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on Labour Economics |
| By: | Albanese, Andrea (LISER); Nieto, Adrián (University of Nottingham); Tatsiramos, Konstantinos (University of Luxembourg, LISER) |
| Abstract: | We study the effect of childbirth on local and non-local employment dynamics for both men and women using Belgian social security and geo-location data. Applying an event-study design that accounts for treatment effect heterogeneity, we show that 75 percent of the effect of the birth of a first child on the overall gender gap in employment is accounted for by gender disparities in non-local employment, with mothers being more likely to give up non-local employment compared to fathers. This gender specialisation is mostly driven by opposing job location responses of men and women to individual, household and regional factors. On the one hand, men do not give up non-local employment after childbirth when they are employed in a high-paid job, have a partner who is not participating in the labour market or experience adverse local labour market conditions, suggesting that fathers trade off better employment opportunities with longer commutes. On the other hand, women give up non-local jobs regardless of their earnings level, their partner's labour market status and local economic conditions, which is consistent with mothers specialising in childcare provision compared to fathers. |
| Keywords: | gender gap, childbirth, job location, cross-border employment, specialisation |
| JEL: | J13 J16 J61 C21 C23 J22 R23 |
| Date: | 2022–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp15353&r= |
| By: | Osea Giuntella; Lorenzo Rotunno; Luca Stella |
| Abstract: | Using longitudinal data from the German Socio-Economic Panel, we analyze the effects of exposure to globalization on the fertility and marital behavior in Germany, until recently a lowest-low fertility setting. We find that exposure to greater import competition from Eastern Europe led to worse labor market outcomes and lower fertility rates. In contrast, workers in industries that benefited from increased exports had better employment prospects and higher fertility. These effects are driven by low-educated, married men, and full-time workers and reflect changes in the likelihood of having any child (extensive margin). While there is evidence of some fertility postponement, we find significant effects on completed fertility. There is instead little evidence of any significant impact on marital behavior. |
| JEL: | F1 F16 J1 J13 |
| Date: | 2022–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:30119&r= |
| By: | Antoine Bertheau; Edoardo Acabbi; Cristina Barceló; Andreas Gulyas; Stefano Lombardi; Raffaele Saggio |
| Abstract: | We document the consequences of losing a job across countries using a harmonized research design applied to seven matched employer-employee datasets. Workers in Denmark and Sweden experience the lowest earnings declines following job displacement, while workers in Italy, Spain, and Portugal experience losses three times as high. French and Austrian workers face earnings losses somewhere in between. Key to these differences is that Southern European workers are less likely to find employment following displacement. Loss of employer-specific wage premiums explains a substantial portion of wage losses in all countries. |
| Date: | 2022–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bon:boncrc:crctr224_2022_351&r= |
| By: | René Böheim (WIFO); Rainer Eppel (WIFO); Helmut Mahringer (WIFO) |
| Abstract: | In a randomised controlled trial in Austria, lower caseloads in public employment offices led to more meetings of the unemployed with their caseworkers, more job offers, more program assignments, and more sanctions for noncompliance with job search requirements. More intensive counselling led to shorter unemployment episodes due to faster job entry, but also to more exits from the labour force in the two years following treatment. We find effects for different subgroups of unemployed. We find no effects on wages. A cost-benefit analysis suggests that lower caseloads not only shorten the duration of unemployment but are also cost-effective. |
| Keywords: | Active Labour Market Policy, Public Employment Services, Caseworkers, Counseling, Job Placement, Field Experiment |
| Date: | 2022–06–22 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wfo:wpaper:y:2022:i:647&r= |
| By: | Giammarco Alderotti (Dipartimento di Statistica, Informatica, Applicazioni "G. Parenti", Università di Firenze); Raffaele Guetto (Dipartimento di Statistica, Informatica, Applicazioni "G. Parenti", Università di Firenze); Paolo Barbieri (Università di Trento); Stefani Scherer (Università di Trento); Daniele Vignoli (Dipartimento di Statistica, Informatica, Applicazioni "G. Parenti", Università di Firenze) |
| Abstract: | Labour market instability comes with consequences for fertility decisions. Especially in the southern European context insecure employment situations hamper the transition to parenthood. Most research so far has focused on first childbirth, ignoring potential ‘catching up’ effects and thus the more encompassing view on cohort fertility. This paper extends on this point analysing the consequences of employment insecurities on completed fertility for men and women in Italy. In a cohort perspective, we look at fertility outcomes at age 41 or more among those who experienced labour market deregulation (cohorts born 1966-1975) in comparison with the previous cohort (born 1951-1965), and relate the fertility outcome to the instability of their employment histories. Based on data from a large-scale, nationally representative retrospective survey administrated by the National Statistical Office, we find that fragmented employment careers and atypical employment periods come with lower likelihood to ever become a parent and lower number of children than continuous, stable careers. This paper suggests – for the first time – that the consequences of rising labour market instability for fertility is not only a timing but also a quantum issue, at least for Italy. This is true especially for men and for the younger cohorts. |
