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on Labour Economics |
| By: | Fackler, Daniel; Stegmaier, Jens; Upward, Richard |
| Abstract: | We provide the first systematic evidence on the effectiveness of a contested policy in Germany to help displaced workers. So-called 'transfer companies' (Transfergesellschaften) employ displaced workers for a fixed period, during which time workers are provided with job-search assistance and are paid a wage which is a substantial fraction of their pre-displacement wage. Using rich and accurate data on workers' employment patterns before and after displacement, we compare the earnings and employment outcomes of displaced workers who entered transfer companies with those that did not. Workers can choose whether or not to accept a position in a transfer company, and therefore we use the availability of a transfer company at the establishment level as an IV in a model of one-sided compliance. Using an event study, we find that workers who enter a transfer company have significantly worse post-displacement outcomes, but we show that this is likely to be the result of negative selection: workers who lack good outside opportunities are more likely to choose to enter the transfer company. In contrast, ITT and IV estimates indicate that the use of a transfer company has a positive and significant effect on employment rates five years after job loss, but no significant effect on earnings. In addition, the transfer company provides significant additional compensation to displaced workers in the first 12 months after job loss. |
| Keywords: | earnings, employment, job loss, transfer companies |
| JEL: | J63 J65 J68 |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:iwhdps:182023&r=lab |
| By: | Arellano-Bover, Jaime (Yale University); San, Shmuel (The Hebrew University of Jerusalem) |
| Abstract: | We study how job mobility, firms, and firm-ladder climbing can shape immigrants' labor market success. Our context is the migration of former Soviet Union Jews to Israel during the 1990s. This setting presents unique institutional features—including the lack of barriers posed by migration regulations—and rich data availability. Differential sorting across firms and differential pay-setting within firms both explain important shares of immigrant-native wage gap levels and dynamics. Immigrants are persistently more mobile than natives and faster at climbing the firm ladder. We uncover a novel, sizable job utility immigrant-native gap when incorporating non-wage amenities into the analysis. |
| Keywords: | immigrants, firms, job mobility, firm ladder, assimilation |
| JEL: | J31 J61 F22 |
| Date: | 2023–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp16389&r=lab |
| By: | Stefanie J. Huber (Department of Economics, University of Bonn and ECONtribute, Germany and Department of Economics, University of Amsterdam and Tinbergen Institute, The Netherlands); Hannah Paule-Paludkiewicz (Deutsche Bundesbank, Frankfurt, Germany) |
| Abstract: | Cross-country differences in the gender gap of higher education attainment are large. In this paper, we study the role of gender norms for this particular gender gap. To isolate the effect of gender norms from institutional and economic factors, we investigate the decisions of second-generation immigrants in the United States to achieve at least a bachelor’s degree. We measure gender norms using economic outcomes as well as beliefs prevailing in the migrants’ parents’ country of origin. We find that gender norms explain part of the observed differences in the gender gap in attaining at least a bachelor’s degree. There is also a sizable effect of gender norms on gender gaps in higher educational attainment levels, such as a master’s degree or a PhD. We confirm the gender norms effect using a sample of siblings, which allows us to hold unobservable and observable household characteristics constant. |
| Keywords: | gender gap, tertiary education, gender norms, culture, second-generation migrants, sibling fixed effects |
| JEL: | I23 I24 J15 J16 J24 Z10 |
| Date: | 2023–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ajk:ajkdps:253&r=lab |
| By: | Simon Bensnes; Ingrid Huitfeldt; Edwin Leuven (Statistics Norway) |
| Abstract: | This paper presents novel methodological and empirical contributions to the child penalty literature. We propose a new estimator that combines elements from standard event study and instrumental variable estimators and demonstrate their relatedness. Our analysis shows that all three approaches yield substantial estimates of the long-term impact of children on the earnings gap between mothers and their partners, commonly known as the child penalty, ranging from 11 to 18 percent. However, the models not only estimate different magnitudes of the child penalty, they also lead to very different conclusions as to whether it is mothers or partners who drive this penalty – the key policy concern. While the event study attributes the entire impact to mothers, our results suggest that maternal responses account for only around one fourth of the penalty. Our paper also has broader implications for event-study designs. In particular, we assess the validity of the event-study assumptions using external information and characterize biases arising from selection in treatment timing. We find that women time fertility as their earnings profile flattens. The implication of this is that the event-study overestimates women’s earnings penalty as it relies on estimates of counterfactual wage profiles that are too high. These new insights in the nature of selection into fertility show that common intuitions regarding parallel trend assumptions may be misleading, and that pre-trends may be uninformative about the sign of the selection bias in the treatment period. |
