nep-lab New Economics Papers
on Labour Economics
Issue of 2022‒11‒07
29 papers chosen by
Joseph Marchand
University of Alberta

  1. Immigrants and Trade Union Membership: Does Integration into Society and Workplace Play a Moderating Role? By Bedaso, Fenet Jima; Jirjahn, Uwe; Goerke, Laszlo
  2. The Timing of Parental Job Displacement, Child Development and Family Adjustment By Carneiro, Pedro; Salvanes, Kjell G.; Willage, Barton; Willén, Alexander
  3. The Effect of Labor Market Shocks across the Life Cycle By Salvanes, Kjell G.; Willage, Barton; Willén, Alexander
  4. Long-Term Effects of Hiring Subsidies for Unemployed Youths-Beware of Spillovers By Andrea Albanese; Bart Cockx; Muriel Dejemeppe
  5. The Kids Aren't Alright: Parental Job Loss and Children's Outcomes within and beyond Schools By Britto, Diogo; Melo, Caíque; Sampaio, Breno
  6. Opening the Labor Market to Qualified Immigrants in Absence of Linguistic Barriers By Gatti, Nicolò; Mazzonna, Fabrizio; Parchet, Raphaël; Pica, Giovanni
  7. Technical Change, Task Allocation, and Labor Unions By Marczak, Martyna; Beissinger, Thomas; Brall, Franziska
  8. Women's Careers and Family Formation By Bhalotra, Sonia R.; Clarke, Damian; Walther, Selma
  9. Old-Age Unemployment and Labor Supply: An Application to Belgium By De Brouwer, Octave; Tojerow, Ilan
  10. The Employment and Displacement Effects of Job Counseling: Evidence from the U.S. Unemployment Insurance System By Marios Michaelides; Peter Mueser
  11. Comparing the Effects of Policies for the Labor Market Integration of Refugees By Mette Foged; Linea Hasager; Giovanni Peri
  12. The Times Have Changed: Tracking the Evolution of Gender Norms over Time By Kuhn, Andreas
  13. Tax Incentives for High Skilled Migrants: Evidence from a Preferential Tax Scheme in the Netherlands By Timm, Lisa Marie; Giuliodori, Massimo; Muller, Paul
  14. Culture, Children and Couple Gender Inequality By Jessen, Jonas
  15. Exports and Labor Demand: Evidence from Egyptian Firm-Level Data By Berg, Claudia N.; Robertson, Raymond; Lopez-Acevedo, Gladys
  16. Expansions in Paid Parental Leave and Mothers' Economic Progress By Corekcioglu, Gozde; Francesconi, Marco; Kunze, Astrid
  17. The effects of unemployment among single mothers on adolescent children’s mental health By Mine Kühn; Anna Baranowska; Niina Metsä-Simola; Liina M. Junna; Pekka Martikainen
  18. The role of sex segregation in the gender wage gap among university graduates in Germany By Doris Weichselbaumer; Juliane Ransmayr
  19. The Covid-19 Baby Bump: The Unexpected Increase in U.S. Fertility Rates in Response to the Pandemic By Martha J. Bailey; Janet Currie; Hannes Schwandt
  20. "Workhorses of Opportunity": Regional Universities Increase Local Social Mobility By Howard, Greg; Weinstein, Russell
  21. How the Rise of Teleworking Will Reshape Labor Markets and Cities By Toshitaka Gokan; Sergei Kichko; Jesse A. Matheson; Jacques-Francois Thisse
  22. Social Contacts, Unemployment, and Experienced Well-Being. Evidence from Time-Use Data By Thi Truong An Hoang; Andreas Knabe
  23. Gendered professions, prestigious professions: when stereotypes condition career choices. By Magali Jaoul-Grammare
  24. Dust to Feed, Dust to Grey: The Effect of In-Utero Exposure to the Dust Bowl on Old-Age Longevity By Hamid Noghanibehambari; Jason Fletcher
  25. Price shocks and human capital: Timing matters By Habtamu Ali Beshir; Jean-François Maystadt
  26. Job Preferences of Aged Care Workers in Australia: Results from a Discrete Choice Experiment By Mavromaras, Kostas; Isherwood, Linda; Mahuteau, Stephane; Ratcliffe, Julie; Xiao, Lily; Harrington, Ann; Wei, Zhang
  27. One Instrument to Rule Them All: The Bias and Coverage of Just-ID IV By Joshua Angrist; Michal Kolesár
  28. Economic Development and the Organisation of Labour: Evidence from the Jobs of the World Project By Bandiera, Oriana; Elsayed, Ahmed; Heil, Anton; Smurra, Andrea
  29. Demography, Capital Accumulation and Growth By Robert Stehrer; Maryna Tverdostup

  1. By: Bedaso, Fenet Jima (University of Trier); Jirjahn, Uwe (University of Trier); Goerke, Laszlo (IAAEU, University of Trier)
    Abstract: We hypothesize that incomplete integration into the workplace and society implies that immigrants are less likely to be union members than natives. Incomplete integration makes the usual mechanism for overcoming the collective action problem less effective. Using data from the Socio-Economic Panel, our empirical analysis confirms a unionization gap for first-generation immigrants in Germany. Importantly, the analysis shows that the immigrant-native gap in union membership indeed depends on immigrants' integration into the workplace and society. The gap is smaller for immigrants working in firms with a works council and having social contacts with Germans. Our analysis also confirms that the gap is decreasing in the years since arrival in Germany.
