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on Labour Economics |
| By: | Kasy, Maximilian (University of Oxford); Lehner, Lukas (University of Oxford) |
| Abstract: | We evaluate a guaranteed job program launched in 2020 in Austria. Our evaluation is based on three approaches, pairwise matched randomization, a pre-registered synthetic control at the municipality level, and a comparison to individuals in control municipalities. This allows us to estimate direct effects, anticipation effects, and spillover effects. We find positive impacts of program participation on economic and non-economic well-being, but not on physical health or preferences. At the municipality level, we find a large reduction of long-term unemployment, and no negative employment spillovers. There are positive anticipation effects on subjective well-being, status, and social inclusion for future participants. |
| Keywords: | job guarantee, pairwise matched randomization, synthetic control |
| JEL: | I38 J08 J45 |
| Date: | 2023–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp16088&r=lab |
| By: | Anna Bárdits (KRTK KTI, Central European University); Anna Adamecz (KRTK KTI, UCL Social Research Institute); Márta Bisztray (KRTK KTI); Andrea Weber (Central European University, CEPR, IZA); Ágnes Szabó-Morvai (KRTK KTI, University of Debrecen) |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the effects of employment shocks on births and induced abortions. We are the first to show that abortions play a role in fertility responses to job displacement. Furthermore, we document precautionary fertility behavior: the anticipatory response of women to expected labor market shocks. Using individual-level administrative data from Hungary, we look at firm closures and mass layoffs as conditionally exogenous employment shocks in an event study design. After establishing that both shocks have a similarly large and persistent negative effect on employment and wages, we show that women already react to the anticipation of these shocks, and their fertility responses differ substantially for firm closures and mass layoffs. We find that abortions increase by 88% in the year before firm closures, while the number of births is not affected. Mass layoffs have no significant effect on abortions in the preceding year but increase the number of births by 44%. Mass layoffs and firm closures differ in one crucial aspect: pregnant women cannot be laid off until the firm exists, but no such dismissal protection is available in the case of firm closures. Thus, when dismissal protection is available, anticipated employment shocks increase the number of live births, whereas when it is not, they increase the number of abortions. These results suggest that dismissal protection has the potential to support women to keep pregnancies at times of economic shocks. |
| Keywords: | Abortion, Birth, Pregnancy, Mass layoff, Firm closure |
| JEL: | I12 J13 J65 |
| Date: | 2023–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:has:discpr:2303&r=lab |
| By: | Iga Magda; Ewa Cukrowska-Torzewska; Marta Palczyńska |
| Abstract: | Using data from “Generation and Gender Survey†for Poland, we study the relationship between women’s relative income within the household, as measured by the female share of total household income, and women’s involvement in housework. We find that households in which the woman contributes more to the total household income are more likely to share housework equally. We also find that individual gender norms matter both for women’s involvement in unpaid work at home and for the observed link between the female share of income and inequality between the partners in the division of housework. Women from less traditional households are found to be more likely to share housework equally. However, this negative relationship between the female share of household income and female involvement in housework is not observed among more traditional couples. |
| Keywords: | household income, income inequality, housework, gender norms |
| JEL: | D10 D13 D31 J12 J16 J22 |
| Date: | 2023–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ibt:wpaper:wp022023&r=lab |
| By: | Bratu, Cristina; Martén, Linna (Swedish Institute for Social Research, Stockholm University); Ottosson, Lillit (Swedish Institute for Social Research, Stockholm University) |
| Abstract: | The economic and social integration of refugees is a key policy concern. The situation of refugee women is particularly challenging, as many never enter the labor force. We study a reform of the Swedish integration program that aimed to tackle this issue by increasing women’s participation in and access to active labor market programs. Using administrative data and a regression discontinuity design, we show that the reform resulted in lasting improvements in women’s earnings and employment. We find no effects for men. Additional analyses suggest that individualizing benefits and early registration with the Public Employment Service are key mechanisms. |
| Keywords: | Refugees; Integration; Active Labor Market Program |
| JEL: | J08 J15 J61 |
| Date: | 2023–05–23 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:sofiwp:2023_003&r=lab |
| By: | David Card (University of California, Berkeley); Fabrizio Colella (Università della Svizzera italiana); Rafael Lalive (University of Lausanne) |
