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on Labour Economics |
| By: | Derenoncourt, Ellora (Princeton University); Gerard, Francois (Queen Mary, University of London); Lagos, Lorenzo (Brown University); Montialoux, Claire (UC Berkeley) |
| Abstract: | We study the role of union heterogeneity in shaping wages and inequality among unionized workers. Using linked employer-employee data from Brazil and job moves across multi-firm unions, we estimate over 4, 800 union-specific pay premia. Unions explain 3–4% of earnings variation. While unions raise wages on average, the standard deviation in union effects is large (6-7%). Validating our approach, wages fall in markets with higher vs. lower union premia following a nationwide right-to-work law. Linking premia to detailed data on union attributes, we find that unions with strike activity, collective bargaining agreements, internal competition, and skilled leaders secure higher wages. High-premium unions compress wage gaps by education while the average union exacerbates them. Post right-to-work, however, worker support for high-premium unions falls when between-group bargaining differentials are large. Our findings show that unions are not a monolith—their structure and actions shape their wage effects and, consequently, worker support. |
| Keywords: | wage inequality, pay premia, unions, right-to-work |
| Date: | 2025–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18065 |
| By: | Lafleur, Jean-Michel; Marfouk, Abdeslam |
| Abstract: | Using an experimental design embedded within a nationally representative survey implemented in Algeria, this study seeks to evaluate the effect that information campaigns have on willingness of individuals residing in the Global South to engage in unauthorized migration to Europe. In particular, in line with the discursive priorities of policy-makers focused on deterrence of irregular migration, we examine the impact of messages on the "risks and dangers associated with illegal migration", "anti-migrants walls and other fences", "undocumented immigrants regularization programs" and "access to welfare". Using an experiment embedded within a national survey implemented in Algeria, we did not find any statistically significant effect of information provision on those issues on the willingness of individuals to engage in irregular migration to Europe. These results question the efficiency and legitimacy of the existing approach to migration-information campaign. They also dispute the frequently used argument in policy debates that regularization programs and immigrants' access to welfare trigger undocumented migration. |
| Keywords: | International Migration, Migration-Information Campaigns, Survey Experiments, Undocumented Migration |
| JEL: | C99 F22 J61 J68 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:1655 |
| By: | Manuel Garcia Dellacasa (Department of Economics, SOAS University of London. Russell Square, London WC1H 0XG, UK) |
| Abstract: | Occupational segregation by sex is a persistent driver of labor market inequality, particularly in its horizontal form—the concentration of men and women in different sectors. This paper develops a structural account grounded in urban feminist political economy, emphasizing how segregation is sustained by the interaction of gendered mobility constraints and the uneven geography of economic activity. Using Santiago de Chile as a case study, we integrate georeferenced 2017 census data, commuting patterns, and satellite nightlight imagery to operationalize local labor market intensity and residential marginalization. We test two hypotheses—(H1) that segregation declines with economic activity, and (H2) that it rises with residential marginalization—using a suite of econometric methods, including OLS, spatial error models, and instrumental variables leveraging the historical incorporation of urban tracts. We further validate results through robustness checks and policy simulations that relocate social housing into advantaged areas. Our findings show that economic activity reduces segregation, while marginalization amplifies it; simulated housing integration policies yield effects comparable to decades of educational expansion. These results highlight the value of urban policy as a tool for advancing gender equity in labor markets. |
| Keywords: | Occupational Segregation, Gender Inequality, Urban, Labor Markets, Uneven Geography |
| JEL: | J16 R23 |
| Date: | 2025–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:soa:wpaper:269 |
| By: | Ercio Mu\~noz; Dario Sansone; Jo\~ao Tampellini |
| Abstract: | Using data from over 500, 000 dual-earner households in Mexico, we provide evidence of discontinuities in the distribution of relative income within households in Latin America. Similar to high-income countries, we observe a sharp drop at the 50% threshold, where the wife earns more than the husband, but the discontinuity is up to five times larger and has increased over time. These patterns are robust to excluding equal earners, self-employed individuals, or couples in the same occupation/industry. Discontinuities persist across subgroups, including couples with or without children, married or unmarried partners, and those with older wives or female household heads. We also find comparable discontinuities in Brazil and Panama, as well as among some same-sex couples. Moreover, women who are primary earners continue to supply more non-market labor than their male partners, although the gap is narrower than in households where the woman is the secondary earner. |
| Date: | 2025–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2508.08166 |
