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on Labour Economics |
| By: | Justin R. Pierce; Peter K. Schott; Cristina J. Tello-Trillo |
| Abstract: | We find that US workers outside manufacturing exhibit relative earnings increases after US trade liberalization with China. These relative gains cumulate over time as the beneficial effect of a workerâ s upstream exposureâ increased competition from China in input marketsâ more than offsets the detrimental impact of her own and downstream (customer) exposures. These relative gains are smaller for non-manufacturing workers with less ex ante firm tenure and lower initial earnings, and are absent among manufacturing workers due to a lack of upstream gains and stronger downstream losses. |
| Keywords: | Employment; Manufacturing; Labor markets; International trade; Trade policy |
| JEL: | F13 F14 F15 F16 |
| Date: | 2026–01–13 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedgif:102365 |
| By: | Christopher Campos; Pablo Muñoz; Alonso Bucarey; Dante Contreras |
| Abstract: | This paper studies how college major choices shape earnings and fertility outcomes. Using administrative data that link students' preferences, random assignment to majors, and post-college outcomes, we estimate the causal pecuniary and non-pecuniary returns to different fields of study. We document substantial heterogeneity in these returns across majors and show that such variation helps explain gender gaps in labor market outcomes: women place greater weight on balancing career and family in their major choices, and these preference differences account for about 30% of the gender earnings gap among college graduates. Last, we use our causal estimates to evaluate the effects of counterfactual assignment rules that target representation gaps in settings with centralized assignment systems. We find that gender quotas in high-return fields can significantly reduce representation and earnings gaps with minimal impacts on efficiency and aggregate fertility. |
| JEL: | I20 I24 I26 J01 J16 |
| Date: | 2026–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34736 |
| By: | Holmberg, Johan (Department of Economics, Umeå University); Simmons, Michael (Department of Economics, Umeå University); Telemo, Paul (Department of Economics, University of Strathclyde) |
| Abstract: | We study the role of liquid wealth in job displacement costs using Swedish administrative data. Low-wealth hand-to-mouth workers experience substantially larger earnings losses after job loss than wealthier peers. Because earnings losses are largest for individuals least able to smooth consumption, standard estimates understate heterogeneity in welfare losses. The relationship between wealth and displacement costs persist after controlling for worker and employer characteristics that are highlighted in the displacement literature. Using parental death as an instrument for liquid wealth growth, we show that inheritances significantly reduce displacement costs for hand-to-mouth individuals but have no effect for wealthier workers. |
| Keywords: | Job displacement; Wealth; Hand-to-mouth; Job search; Earnings losses |
| JEL: | E24 J31 J62 J63 J64 J65 |
| Date: | 2026–02–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:umnees:1043 |
| By: | Marc Witte (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam and Tinbergen Institute); Johanna Roth (Sciences Po); Morgan Hardy (New York University Abu Dhabi); Christian Johannes Meyer (University of Oxford) |
| Abstract: | We present findings from an at-scale randomized trial of a government program providing public employment services in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, with up-to-date vacancy information. Before the program, women with relatively less education searched more narrowly with worse labor market outcomes than the rest of our representative sample of relevant job seekers. These women also have lower direct intervention take-up than the rest of the sample. However, only these women significantly increase applications, receive more offers, shift from household enterprise work to wage employment, and experience higher earnings in response to the intervention. These employment impacts are larger than can be explained by vacancies directly curated through the intervention. Instead, these women adjust search behavior, expectations, and employment aspirations more broadly. Notably, offers come through friends and family networks, their modal baseline search method, underscoring the potential role of social networks in disseminating employment information to the most marginalized job seekers. |
| Keywords: | Public Employment Services, Labor Market Frictions, Marginalized Job Seekers, Randomized Controlled Trial (RCT) |
| JEL: | J08 J16 J64 O15 |
| Date: | 2025–07–25 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tin:wpaper:20250044 |
| By: | Sonia Bhalotra (University of Warwick); N.Meltem Daysal (Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen); Louis Fréget (Paris-Dauphine PSL University); Jonas Cuzulan Hirani (VIVE); Priyama Majumdar (University of Warwick); Mircea Trandafir (Rockwool Foundation); Miriam Wüst (Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen); Tom Zohar (CEMFI) |
