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on Labour Economics |
| By: | Eskelinen, Niko; Jernström, Laura; Salokangas, Henri |
| Abstract: | Using high-quality administrative data, we study how parental labor market shocks affect children’s socioeconomic disadvantage. We find that the job loss of both fathers and mothers significantly increases the likelihood that children will experience a range of socioeconomic disadvantage indicators in adulthood, including being not in education, employment, or training (NEET), reliance on social assistance, and the use of unemployment benefits. In relative terms, we find that parental job loss increases children’s risk of socioeconomic disadvantage by up to 4.5% for sons and up to 3.9% for daughters. These effects persist for more than a decade after parental job displacement. The adverse impacts are particularly pronounced for boys and children exposed at older ages, suggesting heterogeneous vulnerability based on gender and developmental stage. Our results indicate that good labor market conditions – particularly in the case of fathers – may mitigate the adverse effects of parental job loss. |
| Date: | 2025–10–22 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:bs3fd_v1 |
| By: | Patrick Bennett; Julian Vedeler Johnsen |
| Abstract: | We study how the labor market shocks of automation and immigration interact to shape workers’ outcomes. Using matched employer–employee data from Norwegian administrative registers, we combine an immigration shock triggered by the European Union’s 2004 enlargement with an automation shock based on the adoption of industrial robots across Europe. Although these shocks largely occur in separate industries, we show that automation reduces earnings not only in manufacturing but also in construction, where tasks overlap with robot-exposed sectors. Importantly, workers jointly exposed to automation and immigration suffer earnings losses greater than those facing either shock in isolation. These losses are driven by downward occupational mobility into low-wage services and re-sorting into lower-premium firms. Even within the Norwegian welfare system, the ability of social insurance to offset these long-run earnings declines is limited. Our findings underscore the importance of analyzing labor market shocks jointly, rather than in isolation, to fully understand their distributional consequences. |
| Keywords: | automation, immigration, labor market shocks |
| JEL: | J01 J61 J24 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12217 |
| By: | Simone Moriconi (IESEG School of Management, Univ. Lille, CNRS, UMR 9221 - LEM, Institut Convergences Migrations); Mikaël Pasternak (Univ. Lille, CNRS, IESEG School of Management, UMR 9221 - LEM, Institut Convergences Migration); Ahmed Trita (Univ. University of Poitiers, LEP, UM6P-ABS Chaire EIEA, FR CNRS TEPP, Institut Convergences Migrations); Nadiya Ukrayinchuk (Univ. Lille, CNRS, IESEG School of Management, UMR 9221 - LEM, Institut Convergences Migration) |
| Abstract: | We provide new evidence on intergenerational social mobility among immigrants and natives in France. Using linked parent–child data from censuses, we introduce an individual-level metric - the Intergenerational Rank Difference (IRD) - that measures upward and downward mobility relative to the highest-ranked parent across both education and predicted income. We document a robust mobility premium for second-generation immigrants: on average, they achieve a predicted income rank six percentiles higher than observationally equivalent natives, with the advantage most pronounced among women, children of two immigrant parents, and those from disadvantaged households. Educational gains explain part of this differential, but labormarket advancement plays the larger role. Internal migration emerges as an important channel, as immigrant movers disproportionately relocate to high-mobility areas. Finally, a spatial analysis highlights substantial heterogeneity: some local areas act as “lands of opportunity, ” while others are associated with stagnation or decline. These findings underscore the interplay of individual characteristics and local contexts in shaping long-run integrat |
| Keywords: | Migration economics, Intergenerational social mobility, Human capital |
| JEL: | J15 J24 J62 J71 I24 |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ies:wpaper:e202501 |
| By: | Stark, Oded (University of Bonn); Byra, Lukasz (University of Warsaw) |
| Abstract: | In “Immigration, search and redistribution: A quantitative assessment of native welfare, ” a paper by Battisti et al. published in the August 2018 issue of the Journal of the European Economic Association, the authors inquire about how migration to 20 Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development countries affects the welfare of the countries’ native workers. We raise several concerns regarding the analytical and the empirical parts of the Battisti et al.’s inquiry that bear on this effect. Calibration of a corrected model reveals that our concerns affect measurably the empirical results regarding the impacts on the welfare of native workers of skill-neutral migration and of migration by low-skill workers. A particular concern is that our calibration of a corrected model yields estimates of the tax rate on workers’ wages that are far too high to be considered feasible. We calibrate a version of the corrected model, which involves “reasonable” tax rates on wages and a budget deficit. The results yielded by this counterfactual version lend support to the results of the corrected model regarding the negative impact of skill-neutral migration and of migration by low-skill workers on the welfare of native workers. |
