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on Labour Economics |
| By: | Eran B. Hoffmann; Monika Piazzesi; Martin Schneider |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the connection between regional growth trends and labor market dynamics. New data on manufacturing worker flows for U.S. cities 1969-1981 show more new hires and more voluntary quits in growing cities, but more forced layoffs in shrinking cities. Recessions are special in growing cities in that hires and quits drop, whereas in shrinking cities layoffs rise. A quantitative business cycle model with migration and on-the-job search accounts for a large share of variation in growth and worker flows both over time and across space. Growing cities in the South and West had low job creation costs and only gradual in-migration, so tight labor markets encouraged more on-the-job search. In those cities, aggregate job destruction shocks generated recessions with lower labor market churn. In the shrinking cities of the Rust Belt, in contrast, churn was always low and responded little in recessions. |
| JEL: | E30 E32 J62 J63 J64 R11 R12 R13 |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34515 |
| By: | Yanina Domenella (CEMFI, Centro de Estudios Monetarios y Financieros) |
| Abstract: | In this paper, I examine the impact of administrative delays in obtaining Spanish nationality on the long-term labor market outcomes of legal immigrants. Using Social Security data from 2006 to 2019 and an instrumental variable strategy, I find that longer delays in nationality acquisition result in significantly lower accumulated earnings over a ten-year period, driven by both lower wages and fewer days worked. Specifically, one additional year of delay reduces accumulated earnings over 10 years by 3.8 to 6.7 percent. To understand the underlying mechanisms, I study the short-term effects of nationality acquisition on job mobility and job quality. The results suggest that delays prolong the period of restricted mobility, hindering access to better employment opportunities. After obtaining the nationality, immigrants can afford a more selective and longer job search that pays off in the long run. These findings underscore the importance of timely nationality acquisition for improving economic outcomes and highlight the need for efficient administrative processes to support immigrant integration. |
| Keywords: | Nationality acquisition, administrative delays, immigration policy, labormarket outcomes, job mobility, Spain. |
| JEL: | F22 J61 J62 K37 |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cmf:wpaper:wp2025_2527 |
| By: | Aakash Bhalothia; Gavin Engelstad; Gaurav Khanna; Harrison Mitchell |
| Abstract: | We estimate the economic value of cities worldwide, using detailed job histories for 513 million workers in 220, 000 cities across 191 countries. These estimates allow us to identify why some cities are more productive than others and to quantify the earnings gains from migration throughout the development process. Our data contain job spells—with start and end dates, establishment names, locations, job titles, and effective salaries—enabling an event-study movers design with individual and time fixed effects. Moving to higher-value cities leads to immediate increases in job seniority, shifts into better-paid industries and occupations, and large overall earnings gains. The global scope of the data lets us compare internal and international moves and assess how the productivity advantages of cities differ by country income level. Across borders, 93% of wage changes reflect city effects, while within countries this share ranges from 45–73%. High-income countries exhibit stronger ability-based sorting, reducing the proportion attributable to place. City effects rise with industrial diversity and population, consistent with agglomeration economies, and more productive cities allocate workers to higher-productivity firms. The wide dispersion of city effects within countries highlights substantial potential gains from migration, particularly in low-income, less-urbanized economies. Reallocating workers to match the US distribution yields sizable wage gains in developing countries. |
| JEL: | J38 J6 O15 R12 R23 |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34503 |
| By: | Moroni, Gloria (Dept. of Economics, Ca' Foscari University of Venice); Nicoletti, Cheti (Dept. of economics, University of York); Salvanes, Kjell Gunnar (Dept. of Economics, Norwegian School of Economics and Business Administration); Tominey, Emma (Dept. of Economics, University of York) |
| Abstract: | We revisit the economic effects of marriage, analysing its heterogeneous impact on the intra-household labour division following childbirth. Can marriage promote coordination of work and child activities between parents and a gender egalitarian division of labour? Using a marginal treatment effect framework, we find the average effect of marriage is to increase parental specialization and worsen the mother’s child penalty. However, we find differences across couples with varying resistance to marriage. While traditional couples (low-resistance) exhibit increased specialization; in modern couples (high-resistance) fathers have an earnings penalty and take more paternity leave, suggesting more coordination and gender equality. |
