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on Labour Economics |
| By: | Balgova, Maria (Bank of England); Illing, Hannah (University of Bonn) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the differential impact of job displacement on migrants and natives. Using administrative data for Germany from 1997-2016, we identify mass layoffs and estimate the trajectory of earnings and employment of observationally similar migrants and natives displaced from the same establishment. Despite similar pre-layoff careers, migrants lose an additional 9% of their earnings in the first 5 years after displacement. This gap arises from both lower re-employment probabilities and post-layoff wages and is not driven by selective return migration. Key mechanisms include sorting into lower-quality firms and depending on lower-quality coworker networks during job search. |
| Keywords: | immigration, job displacement, job search |
| JEL: | J62 J63 J64 |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17496 |
| By: | De Quinto, Alicia (Universidad Autónoma de Madrid); González, Libertad (Universitat Pompeu Fabra) |
| Abstract: | Countries often encourage part-time work among new parents as part of their family policies, aiming to foster mothers' labor market attachment. However, this approach may unintentionally impede women's long-term career prospects. We examine the impact of a 1999 Spanish reform that allowed parents to reduce their working hours by up to a half while their youngest child was under age 6, along with job protection measures. Leveraging eligibility rules, we follow a regression kink design, comparing ineligible women to mothers who had varying lengths of eligibility, and tracking their subsequent work trajectories. Our findings show that longer eligibility led to a modest increase in maternal part-time work during her child's early years, with mothers working approximately one additional day part-time for each extra month of eligibility. This increase in part-time work substituted for days spent in unemployment rather than reducing full-time work, leading to a rise in earnings. In the long term, extended eligibility also led to improvements in both employment and earnings. Overall, we find that the policy had a positive impact on the labor supply and earnings of women with children, both in the short and long term. |
| Keywords: | worktime reduction, maternity, childcare policies |
| JEL: | J08 J13 J16 J18 |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17509 |
| By: | Matthias Collischon; Kamila Cygan-Rehm; Regina T. Riphahn |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates whether incentives generated by public policies contribute to motherhood penalties. Specifically, we study the consequences of subsidized small jobs, the German Minijobs, which are frequently taken up by first-time mothers upon labor market return. Using a combination of propensity score matching and an event study applied to administrative data, we compare the long-run child penalties of mothers who started out in a Minijob employment versus unsubsidized employment or non-employment after birth. We find persistent differences between the Minijobbers and otherwise employed mothers up to 10 years after the first birth, which suggests adverse unintended consequences of the small jobs subsidy program for maternal earnings and pensions. |
| Keywords: | motherhood penalty, small job subsidies, Minijobs, maternal employment, labor market policy, propensity score matching |
| JEL: | J22 J13 J18 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11508 |
| By: | D'hert, Liam (Ghent University); Lippens, Louis (Ghent University); Baert, Stijn (Ghent University) |
| Abstract: | Sustaining social security systems amidst an ageing population requires (re)integrating the unemployed and inactive into work. However, stigma surrounding non-employment history can create barriers to finding a job. Whilst unemployment stigma is well-documented, inactivity stigma remains under the radar. To address whether, why, and when inactivity hinders hiring, we employed a vignette experiment where real-life recruiters rated fictitious applicants with varying non-employment breaks on hireability and productivity. Results reveal employers rank candidates by their reason for being out of work: those with training breaks rank highest, followed by former caregivers, the previously ill and the unemployed, and last, the discouraged. Productivity perceptions match this pattern. Trainees score highest for skills, motivation, cognition, discipline, reliability, flexibility, and trainability. Caregivers excel in perceived social skills but fall short on flexibility. The previously ill are seen as more motivated than the unemployed but likely raise health concerns. The discouraged trigger the harshest stigma, particularly for motivation and self-discipline. Longer lapses hurt hiring chances, but not for training breaks. |
| Keywords: | career break, unemployment, inactivity, hiring chances, factorial survey experiment |
| JEL: | C91 E24 J21 J64 |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17497 |
| By: | Tiago Leitão (NOVA SBE Economics Club, MSc Economics); Laura Bartolomeu (NOVA SBE Economics Club, MSc Economics); Francesca di Biase (NOVA SBE Economics Club, MSc Economics) |
| Abstract: | This research project aims to investigate the impact of post-displacement job mobility on wage dynamics for displaced workers (i.e. workers who lost their jobs due to firm closures) in the Portuguese labor market. The study utilizes a nationally representative matched employer-employee dataset and a multi-dimensional fixed effects event study model to estimate the differences in wage trajectories for displaced workers who experience post-displacement occupational, industrial and geographic mobility compared to the displaced workers who do not. The findings reveal that changes in job title significantly impact wage trajectories, with workers experiencing occupational mobility facing significantly worse outcomes even five to six years after displacement. Geographical mobility also shows negative effects, particularly for women. However, no significant differences are found for workers who move from one industry to another. This study contributes to the existing literature on factors impacting wage dynamics and provides insights valuable for individual career choices and governmental policy-making. |
| Keywords: | Displacement; Job Mobility; Wage Dynamics; Multi-Dimensional Fixed Effects |
| JEL: | J61 J62 |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mde:wpaper:188 |
| By: | Natalia Bermúdez-Barrezueta; Sam Desiere; Giulia Tarullo (-) |
| Abstract: | This paper evaluates a hiring subsidy for lower-educated youths in Flanders (Belgium) that reduced labour costs by approximately 13% for a period of two years, starting in 2016. Using a donut Regression Discontinuity Design, we find no evidence that the subsidy improved the job finding rate of eligible job seekers in 2016-19, a period marked by a tight labour market. We then investigate the role of temporary work agencies, which disproportionately employ the target group and obtain 25% to 34% of the subsidies. Using Difference-in-Differences regressions, we demonstrate that agencies did not raise wages of eligible agency workers in response to the policy. Remarkably, despite a 3.3% labour cost reduction, full-time equivalent employment of eligible workers in these agencies decreased by 9.2% over the three years following the reform. Our findings highlight how an active labour market policy affects agency employment. |
