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on Labour Economics |
| By: | Andrea Albanese; Bart Cockx; Muriel Dejemeppe |
| Abstract: | We use (donut) regression discontinuity design and difference-in-differences estimators to estimate the impact of a one-shot hiring subsidy targeted at low-educated unemployed youths during the Great Recession recovery in Belgium. The subsidy increases job-finding in the private sector by 10 percentage points within one year of unemployment. Six years later, high school graduates accumulated 2.8 quarters more private employment. However, because they substitute private for public and self-employment, overall employment does not increase but is still better paid. For high school dropouts, no persistent gains emerge. Moreover, the neighboring attraction pole of Luxembourg induces a complete deadweight near the border. |
| Keywords: | hiring subsidies, youth unemployment, cross-border employment, regression discontinuity design, difference-in-differences, spillover effects, displacement |
| JEL: | C21 J08 J23 J24 J64 J68 J61 |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_9972&r=lab |
| By: | Britto, Diogo (Bocconi University); Fonseca, Alexandre (Federal Revenue of Brazil); Pinotti, Paolo (Bocconi University); Sampaio, Breno (Universidade Federal de Pernambuco); Warwar, Lucas (Universidade Federal de Pernambuco) |
| Abstract: | We provide the first estimates of intergenerational income mobility for a developing country, namely Brazil. We measure formal income from tax and employment registries, and we train machine learning models on census and survey data to predict informal income. The data reveal a much higher degree of persistence than previous estimates available for developed economies: a 10 percentile increase in parental income rank is associated with a 5.5 percentile increase in child income rank, and persistence is even higher in the top 5%. Children born to parents in the first income quintile face a 46% chance of remaining at the bottom when adults. We validate these estimates using two novel mobility measures that rank children and parents without the need to impute informal income. We document substantial heterogeneity in mobility across individual characteristics – notably gender and race – and across Brazilian regions. Leveraging children who migrate at different ages, we estimate that causal place effects explain 57% of the large spatial variation in mobility. Finally, assortative mating plays a strong role in household income persistence, and parental income is also strongly associated with several key long-term outcomes such as education, teenage pregnancy, occupation, mortality, and victimization. |
| Keywords: | intergenerational mobility, inequality, Brazil, migration, place effects |
| JEL: | J62 D31 I31 R23 |
| Date: | 2022–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp15611&r=lab |
| By: | Carrillo-Tudela, Carlos (University of Essex); Visschers, Ludo (University of Edinburgh); Wiczer, David (Stony Brook University) |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the cyclical behaviour of earnings risk and career changes. We document that the procyclical skewness of the earnings growth distribution arises mostly from the earnings changes of employer and occupation switchers. To uncover their relative importance in driving cyclical earnings changes and whether this arises from changes in the returns to mobility or mobility shocks, we propose a multi-sector business cycle model with on-the-job search and endogenous occupational mobility. Idiosyncratic occupational mobility is the main driver of cyclical earnings risk, mainly due to cyclical shifts in the returns to this mobility. This is the main reason why the sullying effects of recessions are long-lasting. These effects manifest themselves through a collapse of the job ladder and forgone lifetime earnings gains, especially for low-paid workers, and through large lifetime earnings losses among high-paid workers who experience forced occupational mobility and poor re-employment outcomes. |
| Keywords: | earnings, unemployment, business cycle, search, occupational mobility |
| JEL: | E24 E30 J62 J63 J64 |
| Date: | 2022–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp15603&r=lab |
| By: | Pedro Carneiro; Kjell G. Salvanes; Barton Willage; Alexander L.P. Willén |
