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on Labour Economics |
| By: | Hanming Fang; Jiayin Hu; Miao Yu |
| Abstract: | We investigate the unintended consequences of maternity leave extension on gender gaps in the labor market. Using millions of job applications on an online job platform and the staggered extension of maternity leave across Chinese provinces, we find that an average increase (22%) in the length of paid maternity leave led to a 3.7 percentage point decrease in positive callbacks to female applicants relative to their male counterparts. In response, female job seekers submitted 4.4 more job applications, shifted toward jobs with 5.4% lower wages, and experienced 0.9 weeks longer job search duration than male applicants. We also find that government subsidies that partially cover firms' wage costs of extended maternity leave help alleviate its adverse impact on gender disparities in hiring. |
| JEL: | J16 J18 J23 J64 J71 |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34304 |
| By: | César Barreto; Christian Merkl |
| Abstract: | Our paper documents the importance of ex ante worker heterogeneity for labor market dynamics and for the composition of the unemployment pool over the business cycle. In recessions, the unemployment pool shifts toward workers with higher wages in their previous jobs. Based on administrative data for Germany and two-way worker and firm wage fixed effects, we show that this shift is mainly connected to worker heterogeneity, not to firm heterogeneity. We calibrate a search and matching model with ex ante worker heterogeneity to the estimated relative residual wage dispersion across worker fixed-effect groups. We show that a lower idiosyncratic match-specific shock dispersion for high-wage workers is key for the larger relative fluctuations of their separation rate as well as for the positive comovement between prior wages and fixed effects of unemployed workers with aggregate unemployment. We argue that firm-based explanations, such as cyclical financial frictions, are unlikely to be key drivers for the documented empirical patterns. |
| Keywords: | labor market flows, separations, fixed effects, labor market dynamics |
| JEL: | E24 J16 J31 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12165 |
| By: | Natalia Bermudez-Barrezueta (UNIVERSITE CATHOLIQUE DE LOUVAIN, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES)); Bart Cockx (Department of Economics, Ghent University, Belgium. IRES/LIDAM, UCLouvain, Belgium. IZA, Bonn, Germany. CESifo, Munich, Germany. ROA, Maastricht University); Gert Bijnens (Economics and Research Department, National Bank of Belgium) |
| Abstract: | We evaluate the effectiveness of Belgium’s short-time work (STW) program during the Great Recession, a period when the country recorded the highest STW take-up rate in Europe. STW allows firms to reduce working hours in response to temporary shocks while avoiding layoffs, playing a key role in European labor market insurance systems. Using an instrumental variable strategy that exploits quasi-exogenous variation stemming from an institutional feature of the Belgian program, we estimate the causal effects of STW on employment and wages. We find that, while STW significantly reduces the volume of work per worker, it does not lead to statistically significant employment gains for the average treated firm. Importantly, positive employment effects are concentrated among small manufacturing firms, which are more likely to face binding liquidity constraints. These findings highlight the importance of targeting and screening in improving the cost-effectiveness of STW programs and minimizing deadweight losses. |
| Keywords: | Short-time work; employment; wages; unemployment insurance |
| JEL: | E24 J22 J23 J63 J65 |
| Date: | 2025–07–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ctl:louvir:2025014 |
| By: | Lee, Jong-Wha; SONG, Eunbi |
| Abstract: | This study examines the factors underlying the sharp decline in marriage and fertility rates by integrating microdata analysis with a structural macroeconomic model. Drawing on 25 years of individual-level panel data from the Korean Labor and Income Panel Study, it employs discrete-time survival models to examine how individual and regional factors influence the incidence of first marriage and childbirth. The findings show that rising educational and marriage-related expenses significantly reduce the likelihood of marriage, whereas increased female labor force participation and escalating child education costs are associated with lower probabilities of childbirth. These empirical patterns motivate a dynamic overlapping-generations model with endogenous family formation, human capital investment, and intra-household bargaining. The model incorporates gender-based differences in partner matching and household labor, which influence time allocation and marriage utility, particularly for college- educated women. Simulation results indicate that rising marriage and child-rearing costs have been the primary drivers of declining family formation since 1990, while increases in women's education have played a modest role. The findings further suggest that a package of targeted policies--such as childcare and education support, marriage-cost subsidies, and gender-equalizing reforms in households and the labor market--could raise the fertility rate from 0.75 to around 1.2, a level comparable to that of other low-fertility advanced countries. |