| Keywords: | Child penalty; female labor supply; event study; instrumental variable |
| JEL: | C36 J13 J16 J21 J22 J31 |
| Date: | 2023–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ssb:dispap:1004&r=lab |
| By: | Henrik Kleven; Camille Landais; Gabriel Leite-Mariante |
| Abstract: | This paper builds a world atlas of child penalties in employment based on micro data from 134 countries. The estimation of child penalties is based on pseudo-event studies of first child birth using cross-sectional data. The pseudo-event studies are validated against true event studies using panel data for a subset of countries. Most countries display clear and sizable child penalties: men and women follow parallel trends before parenthood, but diverge sharply and persistently after parenthood. While this qualitative pattern is pervasive, there is enormous variation in the magnitude of the effects across different regions of the world. The fraction of gender inequality explained by child penalties varies systematically with economic development and proxies for structural transformation. At low levels of development, child penalties represent a minuscule fraction of gender inequality. But as economies develop — incomes rise and the labor market transitions from subsistence agriculture towards salaried work in industry and services — child penalties take over as the dominant driver of gender inequality. Because parenthood is often tied to marriage, we also investigate the existence of marriage penalties in female employment. In general, women experience both marriage and child penalties, but their relative importance depends on economic development. The development process is associated with a substitution from marriage penalties to child penalties, with the former gradually converging to zero. |
| JEL: | D13 D30 J12 J13 J16 J21 J22 O12 |
| Date: | 2023–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:31649&r=lab |
| By: | Christian Dustmann; Hyejin Ku; Tanya Surovtseva |
| Abstract: | We relate origin-destination real price differences to immigrants’ reservation wages and their career trajectories, exploiting administrative data from Germany and the 2004 enlargement of the European Union. We find that immigrants who enter Germany when a unit of earnings from Germany allows for larger consumption at home settle for lower entry wages, but subsequently catch up to those arriving with less favourable exchange rates, through transition to better-paying occupations and firms. Similar patterns hold in the US data. Our analysis offers one explanation for the widespread phenomenon of immigrants’ downgrading, with new implications for immigrant cohort effects and assimilation profiles. |
| Keywords: | real exchange rate, reservation wage, immigrant downgrading, earnings assimilation |
| JEL: | J24 J31 J61 O15 O24 |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_10625&r=lab |
| By: | Serdar Birinci; Youngmin Park; Thomas Pugh; Kurt See |
| Abstract: | Using administrative data from Canada that is unique in providing information on the underlying reasons for and timing of job separations, we document that only 25 percent of mass-layoff separations, as identified through existing methods, are actual layoffs. We uncover significant differences in earnings and employer premium dynamics following layoffs and quits during mass layoffs. We also show that employers undergoing mass layoffs already experience substantial employment contractions prior to the mass layoffs, especially due to early quits. We find that employers lay off less productive workers first, but workers who quit before the mass layoff are not more productive. |
| Keywords: | job displacement; earnings losses; layoffs; quits; employer effects |
| JEL: | E24 E32 J31 J63 J65 |
| Date: | 2023–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedlwp:96776&r=lab |
| By: | Raffaele Guetto (Dipartimento di Statistica, Informatica, Applicazioni "G. Parenti"); Giammarco Alderotti (Dipartimento di Statistica, Informatica, Applicazioni "G. Parenti"); Daniele Vignoli (Dipartimento di Statistica, Informatica, Applicazioni "G. Parenti") |
| Abstract: | This paper contributes to the literature on the family policies-fertility nexus by assessing the potential role of parental leaves, childcare services, and child benefits on fertility through the use of factorial survey experiments (FSE). We focus on Italy, a country whose lowest-low fertility is often traced back to its familistic and sub-protective welfare state. We collected data on 4, 022 respondents aged 20-44 and exposed them to several scenarios characterised by different family policy packages. We asked them to ascribe short-term fertility intentions to a fictitious couple under these different policy scenarios, in a sort of ex-ante evaluation of possible policy reforms. Results show that each of the family-friendly policies we envisioned in the experiment positively impacts ascribed fertility intentions. The availability of full-time, public childcare services seems more relevant than higher child benefits, whereas more generous and gender-equal parental leaves are perceived as less relevant. However, results suggest that only a consistent mix of financial benefits, parental leave schemes, and childcare provisions can potentially boost fertility intentions, whereas marginal changes in single policy levers are most likely ineffective. The results of our FSE point out that a couple’s socioeconomic status is perceived as more important than family policies for fertility decisions, as ascribed fertility intentions increase substantially when both partners of the fictitious couple are employed and household income is high. We conclude by discussing the implications of our findings for policymaking. |
