nep-lab New Economics Papers
on Labour Economics
Issue of 2023‒08‒21
25 papers chosen by
Joseph Marchand
University of Alberta

  1. The Gender Gap in Earnings Losses after Job Displacement By Hannah Illing; Johannes Schmieder; Simon Trenkle
  2. Job Displacement and Migrant Labor Market Assimilation By Maria Balgova; Hannah Illing
  3. The integration of migrants in the German labor market: Evidence over 50 years By Berbée, Paul; Stuhler, Jan
  4. The long-term integration of European refugees: Swedish experiences after the Yugoslav Wars By Åslund, Olof; Liljeberg, Linus; Roman, Sara
  5. Skills, parental sorting, and child inequality By Nybom, Martin; Plug, Erik; van der Klaauw, Bas; Ziegler, Lennart
  6. Joining late, leaving early? Immigrant-native disparities in labor market exit By Åslund, Olof; Larsson, Fredrik; Laun, Lisa
  7. The Job Ladder: Inflation vs. Reallocation By Giuseppe Moscarini; Fabien Postel-Vinay
  8. The Age of Mass Migration in Argentina: Social Mobility, Effects on Growth, and Selection Patterns By Federico Droller; Martin Fiszbein; Santiago Pérez
  9. Caregiving and Labor Supply: New Evidence from Administrative Data By Nicole Maestas; Matt Messel; Yulya Truskinovsky
  10. The (Option-) Value of Overstaying By Romuald Méango; François Poinas
  11. Who Does the Talking Here? The Impact of Gender Composition on Team Interactions By David Hardt; Lea Mayer; Johannes Rincke
  12. Monopsony, Efficiency, and the Regularization of Undocumented Immigrants By George J. Borjas; Anthony Edo
  13. Assessing the Fertility Effects of Childcare Cost Subsidies: Evidence from the Child and Dependent Care Tax Credit By Averett, Susan L.; Wang, Yang
  14. Displacement Effects in Manufacturing and Structural Change By Ines Helm; Alice Kuegler; Uta Schoenberg
  15. An Indian Enigma? Labour Market Impacts of the World's Largest Livelihoods Program By Deshpande, Ashwini; Khanna, Shantanu; Walia, Daksh
  16. Outside options and worker motivation By Alexander Ahammer; Matthias Fahn; Flora Stiftinger
  17. Unemployment, Alcohol and Tobacco Use: Separating State Dependence from Unobserved By Monica Deza
  18. Employee Performance and Mental Well-Being: The Mitigating Effects of Transformational Leadership during Crisis By Kristina Czura; Florian Englmaier; Hoa Ho; Lisa Spantig
  19. Femicide Rates in Mexican Cities along the US-Mexico Border By Pedro H. Albuquerque; Prasad R. Vemala
  20. Remote Work, Foreign Residents, and the Future of Global Cities By Pedro Teles; João Guerreiro; Sérgio Rebelo
  21. Globalization and Inequality in Latin America By Rafael Dix-Carneiro; Brian K. Kovak
  22. Can Information and Alternatives to Irregular Migration Reduce "Backway" Migration from The Gambia? By Bah, Tijan L.; Batista, Catia; Gubert, Flore; McKenzie, David
  23. The Demographic Challenges to Ukraine’s Economic Reconstruction By Maryna Tverdostup
  24. Diversifying Society’s Leaders? The Causal Effects of Admission to Highly Selective Private Colleges By Raj Chetty; David J. Deming; John N. Friedman
  25. Minimum wage policy and inequality in Latin America and the Caribbean By Gindling, T.H.; Ronconi, Lucas

  1. By: Hannah Illing (University of Bonn, IAB, IZA); Johannes Schmieder (Boston University, NBER, and IZA); Simon Trenkle (Institute of Labor Economics (IZA), IAB)
    Abstract: We compare men and women who are displaced from similar jobs by applying an event study design combined with propensity score matching and reweighting to administrative data from Germany. After a mass layoff, women’s earnings losses are about 35% higher than men’s, with the gap persisting five years after displacement. This is partly explained by women taking up more part-time employment, but even women’s full-time wage losses are almost 50% higher than men’s. Parenthood magnifies the gender gap sharply. Finally, displaced women spend less time on job search and apply for lower-paid jobs, highlighting the importance of labor supply decisions.