| Abstract: | Using Danish administrative data linked to two independent, validated postpartum depression screenings, we study how postpartum mental health shocks shape womens labor market trajectories. Event-study estimates show no pre-birth differences in trends between depressedand non-depressed mothers, but persistent employment gaps that widen immediately after birth. Health-care utilization patterns indicate that these differences reflect acute mental health shocks rather than pre-existing trends. The penalties are concentrated among less educated mothers and those in less family-friendly jobs. Our results highlight postpartum depression as a meaningful and unequal contributor to the motherhood penalty. |
| Keywords: | Postpartum depression, motherhood penalty, labor market inequality |
| JEL: | I12 J13 J16 |
| Date: | 2026–01–29 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:kud:kucebi:2601 |
| By: | Patricia Cortés; Jisoo Hwang; Jessica Pan; Uta Schönberg |
| Abstract: | Despite substantial convergence in men’s and women’s economic roles, gender gaps in labor market outcomes persist across countries. This article provides a unified framework for understanding how gender norms shape economic behavior, distinguishing between internalized norms—preferences and beliefs tied to gender identity—and external norms arising from peer pressure and social coordination. We first document cross-country and within-country variation in gender attitudes, alongside gradual but uneven shifts toward more egalitarian views. We then review empirical evidence on the origins, persistence, and transmission of gender norms, and their effects on human capital accumulation, labor supply, wages, and policy take-up. The review highlights both the durability of gender norms and the mechanisms through which policies, institutions, and media can induce norm change, with implications for the design of effective interventions. |
| JEL: | J16 J22 J24 |
| Date: | 2026–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34716 |
| By: | Berlinski, Samuel; Cruces, Guillermo; Galiani, Sebastián; Gertler, Paul; Gonzalez, Fabian Enrique |
| Abstract: | We study the long-run effects of a large public expansion of pre-primary education in Argentina. Between 1993 and 1999, the federal government financed the construction of new preschool classrooms targeted to departments with low baseline enrollment and high poverty, creating roughly 186, 000 additional places. We link administrative records on classroom construction to four population censuses and estimate difference-in-differences models that compare treated and untreated cohorts across high- and low-construction departments. An additional preschool seat per child increases post-kindergarten schooling by about 0.5 years, raising the probability of completing secondary school by 11.9 percentage points and of enrolling in post-secondary education by 7.1 percentage points. For women, access to the program also reduces completed fertility: an additional seat lowers the number of live births per woman by 0.18. We find no evidence that selective migration biases these estimates. Our results show little impact on labor-market outcomes at the census date, consistent with beneficiaries still being in school or in the early stages of their careers. A benefit-cost analysis based on the estimated schooling gains, standard Mincer returns, and observed construction and operating costs yields a benefit-cost ratio of about 11 and an internal rate of return of 13%. Our findings show that universal at-scale pre-primary expansions in middle-income countries can generate sizable improvements in human capital and demographic outcomes at relatively low fiscal cost. |
| JEL: | J13 J16 J38 O15 |
| Date: | 2026–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:idb:brikps:14483 |
| By: | Scott A. Imberman; Michael F. Lovenheim; Patrick Massey; Kevin M. Stange; Rodney J. Andrews |
| Abstract: | Gender and racial/ethnic gaps in labor market earnings remain large, even among college-goers. Cross-gender and race/ethnic differences in choice of and returns to college major are potentially important contributors. Following Texas public high school graduates for up to 20 years through college and the labor market, we assess gender and racial differences in college major choices and the consequences of these choices. Women and underrepresented minorities are less likely than men, Whites, and Asians to major in high earning fields like business, economics, engineering, and computer science, however we also show that they experience lower returns to these majors. Differences in major-specific returns relative to liberal arts explain about one quarter of the gender, White-Black, and White-Hispanic (but not White-Asian) earnings gaps among four-year college students and become larger contributors to earnings gaps than differential major distributions as workers age. We present suggestive evidence that differences in occupation choices within field are a key driver of the differences in returns across groups. The work shines light on the roles that college major choice and returns by gender and race contribute to inequality. |