| Abstract: | This paper examines if the effect of parental labor market shocks on child development depends on the age of the child at the time of the shock. To address this question, we leverage rich Norwegian population-wide register data and exploit mass layoffs and establishment closures as a source of exogenous variation in parental labor market shocks. We find that, even though displacement episodes early in children’s lives have the largest impacts on household income (because they persist for many years), displacement episodes occurring in the children’s teenage years have the largest effects on human capital accumulation. We show that most of the effects operate through the intensive margin of schooling, and that children – across childhood – are significantly more influenced by maternal labor shocks compared to paternal labor shocks. In terms of mechanisms, we show that the heterogeneous effects across child age likely are driven by short-term increases in maternal stress rather than by differences in how the parents respond to the shocks. |
| Keywords: | job displacement, labor market shocks, intergenerational transmission, human capital |
| JEL: | I20 J12 J13 J63 D10 |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_9998&r=lab |
| By: | Clemens, Michael A. (Center for Global Development) |
| Abstract: | Immigration policy can have important net fiscal effects that vary by immigrants' skill level. But mainstream methods to estimate these effects are problematic. Methods based on cashflow accounting offer precision at the cost of bias; methods based on general equilibrium modeling address bias with limited precision and transparency. A simple adjustment greatly reduces bias in the most influential and precise estimates: conservatively accounting for capital taxes paid by the employers of immigrant labor. The adjustment is required by firms' profit-maximizing behavior, unconnected to general equilibrium effects. Adjusted estimates of the positive net fiscal impact of average recent U.S. immigrants rise by a factor of 3.2, with a much shallower education gradient. They are positive even for an average recent immigrant with less than high school education, whose presence causes a present-value subsidy of at least $128,000 to all other taxpayers collectively. |
| Keywords: | immigration, fiscal, tax, revenue, budget, deficit, surplus, capital, cost, benefit, dividend, subsidy, burden, social security, welfare, outlays, balance, foreign, skill, government, public |
| JEL: | F22 H68 J61 |
| Date: | 2022–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp15592&r=lab |
| By: | Berge, Lars Ivar Oppedal (Department of Business and Management); Bjorvatn, Kjetil (Dept. of Economics, Norwegian School of Economics and Business Administration); Makene, Fortunata (Economic and Social Research Foundation); Sekei, Linda Helgesson (NIRAS); Somville, Vincent (Dept. of Economics, Norwegian School of Economics and Business Administration); Tungodden, Bertil (Dept. of Economics, Norwegian School of Economics and Business Administration) |
| Abstract: | We report from a large-scale randomized controlled trial of women empowerment in Tanzania investigating how two different empowerment strategies, economic empowerment and reproductive health empowerment, shape the economic and fertility choices of young women when they transition into adulthood. The analysis builds on a rich data set (survey, experimental, and medical data) collected over more than five years. The economic empowerment reduces poverty, while teenage pregnancy increases with both economic and reproductive health empowerment. The increase in fertility comes from a positive income effect and by women entering earlier into a relationship. We also provide evidence of the importance of social norms and labor market flexibility in explaining the income and relationship effects on fertility. The findings provide new insights on the economics of fertility, and show the importance of a comprehensive approach to women empowerment. |
| Keywords: | Women empowerment; Economic empowerment; Fertility; Poverty |
| JEL: | J13 J16 |
| Date: | 2022–10–27 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:nhheco:2022_015&r=lab |
| By: | Bicakova, Alena (CERGE-EI); Kaliskova, Klara (CERGE-EI) |
| Abstract: | We study the impact of an extension of paid family leave from 3 to 4 years on child long- term outcomes. Using a difference-in-differences design and comparing the first-affected with the last-unaffected cohorts of children, we find that an additional year of maternal care at the age of 3, which primarily crowded out enrollment into public kindergartens, had an adverse effect for children of low-educated mothers on human capital investments and labor-market attachment in early adulthood. The affected children were 12 p.p. more likely not to be in education, employment, or training (NEET) at the age of 21-22. The impact on daughters was larger and driven by a lower probability of attending college and higher probability of home production. Sons of low-educated mothers, on the other hand, were less likely to be employed. The results suggest that exposure to formal childcare may be more beneficial than all-day maternal care at the age of 3, especially for children with a lower socio-economic background. |