| Keywords: | hiring subsidy, temporary work agencies, youth employment, ALMP |
| JEL: | J08 J23 J53 J64 J68 |
| Date: | 2025–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rug:rugwps:25/1103 |
| By: | Rebecca Jack; Daniel Tennenbaum; Brenden Timpe |
| Abstract: | We document the dynamics of career paths around parenthood, capturing worker advancement within firms and across firms of differing pay. Using a new linkage between administrative data on U.S. workers’ fertility and labor-market histories, we show that the parental earnings gap is partly explained by mothers transitioning to lower-paying firms. Firm downgrading is driven by parents who take an extended absence from the labor force. Mothers who move to lower-paying firms see improved job amenities, but less generous fringe benefits. The firm’s contribution to the parental earnings gap rises over time and reaches one-third by the child’s 11th birthday. |
| Keywords: | Gender; gender earnings gap; Firms |
| JEL: | J20 J30 J16 |
| Date: | 2025–01–15 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedmoi:99456 |
| By: | Kesternich, Iris (KU Leuven); Vermeulen, Frederic (KU Leuven); Wintzéus, Alexander (KU Leuven) |
| Abstract: | Flexible work schedules and telecommuting may help to improve the combination of work and family. An open question is whether job flexibility can increase the well-being of the children, which depends on parental time spent on childcare. We propose a rich collective model describing the intrahousehold allocation of time and money treating children's well-being as a domestically produced good. Job flexibility may influence this domestic production process as a production shifter, capturing that flexible jobs can ease constraints on childcare time. We apply our model to a unique sample of Dutch couples with children and find that job flexibility significantly impacts the production of children's well-being. While the results indicate that more job flexibility for fathers may help parents to balance work and family, they imply that more job flexibility for mothers may not allow parents to achieve the same. The overall implications for children's well-being appear negative, albeit limited. |
| Keywords: | household behavior, labor supply, gender differences, amenities, job flexibility, child care |
| JEL: | D13 J12 J22 |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17505 |
| By: | Ran Abramitzky; Leah Platt Boustan; Tamar Matiashvili |
| Abstract: | This paper provides an overview of recent empirical and methodological advances in the study of historical intergenerational mobility trends, with a focus on key measurement challenges. These advances are made possible by the recent digitization of historical censuses and new methods of historical record-linking, which have enabled researchers to create large historical samples of parent-child links. We identify three main findings. First, absolute mobility increased in the decades leading up to 1940 but has since declined, both in the US and other industrial countries. Second, recent studies on relative mobility question the classic narrative that the US has transitioned from a “land of opportunity” in the 19th century to a less mobile society today, suggesting that mobility was not as high in the past. However, estimates of relative mobility are sensitive to choices regarding sample selection and measurement. Third, we explore mechanisms underlying shifts in intergenerational mobility over time, including geographic mobility, wealth shocks, educational attainment, locational effects, and the transmission of parent-specific human capital. We conclude by suggesting avenues for future research. |
| JEL: | J6 N3 |
| Date: | 2025–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33330 |
| By: | Nisén, Jessica (University of Turku); Tassot, Johanna (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research); Iacoella, Francesco (Maastricht University); Eibich, Peter (PSL Université Paris Dauphine) |
| Abstract: | Many studies show that motherhood has substantial impacts on women's wages and earnings, but there is less evidence on the effect of the timing of entry into motherhood, particularly over the long term and from contexts other than the US. We analyse a sample of women who became mothers by age 30 from the 1970 British Cohort Study to examine whether the timing of the first birth affects mothers' midlife earnings, as well as the role of potential mediators. In the framework of instrumental variable regression, our preferred specification utilizes the occurrence of contraceptive failure as a source of exogenous variation in the age at first birth. We find tentative evidence that a later first birth leads to a higher probability of having any earnings in midlife. However, a later first birth has a negative earnings effect among mothers with any midlife earnings. Potential mediators of this effect are part-time work and birth spacing, given that a later first birth led to a higher likelihood to work part-time at midlife and to a shorter interval between the first and second birth. These findings suggest that the long-term economic impacts of having an early first birth may not be uniformly negative. |
| Keywords: | age at first birth, BCS70, earnings, employment, human capital, labour market attachment, midlife, Britain, United Kingdom |
| JEL: | J13 J16 J30 |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17494 |
| By: | Patrick Bennett; Jessica Botros |
| Abstract: | How do economic shocks at labor market entry shape patterns of intergenerational mobility? Both family background and negative shocks matter for future labor market success, and these two forces interact with each other. Negative economic shocks disproportionately harm those from disadvantaged backgrounds and, as a result, a one standard deviation increase in unemployment causes an 11–15% decrease in intergenerational mobility. Mobility decreases as higher unemployment widens the pre-existing gap in university education by socioeconomic status, and we show that differences in human capital are a key factor which explain rates of both relative and absolute mobility. |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11527 |
| By: | Henning Hermes; Marina Krauß; Philipp Lergetporer; Frauke Peter; Simon Wiederhold |
