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on Labour Economics |
| By: | Brébion, Clément (Copenhagen Business School); Briole, Simon (Paris School of Economics); Khoury, Laura (PSL Université Paris Dauphine) |
| Abstract: | While extensive research on unemployment insurance (UI) has examined how benefits affect workers’ job search, little is known about how eligibility conditions shape firms’ hiring decisions. These conditions, often requiring a minimum work history, affect the value workers place on contracts meeting the eligibility threshold. Exploiting a French reform that modified these requirements after 2009, we show that firms internalize workers’ preferences and adjust contract durations to align with the new threshold. This reveals an overlooked ex-ante mechanism, where firms respond to UI incentives when posting vacancies—before meeting workers—rather than only through ex post adjustments. This response shifts contract duration distributions, also affecting workers already eligible for UI. Our findings have two implications: first, UI shapes firms’ behavior at the vacancy stage, influencing job creation decisions ex ante, not just separation decisions ex post; second, UI eligibility conditions generate significant spillover effects. |
| Keywords: | firm behavior, employment duration, unemployment insurance, temporary employment |
| JEL: | J08 J64 J65 H32 |
| Date: | 2025–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18014 |
| By: | Bryson, Alex (University College London); Kambayashi, Ryo (Musashi University); Kuwahara, Susumu (Reitaku University); Nakamura, Akie (Rengo-RIALS); Wels, Jacques (Université Libre de Bruxelles) |
| Abstract: | Official government estimates show a gradual decline in union density in Japan over several decades akin to that in other countries with decentralized bargaining structures. However, new evidence from various social surveys indicates that union density has been rising in Japan. Using one of these social surveys – the Survey on the Work and Life of Workers (SWLW) – we show union density has risen by 7.3 percentage points to 29.1% in the Japanese private sector between 2011/13 and 2020/24. We decompose the growth in union density since 2011/13 to establish how much of it is attributable to changes in workforce composition. Conditioning on union presence at the workplace, compositional change accounts for 47% of the increase in union density. The remaining 53% is due to within-group change with unions increasing membership across all types of worker including some with traditionally low rates of unionization. However, establishing a union at the workplace remains key since virtually all the growth in union membership (97%) is in unionized workplaces. |
| Keywords: | Japan, union presence, union density, union membership, decomposition |
| JEL: | J51 |
| Date: | 2025–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18010 |
| By: | Mountford, Andrew (Royal Holloway, University of London); Wadsworth, Jonathan (Royal Holloway, University of London) |
| Abstract: | The empirical migration literature often identifies the labor market effects of immigration using exogenous variation of migration concentration across sectors. However, this approach differences out macroeconomic effects which occur in all sectors. We apply macroeconomic time series methods to UK labor market data for 35 different sectors, to model, for the first time, immigration, native wages and hours worked, as responding to demand, supply and immigration shocks at both aggregate and sectoral levels. The labor market is modeled as being subject to multiple shocks at any one time. Using VAR, we find that migrant labor is, in part, endogenously determined by aggregate demand and supply along with an exogenous component. Using historical decompositions which decompose both the error terms and, novelly, the constant terms into their structural parts, we show that the ‘migration shock’ accounts for most of the change in migration share and has a significant negative effect on native wage growth, particularly in unskilled sectors. However other contemporaneous shocks have offsetting positive associations between immigration and native wages, whoe effects differ across sectors |
| Keywords: | sectoral heterogeneity, VAR, supply, demand, immigration |
| JEL: | J6 |
| Date: | 2025–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18026 |
| By: | Julia Baarck; Moritz Bode; Andreas Peichl |