| Keywords: | family leave, maternal care, subsidized childcare, child outcomes, human capital, labor-market attachment |
| JEL: | J13 J18 J21 J24 |
| Date: | 2022–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp15640&r=lab |
| By: | Regmi, Krishna; Wang, Le |
| Abstract: | Supporting working mothers to balance their work and childcare responsibilities is a central objective of maternal and parental leave policies. Nearly all countries offer some forms of maternity and family leave programs for childbearing on a national basis. This chapter reviews various types of leave policies available for working mothers (or parents) across countries and whether and how the policies affect women's labor market outcomes, their own and children's health, and child development. The leave policies can also influence women's fertility choices, as well as household specialization and husbands' labor supply. Recent studies also note the potential impacts on employers and coworkers of mothers who are on leave. One message that this chapter draws from the vast literature - with diverse and, in some instances, contradictory findings - is that policy debates should not center around whether or not governments should offer paid leave; rather they should focus on how to design more efficient or optimal leave programs. This chapter discusses some preliminary lessons for designing a leave program. |
| Keywords: | maternity leave,parental leave,gender role,birth outcomes,breastfeeding,infant health,children's outcomes,mothers' health,labor supply,fertility,divorce |
| JEL: | H31 I12 I18 J21 J22 J16 J71 J78 J22 J12 J13 J38 J83 J88 K36 |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:1184&r=lab |
| By: | Kunze, Astrid (Dept. of Economics, Norwegian School of Economics and Business Administration); Katrin Scharfenkamp, Katrin (University of Bielefeld) |
| Abstract: | This study investigates boards of (non-executive) directors and whether employee representation has a positive effect on gender diversity on boards. We exploit rich, newly assembled board–director matched panel data for Norway and Germany, which contain unique information on whether a director represents shareholders or employees during the period around 2008, when a Norwegian board gender quota came into effect. We present two novel results that challenge previous thinking about the effects of board gender quotas on women directors. First, we find a positive impact of employee representation before the gender quota reform on gender diversity. Second, although the Norwegian gender quota has increased the probability of a director being female, the effect through employee representation has relatively decreased after and the implementation of the reform. We discuss potential mechanisms and implications for the design of co-determination laws and gender quotas. |
| Keywords: | Affirmative action; employee representation; shared governance; co-determination; women; boards of directors; firm size |
| JEL: | G30 J16 K30 L21 L25 M54 |
| Date: | 2022–10–31 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:nhheco:2022_016&r=lab |
| By: | Martha J. Bailey; Janet Currie; Hannes Schwandt |
| Abstract: | We use restricted natality microdata covering the universe of U.S. births for 2015-2021 and California births from 2015 to August 2022 to examine the childbearing response to the COVID-19 pandemic. Although fertility rates declined in 2020, these declines appear to reflect reductions in travel to the U.S. Childbearing in the U.S. among foreign-born mothers declined immediately after lockdowns began—nine months too soon to reflect the pandemic’s effects on conceptions. We also find that the COVID pandemic resulted in a small “baby bump” among U.S.-born mothers. The 2021 baby bump is the first major reversal in declining U.S. fertility rates since 2007 and was most pronounced for first births and women under age 25, which suggests the pandemic led some women to start their families earlier. Above age 25, the baby bump was also pronounced for women ages 30-34 and women with a college education, who were more likely to benefit from working from home. The data for California track the U.S. data closely and suggest that U.S. births remained elevated through the third quarter of 2022. |
| JEL: | J0 |
| Date: | 2022–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:30569&r=lab |
| By: | Tito Boeri; Pierre Cahuc |
