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on Labour Economics |
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Issue of 2024‒08‒12
27 papers chosen by |
| By: | John J. Horton; Ramesh Johari; Philipp Kircher |
| Abstract: | In a labor market model with cheap talk, employers can send messages about their willingness to pay for higher-ability workers, which job-seekers can use to direct their search and tailor their wage bid. Introducing such messages leads—under certain conditions—to an informative separating equilibrium that affects the number of applications, types of applications, and wage bids across firms. This model is used to interpret an experiment conducted in a large online labor market: employers were given the opportunity to state their relative willingness to pay for more experienced workers, and workers can easily condition their search on this information. Preferences were collected for all employers but only treated employers had their signal revealed to job-seekers. In response to revelation of the cheap talk signal, job-seekers targeted their applications to employers of the right “type, ” and they tailored their wage bids, affecting who was matched to whom and at what wage. The treatment increased measures of match quality through better sorting, illustrating the power of cheap talk for talent matching. |
| Keywords: | sorting, cheap-talk, gig-economy, freelancer, field-experiment, online job search platform |
| JEL: | J64 D83 C87 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11163 |
| By: | Jaime Arellano-Bover; Shmuel San |
| Abstract: | We study how job mobility, firms, and firm-ladder climbing can shape immigrants’ labor market success. Our context is the mass migration of former Soviet Union Jews to Israel during the 1990s. Once in Israel, these immigrants faced none of the legal barriers that are typically posed by migration regulations around the world, offering a unique backdrop to study undistorted immigrants’ job mobility and resulting unconstrained assimilation. Rich administrative data allows us to follow immigrants for up to three decades after arrival. Differential sorting across firms and differential pay-setting within firms both explain important shares of the initial immigrant-native wage gap and subsequent convergence dynamics. Moreover, immigrants are more mobile than natives and faster at climbing the firm ladder, even in the long term. As such, firm-to-firm mobility is a key driver of these immigrants’ long-run prosperity. Lastly, we quantify a previously undocumented job utility gap when accounting for non-wage amenities, which exacerbates immigrant-native disparities based on pay alone. |
| Keywords: | immigration, firms, job mobility, labor market assimilation |
| JEL: | J31 J61 F22 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11177 |
| By: | Sundberg, Anton (IFAU and Uppsala University) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the impact of parenthood on labor market outcomes for both men and women using population-wide annual income data from 1960 to 2021 in Sweden. First, I document the contemporary child penalties across several labor market outcomes. Second, I show that while the motherhood penalty in earnings declined significantly during the 1960s, 1970s, and early 1980s, the rate of decline slowed from the late 1980s onwards. Third, I identify a fatherhood penalty emerging since the 1980s, particularly pronounced among men in more gender-egalitarian households (proxied by the father’s share of parental leave) and among fathers who have sons relative to daughters. |
| Keywords: | Parenthood; child penalties; gender earnings gap |
| JEL: | J13 J16 J22 J31 |
| Date: | 2024–07–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:ifauwp:2024_012 |
| By: | Mühlbauer, Sabrina (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany); Weber, Enzo (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany) |
| Abstract: | "This paper develops a large-scale algorithm-based application to improve the match quality in the labor market. We use comprehensive administrative data on employment biographies in Germany to predict job match quality in terms of job stability and wages. The models are estimated with both machine learning (ML) (i.e., XGBoost) and common statistical methods (i.e., OLS, logit). Compared to the latter approach, we find that XGBoost performs better for pattern recognition, analyzes large amounts of data in an efficient way and minimizes the prediction error in the application. Finally, we combine our results with algorithms that optimize matching probability to provide a ranked list of job recommendations based on individual characteristics for each job seeker. This application could support caseworkers and job seekers in expanding their job search strategy." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en)) |
| JEL: | C14 C45 J64 C55 |
| Date: | 2024–07–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iab:iabdpa:202409 |
| By: | Abhay Aneja; Silvia Farina; Guo Xu |