| Abstract: | This field experiment investigates the causal impact of mothers’ perceptions of gender norms on their employment attitudes and labor-supply expectations. We provide mothers of young children in Germany with information about the prevailing gender norm regarding maternal employment in their city. At baseline, over 70% of mothers incorrectly perceive this gender norm as too conservative. Our randomized treatment improves the accuracy of these perceptions, significantly reducing the share of mothers who misperceive gender norms as overly conservative. The treatment also shifts mothers’ own labor-market attitudes towards being more liberal—and we show that specifically the shifted attitude is a strong predictor of mothers’ future labor-market participation. Consistently, treated mothers are significantly more likely to plan an increase in their working hours one year ahead. |
| Keywords: | gender norms, maternal employment, gender equality, randomized controlled trial |
| JEL: | J16 J18 J22 C93 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11572 |
| By: | Simon Jäger; Suresh Naidu; Benjamin Schoefer |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we assess the recent economics literature on collective bargaining. Despite a declining trend in the OECD in coverage and especially union membership, a large share of formal workers around the world are still covered by collective bargaining agreements. We describe the substantial institutional variation across a variety of countries, highlighting research done with modern research designs and recently available administrative datasets. We then estimate a canonical empirical model of individual-level coverage effects and selection in harmonized cross-country data across 18 advanced economies (in Europe and North America). We estimate collective bargaining coverage premia, compression, selection, and spillover coefficients in each country, and use these to document considerable heterogeneity in collective bargaining coverage effects on the wage structure. While there is a strong negative relationship between collective bargaining coverage and wage inequality across countries, substantial uncertainties remain about the underlying mechanisms. Coverage effects may operate through direct premia, selection, or spillovers onto non-covered wages, but distinguishing and quantifying these channels and how they vary across institutional contexts remains a key challenge for future research. In our data, we find that the direct effect of coverage on wages of covered workers does not explain much of the cross-country correlation between coverage and inequality. While compelling research designs often result from specific institutional variation, we also emphasize that these contextual details must be accounted for when comparing estimates across industrial relations systems. A particularly pressing need is for more compelling causal evidence on spillover effects, which could help reconcile conflicting micro and macro evidence on how collective bargaining shapes the wage distribution. |
| JEL: | E0 F0 J0 M0 O0 |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33267 |
| By: | Anne Ardila Brenøe (University of Zurich); Zeynep Eyibak (University of Zurich); Lea Heursen (Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin); Eva Ranehill (Lund University and University of Gothenburg); Roberto Weber (University of Zurich) |
| Abstract: | Economic research on gender gaps has focused on variation based on the binary classification of “men” and “women”. We explore whether a self-reported continuous measure of gender identity (CGI) explains variation in economic decisions and outcomes beyond the relationship with binary gender. We analyze data from four diverse populations (N=8, 018), including measures of economic preferences and educational and labor market outcomes. We find that CGI is significantly associated with economic outcomes, with stronger relationships for men than women. Our results indicate that incorporating measures of self-reported gender identity could enhance our understanding of gender gaps in economic behavior and outcomes. |
| Keywords: | gender identity; non-binary gender; economic preferences; economic outcomes; |
| JEL: | C91 J16 J2 |
| Date: | 2025–01–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rco:dpaper:520 |
| By: | Kyle Greenberg; Melanie Wasserman; E. Anna Weber |
| Abstract: | Do men negatively respond when women first enter an occupation? We answer this question by studying the end of one of the final explicit occupational barriers to women in the U.S.: in 2016, the U.S. military opened all positions to women, including historically male-only combat occupations. We exploit the staggered integration of women into combat units to estimate the causal effects of the introduction of female colleagues on men’s job performance, behavior, and perceptions of workplace quality, using monthly administrative personnel records and rich survey responses. We find that integrating women into previously all-male units does not negatively affect men’s performance or behavioral outcomes, including retention, promotions, demotions, separations for misconduct, criminal charges, and medical conditions. Most of our results are precise enough to rule out small, detrimental effects. However, there is a wedge between men's perceptions and performance. The integration of women causes a negative shift in male soldiers' perceptions of workplace quality, with the effects driven by units integrated with a woman in a position of authority. We discuss how these findings shed light on the roots of occupational segregation by gender. |
| JEL: | H56 J16 J48 |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33235 |
| By: | Pauline Carry; Benjamin Schoefer |
| Abstract: | How do the employer and the worker interact during a dismissal? This paper tests whether they cooperate to minimize costs, or instead engage in conflict—i.e., deliberately amplify costs. We leverage a unique feature of the French labor market: an employer and a worker can jointly opt to replace a costly dismissal by a cheaper and more flexible “separation by mutual agreement” (SMA). Introduced in 2008, SMAs eliminate red tape costs, enable severance pay bargaining, and preclude litigation. However, we find that only 12% of dismissals are resolved through SMAs—far below the efficient level predicted by standard bargaining models. Surveying HR directors, we identify three drivers of conflict that hinder cost minimization: (i) hostility between the employer and the employee, (ii) employers using dismissals as a “discipline device” to maintain incentives, and (iii) asymmetric beliefs about subsequent labor court outcomes. Using counterfactual scenarios in the survey, we find that removing these three drivers of conflict would increase SMA adoption from 12% to 67% of dismissals. We confirm that less conflictual dismissals—due to either better employer-employee relationships or workers benefiting from early retirement—end more often as SMAs. |
| JEL: | D9 E24 J0 J38 J50 J63 M5 |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33245 |
| By: | Lee, Munseob (University of California, San Diego); Macaluso, Claudia (Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond); Schwartzman, Felipe (Richmond Fed) |