| Abstract: | The recovery from the Covid-19 crisis will force governments to accelerate transformation in their menu of labor market policy tools. The crisis was a stress test for unemployment insurance schemes as it involved a sudden and unexpected shutdown of a very large set of activities. This forced countries to introduce, often from scratch, income support schemes for workers under new forms of employment, and the self-employed. There was also a considerable expansion of short-time work schemes notably towards the small business. The challenge ahead of us is perhaps even harder as post-Covid19 labor markets are likely to be characterized by substantial labor reallocation. Major innovations in labor market policy are required to smooth consumption of workers involved in this reallocation. We survey the large body of research on schemes reducing the costs of reallocation complementary to unemployment insurance. Our attention is on short-time work (preventing layoffs by subsidizing hours reductions), partial unemployment insurance (enabling workers to combine unemployment benefits with low-income jobs), and wage insurance (offering a temporary wage subsidy to workers changing jobs). The properties of these new schemes are first presented and compared to those of standard unemployment benefits. Next the main results of the empirical literature on the effects of wage insurance, partial unemployment insurance and short-time work are presented. A final section is devoted to discussing directions for further research. |
| Keywords: | partial unemployment insurance, wage insurance, short-time work |
| Date: | 2022–10–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cep:cepdps:dp1875&r=lab |
| By: | Böckerman, Petri (Labour Institute for Economic Research); Haapanen, Mika (Jyväskylä University School of Business and Economics); Johansson, Edvard (Abo Akademi University) |
| Abstract: | We analyze whether employees with diagnosed mental health disorders have a higher probability of being laid off during corporate downsizing. Our analysis is based on nationwide administrative data on all private sector firms and their employees in Finland over the period 2005–2017. We focus on firms with at least 20 employees that lay off at least 20% of their total workforce between two consecutive years. We estimate whether those who have been laid off have more diagnosed mental health disorders before downsizing happens than those who have not been laid off. In our baseline specification, controlling for a rich set of employee characteristics, we find that having had any mental health disorder diagnosis in the three years that preceded the downsizing increases the probability that an employee is laid off by 6 percentage points. The results highlight that those with underlying mental health disorders are more vulnerable to losing their jobs, even in the event of a mass layoff. |
| Keywords: | unemployment, health, mental heath, job displacement, corporate downsizing, mass layoff |
| JEL: | I10 I12 J64 |
| Date: | 2022–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp15645&r=lab |
| By: | Kulati, Ellam (Warsaw University); Myck, Michal (Centre for Economic Analysis, CenEA); Pasini, Giacomo (Ca' Foscari University of Venice) |
| Abstract: | We explore intertemporal decision-making in later life by looking at temporal preference heterogeneity among older individuals. Using choice tasks responses from Poland collected as part of the Survey of Health, Ageing, and Retirement in Europe (SHARE), we elicit individual time preferences using competing discounting specifications. With the formulation that best fits our data, we examine which individual characteristics drive the estimated heterogeneity in later life time preferences. Individual numerical abilities, labour and marital status, as well as household income turn out to be significant correlates of patience. Our analysis also provides methodological guidance for instrument design with the aim of eliciting time preferences in a general survey setting. |
| Keywords: | time preferences, discount rate, present bias, survey methodology, old age |
| JEL: | D12 D15 C83 J14 |
| Date: | 2022–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp15643&r=lab |
| By: | Adermon, Adrian (IFAU - Institute for Evaluation of Labour Market and Education Policy); Laun, Lisa (IFAU - Institute for Evaluation of Labour Market and Education Policy); Lind, Patrik (IFAU - Institute for Evaluation of Labour Market and Education Policy); Olsson, Martin (IFN); Sauermann, Jan (IFAU - Institute for Evaluation of Labour Market and Education Policy); Sjögren , Anna (IFAU - Institute for Evaluation of Labour Market and Education Policy) |
