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on Labour Economics |
| By: | Simonsen, Marianne (Aarhus University); Skipper, Lars (Aarhus University); Smith, Jeffrey (University of Wisconsin-Madison) |
| Abstract: | This paper uses register-based data to analyze the consequences of a recent major Danish welfare reform for children’s academic performance and well-being. In addition to work requirements, the reform brought about considerable reductions in welfare transfers. We implement a comparative event study that contrasts outcomes for individuals on welfare at the time of reform announcement before and after the implementation of the reform with the parallel development in outcomes for an uncontaminated comparison group, namely those on welfare exactly one year prior. Our analysis documents that mothers’ propensity to receive welfare decreased somewhat as a consequence of the reform, just as we observe a small increase in hours worked. At the same time, we do not detect negative effects on children’s short-run academic performance. We do find small negative effects on children’s self-reported school well-being and document substantial upticks in reports to child protective services for children exposed to the reform. |
| Keywords: | welfare reform, treatment effects, children, Denmark |
| JEL: | I38 J13 J22 H53 C23 |
| Date: | 2026–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18739 |
| By: | Fabio Cerina; Elisa Dienesch; Alexander Monge-Naranjo; Alessio Moro |
| Abstract: | Using longitudinal French administrative data (1984–2021), we document that employment polarization after 1994 reflects major changes in labor-market entry rather than mass occupational downgrading or displacement of incumbents. Flows from routine to abstract occupations remain substantial throughout the period, and a large fraction of these upgrades is due to noncollege workers. The decisive shift that generates polarization occurs at the entry margin: the net flow from nonemployment into routine occupations reverses around 1994, while the net flow from nonemployment into manual work increases. These patterns motivate life-cycle models of occupational choice that explicitly incorporate cohort heterogeneity and separate entry and re-entry margins. |
| Keywords: | labor market polarization; worker flows; occupational mobility; routine-based technological change; longitudinal data |
| JEL: | J21 J24 J62 |
| Date: | 2026–06–22 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedawp:103416 |
| By: | Andrew Garin; Ethan Jenkins; Evan E. Mast; Bryan A. Stuart |
| Abstract: | This paper studies migration and earnings dynamics in poor neighborhoods using new administrative data linking residential location and earnings. Out-migration rates are higher in poor neighborhoods than elsewhere, and the majority of people who leave a poor neighborhood move to a richer one. Residents of poor neighborhoods also see significant earnings mobility, with average growth rates similar to richer areas. Estimates based on idiosyncratic, firm-specific pay changes show that increases in earnings are linked to migration to better neighborhoods. This results in the earnings of the cohort who lived in a poor neighborhood at baseline growing more than twice as fast as the earnings of these neighborhoods' contemporaneous residents. Overall, our results highlight an underappreciated reason why poor neighborhoods stay poor: initial residents whose earnings grow tend to move away. |
| JEL: | J30 J61 R23 |
| Date: | 2026–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35381 |
| By: | Pablo Castro (Federal University of Bahia); Mayara Felix (Yale University and NBER); Ieda Matavelli (University of New South Wales); Bobak Pakzad-Hurson (Brown University) |
| Abstract: | We evaluate the effects of mandatory disclosures of firm-specific gender wage gaps in BrazilÑthe first developing country to enact a large-scale pay transparency law. The mandate took effect in 2023, automatically releasing to the public government-curated reports showing firm-specific gender wage gaps, separately by major occupational groups, for formal sector firms with 100 employees or more. Regression discontinuity estimates on outcomes one year after the release show that the mandated disclosures had no effects on the gender wage ratio, average wages for men or women, or the number of occupations within firms. We document that gender wage gaps persist in the formal sector as of year-end 2024, with women earning 10% less than men on average after conditioning on a flexible vector of observables, including hours worked, work experience, years of education, and occupation codes. Gender wage gaps increase with firm size for all occupational groups except production workers, which are male-dominated and have stronger union presence. Two major employer associations and a political party have challenged the legality of the policy at the Supreme Court, arguing that the mandated disclosures violate data protection rules, expose commercially sensitive wage data constituting trade secrets, conflict with existing labor legislation that permits legitimate wage differentials, and impose penalties without due process. We hypothesize two non-mutually-exclusive channels for the null effects: information frictionsÑworkers may not receive, understand, or find actionable the technical reportsÑand labor market frictionsÑworkers may be unable to act on information given limited outside options and high transition costs in Brazil's frictional labor market. |