    Keywords: Job Displacement, Gender Wage Gap, Job Search
    JEL: J63 J16
    Date: 2023–07
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ajk:ajkdps:247&r=lab
  2. By: Maria Balgova (IZA); Hannah Illing (University of Bonn, IAB, IZA)
    Abstract: This paper sheds new light on the barriers to migrants’ labor market assimilation. Using administrative data for Germany from 1997-2016, we estimate dynamic difference-in-differences regressions to investigate the relative trajectory of earnings, wages, and employment following mass layoff separately for migrants and natives. We show that job displacement affects the two groups differently even when we systematically control for pre-layoff differences in their characteristics: migrants have on average higher earnings losses, and they find it much more difficult to find employment. However, those who do find a new job experience faster wage growth compared to displaced natives. We examine several potential mechanisms and find that these gaps are driven by labor market conditions, such as local migrant networks and labor market tightness, rather than migrants’ behavior.
    Keywords: Immigration, Job Displacement, Job Search
    JEL: J62 J63 J64
    Date: 2023–07
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ajk:ajkdps:246&r=lab
  3. By: Berbée, Paul; Stuhler, Jan
    Abstract: Germany has become the second-most important destination for migrants worldwide. Using all waves from the microcensus, we study their labor market integration over the last 50 years, and document key differences to the US case. While the employment gaps between immigrant and native men decline in the first years after arrival, they remain large for most cohorts; the average gap one decade after arrival is around 10 percentage points. Income gaps are instead widening with time spent in Germany. Differences in educational and demographic characteristics explain how those gaps vary across groups, and why they widened over time: accounting for composition, integration outcomes show no systematic trend. However, economic conditions do matter, and the employment rate of some earlier cohorts collapsed when structural shocks hit the German labor market in the 1990s. Finally, we study the likely integration path of recent arrivals during the European refugee 'crisis' and the Russo-Ukrainian war.
    Keywords: Immigration, labor market integration, long-run trends
    JEL: J11 J61 J68
    Date: 2023
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:zewdip:23020&r=lab
  4. By: Åslund, Olof (Uppsala universitet); Liljeberg, Linus (IFAU - Institute for Evaluation of Labour Market and Education Policy); Roman, Sara (IFAU - Institute for Evaluation of Labour Market and Education Policy)
    Abstract: We study the short- and long-term economic and social integration of European war refugees. The population under study left former Yugoslavia for Sweden in the early 1990s. In the first years, there were significant human capital investments in language training, adult education, and active labor market programs. The Yugoslav refugees then exhibited a remarkably sharp increase in employment and earnings, possibly helped by improving labor markets and pre-existing contacts in Sweden. Many entered jobs in manufacturing and service industries and remained there to a considerable extent. Among those above 50 at arrival, labor market outcomes were not as good. Despite strong development during the early years, the long-term labor market position of the Yugoslavs is broadly on par with previous cohorts of refugees. Residential segregation first increased and then declined, whereas workplace segregation was most marked among the early entrants.
    Keywords: Refugees; migrants; economic and social integration
    JEL: F22 J15 J18
    Date: 2023–06–27
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:ifauwp:2023_016&r=lab
  5. By: Nybom, Martin (IFAU - Institute for Evaluation of Labour Market and Education Policy); Plug, Erik (University of Amsterdam); van der Klaauw, Bas (VU University Amsterdam); Ziegler, Lennart (University of Vienna)
    Abstract: This paper formulates a simple skill and education model to illustrate how better access to higher education can lead to stronger assortative mating on skills of parents and more polarized skill and earnings distributions of children. Swedish data show that in the second half of the 20th century more skilled students increasingly enrolled in college and ended up with more skilled partners and more skilled children. Exploiting college expansions, we find that better college access increases both skill sorting in couples and skill and earnings inequality among their children. All findings support the notion that increased skill inequality contributes to rising earnings inequality.
