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on Labour Economics |
| By: | Kuhn, Andreas (Swiss Federal University for Vocational Education and Training) |
| Abstract: | Women have caught up significantly with men in recent decades, but occupational choices remain stubbornly segregated by gender. One particularly popular hypothesis postulates that societal gender norms are the key factor explaining this phenomenon. I attempt to test the validity of this claim as directly as possible in this paper, using a unique combination of different data sources. Data covering the full stock of apprenticeship contracts active in the school year 2021/22 allows me to construct geographically disaggregated measures of occupational segregation, and I use local results from five national-level votes on gender-related policies to construct a measure of local gender norms. The data reveal that there is a statistically significant and practically relevant association between local gender norms and the regional extent of occupational segregation, with more progressive norms associated with less segregation. However, further analyses, carried out by leveraging two distinct identification strategies, point to a small and ultimately insignificant effect of gender norms on occupational segregation once potential confounders are taken into account. |
| Keywords: | occupational choice, occupational segregation, gender norms, apprenticeship, culture, spatial analysis, language border, geographic quasi-experiment |
| JEL: | D91 J16 J24 |
| Date: | 2026–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18975 |
| By: | Mantel, Isabella (FAU Erlangen-Nürnberg); Riphahn, Regina (FAU Erlangen-Nuremberg) |
| Abstract: | Demographic aging causes substantial worker shortages. So far, policy debates neglect the aspect of age at labor market entry. We study the age at which young individuals first enter the labor market and how it has developed over the last four decades. Based on long-running administrative data, we describe birth cohorts from 1960 through 2000, and separately consider different types of employment entry. We investigate the entry age distribution and heterogeneities across demo-graphic groups. We find that conditional on employment, the median age of first holding a stable full-time employment increased by almost 4 years between the birth cohorts 1960 and 1995. Our decomposition analysis yields that more than one quarter of this increase is explained by higher educational attainment and the rising share of non-German workers, which appear to be the main mechanisms behind the delay in labor market entry. Additionally accounting for changed occupations, industry composition, and relative entry-level earnings explains about 40 percent of the ob-served delay in labor market entry. The role of different mechanisms varies across the types of employment entry. |
| Keywords: | demographic aging, age at labor market entry, administrative data |
| JEL: | J11 J21 I28 |
| Date: | 2026–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18980 |
| By: | Pineda-Hernandez, Kevin (ULB (CEBRIG, DULBEA), UMONS (Soci&ter)); Rycx, François (Free University of Brussels); Volral, Mélanie (UMONS (Soci&ter) and ULB (CEBRIG, DULBEA)) |
| Abstract: | Although an increasing body of literature has examined the relationship between firms’ profitability and wage inequality in the context of a diverse workforce, the role of rent sharing in explaining origin-based wage differentials has yet to be explored. Our paper aims to fill this gap using detailed Belgian matched employer-employee data from 1999 to 2016. After controlling for a wide range of covariates and addressing endogeneity issues, our estimates show that the wage-profit elasticity equals approximately 3% and does not differ statistically between native and immigrant workers, be they first or second generation. However, Oaxaca-Blinder decompositions suggest that rent sharing has a significant influence on immigrants’ wages through labour market segregation. Specifically, first-generation immigrants are found to earn lower wages than natives because of their higher concentration in firms with lower profit margins. The same is true for second-generation immigrants, but almost half as much. These findings, corroborated and refined by heterogeneity tests according to gender, educational attainment and level of collective bargaining, support the hypothesis of a segmented assimilation process for immigrants. |
| Keywords: | rent sharing, natives, first- and second-generation immigrants, matched employer-employee data, wage decompositions, instrumental variables |
| JEL: | C26 J15 J16 J31 J61 |
| Date: | 2026–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18981 |
| By: | Klara Kantova; Tomas Havranek; Zuzana Irsova; Jiri Schwarz |
