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on Labour Economics |
| By: | René Böheim; David Pichler; Christine Zulehner |
| Abstract: | We examine how parental and local factors shape the gender pay gap between daughters and sons. Maternal labor market attachment significantly reduces gender disparities as it increases daughters' earnings in adulthood relative to that of sons. We find that maternal employment has minimal effects on pre-parenthood earnings gaps. However, it substantially mitigates post-parenthood disparities as daughters return to the labour market more quickly after childbirth. Paternal employment in manufacturing and construction is linked to larger gender pay gaps and lower likelihoods of sons taking paternity leave. At the municipal level, higher female employment rates and education levels are associated with narrower gender gaps, whereas conservative norms and manufacturing employment exacerbate them. |
| Keywords: | intergenerational mobility, gender wage gap, regional labor markets, gender norms |
| JEL: | J13 J16 J31 J62 |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:jku:econwp:2025-05 |
| By: | Zainab Iftikhar (University of Bonn & CEPR); Anna Zaharieva (Bielefeld University) |
| Abstract: | In this study we evaluate the effects of low-skilled immigration on small businesses, wages and employment in Germany. We develop a search and matching model with heterogeneous workers, cross-skill matching, and endogenous entry into entrepreneurship. The model is calibrated using German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP) data. Quantitative analysis shows that low-skilled immigration benefits high-skilled workers while negatively affecting the welfare of low-skilled workers. It leads to the endogenous expansion of immigrant entrepreneurial activities, generating positive spillovers for all demographic groups except native entrepreneurs. Overall, there is a marginal loss to the economy in terms of per worker welfare. This loss is mitigated with increased skilled migration from India. Policies restricting immigrant entrepreneurship relax competition for native small businesses but reduce welfare for all other worker groups. Ethnic segregation of small businesses benefits low-skill native entrepreneurs. |
| Keywords: | Entrepreneurship, small business, self-employment, search frictions, immigration |
| JEL: | J23 J31 J61 J64 L26 |
| Date: | 2025–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ajk:ajkdps:358 |
| By: | Hackmann, Martin (University of California, Los Angeles); Heining, Jörg (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany); Klimke, Roman (Harvard University); Polyakova, Maria (Stanford University); Seibert, Holger (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany) |
| Abstract: | "We leverage decades of administrative data and quasi-experimental variation in the introduction of universal long-term care (LTC) insurance in Germany in 1995 to examine whether health insurance expansions can stimulate local economies. We find that the LTC insurance rollout led not only to sizeable growth of the target LTC sector, but also to an aggregate fall in unemployment and an increase in the labor force participation. Quantitatively, a 10 percentage point increase in the share of insured LTC patients led to 4 more nursing home workers per 1, 000 individuals age 65 and older (12 percent increase). Wages did not rise in the LTC sector or other sectors of the economy. The quality of newly hired nursing home workers declined, but this had no negative effect on old-age life expectancy. Overall, the insurance expansion brought lower-skilled workers into new jobs rather than reallocating workers away from other productive sectors. Our marginal value of public funds (MVPF) analysis suggests that the reform paid for itself when taking the positive fiscal externalities in the labor market into account. To understand which market primitives underpin our findings and to inform the external validity of our results, we develop and estimate a general model of labor markets with product-market subsidies in the presence of wedges, such as income taxes. Our model simulations show that the aggregate welfare effects of insurance expansions are theoretically ambiguous and depend centrally on the magnitude of frictions in input markets." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en)) |
| Keywords: | Bundesrepublik Deutschland ; IAB-Open-Access-Publikation ; Auswirkungen ; Beschäftigungseffekte ; Einkommenseffekte ; Erwerbsbeteiligung ; Arbeitslosigkeitsentwicklung ; Integrierte Erwerbsbiografien ; Altenpflege ; Altenpflegehelfer ; Altenpfleger ; Niedrigqualifizierte ; öffentliche Einnahmen ; Pflegeversicherung ; Sozialabgaben ; Steueraufkommen ; 1975-2008 |
| JEL: | D58 H00 H51 I00 I31 I38 J14 J23 J64 J08 I13 |
| Date: | 2025–03–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iab:iabdpa:202503 |
| By: | Marco Pecoraro; Bruno Lanz; Didier Ruedin |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the short- to long-term effects of large-scale refugee inflows on labour markets and anti-asylum attitudes. Using the exogenous arrival of Yugoslav refugees to Switzerland in the 1990s and municipal-level data with an instrumental variables strategy, we find that refugee exposure increased unemployment and anti-asylum voting in the short term. Over a decade later, the refugee shock is no longer correlated with unemployment, whereas anti-asylum attitudes not only decline but reverse in areas with higher initial exposure, notably in rural municipalities. These results highlight the temporary nature of labour market disruptions and the longer-term shift in anti-asylum attitudes consistent with contact theory. |