| Abstract: | This paper combines personnel records of the U.S. federal government with census data to study how shocks to the gender composition of a large organization can persistently shift gender norms. Exploiting city-by-department variation in the sudden expansion of female clerical employment driven by World War I, we find that daughters of civil servants exposed to female co-workers are more likely to work later in life, command higher income, and have fewer children. These intergenerational effects increase with the size of the city-level exposure to female government workers and are driven by daughters in their teenage years at the time of exposure. We also show that cities exposed to a larger increase in female federal workers saw persistently higher female labor force participation in the public sector, as well as modest contemporaneous increases in private sector labor force participation suggestive of spill-overs. Collectively, the results are consistent with both the vertical and horizontal transmission of gender norms and highlight how increasing gender representation within the public sector can have broader labor market implications. |
| JEL: | J16 J7 N4 |
| Date: | 2024–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32639 |
| By: | Daniela Vidart (University of Connecticut) |
| Abstract: | The decline in fertility occurring throughout the first half of the 20th century in the United States and preceding the baby boom remains largely unexplored. This paper presents empirical and theoretical evidence linking this decline to the spread of electricity. Using data on early electrification e˙orts, I empirically disentangle two channels linking electrification and fertility: the introduction of time-saving appliances that reduce the time needed for child-rearing; and the rise in female wages which raises the opportunity cost of childcare. I then use these empirical estimates to calibrate a model that features both channels and quantifies the aggregate impact of electrification on fertility. I find that electrification explains 3.1% of the overall fertility decline in 1900–1940 in the US, corresponding to a magnitude of 0.047 fewer children born to each woman, and that this decline is driven by young childless women who can reap the labor market gains of electricity. |
| JEL: | J13 J16 J22 O33 E24 |
| Date: | 2024–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:uct:uconnp:2024-03 |
| By: | Cai, Xiqian (Xiamen University); Chen, Shuai (University of Leicester); Cheng, Zhengquan (Xiamen University) |
| Abstract: | Gender inequality and discrimination still persist, even though the gender gap in the labor market has been gradually decreasing. This study examines the effect of the #MeToo movement on judges' gender gap in their vital labor market outcome–judicial decisions on randomly assigned legal cases in China. We apply a difference-in-differences approach to unique verdict data including rich textual information on characteristics of cases and judges, and compare changes in sentences of judges of a different gender after the movement. We find that female judges made more severe decisions post-movement, which almost closed the gender gap. Moreover, we explore a potential mechanism of gender norms, documenting evidence for improved awareness of gender equality among women following the movement and stronger effects on judges' gender gap reduction in regions with better awareness of gender equality. This implies that female judges became willing to stand out and speak up, converging to their male counterparts after the #MeToo movement. |
| Keywords: | #MeToo movement, gender gap, inequality, judicial decision, crime, machine learning |
| JEL: | J16 K14 O12 P35 D63 |
| Date: | 2024–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17115 |
| By: | Munch, Jakob R. (University of Copenhagen); Olney, William W. (Williams College) |
| Abstract: | The prevalence of labor unions have declined post-WWII, and this paper examines whether globalization is a contributing factor. Offshoring jobs abroad may change the composition of domestic firms and employment and thus reduce union density. Alternatively, a firms' ability to offshore may erode the union's bargaining power, decrease the benefits of union membership, and reduce unionization rates. We test these predictions using an employer-employee matched data set covering the universe of workers and firms in Denmark (1999-2017), which allows us to measure the exogenous threat of offshoring at the firm-level and the unionization decisions of individual workers. The findings show that the threat of offshoring reduces unionization rates, even within a job-spell. This is not driven by the changing composition of firms or workers, but instead appears to be due to a decline in the union's bargaining position. Additional results confirm that the union wage premium and the rent-sharing elasticity are both smaller at offshoring firms. These results have important policy implications for the distributional effects of globalization and for the future of organized labor. |
| Keywords: | offshoring, unions, trade, globalization, collective bargaining |
| JEL: | F66 F16 J50 |
| Date: | 2024–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17116 |
