenthood on their own careers than mothers do, in terms of both chances and choices. Additionally, mothers perceive greater career penalties for other mothers than they report for themselves. These insights are valuable in understanding how self-fulfilling prophecies may shape parents’ careers. |
| Keywords: | Motherhood, Fatherhood, Discrimination, Career, Survey |
| JEL: | C83 J13 J17 J71 |
| Date: | 2025–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rug:rugwps:25/1116 |
| By: | Bagues, Manuel (University of Warwick); Zinovyeva, Natalia (University of Warwick) |
| Abstract: | Gender segregation in higher education persists across developed countries and is paradoxically stronger in wealthier, more gender-equal societies. Using data from over 500, 000 children across 37 Western countries, we show that this segregation has roots in childhood. We document a strong correlation at the country level between segregation in higher education and in childhood friendships. Longitudinal data from 10, 000 British households further shows that children with fewer opposite-sex friends at age 7 are significantly more likely to select gender-dominated educational subjects a decade later. The stronger segregation observed in richer countries seems to reflect economic prosperity rather than backlash against gender equality: while children from wealthier households report fewer cross-gender friendships, those whose parents hold more gender-egalitarian views have more opposite-sex friends. We identify two mechanisms explaining this income gradient: affluent families’ structured activities that emphasize children’s self-expression foster gender-segregated environments, and higher-income children’s personality traits reduce demand for cross-gender friendships. |
| Keywords: | gender equality paradox, cross-gender friendships, women in STEM |
| JEL: | J16 I21 Z13 |
| Date: | 2025–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17988 |
| By: | Matsukura, Rikiya (Nihon University); Oshio, Takashi (Hitotsubashi University); Ueno, Yuko (Hitotsubashi University); Usui, Emiko (Hitotsubashi University) |
| Abstract: | Using original survey data from parents of children in kindergarten through junior high school in Tokyo, Japan, we find that parents exhibit stronger preferences for sons over daughters to participate in extracurricular STEM activities, with the gender gap widening as children age. Parents aspiring for their children to pursue STEM degrees prioritize science classes more, a preference more often directed toward boys. These gendered differences affect children’s early exposure to science. Since Japanese students choose between science and humanities tracks by eleventh grade, early disparities may limit girls’ opportunities. Promoting equal STEM access is crucial to reducing these gender gaps. |
| Keywords: | gender, STEM, science learning, Japan |
| JEL: | A21 I24 J13 J16 |
| Date: | 2025–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17982 |
| By: | Berlanda, Andrea (University of Padua); Lodigiani, Elisabetta (University of Padova); Rocco, Lorenzo (University of Padova) |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we use the Survey of Health, Ageing, and Retirement in Europe (SHARE), complemented with register data on the share of the foreign population in the European regions, to examine the effects of migration on the level of informal care provided by children to their senior parents. Our main results show that migration decreases informal care among daughters with a university degree, while it increases the provision of informal care among daughters with low-to-medium levels of education. Viceversa, migration has practically no effect on sons' care provision who remain little involved in care activities. These results depend on the combination of two supply effects. First, migration increases the supply of domestic and personal services, making formal care more affordable and available. Second, as immigrants compete with low-to-medium-educated native workers, while improve the labor market opportunities of the better educated, the supply of informal care can increase among the less educated daughters and decrease among the more educated. |
| Keywords: | immigration, home production, caregiving, Europe |
| JEL: | F22 J14 J22 |
| Date: | 2025–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17984 |
| By: | Noame Khaldi; Mehdi Guelmamen |
| Abstract: | The question of social mobility, particularly in deindustrialized regions, is a central issue in understanding contemporary economic and social dynamics. This article examines how regional contexts influence the social trajectories of workers. Using intergenerational mobility tables and an econometric strategy mobilizing a control function, we assess the impact of geographic and social origins on workers’ opportunities for upward social mobility. A combination of economic, geographic and social factors influences their upward social mobility. Geographic and crossborder mobility is a key factor in the upward social mobility of working-class people. These findings help to shed the light on the role of regional disparities and border mobility in structuring socioeconomic inequalities. |
| Keywords: | Social mobility, geographic mobility, social classes, cross-border work. |
| JEL: | A14 J21 J61 P51 Z13 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ulp:sbbeta:2025-17 |
| By: | Martha J. Bailey |
| Abstract: | The neoclassical economics of childbearing turns 65 this year, marking the anniversary of Gary Becker’s foundational article on the subject in 1960. This review article begins with a study of how childbearing has evolved in the United States over the last century, identifying distinctive features of the post-1960 era. Next, the article discusses standard neoclassical models of childbearing and shows how augmenting them with a supply side, which includes access to and information about contraception and abortion, increases their explanatory power. After reviewing recent quasi-experimental research testing this augmented model, the final part of the article reflects upon the implications of the recent transformation in US fertility rates for women and children and suggests fruitful avenues for future research. |
| JEL: | J01 J10 |
| Date: | 2025–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33970 |
| By: | Nassal, Lea (University of Warwick) |