| Abstract: | Our paper addresses the heterogeneous effects of monetary policy on households of different races. The cyclical volatility of real income differs significantly for households of different races and income levels, reflecting differential exposure to fluctuations in employment and consumer prices. All Black households are disproportionately affected by employment fluctuations, whereas price volatility is only particularly pronounced for Black households with income above the national median. The latter face 40 percent higher price volatility than both poorer households of the same race and white households of similar income. To evaluate the effects of policy, we propose a New Keynesian framework with heterogeneous exposure to employment and price volatility. We find that an accommodative monetary stance generates asymmetric outcomes within race groups. Low-income households experience unemployment stabilization benefits, while high-income ones incur real income volatility costs. Differences are especially large among Black households. Reducing the volatility of unemployment by 1 percentage point engenders a 1.17 percentage point reduction in overall income volatility for poorer Black households, but an increase of 0.6 percentage points in income volatility for richer Black households. |
| JEL: | E31 E52 J15 |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17502 |
| By: | Vyborny, Kate (World Bank); Garlick, Robert (Duke University); Subramanian, Nivedhitha (Bates College); Field, Erica (Duke University) |
| Abstract: | Understanding specific barriers to job search and returns to relaxing these barriers is important for economists and policymakers. An experiment that changes the default process for initiating job applications increases applications by 600% on a search platform in Pakistan. Perhaps surprisingly, the marginal treatment-induced applications have approximately constant rather than decreasing returns. These results are consistent with a directed search model in which some jobseekers miss some high-return vacancies due to psychological costs of initiating applications. These findings show that small reductions in search costs can substantially improve search outcomes in environments with some relatively inactive jobseekers. |
| Keywords: | behavioural economics, job search, search frictions, platform |
| JEL: | J20 J60 O10 |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17520 |
| By: | Mocanu, Tatiana (Columbia University) |
| Abstract: | I combine novel data on job applications and hiring decisions for the universe of public sector jobs in Brazil and a natural experiment that decreased discretion in hiring to analyze how screening determines gender application and hiring gaps. I find that hiring practices have crucial gender equity consequences for selection and sorting, and not all approaches to reduce discretion have the same implications. Limiting discretion in existing tools or adding new impartial tools reduces the gender hiring gap by a third. However, policies that eliminate subjective tools like interviews are ineffective, suggesting employers should carefully weigh bias-information trade-offs. |
| Keywords: | hiring practices, gender bias, public sector personnel |
| JEL: | M51 D73 J16 J45 J71 |
| Date: | 2024–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17480 |
| By: | Boneva, Teodora (University of Bonn); Brás-Monteiro, Ana (University of Zurich); Golin, Marta (University of Zurich); Rauh, Christopher (University of Cambridge) |
| Abstract: | Gender gaps in labor supply and household responsibilities persist. Using representative survey data from 24, 000 respondents across six countries, this paper explores the actual and perceived preferences of men for couple equity. We document that in all six countries the majority of men state they prefer an equitable division of tasks within the household. At the same time, the actual share of men preferring couple equity is systematically underestimated in all six countries. The perceived shares vary substantially across the population, and they are positively associated with respondents' own preferences for couple equity. Providing respondents with truthful information about the actual share of men preferring couple equity in their country shifts individual beliefs, own stated preferences for couple equity, as well as the willingness to pay for it. The estimated treatment effects are mainly driven by respondents who initially underestimated the actual share. |
| Keywords: | subjective expectations, pluralistic ignorance, identity, norms, couple equity, parental labor supply |
| JEL: | J22 J13 I26 |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17493 |
| By: | Hassan Afrouzi; Andrés Blanco; Andrés Drenik; Erik Hurst |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we develop a model that combines elements of modern macro labor theories with nominal wage rigidities to study the consequences of unexpected inflation on the labor market. The slow and costly adjustment of real wages within a match after a burst of inflation incentivizes workers to engage in job-to-job transitions. Such dynamics after a surge in inflation lead to a rise in aggregate vacancies relative to unemployment, associating a seemingly tight labor market with lower average real wages. Calibrating with pre-2020 data, we show the model can simultaneously match the trends in worker flows and wage changes during the 2021-2024 period. Using historical data, we further show that prior periods of high inflation were also associated with an increase in vacancies and an upward shift in the Beveridge curve. Finally, we show that other “hot labor market” theories that can cause an increase in the aggregate vacancy-to-unemployment rate have implications that are inconsistent with the worker flows and wage dynamics observed during the recent inflationary period. Collectively, our calibrated model implies that the recent inflation in the United States, all else equal, reduced the welfare of workers through real wage declines and other costly actions, providing a model-driven reason why workers report they dislike inflation. |
| JEL: | E24 E31 J30 J63 |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33233 |
| By: | Daniel L. Dench; Kelly Lifchez; Jason M. Lindo; Jancy Ling Liu |
| Abstract: | In this study, we investigate whether reproductive rights affect migration. We do so using a synthetic difference-in-differences design that leverages variation from the 2022 Dobbs decision, which allowed states to ban abortion, and population flows based on change-of-address data from the United States Postal Service. The results indicate that abortion bans cause significant increases in net migration outflows, with effect sizes growing throughout the year after the decision. The most recent data point indicates that total abortion bans come at the cost of more than 36, 000 residents per quarter. The effects are more prominent for single-person households than for family households, which may reflect larger effects on younger adults. We also find suggestive evidence of impacts for states that were hostile towards abortion in ways other than having total bans. |
| JEL: | H0 I0 J0 K0 R0 |
| Date: | 2025–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33328 |
