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on Labour Economics |
| By: | Bingley, Paul (VIVE - The Danish Centre for Applied Social Science); Cappellari, Lorenzo (Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore); Ovidi, Marco (Catholic University Milan) |
| Abstract: | We investigate the stages of childhood at which parental job loss is most consequential for their child's education. Using Danish administrative data linking parents experiencing plant closures to their children, we compare end-of-school outcomes to matched peers and to closures hitting after school completion age. Parental job loss disproportionally reduces test taking, scores, and high school enrolment among children exposed during infancy (age 0-1). Effects are largest for low-income families and low-achieving children. The causal chain from job loss to education likely works through reduced family income. Maternal time investment partially offsets the effect of reduced income. |
| Keywords: | parental labor market shocks, intergenerational mobility, child development |
| JEL: | J13 D10 I24 |
| Date: | 2023–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp16367&r=lab |
| By: | Mansour, Hani (University of Colorado Denver); Medina, Pamela (University of Toronto); Velasquez, Andrea (University of Colorado Denver) |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the gendered labor market and demographic effects of trade liberalization in Peru. To identify these effects, we use variation in the exposure of local labor markets to import competition from China based on their baseline industrial composition. On average, the increase in Chinese imports during 1998-2008 led to a persistent decline in the employment share of low-educated female workers but had smaller and transitory effects on the employment of low-educated men. In contrast to the predictions of Becker's model of household specialization, we find that the increase in import competition during this period increased the share of single low-educated people and decreased their marriage rates. There is little evidence that import competition affected fertility decisions. The results highlight the role of gains from joint consumption in marriage formation. |
| Keywords: | import competition, marriage formation, fertility |
| JEL: | J16 J12 J13 J23 |
| Date: | 2023–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp16364&r=lab |
| By: | Shen, Kailing (Australian National University); Zhu, Yanran (Australian National University) |
| Abstract: | Job posting counts (JPCs) are increasingly being used as indicators of employment dynamics, but they have not received sufficient research attention to establish their value as a metric of these dynamics. This study aims to assess the efficacy of the traditional survey-based unemployment rate versus big-data-based JPCs in capturing labor market transitions in the United States. Using the Current Population Survey, our comparison focuses on the ability of these two types of metrics to predict individuals' transitions between employment and unemployment. Unlike with the unemployment rate, we not only examine the raw national JPCs but also consider four additional versions of JPCs that measure labor demand at various disaggregated levels. Our findings suggest that JPCs and the unemployment rate provide comparable predictive power for labor market transitions, with each capturing different aspects of the variation in these transitions. The estimated coefficients of both types of metrics remain statistically significant when considered together. Notably, the correlation between the unemployment rate and labor market transitions switches signs when year fixed effects are added, but a similar phenomenon is not observed when JPCs are examined. Among the various versions of JPCs, the most refined measure—JPCs by state, occupation, and industry—demonstrates the strongest predictive capabilities, outperforming other JPC measures and the unemployment rate. |
| Keywords: | job posting counts, labor market transitions, unemployment rate |
| JEL: | J64 J23 J63 |
| Date: | 2023–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp16373&r=lab |
| By: | Piasenti, Stefano (Humboldt University); Valente, Marica (University of Innsbruck); Van Veldhuizen, Roel (Department of Economics, Lund University); Pfeifer, Gregor (University of Sydney) |
| Abstract: | How do men and women differ in their persistence after experiencing failure in a competitive environment? We tackle this question by combining a large online experiment (N=2, 086) with machine learning. We find that when losing is unequivocally due to merit, both men and women exhibit a significant decrease in subsequent tournament entry. However, when the prior tournament is unfair, i.e., a loss is no longer necessarily based on merit, women are more discouraged than men. These results suggest that transparent meritocratic criteria may play a key role in preventing women from falling behind after experiencing a loss. |
| Keywords: | Competitiveness; Gender; Fairness; Machine learning; Online experiment |
| JEL: | C14 C90 D91 J16 |
| Date: | 2023–08–14 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:lunewp:2023_007&r=lab |
| By: | Steven J. Davis; Pawel M. Krolikowski |
| Abstract: | We design and field an innovative survey of unemployment insurance (UI) recipients that yields new insights about wage stickiness on the layoff margin. Most UI recipients express a willingness to accept wage cuts of 5-10 percent to save their jobs, and one third would accept a 25 percent cut. Yet worker-employer discussions about cuts in pay, benefits or hours in lieu of layoffs are exceedingly rare. When asked why employers don't propose job-saving pay cuts, four-in-ten UI recipients don't know. Sixteen percent say cuts would undermine morale or lead the best workers to quit, and 39 percent don't think wage cuts would save their jobs. For lost union jobs, 45 percent say contractual restrictions prevent wage cuts. Among those on permanent layoff who reject our hypothetical pay cuts, half say they have better outside options, and 38 percent regard the proposed pay cut as insulting. An estimated one-quarter of the layoffs violate the condition for bilaterally efficient separations that holds in leading theories of job separations, frictional unemployment, and job ladders. We draw on our findings and other evidence to assess theories of wage stickiness and its role in layoffs. |