| By: | Elizabeth U. Cascio; Ethan G. Lewis; Chengguo Zhang |
| Abstract: | Two million Mexicans were granted lawful permanent residency in the U.S. under the Immigration Reform and Control Act of 1986 (IRCA). We find that occupation and program use variables in a prominent proxy for legal status poorly detect this event. A decade after legalization, the share of Mexicans who are likely legal according to these variables shows little absolute change in survey data, with estimates ruling out increases of three and eight percentage points relative to comparison groups of Mexican Americans and non-Hispanic Blacks, respectively. In contrast, an actual measure of status, citizenship, does rise in line with administrative facts. |
| JEL: | H53 J15 J21 J61 J62 |
| Date: | 2024–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32632 |
| By: | Andrea Ramazzotti (Università di Napoli Federico II and CSEF) |
| Abstract: | Should minimum wages adjust to local productivity? Italy’s sectoral collective agreements make no adjustment, as they establish national wage floors irrespective of regional variation in income or cost of living. While some favour its equalizing action, many have argued that this approach causes inefficiencies that include low migration to more productive areas and high structural unemployment in less productive ones. This paper addresses these concerns by studying the spatial equalization of minimum wages in 1972, when the system was first introduced, using an original dataset of labour market variables covering the period 1962-1981. First, the paper presents an augmented gravity model of internal migration showing that spatial differentials in nominal minimum wages were a strong pull factors for both short- and long-distance migration before the reform, but not afterwards. Then, discussing potential mechanisms, the paper shows that the decrease in internal migration during the 1970s was associated with the inception of the spatial mismatches that characterize Italy’s labour markets to this day. |
| Keywords: | Wage Differentials, Internal Migration, Labor Economic History. |
| JEL: | J31 J61 N34 R23 |
| Date: | 2024–06–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sef:csefwp:716 |
| By: | Elizabeth U. Cascio; Paul Cornell; Ethan G. Lewis |
| Abstract: | We estimate the effects of permanent legal status on the health of children born to immigrants in the United States using variation from the Immigration Reform and Control Act of 1986 (IRCA). Our empirical approach compares trends in birth outcomes for foreign-born Mexican mothers across counties with different application rates under IRCA’s large-scale legalization programs. Maternal legalization raised birthweight. Effects arose immediately after the application process began – five years before affected women became Medicaid-eligible – suggesting causal mechanisms besides improved access to early prenatal care. Changes in the composition of births, stemming from changes in fertility and family reunification, contribute to but far from fully explain the birthweight impacts. The more likely mechanisms were instead the increases in family income and reductions in stress that came from gaining legal status. |
| JEL: | I13 I14 I18 J15 J61 K37 |
| Date: | 2024–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32635 |
| By: | Pierre-André Chiappori; Costas Meghir; Yoko Okuyama |
| Abstract: | In this paper we develop a novel approach to measuring individual welfare within households, recognizing that individuals may have both different preferences (particularly regarding public consumption) and differential access to resources. We construct a money metric measure of welfare that accounts for public goods (by using personalized prices) and the allocation of time. We then use our conceptual framework to analyse intrahousehold inequality in Japan, allowing for the presence of two public goods: expenditures on children and other public goods including housing. We show empirically that women have much stronger preferences for both public goods and this has critical implications for the distribution of welfare in the household. |
| JEL: | H31 H41 J12 J13 J16 J22 |
| Date: | 2024–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32645 |
| By: | Ina Ganguli; Jennifer R. Withrow |
| Abstract: | On February 5, 1917, the United States passed the Immigration Act of 1917, which included a test for all migrants arriving to the U.S. to prove they were literate. The Literacy Test was one of the first and few times the U.S. used a broad ‘skill-based’ immigration policy in an attempt to limit migration. We assess whether the Immigration Act had any measurable impacts on immigration to the U.S. Using a differences-in-differences approach and digitized data from Ellis Island ship manifests from directly before and after the Act’s passage and enactment, we show that the Act significantly altered selection into migration to the U.S. from Europe through Ellis Island, reducing migration from low literacy countries by 70 percent compared to arrivals from high-literacy countries. We also discuss other provisions of the Act that had the potential to influence the gender composition of arrivals. We show that women – and in particular single women – were less likely to arrive after its passage. Our analysis suggests that even during this period of lower immigration due to WWI and rising literacy levels, the 1917 Act was a consequential moment in immigration history in the United States. |