| Abstract: | In spring 2005, the Ombud for Equal Treatment in Austria launched a campaign notifying employers and newspapers that gender preferences in job ads were illegal. At the time over 40% of vacancies on the nation’s largest job board stated a gender preference; within a year the rate fell below 5%. We merge job board vacancies and employer records to study how the campaign affected hiring choices and the gender diversity of occupations and workplaces. Using pre-campaign data, we predict the use of gender preferences, then conduct a difference-indifferences analysis of hiring outcomes for vacancies with predicted male or female preferences, relative to those with no predicted preferences. The elimination of explicit gender preferences boosted the share of women hired for jobs that were likely to be targeted to men (and vice versa). At the firm level, we find that the campaign led to a rise in the share of women at firms that were more likely to use male SGP’s, and a symmetric increase in the share of men at firms that were likely to use female SGP’s, with no effects on firm survival, employment, or average wages. |
| Keywords: | Gender Preferences, Gender Segregation, Anti-discrimination Policy |
| JEL: | J16 J68 J63 |
| Date: | 2023–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crm:wpaper:2306&r=lab |
| By: | Cameron, Lisa A. (University of Melbourne); Contreras Suarez, Diana (University of Melbourne); Tseng, Yi-Ping (Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research) |
| Abstract: | Although it is well established that women's labour force participation drops markedly with marriage and childbearing, surprisingly little is known about women's labour market transitions, especially in developing countries. This paper uses the Indonesian Family Life Survey to track the employment histories of over 9, 000 women across a period of more than 20 years, observing them as they get married and have children. The data show that large numbers of Indonesian women drop out of the labour market as a result of marriage and childbearing. The difficulty of maintaining formal sector employment emerges as a key problem. Having worked in the formal sector prior to the birth of a first child reduces the probability of working in the year following the birth by 20 percentage points and reduces the probability of returning to the labour market thereafter by 3.6 percentage points. Further, to the extent that women do return to work, formal sector employment is associated with greater delays in returning - women are more likely to return to work in the formal sector only once their child starts primary school, while in the informal sector they return earlier. We find little evidence of women switching from the formal to the informal sector. Formal sector labour market policies such as flexible work hours; compressed work weeks; part-time work (with the same career opportunities and benefits as full-time work); the ability to work from home; and work-based childcare are likely to boost women's labour force participation, with consequent boosts to economic productivity and prosperity. |
| Keywords: | female labour force participation, labour market transitions, economic development, childbearing |
| JEL: | J20 J16 O15 |
| Date: | 2023–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp16136&r=lab |
| By: | Ziegler, Lennart (University of Vienna); Bamieh, Omar (University of Vienna) |
| Abstract: | This study examines the effect of two recent parental leave reforms in Austria that allow parents to choose leave schemes with varying duration. Using a regression discontinuity design, we find that the introduction of more flexible scheme choices led mothers to take, on average, 1-2 months less of leave. This decrease in leave duration, however, was not accompanied by an employment increase of similar magnitude. To understand the absence of labor supply effects, we examine data on work preferences from the Austrian Microcensus. Child care duties are cited as the primary reason for not seeking work but few mothers indicate that they would start working if better access to formal childcare were available. Switching to the more flexible leave system had a minimal effect on the labor market choices of mothers, as the majority continue to prioritize child care responsibilities and do not consider nurseries as a desirable alternative. |
| Keywords: | parental leave, gender differences, child care, financial incentives, labor supply, return to work |
| JEL: | J12 J13 J18 J22 I38 |
| Date: | 2023–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp16172&r=lab |
| By: | Mohammed Ait Lahcen; Garth Baughman; Hugo van Buggenum |
| Abstract: | We study the nonlinearities present in a standard monetary labor search model modified to have two groups of workers facing exogenous differences in the job finding and separation rates. We use our setting to study the racial unemployment gap between Black and white workers in the US. A calibrated version of the model is able to replicate the difference between the two groups both in the level and volatility of unemployment. We show that the racial unemployment gap is counter-cyclical and that its reaction to shocks is state-dependent. In particular, following a negative productivity shock, when aggregate unemployment is above average the gap increases by 0.6pp more than when aggregate unemployment is below average. In terms of policy, we study the implications of different inflation regimes on the racial unemployment gap. Higher trend inflation increases both the level of the unemployment gap and the magnitude of its response to shocks. |
| Keywords: | Unemployment, discrimination, racial inequality, monetary policy, inflation |
| JEL: | E31 E32 E52 J64 |
| Date: | 2023–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zur:econwp:433&r=lab |