| JEL: | E24 J31 J63 J65 |
| Date: | 2023–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:31528&r=lab |
| By: | Kurt Graden Lunsford |
| Abstract: | I show that business cycles can generate most of the low-frequency movements in the unemployment rate. First, I provide evidence that the unemployment rate is stationary, while its flows have unit roots. Then, I model the log unemployment rate as the error correction term of log labor flows in a vector error correction model (VECM) with intercepts that change over the business cycle. Feeding historical expansions and recessions into the VECM generates large low-frequency movements in the unemployment rate. Frequent recessions from the late 1960s to the early 1980s interrupt labor market recoveries and ratchet the unemployment rate upward. Long expansions in the 1980s and 1990s undo this upward ratcheting. Finally, the VECM predicts that the unemployment rate will be near 3.6 percent after a 10-year expansion and that lower unemployment rates are possible with longer expansions. |
| Keywords: | cointegration; common trend; HP trend; labor flows; longer-run unemployment rate |
| JEL: | C32 E24 E32 J64 |
| Date: | 2023–08–17 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedcwq:96582&r=lab |
| By: | Adrjan, Pawel (Indeed Hiring Lab); Gudell, Svenja (Indeed Hiring Lab); Nix, Emily (University of Southern California); Shrivastava, Allison (Indeed Hiring Lab); Sockin, Jason (IZA); Starr, Evan (Smith School of Business) |
| Abstract: | Following the June 24, 2022 Dobbs v. Jackson Supreme Court ruling, which overturned the federal right to abortion established in Roe v. Wade, hundreds of employers publicly announced policies covering out-of-state employee travel for abortions and related care. Leveraging data from Indeed and Glassdoor, we first document that companies with more female and more Democratic-leaning employees and executives were more likely to announce these policies. We then examine the causal impact such announcements had on recruitment, job satisfaction, and pay by introducing a new methodology to recover similar employers who did not make announcements using workers' revealed preferences in job search. Difference-in-differences estimates reveal that for announcing companies: (i) vacancies received more job seeker interest, particularly in Democratic-leaning states and female-dominated jobs in states with "trigger" laws that outlawed abortion, (ii) satisfaction with management fell amongst existing employees, particularly in male-dominated jobs, and (iii) posted wages increased, especially for companies where employee sentiment declined. These results highlight the complicated trade-off employers face from engaging in sociopolitical dialogue, in particular how signals of company culture can help recruit new workers but alienate current ones. |
| Keywords: | culture, abortion, politics, gender, job search, job satisfaction |
| JEL: | J13 J16 M14 |
| Date: | 2023–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp16360&r=lab |
| By: | Nandwani, Bharti; Roychowdhury, Punarjit |
| Abstract: | The paper examines the impact of a rural roads construction program in India on women's outcomes. While spatial integration can provide women with increased education and employment opportunities, the extent of benefits might be limited by underlying gender norms. We identify the impact of the policy by exploiting the program rule that assigned roads based on the village population. Using a two-way fixed effect methodology, we find that increase in rural roads construction lowers mobility restrictions faced by women and improves norms around domestic violence. However, the result are mixed with respect to participation in other decision making and financial autonomy. Additionally, while we find positive impact on education, there is no impact on employment outcomes for females. We argue that a possible reason for a partial improvement in women outcomes could be gendered impact of the policy - men benefit more in terms of employment than women. |
| Keywords: | Gender Norms, India, Roads, Women Empowerment |
| JEL: | J16 O12 |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:1320&r=lab |
| By: | Tara Bedi (Department of Economics, Trinity College Dublin); Anu Jose (Central Bank of Ireland); Michael King (Department of Economics, Trinity College Dublin) |
| Abstract: | To understand interactions between mental accounting, spousal control and couple’s communication, informed by recent innovations in the fin-tech space, we mimicked practical iterations of income type and spousal monitoring, in a pre-registered lab-in-the-field experiment with 1, 008 couples in Kolkata, India. The experimental design was a cross randomisation where, first, for half the sample the female spouse worked for resources and the other half received money as a gift, before allocation decision were made under five different monitoring frameworks that mirror potential iterations in account type: private, private labelled, visible, approval and negotiation. Our findings highlight the importance of female labour market participation and the mental accounting of earned resources. Earned income by wives was allocated to a greater extent to accounts over which she has more control. While no overall effect of workfare on consumption decisions was found, we did find that, for women who have low control over money, earning money induces her to spend more