| Keywords: | Family policy; Fertility; Factorial Survey Experiments; Italy |
| JEL: | J13 J18 |
| Date: | 2023–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fir:econom:wp2023_08&r=lab |
| By: | Jonathan M.V. Davis; Kyle Greenberg; Damon Jones |
| Abstract: | We present evidence from a randomized trial of the impact of matching workers to jobs using the deferred acceptance (DA) algorithm. Our setting is the U.S. Army’s annual many-to-one marketplace that matches 10, 000 officers to units. Officers and jobs are partitioned into over 100 distinct markets, our unit of randomization. Matching with DA reduced officers’ attrition in their first year in their new match by 16.7 percent, but we can rule out more than a 10 percent reduction in attrition by the end of their second year. Matching with DA had precise zero effects on performance evaluations and promotions. Although matching with DA increased truthful preference reporting by a statistically significant 10 percent, many officers matched by DA misreport their true preferences. We present new evidence suggesting that communication and coordination of preferences may limit the benefits of DA in matching markets where each side actively ranks the other. |
| JEL: | D47 J01 M5 |
| Date: | 2023–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:31612&r=lab |
| By: | van den Berg, Gerard J. (University of Groningen); Kunaschk, Max (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg); Lang, Julia (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg); Stephan, Gesine (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg); Uhlendorff, Arne (CREST) |
| Abstract: | Predictions of whether newly unemployed individuals will become long-term unemployed are important for the planning and policy mix of unemployment insurance agencies. We analyze unique data on three sources of information on the probability of re-employment within 6 months (RE6), for the same individuals sampled from the inflow into unemployment. First, they were asked for their perceived probability of RE6. Second, their caseworkers revealed whether they expected RE6. Third, random-forest machine learning methods are trained on administrative data on the full inflow, to predict individual RE6. We compare the predictive performance of these measures and consider whether combinations improve this performance. We show that self-reported and caseworker assessments sometimes contain information not captured by the machine learning algorithm. |
| Keywords: | unemployment, expectations, prediction, random forest, unemployment insurance, information |
| JEL: | J64 J65 C55 C53 C41 C21 |
| Date: | 2023–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp16426&r=lab |
| By: | Geyi Zheng; Michael Carter; Nathan Jensen; Laurel Krovetz |
| Abstract: | Poverty reduction programs modeled on BRAC's graduation approach build up both tangible productive assets and intangible psychosocial assets such as self-confidence and the aspiration for upward mobility. The goal of this paper is to better understand how psychosocial factors operate and shape the impact of graduation programs. After deriving a set of hypotheses about the impacts of psychosocial constraints from a dynamic optimization model of the choice between a low income, casual wage-labor occupation and a higher earning entrepreneurial activity, this paper exploits a randomized controlled trial of a graduation program implemented in the pastoralist regions of Northern Kenya. Key empirical findings include that the estimated highly favorable average treatment effects disguise substantial heterogeneity, with beneficiaries who began with severe depressive symptoms gaining little from the program. The RCT's saturation design also allows us to identify substantial spillover effects onto the asset accumulation of women who were not enrolled in the graduation program. Spillovers are also estimated to positively affect non-beneficiary women's preference for upward economic mobility, providing a plausible explanation for their accumulation of capital despite no direct support from the graduation program. The paper draws out the implications of these findings for the cost-effective design and implementation of graduation programs. |
| JEL: | D91 O15 |
| Date: | 2023–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:31611&r=lab |
