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on Labour Economics |
| By: | Giulia Briselli; Libertad González Luna |
| Abstract: | We propose that men’s reluctance to increase their participation in childcare and household chores is an important factor keeping both fertility and women’s employment low in Europe. We first show that, over time, European women express a stronger desire for men increasing their participation in home production. This trend is not observed for men. We propose a toy model of the household that illustrates how men’s refusal to contribute to childcare can have negative effects on both fertility and women’s labor supply. Finally, we use cross-country panel data and a two-way fixed effects specification to show that countries where the gender divergence in attitudes is more pronounced display both lower birth-rates and lower female employment rates. |
| Keywords: | fertility , gender norms , female labor force participation |
| JEL: | J13 J16 J21 |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:upf:upfgen:1916 |
| By: | Jonathan Vogel; Andreas Kost; Sigurd Galaasen; Joan Monràs |
| Abstract: | What is the effect of immigration on native labor-market outcomes? An extensive literature identifies the differential impact of immigration on natives employed in jobs that are more exposed to immigrant labor (supply exposure). But immigrants consume in addition to producing output. Despite this, no literature identifies the impact on natives employed in jobs that are more exposed to immigrant consumption (demand exposure). We study native labor-market effects of supply and demand exposures to immigration. Theoretically, we formalize both measures of exposure and solve for their effects on native wages. Empirically, we combine employer-employee data with a newly collected dataset covering electronic payments for the universe of residents in Norway to measure supply and demand exposures of all native workers to immigration induced by EU expansions in 2004 and 2007. We find large, positive, and persistent effects of demand exposure to EU expansion on native worker income. |
| Keywords: | Immigration |
| JEL: | J2 J61 F22 |
| Date: | 2025–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:upf:upfgen:1908 |
| By: | Hainmueller, Jens; Marbach, Moritz; Hangartner, Dominik; Harder, Niklas; Vallizadeh, Ehsan |
| Abstract: | Governments continue to face challenges integrating refugees into the local labor market, and many past interventions have shown limited impact. This study examines the Job-Turbo program, a large-scale initiative launched by the German government in 2023 to accelerate employment among refugees—primarily individuals from Ukraine and eight other major countries of origin. Using monthly administrative panel data from Germany’s network of public employment service offices and a difference-in-differences design, we find that the program significantly increased both caseworker–refugee contact and job placements over a 23-month follow-up period. Among Ukrainian refugees, the exit-to-job rate nearly doubled. Effects were broad-based—spanning demographic subgroups, unemployment durations, skill levels, regions, and local labor-market conditions—and concentrated in regular, unsubsidized employment. The program also raised both the rate and share of sustained job placements, consistent with improved match quality. Other refugee groups saw meaningful gains as well, but increases in job placements were concentrated among males and in low-skilled jobs, with only limited effects for females. We detect no negative spillovers for German or other immigrant job seekers, finding no signs of either resource reallocation or displacement. The results offer insights for governments responding to displacement crises. They indicate that intensified job-search assistance---embedded within the early stage of integration and implemented at scale through public employment infrastructure---can meaningfully improve refugees' labor-market outcomes, even amid significant arrivals. |
| Date: | 2025–10–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:px9ew_v2 |
| By: | Rong Fu; Neeraj Kaushal; Felix Muchomba |
| Abstract: | We provide new evidence on earnings gaps between non-Hispanic White and three generations of Black workers in the United States during 1995-2024, using nationally representative data. Results reveal remarkable earnings advances among 2nd-generation Black immigrants, opposite to the well-documented widening in overall Black-White earnings gap. Among women, 2nd-generation Black workers have earnings higher than or equal to White women; among men, they earn 10% less at the median, but the gap vanishes at the top decile. The gap for 1st-generation Black men is shrinking, halving at the top decile; for 1st-generation Black women it shows initial widening then shrinking at the median. The native Black-White gap remains stubbornly high. Educational attainment largely drives 2nd-generation success, while residential patterns play a protective role for the 1st and 2nd generations. These findings provide critical data to set the record straight on the accomplishments of the highly successful and rising demography of Black immigrants and their US-born children. |
| JEL: | J0 J15 J3 J31 |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34327 |
| By: | Bingley, Paul (The Danish Centre for Social Science Research); Lanot, Gauthier (Department of Economics, Umeå University) |
| Abstract: | The age structure of employment reflects the relative prices of retaining workers of different ages, and early pension benefits encourage workers to retire before the normal pensionable age, yet little is known about the effects on employment of the young. Using a Danish pension reform, we analyse the relationship between the wages and employment of workers of different ages at the firm level. We find that the reform affected the retirement ages of workers with basic skills – those with the lowest wages and the highest replacement rates post-reform. We estimate the elasticity of substitution between young and old basic skilled workers to be unity; they are perfect substitutes. |
| Keywords: | Pensions; Retirement; Elasticity of Substitution; Instrumental Variables |
| JEL: | I12 I29 J13 |
