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on Labour Economics |
| By: | Binder, Ariel (U.S. Census Bureau); Risch, Max (Tepper School of Business, Carnegie Mellon University); Voorheis, John (Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau) |
| Abstract: | Housing is the largest capital asset for most families. While the intergenerational mobility literature has extensively studied the income distribution, it has devoted less attention to housing, in part due to data limitations. We document 3 features of intergenerational mobility by comparing housing capital and income in a new dataset covering 3.4 million U.S. families. First, housing is more persistent across generations than earnings. Moreover, the housing gap between White and Black children grows more sharply throughout the parental resource distribution than does the earnings gap. Second, less than half of intergenerational housing persistence operates through child earnings, leaving substantial scope for direct transmissions of capital assets and knowledge. The direct channel is much weaker among Black families and can almost fully explain their greater risk of downward mobility. Third, local housing supply constraints shape spatial differences in the intergenerational mobility of housing - but not of earnings - as measured in a quasi-experimental shift-share design. Our results highlight a more rigid structure of economic resources across families than implied by income studies. |
| Keywords: | housing markets, intergenerational mobility, homeownership, wealth distribution, capital, income, housing supply, racial disparities |
| JEL: | E24 O18 R31 D31 |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18546 |
| By: | Coffey, Stephanie (Saint Anselm College); Goodman, Joshua (Boston University); Schwartz, Amy (University of Delaware); Stiefel, Leanna (New York University); Winters, Marcus (Boston University); Yoon, Yunee (Boston University) |
| Abstract: | Special education serves more than one in seven U.S. students yet its causal impact remains understudied. Using longitudinal data from Massachusetts, Indiana, and Connecticut, we estimate the effect of individualized supports with an event-study design that tracks achievement around initial classification. Students' scores decline prior to placement and rise sharply afterward, yielding a consistent V-shaped pattern. Within three years, achievement is 0.2-0.4σ higher than counterfactual trends imply. Gains are similar across disability categories and subgroups, are not driven by testing accommodations, and remain under conservative assumptions. Individualized supports substantially increase learning productivity. |
| Keywords: | special education, human capital, treatment effects, education policy |
| JEL: | I21 I28 H52 J24 |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18531 |
| By: | Mahlstedt, Robert (University of Copenhagen); Settele, Sonja (University of Cologne); Wohlfart, Johannes (University of Cologne) |
| Abstract: | We study economic narratives--causal accounts of observed events--in a high-stakes real-world context: long-term unemployment. We use open-ended questions to measure narratives about long-term unemployment in samples of Danish unemployed job seekers, firm managers, households from the general population, and experts at labor market institutions, as well as international academic experts. We document three main results. First, there is pronounced heterogeneity in narratives both within and across samples. For instance, job seekers are more likely to attribute long-term unemployment to factors outside the control of the individual and less likely to attribute it to job seekers' own decisions than respondents in the other samples. Second, narratives strongly reflect job seekers' personal experiences during both the current and previous unemployment spells. Third, narratives shape job seekers' and firm managers' quantitative beliefs, decisions and labor market outcomes as measured in survey and administrative data, which we demonstrate in a field experiment and correlationally. Our findings highlight the experiential origins of economic narratives and underscore the key role of narratives in belief formation and decision making. |
| Keywords: | narratives, job search, hiring |
| JEL: | D83 D84 J64 |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18532 |
| By: | Delaney, Judith (University of Bath); Devereux, Paul (University College Dublin) |
| Abstract: | We use population-level administrative data on secondary school students in England to examine how mathematical and verbal skills shape educational and labour market outcomes. Tracking cohorts from age 16 through higher education and into employment up to age 34, we show that these skills operate through distinct pathways. Verbal skills strongly predict educational attainment - including university enrolment, completion, and postgraduate study - while mathematical skills yield substantially larger earnings returns. At ages 30-34, moving from the 25th to the 75th percentile of the mathematics distribution is associated with 29% higher earnings, compared with 14% for verbal skills. This divergence is partly driven by field-of-study choice: individuals with stronger verbal skills are more likely to enter fields with higher completion rates but lower pay, while those with stronger mathematical skills sort into STEM and other high-paying fields. Gender differences in skills explain the female advantage in higher education and part of the STEM gap, but have limited impact on the gender earnings gap due to offsetting effects across these channels. |
