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on Labour Economics |
| By: | Hornstein, Andreas; Karabarbounis, Marios; Kurmann, André; Lalé, Etienne; Ta, Lien |
| Abstract: | Unemployment insurance (UI) acts both as a disincentive for labor supply and as a demand stimulus, which may explain why empirical studies often find limited effects of UI on employment. This paper provides independent estimates of the disincentive effects arising from the largest expansion of UI in U.S. history, the pandemic unemployment benefits. Using high-frequency data on small restaurants and retailers from Homebase, we control for demand effects by comparing neighboring businesses that largely share the positive impact of UI stimulus. We find that employment in low-wage businesses recovered more slowly than employment in neighboring high-wage businesses in labor markets with larger differences in the relative generosity of pandemic UI benefits. According to a labor search model that replicates the estimated employment differences between low- and high-wage businesses, the disincentive effects from the pandemic UI programs held back the aggregate employment recovery by 3.4 percentage points between April and December 2020. |
| Keywords: | Unemployment Insurance, Disincentive Effects, Search and Matching Models |
| JEL: | E24 E32 J64 J65 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:clefwp:319878 |
| By: | Carole Bonnet; Léa Dubreuil (CREST-ENSAE); Bertrand Garbinti (CREST-ENSAE-Institut Polytechnique Paris, and CEPR); Pierre Pora |
| Abstract: | Using a rich administrative dataset representative of the French population, we study the causal impact of the first childbirth on the within-couple inequality in France. We find that women’s contribution to total household income 5 years after the birth of their first child is 16% lower than what it would have been absent children. Both partners experience an income loss after childbirth, driven by a decline in working hours. However, the drop is much larger for women: 23% for women and 4% for men five years after childbirth. The drop in woman’s contribution to total household income after childbirth is more pronounced for women with a higher contribution to couple’s income before childbirth. This is both because the child penalty is higher for these women compared to others, and because their partners experience the largest increase in income following childbirth compared to other partners. Moreover, heterogeneous responses across couples reshape the entire distribution of withincouple inequality, notably through a sharp decline in the share of egalitarian couples, while the share of female-breadwinner couples slightly decreases but remains closed to its already low level. |
| Keywords: | child penalty, gender inequality, within-couple inequality, gender norms, marital specialization. |
| JEL: | J12 J13 J16 J22 J71 |
| Date: | 2025–06–15 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crs:wpaper:2025-08 |
| By: | Grönqvist, Erik (Department of Medical Sciences, Health Economics, Centre for Health Economic Research (HEFUU) and Uppsala Center for Labor Studies (UCLS), Uppsala University.); Okuyama, Yoko (Department of Economics, UCLS, and Uppsala Center for Fiscal Studies (UCFS), Uppsala University); Hensvik, Lena (Department of Economics and UCLS, Uppsala University); Thoresson, Anna (Reykjavik University, Institute for Evaluation of Labour Market and Education Policy (IFAU) and UCLS, Uppsala University.) |
| Abstract: | We study how changes in couples’ relative wages affect the division of childcare. Using a nationwide wage reform that raised pay in the female-dominated teaching profession, we find that closing 25% of the earnings gap between female teachers and their male spouses led to a 12% reduction in the childcare time gap. This result holds when we extend the analysis to major pay raises for women at the population level. Data support the mechanism that women reduce their childcare time when the spouse can step in by working more from home. Policies that address female pay can foster household equality if men have access to flexible work arrangements. |
| Keywords: | Household behavior; Childcare responsibility; Gender gaps; Working from home |
| JEL: | D13 J16 J22 |
| Date: | 2025–06–27 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:ifauwp:2025_011 |
| By: | Elena Lagomarsino (University of Genoa); Francesco Trevisan (Ca' Foscari University of Venice) |
