nep-lab New Economics Papers
on Labour Economics
Issue of 2022‒08‒15
23 papers chosen by
Joseph Marchand
University of Alberta

  1. More caseworkers shorten unemployment durations and save costs By René Böheim; Rainer Eppel; Helmut Mahringer
  2. Perceived Returns to Job Search By Adams-Prassl, A.; Boneva, T.; Golin, M; Rauh, C.
  3. u* = √uv By Pascal Michaillat; Emmanuel Saez
  4. Off to a Bad Start: Youth Nonemployment and Labor Market Outcomes Later in Life By Filomena, Mattia; Giorgetti, Isabella; Picchio, Matteo
  5. The impact of labour market deregulation reforms on fertility in Europe By Elena Bastianelli; Raffaele Guetto; Daniele Vignoli
  6. The Determinants of Displaced Workers’ Wages: Sorting, Matching, Selection, and the Hartz Reforms By Simon Woodcock
  7. Improving economic opportunities for all in Belgium By Nicolas Gonne
  8. Identifying Risk-based Selection in Social Insurance: New Approaches and Findings By Mette Ejrnæs; Stefan Hochguertel
  9. Robotization, Internal Migration and Rural Depopulation in Austria By Karim Bekhtiar
  10. Persecution and Migrant Self-Selection: Evidence from the Collapse of the Communist Bloc By Ran Abramitzky; Travis Baseler; Isabelle Sin
  11. STEM Summer Programs for Underrepresented Youth Increase STEM Degrees By Sarah R. Cohodes; Helen Ho; Silvia C. Robles
  12. Women's Careers and Family Formation By Bhalotra, Sonia; Clarke, Damian; Walther, Selma
  13. Does Your Doctor Matter? Doctor Quality and Patient Outcomes By Rita Ginja; Julie Riise; Barton Willage; Alexander Willén
  14. Inequalities in Job Loss and Income Loss in Sub-Saharan Africa during the COVID-19 Crisis By Contreras-Gonzalez, Ivette; Oseni, Gbemisola; Palacios-Lopez, Amparo; Pieters, Janneke; Weber, Michael
  15. Second-generation immigrants and native attitudes toward immigrants in Europe By Oscar Barrera; Isabelle Bensidoun; Anthony Edo
  16. Shareholder Power and the Decline of Labor By Antonio Falato; Hyunseob Kim; Till M. von Wachter
  17. Will the Remote Work Revolution Undermine Progressive State Income Taxes? By David R. Agrawal; Kirk J. Stark
  18. Age and Gender Differentials in Unemployment and Hysteresis By Amy Y. Guisinger; Laura E. Jackson; Michael T. Owyang
  19. Why gender disparities persist in South Korea's labor market By Karen Dynan; Jacob Funk Kirkegaard; Anna Stansbury
  20. Demographic Transition, Industrial Policies and Chinese Economic Growth By Michael Dotsey; Wenli Li; Fang Yang
  21. The Matching Multiplier and the Amplification of Recessions By Christina Patterson
  22. Going Green: Estimating the Potential of Green Jobs in Argentina By Natalia Porto; Pablo; Manuela Cerimelo
  23. The Optimal Design of Assisted Reproductive Technologies Policies By Marie-Louise Leroux; Pierre Pestieau; Gregory Ponthiere

  1. By: René Böheim; Rainer Eppel (WIFO); Helmut Mahringer (WIFO)
    Abstract: In a randomized controlled trial in Austria, lower caseloads in public employment offices led to more meetings of the unemployed with their caseworkers, more job offers, more program assignments, and more sanctions for noncompliance with job search requirements. More intensive counseling led to shorter unemployment episodes due to faster job entry, but also to more exits from the labor force in the two years following treatment. We find effects for different subgroups of unemployed. We find no effects on wages. A cost-benefit analysis suggests that lower caseloads not only shorten the duration of unemployment but are also cost-effective.