| Abstract: | This paper is the first to show that intergenerational income mobility in Germany has decreased over time. We provide estimates of intergenerational persistence for the birth cohorts 1968-1987 and document that the rank-rank slope rises sharply for cohorts born in the late 1970s and early 1980s, after which it stabilizes at a higher level. Depending on the specification, the slope increases by 59%-107%. As a step towards understanding the mechanisms behind this increase in income persistence, we show that parental income has become much more important for educational outcomes of children over the same time period. Moreover, we show that the increase in intergenerational income persistence coincided with an increase in cross-sectional income inequality, providing novel evidence for an "Intertemporal Great Gatsby Curve" in Germany. |
| Keywords: | intergenerational mobility, social mobility, education, inequality |
| JEL: | J62 I24 D63 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12058 |
| By: | Jean-Victor Alipour |
| Abstract: | I study how the rise in working from home (WFH) affects the gender division of paid and unpaid labor (caregiving, domestic tasks). Identification uses differences in individuals' exposure to the Covid-induced WFH shock, measured by the WFH feasibility of their job in 2019. Using panel data from the German SOEP, I estimate 2SLS models that instrument realized WFH in 2022 with WFH feasibility. Results show that WFH reduces paid hours and increases domestic work and leisure (including sleep) among women. Men's time use remains largely unchanged, partly because WFH induces moves toward larger, more distant homes, offsetting commuting time savings. Within-couple analyses confirm that the Big Shift to WFH intensifies gender gaps in paid and unpaid work, particularly caregiving. I find that gender norms, bargaining power, and childcare demands interact with WFH in ways that reinforce the unequal division of labor. |
| Keywords: | work from home, time use, unpaid work, division of labor, gender norms, bargaining power |
| JEL: | J16 J22 J13 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12052 |
| By: | Chiswick, Barry R. (George Washington University); Corman, Hope (Rider University); Dave, Dhaval M. (Bentley University); Reichman, Nancy E. (Rutgers University) |
| Abstract: | This study analyzes, for the first time, the effect of increases in the minimum wage on the labor market outcomes of working age adults with cognitive disabilities, a vulnerable and low-skilled sector of the actual and potential labor pool. Using data from the American Community Survey (2008-2023), we estimated effects of the minimum wage on employment, labor force participation, weeks worked, and hours worked among working age individuals with cognitive disabilities using a generalized difference-in-differences research design. We found that a higher effective minimum wage leads to reduced employment and labor force participation among individuals with cognitive disabilities but has no significant effect on labor supply at the intensive margin for this group. Adverse impacts were particularly pronounced for those with lower educational attainment. In contrast, we found no significant labor market effects of an increase in the minimum wage for individuals with physical disabilities or in the non-disabled population. |
| Keywords: | american community survey, labor market outcomes, employment, cognitive disability, minimum wage |
| JEL: | J14 J2 |
| Date: | 2025–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18021 |
| By: | Catherine Dilnot (Department of Accounting, Oxford Brookes University); Lindsey Macmillan (UCL Centre for Education Policy & Equalising Opportunities); Claire Tyler (UCL Centre for Education Policy & Equalising Opportunities) |
| Abstract: | Research on intergenerational income mobility has shown that the UK has relatively low mobility compared to other countries and that this is, in part, driven by inequalities in access to elite occupations in the labour market by socio-economic background. Many employers are actively trying to reduce these gaps in access by socio-economic background, as well as by ethnicity and gender, forreasons of efficiency as well as equity. But they lack access to detailed information about the relevant pools of talent from which they are hiring to set informed hiring targets. This study provides such information by describing the talent pool of English domiciled university graduates and school leavers in terms of socio-economic background, ethnicity and gender by university type, subject and outcomes and school prior attainment. Importantly, given the diversity in ethnicity by place in England, it also provides details of talent pools by Travel to Work Area. Large differences in demographic make-up by attainment, institution type, subject and place are found. |
| Keywords: | social mobility; inequalities; occupations; applications; job offers; gender; ethnicity |
| JEL: | J62 J15 J16 I24 |
| Date: | 2025–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ucl:cepeow:25-09 |
| By: | Pesola, Hanna Onerva (VATT Institute for Economic Reserach, Helsinki); Sarvimäki, Matti (Aalto University); Virkola, Tuomo (VATT, Helsinki) |