| JEL: | F22 J15 J61 N32 |
| Date: | 2024–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32624 |
| By: | Batista, Catia (Nova School of Business and Economics); Costa, David M (Nova School of Business and Economics); Freitas, Pedro (Nova School of Business and Economics); Lima, Gonçalo (European University Institute); Reis, Ana B (Nova School of Business and Economics) |
| Abstract: | Study abroad migration is the fastest growing international migration flow. However, the college completion rates of students from low-income countries are often modest in OECD countries, raising the hypothesis that these migrants are poorly informed about the costs and benefits of their decision. Our work tests this hypothesis by running a lab-in-the-field experiment where graduating high school students in Cape Verde are faced with incentivized decisions to apply for college studies abroad. Our results show that potential migrants react strongly to information about the availability of financial support and about college completion rates. Since subjects' prior beliefs on availability of financial support are overestimated, it is likely that study migrants need to shift their time from study to work after uninformed migration, which likely harms their scholar performance. Policies that inform potential migrants of actual study funding possibilities should decrease study migration flows but are likely to improve successful graduation. |
| Keywords: | international study migration, lab-in-the-field experiment, education, information, uncertainty |
| JEL: | O15 F22 J61 C91 |
| Date: | 2024–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17096 |
| By: | Kuhn, Moritz (University of Mannheim); Manovskii, Iourii (University of Pennsylvania); Qiu, Xincheng (Arizona State University) |
| Abstract: | Two prominent secular trends characterize the transformation of labor markets in industrialized countries in recent decades. First, employment has shifted from manufacturing to services. Second, the share of female employment in total employment has risen sharply. This paper documents a novel fact linking these two trends: female employment shares within manufacturing and within services have remained virtually constant over time and across developed economies. Constant sectoral gender shares imply that an exogenous increase in female labor supply can by itself induce structural change. We provide empirical evidence for the presence of this effect in the data. We then propose a quantitative theory of structural change with nonhomothetic preferences, differential sectoral productivity growth, gender complementarity in sectoral production, and rising female employment, and calibrate it to the U.S. economy. Quantitatively, we find that the rise in female employment accounts for about two-thirds of structural change in the U.S. over the past five decades. |
| Keywords: | structural change, female employment, labor markets |
| Date: | 2024–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17118 |
| By: | Miele, Kai R. |
| Abstract: | Exploiting future exposure to job termination in the UK, this paper finds that sharply increased job loss expectations before job termination significantly increase mental distress. This anticipation effect is largest in tight labor markets but does not spill over within couples. In contrast, anticipating job termination allows workers to switch positions without suffering unemployment. Leveraging variation in the industry-specific labor market tightness before the job termination, this paper shows that switching from a terminated position before its closure offsets over 70 percent of the negative labor market effects of the job termination, and mitigates its entire mental burden. |
| Keywords: | job loss, anticipation, mental health, unemployment, JEL classification: D84, I18, J28, J63 |
| Date: | 2024–07–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ajt:wcinch:82169 |
| By: | Halil Ýbrahim Aydin; Cagatay Bircan; Ralph De Haas |
| Abstract: | Blended finance programs combine public and private funding to ease credit constraints of specific firm segments. While rapidly gaining popularity, little evidence exists on their economic impact. To address this gap, we match credit registry data with firm level tax records to trace out the impacts of a blended finance program for female entrepreneurs in Türkiye. Using a synthetic difference-in-differences estimator, we show that participating banks durably increase lending to women-both in absolute terms and relative to male entrepreneurs. The average treatment effect on treated banks' share of lending to female entrepreneurs is 22 per cent. Banks expand credit to existing borrowers, poach clients from competitors, and crowd in first-time borrowers. Female clients of treated banks increase net borrowing and investment, especially those with higher capital productivity. Beneficiary firms grow their sales and profits, diversify suppliers, and exit less. There are no discernible impacts on aggregate firm populations at the district level, reflecting the program's relatively modest scale. Implications for program design are discussed. |