| By: | Marie Connolly (Department of Economics, University of Quebec in Montreal); Catherine Haeck (Department of Economics, University of Quebec in Montreal); Anne Mei Le Bourdais-Coffey (Department of Economics, University of Quebec in Montreal) |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we exploit intergenerationally-linked tax files and Census data to first document the intergenerational income transmission between individuals who immigrated to Canada as children—the 1.5 generation—and their parents. We find that the correlation between parental income rank and child income rank becomes stronger the older the child is at arrival. We then try to get at the causal effect of the age at immigration by estimating a model in which child rank is explained by interactions between age at arrival and the average predicted rank of second-generation immigrants from the same region of origin, living in the same region in Canada, from the same birth cohort, given their parental income. The model gives us the rate at which children from the 1.5 generation catch up to second-generation immigrants. We find that up to age 10, the relation between age at immigration and income is flat, but starting at age 11, each year is associated with 3.3 fewer percentile ranks. |
| Keywords: | intergenerational income mobility, immigrants, 1.5 generation, age at immigration, Canada |
| JEL: | J62 J61 J15 |
| Date: | 2023–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:grc:wpaper:23-03&r=lab |
| By: | Collischon, Matthias (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg); Hiesinger, Karolin (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg); Pohlan, Laura (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg) |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes the individual-level effects of disability onset on labor market outcomes using novel administrative data from Germany. Combining propensity score matching techniques with an event-study design, we find lasting negative impacts on employment and wages. One important mechanism is transitions to nonemployment after disability onset: newly disabled individuals' probability of becoming nonemployed increases by 10 percentage points after one year and by 15 percentage points after five years relative to that of the control group. For those who stay in employment, working part-time and switching to less physically or psychosocially demanding jobs are important adjustment paths. The negative labor market effects of disability onset are more pronounced for severely disabled, older and low-skilled individuals. |
| Keywords: | propensity score matching, labor market outcomes, disability, event study |
| JEL: | I10 J14 J21 J71 |
| Date: | 2023–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp16100&r=lab |
| By: | Margit Molnar; Michael Abendschein; Zvezdelina Zhelyazkova |
| Abstract: | The shrinking number of workers due to smaller young cohorts entering the labour market and large-scale outward migration are undermining Bulgaria’s growth prospects, the sustainability of its social institutions and society more widely. Bulgaria needs to provide more support for families and make staying in the country more attractive by raising productivity, fostering the creation of more good-quality formal jobs and reinforcing the social safety net. Bulgarian women have high activity rates, a high share in management jobs and a low wage gap with men, but all this translates into high opportunity costs for educated women of having children. Policies, including access to affordable quality childcare countrywide, more egalitarian burden sharing with men and greater incentives to get back to work, would help reduce those costs. Women from disadvantaged backgrounds should be offered a career path through upgrading skills and lifelong learning. Inactivity rates among the working age population should be addressed by reforms to the social welfare system that would improve activation and through targeted measures. Vulnerable groups, including ethnic minorities, are disadvantaged in multiple ways and need tailored measures to escape poverty, acquire skills and integrate into the labour market. |
| Keywords: | Bulgaria, childcare, demographics, ethnic minorities, fertility, incomes, informality, jobs, labour market policies, migration, skills, social assistance, social insurance |
| JEL: | F22 J11 J13 J14 J15 J16 J21 J24 J46 J82 R23 |
| Date: | 2023–05–26 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:ecoaaa:1759-en&r=lab |
| By: | Karadja, Mounir (Department of Economics, Uppsala University); Sundberg, Anton (Department of Economics, Uppsala University) |
| Abstract: | We study the economic impact of becoming a taxi driver. Comparing individuals who pass the necessary written exams for a taxi driver’s license to individuals who have not yet done so, we find that both immigrants and natives who enter into taxi driving have experienced negative employment trends. However, after passing the written taxi exams, immigrants increase their monthly earnings by nearly 50 percent between 1 and 3 years later, and usage of social insurance programs decreases as well. For natives, we find positive but much smaller effects of passing taxi exams, which are large enough for their post-taxi earnings to be roughly 10 percent larger. An analysis of heterogeneous effects shows that effects are larger for recently arrived immigrants. We also find evidence in favor of immigrants having poorer outside options in the labor market, which may be a reason for their larger earnings impact of taxi driving compared to natives. |
| Keywords: | Taxi labor market; Driver’s licenses; Immigrant-native earnings gaps |
| JEL: | J15 J22 J24 J60 J61 |
| Date: | 2023–03–23 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:ifauwp:2023_006&r=lab |
| By: | Altmejd, Adam (SOFI, Stockholm Universit) |