| Abstract: | This paper quantifies how intra-household economic violence—financial control that restricts a partner’s labour-market choices—affects women’s labour supply. Extending the collective household model, we treat women in same-sex (SS) couples as an unconstrained benchmark and compare them with observationally similar women in opposite-sex (OS) couples. Using the 2023 American Community Survey PUMS and nearest-neighbour propensity-score matching on individual, partner and household characteristics (including a proxy for bargaining power), we find that SS women work about 1.5 hours more per week than matched OS women. Heterogeneity tests show the gap is larger for married couples (1.5 h) than for unmarried couples and twice as large in Republican-leaning states (2.3 h) as in Democratic states, consistent with stronger gender norms and financial interdependence intensifying economic violence. Replicating the analysis for 2019–2022 yields stable, significant effects, confirming temporal robustness. The findings highlight economic violence as an important, and policy-relevant, mechanism behind persistent gender disparities in labour supply. |
| Keywords: | intra-household allocation; propensity score matching; female labor market outcomes |
| JEL: | J16 J22 C21 D13 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ven:wpaper:2025:07 |
| By: | Armando Miano (University of Naples Federico II and CSEF.) |
| Abstract: | I study how beliefs about search costs, returns to search effort, and outside options relate to the job mobility decisions of employed workers. I design an online survey and administer it to a representative sample of wage and salaried workers in the US. In the survey, I directly measure employed workers’ perceptions of search costs—time, money, stress—the perceived returns to their job search effort—the expected success rate of their job applications—and their beliefs about their opportunities outside of their current job. I document significant heterogeneity in expectations across demographic groups. Women expect higher costs and lower returns to effort. I find that beliefs about outside options, returns to search effort and search costs are significant predictors of job search intentions. Respondents who expect to spend more time looking for job openings have a lower propensity to search, consistent with the relevance of information frictions. Using two information experiments, I show that accurate information about the median wage does not affect search intentions, whereas shifting perceived search costs improves women’s willingness to search. |
| Keywords: | On-the-Job Search, Job Mobility, Search Costs, Survey, Subjective Expectations, Online Experiment. |
| JEL: | J01 J62 D91 D83 |
| Date: | 2025–06–19 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sef:csefwp:753 |
| By: | Natalie Chen; Dennis Novy; Diego Solórzano |
| Abstract: | In 2018 and 2019, the US administration increased tariffs on imports from China. Did these tariffs lead to more US imports from other countries such as Mexico? Using highly disaggregated data on the universe of Mexican firm-level exports, we find evidence of trade diversion from China to Mexico. We then combine the export data with detailed longitudinal employer-employee data to investigate the impact of trade diversion on labor market outcomes for workers employed by Mexican exporters. We find that trade diversion increased the labor demand of exporters exposed to US tariffs against China, resulting in more employment and higher wages, especially for low-wage workers such as female, unskilled, younger, and non-permanently insured employees. The effects were concentrated in technology and skill-intensive manufacturing industries. |
| Keywords: | employment, exports, firms, tariffs, trade costs, trade diversion, wages, workers |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11941 |
| By: | Alessandra Cascarico (Bocconi University, Dondena and CESifo.); Edoardo Di Porto (CSEF, INPS, Università di Napoli Federico II, UCFS, Uppsala University); Joanna Kopinska (University of Rome La Sapienza); Salvatore Lattanzio (Bank of Italy and Dondena) |
| Abstract: | Relying on a reform that increased parental leave generosity, we estimate workplace peer effects in the use of leave, with a focus on fathers. Coworker fathers are more likely to take parental leave when exposed to a higher share of peer fathers, who are exogenously affected by the reform. This effect is stronger in larger establishments, those with higher levels of social capital and higher use of parental leave before the reform. We also document that own-gender peer effects are larger than cross-gender influences, and show the absence of career costs for fathers exposed to the reform, which provides an explanation for our findings. Peer effects extend to coworker fathers’ partners, who experience an increase in earnings and labor supply. Peer effects are observed also for mothers, but the response of their partners is less pronounced. |
| Keywords: | Parental leave, Peer effects, Career costs, Female labor market participation. |
| JEL: | G33 K22 L25 O52 |