| Keywords: | Cohabitation; Marriage; Specialization; Cooperation; Child human capital |
| JEL: | J11 J12 J13 J18 |
| Date: | 2025–11–26 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:nhheco:2025_020 |
| By: | Julia Baarck (ifo Institute); Moritz Bode (University of Copenhagen and CEBI); Andreas Peichl (ifo Institute) |
| Abstract: | This paper is the first to show that intergenerational income mobility in Germany has decreased over time. We estimate intergenerational persistence for the birth cohorts 1968-1987 and find that it rises sharply for cohorts born in the late 1970s and early 1980s, after which it stabilizes at a higher level. As a step towards understanding the mechanisms behind this increase, we show that parental income has become more important for educational outcomes of children. Moreover, we show that the increase in intergenerational persistence coincided with a surge in cross-sectional income inequality, providing novel evidence for an "Intertemporal Great Gatsby Curve''. |
| Keywords: | intergenerational mobility; social mobility; income; education; inequality; |
| JEL: | J62 I24 D63 |
| Date: | 2025–10–31 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rco:dpaper:550 |
| By: | Gallegos Torres, Katia; Sommerfeld, Katrin |
| Abstract: | We study how low and medium-skilled refugee immigration affects natives' labor market outcomes. Using individual-level panel data on the German workforce for 2011-2019 and exogenous regional variation from processing authorities' distances, we find that a larger inflow of refugees to a district increases the probability of full-time employment for incumbent workers. Fewer outflows of employment drive this effect. The yearly estimates suggest positive labor demand responses in the short run - in occupations that supply services to the refugees - and positive labor supply effects in the medium run - in manufacturing occupations. Wages, job task composition, and job changes remain unaffected, though positive mobility responses are observed. |
| Keywords: | refugee migration, labor market outcomes, complementarities |
| JEL: | J15 J21 J31 J61 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:zewdip:333394 |
| By: | Roberto Basile (Department of Legal and Economic Studies, Sapienza University of Rome); Cinzia Castagnaro (Italian National Institute of Statistics (ISTAT)); Francesca Centofanti (University of Rome "Tor Vergata"); Francesca Licari (Italian National Institute of Statistics (ISTAT)) |
| Abstract: | Population aging challenges welfare systems, particularly in rapidly aging countries such as Italy. Using municipality-level data (2002–2023), this paper examines aging dynamics through the Potential Support Ratio (PSR), the ratio of working-age (15–64) to old-age (65+) population. We apply a beta regression framework to analyze spatial convergence and a two-step decomposition to disentangle the contributions of cohort turnover, mortality, and migration. Findings show strong convergence in aging, with international migration partly mitigating demographic imbalance, while internal migration exacerbates it, increasing fragility in peripheral areas. Policy implications highlight the need to strengthen welfare sustainability and regional equity. |
| Keywords: | population aging; migration; potential support ratio; Italy; spatial convergence |
| JEL: | F22 J61 R23 C14 C21 |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gfe:pfrp00:00077 |
| By: | Michaelides, Marios (Actus Policy Research); Mueser, Peter; Poe-Yamagata, Eileen; Davis, Scott |
| Abstract: | The Reemployment Services and Eligibility Assessment (RESEA) program is a job-search assistance intervention targeting Unemployment Insurance (UI) claimants in the United States. The program requires new UI claimants to attend a counseling session at the start of their UI claims to: 1) undergo an eligibility review to confirm their compliance with UI work search requirements, and 2) receive customized reemployment services. This study reports the results of a large-scale randomized controlled trial (RCT) of the Wisconsin RESEA program conducted in 2022-2023, a period of strong labor market conditions. Results show that the program increased take-up of job counseling services and significantly reduced UI duration and benefit amounts collected, generating substantial savings for the UI system. Further, requiring participants to attend a follow-up counseling session is shown to cause additional reductions in UI receipt, beyond those achieved by the initial session. |
| Date: | 2025–11–28 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:zp24c_v1 |
| By: | Grenet, Julien (Paris School of Economics and CNRS); Grönqvist, Hans (Department of Economics and Statistics); Hertegård, Edvin (SOFI, Stockholm University); Nybom, Martin (IFAU, Uppsala University); Stuhler, Jan (Department of Economics, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid) |
| Abstract: | We study how students adjust their early career choices in response to economic crises and how these decisions affect their long-run labor market outcomes. Focusing on Sweden’s deep recession in the early 1990s-which hit the manufacturing and construction sectors hardest—we first show that students whose fathers lost jobs in these sectors were more likely to choose career paths tied to less-affected industries. These students later experienced better labor market outcomes, including higher employment and earnings. Our findings suggest that informational frictions are a key obstacle to structural change and identify career choice as an important channel through which recessions reshape labor markets in the long run. |