| Keywords: | growth, fertility, gender equality, human capital accumulation, marriage, Korea |
| JEL: | E24 J11 J12 J13 J71 O53 |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:agi:wpaper:02000249 |
| By: | Magdalena Smyk (Group for Research in Applied Economics (GRAPE); Warsaw School of Economics) |
| Abstract: | Using data from the American Time Use Survey and hurdle regression models, this study examines how the gender composition of occupations relates to time spent on housework and childcare. We find that women in male-dominated occupations spend more time on housework than those in female-dominated or gender-neutral fields, suggesting that breaking occupational norms in the labor market does not necessarily translate into less traditional domestic roles. Such mothers are less likely to engage in childcare, although when involved spent the same amount of time on childcare and quality time, and higher earnings are associated with more time spent with children. For men, the patterns differ: fathers in gender-neutral or female-dominated occupations are more likely to participate in childcare and devote more time to it, while those in male-dominated jobs are more likely to report no childcare at all. Increased paternal childcare does not coincide with more housework, indicating a selective reallocation of time. The findings highlight the need for policies that address both occupational segregation and the domestic division of labor to promote gender equality at work and at home. |
| Keywords: | unpaid work, childcare, gender occupational segregation |
| JEL: | J16 J22 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fme:wpaper:108 |
| By: | Giuselle Pio Dachille (INPS, Rome); Maria De Paola (University of Calabria, INPS Direzione Centrale Studi e Ricerche, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA)); Roberto Nisticò (University of Naples Federico II, Department of Economics and Statistics, and CSEF) |
| Abstract: | We study the fertility effects of Italy’s Reddito di Cittadinanza (RdC), a national minimum income program introduced in 2019. Exploiting administrative data from the Italian Social Security Institute and a Fuzzy Regression Discontinuity Design, we document that RdC increased recipients’ childbirth probability by 1.5 percentage points (18%) over two years in the South, with no effect in the Centre-North. Labor supply declined by 10%, but only in the Centre-North. Regional heterogeneity reflects differences in gender norms, financial constraints, and opportunity costs of child bearing. Our findings highlight how income transfers interact with local context to shape demographic and labor market behavior. |
| Keywords: | Fertility; Guaranteed Minimum Income; RDD |
| JEL: | H53 J13 C21 |
| Date: | 2025–09–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sef:csefwp:757 |
| By: | Ciaschi, Matías; Marchionni, Mariana; Neidhöfer, Guido |
| Abstract: | We assess intergenerational mobility in terms of education and income rank in five Latin American countries - Brazil, Chile, Ecuador, Mexico, and Panama - by accounting for the education and occupation of both parents. Based on the Lubotsky and Wittenberg (2006) approach, we find that intergenerational persistence estimates increase by 26% to 50% when parents' occupations are considered alongside their education to proxy family socioeconomic background. The increase is particularly strong when education is more evenly distributed in the parents' generation. Furthermore, we assess how the informativeness of each proxy for parental background evolves across countries and over time, and find that maternal characteristics have become increasingly informative in recent decades, in line with rising women's educational attainment and labor force participation. Interesting heterogeneities across countries and cohorts are observed. |
| Keywords: | Intergenerational Mobility, Education, Occupation, Mothers, Latin America |
| JEL: | D63 J62 O15 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:zewdip:327110 |
| By: | Andrew Caplin; Søren Leth-Petersen; Christopher Tonetti |
| Abstract: | When women plan for life after childbirth, they form beliefs about work, childcare, and how their careers will unfold. These expectations shape key decisions but are formed under deep uncertainty. We use a 2019 state-contingent survey of 11, 000 Danish women linked to administrative data to compare pre-birth beliefs to realized outcomes. Mothers accurately anticipate their eventual return to work but underestimate the duration of the career interruption. This miscalibration stems from two belief errors—about partner leave and own labor supply—which interact and persist even among second-time mothers, with implications for labor supply, planning, and policy design. |
| JEL: | D84 E24 J13 J22 |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34289 |
| By: | Anushka Mitra |