| Keywords: | math skills, verbal skills, college, field of study, STEM |
| JEL: | I26 I24 I21 |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18542 |
| By: | Lindner, Attila (University College London); Muraközy, Balázs (University of Liverpool); Reizer, Balázs (ELTE - Centre for Economic and Regional Studies); Schreiner, Ragnhild (University of Oslo) |
| Abstract: | We quantify the contribution of firm-level technological change to skill demand and aggregate inequality in the presence of imperfect competition in the labor market. We show that skill-biased technological change increases both the firm-level skill ratio and the skill premium, while other shocks (e.g. firm-specific output demand shocks) cannot explain the increase in both outcomes. We exploit administrative data and a large survey measuring a broad class of firm-level technological changes from Hungary and Norway. We estimate that the aggregate college premium increases by 3.4% in Norway and by 4.9% in Hungary as a result of the skill bias in technological change. |
| Keywords: | skill-biased technological change, innovation, skill premiums, imperfect competition |
| JEL: | J31 J24 O30 O33 |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18516 |
| By: | Sarah Cattan (Institute for Fiscal Studies); Antonio Dalla-Zuanna (Bank of Italy); Jan Stuhler (Universidad Carlos III de Madrid); Po Yin Wong (Queen Mary University of London) |
| Abstract: | Standard intergenerational measures have been shown to understate the long-run persistence of socioeconomic advantages in developed countries. We study theoretically and empirically whether this pattern extends to less developed settings, using Indonesia as a case study. Using the Indonesian Family Life Survey (IFLS) and Census data, we study multigenerational correlations in education across three generations. Contrary to previous findings, we observe greater multigenerational mobility than parent-child correlations alone would suggest. We develop a theoretical framework to highlight two key factors influencing multigenerational dynamics in developing countries: (1) financial and credit constraints, and (2) cultural norms related to marital sorting. To confirm their relevance, we exploit regional variations in exposure to the 1997-98 Asian financial crisis and in marital customs. |
| Keywords: | intergenerational mobility, multigenerational persistence, education constraints, financial constraints, Indonesia |
| JEL: | D10 I24 J24 J62 |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hka:wpaper:2026-005 |
| By: | Zamarro, Gema (University of Arkansas, Fayetteville); Camp, Andrew (Annenberg Institute, Brown University); McGee, Josh (University of Arkansas); Wilson, Taylor (University of Arkansas); Vernon, Miranda (University of Arkansas) |
| Abstract: | The LEARNS Act increased Arkansas's minimum teacher salary from $36, 000 to $50, 000, guaranteed all teachers a minimum raise of $2, 000, and provided school districts with the flexibility to deviate from traditional, seniority-based salary schedules. We collected districts' teacher salary schedules one year before and after implementation and integrated these data with administrative records to study districts' adjustment and teacher retention during the first three years of the reform. We find that districts made the minimum adjustments necessary. These changes increased the competitiveness of starting salaries across districts and reduced salary variation statewide. The Act also substantially increased salaries in rural and high-poverty districts, weakening the negative relationship between starting salaries, student poverty, and rurality. Using a triple-difference design, we find that teachers who received raises exceeding the $2, 000 minimum were more likely to remain in their districts, with the strongest retention effects among those receiving the largest increases. We also find evidence that these effects may fade as inflation erodes the real value of the initial salary gains. |
| Keywords: | teacher compensation, teacher retention, teacher turnover |
| JEL: | I20 I22 J18 |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18520 |
| By: | Hensel, Lukas (Peking University); Abebe, Girum (International Finance Corporation (IFC), The World Bank); Gerard, François (University College London); Caria, Stefano (University of Oxford) |
| Abstract: | Job loss is an understudied risk for formal workers in lower-income countries. In these settings, lump-sum severance pay is often the only source of job-loss insurance. We quasi experimentally show that female factory workers in Ethiopia displaced by a tariff hike experience lasting declines in employment and consumption spending, and rising poverty. Experimentally, we find that additional lump-sum support induces early spending and reduces overall and manufacturing employment persistently. Disbursing an equivalent amount in tranches improves consumption smoothing and avoids adverse employment effects. Further, we document a high willingness to pay for additional insurance, alongside heterogeneous preferences over disbursement modality that shape responses to our interventions. These findings imply that increasing job-loss insurance raises welfare, although moving away from the lump-sum default can generate substantial additional gains. |
