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on Labour Economics |
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Issue of 2024‒07‒29
fourteen papers chosen by |
| By: | Brooke Helppie McFall; Eric D. Parolin; Basit Zafar |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates gender gaps in long-term career expectations and outcomes of PhD candidates in economics. For this purpose, we match rich survey data on PhD candidates (from the 2008-2010 job market cohorts) to public data on job histories and publication records through 2022. We document four novel empirical facts: (1) there is a robust gender gap in career expectations, with females about 10 percentage points less likely to ex-ante expect to get tenure or publish regularly; (2) the gender gap in expectations is remarkably similar to the gap observed for academic outcomes; (3) expectations are similarly predictive of outcomes for males and females. In addition, the predictive power of expectations does not differ by the relationship status of the individual; and (4) gender gaps in expectations can explain about 19% and 13% of the ex-post gaps in tenure and publications, respectively. |
| JEL: | J16 J44 |
| Date: | 2024–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32446&r= |
| By: | Tom Günther; Jakob Conradi; Clemens Hetschko |
| Abstract: | Unemployment influences people’s life satisfaction beyond negative income shocks. A large body of literature investigates these non-pecuniary costs of unemployment and stresses the importance of social identity and therefore social norms, especially for men. We add to this literature by showing that norm non-compliance may equally inflate the non-pecuniary loss of well-being for unemployed women. Drawing upon large-scale German panel data, we use the German division as a natural experiment to compare unemployment-related life satisfaction losses between different cohorts of East and West German women. We hypothesise that being exposed to different legal norms concerning workforce participation and different opportunity cost of working after the division shaped social identities and thus social norms around work for the two German female populations in different ways. Specifically, East German women were required to work full-time whereas West German women were expected to focus on family care. We find that East German women suffer significantly more from unemployment than West German women. This difference is driven by a significantly worse unemployment experience for East German females that were exclusively raised in the former GDR. We do not find such diverging patterns for German men. Our findings imply that women may suffer as much from unemployment as men, if socialised in the same way. |
| Keywords: | well-being, gender, unemployment, social identity, social norms, German division |
| JEL: | P30 I31 J16 J60 N34 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11154&r= |
| By: | Michel Beine; Vincent Fromentin; Javier Sánchez Bachiller |
| Abstract: | An extensive literature has documented the incentive effect of emigration prospects in terms of human capital accumulation in origin countries. Much less attention has been paid to the impact on specific educational choices. We provide some evidence from the behavior of students at the University of Lorraine that is located in the northeast of France and close to Luxembourg, a booming economy with attractive work conditions. We find that students who paid attention to the foreign labor market at the time of enrollment tend to choose topics that lead to occupations that are highly valued in Luxembourg. These results hold when accounting for heterogeneous substitution patterns across study fields through the estimation of advanced discrete choice models. Incentive effects of emigration prospects are also found when accounting for the potential endogeneity of the interest for the foreign labor market using a control function approach based on the initial locations of these students at the time of enrollment. Consistently, students showing no attention to the foreign labor market are not subject to the incentive effect of emigration prospects. |
| Keywords: | brain gain, emigration prospects, educational choices, discrete choice modelling, labor markets |
| JEL: | C25 F22 J61 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11158&r= |
| By: | Bert Van Landeghem (University of Sheffield and IZA Institute of Labor Economics); Thomas Dohmen (University of Bonn); Arne Risa Hole (Jaume I University); Annemarie Künn-Nelen (Maastricht University (ROA) and IZA) |
| Abstract: | This study examines jobseekers’ preferences for a variety of job attributes. It is based on a choice experiment involving 1, 852 clients of the Flemish Public Employment Service (PES). Respondents value flexibility (e.g., remote work and schedule flexibility), job security and social impact of the job, and require significant compensation for longer commute times. A majority (70%) would need very substantial wage increase beyond their acceptable baseline wage to compensate for less flexibility, job security or social impact. These findings enhance our understanding of labour supply decisions and can inform the design of salary packages and HR policies. |