| Date: | 2025–04–15 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sef:csefwp:748 |
| By: | Mark Duggan; Jonathan Gruber; Audrey Guo |
| Abstract: | In the United States, unemployment insurance (UI) is funded through employer-side payroll taxes that are experience-rated based on previous UI claims. States differ significantly with respect to the financing of their programs, and a majority of state programs do not currently meet minimum UI trust fund solvency standards. A common culprit in the least solvent states is a very low tax base of earnings on which UI taxes are levied. We focus on California, the least solvent of the 50 state UI programs, with debt currently to the federal government of $21 billion, and which has the lowest base of taxable earnings at $7000 per year. We use matched employer-employee administrative data to estimate the impact of financing reforms to California’s UI system. We find that raising the taxable earnings base would replenish the state’s UI trust fund and would increase experience rating by reducing the number of systematically subsidized firms. While this improves vertical equity of the UI system, it would also worsen horizontal equity by imposing much larger percentage increases in tax costs on the firms with the fewest layoffs. Alternatively, matching the higher tax base with both higher maximum and lower minimum rates could improve both experience rating and horizontal equity. |
| JEL: | H25 J38 J65 |
| Date: | 2025–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33995 |
| By: | Francois de Soyres; Simon Fuchs; Illenin O. Kondo; Helene Maghin |
| Abstract: | We show how local worker flow adjustment margins yield a theory-consistent sufficient statistic approximating the welfare effects of local shocks. Furthermore, we isolate a city's insurance value as this approximation's second-order term. Leveraging rich labor flows data across occupations, industries, and cities in France, we estimate spatial and nonspatial flows responses to local labor demand shocks. Less economically diverse French cities experience deeper contractions in gross outflows following negative shocks. In contrast, more economic concentration begets a modestly larger increase in gross worker flows following positive shocks. Altogether, we uncover sizable welfare insurance gains from local economic diversity. |
| Keywords: | sufficient statistic; labor flows; concentration; economic diversity; welfare |
| JEL: | J61 J62 J21 |
| Date: | 2025–03–25 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedawp:101192 |
| By: | Barry Chiswick; Hope Corman; Dhaval M. Dave; Nancy Reichman |
| Abstract: | This study analyzes, for the first time, the effect of increases in the minimum wage on the labor market outcomes of working age adults with cognitive disabilities, a vulnerable and low-skilled sector of the actual and potential labor pool. Using data from the American Community Survey (2008-2023), we estimated effects of the minimum wage on employment, labor force participation, weeks worked, and hours worked among working age individuals with cognitive disabilities using a generalized difference-in-differences research design. We found that a higher effective minimum wage leads to reduced employment and labor force participation among individuals with cognitive disabilities but has no significant effect on labor supply at the intensive margin for this group. Adverse impacts were particularly pronounced for those with lower educational attainment. In contrast, we found no significant labor market effects of an increase in the minimum wage for individuals with physical disabilities or in the non-disabled population. |
| JEL: | J14 |
| Date: | 2025–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33990 |
| By: | Hyeongsuk Kim; Chulhee Lee; Karen Eggleston |
| Abstract: | Korea’s labor force shift toward older, female, and more educated workers has been even more dramatic than that of the US in recent decades. This paper documents how Korean job characteristics vary by age and characterizes the “age-friendliness” of Korean employment from 2000 to 2020 by applying the Age-Friendliness Index (AFI) developed by Acemoglu, Mühlbach and Scott to Korean occupational data. The AFI measures job characteristics—such as physical demands and job autonomy—based on occupational descriptions and worker preferences. Our primary empirical findings are that the age-friendliness of Korean jobs grew more slowly than in the US, and that older Koreans were not the main beneficiaries of these jobs. Both findings reflect the demographic, labor market, and institutional differences between Korea and the US. Slow growth of AFI can be partially explained by labor market rigidities, the role of large firms in Korea, and the flattening of managerial structures. |