| Keywords: | Refugees, Forced Migration, Unemployment, Labour Market Effects, Anti-Asylum Attitudes, Voting Behaviour, Contact Theory |
| JEL: | J61 J68 D72 F22 J15 |
| Date: | 2025–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:irn:wpaper:25-03 |
| By: | René Böheim; David Pichler |
| Abstract: | This study analyzes earnings volatility in Austria from 1980 to 2018, providing a comprehensive view of individual income instability and its demographic and structural determinants. Using administrative data, we examine volatility trends by gender, age, earnings deciles, and employment interruptions. We find that earnings volatility has increased over time, with employment interruptions as a major driver, particularly among employees in low-skill sectors and the lower earnings deciles. Additionally, we observe significant gender differences, with women experiencing higher volatility, often linked to childbirth and family-related career interruptions. Through variance decomposition, we attribute the greater share of volatility to demographic changes, including the impact of migration, sectoral shifts, and the growing labor force participation of women. |
| Keywords: | earnings volatility, employment interruptions, labor market dynamics |
| JEL: | D31 E24 J13 J31 J62 |
| Date: | 2025–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:jku:econwp:2025-04 |
| By: | Louise Devos (-) |
| Abstract: | Regional mobility is crucial for addressing labour shortages, as jobseekers from one region may fill vacancies in another region with few local candidates. However, this requires a willingness amongst employers to consider candidates from across regional borders. This study examines the influence of regional identity on hiring decisions in the Belgian labour market, focusing on perceptions of Flemish recruiters towards Flemish and Walloon candidates. Through a state-of-the-art vignette experiment, genuine Flemish recruiters evaluated fictitious resumes of school leavers that signalled regional identity through their name, place of birth, residential address, secondary school location, and/or language proficiency. Walloon candidates consistently score lower on key hiring metrics. Structural equation modelling reveals that Flemish employers hold negative perceptions of Walloon candidates, particularly regarding availability, interpersonal competency, attitude, and willingness of employers, employees, and clients to cooperate with them. These findings highlight the persistent role of regional identity stereotypes in reinforcing labour market inequalities and impeding mobility as a strategy to mitigate labour market tightness. |
| Keywords: | labour market, regional mobility, culture, perceptions, discrimination, Belgium |
| JEL: | J61 J68 J71 |
| Date: | 2025–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rug:rugwps:25/1114 |
| By: | Hassan Afrouzi (Columbia University); Andrés Esteban Blanco (FRB Atlanta); Andrés Drenik (UT Austin); Erik Hust (Chicago Booth) |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we develop a model that combines elements of modern macro labor theories with nominal wage rigidities to study the consequences of unexpected inflation on the labor market. The slow and costly adjustment of real wages within a match after a burst of inflation incentivizes workers to engage in job-to-job transitions. Such dynamics after a surge in inflation lead to a rise in aggregate vacancies relative to unemployment, associating a seemingly tight labor market with lower average real wages. Calibrating with pre-2020 data, we show the model can simultaneously match the trends in worker flows and wage changes during the 2021-2024 period. Using historical data, we further show that prior periods of high inflation were also associated with an increase in vacancies and an upward shift in the Beveridge curve. Finally, we show that other “hot labor market” theories that can cause an increase in the aggregate vacancy-to-unemployment rate have implications that are inconsistent with the worker flows and wage dynamics observed during the recent inflationary period. Collectively, our calibrated model implies that the recent inflation in the United States, all else equal, reduced the welfare of workers through real wage declines and other costly actions, providing a model-driven reason why workers report they dislike inflation. |
| Keywords: | Inflation, Vacancies, Job-to-Job Flows, Beveridge Curve, Wage Growth |
| JEL: | E24 E31 J31 J63 |
| Date: | 2025–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aoz:wpaper:358 |
| By: | Gert Bijnens (Economics and Research Department, National Bank of Belgium); Sam Desiere (Ghent University); Tiziano Toniolo (IRES/LIDAM, UCLouvain) |