| By: | Henning Hermes (ifo Institute Munich); Marina Krauß (University of Augsburg); Philipp Lergetporer (Technical University of Munich); Frauke Peter (German Centre for Higher Education Research and Science Studies); Simon Wiederhold (University of Halle) |
| Abstract: | This field experiment investigates the causal impact of mothers’ perceptions of gender norms on their employment attitudes and labor-supply expectations. We provide mothers of young children in Germany with information about the prevailing gender norm regarding maternal employment in their city. At baseline, over 70% of mothers incorrectly perceive this gender norm as too conservative. Our randomized treatment improves the accuracy of these perceptions, significantly reducing the share of mothers who misperceive gender norms as overly conservative. The treatment also shifts mothers’ own labor-market attitudes towards being more liberal—and we show that specifically the shifted attitude is a strong predictor of mothers’ future labor-market participation. Consistently, treated mothers are significantly more likely to plan an increase in their working hours one year ahead. |
| Keywords: | maternal employment, gender equality, randomized controlled trial |
| JEL: | J16 J18 J22 C93 |
| Date: | 2025–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hka:wpaper:2024-024 |
| By: | Donald, Aletheia (World Bank); Goldstein, Markus (World Bank); Koroknay-Palicz, Tricia (World Bank); Sage, Mathilde (Catholic University Louvain) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines how women's fertility responds to increases in their earnings and household wealth using six experiments conducted in Sub-Saharan Africa. Contrary to predictions that an increase in female earnings raises the opportunity cost of childbearing and that this will lower fertility, we find that an increase in the profits of female business-owners in Ethiopia and Togo results in them having more children. We also observe a positive fertility response to increases in the value of household assets induced by land formalization programs in Benin and Ghana. These results are driven by women who are in most need of sons for support in old age or in the event of widowhood. Our findings suggest that women's lack of long-term economic security is an important driver of fertility in Sub-Saharan Africa. |
| Keywords: | fertility, households, Sub-Saharan Africa |
| JEL: | J13 O12 D13 J12 I32 |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17500 |
| By: | Charlotte Bartels; Eva Sierminska; Carsten Schröder |
| Abstract: | There is growing interest in understanding how gender influences the accumulation of wealth. While prior studies focused on labor-related determinants, our research focuses on inheritances and gifts. Using unique survey data that oversamples the top 1% of wealth holders in Germany, we show that the gender wealth gap is small for individuals up to age 40, then widens, and declines for those past retirement age. Transfer amounts and their timing are important drivers of these differences: men tend to inherit larger sums than women during their working life. Women often outlive their male partners, thus receiving larger inheritances at older ages. |
| Keywords: | wealth accumulation, wealth inequality, gender wealth gap, inheritances, gender economics |
| JEL: | D31 D63 J16 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:diw:diwsop:diw_sp1212 |
| By: | Charlot, Olivier (University of Cergy-Pontoise); Malherbet, Franck (Paris Graduate School of Economics, ENSAE); Menestrier, Eloise (DARES, French Ministry of Labour) |
| Abstract: | This study investigates in a European perspective the phenomenon of recalls, in which previously laid off or furloughed employees are rehired by the same employer. It specifically examines the French labour market, notable for its pronounced degree of contractual dualism. A novel theoretical model is proposed, illustrating that recalls linked to fixed-term contracts contribute to employment fragmentation. Then, drawing on extensive linked employer-employee data from France spanning 2012 to 2019, we offer fresh empirical insights into recall practices. Our findings reveal a substantial recall rate of 44%, primarily involving fixed-term contracts of short duration, highlighting the strong link between recalls and contractual dualism. Contrary to expectations, recalls are prevalent even in sectors with stringent fixed-term contract regulations, suggesting potential lapses in enforcement. Our results suggest that a significant proportion of recalls could breach the legal requirements governing the use of fixed-term contracts. At a more granular level, over a quarter of recalled workers are rehired more than five times a year, with women and older employees disproportionately affected—further intensifying labour market segmentation. Firm-level analysis reveals a positive correlation between recalls and both firm size and productivity, while primarily attributing recall practices to fixed firm characteristics. This is observed both in the share of entries into recalled employment and in the duration of contracts upon recall. Overall, recalls may meet firms' structural needs, however, insufficient incentives to stabilise employment and weak regulatory enforcement contribute to increased employment fragmentation and labour market segmentation. Overall, the joint use of recalls and fixed-term contracts leads to a particular labour market dynamics that we term as fragmented stability. |
| Keywords: | fixed-term contracts, recalls, rehiring, employment protection legislation |
| JEL: | J21 J41 J42 J63 J64 J68 |
| Date: | 2024–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17486 |
| By: | George J. Borjas; Nate Breznau |
| Abstract: | When studying policy-relevant topics, researchers’ policy preferences may shape the design, execution, analysis, and interpretation of results. Detection of such bias is challenging because the research process itself is not normally part of a controlled experimental setting. Our analysis exploits a rare opportunity where 158 researchers working independently in 71 research teams participated in an experiment. After being surveyed about their position on immigration policy, they used the same data to answer the same well-defined empirical question: Does immigration affect the level of public support for social welfare programs? The researchers estimated 1, 253 alternative regression models, producing a frequency distribution of the measured impact ranging from strongly negative to strongly positive. We find that research teams composed of pro-immigration researchers estimated more positive impacts of immigration on public support for social programs, while anti-immigration research teams reported more negative estimates. Moreover, the methods used by teams with strong pro- or anti- immigration priors received lower “referee scores” from their peers in the experiment. These lower-rated models helped produce the different effects estimated by the teams at the tails of the immigration sentiment distribution. The underlying research design decisions are the mechanism through which ideology enters the production function for parameter estimates. |