| By: | Baez, Maria Josefina (University of Florence); Giannelli, Gianna Claudia (University of Florence); Mangiavacchi, Lucia (University of Perugia) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates how shifts in local labor markets influence maternal expectations about future support from their children, and how those expectations affect adolescents’ socio-emotional development. Using panel data from the Young Lives study in Peru (Rounds 4 and 5), the analysis exploits exogenous variation in female employment opportunities across departments through a shift-share instrument. Results show that improvements in women’s local labor demand reduce the likelihood that mothers expect emotional or financial support from their children in adulthood. These lower expectations are, in turn, associated with improved socio-emotional development among adolescents, captured through standardized indices of self-esteem, self-efficacy, peer relations, and pride. The findings suggest that economic expansion may relax intergenerational expectations of support, thereby reducing the psychological burdens placed on children. This study contributes to research on gendered labor shocks, parental beliefs, and the socio-emotional consequences of intergenerational dynamics, particularly in low- and middle-income countries, showing how economic change can influence child development through shifts in maternal expectations. |
| Keywords: | shift share, maternal expectations, socio-emotional skills, Peru |
| JEL: | D1 J1 I2 |
| Date: | 2025–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18049 |
| By: | Isabella Di Filippo; Bruno Escobar; Juan Facal |
| Abstract: | We study how increases in remote work opportunities for men affect their spouses' labor supply. Exploiting variation in the change in work-from-home (WFH) exposure across occupations before and after the COVID-19 pandemic, we find that women whose husbands experienced larger WFH increases are over 2 percentage points more likely to be employed, equivalent to a 4% rise relative to pre-pandemic levels. Evidence from time-use diaries and childcare questionnaires suggests these effects are driven by intra-household reallocation of child-caring time: women are less likely to engage in primary childcare activities, while men working at home partially compensate by covering more for their spouse. These results highlight the role of intra-household spillovers and bargaining in shaping the labor market consequences of remote work. |
| Date: | 2025–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2508.08184 |
| By: | Ariel Binder; Max Risch; John Voorheis |
| Abstract: | Housing represents the most important capital asset for most U.S. families. Despite substantial analysis of the intergenerational mobility of income, large gaps in our knowledge of the distribution of housing assets and their transmission over time remain, as housing is generally not reflected by income flows. Using novel linked data that combines survey responses with administrative tax data and information on ownership and valuation from property tax records for over 3.4 million families, we provide new evidence on the intergenerational transmission of housing capital. We find that housing capital is more persistent across generations than labor income. We document important disparities between average housing outcomes for White and Black children. These difference persist even conditional on parent rank in the distribution of housing assets, with the gap growing throughout the parental housing capital distribution. A decomposition shows that average differences in children’s labor market outcomes associated with parental assets explain about half of the observed intergenerational persistence (a “labor income channel”), and that there is also a substantial “direct channel” — conditional on children having the same earnings, children of parents with more housing assets have more assets themselves on average. The direct channel is also important for explaining the intergenerational gap in outcomes of Black and White children. Finally, we present quasi-experimental evidence that local housing supply constraints help explain spatial differences in intergenerational persistence across US counties. Our results establish the importance of housing markets, both independently from and jointly with labor markets, in shaping the intergenerational persistence of economic resources. |
| Keywords: | housing markets, intergenerational mobility, homeownership, wealth |
| JEL: | E24 O18 R31 D31 |
| Date: | 2025–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cen:wpaper:25-55 |
| By: | Brynde Kreft |
| Abstract: | I use a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate the general average treatment effect of reducing information frictions for jobseekers in low- and middle-income urban labour markets. I find that information provision generates a small and reasonably certain increase in private employment, but has an uncertain average effect on earnings. Reducing information frictions is particularly beneficial to individuals who previously lacked a method to credibly communicate their skills to firms. I examine the estimate heterogeneity to establish whether the general average effect is informative of the labour market effects of reducing information frictions in similar low- and middle-income countries. I find that the estimates are mutually informative and therefore likely to generalise to other settings well. These findings suggest that information provision interventions offer fairly certain increases in employment for low- and middle-income labour markets, particularly if individuals who are unable to credibly communicate their skills to firms are targeted with the policy. |