| Abstract: | Policies supporting small businesses are popular among policymakers but often criticised by economists for their potential to distort the economy. This paper provides a comprehensive evaluation of a unique policy that subsidises the first employee. Empirically, we find that the policy led to a surge in the number of firms employing exactly one employee, without a noticeable effect on the number of firms with two or more employees. A simple frictionless general equilibrium model of occupational choices predicts the empirical facts remarkably well. Leveraging our model, we show that the general equilibrium effects on wages and aggregate output are likely to be small. However, the policy is expensive. Our findings support the traditional view that size-dependent subsidies distort the optimal allocation of resources.. |
| Keywords: | size-dependent policies; firm entry; small firms; wage subsidies; payroll taxes. |
| JEL: | D22 H25 J08 L25 L26 |
| Date: | 2025–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbb:reswpp:202503-473 |
| By: | David Albouy; R. Jason Faberman |
| Abstract: | We examine sorting behavior across metropolitan areas by skill over individuals’ life cycles. We show that high-skill workers disproportionately sort into high-amenity areas, but do so relatively early in life. Workers of all skill levels tend to move towards lower-amenity areas during their thirties and forties. Consequently, individuals’ time use and expenditures on activities related to local amenities are U-shaped over the life cycle. This contrasts with well-documented life-cycle consumption profiles, which have an opposite inverted-U shape. We present evidence that the move towards lower-amenity (and lower-cost) metropolitan areas is driven by changes in the number of household children over the life cycle: individuals, particularly the college educated, tend to move towards lower-amenity areas after having their first child. We develop an equilibrium model of location choice, labor supply, and amenity consumption and introduce life-cycle changes in household composition that affect leisure preferences, consumption choices, and required home production time. Key to the model is a complementarity between leisure time spent going out and local amenities, which we estimate to be large and significant. Ignoring this complementarity and the distinction between types of leisure misses the dampening effect child rearing has on urban agglomeration. Since the value of local amenities is capitalized into housing prices, individuals will tend to move to lower-cost locations to avoid paying for amenities they are not consuming. |
| Keywords: | Labor and demographic economics; urban migration |
| JEL: | J30 J61 R23 |
| Date: | 2025–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedhwp:99675 |
| By: | Bucci, Alberto; Prettner, Klaus |
| Abstract: | Fertility rates have declined dramatically across almost all highincome countries over the past decades. This has raised concerns about future economic prospects. Indeed, fully- and semi-endogenous growth models imply that a shrinking workforce would lead to declining income growth and perhaps even stagnation. We extend the previous analyses to explicitly incorporate an endogenous quantity/quality trade-off between fertility and human capital accumulation. This allows us to assess the extent to which a declining number of workers can be compensated by increasing education. Our analysis demonstrates that economic growth needs not necessarily to decline with a falling population. Under certain conditions, human capital investment can sustain technological progress and economic growth despite the demographic challenges we are facing. |
| Keywords: | Demographic Change, Fertility Decline, Economic Growth, Research and Development, Endogenous Fertility, Endogenous Education, Human Capital Accumulation |
| JEL: | J11 J13 O33 O41 I25 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:1585 |
| By: | Paula Scholz (University of Cologne) |
| Abstract: | This study investigates how salary differences, gender stereotypes and prior leadership experience influence the willingness to pursue leadership roles. Using a controlled laboratory experiment, I focus on communication and coordination responsibilities of leaders. In the experiment, subjects are randomly assigned to leadership positions in a public goods game in which the leader communicates with and coordinates the team. Afterwards, I elicit the willingness to pay to become the leader varying whether the position comes with a low or high salary. I find that women have a substantially lower willingness to pay to attain the leadership position compared to men if and only if it comes with a high salary. Despite women being equally effective team leaders as men, belief elicitation shows that high salaries shift leadership roles from being perceived as stereotypical female to stereotypical male. This stereotypical perception of associating a highly paid leader with men translates into subjects' willingness to pay to attain the position. Exogenous exposure to leadership roles does not reduce the gender application gap, suggesting that experience alone cannot overcome instilled stereotypes. |
| Keywords: | Gender, Leadership, Stereotypes, Behavioral Decision Making |
| JEL: | C91 D83 J16 M21 M51 |
| Date: | 2025–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ajk:ajkdps:359 |
| By: | Drake, Samielle (Department of Economics, Umeå University) |