| Date: | 2025–10–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:umnees:1038 |
| By: | Battiston, Diego; Maurer, Stephan; Potlogea, Andrei; Rodríguez Mora, José Vicente |
| Abstract: | The strong evidence in support of the Great Gatsby Curve (i.e. the negative cross-sectional relationship between intergenerational mobility and inequality) seems to be at odds with the fact that large increases in inequality in the US have not resulted in decreases in mobility. We tackle this puzzle by measuring, for the first time, a dynamic version of the "Great Gatsby Curve" that relates changes in inequality to changes in intergenerational income mobility. We find that across US counties and during the last century the relationship is weak and unstable over relatively short intervals of two decades, but negative and significant over a longer period of almost a century. The historical record suggests that if the large increase of inequality observed in the US does not reverse, this may result in substantially lower socioeconomic mobility in the long term, even if mobility has not decreased yet. |
| Keywords: | ntergenerational Mobility, Inequality, Great Gatsby Curve |
| JEL: | J62 N12 N52 R11 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:cexwps:327983 |
| By: | Michael Waldman (Cornell University); Jan Zabojnik |
| Abstract: | Many models of the CEO market build on the classic analyses of Lucas (1978) and Rosen (1982) characterized by full information, a limited role for firm-specific human capital, and efficient allocation of workers across jobs and firms. But empirical evidence is not consistent with this approach. We explore an alternative focused on asymmetry of information between an executive's prospective employer and other potential employers, and an important role for firm-specific human capital. We show that our model better captures findings in the empirical literature concerning the CEO labor market than both the full information and efficient assignment approach and alternative models based on asymmetric information and inefficiencies. |
| Keywords: | CEOs, asymmetric employer learning, firm-specific human capital |
| JEL: | G14 G34 J62 |
| Date: | 2025–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:qed:wpaper:1539 |
| By: | Erik Dasenbrock; Britta Gehrke |
| Abstract: | This paper studies how unemployment benefits affect aggregate outcomes through general equilibrium effects. First, we document that lower unemployment benefits tend to reduce the real interest rate in a structural vector autoregression with narrative sign restrictions. Young workers experience greater employment gains than older workers. An overlapping generations model with labor market frictions rationalizes these findings. Reduced benefits boost employment among younger working-age populations, raising their incomes and enabling them to reduce borrowing, which in turn lowers real interest rates. This endogenous interest rate response amplifies the expansionary effects of the benefit reduction. The interest rate channel proves quantitatively relevant, suggesting important general equilibrium considerations for unemployment benefit design. |
| Keywords: | Unemployment benefits, narrative SVAR, life-cycle model, real interest rate, search and matching |
| JEL: | E24 E21 E43 |
| Date: | 2025–09–29 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdp:dpaper:0074 |
| By: | Kristina Butaeva (University of Chicago); Lian Chen (University of California, Los Angeles); Steven Durlauf (University of Chicago); Albert Park (Asian Development Bank) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines intergenerational mobility in the People’s Republic of China (PRC) and Russia during their transitions from central planning to market systems. We consider mobility as movement captured by changes in status between parents and children. We provide estimates of overall mobility, which involves mobility during transition to a system’s steady state, as well as steady state mobility, which captures long-run mobility independent of transitional dynamics or shifts in the marginal distribution of outcomes across generations. We further decompose overall mobility into structural and exchange components. We find that the PRC exhibits more overall educational mobility than Russia, mostly because of greater structural mobility, whereas Russia exhibits greater steady-state educational mobility. In contrast, both overall and steady state occupational mobility are similar in the PRC and Russia. Comparing these results to the United States (US), we find steady state mobility in education is substantially higher in the US and Russia compared to the PRC, but occupational steady state mobility is comparable in all three countries. |
| Keywords: | intergenerational mobility;education;occupation;transition economy |
| JEL: | J62 I25 P36 |
| Date: | 2025–10–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:adbewp:021651 |
| By: | Lukas Hauck, Nicola Stalder, Simon Büchler, Maximilian von Ehrlich |
| Abstract: | Tenancy rent control limits rent increases for sitting tenants while allowing market resets at vacancy. When demand grows or household composition differs across segments, spillovers raise rents in the unregulated market. We study its general equilibrium effects in Switzerland, where a nationwide regime meets large spatial variation. Linking administrative records on all households from 2010–2022 to detailed unit data and market rents, we estimate a structural sorting model with heterogeneous preferences, correcting for selection and price endogeneity. Counterfactual simulations show unregulated rents would be 8–21 percent lower, with the largest drops in supply-inelastic cities. Older, lower-income, and less educated households gain most, while newcomers face higher entry rents. The policy reduces mobility and induces space overconsumption, generating efficiency losses. |
| Keywords: | Rent Control, Residential Mobility, Inequality |
| JEL: | H7 H72 R23 R31 R38 |
| Date: | 2025–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ube:dpvwib:dp2507 |
| By: | Partha Deb; Edward C. Norton; Jeffrey M. Wooldridge; Jeffrey E. Zabel |