| Keywords: | High School Major; Recession; Information Frictions; Structural Change |
| JEL: | E32 I25 J24 J63 |
| Date: | 2025–11–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:vxesta:2025_001 |
| By: | Matias Ciaschi; Mario Negre; Guido Neidhöfer |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we present comprehensive evidence on intergenerational mobility in Mozambique—the country with the lowest documented level of mobility worldwide—and investigate its relationship with child labour. Using survey data that include a module on non-co-resident adult children, we document a strong link between children's educational attainment and parental education and household wealth. |
| Keywords: | Social mobility, Child labour, Education, Mozambique, Labour market |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unu:wpaper:wp-2025-94 |
| By: | Landersø, Rasmus (Rockwool Foundation Research Unit); Karlson, Kristian B. (University of Copenhagen) |
| Abstract: | This paper studies intergenerational educational mobility among immigrants and descendants in Denmark for cohorts born between 1965 and 1990. At first glance, the data suggests that immigrants experience higher mobility than native Danes, but this pattern is driven by low coverage and poor data quality of parental education information in administrative registers. Among immigrants with the most reliable data, mobility patterns closely resemble those of natives. Auxiliary analyses using representative survey data corroborate this finding. Moreover, including immigrants in population-wide mobility estimates—given their artificially high relative mobility—attenuates trends in estimated mobility, especially for cohorts bornin the 1980s. |
| Keywords: | native-immigrant gaps, educational mobility, data quality |
| JEL: | E43 E52 |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18284 |
| By: | Bachmann, Ronald; Heinze, Inga; Klauser, Roman |
| Abstract: | Worker mobility plays a central role in facilitating structural change and addressing labour shortages in labour markets. This paper examines the incentives for workers to change jobs or occupations by analyzing subsequent gains in earnings and job satisfaction. We distinguish between different types of mobility based on changes in occupational content and complexity. The results reveal that job mobility is positively associated with both wage and job satisfaction gains. While this relationship holds across most forms of mobility, the largest improvements are observed for horizontal mobility, i.e. a change of occupational content at the same level of occupational complexity, and diagonal mobility, i.e. a change of both occupational content and complexity. Our findings indicate substantial heterogeneities across worker groups: while women who change jobs experience wage growth comparable to men, women who remain in their job exhibit lower wage growth. For workers with a migration background, mobility primarily yields monetary benefits, whereas increases in job satisfaction are smaller than for non-migrant workers. |
| Abstract: | Arbeitnehmermobilität spielt eine zentrale Rolle bei der Umsetzung des strukturellen Wandels und der Bewältigung von Fachkräfteengpässen auf den Arbeitsmärkten. Dieses Papier untersucht die Anreize für Arbeitnehmer, den Arbeitsplatz oder den Beruf zu wechseln, indem es die daraus realisierbaren Einkommens- und Arbeitszufriedenheitsgewinne analysiert. Wir unterscheiden dabei zwischen verschiedenen Arten der Mobilität, basierend auf Veränderungen im Tätigkeitsinhalt und in der Komplexität der ausgeübten Arbeit. Unsere Ergebnisse zeigen, dass berufliche Mobilität sowohl mit Einkommens- als auch mit Arbeitszufriedenheitszuwächsen positiv zusammenhängt. Während dieser Zusammenhang für die meisten Formen der Mobilität gilt, zeigen sich die größten Verbesserungen bei horizontaler Mobilität - also einem Wechsel des Tätigkeitsinhalts bei gleichbleibender Komplexität - sowie bei diagonaler Mobilität, also einem Wechsel sowohl des Tätigkeitsinhalts als auch der Komplexität. Weiterhin weisen unsere Ergebnisse auf erhebliche Unterschiede zwischen Arbeitnehmergruppen hin: Während Frauen, die den Arbeitsplatz wechseln, ein mit Männern vergleichbares Lohnwachstum erfahren, verzeichnen Frauen, die in ihrer Stelle verbleiben, ein geringeres Lohnwachstum. Bei Arbeitnehmern mit Migrationshintergrund führt Mobilität vor allem zu monetären Vorteilen, während die Zuwächse in der Arbeitszufriedenheit geringer ausfallen als bei nicht-migrantischen Arbeitnehmern. |
| Keywords: | Job mobility, occupational mobility, wage, job satisfaction, structural change |
| JEL: | J62 J31 J28 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:rwirep:331882 |
| By: | Umblijs, Janis; Hermansen, Are Skeie |