    Keywords: union membership, migration, works council, social contacts with natives, years since arrival
    JEL: J15 J52 J61
    Date: 2022–09
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp15587&r=
  2. By: Carneiro, Pedro (University College London); Salvanes, Kjell G. (Norwegian School of Economics); Willage, Barton (University of Colorado Denver); Willén, Alexander (Norwegian School of Economics)
    Abstract: This paper examines if the effect of parental labor market shocks on child development depends on the age of the child at the time of the shock. To address this question, we leverage rich Norwegian population-wide register data and exploit mass layoffs and establishment closures as a source of exogenous variation in parental labor market shocks. We find that, even though displacement episodes early in children's lives have the largest impacts on household income (because they persist for many years), displacement episodes occurring in the children's teenage years have the largest effects on human capital accumulation. We show that most of the effects operate through the intensive margin of schooling, and that children – across childhood – are significantly more influenced by maternal labor shocks compared to paternal labor shocks. In terms of mechanisms, we show that the heterogeneous effects across child age likely are driven by short-term increases in maternal stress rather than by differences in how the parents respond to the shocks.
    Keywords: job displacement, labor market shocks, intergenerational transmission, human capital
    JEL: I20 J12 J13 J63 D10
    Date: 2022–10
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp15630&r=
  3. By: Salvanes, Kjell G. (Norwegian School of Economics); Willage, Barton (University of Colorado Denver); Willén, Alexander (Norwegian School of Economics)
    Abstract: Adverse economic shocks occur frequently and may cause individuals to reevaluate key life decisions in ways that have lasting consequences for themselves and the economy. These life decisions are fundamentally tied to specific periods of an individual's career, and economic shocks may therefore have substantially different impacts on individuals - and the broader economy - depending on when they occur. We exploit mass layoffs and establishment closures to examine the impact of adverse shocks across the life cycle on labor market outcomes and major life decisions: human capital investment, mobility, family structure, and retirement. Our results reveal substantial heterogeneity on labor market effects and life decisions in response to economic shocks across the life cycle. Individuals at the beginning of their careers invest in human capital and relocate to new labor markets, individuals in the middle of their careers reduce fertility and adjust family formation decisions, and individuals at the end of their careers permanently exit the workforce and retire. As a consequence of the differential interactions between economic shocks and life decisions, the very long-term career implications of labor shocks vary considerably depending on when the shock occurs. We conclude that effects of adverse labor shocks are both more varied and more extensive than has previously been recognized, and that focusing on average effects among workers across the life cycle misses a great deal.
    Keywords: labor supply, human capital, education, fertility, family formation, mobility, retirement, disability, economic shocks, job displacement
    JEL: I20 J63
    Date: 2022–10
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp15634&r=
  4. By: Andrea Albanese (Luxembourg Institute of Socio-Economic Research (LISER), Luxembourg, Department of Economics, Ghent University, Belgium, IRES/LIDAM, UCLouvain, Belgium, IZA, Bonn, Germany, e GLO, Essen, Germany); Bart Cockx (Luxembourg Institute of Socio-Economic Research (LISER), Luxembourg, Department of Economics, Ghent University, Belgium, IRES/LIDAM, UCLouvain, Belgium, CESIfo, Munich, Germany, g ROA, Maastricht University); Muriel Dejemeppe (UNIVERSITE CATHOLIQUE DE LOUVAIN, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES))
    Abstract: We use (donut) regression discontinuity design and difference-in-differences estimators to estimate the impact of a one-shot hiring subsidy targeted at low-educated unemployed youths during the Great Recession recovery in Belgium. The subsidy increases job-finding in the private sector by 10 percentage points within one year of unemployment. Six years later, high school graduates accumulated 2.8 quarters more private employment. However, because they substitute private for public and self-employment, overall employment does not increase but is still better paid. For high school dropouts, no persistent gains emerge. Moreover, the neighboring attraction pole of Luxembourg induces a complete deadweight near the border.