| By: | Akcigit, Ufuk; Alp, Harun; Diegmann, André; Serrano-Velarde, Nicolas |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates a unique policy designed to maintain employment during the privatization of East German firms after the fall of the Iron Curtain. The policy required new owners of the firms to commit to employment targets, with penalties for non-compliance. Using a dynamic model, we highlight three channels through which employment targets impact firms: distorted employment decisions, increased productivity, and higher exit rates. Our empirical analysis, using a novel dataset and instrumental variable approach, confirms these findings. We estimate a 22% points higher annual employment growth rate, a 14% points higher annual productivity growth, and a 3.6% points higher probability of exit for firms with binding employment targets. Our calibrated model further demonstrates that without these targets, aggregate employment would have been 15% lower after 10 years. Additionally, an alternative policy of productivity investment subsidies proved costly and less effective in the short term. |
| Keywords: | industrial policy, privatizations, productivity, size-dependent regulations |
| JEL: | D22 D24 J08 L25 |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:iwhdps:172023&r=lab |
| By: | Rickman, Dan S.; Wang, Hongbo |
| Abstract: | The policy responses by state and local governments and reactions by individuals to the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic were wide-ranging across the US, often falling along the nation’s political divide. We examine whether Republican states performed better economically, both during the year of the COVID-19 recession and the two years following the recession. We find stronger employment and population growth and smaller increases in unemployment during the COVID-19 recession year in Republican states. But we also find lower per capita income and productivity growth in Republican states during the year of the COVID-19 recession. The employment growth and unemployment advantage in Republican states dissipated during the recovery from the COVID-19 recession such that there was not any longer-term advantage. We compare the COVID-19 recession to the Great Recession and the periods preceding each recession. The population growth advantage in Republican states during the COVID-19 recession was evident in all expansionary and recessionary periods beginning in 2003. We conclude that there was not a clear overall economic benefit to the less restrictive COVID-19 policies and lower virus avoidance by individuals in Republican states, particularly in the longer run. |
| Keywords: | COVD-19; regional growth; state government; republican; democrat |
| JEL: | R12 R23 |
| Date: | 2023–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:118531&r=lab |
| By: | Oeindrila Dube; Sandy Jo MacArthur; Anuj K. Shah |
| Abstract: | What causes adverse policing outcomes, such as excessive uses of force and unnecessary arrests? Prevailing explanations focus on problematic officers or deficient regulations and oversight. Here, we introduce a new, overlooked perspective. We suggest that the cognitive demands inherent in policing can undermine officer decision-making. Unless officers are prepared for these demands, they may jump to conclusions too quickly without fully considering alternative ways of seeing a situation. This can lead to adverse policing outcomes. To test this perspective, we created a new training that teaches officers to more deliberately consider different ways of interpreting the situations they encounter. We evaluated this training using a randomized controlled trial with 2, 070 officers from the Chicago Police Department. In a series of lab assessments, we find that treated officers were significantly more likely to consider a wider range of evidence and develop more explanations for subjects' actions. Critically, we also find that training affected officer performance in the field, leading to reductions in uses of force, discretionary arrests, and arrests of Black civilians. Meanwhile, officer activity levels remained unchanged, and trained officers were less likely to be injured on duty. Our results highlight the value of considering the cognitive aspects of policing and demonstrate the power of using behaviorally informed approaches to improve officer decision-making and policing outcomes. |
| JEL: | C91 C93 D03 D91 J08 K40 K42 |
| Date: | 2023–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:31651&r=lab |
| By: | Simone d’alessandro (University of Pisa); Tiziano Distefano (University of Florence); Guilherme Spinato Morlin (University of Pisa); Davide Villani (Joint Research Centre – European Commission) |
| Abstract: | Several studies argue that the latest advancements in technology could result in a continuous decrease in the employment level, the labour share of income and higher inequalities. This paper investigates policy responses to the rise of labour-saving technologies and their potential negative effects on employment and inequality. Using EUROGREEN (an Input-Output-Stock-Flow model), we assess how three different policy measures – basic income (BI), job guarantee (JG), and working time reduction without loss of payment (WTR) – could affect the economy in the wake of a technological shock. We build different scenarios in which the effects of these policies are implemented against a reference setting of high labour productivity growth. We evaluate the impact of these policies on per capita GDP, the Gini coefficient, the labour share, the unemployment rate, and the deficit-to-GDP ratio. We find that these policies could be effective in counterbalancing some of the negative effects of labour-saving technologies. JG reduces the level of unemployment significantly and permanently, whereas BI and WTR only temporarily affect the unemployment rate. WTR effectively increases the wage share and generates the lowest deficit-to-GDP ratio in the long run. The introduction of a wealth tax further reduces inequality and helps to offset the increase in public spending associated with JG and BI. A mix of these policies delivers the highest per capita GDP, lowest unemployment rate, and best distributive outcomes. |