| JEL: | I0 J1 J20 J32 |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33813 |
| By: | Zachary Bleemer; Sarah Quincy |
| Abstract: | Going to college has consistently conferred a large wage premium. We show that the relative premium received by lower-income Americans has halved since 1960. We decompose this steady rise in ‘collegiate regressivity’ using dozens of survey and administrative datasets documenting 1900–2020 wage premiums and the composition and value-added of collegiate institutions and majors. Three factors explain 80 percent of collegiate regressivity’s growth. First, the teaching-oriented public universities where lower-income students are concentrated have relatively declined in funding, retention, and economic value since 1960. Second, lower-income students have been disproportionately diverted into community and for-profit colleges since 1980 and 1990, respectively. Third, higher-income students’ falling humanities enrollment and rising computer science enrollment since 2000 have increased their degrees’ value. Selection into college-going and across four-year universities are second-order. College-going provided equitable returns before 1960, but collegiate regressivity now curtails higher education’s potential to reduce inequality and mediates 25 percent of intergenerational income transmission. |
| JEL: | I23 I26 J62 N32 |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33797 |
| By: | Michaela Kreyenfeld; Sarah Schmauk; Katharina Wrohlich; Daniel Brüggmann |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the gendered impact of divorce on earnings and the role of the social policy context in shaping this relationship. In particular, it focuses on a policy reform enacted in Germany in 2008 that overturned previous ex-spousal support rules. Data come from the administrative records of the German Public Pension Fund. Drawing on a fixed- effects model, we study the behaviour of women and men who separated between 2004 and 2011 (n=21, 617 divorces). We find that women's earnings increased throughout the divorce process. This effect was slightly more pronounced after the reform than before. In contrast to women's earnings, men's earnings declined throughout the divorce process. The reform seems to have somewhat mitigated this negative divorce effect. The paper also shows heterogeneous effects across regions. While divorce had strong effects on women's and men's earnings in West Germany, it did not change the earning patterns of East German men and women either before or after the reform. The paper concludes by discussing avenues for post- separation policies from a gender perspective. |
| Keywords: | Divorce, earnings, employment, gender, policy reform |
| JEL: | J12 J22 K36 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp2125 |
| By: | Paolo Croce (Bank of Italy, Economics, Statistics and Research DG, Economic History Division); Matteo Filippi (University of Zurich); Paolo Piselli (Bank of Italy); Andrea Ramazzotti (Università di Napoli Federico II and CSEF) |
| Abstract: | Internal migration facilitates an efficient allocation of labor within the economy, but are its sending and receiving areas affected differently? We address this question through the lens of Italy during the Golden Age (1950s-1970s), a period of population reshuffling with no parallel in the country’s history. Exploiting detailed spatial data on migratory flows, we can characterize the impact of short- and long-distance migration on economic development and structural change in the provinces of origin and destination. To tackle endogeneity of migration flows, we build on recent advances in the shift-share IVs literature: we interact past interwar government-authorized migrations with employment growth during the Golden Age to estimate exogenous short-distance migrations; origin-destination railway distances with provinces’ employment growth for long-distance ones. We find that short-distance emigration negatively affected origin provinces’ value added per capita mostly through lower business creation and productivity, while it determined even larger productivity gains in destination provinces. Similarly, although short-distance immigration boosted structural change away from agriculture in favor of the industrial sector, emigration curbs it in the provinces of origin, by reducing employment, value added and productivity in industry. We do not find comparably strong results for long-distance flows, which are shown to negatively affect origin provinces mostly through the employment rate, while the effects on productivity are limited; receiving provinces are also not as affected. We attribute the difference between short and long-distance effects to selection by type of migrants, where the most productive ones tend to favor nearby destinations. |