| Abstract: | For difference-in-differences methods, there has been great attention to obtaining consistent estimates of treatment effects, especially when the treatment effects are heterogeneous. However, there has been little discussion of the importance of weights in aggregating those treatment effects into an overall average treatment effect on the treated. There are many possible ways to aggregate estimated cohort-time treatment effects. We show that the standard software used to estimate Callaway and Sant’Anna’s method uses weights that are not just the number of treated observations in treated years. Instead, the software uses weights that include the number of observations in the reference pre-period instead of only the number of observations in the treated periods. We discuss why the aggregation weights matter and under what circumstances the weights make the most difference. |
| JEL: | C10 C18 |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34331 |
| By: | Daisuke MIYAKAWA; Koki OIKAWA; Kozo UEDA |
| Abstract: | This paper studies how population aging shapes firm dynamics and macroeconomic outcomes through business succession. Using large-scale Japanese firm-level panel data, we document systematic age transition patterns in successions, an inverted U-shape in performance with respect to managerial age, and the causal effects of succession on firm outcomes. Building on these facts, we develop a general equilibrium model with heterogeneous firms and life-cycle managerial ability. The model shows that declining population growth reduces succession but raises average managerial ability and strengthens firm selection. Quantitative analysis suggests that despite lower aggregate output, per capita output increases under demographic decline. |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eti:dpaper:25096 |
| By: | Frederico Alencar (CAEN - Graduate Studies in Economics, Federal University of Ceara, Brazil); Marcus Araripe (CAEN - Graduate Studies in Economics, Federal University of Ceara, Brazil); Marcelo Arbex (Department of Economics, University of Windsor); Marcio V. Correa (CAEN - Graduate Studies in Economics, Federal University of Ceara, Brazil) |
| Abstract: | This paper quantifies the impact of tax evasion on the labor-income Laffer curve in Brazil. We develop a heterogeneous-agent model with incomplete markets, progressive taxation, and imperfect tax enforcement. Beyond the well-known arithmetic and economic effects, the model highlights a novel evasion effect – higher statutory rates induce greater concealment of income and reduce effective tax collections. Calibrated to Brazilian data, the model shows that the aggregate Laffer curve peaks at a marginal rate of 25.3%, below the current 27.5%. Tax evasion reduces potential revenue by up to 54% (3.1% of GDP), with losses concentrated among high-income households. A disaggregated analysis further reveals heterogeneous responses across income groups, underscoring distributional and policy implications. |
| Keywords: | Laffer Curve, Tax Evasion, Labor Income Taxation, General Equilibrium. |
| JEL: | E20 E60 D85 H26 I10 |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wis:wpaper:2505 |
| By: | Papatheophilou, Simela; Tröster, Bernhard |
| Abstract: | Despite SDG target 8.7 aiming to eliminate child labour by 2025, 137.6 million children remain affected worldwide, highlighting the urgent need for action. Effective approaches go beyond prohibition, addressing root causes through social protection, education, decent work, and childcare systems, supported by social dialogue with affected communities, including the voices of affected children. This paper offers targeted recommendations to Austrian and EU institutions, encouraging them to drive change through multilateral and bilateral cooperation, enforce corporate responsibility across supply chains, and support local initiatives. |
| Keywords: | Child Labour, Sustainable Development Goals, Policy interventions |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:oefser:327984 |
| By: | Jane Greve; Mette T. Jensen; Esben Agerbo; John Cawley |
| Abstract: | This paper contributes to the literature on the impact of early-life health on education by estimating the effect of genetic predisposition to a higher body mass index (BMI) on educational attainment and related outcomes. The identification strategy exploits the randomness in which genes one inherits from one's parents by estimating sibling fixed effects models of the polygenic score for a higher BMI. These models are estimated using rich administrative data from Denmark for over 14, 000 full siblings. We find that a one-standard-deviation increase in the genetic predisposition to a higher BMI is associated with a 1.4 percentage point (4.4%) lower probability of earning a high school diploma, a 1.7 percentage point (12.3%) lower probability of a college degree, and a 1.7 percentage point (3.7%) higher probability of vocational training. An investigation into mechanisms suggests that youth with a greater genetic predisposition to a higher BMI are more likely to report being bullied, have greater school absences, and lower test scores. |
| JEL: | I1 I14 I2 I23 I24 J13 |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34322 |
| By: | Liu Cui (Zhejiang University); Yit Wey Liew (Sunway University); Muhammad Habibur Rahman (Durham University) |
| Abstract: | This study examines the economic and distributional effects of China’s National Pilot Program for Returnee Entrepreneurship, which encourages rural migrants to return to their hometowns for business creation and employment. Drawing on county-level socioeconomic indicators and nationally representative household survey data, we find that the program substantially boosted local economic development. Yet the gains were uneven as household-level analysis reveals a significant rise in within-county inequality. The mechanism operates through unequal access to capital, skills, and risk tolerance, enabling better-endowed households to capture a disproportionate share of the benefits. These findings underscore a key policy trade-off: while returnee entrepreneurship initiatives can stimulate aggregate growth, they may simultaneously exacerbate disparities within rural communities |
| Keywords: | Labor migration, Economic development, Inequality |
| JEL: | J61 O15 D63 L26 |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dur:durham:2025_03 |