| Abstract: | This paper presents the first comprehensive meta-analysis of the elasticity of substitution between native and immigrant labor, drawing on 1, 091 estimates from 41 studies. We find strong evidence of selective reporting: less precise estimates are systematically associated with lower reported elasticities. Correcting for this bias using meta-regression and selection methods raises the implied elasticity from about 13 to about 22, implying about 40% less relative-wage pressure from immigration than uncorrected results suggest. Bayesian and frequentist model averaging show that heterogeneity is driven mainly by geographic scale, data granularity, and whether the sample is restricted to low-experience workers, while the choice between log mean wages and mean log wages plays a secondary role. Our best-practice estimates, which net out publication bias and prioritize the most granular data, imply an elasticity of about 17 in our baseline regional specification, lower than implied by a simple bias correction but substantially higher than the uncorrected mean. |
| Date: | 2026–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2609.26062 |
| By: | Petra Sauer; Rosa Mulè |
| Abstract: | The expansion of women’s education and employment has transformed labor markets across advanced democracies. Yet comparatively little is known about how educational wage inequality among women has evolved across countries and over time. This article examines wage gaps between college- and non-college-educated women in the United States, Germany, and Sweden between 1991 and 2020. We propose a framework of women’s inequality regimes that captures the interplay between labor market and family policies in shaping women’s economic opportunities and constraints. Drawing on data from the Luxembourg Income Study and using unconditional quantile regression, we analyze both the magnitude of educational wage inequality and the extent to which it is driven by women at the top or bottom of the wage distribution. We find that educational wage inequality is largest in the United States and smallest in Sweden, while Germany occupies an intermediate position but exhibits the most pronounced increase over time. This increase is driven by both rising wages among highly educated women at the top of the wage distribution and the growing concentration of low-educated women at the bottom. Our findings indicate that the institutions facilitating women’s labor market integration also shape women’s inequality regimes, with important implications for social stratification and household inequality. |
| Date: | 2026–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lis:liswps:926 |
| By: | Christine Braun (University of Warwick); Ana Figueiredo (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam) |
| Abstract: | We study how labor market beliefs shape the gender wage gap in an equilibrium search model with endogenous wage setting and hiring, in which workers hold subjective expectations about wage offers, job arrival rates, and separation risk. Using data from the Survey of Consumer Expectations to estimate the model, we find that gender differences in beliefs account for 25% of the gender wage gap. Correcting these beliefs partly narrows the gap but is not welfare-improving, as it reduces lifetime earnings for both men and women. In contrast, equalizing labor market fundamentals substantially reduces the wage gap while increasing women's lifetime earnings. |
| Keywords: | Gender wage gap; Labor market beliefs; Job search |
| JEL: | J16 J31 J64 |
| Date: | 2026–10–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tin:wpaper:20260077 |
| By: | Jha, Natasha (Centre for Advanced Financial Research and Learning); Abel, Martin (Bowdoin College); Piraino, Patrizio (University of Notre Dame) |
| Abstract: | We study how scheduling demands shape gig-work supply and its composition in an experiment with U.S. gig workers, eliciting reservation wages for contracts varying in advance notice, timing, and duration. No-notice contracts raise reservation wages by 13–14 percent, while outside-hours work with notice carries little penalty. Women require 5–6 percent more than men for outside-hours or no-notice work, and 8–9 percent more when combined. These gaps are largest among workers with heavy household-chore burdens and inflexible schedules. Higher-productivity workers also require larger no-notice premiums. At a given wage, demanding contracts therefore reduce labor supply and select a lower-productivity labor pool. |
| Keywords: | scheduling demands, gig economy, gender gap, reservation wages, worker selection |
| JEL: | J22 J16 J31 J41 C93 |
| Date: | 2026–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18976 |
| By: | Michael J. Andrews; Ryan R. Hill; Joseph Price; Riley Wilson |