| Abstract: | The unemployment rate remains elevated long after recessions, a persistence that standard search-and-matching models cannot explain. I show that noise shocks—expectational errors due to the noise in received signals about aggregate shocks—account for much of this sluggishness. Using a structural VAR, I find that absent noise shocks unemployment would have recovered to its pre-recession level six quarters earlier over 1968–2019. To interpret this evidence, I develop a search-and-matching model with on-the-job search, endogenous search effort, and wage rigidity. Embedding imperfect information generates two channels of persistence: slow learning amplifies the effects of persistent productivity shocks, and noise shocks provide an additional source of sluggishness, further magnified by sticky wages and vacancy posting. The model successfully replicates both the slow recovery of unemployment and systematic forecast errors, highlighting imperfect information as a key mechanism behind post-recession labor market dynamics. |
| Keywords: | Imperfect Information; Labor Market; Business Cycles |
| JEL: | E24 E32 E70 |
| Date: | 2025–09–25 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedgif:1423 |
| By: | Benjamin Bittschi (WIFO); Rainer Eppel (WIFO); Ulrike Famira-Mühlberger (WIFO); Helmut Mahringer (WIFO); Christine Zulehner |
| Abstract: | This paper combines a counterfactual impact analysis using rich administrative data with a participant survey to assess the long-term labour market effects of Austria's large-scale educational leave programme. The scheme allows eligible employees to take full- or part-time leave for further education, supported by income-compensating benefits. We find that participation substantially increases monthly earnings but does not improve employment probability. Full-time leave reduces employment in the short term and modestly in the long term, offsetting wage gains and resulting in no increase in cumulative earnings. Part-time leave yields even larger monthly wage increases and clear cumulative earnings gains, with no significant employment effects. |
| Keywords: | Educational leave, continuing education, labour-market outcomes |
| Date: | 2025–09–24 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wfo:wpaper:y:2025:i:712 |
| By: | Nicolás Forteza (BANCO DE ESPAÑA); Sergio Puente (BANCO DE ESPAÑA) |
| Abstract: | Studying the labor market attachment (LMA) for the non-working population is crucial for several economic outcomes, such as real wages or long-term non-employment. Official statistics rely on self-reported variables and rule-based procedures to assign the labor market status of an individual. However, this classification does not take into account other individual-level characteristics, like variables related to reservation wages or the amount and type of job offers received, implying that estimates of non-worker status could be biased. In this paper, we propose a novel methodology to measure non-workers’ LMA. Using the Spanish Labor Force Survey (LFS), we define two groups (attached vs. non-attached), and estimate a probability distribution for each individual of belonging to such groups. To recover these probability distributions, we rely on unsupervised and supervised machine learning algorithms. We describe the differences between LFS unemployment, other measures of attachment in the literature, and our non-worker classification. We identify the instances in which our proposed methodology has a tighter relationship with measures like salaries, GDP and employment flows. |
| Keywords: | labor market attachment, unemployment, labor force |
| JEL: | J21 J82 |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bde:wpaper:2534 |
| By: | Rainer Kotschy; Uwe Sunde |
| Abstract: | Men and women differ systematically in measures of patience, risk-taking, trust, and prosociality. While literature documents such gender gaps in numerous countries throughout the world, recent work suggests an association between these gender gaps and economic development, based on evidence of larger gender gaps in Western, educated, industrialized, rich, and democratic societies. However, little is known about how these gender gaps evolve and whether they indeed widen as countries develop. To examine this question, we analyze how within-country gender gaps in patience, risk-taking, trust, and prosociality have evolved across birth cohorts worldwide. We compare these gender gaps across country-period-cohort cells using two survey data sets that cover 460, 000 people in more than 100 countries. Our results document that gender gaps in patience, risk-taking, trust, and prosociality have declined across birth cohorts. This evidence rejects the notion that these gender gaps widen as countries develop and instead points to a decline in socioeconomic differences between men and women. |
| Keywords: | preferences, personality traits, gender gaps, cohort trends |
| JEL: | D01 J10 J11 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12173 |