| Keywords: | recalibration of labor market model, GDP identity, sharing rule of firm-worker match surplus when wages are taxed, unemployment in a migration-destination country, welfare of native workers, migration to OECD countries, skill-neutral migration, migration by low-skill workers |
| JEL: | F22 I31 J64 |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18213 |
| By: | Diogo G.C. Britto; Caio de Holanda; Alexandre Fonseca; Breno Sampaio |
| Abstract: | We investigate the effects of maternity and paternity leave on families and firms. Drawing on rich administrative data linking generations in Brazil and leveraging a policy reform that expanded parental leave, we evaluate the impacts on parents, their spouses, and children, as well as the broader consequences for firms. Our analysis spans labour market outcomes, fertility, health, and education, offering new evidence on the multifaceted effects of parental leave in a developing country context. We find that mothers eligible for extended leave experience a 6.33 p.p. |
| Keywords: | Gender inequality, Child wellbeing, Firms |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unu:wpaper:wp-2025-71 |
| By: | Danzer, Natalia (Freie Universität Berlin); Kranton, Rachel; Larysz, Piotr (Freie Universität Berlin); Senik, Claudia (Paris School of Economics) |
| Abstract: | How do gender identity and norms relate to happiness? This paper takes advantage of the 2024 European Social Survey, which asks respondents to report their feelings of femininity and masculinity, and studies the relationships between these self-assessments, (non-)conformity to gender norms, and life satisfaction. The results show a robust asymmetry between men and women. For men, feeling more masculine, behaving in ways more typical of men, and life satisfaction are all positively cross-correlated. For women, while feeling more feminine and life satisfaction are similarly positively correlated, behaving in ways more typical of women is, in contrast, associated with lower life satisfaction. These patterns vary across European regions, potentially reflecting different histories. The results are robust to alternative measures of typical behavior of men and women and subjective well-being. The findings support theories of gender identity and reveal possible trade-offs implied by gender norms for women. |
| Keywords: | life satisfaction, measures of norms, masculinity, femininity, gender identity, subjective well-being |
| JEL: | I31 J16 Z10 |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18209 |
| By: | Nüß, Patrick |
| Abstract: | I estimate management opposition to unions in terms of hiring discrimination in the German labor market. By sending 13, 000 fictitious job applications, revealing union membership in the CV and pro-union sentiment via social media accounts, I provide evidence for hiring discrimination against union supporters. Callback rates are on average 15% lower for union members. Discrimination is strongest in the presence of a high sectoral share of union members and large firm size. I further explore variation in regional and sectoral strike intensity over time and find suggestive evidence that discrimination increases if a sector is exposed to an intense strike. Discrimination is positively associated with the sectoral share of firms that voluntarily orientate wages to collective agreements. These results indicate that hiring discrimination can be explained by union threat effects. |
| Keywords: | correspondence audit, field experiments, industrial relations, labor disputes, management opposition, trade unions, union threat |
| JEL: | C93 J51 J53 J71 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:iwhdps:330326 |
| By: | Uyanga Byambaa; Edward Miguel; Michael W. Walker; Samuel Zicheng Wang |
| Abstract: | Gender wage gaps persist globally, particularly in poor countries. Using Kenya Life Panel Survey data, we first document a raw gender wage gap of 79 log points (55%). We show it remains large, at 39 log points (32%), even controlling for a novel set of individual characteristics – cognitive performance, personality traits, economic preferences, and job tasks – in addition to standard covariates. These novel factors account for only 20% of the residual gap unexplained by education and occupation. Though most Kenyans report egalitarian gender views, these patterns suggest that barriers still hinder women’s labor outcomes. |
| JEL: | J16 O12 |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34375 |
| By: | Martín-Román, Javier; Martín-Román, Ángel L. |