| Abstract: | Occupation choice is a key determinant of economic mobility. This paper studies how childhood neighbors influence occupational choices and later-life earnings. Using linked historical U.S. census records for over six million boys and four million girls, we reconstruct neighborhood microgeography to identify childhood neighbors and their occupations. We find that living next door to someone in a given occupation increases the probability of working in that same occupation 30 years later by about 10 percent relative to other children on the same street. The transmission effect is higher with more intense exposure, in more connected neighborhoods, and when neighboring families are more similar. Exposure to high-income or highly educated neighbors has lasting economic effects, leading to significant gains in adult income and education even compared to other children from the same street. These findings suggest that neighborhood networks play an important role in shaping intergenerational economic mobility. |
| JEL: | J24 J62 N32 |
| Date: | 2026–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35810 |
| By: | Aspasia Bizopoulou; Elias Einiö; Tuomo Virkola |
| Abstract: | We study the impacts of firm-level pay transparency policy under different collective bargaining settings. We show that firms react to pay transparency requirements by reducing gender gaps, as intended by policy makers, but also by hiring fewer workers to lower-paid positions, which results in overall wage compression. Gender gap reductions are concentrated in firms under collective bargaining agreements, while hiring reductions and wage compression are concentrated in firms less exposed to collective bargaining, where employers have more discretion over individual wages. These results suggest that the effects of pay transparency on workplace inequality depend on labor market institutions. |
| Keywords: | pay transparency, wage inequality, sorting, work satisfaction, discrimination, collective bargaining |
| JEL: | J16 J31 J38 J52 |
| Date: | 2026–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crm:wpaper:26252 |
| By: | Katia Gallegos Torres; Andreas Steinmayr; Valentin Wett |
| Abstract: | This paper studies how local labor market tightness and welfare benefit levels at the time of receiving protection shape refugees' labor market integration and location choices. We exploit a sequence of reforms that generated quasi-random variation in benefit levels, together with variation in local labor market tightness across the districts and months in which refugees receive protection. We find that tighter local labor markets raise employment, while more generous benefits slightly reduce it. These employment effects persist for about 2.5 years, but both shocks have lasting impacts on internal migration. Moreover, the negative employment effect of benefits is larger in tighter labor markets. Neither shock affects the probability of emigrating from Austria. |
| Keywords: | Immigrant integration, refugees, welfare benefits, labor demand |
| JEL: | F22 J31 J61 |
| Date: | 2026–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crm:wpaper:26232 |
| By: | Herbst, Chris (Arizona State University) |
| Abstract: | In November 2025, New Mexico became the first U.S. state to implement a universal, no-cost child care subsidy program. This paper estimates difference-in-differences and event-study models to evaluate the impact of universal child care on mothers' short-run labor supply adjustments. Using monthly Current Population Survey data, I find that the reform produced different responses across lower- and higher-skilled mothers. For lower-skilled mothers, the policy increased employment along both the extensive and intensive margins. Conversely, higher-skilled mothers, particularly those who are married, experienced reductions in paid work, with partially offsetting increases in school enrollment. Thus, while universal child care relaxes a binding constraint among disadvantaged families, it acts as an in-kind transfer for their advantaged counterparts. |
| Keywords: | child care, labor supply, maternal employment |
| JEL: | J13 J22 H75 |
| Date: | 2026–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18968 |
| By: | Mari Tanaka; Hiroko Okudaira; Mariko Sakka; Shintaro Yamaguchi |
| Abstract: | We test whether employers can shift household allocation by targeting men as fathers. Among 1, 225 male employees in four Japanese organizations, we randomized a two-hour work-life balance training and an information treatment correcting misperceptions of colleagues' support. Training increased fathers' weekend childcare by about one hour per day in young-child households and raised spouses' reported paid work; spouses' housework also fell. Training strengthened beliefs that paternity leave benefits workplace functioning but not leave intentions. Information modestly shifted perceived support but affected neither intentions nor information-seeking. Employer training can affect household allocation without changing formal rights or work arrangements. |
| Keywords: | workplace intervention, paternity leave, household time allocation, second-order beliefs, field experiment |
| JEL: | J13 J16 J22 M54 |