| By: | Bauer, Bernhard (Center for Responsible AI Technologies, and University of Augsburg, & Germany); Mühlbauer, Sabrina (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany); Schlögl-Flierl, Kerstin (Center for Responsible AI Technologies, and University of Augsburg, & Germany); Weber, Enzo (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany ; University of Regensburg); Ziethmann, Paula Franziska (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany) |
| Abstract: | "This article addresses the ethical design of artificial intelligence (AI) in the public sector, with a particular focus on Public Employment Services (PES). While AI is increasingly employed to streamline administrative processes and improve service delivery, its application in employment mediation raises fundamental concerns regarding fairness, accountability, and democratic legitimacy. The EU Artificial Intelligence Act has further underscored the urgency of addressing these challenges by classifying employment-related AI systems as high-risk, thereby mandating robust safeguards to prevent discrimination and ensure transparency. The central aim of this study is to examine how ethical and social considerations can be systematically embedded in the development and implementation of public sector AI. Using the German PES as a case study, we introduce the “Embedded Ethics and Social Sciences” approach (EE), which integrates ethical reflection and practitioner involvement from the outset. Qualitative insights from interviews with caseworkers highlight the socio-technical challenges of implementation, particularly the need to reconcile efficiency with citizen trust. Building on these insights, we propose concrete design elements emerging from the integration of ethical and social considerations into system development. In this context, we discuss issues of data ethics and bias, fairness, and the role of explainable AI (XAI). Our analysis demonstrates that this framework not only supports compliance with new regulatory requirements but also strengthens human oversight and agency, and shared decision-making. More broadly, the findings suggest that ethically grounded design can enhance fairness, transparency, and legitimacy across diverse domains of public administration, thereby contributing to more accountable and citizen-centered governance in the digital era." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en)) |
| Keywords: | IAB-Open-Access-Publikation |
| JEL: | C49 J14 J16 J64 J71 |
| Date: | 2025–10–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iab:iabdpa:202512 |
| By: | Wobbe, Clara; Blesse, Sebastian; Diegmann, André; Hessami, Zohal |
| JEL: | D72 D78 F22 H72 J15 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:vfsc25:325385 |
| By: | Abeeb Olaniran (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria, Private Bag X20, Hatfield 0028, South Africa); Xin Sheng (Lord Ashcroft International Business School, Anglia Ruskin University, Chelmsford, United Kingdom); Oguzhan Cepni (Ostim Technical University, Ankara, Turkiye; University of Edinburgh Business School, Centre for Business, Climate Change, and Sustainability; Department of Economics, Copenhagen Business School, Denmark); Rangan Gupta (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria, Private Bag X20, Hatfield 0028, South Africa) |
| Abstract: | Using a US state-level climate risk measure and the local projections (LP) framework, this study analyzes both linear and asymmetric effects of climate shocks on unemployment claims. The results provide strong evidence that climate shocks significantly increase both initial and continuing claims, with the linear estimates showing a stronger impact on initial claims. In the nonlinear framework, where climate risk and economic condition indices are used as regime-switching variables, we also find asymmetric effects of climate shocks across both types of claims. Specifically, climate shocks exert stronger pressure on initial claims under high-climate-risk regimes, while continuing claims respond more under low-risk regimes. When the economic condition index is applied as a regime-dependent variable, climate shocks are more influential during expansions than during recessions, when claims are already elevated and labor markets are slack. Overall, the findings highlight that climate shocks affect labor markets in complex, state-dependent ways, offering valuable insights for policymakers aiming to design effective mitigation strategies and enhance labor market resilience. |
| Keywords: | Climate shocks, Linear and Non-Linear frameworks, Unemployment |
| JEL: | C23 E24 Q54 |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pre:wpaper:202536 |
| By: | Michel Bierlaire (TRANSP-OR, EPFL); Vincent Dautel (LM, LISER); Frédéric Docquier (UDM, LISER); Silvia Peracchi (UNIVERSITE CATHOLIQUE DE LOUVAIN, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES)) |