| Abstract: | Many governments introduced temporary adjustments to counter the economic and health consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic. We study the importance of already existing government transfers and pandemic measures to mitigate individual income losses during the pandemic in Sweden using a difference-in-differences approach and population-wide data on monthly earnings and government transfer payments. We find that labor earnings dropped by 2.7 percent in 2020. Existing transfers and pandemic measures reduced earnings losses to 1.5 percent. These average effects mask considerable differences in income losses, which were, by and large, evened out by existing transfers and pandemic measures. |
| Keywords: | COVID-19; income inequality; government transfers; short-time work |
| JEL: | C23 D31 E24 H12 H20 |
| Date: | 2022–10–27 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:ifauwp:2022_020&r=lab |
| By: | Darke, Matthew James (University of Warwick) |
| Abstract: | Developments in Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning technologies have had massive implications for labour automation. This paper builds on the task-based methodology first adopted by Frey and Osborne (2013) to predict how the risk of automation evolved in the UK labour between 2012 and 2017 using data from the UK Skills and Employment Survey. The analysis accounts for technological progress, making use of two sets of experts’ assessments for 70 occupations. The probability of automation is predicted for each individual using a set of self-reported job skills. It finds that the proportion of jobs at high-risk from automation has risen from 10.6% to 23.4%, and that this is largely due to better technology rather than changing job skill requirements. It also identifies sectors experiencing the greatest increase in automation risk between the two periods and, in contrast, those which appear complementary to technology, drawing on occupational case studies as evidence. |
| Keywords: | Employment ; Skills Demand ; Technology JEL Classification: J01 ; J21 ; J24 ; J62 ; O33 |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wrk:wrkesp:41&r=lab |
| By: | Jean-Victor Alipour; Oliver Falck; Simon Krause; Carla Krolage; Sebastian Wichert |
| Abstract: | We estimate the impact of Covid-induced working from home (WFH) on offline consumer spending in urban agglomerations. Our analysis draws on postcode-level data on card transactions and WFH patterns in major German cities between January 2019 and May 2022. We address endogeneity in WFH uptake by estimating intention-to-treat effects based on “untapped WFH potential”, i.e. the share of employees with a teleworkable job who did not WFH pre-pandemic. This measure approximates the local scope to expand WFH and explains both observed WFH growth during the pandemic as well as prospective employer plans and employee desires. Difference-in-differences estimates show that local spending increases by 2–3 percent per standard deviation higher untapped WFH potential. The effects are only significant in non-lockdown periods and after Covid restrictions are permanently lifted. Null effects during lockdowns are consistent with temporary shifts toward online spending when business closures preclude regional relocation of offline consumption. |
| Keywords: | Covid-19, geography of consumption, consumer spending, work from home, Germany |
| JEL: | D10 E20 G20 J00 |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_10000&r=lab |
| By: | Dao, Thang (University of Roehampton); Kalkuhl, Matthias (Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change (MCC)); Vasilakis, Chrysovalantis ((CEE) Centre D'Ètudes de L'Emploi) |
| Abstract: | We consider how the demographic transition has been shaped in regions that are the least developed and the most vulnerable to climate change. Environmental conditions affect intra-household labor allocation because of the impacts on local resources under the poor infrastructural system. Climate change causes damage to local resources, offsetting the role of technological progress in saving time that women spend on their housework. Hence, the gender inequality in education/income is upheld, delaying declines in fertility and creating population momentum. The bigger population, in turn, degrades local resources through expanded production. The interplay between local resources, gender inequality, and population, under the persistent effect of climate change, may thus generate a slow demographic transition and stagnation. We provide empirical confirmation for our theoretical predictions from 44 Sub-Saharan African countries. |
| Keywords: | climate change, local resources, fertility, gender inequality in education, slow demographic transition |
| JEL: | J11 J16 Q01 Q20 Q54 Q56 |
| Date: | 2022–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp15646&r=lab |
| By: | Bertschek, Irene (ZEW Mannheim); Block, Jörn (University of Trier); Kritikos, Alexander S. (DIW Berlin); Stiel, Caroline (DIW Berlin) |