| Abstract: | This study examines the impact of local market concentration on the participation and success of small and medium enterprises (SMEs) in Swedish municipal cleaning service procurement auctions. A 10 percentage point reduction in the joint market share of the four largest firms (CR4), while maintaining a constant Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI), results in a 7.5% increase in SME participation and raises the likelihood of an SME winning by 2.4%. Furthermore, the 2014 revisions to the EU public procurement directives mitigated the adverse effects of market concentration. However, despite the increase in participation, there is no evidence that the success rates of SMEs improved following the implementation of the revised EU directives. |
| Keywords: | Public Procurement; Market Concentration; SMEs; Competition; Regulations |
| JEL: | D44 H57 L13 L33 |
| Date: | 2025–03–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:umnees:1034 |
| By: | Jose Barrales-Ruiz (Center of Economics for Sustainable Development (CEDES), Faculty of Economics and Government, Universidad San Sebastian, Chile.); Ivan Mendieta-Muñoz (Department of Economics, University of Utah, USA); Codrina Rada (Department of Economics, University of Utah, USA); Rudiger von Arnim (Department of Economics, University of Utah, USA) |
| Abstract: | The literature on the empirical linkages between economic growth (or other measures of macroeconomic performance) and the functional distribution of income is copious on the short run. The sustained and simultaneous decline in average rates of real GDP growth and the labor share of income in the US in recent decades has led to renewed interest in the long run, in light of the hypothesis of inequality-induced secular stagnation. This paper employs a vector error correction model with time-varying parameters and stochastic volatility to estimate the long run interaction between real GDP growth, labor share and the unemployment rate. Our key result indicates that a lower labor share is associated with a decline in the growth rate: economic growth is wage-led in the long run. |
| Keywords: | Growth and distribution; stagnation; demand regime |
| JEL: | C32 E12 E25 E32 O40 |
| Date: | 2025–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:new:wpaper:2505 |
| By: | Etienne Dagorn; Elena Claudia Meroni; Léonard Moulin |
| Abstract: | This paper provides descriptive evidence on how the COVID-19 pandemic influenced secondary school students’ application patterns to higher education in France, offering insights into the reallocation of preferences across academic fields and degree types. Using detailed administrative data, we document significant shifts in application shares during 2021, with increased interest in competitive tracks and concurrent declines in applications to bachelor’s and vocational programs. These findings suggest that students responded to the pandemic by favoring structured and selective pathways with clear labor market prospects, while moving away from generalist degrees. Students’ share of applications to STEM degrees increased, while applications to health and business programs remained stable. At the same time, analyzing the probability of applying to at least one program in a given field or degree reveals a decline in application diversification, as students concentrated their choices in fewer fields, reflecting a more risk-averse and selective approach in response to the pandemic. Our analysis highlights substantial heterogeneity in these effects across demographic groups. |
| Keywords: | Higher education, students, university application, choice, study programs, academic fields, Parcoursup, Covid-19 pandemic, France, ENSEIGNEMENT SUPERIEUR / HIGHER EDUCATION, FRANCE / FRANCE, CHOIX / CHOICE |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:idg:wpaper:ulmz2jub4xmgdo9y0l0a |
| By: | Arsène Perrot (Gran Sasso Science Institute); Fabiano Compagnucci (Gran Sasso Science Institute); Paolo Veneri (Gran Sasso Science Institute) |
| Abstract: | This paper assesses the impact of local exposure to robots on the physical health of workers and the broader population’s mental health across Italian provinces. The empirical analysis relies on data from the International Federation of Robotics to build a measure of robot penetration at the provincial level, combined with provincial-level data on workplace accidents and mental health issues provided by Italian agencies for work insurance and statistics, respectively. Our results, derived from a set of linear and non-linear models and instrumental variable approaches, highlight that robotisation has reduced the number of accidents in the workplace. At the same time, robotisation is associated with an increase in mental disorders in the local population. The effects are strongly heterogeneous across places, with large metropolitan areas experiencing a relatively greater reduction in accidents and lower prevalence of mental health issues compared to other provinces, potentially exacerbating long-standing regional well-being disparities. |
| Keywords: | Automation; Robotisation; Workers’ health; Mental health; Regional disparities |
| JEL: | I10 J01 R10 |
| Date: | 2025–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ahy:wpaper:wp63 |
| By: | Berlinschi, Ruxanda; Verhaest, Dieter; Poelmans, Eline; Adriaenssens, Stef |
