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on Labour Economics |
| By: | Muñoz, Ercio A. (Inter-American Development Bank); Sansone, Dario (University of Exeter); Tampellini, João (Vanderbilt University) |
| Abstract: | Using data from over 500, 000 dual-earner households in Mexico, we provide evidence of discontinuities in the distribution of relative income within households in Latin America. Similar to the situation in high-income countries, we observe a sharp drop at the 50% threshold, i.e., where the wife earns more than the husband, but the discontinuity is up to five times larger and has increased over time. These patterns are robust to the exclusion of equal earners, self-employed individuals, and couples in the same occupation/industry. Discontinuities persist across subgroups, including couples with or without children, those with married or unmarried partners, and those with older wives or female household heads. We also find comparable discontinuities in Brazil and Panama, as well as among some same-sex couples. Moreover, women who are primary earners continue to supply more nonmarket labor than do their male partners, although the gap is narrower than in households where the woman is the secondary earner. |
| Keywords: | Latin America, relative income, gender norms |
| JEL: | D13 D91 J12 J15 J16 O15 Z13 |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18172 |
| By: | Wongkot Similan Rujiwattanapong |
| Abstract: | Standard search theory predicts that (1) job search intensity increases with the relative gain from searching, and (2) job search intensity increases the job finding probability. Firstly, this paper presents new empirical findings that are at odds with these predictions when workers are categorised by their unemployment insurance (UI) history. UI recipients and former recipients search harder than those who never take up UI, yet they exhibit lower job-finding probabilities. Subsequently, I incorporate unproductive and inefficient job search, consistent with these empirical findings, into an otherwise standard stochastic equilibrium search-and-matching model with endogenous search intensity. Three key results emerge from these job search imperfections: (1) aggregate search intensity becomes acyclical leading to underestimated matching efficiency; (2) the general equilibrium effects of UI extensions and the labour market fluctuations are dampened; and (3) unemployment and its duration become more persistent. |
| Keywords: | Business cycles; Job search intensity; Matching efficiency; Unemployment insurance; Unemployment dynamics |
| JEL: | E24 E32 J24 J64 J65 |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pui:dpaper:240 |
| By: | Barreto, Cesar (OECD, Paris); Merkl, Christian (University of Erlangen-Nuremberg) |
| Abstract: | Our paper documents the importance of ex ante worker heterogeneity for labor market dynamics and for the composition of the unemployment pool over the business cycle. In recessions, the unemployment pool shifts toward workers with higher wages in their previous jobs. Based on administrative data for Germany and two-way worker and firm wage fixed effects, we show that this shift is mainly connected to worker heterogeneity, not to firm heterogeneity. We calibrate a search and matching model with ex ante worker heterogeneity to the estimated relative residual wage dispersion across worker fixed-effect groups. We show that a lower idiosyncratic match-specific shock dispersion for high-wage workers is key for the larger relative fluctuations of their separation rate as well as for the positive co-movement between prior wages and fixed effects of unemployed workers with aggregate unemployment. We argue that firm-based explanations, such as cyclical financial frictions, are unlikely to be key drivers for the documented empirical patterns. |
| Keywords: | labor market flows, separations, fixed effects, labor market dynamics |
| JEL: | E24 J16 J31 |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18162 |
| By: | Gan, Renren (Leiden University); Jongen, Egbert L. W. (Leiden University); Rabaté, Simon (French Institute of Demographic Studies (Ined)); Terpstra, Bo (Leiden University) |
| Abstract: | We study the evolution of the child penalty and gender-related inequality in the Netherlands. We use administrative panel data from 1989 to 2022 in an extension of the event study approach used in Kleven et al. (2019b). We document a substantial decline in child penalties (in earnings) for first-time mothers from 60% in the early 1990s to 35% in the 2010s. This decline is much larger than in the handful of other countries documented so far. However, looking at subperiods, we also find that the decline in the child penalty in the Netherlands has stalled in the mid 2000s, despite a steep rise in spending on formal childcare. Next, we decompose the gender-related inequality for parents into inequality related to children, education, migration background and a residual. We find that overall gender-related inequality and child-related gender inequality decline in parallel over time. The role of education and migration background is small and becomes less important over time. Hence, a substantial residual remains, and cannot be attributed to the aforementioned factors. We also show that the event-time window used is crucial for the contribution of the child penalty to the evolution of gender inequality. |
| Keywords: | gender-related inequality, child penalty, evolution |