| Date: | 2026–04–13 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cwl:cwldpp:2517 |
| By: | Buser, Thomas (University of Amsterdam) |
| Abstract: | Recent studies have found that childhood misbehavior, despite predicting worse schooling outcomes, is associated with higher adult earnings. Using a retrospective measure in a representative Dutch survey panel, I document a new dimension of the misbehavior-career link: people who misbehaved as children are overrepresented in leadership positions and among entrepreneurs. Yet the same people are, as adults, more likely to engage in physical aggression and social transgressions. They also have an aversive personality – markedly more disagreeable, dishonest, narcissistic, manipulative, neurotic, unconscientious, and vindictive – and report lower wellbeing. These patterns persist even among those who reach the top, making them potentially toxic as leaders. |
| Keywords: | childhood misbehavior, externalizing behavior, leadership, antisocial behavior, personality, non-cognitive skills |
| JEL: | J24 D91 I21 M51 |
| Date: | 2026–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18744 |
| By: | Anna Adamecz (UCL Social Research Institute; HUN-REN Centre for Economic and Regional Studies; IZA); Anna Lovász (University of Washington Tacoma); Sunčica Vujić (University of Antwerp; University of Bath; VU Amsterdam; IZA) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the link between higher education and fertility, with particular attention to the role of intergenerational educational mobility in shaping this relationship. Drawing on data from the 1970 British Cohort Study, we estimate differences in completed fertility across three groups: first-in-family university graduates (FiF), graduates with at least one university-educated parent (non-FiF graduates), and individuals who did not attend university (non-graduates). Our findings show that although graduate women generally have fewer children than non-graduates, this gap is primarily driven by FiF graduates. FiF women have lower fertility than both non-FiF graduates and non-graduates, who exhibit similar fertility patterns. The fertility gap between FiF and non-FiF graduates emerges after age 35, mainly on the extensive margin: FiF women are more likely to remain childless, but those who become mothers have an average number of children similar to non-FiF graduates. Similar patterns are observed for men, however, the gaps are smaller and not statistically significant. We identify child-related preferences, self-esteem, and exposure to maternal employment during childhood as potential drivers of the relationship between FiF status and fertility. In contrast, labour market outcomes, financial constraints, partnership status, and health outcomes do not appear to contribute to the FiF fertility gap. These findings highlight key considerations for policies aimed at supporting both intergenerational mobility and fertility. |
| Keywords: | First in family (FiF) graduates, fertility, childlessness, intergenerational educational mobility, gender economics |
| JEL: | I26 J13 J16 J24 |
| Date: | 2025–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:has:discpr:2506 |
| By: | Claudia Goldin |
| Abstract: | The fertility decline is everywhere in the world today and goes back decades for rich countries. Birthrates have been below replacement in the U.S. and Europe since the mid-1970s. Completed cohort fertility in the U.S. was lower for those born in 1955 than for 1975. The reasons for the initial declines involve greater female autonomy and a mismatch between the desires of men and women. Men generally benefit more from maintaining traditions; women often benefit more from eschewing them. When the probability is low that men will abandon traditions, some career women will not have children and others will delay. |
| JEL: | J13 J16 N30 |
| Date: | 2026–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35425 |
| By: | Ingvild AlmŒs (IIES, Stockholm University and Norwegian School of Economics); Nina Drange (Statistics Norway); Costas Meghir (Yale University); Henrik Daae Zachrisson (University of Oslo) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the impact of early childcare on academic achievement for children in grade 5 and grade 9, based on a 2003 policy expansion that created quasi-random variation in slot availability for children aged 1Ð2. Starting childcare one year earlier increases math scores by 9.7% of a standard deviation (SD) in grade 9. Children whose mothers do not hold a high school diploma benefit by a significant 28% of a SD at grade 9, reducing the math achievement gap from children of higher-educated mothers by about one third. We also present evidence of strong improvements for children of immigrants. |
| Date: | 2026–04–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cwl:cwldpp:2518 |