| JEL: | C90 I38 J69 |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33274 |
| By: | Pepin, Gabrielle (Upjohn Institute for Employment Research) |
| Abstract: | The Child and Dependent Care Credit (CDCC) subsidizes child care costs for working families. In response to the Covid-19 pandemic, the American Rescue Plan Act of 2021 increased the CDCC's generosity during 2021 only. I find that while the CDCC is of relatively little value in its current form, increases in eligibility rates and conditional benefits under the pandemic expansion increased the credit's value dramatically. Conditional on CDCC eligibility, higher-income households experienced the largest increases in benefit levels under the expanded CDCC, but lower-income households benefited disproportionately when measuring benefits as a share of income or child care spending. |
| Keywords: | Child and Dependent Care Credit, child care, American Rescue Plan Act of 2021, eligibility, benefits |
| JEL: | H24 J13 |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17538 |
| By: | Usman, Sehrish |
| Abstract: | Who thrives when alimony payments change? Restrictions on spousal alimony influence intra-family economic decisions by altering bargaining positions and raising concerns about post-divorce financial instability. Existing findings on restricted regimes are contradictory and need more clarity on the differential impact across heterogeneous households. This paper explores behavioural adaptations in labour supply and saving decisions of intact married partners in response to amendments in alimony reform in Germany. Using a difference-in-difference framework and longitudinal and retrospective datasets, I show that policy led to increased labour market participation of married women. However, behavioural responses vary significantly depending on the age cohort, family composition, duration of relationship, and income levels. |
| Keywords: | Household Economics, Spousal bargaining, Intra-family Decisions, Saving, Labor Supply, Policy Reform |
| JEL: | D13 D14 J12 J18 J22 |
| Date: | 2024–11–13 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:122806 |
| By: | Bruno César Araújo; Lourenço S. Paz; James E. West |
| Abstract: | We use Brazilian administrative employer-employee matched data of worker demographics, industry of affiliation, occupation, and wages to examine whether females in managerial and executive positions (cracks in the glass ceiling) lead to more gender-equal workplace outcomes. In response to the large and unanticipated 1999 Brazilian Real exchange rate devaluation, the gender wage gap widened across all firms. The contrast between female and male-led firms was large and highly significant regarding managerial and supervisory employees. Both the gender wage gap and the proportion of female employees grew more in female-led firms than in male-led firms, consistent with the predictions of our monopsony model of firm behavior. We conclude that exports further crack the glass ceiling but do not necessarily improve the gender wage gap. |
| JEL: | F12 J16 J31 |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33260 |
| By: | Bocar A. Ba; Nayoung Rim; Roman Rivera |
| Abstract: | Given the use of an individual’s arrest history for many economic and social outcomes, reducing conviction‐less arrests (arrests that result in no charges or where the defendant is found not guilty) is an important policy goal. This paper examines which officers are making conviction‐less arrests, and whether these arrests can be reduced with increased oversight. Using the Chicago Police Department’s rotational duty calendar to obtain plausibly exogenous variation in the set of officers assigned to work on a particular day, we find that arrests made by officers with high misconduct are 10.5% less likely than the arrests made by no‐misconduct officers to result in charges and are 14% more likely to have a “Not Guilty” outcome. We also analyze two events that increased the transparency of police misconduct through public disclosure of complaint records and find that increased oversight reduces conviction‐less arrests, but with important nuances across misconduct profiles. While no‐ and low‐misconduct officers are responsive to oversight mechanisms, high‐misconduct officers are less responsive. |
| JEL: | D73 J18 K42 |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33276 |
| By: | Stefania Albanesi |
| Abstract: | Women’s labor force participation rose rapidly in the post-war period in the United States until the mid-1990s when it flattened out. I examine the impact of this change in trend in female labor supply on aggregate business cycles both empirically and with a quantitative real business cycle model that incorporates gender differences. I show that the rise in women’s participation played a substantial role in the Great Moderation, and not allowing for gender differences leads to incorrect inference on the sources of this phenomenon. I also show that the discontinued growth in female labor supply starting in the 1990s played a substantial role in the jobless recoveries following the 1990-1991, 2001 and 2007-2009 recessions. Moreover, it reduced aggregate hours and output growth during the late 1990s and mid 2000s expansions. I also find that the growth in women’s employment added substantially to TFP growth. These results suggest that continued sustained growth in women’s employment after the early 1990s would have significantly improved economic performance in the United States. |
| Keywords: | Women's employment; Business cycles; Great moderation; Jobless recoveries |
| JEL: | E17 E32 E37 J11 J21 |
| Date: | 2025–01–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedmoi:99403 |
| By: | Budlong, Deodavid; Moreno, Frede |
| Abstract: | This study assesses the sustainability of reintegration programs for repatriated Overseas Filipino Workers (OFWs) in Zamboanga City, focusing on the effectiveness of current initiatives and identifying key areas for improvement. Employing a mixed-methods approach, the research combines quantitative surveys and qualitative interviews to evaluate program impact, stakeholder engagement, and program sustainability. Findings reveal that while existing programs offer crucial support, challenges such as bureaucratic inefficiencies, fragmented service delivery, and inadequate psychosocial support hinder their effectiveness. The study highlights the need for improved coordination among government agencies, non-governmental organizations (NGOs), and local stakeholders, as well as more tailored interventions addressing both economic and emotional needs. Recommendations include enhancing policy coherence, implementing continuous evaluation mechanisms, and fostering community engagement. Theoretical implications suggest a need for integrated policy frameworks and adaptive governance approaches. Practically, the study advocates for a more holistic, responsive approach to public administration, emphasizing collaboration and adaptability to better support repatriated OFWs. These insights contribute to the broader understanding of migration and reintegration in public administration, offering actionable strategies for improving program sustainability and effectiveness. |