on her personal consumption. Labelling newly acquired resources for household purposes in individual accounts for both wife and husband did not alter expenditure patterns, indicating a failure of the mental accounting of household resources in individual accounts. Spousal visibility of male decision-making ensures they allocate more towards the collective and away from themselves. Conversely, spousal transparency and communication did not alter wives allocation patterns, but such innovations came at a cost for the less empowered: in households where wife has low control over money, or is more risk averse, visibility of her decisions by husband or an approval requirement from her husband for her decisions leads her to allocate more to accounts he has control in. Our findings provide important insights for the design and delivery of social protection programmes, and suggests the existence of potential welfare gains of shared, or joint, financial products for the management of household resources. |
| Keywords: | mentalaccounting, intrahouseholdallocation, gender, India |
| JEL: | J16 G50 D13 |
| Date: | 2023–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcd:tcduee:tep1323&r=lab |
| By: | Riku Laine (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany); Mikko Aaltonen; Mikko Myrskylä (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany); Pekka Martikainen (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany) |
| Abstract: | Life-course criminology has recently begun to focus on the sociohistorical context, with the use of multi-cohort studies. However, those studies have mostly concentrated on offending or aggregate crime rates. Desistance research, in turn, has largely overlooked the impact of the broader sociohistorical context. Based on recent work on the sociohistorical context and offending, we propose that context can also shape the desistance process. We examined the employment, housing, and marriages of Finnish first-time prisoners released between 1995 and 2014 (N = 23 358) until 2019. We quantified the link between selected macro-level indicators and these three outcomes using applied age-period-cohort-models. The results showed that the outcomes evolved in separate ways post-release. Employment and marriage became more common, but only employment showed distinct periodical changes. The probability of living in housing remained relatively stable. A higher level of national unemployment was associated with all outcomes. The association between background factors and the outcomes changed depending on release year. Post-prison societal integration should not be measured by recidivism alone. Desistance studies should address the societal context when comparing different times or countries. Early studies may require replication if the associations between demographic factors and desistance outcomes are subject to change. |
| JEL: | J1 Z0 |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2023-037&r=lab |
| By: | Belloc, Filippo (University of Siena); Burdin, Gabriel (Leeds University Business School); Dughera, Stefano (University Paris Ouest-Nanterre); Landini, Fabio (University of Parma) |
| Abstract: | Advances in artificial intelligence and data analytics have notably expanded employers' monitoring and surveillance capabilities, facilitating the accurate observability of work effort. There is an ongoing debate among academics and policymakers about the productivity and broader welfare implications of digital monitoring (DM) technologies. In this context, many countries confer information, consultation and codetermination rights to employee representation (ER) bodies on matters related to the workplace governance of these technologies. Using a cross-sectional sample of more than 21000 European establishments, we document a positive association between ER and the utilization of DM technologies. We also find a positive effect of ER on DM utilization in the context of a local-randomization regression discontinuity analysis that exploits size-contingent policy rules governing the operation of ER bodies in Europe. Finally, in an exploratory analysis, we find a positive association between DM and process innovations, particularly in establishments where ER bodies are present and a large fraction of workers perform jobs that require finding solutions to unfamiliar problems. We interpret these findings through the lens of a labor discipline model in which the presence of ER bodies affect employer's decision to invest in DM technologies. |
| Keywords: | digital-based monitoring, algorithmic management, HR analytics, transparency, innovation, worker voice, employee representation |
| JEL: | M5 J50 O32 O33 |
| Date: | 2023–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp16362&r=lab |
| By: | Thomas Baudin (IESEG School of Management, Univ. Lille); David de la Croix (UNIVERSITE CATHOLIQUE DE LOUVAIN, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES)) |
| Abstract: | We examine the relationship between family size and human capital among academics in Northern Europe over the two centuries prior to the Industrial Revolution. To measure scholars' human capital, we develop a novel and consistent approach based on their publications. We find that scholars with a high number of publications shifted from having more siblings to having fewer than others during the first half of the 18th century. This shift is consistent with an evolutionary growth model in which the initial Malthusian constraint leads the high human capital families to reproduce more, before being endogenously substituted by a Beckerian constraint with a child quality-quantity tradeoff. Our results support a reinterpretation of the Galor and Moav (2002)'s approach, in which the decline of Malthusian constraints is linked to human capital accumulation during the 18th century. |
| Keywords: | Fertility, Human Capital, Premodern Europe, Universities, Academies, Evolution, Natural Selection, Malthusian Stagnation |