| Keywords: | Internal migration, Regional development, Economic growth |
| JEL: | J61 N14 O12 O15 |
| Date: | 2025–06–14 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sef:csefwp:751 |
| By: | Zhao Jin; Amir Kermani; Timothy McQuade |
| Abstract: | We examine the performance of startups co-founded by immigrant and native teams. Leveraging unique data linking startups to founders' and employees' employment and education histories, we find native-migrant teams outperform native-only and migrant-only teams. Native-migrant startups have larger employment three years after founding, are more likely to secure funding, access larger funding rounds, and achieve more successful exits. An instrumental variables strategy based on native shares in university-degree programs confirms native-migrant teams are larger and more likely to receive funding. Superior access to diverse labor pools, successful VCs, and expanded product markets are key factors in driving native-migrant outperformance. |
| JEL: | F22 G24 L26 M13 O32 |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33804 |
| By: | Rachel Kranton; Duncan Thomas |
| Abstract: | Why do workers exert effort at their tasks and what are the implications for their well-being when greater effort is necessary? This paper, which studies university employees during the Covid-19 pandemic, provides empirical evidence that identity – in terms of both the importance of work to employees’ sense of self and the extent to which their employer shares their values – is related to both effort and productivity. Those employees who feel work is important to them and feel the university does not share their values report exerting more effort but accomplishing less, relative to a pre-pandemic benchmark. Furthermore, all these factors are associated with employee’s reported mental health. Stress and anxiety are particularly elevated for employees for whom work is important and who feel the employer does not share their values, with similar patterns for depression symptoms and worse overall mental health relative to pre-pandemic. These relationships hold across job roles (faculty vs. staff) and the number of co-resident children. The research suggests a new direction in the study of incentives and organizations: links between non-pecuniary motivations and work-related mental health. |
| JEL: | D2 D9 I1 |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33812 |
| By: | Anna Laura Baraldi; Claudia Cantabene; Alessandro De Iudicibus; Giovanni Fosco; Erasmo Papagni |
| Abstract: | This paper examines how natural disasters shape electoral preferences by analyzing the impact of earthquakes in Italy between 1990 and 2019. Using a staggered Difference-in-Differences design, we estimate that affected municipalities are more likely to elect female, more educated, and older city councilors. Similar shifts occur for mayors. These effects persist across election cycles and are robust to alternative specifications. We rule out competing explanations such as changes in turnout or candidate supply. The findings suggest that crises push voters to favor politicians perceived as more competent, experienced, and prosocial. |
| Keywords: | Natural disasters; Electoral behavior; Local elections; Political seÂlection; Gender and representation; Earthquakes; Difference-in-Differences; Voter preferences |
| JEL: | D72 H84 J16 C23 O15 |
| Date: | 2025–06–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eei:rpaper:eeri_rp_2025_06 |
| By: | David Bernal; Gustavo A. García; Jorge Pérez Pérez |
| Abstract: | We propose a methodology to calculate the mismatch between places of work and places of residence that incorporates monetary and opportunity transportation costs while correcting for possible overestimation of job accessibility. This methodology enables the analysis of spatiotemporal changes in spatial mismatch without discarding data from spatial units that change over time. We apply the methodology to measure spatial mismatch in Medellín, Colombia, for public and private transportation from 2012 to 2017. In line with previous work, our results indicate that including transportation and opportunity costs leads to a more realistic measure of job availability. Despite investments in public transportation and infrastructure, spatial mismatch in Medellín increased between 2012 and 2017. Our analysis shows that job accesibility through private transport decreased more than through public transport, and that the expansion of the latter in Medellín may have mitigated spatial mismatch. |
| Keywords: | Spatial Mismatch;Job Accessibility;Travel Times;Transport Costs;Public and Private Transport |
| JEL: | J61 R41 R42 |
| Date: | 2025–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdm:wpaper:2025-09 |