| Keywords: | Reservation wage, job search, job amenities, compensating differentials, choice experiments |
| JEL: | J31 J32 J64 J16 |
| Date: | 2024–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ajk:ajkdps:322&r= |
| By: | Birgit Meyer; Klaus S. Friesenbichler; Harald Oberhofer |
| Abstract: | Abstract: This study is the first to examine employment effects by gender in Austrian firms and thus provides insight into the role of Austrian firms engaged in foreign trade for women's labour market opportunities and participation in firms. Using a matched employer-employee dataset based on various microdata from the Austrian Micro Data Center (AMDC) of Statistics Austria, the study looks at different indicators and possible differences between female employees in foreign trade-affiliated firms compared to exclusively domestic firms. |
| Keywords: | international trade, gender pay gap, female labour force participation, Matched employer-employee data, Exporter |
| JEL: | F14 F16 J31 J16 |
| Date: | 2024–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wsr:ecbook:y:2024:m:05:i:4&r= |
| By: | Miguel A. Mascarúa Lara |
| Abstract: | What are the effects on the labor market and aggregate income of frictions that restrict women's labor decisions that impede labor participation and composition being equal between men and women? To answer this question, I develop an occupational general equilibrium model with heterogeneous agents facing gender-based restrictions in labor participation and job selection. Then, I include an endogenous distribution of the size of formal and informal establishments and workers to replicate the Mexican data. Finally, I use the ENOE to calibrate the model and estimate gender-based frictions in the labor market in states and regions of Mexico and their effect on aggregate income. According to the model, aggregate income could increase by 4.3% without women's restrictions to entrepreneurship and by 32.1% without restrictions to entry and entrepreneurship. In addition, the southern states would witness the largest increases. |
| Keywords: | Misallocation;female entrepreneurship;gender frictions;informality |
| JEL: | J16 J70 O17 O40 O10 O50 |
| Date: | 2024–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdm:wpaper:2024-05&r= |
| By: | Robert Flynn; Britta Glennon; Raviv Murciano-Goroff; Jiusi Xiao |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the impact of rising U.S.-China geopolitical tensions on three main dimensions of science: STEM trainee mobility between these countries, usage of scientific works between scientists in each country, and scientist productivity in each country. We examine each dimension from a “U.S.” perspective and from a “China” perspective in an effort to provide evidence around the asymmetric effects of isolationism and geopolitical tension on science. Using a differences-in-differences approach in tandem with CV and publication data, we find that between 2016 and 2019 ethnically Chinese graduate students became 16% less likely to attend a U.S.-based Ph.D. program, and that those that did became 4% less likely to stay in the U.S. after graduation. In both instances, these students became more likely to move to a non-U.S. anglophone country instead. Second, we document a sharp decline in Chinese usage of U.S. science as measured by citations, but no such decline in the propensity of U.S. scientists to cite Chinese research. Third, we find that while a decline in Chinese usage of U.S. science does not appear to affect the average productivity of China-based researchers as measured by publications, heightened anti-Chinese sentiment in the U.S. appears to reduce the productivity of ethnically Chinese scientists in the U.S. by 2-6%. Our results do not suggest any clear “winner, ” but instead indicate that increasing isolationism and geopolitical tension lead to reduced talent and knowledge flows between the U.S. and China, which are likely to be particularly damaging to international science. The effects on productivity are still small but are likely to only grow as nationalistic and isolationist policies also escalate. The results as a whole strongly suggest the presence of a “chilling effect” for ethnically Chinese scholars in the U.S., affecting both the U.S.’s ability to attract and retain talent as well as the productivity of its ethnically Chinese scientists. |
| JEL: | F22 F6 O3 |
| Date: | 2024–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32622&r= |
| By: | Hans-Martin von Gaudecker (University of Bonn); Radost Holler (University of Bonn); Lenard Simon (University of Bonn & German Council of Economic Experts); Christian Zimpelmann (Institute of Labor Economics) |