| Keywords: | Blended finance; Credit access; Female entrepreneurship; Misallocation |
| JEL: | D22 G21 G32 H81 J16 L26 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcb:wpaper:2408 |
| By: | Amer, Abdelrahman (University of Toronto); Craig, Ashley C (University of Michigan); Van Effenterre, Clémentine (University of Toronto) |
| Abstract: | Subjective performance evaluation is an important part of hiring and promotion decisions. We combine experiments with administrative data to understand what drives gender bias in such evaluations in the technology industry. Our results highlight the role of personal interaction. Leveraging 60, 000 mock video interviews on a platform for software engineers, we find that average ratings for code quality and problem solving are 12 percent of a standard deviation lower for women than men. Half of these gaps remain unexplained when we control for automated measures of coding performance. To test for statistical and taste-based bias, we analyze two field experiments. Our first experiment shows that providing evaluators with automated performance measures does not reduce the gender gap. Our second experiment removed video interaction, and compared blind to non-blind evaluations. No gender gap is present in either case. These results rule out traditional economic models of discrimination. Instead, we show that gender gaps widen with extended personal interaction, and are larger for evaluators educated in regions where implicit association test scores are higher. |
| Keywords: | discrimination, gender, coding, experiment, information |
| JEL: | C93 D83 J16 J71 M51 |
| Date: | 2024–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17077 |
| By: | Hessami, Zohal (Ruhr University Bochum); Khasanboev, Temurbek (Ruhr University Bochum) |
| Abstract: | This paper sheds light on a neglected reason for women's underrepresentation in politics: crisis-induced gender gaps in incumbents' reelection with lasting negative effects on female representation. We use hand-collected data on 173, 339 candidates in open-list local council elections (1997-2021) in the German state of Hesse. We exploit the March 2021 election one year into the Covid-19 pandemic and exclusive local Covid-19 mortality data in a continuous DiD framework. In a setting where (individual) councilors had no role in fighting the pandemic, we provide robust evidence for a gender blame attribution gap: at an average of one death/1, 000 inhabitants, an additional death (≈ one SD treatment) leads to a 4.3 and 7.8 ppt lower reelection probability for male and female incumbents, respectively. Further results exclude various alternative mechanisms. Simulations predict persistent negative effects on future female councilor shares of 3-4 ppts. |
| Keywords: | gender, retrospective voting, incumbency, crisis, local elections, political selection |
| JEL: | D72 H12 H70 I18 J16 |
| Date: | 2024–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17081 |
| By: | Salla Kalin; Ilpo Kauppinen; Kaisa Kotakorpi; Jukka Pirttilä |
| Abstract: | We contribute to the literature on taxation and international mobility by estimating the impact of labour income taxation on the migration decisions of the entire working population in a high-tax source country, Finland. We find that the average domestic elasticity of migration with respect to the domestic tax rate is very small (around 0.0005). We also examine the income gradient of the semi-elasticity of migration, shown to be the key sufficient statistic in Lehmann et al. (2014). Our estimates indicate that the migration semi-elasticities are increasing for top earners, but remain small at least up to top permille of income earners. |
| Keywords: | taxation, migration |
| JEL: | J61 H31 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11165 |
| By: | Simone Maxand; Hend Sallam |
| Abstract: | We investigate the impact of immigration on public budgets using administrative data from German districts (Kreise). While previous literature suggests that the fiscal benefits of migration depend on government spending responses to immigration, the local-level effects in Germany remain relatively unexplored. Our study analyzes how immigration influences public spending, the provision of public goods, and public revenues from 2010 to 2019. Employing the post-double selection LASSO method for model identification and instrument generation, our results suggest that an increase in the foreign population proportion at the district level does not significantly affect public investment spending or collected tax revenues. Overall, along with 2011 results at the community level (Gemeinde), this research discusses the importance of distinguishing between different local levels, migration groups, and expenditure categories, when studying the gains and burdens of immigration in Germany. |