| Abstract: | In response to strong revenue and income losses that a large share of the self-employed faced during the COVID-19 pandemic, the German federal government introduced a €50bn emergency aid program. Based on real-time online-survey data comprising more than 20,000 observations, we analyze the impact of this program on the subjective survival probability. In particular, we investigate how the digitalization level of the self-employed influences the program's effectiveness. Employing propensity score matching, we find that the emergency aid program had only moderately positive effects on the confidence of the self-employed to survive the crisis. However, the self-employed whose businesses were highly digitalized, benefitted much more from the state aid compared to those whose businesses were less digitalized. This holds true only for those self-employed in advanced digitalization stages, who started the digitalization processes already before the crisis. Moreover, taking a regional perspective, we find suggestive evidence that the quality of the regional broadband infrastructure matters in the sense that it increases the effectiveness of the emergency aid program. Our findings show the interplay between governmental support programs, the digitalization levels of entrepreneurs, and the regional digital infrastructure. The study helps public policy to increase the impact of crisis-related policy instruments. |
| Keywords: | self-employment, emergency aid, treatment effects, COVID-19, entrepreneurship, digitalization, resilience |
| JEL: | C14 H43 L25 L26 J68 O33 |
| Date: | 2022–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp15608&r=lab |
| By: | Michèle Tertilt (Universität Mannheim); Matthias Doepke (Northwestern University); Anne Hannusch (University of Mannheim); Laura Moutenbruck (University of Mannheim) |
| Abstract: | Two centuries ago, in most countries around the world, women were unable to vote, had no say over their own children or property, and could not obtain a divorce. Women have gradually gained rights in many areas of life, and this legal expansion has been closely intertwined with economic development. We aim to understand the drivers behind these reforms. To this end, we distinguish between four types of women's rights—economic, political, labor, and body—and document their evolution over the past 50 years across countries. We summarize the political-economy mechanisms that link economic development to changes in women's rights and show empirically that these mechanisms account for a large share of the variation in women's rights across countries and over time. |
| Keywords: | female suffrage, family economics, bargaining, political economy |
| JEL: | D13 D72 E24 J12 J16 N30 O10 O43 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hka:wpaper:2022-036&r=lab |
| By: | Stephan Heblich (University of Toronto); Stephen J. Redding (Princeton University); Hans-Joachim Voth (University of Zurich) |
| Abstract: | Did overseas slave-holding by Britons accelerate the Industrial Revolution? We provide theory and evidence on the contribution of slave wealth to Britain’s growth prior to 1835. We compare areas of Britain with high and low exposure to the colonial plantation economy, using granular data on wealth from compensation records. Before the major expansion of slave holding from the 1640s onwards, both types of area exhibited similar levels of economic activity. However, by the 1830s, slavery wealth is strongly correlated with economic development – slave-holding areas are less agricultural, closer to cotton mills, and have higher property wealth. We rationalize these findings using a dynamic spatial model, where slavery investment raises the return to capital accumulation, expanding production in capital-intensive sectors. To establish causality, we use arguably exogenous variation in slave mortality on the passage from Africa to the Indies, driven by weather shocks. We show that weather shocks influenced the continued involvement of ancestors in the slave trade; weather-induced slave mortality of slave-trading ancestors in each area is strongly predictive of slaveholding in 1833. Quantifying our model using the observed data, we find that Britain would have been substantially poorer and more agricultural in the absence of overseas slave wealth. Overall, our findings are consistent with the view that slavery wealth accelerated Britain’s industrial revolution. |
| Keywords: | Slavery, Industrial Revolution, Great Britain |
| JEL: | F60 J15 N63 |
| Date: | 2022–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pri:econom:2022-29&r=lab |
| By: | Kalin, Salla; Kauppinen, Ilpo; Kotakorpi, Kaisa; Pirttilä, Jukka |