| Date: | 2026–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crm:wpaper:26248 |
| By: | Häggkvist, Martin (Department of Economics, Uppsala University) |
| Abstract: | How much are employers willing to pay to sidestep employment protection? I study this in the context of seniority rules, aiming to shield tenured workers from job loss. Using detailed and unique Swedish layoff notification data matched with administrative registers, I identify the set of workers at risk of dismissal and construct counterfactual displacement lists based on the mandated layoff order. I find that workplaces with relatively more productive junior workers are significantly less likely to follow the seniority order. A one-standard-deviation increase in the relative productivity of recent hires reduces compliance by 7.7 percentage points. To circumvent the default order, employers provide higher severance pay and longer advance notice to senior workers, indicating that firms pay for the right to retain more productive workers. These results indicate that seniority rules impose efficiency costs on employers as employment protection is traded for financial compensation. |
| Keywords: | employment protection; seniority rules; productivity; severance pay |
| JEL: | J41 J52 J63 |
| Date: | 2026–09–29 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:ifauwp:2026_020 |
| By: | Petter Lundborg; Adrian Nieto |
| Abstract: | We examine how early exposure to STEM professionals in the local neighborhood shapes children's long run educational and labor market outcomes. To identify causal effects, we use Swedish register data and several sources of variation in exposure to STEM qualified neighbors measured at the 100 by 100 meter grid. Exposure during compulsory education raises children's math performance, and evidence points to social ties as the main channel. It also increases the presence of boys and girls in science programs in high school and university, but mainly boys are more likely to complete a STEM bachelor degree. This gender gap persists into adulthood: STEM employment and earnings rise predominantly for boys. The results show that high skill professionals can serve as community based informal role models and that neighbors can shape long run educational and labor market trajectories. |
| Keywords: | STEM, Science, Neighbors, Role model, Human capital, Labor trajectory |
| JEL: | I2 J2 J3 O3 |
| Date: | 2026–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crm:wpaper:26231 |
| By: | Pavese, Caterina (Università di Bologna); ter Meulen, Simon (University of Munich, ifo Institute); Woessmann, Ludger (University of Munich (LMU)) |
| Abstract: | Does direct integration into native schools or temporary placement in separate schools better promote the education and cultural assimilation of refugee children? In the Netherlands, primary-school-aged refugee children are placed in either integrated or separated schools depending on their randomly assigned municipality. By contrast, all secondary-school-aged arrivals are initially separated. We exploit this institutional setting in two-way fixed-effects models with age-at-arrival and municipality fixed effects. Using rich administrative data, we find that integrated schooling reduces educational attainment at age 18, particularly for children of lower-educated parents. At the same time, integrated schooling increases cultural assimilation, measured by hormonal-contraceptive usage among teenage women, particularly for children from non-Muslim-majority countries. A distinctive feature of separated schooling that may account for its positive educational effect is that it allows employing teachers specialized in native-language teaching for non-native speakers. |
| Keywords: | refugee children, schools, integration, educational attainment, contraceptives |
| JEL: | I24 I21 J13 J15 O15 |
| Date: | 2026–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18979 |
| By: | Akbulut-Yuksel, Mevlude (Dalhousie University); Aydemir, Abdurrahman (Sabanci University); Kirdar, Murat (Koc University); Turan, Belgi (TOBB University of Economics and Technology) |
| Abstract: | We ask whether cultural constraints are a development bottleneck in conservative middle-income economies, limiting women's entry into manufacturing and slowing fertility decline and human-capital accumulation. We exploit the 1989 forced migration of ethnic Turks from Bulgaria to Turkiye. Refugee women shared native women's language, religion, and ethnicity but had much higher employment, especially in manufacturing. We combine difference-in-differences with an instrument based on where the state settled earlier ethnic Turkish migrants. Exposure to refugee women raised native women's participation and employment a decade later, especially in male-dominated tradable manufacturing. Native men saw no significant gains. A one-percentage-point higher refugee-to-native ratio raises native women's manufacturing employment by 0.9 percentage points, about 23 percent of the 1990 mean. Exposure reduced fertility and raised middle-school completion among native girls and boys. The results suggest that an exogenous cultural shock relaxed a binding constraint on women's modern-sector entry, a margin central to structural transformation and demographic transition. Intermarriage and World Values Survey evidence is consistent with this view. |