| Keywords: | immigration, size of the government, welfare state, local budgets, spatial economy, public revenues, public spending |
| JEL: | H53 I38 H70 H72 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11162 |
| By: | Chen, Shuai (University of Leicester); Powdthavee, Nattavudh (Nanyang Technological University, Singapore); Wiese, Juliane V. (Warwick Business School) |
| Abstract: | We study whether the model minority stereotype about Asian Americans (e.g., hard-working, intelligent) reduces people's attention to inequality that adversely affects Asians. In a nationally representative US sample (N=3, 257), we find that around 90% of the participants either moderately or strongly believe that Asians work harder and are more economically successful compared to other ethnic minorities. We then demonstrate that an increase in the model minority belief has a dose-response relationship with people's tendency to overestimate incomes for Asians but not for Whites and Blacks. In a basic cognitive task, people are more likely to see an equal distribution of resources between Asians and people of other races when Asians have less than others by design. Although there is little evidence that a marginal increase in the model minority belief significantly reduces people's attention to inequality that adversely affects Asians in a pattern detection hiring task, we find that people who hold a strong model minority stereotype are only more likely to naturalistically point out unfair hiring practices when Whites are discriminated against. Our results offer new insights into the possible mechanisms behind why many Americans are relatively more apathetic toward Asians' unfair treatment and negative experiences compared to those of other races. |
| Keywords: | Asian Americans, model minority, stereotype, inequality, attention, redistribution |
| JEL: | D63 D91 J15 |
| Date: | 2024–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17087 |
| By: | Laura E. Boudreau; Rocco Macchiavello; Virginia Minni; Mari Tanaka |
| Abstract: | Social movements are catalysts for crucial institutional changes. To succeed, they must coordinate members’ views (consensus building) and actions (mobilization). We study union leaders within Myanmar’s burgeoning labor movement. Union leaders are positively selected on both personality traits that enable them to influence others and ability but earn lower wages. In group discussions about workers’ views on an upcoming national minimum wage negotiation, randomly embedded leaders build consensus around the union’s preferred policy. In an experiment that mimics individual decision-making in a collective action set-up, leaders increase mobilization through coordination. Leaders empower social movements by building consensus that encourages mobilization. |
| JEL: | C93 D23 D70 J51 J52 |
| Date: | 2024–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32619 |
| By: | Jose Barrales-Ruiz (Center of Economics for Sustainable Development (CEDES), Faculty of Economics and Government, Universidad San Sebastian, Chile); Codrina Rada (Department of Economics, University of Utah, USA); Rudiger von Arnim (Department of Economics, University of Utah, USA) |
| Abstract: | This paper provides a set of baseline empirical results on Goodwin cycles for the US post-war macroeconomy. Our sample consists of Hamilton-filtered series for nonfarm business sector output and labor share as well as the employment rate. Vector autoregressions (VARs) yield strong evidence for the Goodwin mechanism, i.e. profit-led activity and profit-squeeze distribution, in two (output or employment rate cycle vs. labor share cycle) and three (output, employment rate and labor share cycles) dimensions. We focus solely on the cycle rather than underlying trends, discuss how theory and empirical methods relate, and investigate whether and how the Goodwin mechanism has changed over time. To do so, we estimate split samples with standard recursive VARs for the 'golden age' (GA) and 'neoliberal era' (NE), as well as time-varying parameter VARs. Results indicate (i) overall a persistence of the Goodwin mechanism over the entire post-war period; but (ii) generally less pronounced cyclicality during NE than GA, and (iii) a weakening of the profit squeeze vis-`a-vis the employment rate over time as well as, on balance, a weakening of the profit led regime of both activity variables. |
| Keywords: | Neo-Goodwinian empirics, cyclical growth |
| JEL: | E12 E25 E32 J50 |
| Date: | 2024–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:new:wpaper:2410 |
| By: | Regmi, Krishna (Florida Gulf Coast University) |
| Abstract: | This study investigates whether the minimum wage affects the uptake of Supplemental Security Income (SSI). To disentangle the effect of the minimum wage from underlying macroeconomic conditions, I use a triple-differences-type model that exploits cross-state and temporal differences in the minimum wage and its differential effects on those individuals with and without a high school diploma. The results show that a one percent increase in the minimum wage leads to a 0.33 percent decline in SSI uptake. To substantiate the findings, this study employs an alternative approach, leveraging the discontinuity in minimum wage legislation at state borders by comparing SSI uptake within the contiguous state-border counties. Using this approach yields qualitatively similar findings, corroborating the baseline estimates. |