| JEL: | D63 J13 J16 |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18158 |
| By: | David C. Macdonald; Jerry Montonen; Emily E. Nix |
| Abstract: | Romantic relationships in the workplace are common, but those between managers and subordinates have increasingly drawn scrutiny. Using administrative data on the universe of cohabiting couples in Finland, we examine the career implications of starting or ending a personal relationship with a workplace manager and the spillovers of these relationships on the broader workforce. An event study design reveals that entering a relationship with a manager increases the subordinate's earnings by 6%, but breaking up triggers an abrupt 18% earnings decline. We also find that these relationships generate spillovers: retention of other workers declines by six percentage points, with effects concentrated in workplaces where subordinates experience greater earnings gains. Our findings highlight both the private benefits and organizational costs of hierarchical workplace relationships. |
| JEL: | J12 J15 M12 M14 |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34346 |
| By: | Leila Agha; Na'ama Shenhav; Myles Wagner |
| Abstract: | Work disruptions among women are common and costly for workers and firms, but do consumers also shoulder some of these costs? We study the impact of physicians’ births—a large, temporary shock to women’s labor supply—on their patients’ access to care, using administrative Medicaid claims data from California. Female physicians reduce their office visits by 85% in the quarter after giving birth, but return nearly to pre-birth levels within two years. These supply disruptions generate persistent effects on child patients: those whose primary care physician gives birth are less likely to see their usual physician for up to two years and receive less preventative care, including a 50% reduction in vaccination claims and a 42% reduction in lead testing. In contrast, we find little impact on adult patients. The lasting effects on children coincide with fewer pediatrician encounters overall, consistent with limited availability of substitute providers and the central role of pediatricians in monitoring children’s preventative care. Our findings demonstrate how shocks to women’s labor supply can generate persistent consumer welfare losses. |
| JEL: | I10 I30 J16 |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34360 |
| By: | Simone Moriconi; Mikaël Pasternak; Ahmed Tritah; Nadiya Ukrayinchuk |
| Abstract: | We provide new evidence on intergenerational social mobility among immigrants and natives in France. Using linked parent–child data from censuses, we introduce an individual-level metric - the Intergenerational Rank Difference (IRD) - that measures upward and downward mobility relative to the highest-ranked parent across both education and predicted income. We document a robust mobility premium for second-generation immigrants: on average, they achieve a predicted income rank six percentiles higher than observationally equivalent natives, with the advantage most pronounced among women, children of two immigrant parents, and those from disadvantaged households. Educational gains explain part of this differential, but labor-market advancement plays the larger role. Internal migration emerges as an important channel, as immigrant movers disproportionately relocate to high-mobility areas. Finally, a spatial analysis highlights substantial heterogeneity: some local areas act as “lands of opportunity, ” while others are associated with stagnation or decline. These findings underscore the interplay of individual characteristics and local contexts in shaping long-run integration and suggest a role for place-aware policies to foster equality of opportunity. |
| Keywords: | migration economics, intergenerational social mobility, human capital |
| JEL: | J15 J24 J62 J71 I24 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12196 |
| By: | Judith Scott-Clayton; Veronica Minaya; C.J. Libassi; Joshua K.R. Thomas |
| Abstract: | Despite a large earnings premium for bachelor’s degree completion in general, graduates from low-income families earn substantially less than graduates from high-income families. While prior research has documented the role of college quality and major choice in explaining these gaps, we examine undermatching on a different margin: the first (post-college) job transition. The transition from college to the labor market can be challenging to navigate, and students with financial, informational, or other disadvantages during the job search may be more likely to “undermatch” to their first job. Using administrative data from a large, urban, public college system, we document large gaps in earnings five years after graduation by SES (proxied by financial aid receipt) that remain unexplained even after controlling for GPA, college, field of study, and other pre-graduation characteristics. We then examine how features of the initial job transition relate to longer-term earnings, and to what extent differences in the first job transition can explain later SES earnings gaps. Our results show that first job transitions are rocky for many graduates, strongly predict earnings at Year 5, and are a substantial mediator of socioeconomic gaps in earnings five years after college graduation—reducing the unexplained gap by almost two-thirds. |
| JEL: | I23 I24 J62 |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34366 |