| JEL: | I23 I26 J24 |
| Date: | 2026–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34726 |
| By: | Zongwu Cai (Department of Economics, The University of Kansas, Lawrence, KS 66045, USA); Guannan Liu (School of Economics and WISE, Xiamen University, Xiamen, Fujian 361005, China); Wei Long (Department of Economics, Tulane University, New Orleans, LA 70118, USA); Xuelong Luo (School of Finance, Fujian Business University, Fuzhou, Fujian 350016, China) |
| Abstract: | Based on longitudinal PSID data, this article examines the trajectory of intergenerational mobility in the United States over the past three decades by employing a time-varying mixed copula model as outlined by Yang et al. (2022). Our findings reveal a gradual decline in intergenerational mobility, particularly in terms of permanent incomes, between parents and children over time. This heightened income inequality persists across various racial and regional demographics, although subgroup analyses unveil some heterogeneous patterns in the paths of intergenerational mobility. |
| Keywords: | Copula; Hellinger distance; Intergenerational mobility; Longitudinal data; Shannon's entropy; Time-varying. |
| JEL: | C43 J62 D63 |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:kan:wpaper:202604 |
| By: | Susan Athey; Emil Palikot |
| Abstract: | We evaluate two interventions facilitating technology-sector transitions for women in Poland: Mentoring, focused on expanding professional networks, and Challenges, focused on building credible skill signals. Randomizing oversubscribed admissions, we find both programs substantially increase technology employment at twelve months-by 15 percentage points for Mentoring and 11 p.p. for Challenges. The distinct mechanisms through which the programs operate translate to heterogeneous treatment effects across geography, career stage, and baseline credentials. These differential effects create scope for improved allocation: algorithmic targeting across programs outperforms random assignment by 86% and outperforms experts' selection into Mentoring by 11%. |
| JEL: | J24 J44 J62 |
| Date: | 2026–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34750 |
| By: | Zongwu Cai (Department of Economics, The University of Kansas, Lawrence, KS 66045, USA); Weitong Wang (School of Economics, Dongbei University of Finance and Economics, Dalian, Liaoning 116025, China); Jing Yuan (School of Statistics, Shandong Technology and Business University, Yantai, Shandong 264005, China) |
| Abstract: | This paper integrates income inequality and intergenerational mobility (IGM) under a unified framework, providing a theoretical basis for the nonlinear measurement of IGM. Also, it proposes using a nonparametric quantile regression gradient boosting tree model to estimate the China's nonlinear IGM elasticity and to study the interactive effects of macro-micro determinants. The empirical results show that using the nonlinear IGM elasticity, IGM should be significantly enhanced, with the maximum increase reaching 12.92%. Furthermore, the fitting of the nonlinear quantile regression gradient boosting tree model is superior to that of the linear quantile regression model. The nonlinear characteristics are particularly significant for the population with an annual income between 30, 000 yuan and 150, 000 yuan. China's intergenerational income elasticity lies between 0.1861 and 0.7026, and parental income evidently affects offspring income with a "strong two-tailed and weak middle" pattern. Moreover, there are income and regional heterogeneities in the characteristics of IGM, and there are significant differences in the income transmission process and the degree of nonlinearity among different regions. Finally, this paper explores IGM traits of income spectrum extreme groups and the "poverty trap" in China. The results show that the most important influencing factors for achieving income class crossing are economic growth, industrial optimization, intergenerational educational mobility, and wealth capital investment. |
| Keywords: | Income inequality; Intergenerational mobility; Nonlinearity; Quantile regression gradient boosting tree; Partial dependence relationship |
| JEL: | J62 D63 C43 I31 |
| Date: | 2025–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:kan:wpaper:20201 |
| By: | Bavaro, Michele; Trinh, Nhat An (WZB Berlin Social Science Center) |