| Keywords: | job loss, job-loss insurance, trade shock |
| JEL: | O12 J63 J65 I32 O14 J16 |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18537 |
| By: | David N. Wasser |
| Abstract: | I investigate whether the effects of UI extensions are different for workers exposed to higher levels of local labor market concentration, a potential source of employer market power. I exploit measurement error in state unemployment rates that led to quasi-random assignment of UI durations in the U.S. during the Great Recession. Using matched employer-employee data from the Longitudinal Employer-Household Dynamics program, I find that UI extensions lengthen nonemployment durations by one week and cause economically meaningful but not statistically significant increases in earnings. The UI-earnings effect is significantly lower at higher levels of concentration, while there is no difference in the UI-duration effect. The lower UI-earnings effect is driven by the extremes of the distribution of concentration. My results suggest that match improvements from UI are attenuated at higher levels of concentration. |
| Keywords: | Unemployment insurance, labor market concentration, local labor markets, earnings, nonemployment duration |
| JEL: | J31 J42 J65 |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cen:wpaper:26-24 |
| By: | Capretti, Lisa (University of Rome Tor Vergata); Centofanti, Francesca (University of Rome Tor Vergata); Farcomeni, Alessio (University of Rome Tor Vergata); Rosati, Furio (University of Rome Tor Vergata) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines temporary migration and return decisions among immigrants in Italy using a novel administrative dataset covering 3.7 million foreign-born individuals between 2011 and 2022. By reconstructing individual migration histories, we estimate migration duration using parametric survival models, quantile regressions for interval-censored data, competing risk models, and a split cure model that distinguishes permanent settlement from the timing of exit. Results show that out-migration is concentrated in the first five years after arrival, while most migrants remain in Italy over the 12-year observation window. Age and gender matter, but local conditions within Italy strongly shape migration duration. Higher local incomes are associated with longer stays, while higher rental prices accelerate departures. Regional disparities also matter independently of economic variables: migrants in the South and Islands remain significantly longer than those in the North. These findings show that heterogeneity within host countries, rather than national averages alone, shapes migration trajectories and highlights the importance of local labor markets and living conditions. |
| Keywords: | migration dynamics, temporary migration, regional disparities, survival analysis. |
| JEL: | F22 J61 C41 |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18526 |
| By: | Clemens, Michael (George Mason University, Peterson Institute for International Economics, and IZA); Neufeld, Jeremy (Institute for Progress); Nice, Amy (Institute for Progress) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines how proposed U.S. restrictions on international students would affect the nation's STEM workforce and long-run economic growth. Focusing on the most common pipeline from U.S. universities to the labor market, we show that international education is the principal mechanism by which the United States recruits and retains high-skill STEM talent. We present survey evidence suggesting that proposed policy changes will deter substantial numbers of international students from studying in the United States and remaining in its workforce after graduation. We then estimate the effects of plausible policy-induced declines in the number of foreign STEM graduates entering the U.S. workforce. A sustained one-third reduction would shrink the high-skill STEM workforce by about 6 percent overall, potentially by more than 11 percent at the Ph.D. level, and would lead to long-run GDP losses of $240 billion to $481 billion annually. These losses are unlikely to be offset by U.S.-born workers or foreign-trained workers abroad. Drawing on evidence on innovation, entrepreneurship, and spillovers, we conclude that restricting this talent pipeline would weaken innovative capacity and long-run productivity in the U.S. economy. |
| Keywords: | immigration, productivity, skill, students, universities, research, innovation, patents, productivity, macroeconomic, restrictions, barriers |
| JEL: | F22 J61 O33 |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18548 |
| By: | Gallen, Yana (Harris School, University of Chicago); Joensen, Juanna (University of Chicago); Johansen, Eva (the Chairmanship of the Danish Economics Councils); Veramendi, Gregory (Royal Holloway, University of London) |
| Abstract: | We study the labor market impact of unplanned pregnancy among women using long-acting reversible contraceptives to delay pregnancy. While most women successfully delay, some have unplanned pregnancies, providing quasi-random variation in pregnancy timing. Analyzing linked health and labor market data from Sweden, we find that unplanned pregnancies halt women's career progression, resulting in income losses of 19% five years later. We find similar effects of unplanned births among women using short-acting reversible contraceptives. Using pregnancy as an instrument for birth in a dynamic treatment effect framework, effects of unplanned children are more detrimental for younger women and those enrolled in education. |