| Abstract: | This paper assesses the impact of the Agrarian Unemployment Benefit (AUB), a regionally targeted income support scheme introduced in Andalucía, Spain, in 1984. At its peak, the program covered more than 10% of the regional labour force, making it one of the most extensive welfare measures of its kind in Europe. Unlike most previous studies, which focus on micro-level effects of unemployment benefits, this research adopts a macroeconomic perspective to evaluate whether the AUB encouraged or discouraged labour force participation at the extensive margin. The analysis combines a theoretical model of labour supply decisions with the Synthetic Control Method (SCM), which provides a robust counterfactual based on regional data from 1980 to 1996. The results show that the AUB increased Andalucía's participation rate by about two percentage points in the years following its introduction. Nonetheless, the number of newly activated workers remained below the total number of beneficiaries, pointing to only partial compensation of disincentive effects. The study contributes by offering a macro-level evaluation of an income support program, developing a framework that clarifies incentive mechanisms, and applying SCM in this context for the first time. The findings yield relevant lessons for the design of modern welfare schemes and for current debates on place-based policies. |
| Keywords: | Labour supply, Labour force participation, Income support benefits, Synthetic Control Method |
| JEL: | J21 J65 H24 K31 C32 C54 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:1682 |
| By: | Giulia Briselli; Wookun Kim |
| Abstract: | We examine the consequences of South Korea's 2008–10 immigration reforms on the marriage market and intra-household outcomes. The reforms unintentionally reduced foreign bride inflows. Exploiting regional variation in exposure to the reforms and using uniquely rich data—administrative records, household surveys, and registries—we find that the reforms resulted in fewer new marriages, increased women's intra-household bargaining power, shifted in women's time from housework to employment, and increased well-being for both spouses. Divorce rates fell, with a shift from general incompatibility to abuse-related grounds. These findings reveal the reforms' unintended impacts on household dynamics and broader economic implications. |
| Keywords: | immigration, policy reform, marriage market, intra-household allocation, bar-gaining power, divorce |
| JEL: | F22 J12 J16 D13 K37 R23 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12222 |
| By: | Jonathan Davis; Nathan Deutscher; Bhashkar Mazumder |
| Abstract: | Studies of intergenerational mobility have begun to expand outside of the traditional outcomes such as income, education and occupation, into using alternative measures of wellbeing. In this chapter we survey the evidence on studies of these alternative measures with a focus on health, consumption and life satisfaction. We also incorporate lessons from the income mobility literature that may be relevant for how we think about these alternative measures both conceptually and empirically. We highlight a few approaches that researchers can consider to incorporate alternative measures and we conclude that a widening of our conception of intergenerational mobility to incorporate measures of wellbeing may identify shortfalls in some of our current approaches. |
| JEL: | E2 I14 I3 J62 |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34407 |
| By: | BRYSON, Alex; TANAKA, Mari |
| Abstract: | The effects of trade unions on firm performance are theoretically ambiguous. The sizable empirical literature on their effects is almost exclusively confined to developed countries, particularly those in North America and Europe. We contribute to the literature by estimating union effects on firm performance in about 40, 000 firms in 77 developing countries between 2002 and 2011. In doing so, we exploit standardized firm level data collected by the World Bank. We find positive partial correlations between unionization and firm labor productivity and wages, especially in lower-income countries. These positive effects persist when we instrument for union presence, consistent with recent evidence of union positive effects on productivity and wages in western industrialized countries. |
| Keywords: | trade unions, productivity, wages, developing countries, enterprise data, union formation |
| JEL: | J51 |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hit:hituec:774 |
| By: | Bramucci, Francesca (European University Institute); Boudet, Ana Maria Munoz (World Bank); Viollaz, Mariana (CEDLAS-UNLP) |
| Abstract: | Women remain underrepresented in leadership worldwide. Across politics, business, and community organizations, they face barriers limiting access to leadership roles and influence in decision-making. This paper groups these barriers into opportunity, motivation, and capability, and reviews global evidence on interventions to address them. It assesses the effectiveness of these approaches, how descriptive representation (holding a leadership position) translates into substantive representation (influencing decisions), and unintended consequences. Quotas can increase women’s descriptive representation when well designed and enforced. Role model interventions may motivate participation, mainly in politics, though evidence is mixed elsewhere. Training, mentorship, and organizational reforms show context specific results, often supporting career progression rather than leadership attainment. Greater numerical representation does not always yield substantive influence. Outcomes depend on institutional context, gender norms, and complementary support. Advancing women’s leadership requires strategies that address multiple barriers and further research on how representation translates into real influence. |