    Keywords: Active labor market policy; Public Employment Services; caseworkers; counseling; job placement; field experiment
    JEL: J64 J68
    Date: 2022–06
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:jku:econwp:2022-08&r=
  2. By: Adams-Prassl, A.; Boneva, T.; Golin, M; Rauh, C.
    Abstract: In this paper we provide the first evidence on workers’ perceptions of the returns to job search effort. The perceived job finding probability is nearly linear in hours searched and only slightly concave for most respondents. While workers are overoptimistic about the probability of receiving a job offer conditional on any search, they perceive the marginal return to additional search hours as positive but comparably low. Job seekers receiving an offer update their perceived returns upwards, while others’ beliefs regress towards the direction of the mean. We find little evidence that the novel aspects of the pandemic recession have fundamentally changed workers’ motivations for job search: that an existing job is expected to end or has unsatisfactory pay are the primary motives for on-the-job search. On the contrary, workers’ ability to do their tasks from home is not a strong predictor of job search nor a significant motive for switching occupations.
    Keywords: Job search, Perceived returns, Working from home, Covid-19, Subjective beliefs, Reservation wage
    JEL: J62 J64
    Date: 2022–05–11
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cam:camjip:2211&r=
  3. By: Pascal Michaillat; Emmanuel Saez
    Abstract: Most governments are mandated to maintain their economies at full employment. We propose that the best marker of full employment is the efficient unemployment rate, u*. We define u* as the unemployment rate that minimizes the nonproductive use of labor—both jobseeking and recruiting. The nonproductive use of labor is well measured by the number of jobseekers and vacancies, u + v. Through the Beveridge curve, the number of vacancies is inversely related to the number of jobseekers. With such symmetry, the labor market is efficient when there are as many jobseekers as vacancies (u = v), too tight when there are more vacancies than jobseekers (v > u), and too slack when there are more jobseekers than vacancies (u > v). Accordingly, the efficient unemployment rate is the geometric average of the unemployment and vacancy rates: u* = √uv. We compute u* for the United States between 1930 and 2022. We find for instance that the US labor market has been over full employment (u
    JEL: E24 E32 E52 E61 J63 J64
    Date: 2022–07
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:30211&r=
  4. By: Filomena, Mattia (Marche Polytechnic University); Giorgetti, Isabella (Marche Polytechnic University); Picchio, Matteo (Università Politecnica delle Marche, Ancona)
    Abstract: We estimate the effect of nonemployment experienced by Italian youth after leaving secondary school on subsequent labor market outcomes. We focus on the impact on earnings and labor market participation both in the short- and in the long-term, up to 25 years since school completion. By estimating a factor analytic model which controls for time-varying unobserved heterogeneity, we find that the negative effect of nonemployment on earnings is especially persistent, being sizeable and statistically significant up to 25 years after school completion, for both men and women. Penalties in terms of participation last instead shorter; they disappear by the 10th year after school completion. Hence, early nonemployment operates by persistently locking the youth who get off to a bad start into low-wage jobs.
    Keywords: youth nonemployment, scarring effects, earnings, labor market participation, factor analytic model
    JEL: J01 J08 J31 J64
    Date: 2022–06
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp15366&r=
  5. By: Elena Bastianelli (Dipartimento di Statistica, Informatica, Applicazioni "G. Parenti", Università di Firenze); Raffaele Guetto (Dipartimento di Statistica, Informatica, Applicazioni "G. Parenti", Università di Firenze); Daniele Vignoli (Dipartimento di Statistica, Informatica, Applicazioni "G. Parenti", Università di Firenze)
    Abstract: It is theoretically ambiguous whether a more loosely regulated labour market should inhibit or foster fertility in a society. Micro-level studies on the effects of employment instability on family formation have primarily focused on single episodes of unemployment or temporary employment, by means of event history analyses modelling the instantaneous effects of labour market transitions. This approach has highlighted the existence of a negative association between employment instability and fertility but makes it difficult to evaluate the overall fertility consequences of the several waves of labour market deregulation reforms implemented in Europe. Furthermore, the few existing studies analysing the relationship between employment protection legislation (EPL) and fertility have found mixed evidence. This paper reconciles the ambivalent conclusions of previous studies by analysing the impact of labour market (de)regulation reforms on total fertility across 19 European countries between 1990 and 2019. We operationalize the country-specific regulatory strictness of regular and temporary contracts over time through the OECD EPL indexes. Our results indicate that an increase in employment protection for regular workers positively affects total fertility. However, an increasing gap between the regulation of regular and temporary employment – that is, labour market segmentation – negatively impacts total fertility. These effects are relatively homogeneous across age groups and geographical areas and are especially pronounced among the lower-educated. We conclude that labour market segmentation, rather than a rigid EPL per se, depresses fertility.