| By: | Malik, Sara (University of Utah); Rabier, MaryJane (Washington University, St. Louis) |
| Abstract: | This study investigates the impact of state-level Worker Adjustment and Retraining Notification (WARN) Acts on advance notice and post-displacement labor market outcomes for U.S. workers from 1993 to 2019. State WARN adoption increases the likelihood of receiving 30+ days of notice by about 4 percentage points. Instrumental variables estimates, supplemented with local average response functions to address weak instruments, show that lengthy notice reduces immediate joblessness by 4 to 7 percentage points. The effects are most pronounced for low-skill workers. Longer term outcomes are less robust. The results indicate that enforceable mandates improve short run transitions, particularly for vulnerable workers. |
| Keywords: | advance notice, layoffs, WARN |
| JEL: | J63 J83 |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18166 |
| By: | Jirjahn, Uwe; Rienzo, Cinzia |
| Abstract: | Previous studies on working from home (WFH) and employee well-being have produced extremely conflicting results. We hypothesize that giving workers a choice over whether to use WFH plays a crucial role in the consequences for well-being. This perspective has a series of testable implications for empirical work. Using panel data from the United Kingdom, our fixed effects estimates show that not only the actual use, but also the pure availability of WFH is associated with improved job-related and overall mental health. Not controlling for the pure availability of WFH implies that the positive influence of the actual use of WFH is underestimated in the regressions. However, we find a positive association between the use of WFH and overall mental health only for the years before and after the pandemic. The association was negative during the COVID-19 crisis where WFH was largely enforced. Finally, gender moderates the influence of WFH on mental health. For women, both the actual use and the pure availability of WFH are positively associated job-related and overall mental health. For men, we find a more mixed pattern where either only the pure availability or only the actual use has an influence on mental health. This indicates that men are more likely to over- or underrate the consequences of WFH than women. |
| Keywords: | Remote Work, Freedom of Choice, Pandemic, Mental Well-Being, Gender |
| JEL: | I10 I31 J16 J22 M50 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:1675 |
| By: | Sebastian (Group for Research in Applied Economics (GRAPE)) |
| Abstract: | The paper studies the representation of women in top corporate positions and the workers’ share of firms’ income. Using a large panel of European firms and identification from a shift–share instrument, the author estimates the effect of gender board diversity on the labor share. In the preferred specification, a 10 percentage point increase in gender board diversity is associated with a 0.75 percentage point rise in the labor share. The effect is stronger in services, in smaller firms, and among firms with persistently low productivity. A counterfactual analysis demonstrates a high semi-elasticity of employment as the driving mechanism behind these findings. |
| Keywords: | gender board diversity, labor share, corporate governance, female leadership |
| JEL: | D33 G34 J16 J39 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fme:wpaper:109 |
| By: | Riddell, Chris (University of Waterloo); Riddell, W. Craig (University of British Columbia, Vancouver) |
| Abstract: | We re-assess the consequences of a NIT for two-parent families, utilizing hitherto untapped data. The Gary and Seattle experiments fail balancing tests. In New Jersey, Denver and Manitoba we estimate far greater labor supply responses than the current consensus, with remarkable consistency in point estimates and statistical significance across experiments, genders and countries. On the other hand, using newly collected data from archival records, we estimate substantial increases in happiness, marital satisfaction, household production, and social activities in Manitoba. We also reject the contentious finding that the NIT increased marital separations in Seattle-Denver, which is driven solely by Seattle. |
| Keywords: | household well-being, marital satisfaction, labour supply, income support, Negative Income Tax, basic income |
| JEL: | C93 I38 J12 J22 |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18174 |
| By: | Joan Monràs |
| Abstract: | Immigrants are not just workers, they are also consumers. Yet most of the literature studying immigration has focused on the former. This paper uses detailed Spanish consumption survey data to characterize how immigrant consumption differs from that of natives. Immigrants are much more likely to rent than native households, even when controlling for many observable characteristics. Decompositions of the differences in consumption patterns between immigrants and natives show that most of the differences cannot be accounted for standard socio-economic characteristics like income, household size, and geography. Variation from the amnesty program implemented in Spain in 2005 suggests that a small part of the differences in housing tenure status depend on the fact that many immigrants lack work permits, and potentially, formal access to mortgage credit. |
| Keywords: | amnesty, assimilation, housing markets, Immigrant consumption |
| JEL: | J61 D12 |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bge:wpaper:1517 |