| Keywords: | descriptive representation, gender, leadership, substantive representation, quotas |
| JEL: | J16 J24 D72 M14 |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18221 |
| By: | Bahn, Dorothée; Bredemeier, Christian; Juessen, Falko |
| Abstract: | We study how the division of household chores and individual preferences contribute to gender differences in labor supply elasticities and examine the implications for optimal taxation. In a model of labor supply in dual-earner households, we show that elasticities and optimal income tax rates depend jointly on gender and the within-household allocation of chores. Using PSID data, we find that chore division substantially affects labor supply elasticities, whereas gender per se plays a smaller role. We then evaluate how well simple, feasible tax rules can approximate the optimal within-household tax structure. Gender-based taxation captures a sizable share of the potential efficiency gains, but gender-neutral rules with realistic levels of progressivity perform better. |
| Abstract: | Wir untersuchen, wie die Aufteilung von Aufgaben im Haushalt sowie individuelle Präferenzen zu Geschlechterunterschieden in Arbeitsangebotselastizitäten beitragen und welche Konsequenzen sich daraus für die optimale Gestaltung der Einkommenssteuer ergeben. In einem Modell des Arbeitsangebots von Doppel-Verdiener-Paaren zeigen wir, dass Elastizitäten und optimale Einkommensteuersätze sowohl vom Geschlecht als auch von der innerfamiliären Aufgabenverteilung abhängen. Bei der Analyse von US-Mikrodaten aus dem PSID stellen wir fest, dass die innerfamiliäre Aufgabenverteilung Arbeitsangebotselastizitäten erheblich beeinflusst, während das Geschlecht an sich eine geringere Rolle spielt. Anschließend prüfen wir, inwieweit einfache und praktisch umsetzbare Steuerregeln die optimale innerfamiliäre Steuerstruktur approximieren können. Geschlechtsspezifische Besteuerung ("gender-based taxation") realisiert einen beträchtlichen Teil der potenziellen Effizienzgewinne, doch geschlechtsneutrale Regeln mit realistischen Progressivitätsgraden, aber ohne Splitting, schneiden besser ab. |
| Keywords: | Elasticity of labor supply, taxation, household chores, gender-based taxation |
| JEL: | J42 J16 J62 J71 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:rwirep:330181 |
| By: | Stark, Oded; Byra, Lukasz |
| Abstract: | In “Immigration, search and redistribution: A quantitative assessment of native welfare, ” a paper by Battisti et al. published in the August 2018 issue of the Journal of the European Economic Association, the authors inquire about how migration to 20 Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) countries affects the welfare of the countries’ native workers. In this paper, we raise several concerns regarding the analytical and the empirical parts of the Battisti et al.’s inquiry that bear on this effect. In particular, when Battisti et al. formulate a rule for the division between a worker and a firm of the surplus that arises from a firm-worker match, Battisti et al. neglect to take into account the fact that wages are taxed. When Battisti et al. formulate the GDP identity, the incorporation of capital is done incorrectly. Calibration of a corrected model undertaken in this paper reveals that these issues affect measurably the empirical results regarding the impacts on the welfare of native workers of skill-neutral migration and of migration by low-skill workers. An additional concern is that our calibration of a corrected model yields estimates of the tax rate on workers’ wages that are far too high to be considered feasible. This suggests to us that even when the model of Battisti et al. is corrected, a structural revision is deemed necessary in order to deliver a useful tool for measuring the effect of migration on the welfare of native workers in the 20 OECD countries. As a step in this direction, we calibrate a version of the corrected model, which involves “reasonable” tax rates on wages and a budget deficit. The results yielded by this counterfactual version lend support to the results of the corrected model regarding the negative impact of skill-neutral migration and of migration by low-skill workers on the welfare of native workers. |
| Keywords: | Migration to OECD countries, Welfare of native workers, Unemployment in a migration-destination country, Sharing rule of firm-worker match surplus when wages are taxed, GDP identity, Recalibration of labor market model, Skill-neutral migration, Migration by low-skill workers |
| JEL: | F22 I31 J64 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esprep:330239 |
| By: | Sachiko KAZEKAMI |