| Abstract: | University graduates are more than three times as likely to hold a degree in the field that their parent graduated from. To estimate how much of this association is caused by the educational choices of parents, I exploit admission thresholds to university programs in a regression discontinuity design. I study individuals who applied to Swedish universities between 1977 and 1992 and evaluate how their enrollment in different fields of study increases the probability that their children later study the same topic. I find strong causal influence. At the aggregate level, children become 50% more likely to graduate from a field if their parent has previously enrolled in it. The effect is positive for most fields, but varies substantially in size. Technology, engineering, medicine, business exhibit the largest, significant, effects. For these fields, parental enrollment increases child graduation probability with between 2.0 and 12.8 percentage points. I show that the parent’s labor market experience plays an important role in explaining the results, but parental field enrollment does not increase subject-specific skills, nor is it associated with higher returns to earnings. I find little evidence for comparative advantage being the key driver of field inheritance. Rather, parents seem to function as role models, making their own field choice salient. This is indicated by the fact that children become less likely to follow parents with weak labor market prospects, and that children are more likely to follow the parent with the same gender. |
| Keywords: | intergenerational transmission; fields of study; |
| JEL: | I24 J62 |
| Date: | 2023–04–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:ifauwp:2023_011&r=lab |
| By: | Da Silva, António Dias; Rusinova, Desislava; Weißler, Marco |
| Abstract: | Probabilistic job loss expectations elicited in the Consumer Expectations Survey have predictive power for future job loss. We find that an unexpected job loss leads to a negative consumption response, while this e˙ect is muted for workers with ex-ante job loss expectations - consistent with the Permanent Income Hypothesis. The negative consumption response to an unexpected job loss is stronger for workers who have worse perceptions of the local labour market, are older or have lower levels of liquid wealth. This supports the notion that the persistence of the unemployment shock is an important factor of the consumption response to a job loss. At the same time, we do not find a positive consumption response of workers who unexpectedly retain their job. These heterogeneous results have important implications for the expected impact on consumption of job protection measures such as job retention schemes. JEL Classification: D12, D84, J63 |
| Keywords: | consumption, ECB Consumer Expectations Survey (CES), job loss expectations, Permanent Income Hypothesis (PIH) |
| Date: | 2023–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20232817&r=lab |
| By: | Caroline Neuber-Pohl; Damiano Pregaldini; Uschi Backes-Gellner; Sandra Dummert; Harald Pfeifer |
| Abstract: | By exploiting a sharp outflow of German workers to Switzerland after the opening of borders, we examine the impact of an exogenous negative labor supply shock on training in firms. In Germany this training takes place in the form of apprenticeships. Using detailed administrative data for both sides of the border, we find that the negative supply shock of skilled workers leads to an increase in the number of apprentices in firms in Germany despite a significant decrease in apprentice wages. These two effects can be explained with a standard two-factor production model. Our results suggest that firms react by substituting outflowing skilled workers with newly trained apprentices. Moreover, the apprentice supply increased because adolescents react to the better employment prospects due to the open borders. The results complement recent studies on the effects of negative labor supply shocks and provide important empirical evidence for the functioning of training markets. |
| Keywords: | Negative labor supply shock, wage effects, training incentives, apprenticeship training supply and demand |
| JEL: | J21 J22 J61 R23 |
| Date: | 2023–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iso:educat:0203&r=lab |
| By: | Foged, Mette (University of Copenhagen); van der Werf, Cynthia (Inter-American Development Bank) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines whether language classes raises refugees' language proficiency and improves their socio-economic integration. Our identification strategy leverages the opening, closing, and gradual expansion of local language training centers in Denmark, as well as the quasi-random assignment of the refugees to locations with varying proximity to a language training center. First, we show that refugees' distance from the assigned language training center is as good as random conditional on initial placement. Second, we show that a one-hour decrease in commuting time increases total hours of class attended by 46 to 71. Third, we use this novel identification strategy to show that 100 additional hours of language class increases fluency in the Danish language by 8-9 percent, post-language training human capital acquisition by 11-13 percent and improve the integration of the refugees in the communities where they were initially placed, as measured by the lower exit rates from those same communities and an almost 70 percent reduction in mobility to the largest, most immigrant-dense cities in Denmark. |
| Keywords: | refugee integration, language skills |
| JEL: | J60 J24 |
| Date: | 2023–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp16091&r=lab |
| By: | Belchior, Carlos Alberto (University of Zurich); Gonzaga, Gustavo (Pontifical Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro (PUC-Rio)); Ulyssea, Gabriel (University College London) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the impacts of neighborhoods on the economic outcomes of adults. We exploit one of the world's largest housing lottery programs and administrative data linking lottery registration, formal employment, and access to social programs in Brazil. Receiving a house has positive impacts on housing quality and reduces household expenditures but has negative effects on beneficiaries' neighborhood characteristics. On average, the program has a negative impact on the probability of being formally employed but no effect on the quality of jobs. Poorer individuals, however, experience better formal employment outcomes and lower welfare dependency. We find no differential impacts by distance to beneficiaries' previous homes or jobs. Leveraging a double-randomization design to allocate houses, we show that there are significant differences in effects across neighborhoods and we propose a framework to estimate the relative importance of potential underlying mechanisms. Network quality, amenities and crime play a very limited role, while labor market access explains 82-93% of the observed differences in neighborhood effects. |