| Keywords: | labor market costs of motherhood, fertility, contraceptives, unplanned pregnancy |
| JEL: | J13 J22 J24 J31 |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18529 |
| By: | Ambar La Forgia; Manasvini Singh |
| Abstract: | We investigate how the gender mix of expert teams affects performance in a high-stakes setting: childbirth. Using data on 2.5 million births, we exploit the quasi-exogenous assignment of patients to two-member obstetrician teams (Lead–Assisting), and find that: (i) female-only teams achieve the best maternal outcomes, whereas male-only teams have the worst; and (ii) female-led mixed-gender teams perform worse than male-led ones. Specifically, severe maternal complications are 15.8% higher in male-only teams and 7.1-10.8% higher in mixed-gender teams compared to female-only teams. These patterns cannot be explained by patient risk, endogenous team formation, or physician preferences for discretionary practices like C-sections. Instead, gender mix directly affects team decisions and performance, likely through gender norms — a mechanism supported by two findings. First, gender mix affects how closely team decisions reflect member preferences, with female-only teams being especially skilled at this process, possibly due to more collaborative decision-making. Second, gender mix affects team resilience, with female-led mixed gender teams performing especially poorly under challenging conditions (e.g., limited team familiarity), possibly because female leaders invert traditional gender norms. We also document other notable patterns: female-only teams not only achieve the lowest complication rates for Black women, but are also the only team type to have no racial disparity in maternal outcomes. Overall, this study provides new insights into gender dynamics in expert teams, informing managerial efforts to support effective collaboration in increasingly diverse workplaces. |
| JEL: | D91 I1 J16 M54 |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35084 |
| By: | Yadav, Anil (Central Bank of Ireland); McHale, John (University of Galway, Ireland); Galetti, Jefferson RB (University of Galway, Ireland) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines how skill mismatch, particularly in digital skills, constrains occupational mobility. Using worker transition data from the Irish Labour Force Survey and skill vectors from the ESCO database, we construct occupation-level mismatch measures and estimate their effect on worker flows in a framework combining matching and gravity models. Greater skill mismatch significantly reduces occupational mobility, with stronger constraints on transitions between digitally intensive occupations. We also document substantial heterogeneity in bilateral mobility costs and show that occupations that are easier to enter are harder to exit, creating bottlenecks. These findings highlight the importance of retraining policies, especially those supporting digital skill acquisition, to improve labour market adaptability |
| Keywords: | Occupational Mobility; Skill mismatch; Tasks; Mobility costs. |
| JEL: | J24 J62 |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cbi:wpaper:04/rt/26 |
| By: | Philipp Korte (OWL University of Applied Sciences and Arts); Alexander Groepper (Paderborn University); Kirsten Thommes (Paderborn University) |
| Abstract: | The four-day workweek (4DWW) has emerged as a prominent policy proposal in contemporary debates on the future of work, productivity and employee well-being. Despite growing interest, empirical evidence on workers’ preferences for the 4DWW remains limited, particularly regarding how the costs of reduced working time should be shared between employers and employees. Existing research largely assumes that employers will bear these costs in full, leaving unresolved the crucial question of what contribution-level workers are willing to accept. This study addresses that gap by providing systematic evidence on employees willingness to support different cost-sharing arrangements for a 4DWW in the German labor market. Drawing on an early 2024 vignette-based survey of 379 employees, respondents chose between a standard five-day workweek (35 hours, full pay) and seven alternative 4DWW arrangements varying in weekly hours and wage adjustments. This design allows for a detailed assessment of the trade-offs workers are willing to make between time and income. Results show support for the 4DWW is substantial but clearly conditional. While employees accept compressed schedules or moderate working hour reductions, support declines markedly when wage reductions exceed what is perceived as a fair sharing of costs. On average, respondents will bear approximately half the costs of shorter working hours, expecting employers to absorb the remainder. Preferences differ systematically across social groups, including gender, age, and family situation. Furthermore, respondents express a pronounced preference for having either Friday or Monday off, primarily driven, apart from care, by the desire for more leisure time. Overall, findings demonstrate that worker support for the 4DWW depends fundamentally on perceptions of fairness in cost sharing. By highlighting the limits of trading wages for time, this study contributes important evidence to current debates and underscores the need for institutional safeguards preventing the disproportionate transfer of adjustment costs onto workers. |