    Keywords: Assortative mating; intergenerational mobility; education; earnings inequality
    JEL: I24 J11 J12 J62
    Date: 2023–05–08
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:ifauwp:2023_012&r=lab
  6. By: Åslund, Olof (Uppsala University, Department of Economics); Larsson, Fredrik (Swedish Public Employment Agency); Laun, Lisa (Uppsala Center for Labor Studies (UCLS))
    Abstract: Theory and empirical findings on retirement determinants suggest that we may expect differences in labor market exit between native and foreign-born workers. Despite many countries seeing rising immigrant shares in their aging populations, alongside significant labor market disparities, the issue has so far received limited attention. Population-wide administrative data for Sweden show that the hazard rate to retirement is greater among immigrants already from age 50. But approaching age 65, especially marginal migrant groups have a stronger tendency to remain in the labor force and thus not adhering to the norm of retiring at a specific age. Education and family situation explain little of the retirement gaps, whereas labor market history, health, and occupational allocations are important determinants. Immigrant-native retirement differences are greater among men than among women. Overall findings suggest economic necessity and/or opportunity rather than varying preferences as drivers of differentials.
    Keywords: labor market exit; immigrants; retirement hazard
    JEL: C93 J64 J68
    Date: 2023–06–12
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:ifauwp:2023_015&r=lab
  7. By: Giuseppe Moscarini; Fabien Postel-Vinay
    Abstract: We introduce on-the-job search frictions in an otherwise standard monetary DSGE New-Keynesian model. Heterogeneity in productivity across jobs gives rise to a job ladder. Firms Bertrand-compete for employed workers according to the Sequential Auctions protocol of Postel-Vinay and Robin (2002). Outside job offers to employed workers, when accepted, reallocate employment up the productivity ladder; when declined, because matched by the current employer, they raise production costs and, due to nominal price rigidities, compress mark-ups, building inflationary pressure. When employment is concentrated at the bottom of the job ladder, typically after recessions, the reallocation effect prevails, aggregate supply expands, moderating marginal costs and inflation. As workers climb the job ladder, reducing slack in the employment pool, the inflation effect takes over. The model generates endogenous cyclical movements in the Neo Classical labor wedge and in the New Keynesian wage mark-up. The economy takes time to absorb cyclical misallocation and features propagation in the response of job creation, unemployment and inflation to aggregate shocks. The ratio between job-finding probabilities from job-to-job and from unemployment, a measure of the “Acceptance rate” of job offers to employed workers, predicts negatively inflation, independently of the unemployment rate.
    JEL: E24 E31 J60
    Date: 2023–07
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:31466&r=lab
  8. By: Federico Droller; Martin Fiszbein; Santiago Pérez
    Abstract: Argentina was the second largest destination country during the Age of Mass Migration, receiving nearly six million migrants. In this article, we first summarize recent findings characterizing migrants’ long-term economic assimilation and their contributions to local economic development. The reviewed evidence shows that Europeans experienced rapid upward mobility in Argentina and immigration contributed positively to the process of economic development. We then turn our focus to the selection patterns of Italian migrants to Argentina—the largest migratory group to this destination. Our analysis of this initial stage of the migrants’ history shows that Italians who moved to Argentina were positively selected on the basis of literacy, complementing existing evidence of rapid upward mobility and contribution to growth at destination.
    JEL: F22 J61 J62 N36
    Date: 2023–07
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:31448&r=lab
  9. By: Nicole Maestas; Matt Messel; Yulya Truskinovsky
    Abstract: A significant share of the rapidly growing demand for long-term care is met by family members, many of whom also work, and family caregiving has been shown to affect labor market outcomes. We use survey responses about family caregiving roles linked to administrative earnings records to estimate the employment trajectories of family caregivers over a 25 year period around the reported start of a caregiving episode. These trajectories vary significantly by gender. Relative to a matched comparison group, caregiving precipitates a drop in both earnings and employment for women, while men only enter caregiving after experiencing significant labor supply disruptions.