| Keywords: | neighborhood effects, housing programs, labor markets |
| JEL: | H75 I38 O18 R23 R38 |
| Date: | 2023–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp16113&r=lab |
| By: | Maridueña-Larrea, Ángel; Martín-Román, Ángel L. |
| Abstract: | This study measures the responsiveness of female labour participation to changes in the economic cycle at the extensive margin in Latin America. The results provide new evidence regarding the cyclical behaviour of the female labour force participation, making it possible to determine which countries validate the traditional hypotheses of the added and discouraged worker. Another significant finding is that these effects vary during cycles of economic expansion and recession and become stronger when reaching a certain threshold. Therefore, contradictory hypotheses to the added and discouraged worker emerged, which is referred to as subtracted and encouraged workers, both of which are formally validated by examining these effects throughout the economic cycles. |
| Keywords: | Added worker effect, discouraged worker effect, unemployment rate, labour force participation rate, economic cycle |
| JEL: | C10 E24 J21 J64 J68 |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:117408&r=lab |
| By: | Adhvaryu, Achyuta (University of San Diego); Daysal, N. Meltem (University of Copenhagen); Gunnsteinsson, Snaebjorn (Independent Researcher); Molina, Teresa (University of Hawaii at Manoa); Steingrimsdottir, Herdis (Copenhagen Business School) |
| Abstract: | How do parents contend with threats to the health and survival of their children? Can the social safety net mitigate negative economic effects through transfers to affected families? We study these questions by combining the universe of cancer diagnoses among Danish children with register data for affected and matched unaffected families. Parental income declines substantially for 3-4 years following a child's cancer diagnosis. Fathers' incomes recover fully, but mothers' incomes remain 3% lower 12 years after diagnosis. Using a policy reform that introduced variation in the generosity of targeted safety net transfers to affected families, we show that such transfers play a crucial role in smoothing income for these households and, importantly, do not generate work disincentive effects. The pattern of results is most consistent with the idea that parents' preferences to personally provide care for their children during the critical years following a severe health shock drive changes in labor supply and income. Mental health and fertility effects are also observed but are likely not mediators for impacts on economic outcomes. |
| Keywords: | child health, income, labor supply, safety net, cash transfers, disincentive effects, long-run effects, mental health, childhood cancers, Denmark |
| JEL: | I10 J13 J22 |
| Date: | 2023–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp16115&r=lab |
| By: | Patricia Cortés |
| Abstract: | Most of the literature on how immigration affects the labor market focuses on the outcomes of natives in direct competition with immigrants. This paper reviews a growing literature on an alternative channel. Immigrants, particularly low-skilled women, are disproportionately represented in the household services sector, a global phenomenon that is seen to some extent in most regions. A simple time-use model suggests that by lowering the price of market-provided household services, immigrant workers allow high-skilled native women to reduce their unpaid household production and increase their participation in the labor market. I review existing evidence that the presence of foreign domestic workers has increased the labor supply of high-skilled native women, has helped narrow the gender earnings gap in high-paying powered occupations, and that these advances have not come at the cost of native women investing less time in their children or having lower birth rates. I discuss the policy implications of these results, as well as some ethical considerations. |
| JEL: | J16 J22 |
| Date: | 2023–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:31234&r=lab |
| By: | Steven J. Davis; Pawel Krolikowski |
| Abstract: | We design and field an innovative survey of unemployment insurance (UI) recipients that yields new insights about wage stickiness on the layoff margin. Most UI recipients express a willingness to accept wage cuts of 5-10 percent to save their jobs, and one-third would accept a 25 percent cut. Yet worker-employer discussions about cuts in pay, benefits, or hours in lieu of layoffs are exceedingly rare. When asked why employers don’t raise the possibility of job-preserving pay cuts, four-in-ten UI recipients don’t know. Sixteen percent say cuts would undermine morale or lead the best workers to quit, and 39 percent don’t think wage cuts would save their jobs. For those who lost union jobs, 45 percent say contractual restrictions prevent wage cuts. Among those on permanent layoff who reject our hypothetical pay cuts, half say they have better outside options, and 38 percent regard the proposed pay cut as insulting. Our results suggest that wage cuts acceptable to both worker and employer could potentially prevent a quarter of the layoffs in our sample. We draw on our findings and other evidence to assess theories of wage stickiness and its role in layoffs. |