| Abstract: | This study examines the influence of agglomeration and deglomeration forces on residence-workplace location choices across skill groups. Contrary to the standard approach in economic geography, the focus on skills rather than people is particularly relevant in knowledge-based economies, where core-periphery dynamics are driven by skill disparities. Our case study examines the mobility of French-born workers within the Greater Region surrounding Luxembourg. Between 2005 and 2019, an estimated 38, 445 additional workers aged 20-59 joined the Luxembourg economy, of which 25, 801 were highly educated. We examine how wage differentials and housing costs, among other factors, have influenced migration and commuting patterns across skill groups. Our results show that while higher housing costs in core areas create deglomerative effects for low- and medium-skilled workers, high-skilled workers are more responsive to wage differentials and remain undeterred by rising housing prices. These forces alone have increased the number of tertiary-educated movers by 8, 619 between 2005 and 2019, compared to 3, 091 medium-skilled and 543 low-skilled. They substantially contributed to the doubling of the ”brain drain“ from the periphery to the core (from 12 to 24%) and to the widening of regional skill differentials. Overall, these findings underscore the need to look beyond people and consider skill differentials when modeling core-periphery dynamics or formulating policies to promote inclusive regional development. |
| Keywords: | Regional mobility, Human capital, Core-periphery dynamics |
| JEL: | R23 J61 R12 |
| Date: | 2025–09–23 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ctl:louvir:2025015 |
| By: | Möhlmann, Axel; Vogel, Edgar |
| JEL: | D14 G28 G21 G33 G51 J63 L85 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:vfsc25:325418 |
| By: | Freitas, Dimitria |
| Abstract: | Regional economic disparities within countries have become increasingly large, often surpassing the disparities observed between countries. To address regional inequality, governments have been turning away from standard subsidies and are experimenting with public employment reallocation as a place-based policy. This paper estimates the causal effect of public employment reallocation on local labor markets. I study the 'Heimatstrategie, ' which relocates around 3, 000 public sector jobs from Munich to economically lagging regions in Bavaria, Germany. Using novel data on 60 agency relocations between 2015 and 2025, I exploit the government's quantitative selection criteria for receiving municipalities and implement a long-differences design comparing treated Bavarian municipalities to Mahalanobis-matched control municipalities in other German states. My estimates show that relocations increased private sector employment shares by up to 2.3%, reduced unemployment rates by up to 11.9%, and increased local population by up to 1.6% without harming sending locations. These results correspond to a public-to-private jobs multiplier of 1.08. To assess general equilibrium effects the relocation program, I implement a quantitative spatial model with a two-sector (public and private) framework showing modest increases in amenities through the relocation counterfactual and negligible welfare effects. |
| JEL: | J21 J45 J68 R23 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:vfsc25:325457 |
| By: | AlBader, Suleiman H.; AlSabah, Khaled W. |
| Abstract: | Residential real estate prices in Kuwait have risen well beyond the reach of the average Kuwaiti household, with homes trading at more than 22 times the typical annual income, placing Kuwait among the most unaffordable markets globally. This study examines the relationship between housing prices and the waitlist for government-provided homes administered by the Public Authority for Housing and Welfare (PAHW). We find that growth in the PAHW waitlist is positively associated with nationwide price increases, even after accounting for changes in wages, credit availability, and interest rates. Specifically, an increase of 6, 134 applicants to the waitlist – the same seen in 2024 – is associated with a 2.7% rise in residential real estate prices, holding other factors constant. The association varies by city and appears to be asymmetric: prices tend to rise more sharply during periods of weak reductions in PAHW waitlist and tend to stabilise or decline in periods when PAHW actively reduces its applicant waitlist, especially in mid-priced areas. These findings highlight the potential for housing policy performance to shape affordability outcomes across different segments of the market. |
| JEL: | R14 J01 |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:129678 |
| By: | James J. Heckman; Jin Zhou |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the weekly evolution of skills as measured by unique data from a widely-emulated early childhood home-visiting program in rural China. The design of the study avoids input endogeneity issues and lack of comparable measures of skills that plague previous studies. Skills, nominally classified as the same, in fact, do not appear to share a common unit scale across levels. They are produced by skill-lifecycle-stage-specific learning processes. A novel dynamic stochastic skill production model for multiple skills is developed, aligning with empirical evidence. The model explains the “fadeout” of measures of learning through forgetting or depreciation of skills. |
| JEL: | C5 C9 D2 I30 J1 O12 |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34294 |