| By: | Danqing Chen; Carina Kane; Austin Kozlowski; Nadav Kunievsky; James A. Evans |
| Abstract: | Large Language Models have spread rapidly since the release of ChatGPT in late 2022, accompanied by claims of major productivity gains but also concerns about job displacement. This paper examines the short-run labor market effects of LLM adoption by comparing earnings and unemployment across occupations with differing levels of exposure to these technologies. Using a Synthetic Difference in Differences approach, we estimate the impact of LLM exposure on earnings and unemployment. Our findings show that workers in highly exposed occupations experienced earnings increases following ChatGPT's introduction, while unemployment rates remained unchanged. These results suggest that initial labor market adjustments to LLMs operate primarily through earnings rather than worker reallocation. |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2509.15510 |
| By: | Blanden, Jo (University of Surrey); Cassagneau-Francis, Oliver (University College London); Macmillan, Lindsey (University College London); Wyness, Gill (University College London) |
| Abstract: | Inequality in college attendance is a key driver of intergenerational mobility. We focus upstream to examine how elite high-schools – specifically UK private (feepaying) schools – shape university destinations across the achievement distribution. Using linked-administrative data, we show the main advantage conferred by private schools is not access to elite colleges for their best students, but that lower-achieving students are more likely to ‘overmatch’: lower-achieving pupils from private schools enrol in university courses around 15 percentiles higher ranked than similarly qualified state-school students. Examining mechanisms, we show that this overmatch is driven largely by differences in application behaviour. |
| Keywords: | mismatch, college choice, educational economics, higher education, private schools |
| JEL: | I22 I23 I28 |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18171 |
| By: | Tsung-Chih Lai; Jia-Han Shih; Yi-Hau Chen |
| Abstract: | We introduce the upward rank mobility curve as a new measure of intergenerational mobility that captures upward movements across the entire parental income distribution. Our approach extends Bhattacharya and Mazumder (2011) by conditioning on a single parental income rank, thereby eliminating aggregation bias. We show that the measure can be characterized solely by the copula of parent and child income, and we propose a nonparametric copula-based estimator with better properties than kernel-based alternatives. For a conditional version of the measure without such a representation, we develop a two-step semiparametric estimator based on distribution regression and establish its asymptotic properties. An application to U.S. data reveals that whites exhibit significant upward mobility dominance over blacks among lower-middle-income families. |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2509.23174 |
| By: | Benedict Clements (Universidad de las Américas in Ecuador); Huy Nguyen (International Monetary Fund); Ratna Sahay (National Council of Applied Economic Research); Mehak Jain (National Council of Applied Economic Research) |
| Abstract: | This paper assesses the impact of women's participation in national governments (as parliamentarians and ministers) on social spending and outcomes in emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs). We find that the representation of women in politics has increased over time, with substantial variation across regions and countries. Latin America and the Caribbean lead among EMDE regions, while Middle East and Central Asia and Emerging and Developing Asia have lower female representation. The higher shares of women in parliaments and cabinet positions go hand-in-hand with increased government health spending, both as a share of GDP and total spending. The results on education outlays are broadly similar. Greater representation of women in policymaking is also associated with positive effects on social outcomes, such as a reduction in infant and under-five mortality rates, greater access to basic water services, and higher learning-adjusted years of schooling. The case studies presented in the paper highlight the importance of identifying national priorities on health and education and increasing the share of female political leaders (including through quotas where gender biases are entrenched). |
| Keywords: | women in parliament; women in cabinets; social spending; health outcomes; education outcomes |
| JEL: | H51 H52 I00 J16 |
| Date: | 2025–10–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nca:ncaerw:187 |
| By: | Erick Rangel; Marco A. Esteban Aguirre; Irving Llamosas-Rosas |
| Abstract: | We apply the synthetic control method to analyze the initial effects of nearshoring on labor outcomes in Mexico's manufacturing sector from July 2020 to June 2023. Our methodology compares jobs, earnings, and productivity among industry groups more likely to be affected by nearshoring, as identified through a propensity index, with a counterfactual constructed from less likely affected industries. Our results indicate that nearshoring is potentially generating early gains in manufacturing jobs but has not led to improvements in earnings. Furthermore, we do not observe a consistent impact on productivity, although some specifications suggest a modest positive effect in industries with a higher nearshoring propensity. While nearshoring effects may take longer to materialize, our findings highlight its initial implications for the Mexican manufacturing sector. |