| Keywords: | minimum wage, Supplemental Security Income, border discontinuity, means-tested programs |
| JEL: | J08 |
| Date: | 2024–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17074 |
| By: | Emma Aguila; Raquel Fonseca |
| Abstract: | This study explores how basic income for elderly (non-contributory pension program) affects the health of self-employed and salaried workers differently, which is particularly interesting given the greater social protection and lower income volatility of the latter. The study uses a cluster-randomized controlled trial that provides supplemental incomes to adults aged 70 or older in two towns in Yucatan, Mexico, and compares the effects of supplemental income over two waves for Valladolid (where eligible individuals received a monthly income supplement throughout the analysis period) and Motul (a demographically matched control town). The results indicate that self-employed workers experience a decrease in anemia, an improvement in peak expiratory flow, and better health care use and well-being. In contrast, salaried workers' health outcomes show no significant effect from the program. The program improves food availability for both self-employed and salaried workers, but its impact on food availability is stronger for self-employed workers. Cette étude examine comment le revenu de base pour les personnes âgées (programme de pension non contributif) affecte différemment la santé des travailleurs indépendants et des travailleurs salariés, ce qui est particulièrement intéressant compte tenu de la plus grande protection sociale et de la plus faible volatilité des revenus de ces derniers. L'étude utilise un essai contrôlé randomisé en grappes qui fournit des revenus supplémentaires aux adultes âgés de 70 ans ou plus dans deux villes du Yucatan, au Mexique, et compare les effets du revenu supplémentaire sur deux vagues pour Valladolid (où les personnes éligibles ont reçu un supplément de revenu mensuel tout au long de la période d'analyse) et Motul (une ville de contrôle appariée sur le plan démographique). Les résultats indiquent que les travailleurs indépendants connaissent une diminution de l'anémie, une amélioration du débit expiratoire maximal, ainsi qu'une meilleure utilisation des soins de santé et un meilleur bien-être. En revanche, le programme n'a pas eu d'effet significatif sur la santé des travailleurs salariés. Le programme améliore la disponibilité alimentaire tant pour les travailleurs indépendants que pour les salariés, mais son impact sur la disponibilité alimentaire est plus important pour les travailleurs indépendants. |
| Keywords: | Supplemental income, elderly, Mexico, health, lifetime occupation, Revenu complémentaire, personnes âgées, Mexique, santé, occupation à vie |
| JEL: | I32 I14 J14 |
| Date: | 2024–07–15 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cir:cirwor:2024s-04 |
| By: | Brown, J. David (U.S. Census Bureau); Heggeness, Misty L. (U.S. Census Bureau) |
| Abstract: | Several small-sample studies have predicted that a citizenship question in the 2020 Census would cause a large drop in self-response rates. In contrast, minimal effects were found in Poehler et al.'s (2020) analysis of the 2019 Census Test randomized controlled trial (RCT). We reconcile these findings by analyzing associations between characteristics about the addresses in the 2019 Census Test and their response behavior by linking to independently constructed administrative data. We find significant heterogeneity in sensitivity to the citizenship question among households containing Hispanics, naturalized citizens, and noncitizens. Response drops the most for households containing noncitizens ineligible for a Social Security number (SSN). It falls more for households with Latin American-born immigrants than those with immigrants from other countries. Response drops less for households with U.S.-born Hispanics than households with noncitizens from Latin America. Reductions in responsiveness occur not only through lower unit self-response rates, but also by increased household roster omissions and internet break-offs. The inclusion of a citizenship question increases the undercount of households with noncitizens. Households with noncitizens also have much higher citizenship question item nonresponse rates than those only containing citizens. The use of tract-level characteristics and significant heterogeneity among Hispanics, the foreign-born, and noncitizens help explain why the effects found by Poehler et al. were so small. Linking administrative microdata with the RCT data expands what we can learn from the RCT. |
| Keywords: | administrative records, noncitizen coverage, sensitive questions, survey error |
| JEL: | C83 C93 J11 J15 |
| Date: | 2024–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17073 |