| Abstract: | Personal names are visible markers of ethnic identity that can shape access to economic opportunity. While field experiments provide ample evidence that foreign-sounding names limit immigrants’ access to employment, far less is known about how names shape career trajectories beyond the point of hire in naturally unfolding labor market settings. Using unique administrative data with longitudinal information on personal names, we investigate how changing from a foreign-sounding to a name more typical in the native-born majority improves the labor market outcomes of immigrants and their children. Covering the entire population in Norway, these data allow us to calculate names’ ethnic distinctiveness and observe when individuals pursue a name-assimilation strategy. We exploit the timing of name changes in a difference-in-differences event study design following individuals before and after name change, with individuals who changed their names later as the control group. We find that adopting a mainstream name increases non-Western immigrants’ earnings by approximately 30 percent. These gains stem primarily from movement into stable, higher-paying jobs rather than wage growth within firms, indicating that name assimilation reduces barriers to job entry rather than influencing advancement within workplaces. These findings provide rare causal evidence on the economic payoff of symbolic assimilation and show how ethnic signals continue to structure opportunity in contemporary labor markets. |
| Date: | 2025–11–28 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:rd3gv_v1 |
| By: | Yanina Domenella (Universidad Autónoma de Madrid); Samuel Bentolila (CEMFI, Centro de Estudios Monetarios y Financieros) |
| Abstract: | People with intellectual and developmental disabilities (PID) show significantly lower labor force participation and employment rates compared to people without disabilities. Customized Employment (CE) has emerged as a promising approach to improve their labor market integration. This study provides the first causal evidence on CE’s effectiveness relative to the traditional Supported Employment approach through a randomized controlled trial in Spain. Our findings show that CE substantially improves employability by increasing employment probability, hours worked, and the number of labor contracts. It also enhances participation in training programs and internships. Beyond employment, CE significantly fosters social inclusion and well-being, with effects varying based on severity of disability, recognition of dependency, and family involvement. These results underscore CE’s potential as an effective strategy for improving both labor market outcomes and social integration of PIDs. |
| Keywords: | Customized employment, supported employment, disability, labor market inclusion, social integration, field experiment, Spain. |
| JEL: | J14 J21 I31 I38 C93 |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cmf:wpaper:wp2025_2528 |
| By: | Assaf Razin |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the consequences of regime change for both migration and foreign direct investment (FDI) by employing quasi-natural experiments that exploit external and internal shocks to democratic institutions. It compares evidence from Europe, which was afflicted by the “Syrian Shock”—an external institutional stress testing administrative and fiscal capacity—and Israel, which experienced the “Corruption Shock”—an internal credibility crisis that eroded judicial independence and policy predictability. These two shocks provide a natural experiment to examine how weakening democratic institutions influence both capital mobility and people mobility, using a unified econometric framework. The analysis applies Difference-in-Differences (DiD) estimation to OECD panel data spanning 1995–2023 to isolate the causal effects of institutional deterioration on FDI inflows and migration flows. The DiD approach, complemented by fixed effects at the country and year levels, captures both the short-term disruptions caused by exogenous humanitarian pressures and the long-term persistence of governance-driven uncertainty. The results demonstrate that internal shocks—such as Israel’s judicial and corruption crises—generate large and durable declines in FDI and sustained outward migration, while external shocks—such as Europe’s refugee crisis—produce more transient effect. |
| JEL: | D7 H1 |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34497 |
| By: | Christoph Boehm; Aaron B. Flaaen; Nitya Pandalai-Nayar; Jan Schlupp |
| Abstract: | We develop a new algorithm to map confidential firm-level export transactions to their underlying establishments that can be implemented on U.S. microdata. Using this procedure, we construct a novel micro-dataset of U.S. exports at the plant level. Aggregation of these data permits more accurate measurement of exporting at the subnational level (e.g., county, MSA, etc.) than was previously possible. The data reveal exports to be much more geographically concentrated than both employment and manufacturing sales, implying that some regions are heavily reliant on foreign demand. To illustrate the consequences of such exposure, we study the effects of the trade collapse during the Great Recession on local labor markets. Counties experiencing greater declines in foreign demand performed worse in terms of employment, pay, and wages during the Great Recession. A similar analysis implemented with publicly available imputed export data—a common practice in the literature—fails to replicate these estimates. |