| Keywords: | reintegration programs, Overseas Filipino Workers, sustainability, public administration, policy coordination, adaptive governance |
| JEL: | D60 F6 F66 I3 I31 I38 J5 J50 J6 J61 J64 J68 |
| Date: | 2024–11–26 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:122780 |
| By: | Łukasz Postek (Narodowy Bank Polski; University of Warsaw, Faculty of Economic Sciences); Małgorzata Walerych (Narodowy Bank Polski; Institute of Economics) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the role of immigration shocks in shaping unemployment and wage dynamics in Poland – a country that experienced a significant influx of immigrants following Russia’s invasions of Ukraine in 2014 and 2022. To achieve this, we construct novel proxies for the size of immigration to Poland and use them to estimate structural BVAR models. Our results suggest that the impact of the 2022 refugee wave on the Polish economy differs from previous immigration inflows, primarily influencing aggregate demand and, to a lesser extent, boosting labour supply. More specifically, in recent years, immigration shocks have slightly reduced the unemployment rate and, to a greater extent, lowered the annual growth rate of real wages. At the same time, they contributed to higher growth in nominal wages, particularly after 2022, when the influx of non-working immigrants, which created significant consumption demand, was at its highest. |
| Keywords: | immigration, Bayesian VAR, labour market |
| JEL: | C11 C32 E32 J61 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbp:nbpmis:373 |
| By: | Matt Marx; Qian Wang; Emmanuel Yimfor |
| Abstract: | How do venture capital investors react to social movements, including those that relate to historical underrepresentation in funding? We use image and name algorithms combined with clerical review to classify race for 150, 000 founders and 30, 000 investors. These data allow us to assess the impact of George Floyd’s murder on VC funding of Black entrepreneurs and identify which VCs were most responsive. Although VCs responded swiftly, investment in Black-founded startups reverted to prior levels within two years. This temporary reaction was concentrated among those who had never previously invested in any Black entrepreneur. Moreover, the investors who responded were less likely to invest in more than one Black-founded startup and were less inclined to engage deeply by taking a board seat. Finally, it appears that the best Black entrepreneurs may have anticipated this “token” response, as they did not match with investors who had no experience funding Black startups. |
| JEL: | J15 M13 |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33227 |
| By: | Lennard, Jason; Paker, Meredith |
| Abstract: | This paper evaluates how a major policy shift – the suspension of the gold standard in September 1931 – affected employment outcomes in interwar Britain. We use a new high-frequency industry-level dataset and difference-in-differences techniques to isolate the impact of devaluation on exporters. At the micro level, the break from gold reduced the unemployment rate by 2.7 percentage points for export-intensive industries relative to non-export industries. At the aggregate level, this effect stimulated the labor market, the fiscal outlook, and economic growth. Devaluation was therefore an important initial spark of recovery from the depths of the Great Depression. |
| Keywords: | exports; gold standard; interwar Britain; unemployment |
| JEL: | E24 F41 J64 N14 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:126517 |
| By: | Buyi Wang; Meredith Slopen; Irwin Garfinkel; Elizabeth Ananat; Sophie M. Collyer; Robert Paul Hartley; Anastasia Koutavas; Christopher Wimer |
| Abstract: | National paid family leave programs have been repeatedly proposed in the United States in recent years. To inform policy discussions, we provide a benefit-cost analysis of introducing such a program. We systematically identify high-quality, quasi-experimental studies on the impact of paid leave on infants and parents. Using the most conservative estimates or the mean estimates from this literature, we estimate that every $1, 000 investment in paid parental leave would generate, respectively, $7, 275 or $29, 406 in present discounted net social benefits. We use these estimates to conduct a microsimulation of benefits and costs of two policy proposals with different eligibility and wage replacement rates. The first, a 4-week program, would have an initial fiscal cost of under $2 billion and net social benefits of $13 (conservative) or $55 billion (mean). The corresponding figures for the 12-week program are about 3.7 times larger, suggesting that either version would likely generate high returns. |
| JEL: | I18 J18 |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33279 |
| By: | Bächli, Mirjam (University of Lausanne); Glitz, Albrecht (Universitat Pompeu Fabra) |
| Abstract: | Immigration may affect income inequality not only by changing factor prices but also by inducing policy makers to adjust the prevailing income tax system. We assess the relative importance of these economic and political channels using administrative data from Switzerland where local authorities have a high degree of tax autonomy. We show that immigrant inflows not only raise gross earnings inequality but also reduce the progressivity of local income taxes, further increasing after-tax inequality. Our estimates suggest that around 10 percent of the impact of immigration on the net interquartile and interdecile earnings gaps can be attributed to the political channel. |
| Keywords: | immigration, income taxes, earnings inequality |
| JEL: | H23 H24 H71 J31 J61 |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17523 |
| By: | Victor M. Bennett; David T. Robinson |
| Abstract: | We study racial and gender disparities in entrepreneurial activity through the lens of a Roy model, focusing on the distinction between idea generation and execution. Using nationally representative sur-vey data, we find that Black and Hispanic individuals demonstrate higher entrepreneurial intentions than white respondents. They are much less likely, however, to launch ventures once ideas are conceived. A critical determinant of this gap is differential reliance on social networks, which shapes both the likelihood of launching a business as well as the reasons for stopping. Variation in the strength of local, own-group entrepreneurship reveals that stronger networks enhance the relationship between social engagement and business formation. Also, as predicted by the model, access to social networks also predicts seeking capital. The interconnections between socialization and searching for capital are important for understanding-policies aimed at boosting rates of entrepreneurship in underrepresented groups. |
| JEL: | G50 J15 L26 |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33229 |
| By: | Manuel Hoffmann; Sam Boysel; Frank Nagle; Sida Peng; Kevin Xu |