| Keywords: | Nearshoring;Manufacturing Sector;Jobs;Earnings;Productivity |
| JEL: | J01 J40 F61 |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdm:wpaper:2025-16 |
| By: | Etienne Bacher; Michel Beine; Hillel Rapoport |
| Abstract: | We investigate the effect of anti-immigration attitudes on immigration plans to Europe. We propose a new instrument for attitudes toward immigration, namely, the number of country nationals killed in terrorist attacks taking place outside of Europe. Our first-stage results confirm that such terrorist attacks increase negative attitudes to immigration in the origin country of the victims. Our second-stage results then show that this higher hostility toward migrants decreases the attractiveness of the country for prospective immigrants. |
| Keywords: | Immigration;Terrorism;Anti-immigration attitudes;Europe |
| JEL: | C1 F2 J1 |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cii:cepidt:2025-13 |
| By: | Caroline Gaudreau; Dani Levine; John A. List; Dana Suskind |
| Abstract: | Research shows responsive caregiving enhances children's brain development, with parental knowledge predicting positive behaviors and outcomes. However, knowledge varies widely across educational levels, highlighting the need for targeted interventions. Despite evidence that this knowledge can be improved, no comprehensive metric exists for efficient assessment. We introduce SPEAK (Survey of Parent/Provider Expectations and Knowledge), a computer-adaptive tool grounded in item-response theory that we created, to address this gap by measuring parental and educator knowledge across development domains with precision and speed. This paper details SPEAK's development, including domain construction, cognitive interviewing, expert review, psychometric calibration, and validity evidence. SPEAK offers a flexible, scalable solution for clinical, educational, research, and policy settings. By identifying knowledge gaps, it enables tailored interventions, supports professional development, and informs policy, ultimately improving parent-child interactions and child outcomes. Our tool bridges critical gaps in assessing child development knowledge, advancing research and cross-sector collaboration to promote early childhood development worldwide. |
| JEL: | C81 C90 C93 I12 I18 I21 J13 O15 |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34349 |
| By: | Oliver Cassagneau-Francis (UCL Centre for Education Policy and Equalising Opportunities); Lindsey Macmillan (UCL Centre for Education Policy and Equalising Opportunities); Richard Murphy (Department of Economics, University of Texas at Austin); Gill Wyness (UCL Centre for Education Policy and Equalising Opportunities) |
| Abstract: | We propose a new approach to test for systematic biases in teacher evaluations. We exploit a setting where teachers were required to assign students both grades and rankings within each grade. Comparing students immediately adjacent to grade boundaries, we apply a local randomization approach to estimate imbalance in student characteristics. Our findings reveal systematic bias favoring higher income and female students. These grading decisions carry real consequences: students just above the grade threshold are significantly more likely to attend university. Our approach can be applied whenever there is a system with many thresholds and subjective rankings. |
| Keywords: | Teacher bias; Gender; Stereotypes; Proportions; Test Optional |
| JEL: | C10 C25 I23 I24 J15 |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ucl:cepeow:25-12 |
| By: | Brändle, Thomas; Colombier, Carsten; Lerch, Benjamin |
| Abstract: | Healthcare expenditure growth is a key economic policy issue threatening the sustainability of public finances in advanced economies. This paper examines the determinants of healthcare expenditure in Switzerland using a time-series analysis for the period 1960-2022. Applying a dynamic OLS and an outlier-robust modified generalized maximum likelihood (MM) estimation approach, we find that income growth, population ageing, and Baumol’s cost disease have all contributed to increasing total and public healthcare expenditure. The analysis suggests an income elasticity between 0.9 and 1.3, accounting for roughly half of the secular increase in healthcare expenditure. Our estimations also suggest a decrease in income elasticity over time. We find that population ageing has contributed by around 15% to the growth in healthcare expenditure. Income growth, demographic shifts, medical progress, slow productivity growth and labor shortages in healthcare are poised to intensify spending pressures in the years ahead, with implications both for total and public healthcare expenditure. Our results substantiate the policy debate on the determinants of healthcare expenditure, provide a tailored evidence basis for the healthcare expenditure projection framework for Switzerland and underscore the need for comprehensive reforms in the health sector to contain expenditure growth. |
| Keywords: | Health expenditure, public finances, income elasticity, population ageing, Baumol’s cost disease |
| JEL: | H51 I18 J11 C22 |
| Date: | 2025–06–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bsl:wpaper:2025/06 |