    Keywords: Hiring subsidies, youth unemployment, cross-border employment, regression discontinuity design, difference-in-differences, spillover effects, displacement
    JEL: C21 J08 J23 J24 J64 J68 J61
    Date: 2022–09–16
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ctl:louvir:2022019&r=
  5. By: Britto, Diogo (Bocconi University); Melo, Caíque (Bocconi University); Sampaio, Breno (Universidade Federal de Pernambuco)
    Abstract: We study the effects of parental job loss on children and how access to unemployment benefits can mitigate these impacts. We leverage unique nationwide data from Brazil linking multiple administrative datasets, and take a comprehensive approach studying impacts on education as well as other key dimensions of children's lives. First, leveraging mass layoffs for identification, we show that parental job loss increases school dropouts and age-grade distortion by up to 1.5 percentage points. These effects are pervasive, last for at least six years and significantly reduce high-school completion rates. Second, we document that other important dimensions of children's lives are affected. Following the layoff, children are more likely to work informally, commit crime, and experience early pregnancy. In turn, parents reduce educational investments by moving children from private to lower-quality public schools. Using a clean regression discontinuity design, we show that access to unemployment benefits effectively mitigates some of the intergenerational impacts of job loss, notably on teenage school dropouts and crime, and on parental investments in school quality. Our findings indicate that the income losses following parental displacement are an important mechanism of the effects on children, highlighting the importance of policies that provide income support for displaced workers.
    Keywords: parental job loss, children's outcomes, unemployment insurance, Brazil
    JEL: K42 J63 J65
    Date: 2022–09
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp15591&r=
  6. By: Gatti, Nicolò (USI Università della Svizzera Italiana); Mazzonna, Fabrizio (USI Università della Svizzera Italiana); Parchet, Raphaël (USI Università della Svizzera Italiana); Pica, Giovanni (USI Università della Svizzera Italiana)
    Abstract: This paper investigates the impact of opening the labor market to qualified immigrants who hold fully equivalent diplomas with respect to natives and speak the same mother tongue. Leveraging the 2002 opening of the Swiss labor market to qualified workers from the European Union, we show that the policy change led to a large inflow of young immigrants with the same linguistic background as natives. This, in turn, produced heterogeneous effects on natives wages and employment. While incumbent workers experienced a wage gain and a decrease in the likelihood of becoming inactive, the opposite happened for young natives entering the labor market after the policy change. This is likely the result of different patterns of complementarity/substitutability between same-language immigrants and natives with different levels of labor market experience.
    Keywords: worker substitutability, wage effects, qualified immigration, experience
    JEL: F22 J08 J31 J61
    Date: 2022–10
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp15631&r=
  7. By: Marczak, Martyna (University of Hohenheim); Beissinger, Thomas (University of Hohenheim); Brall, Franziska (University of Hohenheim)
    Abstract: We propose a novel framework that integrates the "task approach" for a more precise production modeling into the search-and-matching model with low- and high-skilled workers, and wage setting by labor unions. We establish the relationship between task reallocation and changes in wage pressure, and examine how skill- biased technical change (SBTC) affects the task composition, wages of both skill groups, and unemployment. In contrast to the canonical model with a fixed task allocation, low-skilled workers may be harmed in terms of either lower wages or higher unemployment depending on the relative task-related productivity profile of both worker types. We calibrate the model to the US and German data for the periods 1995-2005 and 2010-2017. The simulated effects of SBTC on low-skilled unemployment are largely consistent with observed developments. For example, US low-skilled unemployment increases due to SBTC in the earlier period and decreases after 2010.