| Abstract: | This paper provides the first evidence of the long-term effects of job loss on age at retirement, pension benefits and lifetime income. Exploiting plant closures and using German administrative data, I compare displaced workers with similar non-displaced workers. I show that displaced workers delay their retirement in response to the shock and ineligibility for early pension claims is the main driver of this response. Despite adjustments in retirement behavior, displaced workers face significant losses in pension benefits and lifetime income. Compared to similar non-displaced workers, displaced workers experience losses in the present discounted value of their lifetime income of 25%. |
| Keywords: | job loss ; plant closure ; retirement JEL codes: J18 ; J26 ; J63 ; J65 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wrk:warwec:1565 |
| By: | Saman Darougheh; Renato Faccini; Leonardo Melosi; Alessandro Villa |
| Abstract: | We develop a model where heterogeneous agents choose whether to engage in on-the-job search (OJS) to improve labor income. The model accounts for untargeted microdata patterns: fiscal incentives affect job-to-job mobility and wage growth of stayers—but not leavers—across the income distribution, pointing to OJS as a key driver of labor costs. Calibrated to micro and macro moments, the model shows that OJS cost shocks significantly affect real activity and inflation. The permanent decline in OJS costs—driven by ICT and AI-based tools—offers a novel explanation for the weakening of the unemployment-inflation relationship documented in empirical studies. |
| Keywords: | Job ladder; Inflation; Wages; Tax incentives |
| JEL: | E31 J64 E12 |
| Date: | 2025–06–23 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedhwp:101279 |
| By: | Mark Budolfson; Michael Geruso; Kevin J. Kuruc; Dean Spears; Sangita Vyas |
| Abstract: | A smaller human population would emit less carbon, other things equal, but how large is the effect? Here we test the widely-shared view that an important benefit of the ongoing, global decline in fertility will be reductions in long-run temperatures. We contrast a baseline of global depopulation (the most likely future) with a counterfactual in which the world population continues to grow for two more centuries. Although the two population paths differ by billions of people in 2200, we find that the implied temperatures would differ by less than one tenth of a degree C—far too small to impact climate goals. Timing drives the result. Depopulation is coming within the 21st century, but not for decades. Fertility shifts take generations to meaningfully change population size, by which time per capita emissions are projected to have significantly declined, even under pessimistic policy assumptions. Meanwhile, a smaller population slows the non-rival innovation that powers improvements in long-run productivity and living standards, an effect we estimate to be quantitatively important. Once the possibility of large-scale net-negative emissions is accounted for, even the sign of the population-temperature link becomes ambiguous. Humans cause greenhouse gas emissions, but human depopulation, starting in a few decades, will not meet today’s climate challenges. |
| JEL: | J11 J13 O30 O40 Q54 |
| Date: | 2025–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33932 |
| By: | Christina M. Gibson-Davis; Lisa A. Keister; Lisa A. Gennetian; Shuyi Qiu |
| Abstract: | Very low household wealth, or net worth poverty (NWP), is the modal form of poverty for American children, yet little is understood about how it is experienced across childhood or its associations with children’s human capital accumulation. Using data from the 1999-2021 waves of the Panel Study of Income Dynamics on a cohort of children followed from birth to age 20, this study examines the influence of NWP exposure and duration across a child’s life course on high school graduation and college attendance. Findings show that through age 18, children experienced more frequent and enduring spells of net worth poverty than income poverty. NWP was negatively associated with high school graduation and college attendance independent of the effects of income poverty. Effects were more pronounced for college attendance than for high school graduation, perhaps reflecting the resource-intensive nature of college. The negative effects of NWP were most pronounced for the 31% of the sample that was NWP for at least four waves. The timing of NWP relative to developmental stage did not seem to matter, as children were at risk regardless of the age at which they experienced net worth poverty. |
| JEL: | D1 D14 G51 I3 J13 |
| Date: | 2025–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33959 |
| By: | Jan Bena (Sauder School of Business, University of British Columbia); Andrew Ellul (Indiana University, CSEF, CEPR and ECGI.); Marco Pagano (University of Naples Federico II, CSEF and EIEF.); Valentina Rutigliano (Sauder School of Business, University of British Columbia) |
| Abstract: | Entrepreneurs with more diversified portfolios of private firms provide more insurance against labor income risk: in a sample of over 524, 000 Canadian firms and 858, 000 owners, firms owned by such entrepreneurs offer more stable jobs and earnings to employees. In firms whose owners’ portfolios are one standard deviation more diversified, the passthrough rates of foreign sales shocks to layoffs and labor earnings are 13% and 41% lower, respectively. These entrepreneurs reduce their own compensation and increase firm leverage to fund labor income insurance. Enhanced insurance is associated with better retention of valuable human capital and fewer costly terminations, potentially improving firm performance. |
| Keywords: | labor income risk; portfolio diversification; firm shocks. |
| JEL: | G32 J30 J63 L20 |
| Date: | 2025–06–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sef:csefwp:754 |
| By: | Boudreau, Laura; Macchiavello, Rocco; Minni, Virginia; Tanaka, Mari |
| Abstract: | Social movements are catalysts for crucial institutional changes. To succeed, they must coordinate members’ views (consensus building) and actions (mobilization). We study union leaders within Myanmar’s burgeoning labor movement. Union leaders are positively selected on both ability and personality traits that enable them to influence others, yet they earn lower wages. In group discussions about workers’ views on an upcoming national minimum wage negotiation, randomly embedded leaders build consensus around the union’s preferred policy. In an experiment that mimics individual decision-making in a collective action setup, leaders increase mobilization through coordination. |
| Keywords: | leaders; unions; consensus building; mobilization; field experiments |
| JEL: | D91 J38 J51 O15 |
| Date: | 2025–06–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:126113 |