| By: | Datta Gupta, Nabanita (Aarhus University); Hedeager, Kristian (Kraka, Danmark); Kim, Youngsook (Korean Women's Development Institute); Stratton, Leslie (Virginia Commonwealth University) |
| Abstract: | We compare the effects of non-parental care (NPC) for young children on mothers’ and fathers’ employment and childcare time, using data from Korea, the United Kingdom, and Denmark. Our findings indicate that mothers using NPC are more likely to be employed, particularly in Korea. Correspondingly, in all three countries mothers using NPC spend less time on childcare on weekdays, but in Korea less time is also spent on weekends and on quality care. The effects for fathers are rarely significant. We find evidence that family-friendly workplaces, care type, and gender norms all play a role in explaining the cross-country differences. |
| Keywords: | non-parental care, employment, parental care time, parenting quality, survey data, time-use, time-diary data |
| JEL: | J13 J22 |
| Date: | 2026–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18738 |
| By: | Nynke de Groot (National Healthcare Institute); Bas van der Klaauw (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam) |
| Abstract: | Active labor market programs targeted at older unemployed workers are often believed to be ineffective. We exploit a large-scale randomized experiment involving approximately 50, 000 older unemployed workers to evaluate an intensive job search assistance program that focuses on exploiting the social network. Participation in the program increases exits from unemployment insurance by 4.4 percentage points. Program participation reduces cumulative benefit payments by about €715, exceeding the program costs of €470. Participants compensate the reduced benefits receipt with higher earnings. We find that participants change their job search behavior according to the content of the program, and that both the trainer and the training group composition affect the program effectiveness. |
| Keywords: | Randomized experiment, older unemployed workers, ALMP, job search assistance, social network |
| JEL: | C93 J14 J64 |
| Date: | 2026–05–21 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tin:wpaper:20260018 |
| By: | Lawrence F. Katz |
| Abstract: | Experimental and quasi-experimental studies show that childhood neighborhoods have substantial causal impacts on children’s adult earnings and other long-term socioeconomic outcomes. Several market failures are likely to lead to excessive residential segregation by parental income and to an under-supply of mixed-income neighborhoods. Missing markets for opportunity originate in capital market imperfections for borrowing on children’s future earnings, neighbor spillovers, behavioral biases, and housing search frictions. Customized housing mobility services combined with subsidized housing vouchers can help low-income families move to higher-opportunity areas. Place-based policies that create mixed-income neighborhoods appear to increase long-term outcomes for less-advantaged children. |
| JEL: | H0 I3 J1 R0 |
| Date: | 2026–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35419 |
| By: | D'AGOSTINI, CECILIA (University of Florence); FERRONE, LUCIA (UNIVERSITY OF FLORENCE); Giannelli, Gianna (University of Florence) |
| Abstract: | Egypt’s demographic trajectory has shifted markedly over recent decades, with fertility declines in the 1980s and 1990s followed by a reversal that peaked at 3.5 children per woman in 2014. While previous research has examined determinants such as women’s employment, contraceptive use, and migration, the role of housing policy remains largely unexplored. This study investigates the impact of Egypt’s 1996 rental market liberalization on fertility. Using four waves of the Egypt Labor Market Panel Survey (ELMPS) combined with district-level housing data from the 2006 Census, we exploit geographic and temporal variation in exposure to the reform. We examine whether women of marriageable age in 1996 living in districts with greater availability of liberalized rental units experienced different fertility outcomes. Results show that exposure to the reform increased the likelihood of childbearing and positively affected other fertility measures, including age at first birth and parity at ages 25, 30, and 35. Evidence suggests that earlier marriage is the main mechanism, consistent with the reform lowering housing constraints for young couples. |
| Keywords: | Egypt, fertility, housing, liberalization |
| JEL: | J13 J16 O18 R21 |
| Date: | 2026–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18734 |
| By: | Rigissa Megalokonomou; Juliana Silva-Goncalves; Roel van Veldhuizen |
| Abstract: | We study the role of self-promotion and career advice in sustaining gender differences in labor market outcomes. We conduct a pre-registered experiment in which “advisers” advise “workers” to attempt either a more or a less ambitious task. We find that women promote themselves less than men and, as a result, are 12 percentage points less likely to be advised to choose the more ambitious task. This gender gap in advice persists across both quantitative and qualitative self-assessments and is robust to variation in advisers’ information sets—including when advisers observe workers’ actual performance—but is eliminated and even reversed when advisers are informed of the gender gap in self-promotion. |