| Abstract: | We document substantial heterogeneity in labor market integration, skill investments, and outmigration across immigrant admission categories. Using newly available data on residence permits in Finland, we establish four facts. First, there are large initial differences in employment and earnings across labor, family, refugee, student, and EU migrants. Second, these differences diminish substantially over time. Third, the groups make distinct investments in country-specific and general skills. Fourth, both the prevalence of and selection into outmigration vary widely across admission categories. These findings align with models where investments in skills depend on the expected length of stay in the host country. |
| Keywords: | integration, immigration |
| JEL: | J61 J31 F22 |
| Date: | 2025–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18012 |
| By: | Hanushek, Eric A. (Stanford University); Kang, Le (Nanjing University); Li, Xueying (Nanjing University of Finance and Economics); Zhang, Lei (Zhejiang University) |
| Abstract: | The changing pattern of quality in China’s rural schools across time and province is extracted from the differential labor market earnings of rural migrant workers. Variations in rates of return to years of schooling across migrant workers working in the same urban labor market but having different sites of basic education provide for direct estimation of provincial school quality. Corroborating this approach, these school quality estimates prove to be highly correlated with provincial cognitive skill test scores for the same demographic group. Returns to quality increase with economic development level of destination cities. Importantly, quality appears higher and provincial variation appears lower for younger cohorts, indicating at least partial effectiveness of more recent policies aimed at improving rural school quality across provinces. Surprisingly, however, provincial variations in quality are uncorrelated with teacher-student ratio or per student spending. |
| Keywords: | migration, school quality, China |
| JEL: | I25 J6 |
| Date: | 2025–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18030 |
| By: | Bonilla-Mejía, Leonardo (Banco de la República de Colombia); Bracco, Jessica (CEDLAS-UNLP); Ham Gonzalez, Andres (Department of Economics, Universidad de los Andes); Peñaloza-Pacheco, Leonardo (Cornell University) |
| Abstract: | We study how drug-related violence affects emigration from Central America, a region with rapidly rising migration to the United States. Using multiple data sources, we apply an instrumental variables strategy based on proximity to drug-trafficking routes and coca production in Colombia. We find that violence significantly increases intentions, plans, and preparations to emigrate—especially to the U.S.—with stronger effects among young and high-skilled individuals. Mediation analysis suggests this response is driven by declining economic activity and, more importantly, deteriorating labor market conditions caused by escalating violence. |
| Keywords: | drug trafficking, violence, economic activity, labor markets, migration |
| JEL: | J61 O15 N96 |
| Date: | 2025–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18028 |
| By: | Éva Komlósi (University of Pécs); Hanga Bilicz (University of Pécs); Erkko Autio (Imperial College London); Donghyun Park (Asian Development Bank); Shu Tian (Asian Development Bank) |
| Abstract: | This study examines the impact of digitalization on the context shaping male and female entrepreneurial potential across 78 economies, utilizing the Female Entrepreneurship Index (FEI) and the Male Entrepreneurship Index (MEI). By analyzing the effects of digital transformation, the study aims to understand whether digital tools can reduce gender disparities in entrepreneurship or if they primarily benefit one gender. Findings indicate a positive effect of digitalization on both FEI and MEI, affirming that digital readiness enhances entrepreneurial opportunities for all. However, in economies where MEI surpasses FEI, digitalization tends to widen the gender gap, with male entrepreneurs gaining a disproportionate advantage. Conversely, in contexts where female entrepreneurship dominates, digitalization does not significantly impact the MEI–FEI gap. Additional analyses reveal that factors like economic development (gross domestic product per capita) and gender inequalities (political empowerment of women) interact with digitalization to support both genders, though competitive environments are notably more influential on female entrepreneurial potential. These insights highlight the nuanced role of digitalization in fostering entrepreneurship, suggesting policies must consider these dynamics to effectively support gender-balanced growth in entrepreneurial ecosystems. |