| Abstract: | The relationship between international migration and social mobility has been a central topic in recent research, with scholars highlighting the influence of socioeconomic resources, aspirational attitudes, and structural barriers on the social mobility experience of migrants. This study extends existing work and examines the intergenerational social mobility of first- and second-generation immigrants in 22 European countries. Using fully harmonized and nationally representative data (EU-SILC, 2019), we provide a comparative analysis of absolute mobility in terms of social class and economic hardship. Our results show that mobility patterns differ across dimensions and generations: First-generation migrants generally experience more downward mobility than upward mobility, whereas for the second generation upward mobility is more prevalent in some countries. The first generation is also more likely to experience downward class mobility compared to natives, while chances of upward hardship mobility are higher on average despite cross-country variation. Migrant-native gaps in class and hardship mobility are smaller for the second generation. Differences in own and parental education between natives and migrants cannot fully account for observed gaps, suggesting the relevance of other factors in driving persistent inequalities in opportunities for social mobility. |
| Keywords: | Social mobility, migration, cross-country comparison, first and second generation, Europe |
| Date: | 2026–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:amz:wpaper:2026-02 |
| By: | Krishna Pendakur and Ravi Pendakur (Simon Fraser University) |
| Abstract: | We estimate Indigenous labour market disparity amongst Canadian-born workers over 1995-2020 and describe new facts about earnings patterns. We find dramatic convergence in earnings for Indigenous workers with earnings gaps shrinking by more than half, from 36 to 16 percent for Indigenous men and 16 to 6 percent for Indigenous women. We also explore heterogeneity across seven distinct Indigenous categories, defined by legal status, identity and ancestry. We see this convergence for Registered Indigenous workers living off-reserve, and for unregistered Indigenous workers who report First Nations or Metis identity and for workers who do not report Indigenous identity but do report Indigenous ancestry. However, we see much less convergence for Registered Indigenous workers living on reserve. |
| Date: | 2026–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sfu:sfudps:dp26-02 |
| By: | Kevin André Pineda-Hernández; François Rycx; Mélanie Volral; Alexandre Waroquier |
| Abstract: | While rent-sharing is known to vary according to worker characteristics, the impact of profits on the gender wage gap warrants closer examination. Most studies adopt a single-gender view, neglecting factors tied to bargaining power. Our paper aims to fill this gap by leveraging rich matched employer-employee data covering the Belgian private sector from 1999 to 2016 and by examining whether the relationship between rent-sharing and gender depends on variables reflecting bargaining power, i.e. level of education, field of study, tenure, occupation and type of wage agreement. Accounting for a wide range of individual, job and firm characteristics, and addressing potential endogeneity issues, we find a wage-profit elasticity of 2.8%, which does not differ statistically between women and men. Our results further indicate that firms share more of their profits with workers who have greater bargaining power, as assessed by our moderators. This result holds overall for both women and men, so that the price effect associated with rent-sharing is generally insignificant in explaining the gender wage gap. Conversely, given that women, regardless of their bargaining power, tend to be employed in less profitable firms than their male counterparts, the quantity effect associated with rent-sharing appears to play a non-negligible role. In short, our findings suggest that it is not so much the unequal sharing of profits within companies that fuels the gender pay gap, but rather the segregation of women, particularly those with limited bargaining power, into less profitable companies. |
| Keywords: | Rent-sharing; linked employer-employee data; wage decompositions; instrumental variables; gender wage gap; bargaining power |
| JEL: | C26 J16 J24 J31 |
| Date: | 2026–01–29 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sol:wpaper:2013/402522 |
| By: | Stansbury, Anna; Rodriguez, Kyra |
| Abstract: | Unlike gender or race, class background is rarely a focus of research on career progression, or of DEI efforts in elite occupations. Should it be? In this paper we document a large class gap in career progression in one occupation—U.S. tenure-track academia—using parental education to proxy for class background. First-generation college graduates are 10% less likely to be tenured at an R1, are tenured at institutions ranked 11% lower, earn 3% less, and report 5% lower job satisfaction, than their former Ph.D. classmates (from the same institution and field) with a parent with a non-Ph.D. graduate degree. Neither selection out of academia nor different preferences explain this gap; differential research productivity also plays little role. Instead, likely drivers are differences in cultural and social capital. We also find a class gap in career progression for Ph.D.s who work in industry, suggesting this phenomenon generalizes outside academia. (Stone Center on Socio-Economic Inequality Working Paper) |
| Date: | 2026–02–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:ugdjf_v1 |