| Keywords: | Labour Economics, Labour Policy, Employment, Labour Mobility; Search Matching; Signals |
| JEL: | D83 J6 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:csa:wpaper:2025-09 |
| By: | Lyttelton, Thomas; Nelson, Dylan; Wilmers, Nathan |
| Abstract: | Prominent employers, from Microsoft to the State of Maryland, are increasingly dropping college degree requirements when hiring. Does this provide upward mobility for workers without a college degree? Matching job postings to hires in US administrative data, we show that employers have reduced the share of posts requiring a college degree by more than 10% since 2011. Non-college workers who move to jobs that have dropped degree requirements see substantial and enduring upward mobility. Compared to similar workers on similar pre-hire earnings trajectories, they earn a $6000 per year premium that endures for at least five years after the job move and across subsequent transitions. These hires are more likely to be Black, Hispanic, and female than incumbent workers. Employers also see benefits, as removing degree requirements reduces labor costs: although non-college workers hired into decredentialed jobs earn more than similar non-college workers, they make less than college graduates hired in the same job. Despite these benefits, most employers that drop explicit college requirements continue to hire college graduate applicants into those positions. We find suggestive evidence that employers struggle to integrate new non-college hires and that they face backlash from existing employees. Overall, decredentialed jobs are a promising route to upward mobility for disadvantaged workers, but only when employers follow through beyond job posting language. |
| Date: | 2025–08–13 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:4kgj9_v1 |
| By: | Congressional Budget Office |
| Abstract: | The number of people entering the United States increased sharply starting in 2021 and peaked in 2023 before slowing in 2024. That surge in immigration imposed a fiscal burden on state and local governments. In this report, CBO examines the fiscal impact of that surge in 2023. State and local tax revenues grew, especially sales tax revenues, but the costs of providing services grew more. The largest increases in costs were for primary and secondary education, shelter and related services, and border security. Costs for incarceration and income security programs also increased. |
| JEL: | F22 F66 J11 J15 J61 |
| Date: | 2025–06–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cbo:report:61256 |
| By: | Benjamin Lahey; Benjamin Hyman; Karen Ni; Laura Pilossoph |
| Abstract: | We document the extent to which workers in AI-exposed occupations can successfully retrain for AI-intensive work. We assemble a new workforce development dataset spanning over 1.6 million job training participation spells from all U.S. Workforce Investment and Opportunity Act programs from 2012-2023 linked with occupational measures of AI exposure. Using earnings records observed before and after training, we compare high AI exposure trainees to a matched sample of similar workers who only received job search assistance. We find that AI-exposed workers have high earnings returns from training that are only 25 percent lower than the returns for low AI exposure workers. However, training participants who target AI-intensive occupations face a penalty for doing so, with 29 percent lower returns than AI-exposed workers pursuing more general training. We estimate that between 25 percent to 40 percent of occupations are “AI retrainable” as measured by its workers receiving higher pay for moving to more AI-intensive occupations—a large magnitude given the relatively low-income sample of displaced workers. Positive earnings returns in all groups are driven by the most recent years when labor markets were tightest, suggesting training programs may have stronger signal value when firms reach deeper into the skill market. |
| Keywords: | artificial intelligence; active labor market policies; job training; labor markets |
| JEL: | J08 M53 O31 |
| Date: | 2025–08–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fednsr:101471 |
| By: | Ece Fisgin; Joaquin Garcia-Cabo; Alex Haag; Mitch Lott |
| Abstract: | We present a principal component analysis of euro area labor market conditions by combining information from 22 labor market indicators into two comprehensive series. These two novel indicators provide a systematic view of the current state and forward-looking direction of the euro-area labor market, respectively, and demonstrate superior forecasting performance compared to existing indicators. Crucially, we find significant implications for monetary policy design: a local projection analysis reveals that ECB monetary policy shocks have attenuated effects on both inflation and unemployment when the labor market forward-looking indicator is high. The dampened inflation response calls for tighter policy rate paths than a standard Taylor rule would prescribe. Finally, we show that focusing solely on the official unemployment rate may understate the actual labor market slack, and consequently, the trade-off between labor market health and inflationary dynamics. |
| Keywords: | Employment; Unemployment; Labor market forecasting; European labor market |
| JEL: | E24 E27 J63 |
| Date: | 2025–08–13 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedgif:1415 |
| By: | Hie Joo Ahn; Yunjong Eo |