    Keywords: task approach, search and matching, labor unions, skill-biased technical change, labor demand, wage setting
    JEL: J64 J51 E23 E24 O33
    Date: 2022–10
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp15632&r=
  8. By: Bhalotra, Sonia R. (University of Warwick); Clarke, Damian (University of Chile); Walther, Selma
    Abstract: This paper discusses research on the relationship between fertility and women's labour force participation. It surveys methods used to obtain causal identification, and provides an overview of the evidence of causal effects in both directions. We highlight a few themes that we regard as important in guiding research and in reading the evidence. These include the importance of distinguishing between extensive and intensive margin changes in both variables; consideration not only of women's participation but also of occupational and sectoral choice and of relative earnings; the relevance of studying dynamic effects and of analysing changes across the lifecycle and across successive cohorts; and of recognizing that women's choices over both fertility and labour force participation are subject to multiple constraints. We observe that, while technological innovations in reproductive health technologies have muted the familycareer tradeoff primarily by allowing women to time their fertility, policy has not achieved as much as it might.
    Keywords: fertility, birth spacing, abortion, ART, IVF, contraception, female labour force participation, gender wage gap, job loss, recession
    JEL: J01 J13 O15
    Date: 2022–10
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp15639&r=
  9. By: De Brouwer, Octave (Free University of Brussels); Tojerow, Ilan (Free University of Brussels)
    Abstract: Over the last two decades, most OECD countries have reformed their social security in order to make early departures from the labor market increasingly difficult. Despite the fiscal gains that are expected from these reforms, it is likely that these gains from longer careers will be partly offset by increasing expenses on other social security programs. This article sheds light on this issue by ex-ploring the consequences of postponing access to an old-age unemployment program from age 58 to 60. The program provides laid-off workers with a combination of unemployment benefits and a monthly supplement paid by the employer until the full retirement age. Exploiting a rich set of administrative data, we study the effect of this reform on workers' employment and various social security benefits (i.e. unemployment, disability, early retirement and compensated working time reductions), using a triple difference method as identification strategy. Our results show that, for men, the reform had a positive effect on employment, with a small positive effect on a program called Time-Credit, i.e., a social security program that facilitates working time reductions at the end of the career. For women, we find no significant effect on employment but instead a large spillover effect on unemployment. We find that gender differences in job characteristics can help to explain this difference, since women are more likely to work in part-time, low-wage and blue-collar occupations than men, and no significant employment effects are found for these groups of workers.
    Keywords: disability, old-age unemployment, early retirement, senior employment
    JEL: J26 J65
    Date: 2022–10
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp15628&r=
  10. By: Marios Michaelides (University of Cyprus); Peter Mueser (University of Missouri)
    Abstract: We present experimental evidence on the effects of a job counseling program targeting Unemployment Insurance (UI) recipients in Nevada both in the context of the Great Recession and a strong economy. The program reduced UI duration, yielded large UI savings, and improved participant employment and earnings in both periods. Effects are partly due to early participant exits to avoid program requirements (moral hazard effect) and partly due to participant exits after receiving counseling (services effect); however, it appears that moral hazard is more important during a tight market and services are more valuable during a recession. We find no evidence that the positive effects of job counseling for participants are accompanied by negative spillover effects for nonparticipants. Our findings support the view that, regardless of prevailing economic conditions, requiring UI recipients to receive job counseling at the start of their UI spells constitutes an effective reemployment policy.
    Keywords: Great Recession, job counseling, reemployment assistance, active labor market policies, unemployment, Unemployment Insurance, program evaluation
    JEL: J6 H4
    Date: 2022–10
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:umc:wpaper:2208&r=
  11. By: Mette Foged; Linea Hasager; Giovanni Peri
    Abstract: This paper estimates, within a common framework, the effects of four types of integration polices on the employment probability and earnings of refugees in Denmark during the last three decades. We first review the studies that use a credible identification strategy to evaluate the causal effects of these types of policies on the assimilation of refugees in developed countries. We then describe the dynamics of labor market outcomes of several cohorts of refugees in Denmark. To our knowledge, Denmark is the only country where the number and design of policy changes and the longitudinal individual data availability make such an analysis possible. Our analysis suggests that improved language training, combined with initial placement of refugees in strong labor markets, significantly improved their long-run labor market outcomes. On the contrary, cutting initial welfare payments and housing them near other refugees does not seem to improve their long-run outcomes. Active labor market policies focused on matching refugees with simple jobs in high demand occupations may have positive short-run effects, but we cannot yet assess their long-run effects.