    Keywords: Labour market deregulation; Employment protection legislation (EPL); Total fertility rate (TFR); Europe; Regression analysis; Fixed-effect estimator
    JEL: J13 J21 J41 J64 J48
    Date: 2022–07
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fir:econom:wp2022_04&r=
  6. By: Simon Woodcock (Simon Fraser University)
    Abstract: We present a simple new method to decompose the wage effects of displacement into components due to differences in the way that displaced and non-displaced workers are sorted across higher- and lower-paying employers (a sorting effect), differences in the quality of worker-employer matches they enter into (a matching effect), and differences in their unobservable characteristics (a selection effect). In an extended application, we apply our decomposition to understand how the determinants of displaced workers’ wages in Germany changed following the 2003-2005 Hartz reforms. We find that the wages of displaced workers fell substantially after the reforms, and that over 80 percent of the decline was because they found re-employment at lower-paying employers. Sorting into worse matches explains a smaller 5-9 percent of the wage decline experienced by men, and 12-23.5 percent of the female wage decline. Collectively, the sorting and matching channels explain almost all of the post-reform decline in displaced workers’ wages, and selection played little role.
    Date: 2022–05
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sfu:sfudps:dp22-04&r=
  7. By: Nicolas Gonne
    Abstract: Income inequality is low in Belgium, and intergenerational income mobility is on par with the average OECD economy. However, as in other OECD countries, there is scope to improve equal access to opportunities across the population. Poverty risks are high for the unemployed and the low-skilled. Vulnerable socio-demographics, in particular the low educated, single mothers and people with a migrant background and with disabilities have persistently low incomes. Moreover, low-income households are overburdened by housing costs. To foster upward income mobility, employment should be increased among vulnerable groups by enhancing skills through life-long learning, effective career guidance and continuing to strengthen work incentives. To prevent the transmission of disadvantages across generations, social segregation in compulsory education should be addressed, in particular through better-designed school choice policies, higher mobility between general and vocational tracks, and stronger incentives and training for teachers. Promoting quality and affordable housing is also necessary to reduce spatial segregation and mitigate barriers to opportunity.
    Keywords: affordable housing, Belgium, equality of opportunity, inequality in education, labour market transitions, social mobility, vulnerable demographics
    JEL: D63 H31 H50 H75 I24 J60 R31
    Date: 2022–07–18
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:ecoaaa:1722-en&r=
  8. By: Mette Ejrnæs (University of Copenhagen); Stefan Hochguertel (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam)
    Abstract: We study risk-based selection into a voluntary unemployment insurance (UI) scheme. To disentangle behavioral effects from selection, we exploit variation in the sign-up induced by an early retirement scheme embedded into the UI system. We combine an event study with a difference-in-difference approach applied to Danish register data to quantify the selection. We find that individuals who sign up for UI are negatively selected in terms of subsequent unemployment. However, we find important heterogeneity across education and gender. In addition, life cycle events (such as buying a first home) point to effects consistent with dynamic selection on moral hazard.
    Keywords: Unemployment, insurance, selection
    JEL: J64 D82 J65
    Date: 2022–05–19
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tin:wpaper:20220040&r=
  9. By: Karim Bekhtiar (Institut für Höhere Studien (IHS) Wien)
    Abstract: Internal migration flows from rural to urban areas have greatly contributed to population declines in many rural areas across both Europe and the US. At the same time there is mounting evidence for a tight connection between internal migration and shifts in labor demand, with the latter being heavily affected by the rise of automation technologies. Therefore this paper analyzes the effects industrial robotization has had on manufacturing employment and internal migration in Austria during the period 2003-2016, specifically focusing on rural-to-urban migration flows. The results show that robotization has caused significant declines in manufacturing employment to which populations reacted by increased out-migration. This migratory response takes the form of rural-to-urban migration, thereby contributing to population declines in many rural areas in Austria. These rural-to-urban movements are primarily driven by young and medium/low skilled individuals, i.e. those groups that bear the strongest shock incidence.