| Keywords: | Labour-saving technologies; input-output; inequality; policy scenario analysis; automation; structural change; robot |
| Date: | 2023–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipt:dclass:202309&r=lab |
| By: | Hoang, Thon T.C.; Nguyen, Dung T.K. |
| Abstract: | Some studies show that the higher share of female politicians enhances the implementation of policies that benefiting for women such as childcare services, childcare spots, antenatal and childhood health services, and early education. As a result, they encourage women to participate in labor market. It is also suggested that women have higher tax compliance level and countries having higher proportion of women undergo lower corruption level. This research attempts to examine the relationship between female politicians and tax revenue mobilization. If the positive relationship is proven, there is a fiscal reason to support female politicians and the policies benefiting women. In this study, panel data of 137 countries from 1998 to 2019 will be combined with fixed effect models. The results show the positive influence of the female politicians on tax mobilization. The positive influence is still significant when year effect, interaction variables with income groups, and exponents are included in the model. The study also indicates that while the presence of female politicians in parliament has no discernible impact on tax revenue in high-income groups, in other income groups, a 1 percent increase in female representation in parliament corresponds to a 0.1 percent increase in tax revenue as a percentage of GDP. |
| Keywords: | Female politicians, tax mobilization, fixed effect, high-order polynomial |
| JEL: | H20 J16 |
| Date: | 2023–08–17 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:118367&r=lab |
| By: | Florian Eugster (University of St. Gallen; Swiss Finance Institute); Jenni Kallunki (University of Oulu); Juha-Pekka Kallunki (University of Oulu; Aalto University; Stockholm School of Economics); Henrik Nilsson (Stockholm School of Economics) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the effect of managers’ personality trait of extraversion on the voluntary disclosure of their firms. Our results from analyzing archival data from Sweden show that the extraversion scores of CEOs and CFOs obtained from psychological tests are positively associated with the voluntary disclosure scores of their firms. The effect of manager extraversion on disclosure is moreover stronger when managerial discretion or managerial job demands are higher. We also find that extraversion affects managers’ disclosure styles during earnings conference calls. |
| Keywords: | extraversion, disclosure, managerial traits |
| JEL: | M41 G10 D91 |
| Date: | 2023–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:chf:rpseri:rp2375&r=lab |
| By: | Gustavo González |
| Abstract: | This paper constructs and calibrates a parsimonious two-country dynamic general equilibrium model of entrepreneurship and migration. Countries differ in their TFP and degree of financial frictions. The model is calibrated to replicate the economic and migratory situation of the United States and the rest of the world. I evaluate the impact of changing migration barriers on GDP per capita, average firms productivity, business ownership rates, and consumption on both regions. I find that migration barriers have a non-monotone impact on the average productivity of the host coun-try, depending this on the entrepreneurial skill and mass of people that move in and are displaced by entrants. A migration policy that favors the entry of foreign people with a higher entrepreneurial drive would reduce profits of native entrepreneurs, but would make the economy more efficient and would lift the welfare of workers of the host economy. |
| Date: | 2023–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:chb:bcchwp:985&r=lab |
| By: | Valerija Botric (The Institute of Economics, Zagreb); Sonja Radas (The Institute of Economics, Zagreb); Bruno Skrinjaric (The Institute of Economics, Zagreb) |
| Abstract: | This paper aims to shed light on gender differences in firm performance in a period that entails an unprecedented crisis with specific effects on gender roles, i.e., COVID-19. The analysis focuses on Croatian high-tech manufacturing and knowledge-intensive service sector SMEs. Previous literature indicates that the obstacles the SMEs face may be even more significant for women-owned firms. Specifically, women entrepreneurs find it more challenging to secure social and financial capital. Women often face restrictions on their working hours due to societal pressure and family obligations, and they are rarely well-connected because they are often not members of influential business networks. Literature also suggests that the usual pressures on female working hours have disproportionally increased during the COVID-19 imposed lockdowns, so the general expectation is that women entrepreneurs were not able to cope equally with the changed market circumstances. In this study, we consider a causation-effectuation management framework to investigate how women- and men-owned SMEs used these management styles to address the business challenges in the COVID-19 crisis. Our contribution aims explicitly to answer the invitation made in recent literature to explore how gender influences the effects of the four dimensions of effectuation on firm performance. |