    JEL: J15 J61 J62
    Date: 2022–10
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:30534&r=
  12. By: Kuhn, Andreas (Swiss Federal Institute for Vocational Education and Training)
    Abstract: Data on job advertisements from 1950 up to 2020 reveal that there was a significant change among Swiss employers' stated preferences regarding their prospective employees' gender. More specifically, the proportion of gender-neutral job posts increased from 5 to almost 95 percent within the observation period. To further corroborate and contextualize this finding, I complement it with time series on the relative frequency of several specific queries, such as equality between men and women, from Google's German language book corpus. These additional series are broadly consistent with the evolution of the share of gender-neutral job posts. However, it also appears that there are two distinct narratives, one concerned with the personal sphere, identity and intimate relationships, the other with the political and public realm. Interestingly, the narrative on personal relations set off considerably earlier than the change in the proportion of gender-neutral job ads. Overall, the evidence from the different data series shows that gender norms have changed substantively, yet in a complex manner, over the past decades.
    Keywords: social norms, gender norms, gender equality, job advertisements, narratives, cultural change, Google books
    JEL: D91 J16
    Date: 2022–10
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp15621&r=
  13. By: Timm, Lisa Marie (University of Amsterdam); Giuliodori, Massimo (University of Amsterdam); Muller, Paul (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam)
    Abstract: This paper examines to what extent an income tax exemption affects international mobility and wages of skilled immigrants. We study a preferential tax scheme for foreigners in the Netherlands, which introduced an income threshold for eligibility in 2012 and covers a large share of the migrant income distribution. By using detailed administrative data in a difference-in-differences setup, we find that the number of migrants in the income range closely above the threshold more than doubles, whereas there is little empirical support for a decrease of migration below the threshold. Our results indicate that these effects are driven mainly by additional migration, while wage bargaining responses are fairly limited. We conclude that the preferential tax scheme is highly effective in attracting more skilled migrants.
    Keywords: international migration, income tax benefits, wage bargaining, bunching
    JEL: F22 J61 H24 H31
    Date: 2022–09
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp15582&r=
  14. By: Jessen, Jonas (European University Viadrina, Frankfurt / Oder)
    Abstract: This paper examines how culture impacts within-couple gender inequality. Exploiting the setting of Germany's division and reunification, I compare child penalties of East Germans who were socialised in a more gender egalitarian culture to West Germans socialised in a gender-traditional culture. Using a household panel, I show that the long-run child penalty on the female income share is 23.9 percentage points for West German couples, compared to 12.9 for East German couples. The arrival of children also leads to a greater increase in the female share of housework and child care for West Germans. I add to the main findings by using time-use diary data from the German Democratic Republic (GDR) and reunified Germany, which provides a rare insight into gender inequality in the GDR and allows me to compare the effect of having children in the GDR to the effects in East and West Germany after reunification. Lastly, I show that attitudes towards maternal employment are more egalitarian among East Germans, but that the arrival of children leads to more traditional attitudes for both East and West Germans. The findings confirm that socialisation has a strong impact on child penalties and that family policies may have an impact on gender inequality through social learning in the long run.
    Keywords: cultural norms, gender inequality, child penalty
    JEL: J16 J22 D1
    Date: 2022–09
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp15571&r=
  15. By: Berg, Claudia N. (World Bank); Robertson, Raymond (Texas A&M University); Lopez-Acevedo, Gladys (World Bank)
    Abstract: Unlike many countries, Egypt did not experience significant labor market improvements following trade liberalization. In this paper, we build upon the earlier work of Robertson et al. (2021) to investigate why increased Egyptian exports did not directly increase employment. To illustrate the relationship between firm-level exporting and employment, we present a simplified general equilibrium model inspired by Melitz (2003) with two sectors: one able to export and one "reserve" sector. This paper tests the implications of this theory using firm-level data from the World Bank's Enterprise Surveys (ES) in 2013, 2016, and 2020. Our firm-level microanalysis demonstrates that while there is a positive employment response to export expansion, this is not occurring at a large enough scale to be felt at the macro level. To seize the benefits of trade, Egypt requires deeper business environment reforms to incentivize large export, labor-intensive sector growth and integrate its economy into global value chains.
    Keywords: exports, trade, employment, labor market, econometrics, Egypt
    JEL: F1 C1
    Date: 2022–10
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp15627&r=
  16. By: Corekcioglu, Gozde (Kadir Has University); Francesconi, Marco (University of Essex); Kunze, Astrid (Norwegian School of Economics)
    Abstract: We examine the impact of government-funded universal paid parental leave extensions on the likelihood that mothers reach top-pay jobs and executive positions, using eight Norwegian reforms. Up to a quarter of a century after childbirth, such reforms neither helped nor hurt mothers' chances to be at the top of their companies' pay ranking or in leadership positions. We detect no differential effect across many characteristics, and no impact on other outcomes, such as hours worked and promotions. No reform affected fathers' pay or the gender pay gaps between mothers and their male colleagues and between mothers and their partners.