    Keywords: Employment, internal migration, robots, rural depopulation
    JEL: J21 J23 J61 R23
    Date: 2022–06
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:jku:econwp:2022-07&r=
  10. By: Ran Abramitzky; Travis Baseler; Isabelle Sin
    Abstract: How does persecution affect who migrates? We analyze migrants’ self-selection out of the USSR and its satellite states before and after the collapse of Communism using census microdata from the three largest destination countries: Germany, Israel, and the United States. We find that migrants arriving before and around the time of the collapse (who were more likely to have moved because of persecution) were more educated and had better labor market outcomes in the destination than those arriving later. This change is not fully explained by the removal of emigration restrictions in the Communist Bloc. Instead, we show that this pattern is consistent with more positive self-selection of migrants who are motivated by persecution. When the highly educated disproportionately forgo migrating to enjoy the amenities of their home country, persecution can induce them to leave.
    JEL: F22 J6 N30 N32 N34
    Date: 2022–07
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:30204&r=
  11. By: Sarah R. Cohodes; Helen Ho; Silvia C. Robles
    Abstract: The federal government and many individual organizations have invested in programs to support diversity in the STEM pipeline, including STEM summer programs for high school students, but there is little rigorous evidence of their efficacy. We fielded a randomized controlled trial to study a suite of such programs targeted to underrepresented high school students at an elite, technical institution. The STEM summer programs differ in their length (one week, six weeks, or six months) and modality (on-site or online). Students offered seats in the STEM summer programs are more likely to enroll in, persist through, and graduate from college, with gains in institutional quality coming from both the host institution and other elite universities. The programs also increase the likelihood that students graduate with a degree in a STEM field, with the most intensive program increasing four-year graduation with a STEM degree attainment by 33 percent. The shift to STEM degrees increases potential earnings by 2 to 6 percent. Program-induced gains in college quality fully account for the gains in graduation, but gains in STEM degree attainment are larger than predicted based on institutional differences.
    JEL: I21 I24 J15 J16
    Date: 2022–07
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:30227&r=
  12. By: Bhalotra, Sonia; Clarke, Damian; Walther, Selma
    Abstract: This paper discusses research on the relationship between fertility and women's labour force participation. It surveys methods used to obtain causal identification, and provides an overview of the evidence of causal effects in both directions. We highlight a few themes that we regard as important in guiding research and in reading the evidence. These include the importance of distinguishing between extensive and intensive margin changes in both variables; consideration not only of women's participation but also of occupational and sectoral choice and of relative earnings; the relevance of studying dynamic effects and of analysing changes across the lifecycle and across successive cohorts; and of recognizing that women's choices over both fertility and labour force participation are subject to multiple constraints. We observe that, while technological innovations in reproductive health technologies have muted the familycareer tradeoff primarily by allowing women to time their fertility, policy has not achieved as much as it might.
    Keywords: fertility,birth spacing,abortion,ART,IVF,contraception,female labour force participation,gender wage gap,job loss,recession
    Date: 2022
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:1120&r=
  13. By: Rita Ginja (University of Bergen); Julie Riise (University of Bergen); Barton Willage (University of Colorado--Denver); Alexander Willén (Norwegian School of Economics, CESifo, and UCLS)
    Abstract: We estimate doctor value-added and provide evidence on the distribution of physician quality in an entire country, combining rich population-wide register data with random assignment of patients to general practitioners (GPs). We show that there is substantial variation in the quality of physicians, as measured by patients’ post-assignment mortality, in the primary care sector. Specifically, a one standard deviation increase in doctor quality is associated with a 12.2-percentage point decline in a patient’s two-year mortality risk. While we find evidence of observable doctor characteristics and practice styles influencing a GP’s value-added, a standard decomposition exercise reveals that most of the quality variation is driven by unobserved differences across doctors. Finally, we show that patients are unable to identify who the high-quality doctors are, and that patient-generated GP ratings are uncorrelated with GP value-added. Using a lower bound of the predicted value of an additional life year in Norway ($35,000), our results demonstrate that replacing the worst performing GPs (bottom 5 percent of the VA distribution) with GPs of average quality generates a social benefit of $27,417 per patient, $9.05 million per GP, or $934 million in total. At the same time, our results show that higher-quality GPs are associated with a lower per-patient cost.