| By: | Judith Scott-Clayton; Irwin Garfinkel; Elizabeth Ananat; Sophie M. Collyer; Robert Paul Hartley; Anastasia Koutavas; Buyi Wang; Christopher Wimer |
| Abstract: | In 2015, the City University of New York (CUNY) launched a new program— Accelerate, Complete, and Engage (ACE)—aimed at improving college graduation rates. A randomized-control evaluation of the program found a nearly 12 percentage point increase in graduation five years after college entry. Using this impact estimate and national data on earnings by gender, age, and degree status; we estimate incremental expected long-run benefits and costs for participants, as well as intergenerational effects for the children of participants, relative to “business as usual” for the control group. Our main estimate indicates net social benefits of more than $48, 000 over a lifetime per participant from greater earnings and labor force attachment, improvements in health, and savings in public transfers. A major contribution of our analysis is the estimation of second-generational benefits. Including intergenerational benefits for children who grow up in newly higher-earning families nearly triples this estimate, to over $130, 000 in net social benefits per participant. These results are sensitive to assumptions about whether the impact on graduation after five years persists indefinitely, or whether the control group eventually catches up. Still, net social benefits are strongly positive even under our most conservative assumptions. |
| JEL: | D61 I23 I26 |
| Date: | 2025–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33956 |
| By: | Marika Cabral; Marcus Dillender |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes the importance of doctor discretion in medical evaluations. Leveraging comprehensive administrative data and random assignment of doctors to evaluations in workers’ compensation insurance, we identify the scope for doctor discretion in medical evaluations of injured workers and the impacts of this discretion on later claimant outcomes. Our analysis indicates there is wide variation across doctors in medical evaluations, these decisions are consequential for later claimant outcomes, and doctor effects vary systematically by observed doctor characteristics. In addition, we analyze the relationship between doctor effects in medical evaluations and market allocation when claimants can select their own doctors. Our findings suggest both claimants and insurers influence the allocation of doctors in line with their respective incentives, indicating market forces shape the distribution of program benefits. Finally, we conclude with supplemental counterfactual analysis and discussion of the policy implications of these findings. |
| JEL: | H0 I11 J0 |
| Date: | 2025–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33988 |
| By: | Daniel Reiter (University of Graz, Austria); Stefania Rossi (University of Graz, Austria); Leonita Mazrekaj (Haxhi Zeka University, Kosovo) |
| Abstract: | Despite ongoing progress, women continue to show lower entrepreneurial activity compared to men, highlighting the need for further efforts to close the gender gap and enhance women's economic participation. This study examines the drivers of gender differences in Total Early-Stage Entrepreneurial Activity (TEA), with a focus on the roles of self-perceived abilities and educational attainment. Using a unique dataset of 399, 114 observations from 64 countries (2013-2017), we employ Partial Least Squares Structural Equation Modeling (PLS-SEM) to explore how an entrepreneurial mindset - defined as self-perceived entrepreneurial abilities - mediates the gender gap in entrepreneurship. The analysis incorporates the moderating effect of educational attainment and controls for micro-level characteristics as well as economic and socio-political variables. Our results confirm that women engage in TEA at lower rates than men. However, this gap narrows significantly when accounting for an entrepreneurial mindset, particularly among individuals with lower educational attainment. Among the highly educated, the mediating effect is weaker, suggesting that structural factors - such as access to networks and resources - may play a more prominent role. These findings deepen our understanding of gender disparities in entrepreneurship and offer valuable implications for policy interventions aimed at promoting more inclusive entrepreneurial environments and greater female economic participation. |
| Keywords: | Total Early-Stage Entrepreneurial Activity (TEA), Gender, Self-Perceived Abilities, Educational Attainment, Partial Least Squares Structural Equation Modeling (PLS-SEM), Moderated Mediation Analysis |
| JEL: | L26 E24 J24 J16 C30 J28 |
| Date: | 2025–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:grz:wpaper:2025-09 |