    Keywords: gender inequality, within-firm pay ranking, glass ceiling, leadership, top executives
    JEL: H42 J13 J16 J18 M12 M14
    Date: 2022–09
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp15585&r=
  17. By: Mine Kühn (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany); Anna Baranowska (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany); Niina Metsä-Simola; Liina M. Junna; Pekka Martikainen (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany)
    Keywords: Finland
    JEL: J1 Z0
    Date: 2022
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2022-026&r=
  18. By: Doris Weichselbaumer; Juliane Ransmayr (Johannes Kepler Universtiy Linz)
    Abstract: In this paper we examine the gender wage gap among university graduates in Germany from 1997 to 2013 based on the DZHW (the German Centre for Higher Education Research and Science Studies) Absolventenpanel. We focus in particular on the effect of female presence in a subject or occupation on wage inequality. Earlier research has shown not only that female-dominated university subjects or occupations pay less, but also that men face a higher wage penalty than women when they graduated in a female-dominated subject and experience a lower penalty for working in a female-dominated occupation. For the five waves considered, we confirm the very strong negative association between female presence in a subject or occupation and wages. However, no consistent pattern emerges with regard to whether men’s or women’s wages suffer larger penalties. There is also no time trend observable with regard to the wage penalty that is associated with female-dominated fields. We further show that significant gender wage gaps exist within fields of studies, especially in male-dominated fields like engineering and natural science.
    Keywords: gender wage gap, sex segregation, university graduates
    JEL: J16 J3 J7
    Date: 2022–09
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:jku:econwp:2022-12&r=
  19. By: Martha J. Bailey (University of California, Los Angeles); Janet Currie (Princeton University); Hannes Schwandt (Northwestern University)
    Abstract: We use restricted natality microdata covering the universe of U.S. births for 2015-2021 and California births from 2015 to August 2022 to examine the childbearing response to the COVID-19 pandemic. Although fertility rates declined in 2020, these declines appear to reflect reductions in travel to the U.S. Childbearing in the U.S. among foreign-born mothers declined immediately after lockdowns began—nine months too soon to reflect the pandemic’s effects on conceptions. We also find that the COVID pandemic resulted in a small “baby bump†among U.S.-born mothers. The 2021 baby bump is the first major reversal in declining U.S. fertility rates since 2007 and was most pronounced for first births and women under age 25, which suggests the pandemic led some women to start their families earlier. Above age 25, the baby bump was also pronounced for women ages 30-34 and women with a college education, who were more likely to benefit from working from home. The data for California track the U.S. data closely and suggest that U.S. births remained elevated through the third quarter of 2022.
    Keywords: Birth Rates, COVID, Fertility, "Baby Bump", Child Bearing, United States
    JEL: J0
    Date: 2022–10
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pri:econom:2022-30&r=
  20. By: Howard, Greg (University of Illinois); Weinstein, Russell (University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign)
    Abstract: Regional public universities educate approximately 70 percent of college students at four-year public universities and an even larger share of students from disadvantaged backgrounds. They aim to provide opportunity for education and social mobility, in part by locating near potential students. In this paper, we use the historical assignment of normal schools and insane asylums (normal schools grew into regional universities while asylums remain small) and data from Opportunity Insights to identify the effects of regional universities on the social mobility of nearby children. Children in counties given a normal school get more education and have better economic and social outcomes, especially lower-income children. For several key outcomes, we show this effect is a causal effect on children, and not only selection on which children live near universities.
    Keywords: economic mobility, regional universities, college attendance
    JEL: J62 I23 I26 R53
    Date: 2022–10
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp15622&r=
  21. By: Toshitaka Gokan; Sergei Kichko; Jesse A. Matheson; Jacques-Francois Thisse
    Abstract: In recent years the land-rent gradient for the city of London has flattened by 17 percentage points. Further, teleworking has increased 24 percentage point for skilled workers, but much less for unskilled workers. To rationalize these stylized facts, we propose a model of the monocentric city with heterogeneous workers and teleworking. Skilled workers, working in final goods production, can telework while unskilled workers, working in either final goods or local services production, cannot. We show that increased teleworking flattens the land-rent gradient, and eventually skilled workers move from the city center to the city’s periphery, fundamentally changing the city structure. The increased teleworking has implications for unskilled workers who move from the local services sector into final goods, leading to greater wage inequality between skilled and unskilled workers. The model is extended to two cities which differ in productivity. Teleworking allows skilled workers of the more productive city to reside in the less productive city where housing is cheaper. This increases housing prices in the less productive city, relative to the more productive city, and has implications for unskilled workers in both cities. We provide empirical evidence from housing prices in England which is consistent with this result.