| Keywords: | advice, gender, self-promotion, randomized experiment |
| JEL: | C91 D91 J16 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12809 |
| By: | Alexander Bick; Adam Blandin; Karel Mertens; Hannah Rubinton |
| Abstract: | We study how full-time work from home (WFH) affects migration and economic activity across cities. Using ACS and novel survey data, we show WFH workers migrate 40–50 percent more than comparable commuters, commuters who switch to WFH migrate more, plausibly exogenous WFH expansions raise migration and WFH workers migrate to lower-cost cities than commuters. The post-Covid expansion in WFH coincided with a large increase in migration; WFH accounts for half of this increase and much of the cross-city variation in migration changes. Recently, WFH has stabilized at twice its pre-Covid rate. We study the long-run implications of this shift in a dynamic spatial equilibrium model of remote work, costly migration and job search. Expanded WFH raises migration by shifting workers into more mobile remote jobs, reallocating people and tax revenue out of expensive cities and narrowing rent differentials. Welfare gains are sizable but concentrated among remote-capable workers in commuting jobs just before the shock, especially those in large cities. A higher WFH share also shifts more of the burden of local shocks onto commuters. |
| Keywords: | migration; work from home; remote work; labor mobility |
| Date: | 2026–07–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:feddwp:103497 |
| By: | Brad Hershbein; Katherine Lim; Douglas A. Webber; Mike Zabek |
| Abstract: | Using novel data from the Survey of Household Economics and Decisionmaking, we examine how labor market tightness affects workers’ job quality. We estimate that a 10 percent increase in job vacancies not only increases the probability of changing jobs, it yields an 11–18 percent increase in the (unconditional) probability of switching to a better job overall, and one with greater pay and benefits, interest in the work, and advancement opportunities. Because tight labor markets improve both worker pay and job amenities in roughly the same proportion, their benefits to workers are underestimated when based on pay alone. |
| Keywords: | job quality; labor market tightness; Survey of Household Economics and Decisionmaking (SHED); Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS); Lightcast; local shocks |
| JEL: | J23 J28 J32 J62 |
| Date: | 2026–06–22 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedgfe:103443 |
| By: | Annabel Siegal (Boston College); Joanna Venator (Boston College) |
| Abstract: | Is there a motherhood penalty in time use? Using a pseudo-event study design, we document that women’s time spent on childcare and housework increases more post-birth than men’s. Women are also more likely to spend more time on multi-tasking with women reporting a larger increase in time spent on childcare done simultaneously with leisure and housework. Using state-by-year variation in paid family leave legislation, we show that these policies change the motherhood penalty in time-use, increasing the gap in time use in the year of birth but reducing the gap in the years post-birth. |
| Keywords: | childcare, female labor supply, time use |
| JEL: | J13 J22 J38 |
| Date: | 2026–06–29 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:boc:bocoec:1113 |
| By: | Fang, Tony (Memorial University of Newfoundland, NL, Canada); Lin, Carl (Bucknell University Lewisburg, PA, USA); Liu, Qing (Hefei University of Technology, Anhui, China) |
| Abstract: | We construct city–year measures of AI labor demand from 1.6 million online job postings between 2016 and 2024, and merge them with nationally representative microdata from the China Family Panel Studies (2016–2022). Fixed-effects estimates show that local AI labor demand has positive impacts on individual wages: a one-unit increase in AI demand (1, 000 postings, firms, or job titles) raises wages by about 0.2–0.3 percent. Women experience stronger gains—about 0.5–0.7 percent per unit increase—while men show no measurable effect. Wage effects are largest in Western provinces, and in China’s major AI-cluster cities where complementary production factors and digital infrastructure are most developed. Occupational analyses further show that women’s gains are concentrated in service-oriented, less skill-intensive jobs where AI complements interpersonal and coordination tasks rather than substituting them. Overall, AI diffusion generates meaningful but unequal labor market spillovers, with wage gains concentrated among women, dynamic regions, and human–AI complementary occupations, underscoring both the opportunities of technological transformation and the challenges of achieving inclusive growth. |
| Keywords: | artificial intelligence (AI), labor market, wages, productivity, China |
| JEL: | I23 J24 |
| Date: | 2026–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18740 |