    Keywords: value-added, health behaviors, mortality rate
    JEL: H75 I11 I14 J18
    Date: 2022–06
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hka:wpaper:2022-016&r=
  14. By: Contreras-Gonzalez, Ivette (World Bank); Oseni, Gbemisola (World Bank); Palacios-Lopez, Amparo (World Bank); Pieters, Janneke (Wageningen University); Weber, Michael (World Bank)
    Abstract: We use high frequency phone survey data from Ethiopia, Malawi, Nigeria, and Uganda to analyze the impacts of the COVID-19 crisis on work (including wage employment, self-employment, and farm work) and income, as well as heterogeneity by gender, family composition, education, age, pre-COVID-19 industry of work, and between the rural and urban sector. We link phone survey data collected throughout the pandemic to pre-COVID-19 face-to-face survey data in order to track the employment of respondents who were working before the pandemic and analyze individual level indicators of job loss and re-employment. Finally, we analyze both immediate impacts, during the first few months of the pandemic, as well as longer-run impacts up to February/March 2021. We find that in the early phase of the pandemic, women, young, and urban workers were significantly more likely to lose their job. A year after the onset of the pandemic, these inequalities disappeared while education became the main predictor of joblessness. We find significant rural/urban, age, and education gradients in household level income loss. Households with income from non-farm enterprises were most likely to report income loss, in the short run as well as the longer run.
    Keywords: COVID-19, employment, income, inequality, Africa
    JEL: J20 J10 I31
    Date: 2022–07
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp15406&r=
  15. By: Oscar Barrera; Isabelle Bensidoun; Anthony Edo
    Abstract: This paper investigates the role played by immigrants and their children in shaping native attitudes toward immigrants in the European Union. By exploiting the 2017 Special Eurobarometer on immigrant integration, we show that countries with a relatively high share of immigrants are more likely to believe that immigrants are a burden on the welfare system and worsen crime. In contrast, native opinions on the impact of immigration on culture and the labor market are unrelated to the presence of immigrants. We also find that the effects of second-generation immigrants on pro-immigrant attitudes toward security and fiscal concerns are positive (as opposed to first-generation immigrants). Finally, we find no impact of the immigrant share on the attitudes of natives supporting far-left or left political parties, while it is the most negative among respondents affiliated with far-right parties.
    Keywords: Immigration;Second-generation Immigrants;Attitudes toward Immigrants;Public Opinion
    JEL: J15 F22 P16
    Date: 2022–06
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cii:cepidt:2022-03&r=
  16. By: Antonio Falato; Hyunseob Kim; Till M. von Wachter
    Abstract: Shareholder power in the US grew over recent decades due to a steep rise in concentrated institutional ownership. Using establishment-level data from the US Census Bureau’s Longitudinal Business Database for 1982-2015, this paper examines the impact of increases in concentrated institutional ownership on employment, wages, shareholder returns, and labor productivity. Consistent with theory of the firm based on conflicts of interests between shareholders and stakeholders, we find that establishments of firms that experience an increase in ownership by larger and more concentrated institutional shareholders have lower employment and wages. This result holds in both panel regressions with establishment fixed effects and a difference-in-differences design that exploits large increases in concentrated institutional ownership, and is robust to controls for industry and local shocks. The result is more pronounced in industries where labor is relatively less unionized, in more monopsonistic local labor markets, and for dedicated and activist institutional shareholders. The labor losses are accompanied by higher shareholder returns but no improvements in labor productivity, suggesting that shareholder power mainly reallocates rents away from workers. Our results imply that the rise in concentrated institutional ownership could explain about a quarter of the secular decline in the aggregate labor share.