| Abstract: | This paper empirically investigates sources of hysteresis, focusing on downward nominal wage rigidity and the gender gap in the labor market, using U.S. state-level payroll employment data. Employing a Bayesian Markov-switching model of business cycles, we identify U-shaped and L-shaped recessions, which correspond to quick recoveries and hysteresis, respectively. Both U-shaped and L-shaped recessions are driven by supply and demand shocks; however, U-shaped recessions are associated with recessionary shocks that raise labor productivity, whereas L-shaped recessions are also driven by shocks that reduce labor productivity. Following L-shaped recessions, recoveries in employment, output, and labor productivity are sluggish and accompanied by declining inflation. In contrast, U-shaped recoveries feature stronger rebounds without significant changes in inflation. Greater downward nominal wage rigidity and a larger gender employment gap both increase the likelihood of L-shaped recessions and hysteresis. Downward nominal wage rigidity enhances the effectiveness of both expansionary monetary and tax policies. While expansionary monetary policy becomes more effective with a larger gender gap, the effectiveness of tax cuts remains unaffected. |
| Keywords: | Hysteresis; Regional business cycles; L-shaped recession; U-shaped recession; Wage rigidity; Gender employment gap; Monetary policy; Fiscal policy |
| JEL: | C22 C51 E32 E37 |
| Date: | 2025–08–13 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2025-62 |
| By: | Daysal, N. Meltem (University of Copenhagen); Ding, Hui (affiliation not available); Rossin-Slater, Maya (Stanford University); Schwandt, Hannes (Northwestern University) |
| Abstract: | Preschool-aged children get sick frequently and spread disease to other family members. Despite the universality of this experience, there is limited causal evidence on the magnitudes and consequences of these externalities, especially for infant siblings with developing immune systems and brains. We use Danish administrative data to document that, before age one, younger siblings have 2-3 times higher hospitalization rates for respiratory conditions than older siblings. We combine birth order and within-municipality variation in respiratory disease prevalence among young children, and find lasting differential impacts of early-life respiratory disease exposure on younger siblings’ earnings, educational attainment, chronic respiratory health and mental health-related outcomes. |
| JEL: | I12 I18 J12 J13 |
| Date: | 2025–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18078 |
| By: | Clay, Karen (Carnegie Mellon University); Hernandez-Cortes, Danae (Arizona State University); Jha, Akshaya (Carnegie Mellon University); Lewis, Joshua (University of Montreal); Miller, Noah (University of Southern California); Severnini, Edson (Boston College) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the relative contributions of siting decisions and post-siting demographic shifts to current disparities in exposure to polluting fossil-fuel plants in the United States. Our analysis leverages newly digitized data on power plant siting and operations from 1900-2020, combined with spatially resolved demographics and population data from the U.S Census from 1870-2020. We find little evidence that fossil-fuel plants were disproportionately sited in counties with higher Black population shares on average. However, event study estimates indicate that Black population share grows in the decades after the first fossil-fuel plant is built in a county, with average increases in Black population share of 4 percentage points in the 50-70 years after first siting. These long-run demographic shifts are driven by counties that first hosted a fossil-fuel plant between 1900-1949. We close by exploring how these long-run demographic shifts were shaped by the Great Migration, differential sorting in response to pollution, and other factors. Our findings highlight that the equity implications of siting long-lived infrastructure can differ dramatically depending on the time span considered. |
| Keywords: | environmental justice, fossil-fuel power plants, infrastructure siting, demographic shifts |
| JEL: | N52 N92 Q40 Q52 Q53 Q56 |
| Date: | 2025–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18052 |
| By: | Marius Faber; Gabriel Züllig |
| Abstract: | We estimate the slope of the Phillips curve in the euro area, allowing for nonlinearities - or kinks - in the relationship between labor market slack and inflation. We exploit cross-country variation in labor market conditions in the period 2001-2024, absorbing aggregate shocks and endogenous monetary policy reactions with time fixed effects. We find that while the Phillips curve is usually quite flat, it becomes at least three times as steep if the labor market is sufficiently tight. This kink is more pronounced in the euro area than in the United States, potentially because of more rigid labor markets. Our estimates imply, however, that despite this nonlinearity, the majority of the post-Covid inflation surge was due to factors other than tight labor markets. |
| Keywords: | Phillips curve, Inflation, Nonlinearities |
| JEL: | E30 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:snb:snbwpa:2025-12 |
| By: | Iimi, Atsushi |
| Abstract: | Many African countries are experiencing rapid urbanization. However, job creation has not kept pace, resulting in persistently high urban unemployment rates. Based on basic job search theory, the paper revisits the relationship between employment and transport connectivity at various levels, using data from Dar es Salaam, one of Africa’s fastest-growing developing cities. It shows that those who commute longer distances tend to earn higher wages. Therefore, enhancing the efficiency of urban transport systems is crucial. The paper also identifies variations in the relationship between wages and commute times across different transport modes. Commuters using motorized transportation, particularly private cars and taxis, generally earn more than those using nonmotorized transport. Hence, there is a potential risk associated with the overreliance on private transport modes. The gender wage gap persists in Dar es Salaam, but the positive effect of commuting on wages is greater for women, which can contribute to reducing the gap. |