    JEL: J14 J16
    Date: 2023–07
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:31450&r=lab
  10. By: Romuald Méango; François Poinas
    Abstract: The paper is structured around three main contributions. First, it takes advantage of a unique survey on Afghan asylum seekers in Germany to provide novel descriptive insights into asylum seekers’ beliefs about their outcomes and the associated intention to overstay. Second, it estimates asylum seekers’ perceived ex ante returns on overstaying, and option values of regularisation, deportation, and experimentation. Third, it assesses and rejects the cost-effectiveness argument for assisted voluntary return policies. Instead, it estimates a sizeable willingness-to-pay of asylum seekers for investments that would guarantee their regularisation.
    Keywords: subjective expectations, intention to overstay, asylum seekers, Germany, Afghanistan
    JEL: C20 D84 F22 J15 J18 J61 O15
    Date: 2023
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_10536&r=lab
  11. By: David Hardt; Lea Mayer; Johannes Rincke
    Abstract: We analyze how the gender composition of teams affects team interactions. In an online experiment, we randomly assign individuals to gender-homogenous or gender-mixed teams. Teams meet in an audio chat room and jointly work on a gender-neutral team task. By design, effects on team performance can only work through communication. We find that all-male teams communicate more than all-female teams and outperform teams of both alternative gender compositions. In mixed teams, males strongly dominate the team conversation quantitatively. Past exposure to gender-mixed teamwork makes females more reluctant to engage in mixed teams, while for males the opposite is true.
    Keywords: teams, teamwork, gender composition, communication, team performance, preference for teamwork, online experiment
    JEL: C92 C93 D83 J16
    Date: 2023
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_10550&r=lab
  12. By: George J. Borjas; Anthony Edo
    Abstract: In May 1981, President François Mitterrand regularized the status of undocumented immigrant workers in France. The newly legalized immigrants represented 12 percent of the non-French workforce and about 1 percent of all workers. Employers have monopsony power over undocumented workers because the undocumented may find it costly to participate in the open labor market and have restricted economic opportunities. By alleviating this labor market imperfection, a regularization program can move the market closer to the efficient competitive equilibrium and potentially increase employment and wages for both the newly legalized and the authorized workforce. Our empirical analysis reveals that the Mitterrand regularization program particularly increased employment and wages for low-skill native and immigrant men, and raised French GDP by over 1 percent.
    JEL: D43 J31 J42 J61
    Date: 2023–07
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:31457&r=lab
  13. By: Averett, Susan L. (Lafayette College); Wang, Yang (University of Wisconsin-Madison)
    Abstract: We examine the impact of the Child and Dependent Care Tax Credit (CDCTC) on fertility and parental investment in children. The CDCTC aims to support working parents but its availability only to families with children incentivizing having more children or increasing investment in existing ones. Using the Panel Study of Income Dynamics and the National Center for Health Statistics' Natality data, we analyze the effects of state-level CDCTC policies on fertility and birth outcomes. Results indicate that the CDCTC increases labor force participation rates for married mothers, potentially suppressing fertility rates. Additionally, it has a positive effect on gestational age.
    Keywords: fertility, birth outcomes, child and dependent care tax credit
    JEL: I38 J13
    Date: 2023–06
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp16263&r=lab
  14. By: Ines Helm (University of Munich); Alice Kuegler (Central European University); Uta Schoenberg (University College London)
    Abstract: We investigate the consequences of structural change for workers displaced from the manufacturing sector. Manufacturing establishments traditionally employed low- and high-wage workers in similar proportions and paid substantial wage premiums to both types of workers. Structural change has led to the disappearance of these jobs, particularly for low-wage workers. Decomposing displacement wage losses, we show that low-wage workers suffer considerable losses in establishment premiums following displacement, whereas high-wage workers tend to fall down the match quality ladder. With ongoing structural change, losses in wages and establishment premiums have increased over time, especially for low-wage workers, in part because they are increasingly forced to switch to low knowledge service jobs where establishment premiums are low. Our findings further highlight that structural change and layoffs in manufacturing have significantly contributed to job polarization and the rise in assortative matching of workers to firms.