| Abstract: | While evidence on the impact of taxation on the international migration of certain special groups of workers has expanded, evidence on the links between taxes and migration of the general population is extremely limited. We aim to fll this gap by estimating the impact of taxation on the migration decisions of the entire working population in a high-tax source country, Finland. We fnd that the average domestic elasticity of migration with respect to the domestic tax rate is very small (around 0.001). This holds for various occupational and income groups of interest. We also provide a frst empirical implementation of the theoretical results of Lehmann et al. (2014), who show that if a fully nonlinear income tax schedule at the top is used, the key suÿcient statistic for the optimal tax is a semi-elasticity of migration. Our estimates indicate that the migration responses increase for top earners, but remain very small, at least up to the top per mille of income earners. |
| Keywords: | taxation, emigration, Social security, taxation and inequality, Labour markets and education, J61, H31, fi=Verotus|sv=Beskattning|en=Taxation|, |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fer:wpaper:150&r=lab |
| By: | Seth G. Benzell; Laurence J. Kotlikoff; Maria Kazakova; Guillermo LaGarda; Kristina Nesterova; Victor Yifan Ye; Andrey Zubarev |
| Abstract: | Which region(s) will come to dominate the world economy? This paper develops the Global Gaidar Model (GGM), a 17-region, 2-skills, 100-period OLG model, to address this and other questions. The model is carefully calibrated to 2017 UN demographic and IMF fiscal data. Productivity growth and its interaction with demographic change are the main drivers of future economic power. Fiscal conditions and automation matter are secondary factors. Our baseline simulations, which forecast productivity growth using each region’s long-term record, predict China and India becoming the world’s top two economic hegemons. GGM also predicts an evolving global savings glut, major reductions in world interest rates, substantial increases in tax rates in China and other regions due to population aging, and permanent differences in regional living standards. Our findings are, however, highly sensitive to productivity growth. If productivity growth continues at each region’s very recent pace, India will account for one third of 2100 world output and China for over one fifth. The US output share will grow slightly. Under other scenarios, productivity growth in China and India dramatically slows; Sub Saharan Africa’s sky rockets, leaving China’s plus India’s 2100 output share at only 16 percent and Africa’s at an astounding 17 percent. |
| JEL: | E0 J0 O1 |
| Date: | 2022–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:30556&r=lab |
| By: | Eric Chyn; Kareem Haggag; Bryan A. Stuart |
| Abstract: | This paper provides new evidence on the causal impacts of city-wide racial segregation on intergenerational mobility. We use an instrumental variable approach that relies on plausibly exogenous variation in segregation due to the arrangement of railroad tracks in the nineteenth century. Our analysis finds that higher segregation reduces upward mobility for Black children from households across the income distribution and White children from low-income households. Moreover, segregation lowers academic achievement while increasing incarceration and teenage birth rates. An analysis of mechanisms shows that segregation reduces government spending, weakens support for anti-poverty policies, and increases racially conservative attitudes for White residents. |
| JEL: | D63 H0 J0 R0 |
| Date: | 2022–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:30563&r=lab |
| By: | Cheong, Jeanne Yi-Ern (Monash University) |
| Abstract: | Why do female leaders do better in crisis situations than their male counterparts as a stylised fact? We integrate intrinsic preference into a Leader – Expert coordination game to model the impact of dominant strategies on the effectiveness of crisis management outcomes. We show that given the Leader has intrinsic preference for cooperative (competitive) behaviour, the Expert will reciprocate in kind which results in the highest (lowest) social outcome. Using cultural transmission theory to develop the theoretical micro-foundation of this preference, we find socialisation inefficiencies arising from two-parent socialisation result in the persistence of cooperative traits in women and competitive traits in men, thereby providing a mechanism for more effective crisis management by female leaders. Drawing upon feminist and leadership theory to inform our assumptions, we suggest that collective ability to deal with crisis will be improved if male leaders are more cooperative. |
| Keywords: | gender ; crisis management ; cultural transmission ; leadership JEL Classification: J16 ; B52 ; B54 ; C71 |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wrk:wrkesp:38&r=lab |