| Keywords: | entrepreneurship;female entrepreneurship;male entrepreneurship;gender;Female Entrepreneurship Index |
| JEL: | L26 O33 J16 |
| Date: | 2025–08–15 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:adbewp:021495 |
| By: | Caliendo, Marco (University of Potsdam); Cobb-Clark, Deborah A. (University of Sydney); Huber, Katrin (University of Potsdam); Pfeifer, Harald (BIBB); Uhlendorff, Arne (CREST); Wagner, Sophie (University of Potsdam) |
| Abstract: | We examine how gender shapes managers' decisions regarding on-the-job training using a discrete choice experiment embedded in a representative survey of German firms. While previous research has focused on employees' demand for it, we make a contribution by studying firms' supply of training. In our vignette study, 1, 144 managers evaluate hypothetical candidate profiles that differ by gender, age, competence, job mobility, and training characteristics. We find that women are somewhat more likely than men to receive training offers. The exceptions are that female managers are more reluctant to choose young women for training, while male managers favor male candidates for fully employer-funded training. These patterns persist across various model specifications and remain robust when controlling for observable manager characteristics. Heterogeneity analyses reveal that female managers are more reluctant to offer training to women when they operate in competitive product markets, male-dominated industries, and firms without collective bargaining agreements. More broadly, our results highlight that managers influence not only how much training is undertaken, but also how training opportunities are distributed among employees. |
| Keywords: | human capital investment, manager decisions, gender differences, training |
| JEL: | J24 J16 M53 |
| Date: | 2025–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18019 |
| By: | Hamermesh, Daniel S. (University of Texas at Austin); Myck, Michal (Centre for Economic Analysis, CenEA) |
| Abstract: | We consider how a physical disability alters patterns of time use. A disability may raise the time cost of all activities; of some—making them differentially less worth doing; or it may make switching activities more costly. The first yields no predictions about time use, but the latter two possibilities both predict that fewer activities will be undertaken, with more time spent on each. These explanations describe our findings based on non-working ATUS 2008-22 respondents ages 70+, 32 percent of whom self-assess a disability. Data from the Polish Time Use Survey, where disability is medically certified, show similar results; and they demonstrate the same loss of variety over multiple days. Remarkably similar basic results are found using homogenized British, Canadian, French, Spanish, and Italian time-diaries. Overall, a mobility/physical disability leads an otherwise identical person to engage in over 10 percent fewer activities on a typical day. The lost variety represents extra costs equivalent in data from six countries to over twice the average annual income among older individuals in the country. |
| Keywords: | time use, disability |
| JEL: | J14 I10 D13 |
| Date: | 2025–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18022 |
| By: | Shan, Xiaoyue (National University of Singapore); Zölitz, Ulf (University of Zurich); Backes-Gellner, Uschi (University of Zurich) |
| Abstract: | We study the impact of online instruction with a field experiment that randomly assigns 1, 344 university students to different proportions of online and in-person lectures in multiple introductory courses. Increased online instruction leaves men’s exam performance unaffected but significantly lowers women’s performance, particularly in math-intensive courses. Online instruction also reduces women’s longer-run performance and increases their study dropout. Exploring mechanisms, we find that women exposed to more online lectures report greater difficulty in connecting with peers, less engaging instructors, and lower course satisfaction. Our findings suggest that shifting toward more online instruction may disproportionally harm women. |
| Keywords: | gender disparities, field experiment, Online instruction |
| JEL: | J16 I23 C93 |
| Date: | 2025–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18011 |
| By: | Bhalotra, Sonia (Department of Economics, University of Warwick, CAGE, IFS, CEPR, IEA, IZA); Daysal, N. Meltem (Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen, CEBI, CESifo, IZA); Trandafir, Mircea (Rockwool Foundation Research Unit and IZA) |