| Abstract: | Recent advances in artificial intelligence (AI) technology demonstrate considerable potential to complement human capital intensive activities. While an emerging literature documents wide-ranging productivity effects of AI, relatively little attention has been paid to how AI might change the nature of work itself. How do individuals, especially those in the knowledge economy, adjust how they work when they start using AI? Using the setting of open source software, we study individual level effects that AI has on task allocation. We exploit a natural experiment arising from the deployment of GitHub Copilot, a generative AI code completion tool for software developers. Leveraging millions of work activities over a two year period, we use a program eligibility threshold to investigate the impact of AI technology on the task allocation of software developers within a quasi-experimental regression discontinuity design. We find that having access to Copilot induces such individuals to shift task allocation towards their core work of coding activities and away from non-core project management activities. We identify two underlying mechanisms driving this shift - an increase in autonomous rather than collaborative work, and an increase in exploration activities rather than exploitation. The main effects are greater for individuals with relatively lower ability. Overall, our estimates point towards a large potential for AI to transform work processes and to potentially flatten organizational hierarchies in the knowledge economy. |
| Keywords: | generative artificial intelligence, digital work, open source software, knowledge economy |
| JEL: | H40 O30 J00 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11479 |
| By: | Luis Sarmiento; Martino Gilli; Filippo Pavanello; Soheil Shayegh |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the role of positive income shocks in helping workers adapt to extreme temperatures. We use daily temperature variations alongside the exogenous implementation of a wage and fiscal policy in Mexican municipalities along the US border to show that increased disposable income significantly reduces temperature-related mortality in treated areas. Exploring the mechanisms, we find that income gains increase households’ adaptive capacity, particularly through higher electricity expenditures and the purchase of electric heaters. Our findings provide causal estimates of how income influences the marginal effect of temperature on mortality and contribute to the debate on the effectiveness of climate-related redistribution policies. |
| Keywords: | temperature, mortality, distributional effects, public policies, minimum wage |
| JEL: | Q51 Q58 J81 J88 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11542 |
| By: | Martín García-Vázquez (Washington University in St. Louis) |
| Abstract: | Mandatory minimum staff-to-child ratios are a pervasive childcare market regulation in the US, and yet little is known about their effects on children's skills. This paper builds an equilibrium model of the childcare market and uses it to simulate the distribution of children’s skills at preschool entry under various mandatory minimum staff-to-child ratios. The model allows for rich family heterogeneity, an endogenous distribution of childcare quality at each age, and endogenous wages that clear the market for teachers and childcare workers. I prove identification and estimate the model using both individual-level and state-level data. Counterfactual simulations show that increasing the stringency of minimum mandatory staff-to-child ratios increases the wages of childcare workers by up to 4.33% and wages of lead teachers by up to 2.75%. Despite making paid childcare more expensive, more stringent regulations increase the level of skills at kindergarten entry for each percentile of the skill distribution, except for the lowest percentiles. The effects on the skill distribution are more pronounced for children born to single mothers than those born to two-parent families. Finally, these overall effects on the skill distribution mask large heterogeneity: Increases in ratios' stringency translate into big skill gains for some children and large drops for others. Both family characteristics and the equilibrium adjustment of teacher's wages are key in determining the children who gain and lose. |
| Keywords: | childcare, skill development, simulation, skill distribution |
| JEL: | D58 J13 C62 I21 |
| Date: | 2025–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hka:wpaper:2024-025 |
| By: | Moamen Gouda; Anouk S. Rigterink |
| Abstract: | This study investigates the long-term relationship between slavery and violent crime in the USA. Although qualitative evidence suggests that slavery perpetuated violence, there has been no large-N study supporting this claim. Using county-level data, we find that the percentage of slaves in the population in 1860 is linked with violent crime in 2000. This result is specific to violent crime, robust to instrumenting for slavery and varying the approach to missing crime data, and not driven by biased crime reporting. Investigating the theoretical mechanisms driving these results, we find that historical slavery affects inequality (like Bertocchi and Dimico, 2014), white Americans’ political attitudes towards race (like Acharya et al., 2016b) and black American’s political attitudes – in opposite directions. Results suggest that inequality and black American’s political attitudes mediate the observed effect on violent crime in general, but that white American’s political attitudes mediate the effect on interracial violence. |
| Keywords: | slavery, crime, inequality, political attitude, violence, US South |
| JEL: | J15 J71 K42 N31 D70 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11515 |
| By: | Hamid Noghanibehambari; Jason Fletcher |
| Abstract: | This study examines the long-term effects of the Rockefeller Sanitary Commission’s (RSC) hookworm eradication campaign, initiated in the American South in the 1910s, on old-age longevity. Utilizing Social Security Administration death records linked to the 1940 full-count census, we employ a difference-in-differences approach to examine the effects of early-life exposure to the eradication campaign on later-life outcomes. We find that individuals exposed to the RSC campaign during in-utero and early-life experience an increase of 1.3 months in longevity. The effects are substantially larger among nonwhites, children of illiterate mothers, and those born in urban areas. Moreover, we provide evidence of dynamic complementarity in the effects of hookworm eradication on longevity, with larger effects observed in counties exposed to the Rosenwald school construction movement and in states with more stringent child labor laws. Using the 1940 census and World War II enlistment data, we provide suggestive evidence of improvements in educational attainment, income, and cognitive ability as possible pathways. Our findings contribute to the literature on the lasting effects of early-life public health interventions and underscore the importance of such programs in addressing present-day global health challenges. |
| JEL: | I1 I14 J10 |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33249 |