| JEL: | O11 O40 J11 J13 N13 N33 |
| Date: | 2023–08–14 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ctl:louvir:2023015&r=lab |
| By: | MUKOYAMA Toshihiko; TAKAYAMA Naoki; TANAKA Satoshi |
| Abstract: | This study analyzes how labor-market frictions interact with firms' decisions to reallocate workers across different occupations during labor-market polarization. We compare the patterns of occupational reallocation within and across firms in the United States and Germany in recent years. We find that within-firm reallocation contributes significantly to the decline in employment in routine occupations in Germany, but much less in the United States. We construct a general equilibrium model of firm dynamics and find that the model with different firing taxes can replicate the difference in firm-level adjustment patterns across these countries. We conduct two counterfactual experiments, highlighting the different roles played by the within-firm cost of reorganizing occupational mix and across-firm frictions created by firing taxes. |
| Date: | 2023–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eti:dpaper:23051&r=lab |
| By: | Bennhoff, Frederik H. (University of Zurich); García, Jorge Luis (Clemson University); Leaf, Duncan Ermini (University of Southern California) |
| Abstract: | We demonstrate the social efficiency of investing in high-quality early childhood education using newly collected data from the HighScope Perry Preschool Project. The data analyzed are the longest follow-up of any randomized early childhood education program. Annual observations of participant outcomes up to midlife allow us to provide a cost-benefit analysis without relying on forecasts. Adult outcomes on the participants' children and siblings allow us to quantify spillover benefits. The program generates a benefit-cost ratio of 6.0 (p-value = 0.03). Spillover benefits increase this ratio to 7.5 (p-value = 0.00). |
| Keywords: | cost-benefit analysis, early childhood education, intergenerational mobility, intergenerational program evaluation, life-cycle benefits, spillover effects |
| JEL: | J13 I28 C93 H43 |
| Date: | 2023–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp16370&r=lab |
| By: | Borgschulte, Mark (University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign); Guenzel, Marius (Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania); Liu, Canyao (Yale University); Malmendier, Ulrike (University of California, Berkeley) |
| Abstract: | We assess the long-term effects of managerial stress on aging and mortality. First, we show that exposure to industry distress shocks during the Great Recession produces visible signs of aging in CEOs. Applying neural-network based machine-learning techniques to pre- and post-distress pictures, we estimate an increase in so-called apparent age by one year. Second, using data on CEOs since the mid-1970s, we estimate a 1.1-year decrease in life expectancy after an industry distress shock, but a two-year increase when anti-takeover laws insulate CEOs from market discipline. The estimated health costs are significant, also relative to other known health risks. |
| Keywords: | managerial stress, life expectancy, apparent-age estimation, job demands, industry distress, visual machine-learning, corporate governance |
| JEL: | G34 I12 M12 |
| Date: | 2023–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp16366&r=lab |
| By: | Jesse Matheson (Department of Economics, University of Sheffield, Sheffield S1 4DT, UK); Brendon McConnell (University of Southampton, UK); James Rockey (University of Birmingham, UK); Argyris Sakalis (Department of Economics, University of Sheffield, Sheffield S1 4DT, UK) |
| Abstract: | We examine the impact of the working from home (WFH) shift on neighborhood-level burglary rates, employing detailed street-level crime data and a neighborhood WFH measure. We find a one standard deviation increase in WFH (9.5pp) leads to a persistent 4% drop in burglaries. A spatial search model identifies two deterrence channels: occupancy, as burglars avoid occupied houses, and “eyes on the street”. We provide evidence supporting both channels. Despite crime displacement to low WFH areas offseting 30% of the burglary reduction, a hedonic pricing model reveals significant willingness to pay for high WFH areas, especially those with high ex-ante burglary risk. |
| Keywords: | Working From Home, Property Crime, Spatial Spillovers, Hedonic House Price Models |
| JEL: | H75 K42 R20 |
| Date: | 2023–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:shf:wpaper:2023020&r=lab |
| By: | Morgan Frank; Yong-Yeol Ahn; Esteban Moro |
| Abstract: | Is artificial intelligence (AI) disrupting jobs and creating unemployment? Despite many attempts to quantify occupations' exposure to AI, inconsistent validation obfuscates the relative benefits of each approach. A lack of disaggregated labor outcome data, including unemployment data, further exacerbates the issue. Here, we assess which models of AI exposure predict job separations and unemployment risk using new occupation-level unemployment data by occupation from each US state's unemployment insurance office spanning 2010 through 2020. Although these AI exposure scores have been used by governments and industry, we find that individual AI exposure models are not predictive of unemployment rates, unemployment risk, or job separation rates. However, an ensemble of those models exhibits substantial predictive power suggesting that competing models may capture different aspects of AI exposure that collectively account for AI's variable impact across occupations, regions, and time. Our results also call for dynamic, context-aware, and validated methods for assessing AI exposure. Interactive visualizations for this study are available at https://sites.pitt.edu/~mrfrank/uiRiskDe mo/. |
| Date: | 2023–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2308.02624&r=lab |