| Keywords: | structural transformation, demographic transition, cultural barriers, refugees, women's employment, manufacturing |
| JEL: | J16 J13 O11 O14 R23 |
| Date: | 2026–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18983 |
| By: | László Czaller; Virág Ilyés; Gergő Tóth |
| Abstract: | This paper examines whether unemployed workers searching in dense urban labor markets are better able to realize their occupational search goals. We use linked employer–employee administrative data from Hungary that record theoccupation in which unemployed workers primarily seek work and compare these targets with their subsequent occupations. We find that workers searching in denser labor markets are more likely to find employment in their targeted occupation or in some closely related occupation. These results are robust to a rich set of control variables and alternative specifications. To address potential endogeneity concerns, we use historical data on population and railway infrastructure to construct instruments for contemporary employment density. Finally, examining the role of search targets in post-unemployment occupational mobility, we find that denser labor markets are associated with greater occupational continuity among workers who seek to return to their previous occupation, while those seeking to change occupations tend to move to occupations that are more similar to their previous ones in terms of skill requirements. |
| Keywords: | Labormarketdensity, Occupationaltargets, Unemployment, Jobsearch, Matching |
| JEL: | J24 J62 J64 R23 |
| Date: | 2026–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:egu:wpaper:2622 |
| By: | Lajos Tamás Szabó (Magyar Nemzeti Bank (the Central Bank of Hungary)); Ã lmos Telegdy (Corvinus University of Budapest); András Borsos (Magyar Nemzeti Bank (the Central Bank of Hungary), Complexity Science Hub Vienna, Institute for New Economic Thinking, University of Oxford) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines how interfirm trade relationships shape job†to†job mobility along domestic supply chains. Using Hungarian administrative data of firm†to†firm transactions and matched employer–employee records from 2015–2022, we estimate event†study models with dyadic fixed effects and matched non†trading controls. Trade roughly doubles worker mobility between partners, with larger effects for pairs characterized by high trade shares, and when the partner has a high wage, is a superstar, or growing. Downstream mobility always exceeds upstream mobility. We find no consistent differences between high†and low†skill mobility, and mobility along supply chains does not generate systematically higher wage growth. |
| Keywords: | Production Network, Interfirm Worker Mobility, Hungary |
| JEL: | F16 J60 F14 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mnb:wpaper:2026/4 |
| By: | Ellora Derenoncourt (Princeton University and NBER); Francois Gerard (University College London); Lorenzo Lagos (Brown University); Claire Montialoux (Sciences Po) |
| Abstract: | We study the role of union heterogeneity in shaping wages and inequality among unionized workers. Using linked employer-employee data from Brazil and job moves across multi-firm unions, we estimate over 4, 800 union-specific pay premia. Unions explain 3–4% of earnings variation. While unions raise wages on average, the standard deviation in union effects is large (6–7%). Validating our approach, wages fall in markets with higher vs. lower union premia following a nationwide right-to-work law. Linking premia to detailed data on union attributes, we find that unions with strike activity, collective bargaining agreements, internal competition, and skilled leaders secure higher wages. High-premium unions compress wage gaps by education while the average union exacerbates them. Post right-to-work, however, worker support for high-premium unions falls when between-group bargaining differentials are large. Our findings show that unions are not a monolith—their structure and actions shape their wage effects and, consequently, worker support. |
| Keywords: | Brazil |
| JEL: | J31 J51 |
| Date: | 2025–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pri:cepsud:350 |
| By: | Sebastian Y. D. Ernst; Andreas I. Mueller; Johannes Spinnewijn; Joost Bollens |