| Abstract: | Mental health disorders tend to emerge in childhood, with half starting by age 14. This makes early intervention important, but treatment rates are low, and antidepressant treatment for children remains controversial since an FDA warning in 2004 that highlighted adverse effects. Linking individuals across Danish administrative registers, we provide some of the first evidence of impacts of antidepressant treatment in childhood on objectively measured mental health indicators and economic outcomes over time, and the first attempt to investigate under- vs overtreatment. Leveraging conditional random assignment of patients to psychiatrists with different prescribing tendencies, we find that treatment during ages 8-15 improves test scores at age 16, particularly in Math, increases enrollment in post-compulsory education at age 18, and that it leads to higher employment and earnings and lower welfare dependence at ages 25–30. We demonstrate, on average, a reduction in suicide attempts, self-harm, and hospital visits following AD initiation. The gains to treatment are, in general, larger for low SES children, but they are less likely to be treated. Using a marginal treatment effects framework and Math scores as the focal outcome, we show positive returns to treatment among the untreated. Policy simulations confirm that expanding treatment among low SES children (and boys) generates substantial net benefits, consistent with under-treatment in these groups. Our findings underscore the potential of early mental health treatment to improve longer term economic outcomes and reducing inequality. |
| Keywords: | Antidepressants, mental health, education, test scores, human capital, Denmark, physician leniency, marginal treatment effects JEL Classification: I11, I12, I18, J13 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cge:wacage:766 |
| By: | Karen Clay; Danae Hernandez-Cortes; Akshaya Jha; Joshua A. Lewis; Noah S. Miller; Edson R. Severnini |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the relative contributions of siting decisions and post-siting demo-graphic shifts to current disparities in exposure to polluting fossil-fuel plants in the United States. Our analysis leverages newly digitized data on power plant siting and operations from 1900-2020, combined with spatially resolved demographics and population data from the U.S Census from 1870-2020. We find little evidence that fossil-fuel plants were disproportionately sited in counties with higher Black population shares on average. However, event study estimates indicate that Black population share grows in the decades after the first fossil-fuel plant is built in a county, with average increases in Black population share of 4 percentage points in the 50-70 years after first siting. These long-run demographic shifts are driven by counties that first hosted a fossil-fuel plant between 1900-1949. We close by exploring how these long-run demographic shifts were shaped by the Great Migration, differential sorting in response to pollution, and other factors. Our findings highlight that the equity implications of siting long-lived infrastructure can differ dramatically depending on the time span considered. |
| JEL: | D63 J18 N72 Q53 Q58 |
| Date: | 2025–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34109 |
| By: | Etienne Bacher; Michel Beine; Hillel Rapoport |
| Abstract: | We investigate the effect of anti-immigration attitudes on immigration plans to Europe. We propose a new instrument for attitudes toward immigration, namely, the number of country nationals killed in terrorist attacks taking place outside of Europe. Our first-stage results confirm that such terrorist attacks increase negative attitudes to immigration in the origin country of the victims. Our second-stage results then show that this higher hostility toward migrants decreases the attractiveness of the country for prospective immigrants at all skill levels. |
| Keywords: | immigration, terrorism, anti-immigration attitudes |
| JEL: | C1 F2 J1 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12003 |
| By: | Leonid V. Azarnert |
| Abstract: | I investigate how taxing immigrants and redistributing the collected funds as educational subsidies influence human capital accumulation and growth in the source economy. The analysis is performed in a two-country growth model with endogenous fertility, in which public knowledge spillovers from the more advanced destination economy amplify the productivity of investment in children’s education in the sending country. I demonstrate that, while in the short run, the source economy accumulates more human capital if the subsidies are provided domestically, if the spillover effect is strong enough, in the long run, it can accumulate more human capital if education is subsidized in the destination country. |
| Keywords: | migration, child education, fertility, human capital, growth, brain drain, brain dilution tax |
| JEL: | D30 F22 J10 J13 J24 O15 O40 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12053 |
| By: | Ishita Varma (Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research; Institute of Economic Growth) |