| Abstract: | This study examines how the Covid-19 pandemic-induced shift towards remote work has influenced parents' allocation of non-market and market work. Utilizing a probability-based panel survey and comprehensive administrative records from the Netherlands covering the years 2014 to 2021, we demonstrate that the potential for remote work has been significantly realized only after the onset of the pandemic. Simultaneously, following a brief period of school and daycare closures, the total time parents spent on childcare returned to pre-pandemic levels. Notably, while the potential for remote work was associated with reduced childcare provision before the pandemic, this relationship reversed post-pandemic onset. We interpret this shift as an indication of increased flexibility for parents, with fathers experiencing greater gains than mothers. Consequently, the division of childcare duties has become more equitable, and mothers have increased their working hours. Our findings suggest that broader acceptance of remote work by employers could foster greater gender convergence in the intra-household division of labor. |
| Keywords: | Job flexibility, remote work, childcare, division of labor, time-use data |
| JEL: | J13 J16 J22 |
| Date: | 2024–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ajk:ajkdps:321&r= |
| By: | Erick Rangel González; Irving Llamosas-Rosas; Sara Hutchinson Tovar |
| Abstract: | Using employment microdata from the Mexican Social Security Institute, from January 2019 to June 2021, the impacts of COVID-19 on the probability of job separation and monthly wage variations at the national and regional levels by age and sex groups are analyzed. The results indicate greater increases in the probability of job separation for men than for women in the first months of the health crisis compared to the pre-pandemic period. Likewise, a reduction in wage variations is estimated, which proportionally affected men more than women, although these differences disappear over time. By age group, the results show that workers aged 60 to 65 are the most affected in terms of the probability of job separation, while the youngest group of workers recorded the largest reductions in wage variations. Finally, there is heterogeneity in the results by region. |
| Keywords: | COVID-19;Probability of job separation;Salary variations;Differences by sex and age groups |
| JEL: | J01 J16 J30 J64 |
| Date: | 2024–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdm:wpaper:2024-08&r= |
| By: | I. Etzo; R. Paci; C. Usala |
| Abstract: | Our study examines the relationship between university student mobility and local economic dynamics. Universities are pivotal in shaping societies and economies as hubs of knowledge creation, innovation, and cultural exchange. While recent research underscores the significant impact of university students on local development, there is a notable gap in understanding the distinct effects of mobile versus resident students on the local economy. Using data from 90 NUTS3 provinces in Italy between 2013 and 2019, we investigate the spatial inequalities generated by student mobility. Our focus is on secondlevel university students, who are closer to entering the labor market and thus have a more immediate impact on the local economy. Employing a standard fixed effects growth model, our findings reveal that incoming students significantly boost the economic growth of the destination province, particularly in the Center-North regions (brain gain). Conversely, the southern provinces suffer reduced growth due to the loss of talented students (brain drain). Thus, student mobility exacerbates the enduring spatial disparities in Italy contributing to uneven economic development across regions. |
| Keywords: | spatial disparities;brain drain;mobile university students;growth model |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cns:cnscwp:202411&r= |
| By: | Ofori, Pamela E.; Ofori, Isaac K. |
| Abstract: | The surge in frontier technology adoption (FTR) in education, health, and labour markets cannot be overemphasised. Notwithstanding, rigorous empirical findings concerning their socioeconomic impacts in the Global South are hard to find. Accordingly, this study explores the impact of FTR on gender inequality in low-income, and middle- and high-income African countries. Second, this study investigates the moderating role of electricity access in the FTR-gender inequality nexus. Third, the study examines the threshold effect of electricity access in the FTR-gender inequality relationship. Compelling evidence, based on country-level data for 29 African countries from 2010-2020, reveals that FTR promotes gender equality in both low-income, and middle- and high-income African countries. However, this impact is striking in the middle- and high-income African countries. Further, the contingency analysis establishes that electricity access amplifies the effect of FTR on gender equality but only in middle- and high-income African countries. Additionally, the threshold analysis demonstrates that broadening electricity access coverage conditions FTR to further enhance gender equality. However, this positive impact eludes low-income African countries. We conclude that investments in broadening electricity access and the capacity of African countries in adopting, mastering, and adapting frontier technologies are critical for inclusive human development. |