| Keywords: | Wage Rigidity; Sticky Wages; Layoffs; Saving Jobs; Unemployment Insurance |
| JEL: | E24 E31 J31 J64 |
| Date: | 2023–05–15 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedcwq:96137&r=lab |
| By: | Christian Dustmann; Rasmus Landersø; Lars Højsgaard Andersen |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes the effects of Denmark’s Start Aid welfare reform that targets refugees. Implemented in 2002, it enables us to study not only the reform’s immediate effects, but also its longer-term consequences, and its repeal a decade later. The reform-induced large transfer cuts led to an increase in employment rates, but only in the short run. Overall, the reform increased poverty rates and led to a rise in subsistence crime. Moreover, local demand conditions generate substantial heterogeneity in the reform’s effects on immediate and longer-term employment. |
| Keywords: | social assistance, welfare state, labor market outcomes, labor demand, migration |
| JEL: | E64 I30 J60 |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_10386&r=lab |
| By: | Hie Joo Ahn; Bart Hobijn; Ayşegül Şahin |
| Abstract: | Aggregate U.S. labor market dynamics are well approximated by a dual labor market supplemented with a third, predominantly, home-production segment. We uncover this structure by estimating a Hidden Markov Model, a machine-learning method. The different market segments are identified through (in-)equality constraints on labor market transition probabilities. This method yields time series of stocks and flows for the three segments for 1980-2021. Workers in the primary sector, who make up around 55 percent of the population, are almost always employed and rarely experience unemployment. The secondary sector, which constitutes 14 percent of the population, absorbs most of the short-run fluctuations, both at seasonal and business cycle frequencies. Workers in this segment experience six times higher turnover rates than those in the primary tier and are ten times more likely to be unemployed than their primary counterparts. The tertiary segment consists of workers who infrequently participate in the labor market but nevertheless experience unemployment when they try to enter the labor force. Our individual-level analysis shows that observable demographic characteristics only explain a small part of the cross-individual variation in segment membership. The combination of the aggregate and individual-level evidence we provide points to dualism in the U.S. labor market being an equilibrium division of labor, under labor market imperfections, that minimizes adjustment costs in response to predictable seasonal as well as unpredictable business cycle fluctuations. |
| JEL: | J20 J6 |
| Date: | 2023–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:31241&r=lab |
| By: | Bang, James; Mitra, Aniruddha; Abbas, Faisal |
| Abstract: | We investigate the impact of remittance income on the household decision to send a child to work. Using data from a Multiple Indicators Cluster Survey conducted in the Punjab province of Pakistan in 2014, we isolate the causal impact of remittance income by employing statistical matching to construct counterfactuals that allow us to compare the occurrence in child labor in comparable households that differ solely in their access to remittances. We find that remittances have in general failed to mitigate household reliance on child labor in Punjab. However, the impact depends critically on whether remittances originate from within Pakistan or outside, the age and gender of the child, and on the nature of employment. Specifically, internal remittances increase the labor force participation of the youngest children in the 5-11 age group, with girls being more likely to work in household production and boys being additionally more likely to work as wage labor in nonhazardous occupations. By contrast, international remittances impact the oldest children in the 14-17 age group. While girls in this age group participate more in household and nonhazardous market production, boys are additionally more likely to participate in hazardous activity. |
| Keywords: | Remittances, Migration, Child Labor, Gender |
| JEL: | F24 F22 R23 J13 |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:1285&r=lab |
| By: | Kettlewell, Nathan (University of Technology, Sydney); Levy, Jonathan (University of Sydney); Tymula, Agnieszka (University of Sydney); Wang, Xueting (Royal Melbourne Institute of Technology) |
| Abstract: | Studies have frequently found that women are more risk averse than men. In this paper, we depart from usual practice in economics that treats risk attitude as a primitive, and instead adopt a neuroeconomic approach where risk attitude is determined by the reference point which can be easily estimated using standard econometric methods. We then evaluate whether there is a gender difference in the reference point, explaining the gender difference in risk aversion observed using traditional approaches. In our study, women make riskier choices less frequently than men. Compared to men, we find that women on average have a significantly lower reference point. By acknowledging the reference point as a potential source of gender inequality, we can begin a new discussion on how to address this important issue. |
| Keywords: | reference point, risk attitude, neuroeconomics, gender, inequality, experiment |
| JEL: | C90 D87 D91 J16 |
| Date: | 2023–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp16138&r=lab |
| By: | Olga Takács (Corvinus University of Budapest); János Vincze (Corvinus University of Budapest and Centre for Economic and Regional Studies) |