| Abstract: | India's indigenous communities (Schedule Tribes or STs) have historically relied on forests for their subsistence, livelihood and cultural identity. Despite this, the STs lacked formal rights to reside in forests and use forest resources under governmental control. In 2008, the Forest Rights Act (FRA) was implemented which granted these STs access to forest land and non-timber forest products (NTFPs). This paper examines the impact of FRA on the dietary diversity of STs. We evaluate this objective by making use of four rounds of a large-scale consumer expenditure survey and use variation in forest cover as a proxy for the potential of the Act to employ a generalised difference-in-differences strategy. We find that post-FRA, dietary diversity of ST households increased in areas with greater forest cover. This increased dietary diversity is driven by an increase in the diversity of vegetables, fruits, and oils consumed. In addition, we find that the sources of food shifted from subsistence-based collection and cultivation to market purchases. Suggestive evidence points to an occupational shift toward non-agricultural employments, particularly in wholesale and retail trade, potentially facilitated by improved NTFP access. |
| Keywords: | FRA, Dietary Diversity, Indigenous Communities, Forest Dwellers, Land Tenure |
| JEL: | J15 O15 Q15 Q23 |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ind:igiwpp:2025-012 |
| By: | Carl E. Walsh; Carl Walsh |
| Abstract: | The current 5-year review of the FOMC’s Statement on Longer-Run Goals and Monetary Policy Strategy provides an opportunity to assess the revisions made in 2020. I review the rationale behind the 2020 revisions and then discuss the new operational objectives: asymmetric average inflation targeting and shortfalls from maximum employment. Macroeconomic developments since 2020 led to an environment that was very different than the one anticipated when the 2020 policy framework was adopted. In this new environment, the 2020 changes created a risk that the US would suffer a repeat of the 1970s, a risk compounded by the FOMC’s slow reaction as inflation rose during 2021-2022. I illustrate the consequences of such a delay in addressing high inflation. The experience of the past five years offers some new lessons for the current review of the policy framework, as well as reinforcing the importance of some old lessons. |
| Keywords: | monetary policy, Federal Reserve, inflation, unemployment |
| JEL: | E31 E52 E58 E61 J64 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12056 |
| By: | Cai, Huan (College of Business, Southern University of Science and Technology (SUSTech), Shenzhen, China); Dong, Lu (College of Business, Southern University of Science and Technology (SUSTech), Shenzhen, China); Xie, Jian (College of Business, Southern University of Science and Technology (SUSTech), Shenzhen, China) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines gender disparities in parenting in the digital domain, using a novel dataset that records the gender composition of users across more than 6, 000 app-level observations in China. Two patterns stand out. First, parenting apps are strongly feminized: women account for nearly two-thirds of users, compared to fewer than half for the typical non-parenting app. Second, the female share is highest in cities where women enjoy greater income and educational attainment, and lowest in areas marked by more entrenched gender inequality. The women most engaged in digital caregiving are therefore those best positioned to transcend traditional roles. Mechanism analysis suggests that this is not driven by broader digital fluency among affluent women, but rather reflects their intentional choice for intensive parenting practices. |
| Keywords: | Gender Inequality, Digital Technology, Parenting, Unpaid labor, China JEL Classification: J13, J16, O33 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cge:wacage:765 |
| By: | Amberger, Harald; Stocken, Phillip C. |
| Abstract: | We examine how a CEO develops a reputation for credible financial reporting and how this reputation influences investor reactions to earnings announcements. We find that investors discount earnings news when CEOs have both strong incentives to misreport and weak reporting reputations. Further, we show that the reputation for reporting integrity is CEO-specific- a firm can restore its reputation for credible financial reporting by appointing a new CEO. Disclosures about discretionary accruals, like the allowance for doubtful accounts, play a key role in shaping these reputations. Our findings underscore the importance of ethical reporting. |
| Keywords: | Credible financial reporting, earnings manipulation, reputation |
| JEL: | G14 J63 M40 M41 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:arqudp:323940 |