    Keywords: telecommuting, working from home, gentrified cities, doughnut cities, inter-city commuting
    JEL: J60 R00
    Date: 2022
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_9952&r=
  22. By: Thi Truong An Hoang; Andreas Knabe
    Abstract: We use the UK Time-Use Survey 2014/15 to analyze how differences in the frequency and intensity of social contacts contribute to the gap in experienced well-being between employed and unemployed persons. We observe that people generally enjoy being with others more than being alone. The unemployed generally feel worse than the employed when engaging in the same kind of activities, partly because they are more often alone. The unemployed can replace lost work contacts only partially with private contacts. In terms of experienced well-being, however, the small increase in time spent with family and friends (which people enjoy a lot) offsets the loss of work contacts (which people generally enjoy only little). Hence, we do not find that the differences in the social-contact composition between the employed and the unemployed contribute to the difference in their experienced well-being.
    Keywords: unemployment, happiness, experienced well-being, time use, social contact, decomposition
    JEL: I31 D91 J60 J22
    Date: 2022
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_9953&r=
  23. By: Magali Jaoul-Grammare
    Abstract: Despite social changes and the opening up of all professions to men and women, society continues to adhere to many stereotypes, and many professions are still considered to be feminine or masculine. In addition to gendered representations of occupations, there are also social representations linked to the social prestige associated with a profession. These two elements shape the study and professional choices of individuals. Based on this observation, the aim of this article is twofold: on the one hand, to study the representation of professions according to the degree of feminization and the degree of prestige; on the other hand, to measure the influence of the perceptions of professions on the individual choices of professional project. I use a questionnaire administered to secondary school pupils and students. The results obtained show a differentiated influence of stereotypes on career plans. It also appears that individuals tend to underrate the professions they consider ‘feminine’.
    Keywords: orientation inequalities, gendered professions, social prestige, stereotypes.
    JEL: C25 C83 D83 D91 J16
    Date: 2022
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ulp:sbbeta:2022-28&r=
  24. By: Hamid Noghanibehambari; Jason Fletcher
    Abstract: Intensive agriculture and deep plowing resulted in top-soil erosion and dust storms during the 1930s. These effects have been shown to affect agricultural income and land values that persisted for years. Given the growing literature on the relevance of in-utero and early-life exposures, it is surprising that studies focusing on links between the Dust Bowl and later-life health find inconclusive and mixed results. This paper re-evaluates this literature and studies the long-term effects of in-utero and early-life exposure to top-soil erosion caused by the Dust Bowl of the 1930s on old-age longevity. Specifically, we employ Social Security Administration death records linked with the full-count 1940 census and implement event studies and difference-in-difference designs to compare the longevity of individuals in high/medium versus low top-soil erosion counties post-1930 versus pre-1930. We find intent-to-treat reductions in longevity of about 0.9 months for those born in high erosion counties post-1930. We show that these effects are not an artifact of preexisting trends in longevity. Additional analyses suggest the effects are more pronounced among children raised in farm households, females, and those with lower maternal education. We also provide suggestive evidence that reductions in adulthood income are a likely mechanism channel.
    JEL: I12 I15 J0
    Date: 2022–10
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:30531&r=
  25. By: Habtamu Ali Beshir (Department of Economics, University of Bath, Claverton Down, Bath, BA2 7AY, UK); Jean-François Maystadt (UNIVERSITE CATHOLIQUE DE LOUVAIN, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES))
    Abstract: The effect of economic shocks on human capital is theoretically ambiguous due to opposing income and substitution effects. Using child level information on schooling, child labour, and cognitive development, we investigate the effect of cocoa price fluctuations on human capital production in Ghana. We demonstrate that the timing of the price shock matters. For school-aged children, the substitution effect dominates: a price boom decreases schooling and increases child labour. An increase of one standard deviation in the current-year real producer price of cocoa significantly decreases current school attendance by 8 percentage points and the likelihood of being in the correct grade in the following year by 6.3 percentage points. For pre-school-aged children, however, the income effect dominates: early life and in utero booms in the real producer price of cocoa significantly increase Raven/IQ scores and grade attainment.