| JEL: | F0 F10 F14 F16 |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34508 |
| By: | Luke N. Condra; Daniel B. Jones; Randall P. Walsh |
| Abstract: | How does the trauma associated with exposure to racial violence affect economic outcomes? We study this question in the context of lynchings of Black citizens in the American South between 1880 and 1940 and provide systematic evidence of long-run economic impacts of that violence for the broader community and the effects’ persistence across generations. First, using data on averted lynchings and matched placebos as counterfactuals, we show that children indirectly exposed to the racial trauma of lynchings (proxied by close proximity to the victim’s household location) exhibit a reduction in occupational income score and likelihood of holding a white collar occupation, in their prime earning years as adults. We also observe intergenerational effects: children of the individuals who were exposed (as children) to lynchings see, as adults observed in 1940, a reduction in their income relative to counterfactual individuals. By documenting long-run and intergenerational economic effects of exposure to lynchings, we add empirical evidence to an interdisciplinary literature that identifies racial trauma as a distinctive and durable form of psychological harm. |
| JEL: | N0 |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34523 |
| By: | Kerndl, Benedikt |
| Abstract: | This study examines whether there are common economic characteristics shared by populists upon assuming power and investigates the impact of these policies on the economy. The research focuses on four key characteristics associated with populism: Protectionism and Globalization, The Economics of Migration, Macroeconomics, and The Democratic Status. The paper finds that populist leaders, especially right-wing populists, exhibit xenophobic rhetoric and pursue policies of economic and migratory nationalism and protectionism. Additionally, countries governed by populists tend to experience adverse economic outcomes, including declines in real GDP, high levels of debt, and erosion of democratic institutions such as an independent judiciary, quality of elections, and freedom of the press and media. A case study on Donald Trump's presidency reveals that his macroeconomic agenda closely aligns with typical populists and right-wing populists. His trade and migration policies reflect protectionism and prioritize domestic workers' concerns, while his behavior as president affected the democratic institutions of the United States. The research underscores the need for further comprehensive investigations into the economic implications of populism. |
| Keywords: | Populism, Right-Wing Populism, USA, U.S. Economy, Donald Trump, Economic Populism |
| JEL: | P16 E65 F13 J61 D72 H63 O43 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ipewps:333420 |
| By: | Roberto Basile (Department of Legal and Economic Studies, Sapienza University of Rome); Francesca Centofanti (University of Rome "Tor Vergata"); Giovanna Ciaffi (University of Bari "Aldo Moro"); Francesca Licari (Italian National Institute of Statistics (ISTAT)) |
| Abstract: | This paper evaluates the demographic effects of two major earthquakes — L’Aquila 2009 and Central Italy 2016 — in Central-Southern Italy, a wide area already experiencing depopulation due to factors unrelated to natural disasters. Using municipality-level data (2002–2023) and a difference-in-differences design with multiple groups and periods, we estimate causal impacts on depopulation, age structure, natural dynamics, and migration. Results suggest an acceleration of the decline in the overall population of the area due to these natural disasters, especially among elder Italians, largely driven by out-migration, while natural demographic dynamics remained stable. Effects differ across disasters: the 2016 earthquake caused declines in all age groups, whereas in 2009 population losses among elderly Italians were offset by gains in working-age foreigners. |
| Keywords: | natural disasters; demography; earthquakes; migration; Italy; depopulation |
| JEL: | J11 Q54 R10 |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gfe:pfrp00:00075 |
| By: | Rodgers, Winthrop |
| Abstract: | A decade-long financial crisis in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq (KRI) has hit public servants the hardest. In response to retaliatory budget cuts by Iraq’s federal government over Kurdish independent oil exports, the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) initiated a range of austerity measures seeking to maintain financial solvency. This policy included the non-payment and delay of salaries, a formal salary withholding scheme, dramatic reductions in public sector recruitment, and the suspension of promotions for existing workers. It resulted in extensive economic, social, and political consequences that have contributed to the breakdown of the KRI’s social contract and eroded the power of the two ruling parties. Despite its local importance, this issue has attracted little academic and international media attention, which this paper attempts to address. |
| JEL: | R14 J01 |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:130368 |