| Abstract: | This study documents self-selection on human capital for Ukrainian refugees. We compare the socio-demographic characteristics of a representative sample of Ukrainian refugees who registered in Belgium in the fall of 2022 with those of the Ukrainian population before the war. Contrarily to previous studies, we find negative self-selection on human capital, particularly for men and for refugees arriving from the low conflict intensity regions of Ukraine. At the same time, refugees from the low conflict intensity regions arrive with more locally-specific human capital, such as knowledge of the French language, previous visits to Belgium, and access to social networks in Belgium. Such self-selection, driven by individual incentives - economic and patriotic - has societal benefits, such as reduced brain drain for Ukraine and improved job matching in European countries offering protection. |
| Keywords: | Russia-Ukraine war, refugees, human capital, self-selection |
| JEL: | F22 F5 H12 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:1591 |
| By: | Alessia Matano (AQR-IREA, University of Barcelona and Università di Roma “La Sapienza”); Paolo Naticchioni (Roma Tre University and IZA) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the relationship between China’s import competition and the innovation strategies of domestic firms. Using firm level data from Italy spanning 2005-2010 and employing IV fixed effects estimation techniques, we find that the impact of China’s import competition on innovation varies depending on the type of goods imported (intermediate vs. final). Specifically, imports of final goods boost both product and process innovation, while imports of intermediate goods reduce both. Additionally, we extend the analysis to consider the role of unions in moderating these responses. We find that, in unionized firms, imports' impact on innovation is mitigated, specifically to protect workers' employment prospects |
| Keywords: | China’s Import Competition, Final and Intermediate Goods, Product and Process Innovation, Unions, IV Fixed effects estimations. JEL classification: C33, L25, F14, F60, O30, J50 |
| Date: | 2025–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aqr:wpaper:202501 |
| By: | Vivarelli, Marco; Piva, Mariacristina; Tani, Massimiliano |
| Abstract: | Labor mobility is considered a powerful channel to acquire external knowledge and trigger complementarities in the innovation and R&D investment strategies; however, the extant literature has focused on either scientists’ mobility or migration of high-skilled workers, while virtually no attention has been devoted to the possible role of short-term business visits. Using a unique and novel database originating a country/sector unbalanced panel over the period 1998-2019 (for a total of 8, 316 longitudinal observations), this paper aims to fill this gap by testing the impact of BVs on R&D investment. Results from GMM-SYS estimates show that short-term mobility positively and significantly affects R&D investments; moreover, our findings indicate - as expected - that the beneficial impact of BVs is particularly significant in less innovative countries and in less innovative industries. These outcomes justify some form of support for BVs within the portfolio of the effective innovation policies, both at the national and local level. |
| JEL: | O31 O32 O15 J61 |
| Date: | 2025–04–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unm:unumer:2025010 |
| By: | Cécile Bonneau (Paris School of Economics et Ecole Normale Supérieure); Sébastien Grobon (Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne & Conseil d'Orientation des Retraites (COR)) |
| Abstract: | This paper offers new stylized facts on inequality of enrollment in higher education according to parental income in France. On average, an increment of 10 percentiles in the parental income distribution is associated with a 5.8 percentage-point increase in the proportion of individuals entering higher education. This degree of inequality is strikingly close to that observed in the United States. We identify potential explanatory factors behind this similar degree of inequality in two markedly different institutional contexts. We then explore one consequence of enrollment disparities, assessing the distribution of spending on higher education |
| Keywords: | Higher education; Parental Income; Expenditures; Human Capital; Resource Allocation; France |
| JEL: | H52 I2 J62 |
| Date: | 2025–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mse:cesdoc:25004 |
| By: | Ricardo B. Ang III (Department of Economics, Tulane University); Giseong Kim (Department of Economics, Georgia State University); Soojin Kim (Department of Economics, Georgia State University); Michael F. Pesko (Department of Economics, University of Missouri) |
| Abstract: | We examine the impact of automation on workers’ health risks. We first document that automation leads to a divergence in the severity of occupational health risks: while automation reduces nonfatal occupational injury incidence, it increases fatal injury incidence. Secondly, the disparity of health risks across age groups has widened due to automation. The overall hospitalizations have declined in commuting zones with higher automation exposure. Yet, the benefits are concentrated among young workers, while middle-aged workers experience increased hospitalizations, particularly due to despair-related conditions. Combining the occupational injury estimates, a back-of-the-envelope calculation suggests that workplace automation provides significant, health-driven economic benefits. |
| Keywords: | Automation, Workplace injury, Health Risks, Fatalities, Mental health |
| JEL: | I1 O3 J1 |
| Date: | 2025–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:umc:wpaper:2503 |