| Abstract: | The gender earnings gap can be attributed either to the different distribution of males and females across jobs or to within job biases in favour of men. The latter is frequently called the wage structure effect, and it may be interpreted as wage discrimination against women. In this paper we focus on this second source of the gap. In particular, we study the heterogeneity of the wage structure effect by looking for the main drivers of it. On Hungarian matched employer-employee data we identify those firm-worker profiles that exhibit extremely high gender wage differentials We apply the Causal Forest methodology, borrowed from the conditional average treatment effect (CATE) literature, which has been utilized in several observational studies, recently. Our findings show that those firms that pay relatively high wages tend to discriminate against women most strongly, and especially with respect to women who have spent a longer time in the same firm. But this tendency is moderated by regional effects; where demand side competition is strong the wage structure effect tends to be smaller. These findings are, by and large, in accordance with the view that relative bargaining power is relevant for wage-setting, or, alternatively, firms practice third degree wage discrimination. |
| Keywords: | Gender pay gap, heterogeneous wage structure effects, random forest regression. |
| JEL: | J16 J31 C14 |
| Date: | 2023–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:has:discpr:2304&r=lab |
| By: | Jonas Radbruch (Humboldt University Berlin, Spandauer Straße 1, D-10178 Berlin); Amelie Schiprowski (University of Bonn, Adenauerallee 24-42, D-53113 Bonn) |
| Abstract: | This paper provides empirical evidence on the aggregation of information in committees. We analyze unique data from the decision-making process of hiring committees within a large private company. In the hiring process, committee members first conduct independent one-to-one interviews and give individual recommendations before deliberating on a collective hiring decision. We find that committees’ final hiring decisions are systematically less aligned with the initial recommendations of women than with those of men, even though women and men are equally qualified and experienced. This disparity in influence is strongest when recommendations exhibit high disagreement and when a single woman deliberates with two men. The estimated distribution of influence reveals that almost all men are more influential than the median woman. We offer suggestive evidence that these findings have implications for the effectiveness of gender quotas. |
| Keywords: | Committee Decision-Making, Gender Differences, Hiring |
| JEL: | D71 J16 M51 |
| Date: | 2023–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ajk:ajkdps:234&r=lab |
| By: | Schneider, Benjamin; Vipond, Hillary |
| Abstract: | Debates about the future of work frequently reference past instances of transformative innovation to explain how automation and artificial intelligence could reshape society and the economy. However, historians have rarely engaged with these discussions, and most economists and technologists have limited knowledge of past experiences of technological change. In this paper we show that a deeper understanding of history can expand our understanding of possibilities and pitfalls for employment in the future. We open by demonstrating that evidence from historical events has been used to inform responses to present-day challenges. We argue that history provides the only way to analyze the long-term impacts of technological change, and that the scale of the First Industrial Revolution may make it the only precedent for emerging transformations. Next, we present an overview of the current debates around the potential effects of impending labour replacing innovation. We then summarize existing historical research on the causes and consequences of technological change and identify areas in which salient historical findings are overlooked. We close by proposing further research into past technological shocks that can enhance our vision of an automated future. |
| Keywords: | technological change; innovation; automation; future of work; technological unemployment; labour displacement |
| JEL: | J23 J64 J81 N31 N33 N71 N73 O31 O33 |
| Date: | 2023–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:wpaper:119282&r=lab |
| By: | Hellwagner, Timon (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany); Söhnlein, Doris (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany); Weber, Enzo (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany ; Univ. Regensburg) |
| Abstract: | "Population size and structure in conjunction with the participation behavior are the determinants of labor supply. Thereby, among the demographic components, migration is the one shaping both the size and the structure of a population the strongest in the short to medium term while simultaneously exhibiting high uncertainty, with migration patterns varying between origin-destination-pairs depending on a range of economic and other determinants. Yet, existing stochastic forecasting approaches that jointly address population and labor force participation are sparse and do neither account for differences in future immigration flows across origin countries nor for the interdependencies of immigration and emigration in the destination country. Addressing this shortcoming, we propose an augmentation of an integrated stochastic population and labor force participation forecasting framework by a gravity-equation component to model future immigration and emigration, their interaction, and their determinants more appropriately. By conducting a stochastic forecast, we find that until 2060 the potential labor supply in Germany is declining by 11.7 percent, strongly driven by the even more distinct decline of the working-age population and only partially cushioned by rising participation rates. Thereby, increasing immigration to Germany is highly probable, yet its net effect is limited due to simultaneously rising emigration figures." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en)) |