    Keywords: : structural change, manufacturing decline, displaced workers, cost of job loss, human capital, firm rents
    JEL: J22 J24 J31 J63
    Date: 2023–07
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crm:wpaper:2313&r=lab
  15. By: Deshpande, Ashwini; Khanna, Shantanu; Walia, Daksh
    Abstract: We examine the labour market impacts of the largest livelihoods programs in the world, India's Deendayal Antyodaya Yojana- National Rural Livelihoods Mission (DAY-NRLM). A key aspect of this program is to mobilize rural women into self-help groups (SHGs). We combine administrative data on SHG membership across districts in India with survey micro-data on labour force and employment outcomes of rural women between 2011 and 2019. Using a generalized difference-in-differences approach, we find that SHG membership is positively associated with labor force participation and employment of rural women. We also find evidence that SHG membership is associated with a shift towards self-employment and a crowd-out of casual work among the employed. Our supplementary analysis based on large primary survey data from Maharashtra allows us to examine the relationship between SHG membership and economic activity at the individual level. This confirms our main results of a positive association between SHG membership and economic activity. Further, we show that longer duration of SHG membership is associated with higher participation rates.
    Keywords: Self-Help Groups, Labor Force Participation, Employment, India
    JEL: O20 O22 J16
    Date: 2023
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:1311&r=lab
  16. By: Alexander Ahammer; Matthias Fahn; Flora Stiftinger (Department of Economics, Johannes Kepler University Linz, Austria)
    Abstract: We study the relationship between outside options and workers’ motivation to exert effort. We evaluate changes in outside options arising from age and experience cutoffs in the Austrian unemployment insurance (UI) system, and use absenteeism as a proxy for worker effort. Results indicate that a one-percent increase in the potential UI benefit duration increases absenteeism at the intensive margin by 0.28 percent. These results are consistent with a relational contracting model where effort is constrained by the future value of an employment relationship. This model further predicts that effort reductions are more pronounced if benefits assume a larger role in a worker’s outside option and if the perceived relationship value is small. Indeed, we find that our effects are stronger for workers with higher potential cost of unemployment, for older workers, in declining rather than in growing firms, in low-wage firms, and for women as well as workers with children
    Keywords: Outside options, effort incentives, relational contracts
    JEL: D21 D22 J22 J53 M52
    Date: 2023–07
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:jku:econwp:2023-08&r=lab
  17. By: Monica Deza
    Abstract: Previous literature presents mixed evidence on the effect of alcohol consumption on labor market outcomes. On one hand, heavy alcohol consumption has been shown to have detrimental effects on labor market outcomes. On the other hand, moderate consumption is positively associated with wages and employment. Despite substantial reduced form evidence, previous literature has not been able to separately identify the causal pathways linking moderate versus heavy alcohol use to labor market performance due to the lack of natural experiments that only target moderate versus heavy drinking, as well as limitations of available structural methods that model state dependence and unobserved heterogeneity. This study develops a multiple-equation dynamic discrete choice ordered logit model, which allows separate identification of the contribution of state dependence (within and between outcomes) and unobserved heterogeneity. I apply this newly-developed model to differentiate the effects of moderate and heavy drinking, after accounting for other correlated unobserved heterogeneity. This study finds that moderate alcohol use increases employment, which is consistent with moderate alcohol consumption being a venue for social capital accumulation. Policies that target alcohol consumption separately by dosage level may be beneficial to employment in ways that have not previously been expected.
    JEL: I12 J01
    Date: 2023–07
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:31453&r=lab
  18. By: Kristina Czura (University of Groningen); Florian Englmaier (LMU Munich); Hoa Ho (LMU Munich); Lisa Spantig (RWTH Aachen)
    Abstract: The positive role of transformational leadership on productivity and mental wellbeing has long been established. Transformational leadership behavior may be particularly suited to navigate times of crisis which are characterized by high levels of complexity and uncertainty. We exploit quasi-random assignment of employees to managers and study the role of frontline managers’ leadership styles on employees’ performance, work style, and mental well-being in times of crisis. Using longitudinal administrative data and panel survey data from before and during the Covid-19 pandemic, we find that frontline managers who were perceived as having a more transformational leadership style before the onset of the pandemic, lead employees to better performance and mental well-being during the pandemic.