| Keywords: | four-day workweek, work-hour reduction, employee preferences, cost-sharing, vignette study |
| JEL: | A |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pdn:dispap:176 |
| By: | Gabriel Burdin; Ryo Kambayashi; Takao Kato |
| Abstract: | How do limits on working hours affect firms, workers, and households? This paper answers this question by analyzing Japan's 2018Work Style Reform (WSR), which introduced the first binding cap on overtime hours. Using establishment payroll data and worker surveys in a difference-in-differences design, we show that the reform reduced monthly overtime by 5 hours (25%) and compressed the distribution of overtime within firms. Total earnings fell by 1.4% due to the effect of lower overtime pay. The reform also narrowed overtime gaps between standard and nonstandard jobs and reduced gender differences in long hours. Consistent with a reduction in the importance of extreme overtime as a screening device, women gained increased access to standard, career-track positions. We further document improvements in life and leisure satisfaction among female workers, but not among men. These gender differences are not explained by changes in perceived work intensification or time use. Instead, men partially substituted unpaid for paid overtime, consistent with the absence of well-being gains among male workers. Finally, exploiting information on spouses’ working hours, we find suggestive evidence of cross-spousal spillovers on women’s well-being, consistent with household-level complementarities. |
| Keywords: | Working Time Regulations, Overtime, Wages, Employment, Subjective Well-being, Gender, Japan, Work Style Reform Jel Classification: J16, J22, J23, J41 |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:usi:wpaper:942 |
| By: | Moriam Khanam; Mohammad Hajizadeh; Casey Warman |
| Abstract: | This study leverages exogenous variation from a secondary school stipend program for female students in rural Bangladesh to estimate the causal effect of maternal education on early childhood development. Using data from the 2019 Bangladesh Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey, we find that the five years of stipend eligibility increase mothers' schooling by about one year. Instrumental variable estimates show that an additional year of maternal education improves early childhood development scores by 0.5 points on a scale of 0-10, with gains in overall developmental readiness (7.5 percentage points) and in the literacy–numeracy (7.7 percentage points) and physical (1.9 percentage points) domains. The results are robust across specifications. We also estimate the effects of maternal education on potential mechanisms, including children's nutrition, home learning environment, parenting practices, and use of early childhood education and care. The findings show that improvements in maternal education increase weight-for-age Z-scores, reduce stunting, improve the probability of having toys from shops, and increase the likelihood of an adult household member playing with the child. The positive effects of maternal education on children's developmental outcomes imply the importance of investment in improving educational attainment, particularly for females in low- and middle-income countries. |
| JEL: | H52 I10 I25 J24 O15 |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35075 |
| By: | Malacrino, Davide (International Monetary Fund); Nocito, Samuel (Sapienza University of Rome); Saggio, Raffaele (University of British Columbia) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the impact of a reform aimed at expediting graduation times in Italian universities by reducing the number of exams students must pass in order to graduate. Using event-study estimates that leverage the reform's staggered implementation, we find that this policy led to an increase in on-time graduation rates but also resulted in a decreased probability of employment one-year post-graduation. However, this negative effect reverses into a positive one in the medium run. We show that these patterns are explained by students using the time gained from earlier graduation to pursue additional educational qualifications. |
| Keywords: | higher education, policy evaluation, time to graduation, labor outcomes |
| JEL: | I23 I26 I28 J22 |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18530 |
| By: | Kalee E. Burns; Julie L. Hotchkiss |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the role that homophily might play in explaining racial/ethnic disparities in the labor market. We find that Black and Hispanic workers are less responsive than White workers to changes in job opportunities, but responsiveness increases when those opportunities present themselves in locations with a higher share own-race population. The analysis makes use of restricted American Community Survey data, accessible through the Federal Statistical Research Data Centers, allowing us to include commuting zones that may otherwise not be identified because of suppressed location information in the public data |
| Keywords: | regional labor markets; regional migration; geographic mobility; racial disparities; migration policy; migration costs; social costs; homophily; place-based; people-based; geographic mismatch |
| JEL: | R22 J61 J15 J18 |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cen:wpaper:26-22 |