    Keywords: Ghana; Cocoa Price Shocks, Child Labour; Schooling; Cognitive Development; Human Capital
    JEL: I25 J1 O12
    Date: 2022–09–26
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ctl:louvir:2022020&r=
  26. By: Mavromaras, Kostas (University of Adelaide); Isherwood, Linda (University of Adelaide); Mahuteau, Stephane (University of Adelaide); Ratcliffe, Julie (Flinders University); Xiao, Lily (Flinders University); Harrington, Ann (Flinders University); Wei, Zhang (University of Adelaide)
    Abstract: Using a Discrete Choice Experiment we estimate the relative value attached by workers on core job attributes identified by previous qualitative research on the Aged Care workforce in Australia: salary (hourly); work hours; training/skill development; staffing numbers; processes for managing work-related stress; and freedom in the job. In this mostly part- time employed workforce, the opportunity for more workhours is welcome, but relatively less important. Nurses (enrolled and more so registered, being typically better-paid and higher-qualified) value pay rises less and training opportunities more than their (typically lower-paid and lower-qualified) care worker counterparts. Casual/temporary workers prefer workplaces that are adequately staffed relatively more than their permanently employed counterparts. In the context of increasing demand for more and for better-quality Aged Care services, the paper's overall findings can inform the current multi-faceted debate about a sustainable way for the Aged Care sector to attract, retain and utilize its workforce.
    Keywords: aged care workforce, discrete choice experiments, job attributes, job preferences
    JEL: J14 J21 J39 C25 I19
    Date: 2022–10
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp15623&r=
  27. By: Joshua Angrist (Massachusetts Institute of Technology); Michal Kolesár (Princeton University)
    Abstract: We revisit the finite-sample behavior of just-identified instrumental variables (IV) estimators, arguing that in most microeconometric applications, just-identified IV bias is negligible and the usual inference strategies likely reliable. Three widely-cited applications are used to explain why this is so. We then consider pretesting strategies of the form t1 > c, where t1 is the first-stage t-statistic, and the first-stage sign is given. Although pervasive in empirical practice, pretesting on the first-stage F-statistic exacerbates bias and distorts inference. We show, however, that median bias is both minimized and roughly halved by setting c = 0, that is by screening on the sign of the estimated first stage. This bias reduction is a free lunch: conventional confidence interval coverage is unchanged by screening on the estimated first-stage sign. To the extent that IV analysts sign-screen already, these results strengthen the case for a sanguine view of the finite-sample behavior of just-ID IV.
    Keywords: Instrumental Variables, Just-Identified Instrumental Variables
    JEL: C21 C26 C31 C36 J08
    Date: 2022–08
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pri:econom:2022-17&r=
  28. By: Bandiera, Oriana (London School of Economics); Elsayed, Ahmed (American University in Cairo); Heil, Anton (London School of Economics); Smurra, Andrea (University College London)
    Abstract: The Jobs of the World Project is a public resource designed to enable research on jobs and poverty across and within countries over the entire development spectrum. At its core is a new data set assembled by harmonising Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) and National Censuses (IPUMS) for all countries and all years after 1990 where data is available. The current version covers 115 countries, observed 4 times on average. We use the data to show how the nature of jobs and their allocation vary within countries by wealth and gender and across countries by stages of development. We discuss evidence that shows how disparities at the micro level lead to a misuse of human potential that links individual poverty to national income.
    Keywords: economic development, jobs, poverty, jobs of the world project
    JEL: O11 O12 J01 J20
    Date: 2022–10
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp15637&r=
  29. By: Robert Stehrer (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Maryna Tverdostup (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw)
    Abstract: Europe will be challenged by demographic changes over the next few decades, even under favourable assumptions about fertility and migration, but the economic effects are not yet fully understood. This paper studies the effects of population ageing on economic growth, capital deepening and robotisation in 27 European Union (EU) labour markets. First, we econometrically assess the effects of ageing and potential labour market shortages on growth. Second, we test the hypothesis of whether ageing leads to faster adoption of new technologies. We distinguish between various capital asset types, including non-ICT and ICT capital, tangible and intangible capital and the adoption of robots. The analysis is based on Eurostat, the European Labour Force Survey (EU-LFS) and International Federation of Robotics (IFR) data. Results indicate that ageing and demographic changes might contribute to secular stagnation, which decelerates the adoption of new technologies.
    Keywords: aging, growth, capital accumulation, new technologies, secular stagnation
    JEL: J11 O33
    Date: 2022–10
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wii:wpaper:222&r=

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