    JEL: G34 J30 J50
    Date: 2022–07
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:30203&r=
  17. By: David R. Agrawal; Kirk J. Stark
    Abstract: The remote work revolution raises the possibility that a larger segment of the population will be able to sever the geographic linkage between home and work. What are the taxing rights of states as to nonresident remote workers? May a state impose income taxes on nonresident employees only to the extent they are physically working within the state? Does state taxing power extend to all income derived from in-state firms, including wages paid to those who never set foot in the state? Standard sourcing rules attribute wage income to the employee’s physical location. In the presence of remote work, however, rigid adherence to this physical presence rule could intensify the progressivity-limiting dynamics of federalism by reducing the costs to households of exploiting labor income tax differentials across jurisdictions. We document the rise of remote work and the status of state-level income tax progressivity as well as its evolution over time. We consider how alternative legal rules for the sourcing of income can affect telework-induced mobility, but conclude that, regardless of which sourcing regime prevails in coming legal battles, the rise of remote work is likely to limit redistribution via state income taxes. While some sourcing rules may better preserve progressivity in the short term than others, the more fundamental threat to progressive state tax regimes derives from remote work’s long-term erosion of the benefits of urban spatial clustering. To the extent that the nation’s productive cities lose their allure as centers of agglomeration and the wages of high-skilled workers in these cities fall, the ability of their host states to pursue redistributive tax policies will likely be constrained. These deglomeration effects will arise regardless of how state taxing rights are adapted for the remote work era, and therefore may carry with them implications for income tax progressivity at the federal level.
    Keywords: income tax, remote work, sourcing rules, progressivity
    JEL: H20 H70 J60 K30 R50
    Date: 2022
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_9805&r=
  18. By: Amy Y. Guisinger; Laura E. Jackson; Michael T. Owyang
    Abstract: We use a time-varying panel unobserved components model to estimate unemployment gaps disaggregated by age and gender. Recessions before COVID affected men's labor market outcomes more than women's; however, the reverse was true for the COVID recession, with effects amplified for younger workers. The aggregate Phillips curve flattens over time and hysteresis is countercyclical for all groups. We find heterogeneity in both the Phillips curve and hysteresis coefficients, with wages responding more to workers with an outside option (high school- and retirement-age) and larger effects of hysteresis for younger workers.
    Keywords: time varying parameters; natural rate of unemployment; hysteresis
    JEL: C32 E24
    Date: 2022–07–21
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedlwp:94533&r=
  19. By: Karen Dynan (Peterson Institute for International Economics); Jacob Funk Kirkegaard (Peterson Institute for International Economics); Anna Stansbury (Peterson Institute for International Economics)
    Abstract: Although the South Korean economy fared relatively well on the whole during the pandemic, the labor market consequences were uneven, with women experiencing worse outcomes than men. These gender disparities have reinforced and highlighted important longer-term gender-related challenges in the South Korean labor market. Despite an above-average level of female tertiary education, the gender pay gap in South Korea is at the top of the range among OECD countries. The labor force participation rate is 20 percentage points lower for women than for men, a difference that is about one-quarter larger than the average for high-income countries. These disparities--as well as fertility that is the lowest of any advanced economy country in the world--reduce South Korea's future economic prospects and will contribute to fiscal challenges as the population rapidly ages. The analysis in this paper suggests that the combination of low female employment and low fertility in South Korea reflects features of the traditional nature of work that create a particularly stark tradeoff for women between work and family and put pressure on women to choose one or the other. This tradeoff has increased in recent years because the opportunity cost of having a child has risen with the rapid growth in the tertiary education rate of South Korean women. Regressions based on individual-level data from the Korean Labor and Income Panel Study (KLIPS) show that the entire gap in female labor force participation is driven by married women, particularly women with children. Unmarried women with no children are just as likely to be employed as men. A sizable "child earnings penalty" for South Korean women is fully explained by women dropping out of the labor force after the birth of their first child rather than reducing hours or hourly wages. Although South Korea has made strides toward making work more family friendly, there is scope to do better.