| Abstract: | This study investigates the impact of globalization on domestic urbanization and employment structures in the non-manufacturing sector. Despite its significance, this area has been understudied because of data limitations. Diverse transactions and expansion without capital investments make services difficult to capture in official statistics. However, services comprise 80% of employment in advanced economies. While data constraints remain, this study improves estimation precision by using firm-level data on overseas investments and actual domestic employment, rather than relying on proxy allocations based on regional employment shares. The analysis utilizes Japanese data from 2005 to 2020, examined by employment areas, and employs panel fixed-effects models with instrumental variables. In the information and communications industry, globalization is associated with an increase in employment, especially among female, college-educated, and regular employees, driven by inflows and increased labor participation, indicating job creation accompanied by a reallocation of human resources. Conversely, in the academic research and professional and technical services industry, foreign labor substitutes for domestic labor, resulting in lower wages. Meanwhile, the accommodation and food services sector saw employment growth but a decrease in wages, without labor migration. While the manufacturing sector showed few significant effects, beyond these examples, the non-manufacturing sector exhibited diverse spillover effects on employment, mobility, and wages. The pathways through which globalization affects regional communities—such as through the reallocation of human resources and changes in employment conditions—have not been fully captured by conventional manufacturing-focused perspectives. |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eti:dpaper:25099 |
| By: | Hall, Caroline (IFAU - Institute for Evaluation of Labour Market and Education Policy); Lindahl, Erica (IFAU - Institute for Evaluation of Labour Market and Education Policy); Rosenqvist, Olof (IFAU - Institute for Evaluation of Labour Market and Education Policy) |
| Abstract: | While all children in Sweden are entitled to free, universal preschool from age 3, enrollment rates for children with an immigrant background – and especially for those in newly-arrived families – remain well below the 95 percent national average. At the same time, studies suggest that these children have particularly high returns from preschool attendance. Thus, policies that increase preschool enrollment among children with an immigrant background have potential to improve long-term educational and labor market outcomes and narrow the gap to natives. We evaluate a reform in 2023 that required municipalities to offer preschool slots to 3–5-year-olds in newly-arrived immigrant families without the parents needing to apply – so-called automatic offers. Using a difference-in-differences specification, we compare next-year enrollment rates for currently non-enrolled children in newly-arrived families and other families and find that the policy substantially increased preschool enrollment. Our results suggest that administrative hurdles prevent some immigrant families from enrolling their children and that simplifying the application process is an effective policy tool for increasing preschool participation in this group. |
| Keywords: | preschool participation; foreign background; default enrollment |
| JEL: | I24 I28 |
| Date: | 2025–10–14 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:ifauwp:2025_018 |
| By: | Lukas Hack; Davud Rostam-Afschar |
| Abstract: | We examine how macroeconomic news affects firms’ extensive-margin price-setting plans in a survey that we rolled out with randomized daily invitations. These plans predict future realized inflation. Using a high-frequency event study framework, we find that inflation and employment surprises imply significant and sizable revisions in firms' pricing plans. There is a limited role for news about the trade balance, but no significant role for other commonly studied data releases, e.g., industrial production. We also study news coverage and agents' news search behavior, finding that the intensive-margin response of media coverage and news search may partly drive our main results. |
| Keywords: | daily data, firms, price-setting, macroeconomic data releases |
| JEL: | E30 E31 E32 C83 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12215 |
| By: | Ziwei Rao; Julia Hellstrand (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany); Mikko Myrskylä (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany) |
| Abstract: | Understanding how education policies influence fertility behavior may reveal how education can shape population trends. However, the long-term demographic effects of structural reforms, such as school tracking – separating students into vocational or academic paths – remain underexplored. This study uses Finnish population register data to evaluate the fertility responses to a Finnish comprehensive school reform implemented in the 1970s that offers a unique opportunity to study completed fertility over the entire lifespan. The reform replaced the existing two-track system with a uniform nine-year comprehensive school, thereby delaying the age at which pupils are selected into vocational and academic tracks. Adopting a difference-in-differences method that is robust to heterogeneous effect and multiple treatment timing, this study explores the time-varying dynamic impact of the reform. The findings indicate increased lifetime childlessness and delayed age at first birth. The reform was also associated with higher educational attainment and reduced prevalence of vocational tracks. Further analysis suggests that the greater childlessness and delayed childbearing were likely driven by weaker early-life labor market performance following non-vocational education. This paper contributes to the literature on the education-fertility nexus by showing that education policies that delay tracking age and reduce emphasis on vocational education may unexpectedly shape the fertility landscape. Keywords: fertility, education policy, educational tracking, early-life employment |