| Keywords: | women entrepreneurship; firm performance; management styles; COVID-19 |
| JEL: | B54 J16 L26 |
| Date: | 2023–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iez:wpaper:2301&r=lab |
| By: | Aliakbar Akbaritabar (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany); Maciej J. Dańko (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany); Xinyi Zhao (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany); Emilio Zagheni (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany) |
| Abstract: | The migration of scholars has been often studied across countries, however, these studies have rarely focused on sub-national regions. We used data on 28+ million Scopus publications of 8+ million unique authors and geo-coded the affiliation addresses. Our results show that by focusing on the sub-national regions, the share of mobile scholars increases from 8% to 12.4%. We found that in all continents when a sub-national region is attractive for international migrants, it is also attractive for internal ones. The reverse is not true, though. For most continents, a depopulation is happening where scholars move abroad and their position is filled by scholars arriving from other sub-national regions inside the country. In the US, as an example, states in the mid-eastern area have the highest net rate of scholars leaving for other destinations inside the US, mostly on the west coast. In Europe, multiple countries show a similar trend that more developed provinces receive scholars from internal origins and send scholars to international destinations. Our results have implications for the global circulation of academic talent by adding more nuance to the generally accepted image of brain drain and brain gain. We highlight the interrelation between internal and international migration, specifically for regions constantly losing their academic workforce. |
| Keywords: | World, internal migration, international migration, migration |
| JEL: | J1 Z0 |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2023-038&r=lab |
| By: | Kasey Buckles; Adrian Haws; Joseph Price; Haley E.B. Wilbert |
| Abstract: | The Census Tree is the largest-ever database of record links among the historical U.S. censuses, with over 700 million links for people living in the United States between 1850 and 1940. These high-quality links allow researchers in the social sciences and other disciplines to construct a longitudinal dataset that is highly representative of the population. In this paper, we describe our process for creating the Census Tree, beginning with a collection of over 317 million links contributed by the users of a free online genealogy platform. We then use these links as training data for a machine learning algorithm to make new matches, and incorporate other recent efforts to link the historical U.S. censuses. Finally, we introduce a procedure for filtering the links and adjudicating disagreements. Our complete Census Tree achieves match rates between adjacent censuses that are between 69 and 86% for men, and between 58 and 79% for women. The Census Tree includes women and Black Americans at unprecedented rates, containing 314 million links for the former and more than 41 million for the latter. |
| JEL: | C81 J10 N01 |
| Date: | 2023–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:31671&r=lab |
| By: | Oschinski, Matthias |
| Abstract: | We assess the impact of artificial intelligence (AI) on Germany’s labour market applying the methodology on suitability for machine learning (SML) scores established by Brynjolfsson et al., (2018). However, this study introduces two innovative approaches to the conventional methodology. Instead of relying on traditional crowdsourcing platforms for obtaining ratings on automatability, this research exploits the chatbot capabilities of OpenAI's ChatGPT. Additionally, in alignment with the focus on the German labor market, the study extends the application of SML scores to the European Classification of Skills, Competences, Qualifications and Occupations (ESCO). As such, a distinctive contribution of this study lies in the assessment of ChatGPT's effectiveness in gauging the automatability of skills and competencies within the evolving landscape of AI. Furthermore, the study enhances the applicability of its findings by directly mapping SML scores to the European ESCO classification, rendering the results more pertinent for labor market analyses within the European Union. Initial findings indicate a measured impact of AI on a majority of the 13, 312 distinct ESCO skills and competencies examined. A more detailed analysis reveals that AI exhibits a more pronounced influence on tasks related to computer utilization and information processing. Activities involving decision-making, communication, research, collaboration, and specific technical proficiencies related to medical care, food preparation, construction, and precision equipment operation receive relatively lower scores. Notably, the study highlights the comparative advantage of human employees in transversal skills like creative thinking, collaboration, leadership, the application of general knowledge, attitudes, values, and specific manual and physical skills. Applying our rankings to German labour force data at the 2-digit ISCO level suggests that, in contrast to previous waves of automation, AI may also impact non-routine cognitive occupations. In fact, our results show that business and administration professionals as well as science and engineering associate professionals receive relatively higher rankings compared to teaching professionals, health associate professionals and personal service workers. Ultimately, the research underscores that the overall ramifications of AI on the labor force will be contingent upon the underlying motivations for its deployment. If the primary impetus is cost reduction, AI implementation might follow historical patterns of employment losses with limited gains in productivity. As such, public policy has an important role to play in recalibrating incentives to prioritize machine usefulness over machine intelligence. |