    Keywords: leadership; frontline managers; labor-management relations; organizational behavior;
    JEL: M54 M12 J53
    Date: 2023–08–02
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rco:dpaper:412&r=lab
  19. By: Pedro H. Albuquerque (Aix Marseille Univ, CNRS, AMSE, Marseille, France and ACCELERATION & ADAPTATION, Aix-en-Provence, France); Prasad R. Vemala (Robert Morris University in Pittsburgh, PA (School of Business), USA)
    Abstract: Mexican cities along the US-Mexico border, especially Cd. Juarez became notorious due to high femicide rates supposedly associated with maquiladora industries and the NAFTA. Nonetheless, statistical evaluation of data from 1990 to 2012 shows that their rates are consistent with other Mexican cities’ rates and tend to fall with increased employment opportunities in maquiladoras. Femicide rates in Cd. Juarez are in most years like rates in Cd. Chihuahua and Ensenada and, as a share of overall homicide rates, are lower than in most cities evaluated. These results challenge conventional wisdom and most of the literature on the subject.
    Keywords: maquiladoras, crime, gender violence, violence against women, homicide, femicide, border, Mexico, Juarez
    JEL: K42 J16 Z13
    Date: 2023–07
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aim:wpaimx:2316&r=lab
  20. By: Pedro Teles; João Guerreiro; Sérgio Rebelo
    Abstract: As remote work opportunities expand, more people are seeking residence in foreign destinations. The resulting surge in foreign residents generates capital gains for property owners but negatively impacts renters and creates potentially important production, congestion, and amenities externalities. We study the optimal policy toward foreign residents in a model with key features emphasized in policy discussions. Using this model, we provide sufficient statistics to evaluate the impact of an influx of foreign residents and to calculate the tax/transfer policies required to implement the optimal policy. This policy involves implementing transfers to internalize agglomeration, congestion, and other potential externalities. Importantly, we find that it is not optimal to restrict, tax, or subsidize home purchases by foreign residents.
    JEL: H00 J61 R3 R58
    Date: 2023
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ptu:wpaper:w202310&r=lab
  21. By: Rafael Dix-Carneiro; Brian K. Kovak
    Abstract: We survey the recent literature studying the effects of globalization on inequality in Latin America. Our focus is on research emerging from the late 2000s onward, with an emphasis on empirical work considering new mechanisms, studying new dimensions of inequality, and developing new methodologies to capture the many facets of globalization's relationship to inequality. After summarizing both design-based and quantitative work in this area, we propose directions for future work. Our overarching recommendation is that researchers develop unifying frameworks to help synthesize the results of individual studies that focus on distinct aspects of globalization's relationship to inequality.
    JEL: F14 F62 F66 J0 O10
    Date: 2023–07
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:31459&r=lab
  22. By: Bah, Tijan L. (World Bank); Batista, Catia (Nova School of Business and Economics); Gubert, Flore (IRD, DIAL, Paris-Dauphine); McKenzie, David (World Bank)
    Abstract: Irregular migration from West Africa to Europe across the Sahara and Mediterranean is extremely risky for migrants and a key policy concern. A cluster-randomized experiment with 3, 641 young men from 391 settlements in The Gambia is used to test three approaches to reducing risky migration: providing better information and testimonials about the risks of the journey, facilitating migration to a safer destination by providing information and assistance for migration to Dakar, and offering vocational skill training to enhance domestic employment opportunities. Current migration to Senegal was increased by both the Dakar facilitation and vocational training treatments, partially crowding out internal migration. The vocational training treatment reduced intentions to migrate the backway and the number of steps taken toward moving. However, the backway migration rate from The Gambia collapsed, even in the control group, resulting in no space for a treatment effect on irregular migration from any of the three interventions.