| Keywords: | educational policy, fertility |
| JEL: | J1 Z0 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2025-030 |
| By: | Dan Anderberg (Royal Holloway, University of London); Line Hjorth Andersen (Rockwool Foundation, Research Unit); N.Meltem Daysal (Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen); Mette Ejrnaes (Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen) |
| Abstract: | We examine the impact of a 2002 Danish parental leave reform on intimate partner violence (IPV) using administrative data on assault-related hospital contacts. Using a regression discontinuity design, we show that extending fully paid leave increased mothers leave-taking and substantially reduced IPV, with effects concentrated among less-educated women. The reform also lengthened birth spacing, while separations remained unchanged and earnings effects were modest. The timing and heterogeneity of impacts point to fertility adjustments rather than exit options or financial relief as the key mechanism. Parental leave policy thus emerges as an underexplored lever for reducing IPV. |
| Keywords: | Intimate partner violence, parental leave |
| JEL: | J12 I38 |
| Date: | 2025–10–24 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:kud:kucebi:2512 |
| By: | Joseph Kopecky (Department of Economics, Trinity College Dublin); Giacomo Mangiante (Bank of Italy) |
| Abstract: | How does the population age structure affect monetary policy? With advanced economies experiencing increased inflation risk and sluggish growth, it is more important than ever to understand how the monetary toolbox transmits to the outcomes that policymakers wish to affect. Studying a long run panel of countries, we identify the impact of changing population age structures on the effectiveness of monetary policy transmission to the economy. These shocks are identified using a recently proposed trilemma instrument for quasi-exogenous change in policy rates. On the one hand, we provide strong empirical evidence for a relationship between age structure and the transmission of interest rate shocks to CPI inflation, with young populations reducing this transmission, middle-aged ones reinforcing it, and older retirees strongly reducing it again. We observe the same pattern for nominal wages and real house prices. On the other hand, population aging is found to have transitory effects on the responsiveness of real aggregate variables such as, output, consumption, and investment with older populations delaying the impact of monetary policy. We find no impact on transmission to unemployment. These results have potentially important implications for the conduct of policy, particularly in the current environment where central bankers must frequently choose between their inflation and full employment targets. |
| Keywords: | Monetary Policy Transmission; Demographic Change |
| JEL: | E50 E52 J11 |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcd:tcduee:tep1725 |
| By: | Jessica L. Arnup (Australian National University, POLIS: Centre for Social Policy Research); Nicole Black (Monash University, Monash Business School, Centre for Health Economics); David W. Johnston (Monash University, Monash Business School, Centre for Health Economics) |
| Abstract: | Attention Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder (ADHD) is the most common mental health condition among children and adolescents, with diagnosis rates rising sharply over the past two decades. We examine the impact of adolescent ADHD on early adulthood outcomes using whole-of-population administrative data from Australia and two complementary identification strategies: sibling fixed effects and neighbour fixed effects. ADHD is identified through prescription records, capturing moderate-to-severe cases, and models account for a range of comorbid health conditions. Adolescents with ADHD are 12-16 percentage points less likely to be enrolled in tertiary education and 5-6 percentage points more likely to receive unemployment payments at age 20 compared to similar peers. These economic penalties are larger than those for other common conditions, including anxiety/mood and psychotic disorders. Relative reductions in tertiary enrolment are similar for males and females. Additional analyses show that comorbid mental health conditions do not meaningfully exacerbate the disadvantage associated with ADHD. Our findings highlight the substantial and enduring costs of ADHD for young people, even among those receiving treatment, and underscore the need for greater investment in school-based supports and transitional services. |
| Keywords: | ADHD, Education, Unemployment, Fixed Effects, Mental Health |
| JEL: | I2 I2 J6 |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mhe:chemon:2025-16 |