| Keywords: | IAB-Open-Access-Publikation |
| JEL: | F22 J11 J21 |
| Date: | 2023–05–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iab:iabdpa:202305&r=lab |
| By: | Juan C. Córdoba; Anni T. Isojärvi; Haoran Li |
| Abstract: | Workhorse search and matching models assume constant bargaining weights, while recent evidence indicates that weights vary across time and in cross section. We endogenize bargaining weights in a life-cycle search and matching model by replacing a standard Cobb-Douglas (CD) matching function with a general constant elasticity of substitution (CES) matching function and study the implications for the long-term labor share and bargaining power in the U.S. The CES model explains 64 percent of the reported decline in the labor share since 1980, while the CD model explains only 28 percent of the decline. We then use the model to recover changes in bargaining power and find that workers' bargaining power has declined 11 percent between 1980 and 2007 because of a decline in tightness. |
| Keywords: | Labor share; Endogenous bargaining power; Search and matching; CES matching function |
| JEL: | E25 J30 J50 |
| Date: | 2023–05–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2023-30&r=lab |
| By: | Khorana, Sangeeta; Webster, Allan |
| Abstract: | This study uses enterprise survey data from a sample of 26 countries to address the question "why are there too few women at the top of firms?". That is, it asks why the proportion of firms with females at the top is low in relation to the share of females in full-time employment. To reduce the risk of bias arising from a confounding variable the range of explanatory variables used was wide, including data at the level of the firm, sector and country. An important contribution to the analysis was made by the inclusion of national cultural attitudes. The most important findings of the enterprise level analysis were that foreign owned firms were statistically significantly less likely to employ a female top manager, that the pattern of female top managers by sector follows a wider pattern of gender segregation, and that national cultural attitudes are important in the determination of the gender of the top manager. Having established the importance of cultural attitudes in determination of the gender of top managers the study uses a second set of data to analyse national attitudes associated with hostility to female executives. Unsurprisingly this hostility to female executives is predominantly on the part of males rather than females but religion and a lack of education are important too. The paper contributes to the literature on gender in International Business and overlaps with the literature dealing with the need for affiliates to adjust to local culture. |
| JEL: | J16 E24 F23 |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:1276&r=lab |
| By: | Keith Finlay; Michael G. Mueller-Smith; Brittany Street |
| Abstract: | Children's indirect exposure to the justice system through biological parents or co-resident adults is both a marker of their own vulnerability and a measure of the justice system's expansive reach in society. Estimating the size of this population for the United States has historically been hampered by inadequate data resources, including the inability to (1) observe non-incarceration events, (2) follow children throughout their childhood, and (3) measure adult non-biological parent cohabitants. To overcome these challenges, we leverage billions of restricted administrative and survey records linked with Criminal Justice Administrative Records System data, and find substantially larger exposure rates than previously reported: prison - 9% of children born between 1999-2005, felony conviction - 18%, and any criminal charge - 39%. Charge exposure rates exceed 60% for Black, American Indian, and low-income children. While broader definitions reach a more expansive population, strong and consistently negative correlations with childhood well-being suggest these remain valuable predictors of vulnerability. Finally, we document substantial geographic variation in exposure, which we leverage in a movers design to estimate the effect of living in a high-exposure county during childhood. We find that children moving into high-exposure counties are more likely to experience post-move exposure events and exhibit significantly worse outcomes by age 26 on multiple dimensions (earnings, criminal activity, teen parenthood, mortality); impacts are strongest for those who moved at earlier ages. |
| JEL: | I32 J12 K14 K42 |
| Date: | 2023–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:31262&r=lab |
| By: | Marcello D'Amato (University of Naples Suor Orsola Benincasa and CSEF); Francesco Flaviano Russo (Università di Napoli Federico II and CSEF) |
| Abstract: | We provide a new measure of cultural similarity among ethnic groups and countries, based on orally transmitted narratives. Compared to other measures of phylogenetic distances of the separation time of two ethnic groups, either linguistic, religious or based on the “molecular clock”, our index measures the intensity of cultural exchanges across group pairs in their history, after separation and before the recent great migrations. By the use of this index, a “cultural clock”, we provide further support to the hypothesis that the cultural channel is key to interpret the role of vertically transmitted traits in the account for the deep causes of observed pairwise distances in economic outcomes, at both the ethnic-group and the country level. |
| Keywords: | Culture; Phylogenetic Distances; Narratives, Comparative Development. |
| JEL: | J15 Z10 |
| Date: | 2023–05–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sef:csefwp:674&r=lab |