    Keywords: cash transfer, vocational training, information interventions, migration deterrence, irregular migration, randomized experiment
    JEL: O15 F22 J61
    Date: 2023–07
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp16296&r=lab
  23. By: Maryna Tverdostup (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw)
    Abstract: Even before the war started, Ukrainian demographic prospects were almost uniquely negative, even in the context of CESEE. Ukrainian population declined steadily over last decade and the war has significantly worsened Ukraine’s already negative demographic outlook, to the extent that a shortage of labour, particularly in certain parts of the country, is highly likely to be one of the main challenges of post-war reconstruction. Our findings show that, regardless of our assumptions regarding the duration of the war and further military escalation, Ukraine’s population will not return to its pre-war level even in 2040, and the decline will be most pronounced in the working-age population. Although the population will rise somewhat in the years following the war, as soon as return migration flows run low, the population dynamic will turn negative again. Simulated population size ranges between 34.6m and 35m in 2040, which is around 20% below the 2021 level, with an improved fertility rate and declining mortality having very limited capacity to offset the rapid population decline. Our results suggest that over 20% of refugees will not return after the war, with many of those being working-age Ukrainians and their children, resulting in a long-lasting negative impact on Ukraine’s population and reconstruction prospects.
    Keywords: Ukraine, demographic trends, outward and return migration, post-war reconstruction
    JEL: J11 J13 O15
    Date: 2023–07
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wii:pnotes:pn:71&r=lab
  24. By: Raj Chetty; David J. Deming; John N. Friedman
    Abstract: Leadership positions in the U.S. are disproportionately held by graduates of a few highly selective private colleges. Could such colleges — which currently have many more students from high-income families than low-income families — increase the socioeconomic diversity of America’s leaders by changing their admissions policies? We use anonymized admissions data from several private and public colleges linked to income tax records and SAT and ACT test scores to study this question. Children from families in the top 1% are more than twice as likely to attend an Ivy-Plus college (Ivy League, Stanford, MIT, Duke, and Chicago) as those from middle-class families with comparable SAT/ACT scores. Two-thirds of this gap is due to higher admissions rates for students with comparable test scores from high-income families; the remaining third is due to differences in rates of application and matriculation. In contrast, children from high-income families have no admissions advantage at flagship public colleges. The high-income admissions advantage at private colleges is driven by three factors: (1) preferences for children of alumni, (2) weight placed on non-academic credentials, which tend to be stronger for students applying from private high schools that have affluent student bodies, and (3) recruitment of athletes, who tend to come from higher-income families. Using a new research design that isolates idiosyncratic variation in admissions decisions for waitlisted applicants, we show that attending an Ivy-Plus college instead of the average highly selective public flagship institution increases students’ chances of reaching the top 1% of the earnings distribution by 60%, nearly doubles their chances of attending an elite graduate school, and triples their chances of working at a prestigious firm. Ivy-Plus colleges have much smaller causal effects on average earnings, reconciling our findings with prior work that found smaller causal effects using variation in matriculation decisions conditional on admission. Adjusting for the value-added of the colleges that students attend, the three key factors that give children from high-income families an admissions advantage are uncorrelated or negatively correlated with post-college outcomes, whereas SAT/ACT scores and academic credentials are highly predictive of post-college success. We conclude that highly selective private colleges currently amplify the persistence of privilege across generations, but could diversify the socioeconomic backgrounds of America’s leaders by changing their admissions practices.
    JEL: I24 J62
    Date: 2023–07
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:31492&r=lab
  25. By: Gindling, T.H.; Ronconi, Lucas
    Abstract: In this chapter we review the literature and inform policy debates about the effects of minimum wages (MW) on income inequality in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC). Earnings are the primary source of income among families, especially in the lower part of the earnings and household income distribution. It is reasonable, therefore, to expect increases in the minimum wage to have a significant impact on earnings and income inequality.
    JEL: N0 J1 R14 J01
    Date: 2023–07–01
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:119635&r=lab

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