| Keywords: | Africa; Agenda 2063; Frontier technology adoption; Gender Inequality; Inclusive human development |
| JEL: | J16 O3 O55 Q01 Q43 |
| Date: | 2024–06–15 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:121245&r= |
| By: | Hanna Schwank |
| Abstract: | Natural disasters are growing in frequency globally. Understanding how vulnerable populations respond to these disasters is essential for effective policy response. This paper explores the short- and long-run consequences of the 1906 San Francisco Fire, one of the largest urban fires in American history. Using linked Census records, I follow residents of San Francisco and their children from 1900 to 1940. Historical records suggest that exogenous factors such as wind and the availability of water determined where the fire stopped. I implement a spatial regression discontinuity design across the boundary of the razed area to identify the effect of the fire on those who lost their home to it. I find that in the short run, the fire displaced affected residents, forced them into lower paying occupations and out of entrepreneurship. Experiencing the disaster disrupted children’s school attendance and led to an average loss of six months of education. While most effects attenuated over time, the negative effect on business ownership persists even in 1940, 34 years after the fire. Therefore, my findings reject the hope for a “reversal of fortune” for the victims, in contrast to what is found for more recent natural disasters such as hurricane Katrina. |
| Keywords: | Natural Disasters; Internal Migration; Economic History, Regional and Urban Economics |
| JEL: | N91 N31 Q54 O15 J61 J62 |
| Date: | 2024–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bon:boncrc:crctr224_2024_571&r= |
| By: | Michael T. Kiley |
| Abstract: | I assess monetary policy strategies to foster price stability and labor market strength. The assessment incorporates a range of challenges, including uncertainty regarding the equilibrium real interest rate, mismeasurement of economic potential, and balancing the costs and benefits associated with employment shortfalls and labor market strength. I find that the ELB remains a significant constraint, hindering achievement of the inflation objective and worsening employment shortfalls. Symmetric policy reaction functions mitigate the most adverse effects of employment shortfalls by contributing to economic stability. Make-up strategies address ELB risks. These strategies call for policy to accommodate some period of inflation above its long-run objective following an ELB episode. I also consider an asymmetric shortfalls approach to policy. This approach provides accommodation in response to weak activity while foregoing tightening in response to strong activity. While the approach can, in principle, address ELB risks by raising inflation, it performs poorly. The shortfalls approach exacerbates economic volatility, worsens employment shortfalls, and creates excess inflationary pressures. Mismeasurement is not sufficient to limit the importance of strong responses to measured slack. Overall, monetary policy can promote price stability and labor market strength by focusing on economic stability, with a strategy targeted to address ELB risks. |
| Keywords: | Monetary policy; Rules and discretion; Effective lower bound; Symmetric loss function; Asymmetric loss function |
| JEL: | E52 E58 E37 |
| Date: | 2024–05–28 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2024-33&r= |
| By: | Lindblad, Annika; Gäddnäs, Niklas |
| Abstract: | In this paper we evaluate whether the accuracy of Finnish unemployment rate forecasts can be improved by utilising the information in the flows into and out of unemployment. We compare and contrast different methodologies for constructing the flows. Our results indicate that Bayesian vector autoregressive models improve forecasts over a simple autoregressive model. Labour market flows improve forecasts over very short forecasting horizons. Additional labour market variables can improve forecast accuracy. The time-series models struggle to improve upon professional forecasts, but a combination of these forecasts proves advantageous especially when forecasting two quarters ahead. |
| Keywords: | unemployment, labour market flows, forecasting |
| JEL: | E24 E27 E32 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:bofecr:300079&r= |