| Abstract: | This paper evaluates the use of algorithmic risk profiling to direct job search support toward individuals most at risk of long-term unemployment. Using three regression discontinuity designs and rich administrative data from the Flemish Public Employment Service (VDAB) in Belgium, we address two key dimensions: whom and when to target. First, job search counseling raises employment on average, but treatment effects decline sharply with predicted risk. This reveals a fundamental trade-off between targeting those most at risk and those most responsive to intervention. Second, we find no evidence that treatment effects depreciate at the individual level, but strong dynamic selection: as spells lengthen, surviving job seekers have both higher baseline risk and lower treatment responsiveness, with opposing implications for the returns to treatment. We develop and calibrate a conceptual framework for optimal targeting that highlights the key role of the ratio of predicted treatment effects to predicted job-finding probabilities. Targeting rules combining both objects substantially outperform the status quo, yielding welfare gains nearly three times as large as those from random assignment, while targeting on risk scores alone performs worse than random assignment. |
| Keywords: | unemployment, targeting, treatment effect heterogeneity, regression discontinuity, public employment services, machine learning |
| JEL: | J64 J65 H43 C21 |
| Date: | 2026–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crm:wpaper:26245 |
| By: | Edoardo Di Porto; Christian Dustmann; Chiara Giannetto; Lorenzo Incoronato |
| Abstract: | This paper examines how salary caps affect retention and selection of managerial talent in the public sector. We exploit a 2014 reform in Italy that capped top public-sector salaries. Managers affected were about 5 percentage points more likely to move to the private sector. Exit propensity was especially high among executives of state-owned companies, while managers in traditional public administration largely remained in public employment despite substantial pay cuts. Exiting managers were positively selected, reducing average managerial quality in state-owned companies by about 2 percent. The reform generated modest fiscal savings of around 0.1 percent of public-sector labor costs. |
| Keywords: | salary caps, public managers, public-private mobility, state-owned companies |
| JEL: | J45 M54 J31 M52 H83 |
| Date: | 2026–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crm:wpaper:26235 |
| By: | David Neumark; Jyotsana Kala |
| Abstract: | We provide a comprehensive analysis of the effects of minimum wages on blacks, and on the relative impacts on blacks vs. whites. We study not only teenagers - the focus of much of the minimum wage-employment literature - but also broader low-skill groups. We find no evidence that higher minimum wages reduce wage disparities. First, much of our evidence points to job loss effects from higher minimum wages are more evident for blacks - and more so for black men - but not detectable for whites. Second, in many of our analyses the effects of minimum wages are large enough to generate adverse effects on earnings (and relative earnings) of blacks. Third, given strong residential segregation by race in the United States, more adverse effects of minimum wages on blacks would fall on areas with a high black population share, and this appears to be accentuated by evidence that minimum wage effects are more adverse in areas where blacks are a very high share of the population, regardless of individual race. |
| Keywords: | Minimum wages; race |
| JEL: | J23 J38 |
| Date: | 2026–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crm:wpaper:26239 |
| By: | Margaret Leighton (University of St Andrews); Jamin D Speer (University of Memphis) |
| Abstract: | There is a large gender gap in who chooses STEM majors, yet decades of research have failed to explain this gap in its entirety. We use extensive data on incoming college freshmen to estimate the importance of ability (both test-based and self-assessed), life goals, other self-assessed traits, high school courses, and family background in explaining the gender gap in STEM majors. Even with this detailed data, we can explain only 39% of the gender gap. A Gelbach decomposition shows that self-assessed ability (26%) and high school courses (12%) account for the bulk of the explained gap, while goals explain little and in fact controlling for goals slightly widens the gender gap. Goals are similarly uninformative of the gender gap in STEM persistence from freshman to senior year. On the other hand, goals contribute substantially to gender differences in biology and some non-STEM majors, particularly business, education, and health, but remain uninformative of the gap for the majority of STEM subjects. We conclude that while life goals are strongly related to major choice, gender-based differences in these goals are not the missing piece to the STEM gender gap puzzle. |
| Keywords: | STEM; gender gap; major choice; field of study; science degrees |
| JEL: | I23 I24 I26 I21 |
| Date: | 2026–09–15 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:san:econdp:2603 |