| Date: | 2025–08–18 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:11186 |
| By: | Mangiavacchi, Lucia (University of Perugia); Piccoli, Luca (University of Trento); Gambardella, Giulia (University of Perugia) |
| Abstract: | This paper estimates the long-term causal effects of music proficiency on emotional intelligence and mental health. Leveraging the staggered rollout of a school orchestra program as a quasi-experimental setting, we identify the causal impact of adolescent musical engagement. Our findings reveal that music training significantly improves both emotional intelligence and mental health into young adulthood. Specifically, musical proficiency fosters key non-cognitive traits, including self-motivation, optimism and adaptability, while also mitigating symptoms of poor mental health, including depression and anxiety. These positive effects are particularly pronounced for males and second-generation migrants. Our evidence demonstrates that learning music has a lasting positive impact on non-cognitive skills, suggesting that universal educational music programs can be a powerful, long-term tool for human capital development and inequality reduction. |
| Keywords: | transition to adulthood, mental health, emotional intelligence, music training, extracurricular activities |
| JEL: | D91 I24 J13 |
| Date: | 2025–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18064 |
| By: | Wall, Howard; Ferrarini, Tawni |
| Abstract: | This paper shows how economic freedom can have heterogeneous effects on unemployment rates, employment-population ratios, and labor force participation. Our difference-in-difference approach compares counties in metropolitan statistical areas that straddle state borders, isolating own-state effects of economic freedom. Although overall economic freedom does not significantly affect labor market outcomes for the entire population, its effects are diverse and varied according to age, educational attainment, sex, and race. This empirical study also examines the heterogeneous effects of specific areas of economic freedom (government spending, taxation, and labor market regulations), highlighting the complexity of these relationships and suggesting that economic freedom is not a one-size-fits-all policy approach. |
| Keywords: | Economic freedom, labor market outcomes |
| JEL: | H73 J08 P16 R12 R23 |
| Date: | 2025–07–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:125191 |
| By: | Reynolds, Nicholas (University of Essex) |
| Abstract: | The secular trend of growth in height suddenly slowed for Americans born after the middle of the 20th century, and the health and human capital of these cohorts as adults appears to have declined, or at least stagnated, more broadly. This paper presents evidence that the physical growth of these unhealthy cohorts was particularly stunted during adolescence. Using data from NHANES and its predecessors, I show that males born in the 1960s were the same height in childhood as those born a decade earlier, but then fell behind and were half an inch shorter in adolescence. By adulthood, the heights of the two cohorts were nearly identical. This suggests that males born in the 1960s had a later or smaller adolescent growth spurt than those born a decade earlier. Similar patterns are not evident in the height of females; however, females born in the 1960s experienced menarche later than those born a decade earlier. The delayed puberty of cohorts born in the 1960s appears to be a short-term blip in a long-run trend towards earlier puberty. The findings strongly suggest that something had already gone wrong by at least adolescence for American cohorts born after mid-century. |
| Keywords: | height, health, human capital, cohorts, early-life |
| JEL: | I14 J13 N32 |
| Date: | 2025–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18046 |
| By: | Nuttaporn Rochanahastin; Shinawat Horayangkura |
| Abstract: | This study examines saving and dissaving behaviors across different age groups and generational cohorts in Thailand, using nearly three decades of repeated cross-sectional data from the Thai Household Socio-Economic Survey (HSES). The findings reveal a clear hump-shaped life-cycle pattern in saving behavior, with savings peaking between the ages of 56 and 65, slightly beyond traditional working life. Importantly, wealth accumulation remains positive even into later life stages, suggesting the influence of precautionary motives, cultural bequest norms, and limited annuitization options. Generational comparisons show that Baby Boomers and Generation X consistently save more than Generation Y, reflecting differences in economic experiences and structural opportunities across cohorts. The study underscores the impact of economic experiences and life stages on saving behavior. These findings highlight the critical interplay of temporal, demographic, and cohort effects, offering valuable insights for policymakers seeking to promote financial resilience and security in an aging society. |
| Keywords: | Household behavior; Household saving; Lifecycle; Age; Cohorts |
| JEL: | D10 D14 E21 J11 |
| Date: | 2025–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pui:dpaper:236 |