| Keywords: | Generative AI, Labour, Skills Suitability for Machine Learning, German labour market, ESCO |
| JEL: | A1 J0 |
| Date: | 2023–08–14 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:118300&r=lab |
| By: | Daysal, N. Meltem (University of Copenhagen); Lovenheim, Michael F. (Cornell University); Wasser, David N. (US Census Bureau) |
| Abstract: | Rising wealth inequality has spurred an increased interest in understanding how and why wealth is correlated across generations. We exploit plausibly exogenous variation in housing wealth driven by home price changes in different areas to isolate the causal impact of parental housing wealth during different childhood periods on children's long-run wealth accumulation. Using population-level Danish administrative data, we find that 27% and 25% of each Krone of parental housing wealth change during early-childhood is transmitted to children's overall and housing wealth in adulthood, respectively. The corresponding transmission rates for parental housing wealth changes during middle-childhood are 25% and 15%, with a transmission to non-housing wealth of 10%. There is little evidence of transmission of parental housing wealth changes that occur during the teenage years. Examining mechanisms, we find that parental housing wealth changes in early and middle-childhood lead to modest increases in adult children's home ownership, educational attainment, and earnings. However, earnings and education can explain only 20-30% of the intergenerational transmission of parental wealth gains during these periods. We argue that the transmission of parental housing wealth changes in childhood are driven in large part by changes to unobserved household environment and parental behaviors that are passed on to children and shape their savings behavior in adulthood. |
| Keywords: | intergenerational wealth transmission, housing wealth |
| JEL: | J62 D31 |
| Date: | 2023–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp16429&r=lab |
| By: | Agarwal, Vikas; Jiang, Wei; Luo, Yuchen; Zou, Hong |
| Abstract: | Using the recent AAPI Hate around 2020-2021 as an exogenous shock, we show that sociopolitical racial animus impairs the performance of mutual funds managed by at least one Asian female manager, the most targeted group by the Hate-induced violence. The decline in performance is greater in states with higher levels of anti-Asian animus, when the portfolio is more actively managed, has an aggressive investment objective, or when the Asian female manager plays a more influential role in fund management. The poor fund performance is not attributed to fund investors' redemption, low managerial quality, increased childcare burden, concerns for the pandemic situation of family members in home countries, or solely workplace discrimination. Placebo tests show that the same performance decline is absent among funds managed by non-Asian-looking minority and index funds. Taken together, the evidence is consistent with perceived vulnerability to the AAPI Hate crimes inducing distraction and stress and leading to impaired performance. Corroborating this view, we only find some limited evidence in a subset of Asian male managers that they suffer from a performance decline when they are based in states with higher levels of anti-Asian animus. Our study contributes to the scarce evidence on the impact of sociopolitical racial animus on productivity and explores racial animus beyond the workplace and marketplace. |
| Keywords: | Racial Animus, Mutual Funds |
| JEL: | G23 J15 |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:cfrwps:2305&r=lab |
| By: | Petralia, Sergio; Kemeny, Thomas; Storper, Michael |
| Abstract: | Tacit knowledge – ideas that cannot readily be meaningfully and completely communicated – has long been considered a precursor to scientific and technological advances. Using words and phrases found in the universe of USPTO patents 1940-2020, we propose a new method of measuring tacit knowledge and its progressive codification. We uncover a discontinuity in the production of highly tacit technologies. Before 1980, highly- and less-tacit inventions are evenly distributed among inventors, organizations, scientific domains and subnational regions. After 1980, inventors of highly tacit patents become relatively rare, and increasingly concentrated in domains and locations. The economic payoffs to tacit knowledge also change, as it starts unequally rewarding high-income workers. This suggests a role for tacit knowledge in contributing to the rise in income inequality since 1980. |
| JEL: | J1 |
| Date: | 2023–09–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:120154&r=lab |