    Keywords: Gender labor market disparities, labor force participation, fertility, South Korea
    JEL: J11 J18 J22 J31
    Date: 2022–07
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iie:wpaper:wp22-11&r=
  20. By: Michael Dotsey; Wenli Li; Fang Yang
    Abstract: We build a unified framework to quantitatively examine the demographic transition and industrial policies in contributing to China’s economic growth between 1976 and 2015. We find that the demographic transition and industrial policy changes by themselves account for a large fraction of the rise in household and corporate savings relative to total output and the rise in the country’s per capita output growth. Importantly, their interactions also lead to a sizable fraction of the increases in savings since the late 1980s and reduce growth after 2010. A novel and important factor that drives these dynamics is endogenous human capital accumulation, which depresses household savings between 1985 and 2010 but leads to substantial gains in per capita output growth after 2005.
    Keywords: Aging; Credit policy; Household saving; Output growth; China
    JEL: E21 J11 J13 L52
    Date: 2022–07–15
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:feddwp:94497&r=
  21. By: Christina Patterson
    Abstract: This paper shows that the unequal incidence of recessions in the labor market amplifies aggregate shocks. Using administrative data from the United States, I document a positive covariance between worker marginal propensities to consume (MPCs) and their elasticities of earnings to GDP, which is a key moment for a new class of heterogeneous-agent models. I define the Matching Multiplier as the increase in the multiplier stemming from this matching of high MPC workers to more cyclical jobs. I show that this covariance is large enough to increase the aggregate MPC by 20 percent over an equal exposure benchmark.
    Keywords: Marginal Propensity to Consume, Amplification, Labor Market Inequality
    JEL: E21 J11 J23
    Date: 2022–06
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cen:wpaper:22-20&r=
  22. By: Natalia Porto (CEDLAS-IIE-FCE-UNLP); Pablo (CEDLAS-IIE-FCE-UNLP); Manuela Cerimelo (CEDLAS-IIE-FCE-UNLP)
    Abstract: This paper aims to identify and characterize the potential of green jobs in Argentina, i.e., those that would benefit from a transition to a green economy, using occupational green potential scores calculated in US O*NET data. We apply the greenness scores to Argentine household survey data and estimate that 25% of workers are in green jobs, i.e., have a high green potential. However, when taking into account the informality dimension, we find that 15% of workers and 12% of wage earners are in formal green jobs. We then analyze the relationship between the greenness scores (with emphasis on the nexus with decent work) and various labor and demographic variables at the individual level. We find that for the full sample of workers the green potential is relatively greater for men, the elderly, those with very high qualifications, those in formal positions, and those in specific sectors such as construction, transportation, mining, and industry. These are the groups that are likely to be the most benefited by the greening of the Argentine economy. When we restrict the sample to wage earners, the green potential score is positively associated with informality.
    JEL: E20 Q50 J80
    Date: 2022–08
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dls:wpaper:0301&r=
  23. By: Marie-Louise Leroux; Pierre Pestieau; Gregory Ponthiere
    Abstract: This paper studies the optimal design of assisted reproductive technologies (ART) policies in an economy where individuals differ in their reproductive capacity (or fecundity) and in their wage. We find that the optimal ART policy varies with the postulated social welfare criterion. Utilitarianism redistributes only between individuals with unequal fecundity and wages but not between parents and childless individuals. To the opposite, ex post egalitarianism (which gives absolute priority to the worst-off in realized terms) redistributes from individuals with children toward those without children, and from individuals with high fecundity toward those with low fecundity, so as to compensate for both the monetary cost of ART and for the disutility from involuntary childlessness resulting from unsuccessful ART investments. Under asymmetric information and in order to solve for the incentive problem, utilitarianism recommends also to either tax or subsidize ART investments of low-fecundity-low-productivity individuals depending on the degree of complementarity between fecundity and ART in the fertility technology. On the opposite, ex post egalitarianism always recommends marginal taxation.
    Keywords: fertility, assisted reproductive technologies, non-linear taxation, utilitarianism, ex-post egalitarianism
    JEL: H31 H51 I14 I18 J13
    Date: 2022
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_9803&r=

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