| JEL: | J13 J41 J64 |
| Date: | 2022–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fir:econom:wp2022_03&r= |
| By: | Mark Gertler; Christopher K. Huckfeldt; Antonella Trigari |
| Abstract: | We revisit the role of temporary layoffs in the business cycle, motivated by their unprecedented surge during the pandemic recession. We first measure the contribution of temporary layoffs to unemployment dynamics over the period 1979 to the present. While many have emphasized a stabilizing effect due to recall hiring, we quantify an important destabilizing effect due to “loss-of-recall”, whereby workers in temporary-layoff unemployment lose their job permanently and do so at higher rates in recessions. We then develop a quantitative model that allows for endogenous flows of workers across employment and both temporary-layoff and jobless unemployment. The model captures well pre-pandemic unemployment dynamics and shows how loss-of-recall enhances the recessionary contribution of temporary layoffs. We also show that with some modification the model can capture the pandemic recession. We then use our structural model to show that the Paycheck Protection Program generated significant employment gains. It did so in part by significantly reducing loss-of-recall. |
| JEL: | E0 E24 |
| Date: | 2022–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:30134&r= |
| By: | Feir, Donn. L. (University of Victoria); Foley, Kelly (University of Saskatchewan); Jones, Maggie E. C. (University of Victoria) |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the impact of active labour market programs for institutionally distinct Indigenous populations in Canada using administrative data on the universe of participants in the Aboriginal Skills and Employment Training Strategy (ASETS). Within Indigenous population groups, we compare labour market outcomes among individuals who participated in high-relative to low-intensity programs, where highintensity programs were longer in duration. For Métis and non-Status First Nations groups, we find a large impact of high-intensity participation on earnings two years post-ASETS. The post-program earnings of Status First Nations individuals who participated in high-intensity programs were not statistically different from those in lowintensity programs. We argue that these differences are due to the unique institutional environments affecting different Indigenous populations. |
| Keywords: | active labour market programs, Indigenous peoples, labour market institutions, on-reserve employment, program evaluation, administrative data |
| JEL: | J15 I38 M53 |
| Date: | 2022–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp15358&r= |
| By: | Lindsey Macmillan (UCL Centre for Education Policy & Equalising Opportunities); Abigail McKnight (Centre for Analysis of Social Exclusion, LSE) |
| Abstract: | This paper presents new estimates of recent social mobility in the UK by gender, education and ethnicity, and their intersections. We measure absolute social class mobility using data from the Labour Force Survey 2014-2018. Overall, little change in social mobility occurred over this short period but sub-group analysis using a pooled sample reveals some important new findings. Education is associated with greater chances for upward mobility and lower risk of downward mobility, particularly for men. There are also stark ethnic differences in social mobility prospects in the UK. |
| Keywords: | intergenerational mobility; gender; ethnicity; education |
| JEL: | I24 |
| Date: | 2022–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ucl:cepeow:22-07&r= |
| By: | Braschke, Franziska (Leibniz University of Hannover); Puhani, Patrick A. (Leibniz University of Hannover) |
| Abstract: | This paper uses Indian EUS-NSSO data on 32 states/union territories and 570 districts for a bi-annual panel with 5 waves to estimate how regional population reacts to asymmetric shocks. These shocks are measured by non-employment rates, unemployment rates, and wages in fixed-effects regressions which effectively use changes in these indicators over time within regions as identifying information. Because we include region and time effects, we interpret regression-adjusted population changes as proxies for regional migration. Comparing the results with those for the United States and the European Union, the most striking difference is that, in India, we do not find any significant reactions to asymmetric non-employment shocks at the state level, only at the district level, whereas the estimates are statistically significant and of similar size for the state/NUTS-1 and district level in both the United States and Europe. We find that Indian workers react to asymmetric regional shocks by adjusting up to a third of a regional non-employment shock through migration within two years. This is somewhat higher than the response to non-employment shocks in the United States and the European Union but somewhat lower than the response to unemployment shocks in these economies. In India, the unemployment rate does not seem to be a reliable measure of regional shocks, at least we find no significant effects for it. However, we find a significant population response to regional wage differentials in India at both the state and district level. |
| Keywords: | non-employment, regional convergence, population, migration, unemployment, wages |
| JEL: | J61 |
| Date: | 2022–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp15355&r= |
| By: | Jonathan Borowsky; Jessica H. Brown; Elizabeth E. Davis; Chloe Gibbs; Chris M. Herbst; Aaron Sojourner; Erdal Tekin; Matthew J. Wiswall |
| Abstract: | Recent policy proposals call for significant new investments in early care and education (ECE). These policies are designed to reduce the burden of child care costs, support parental employment, and foster child development by increasing access to high-quality care, especially for children in lower-income families. In this paper, we propose and calibrate a model of supply and demand for different ECE service and teacher types to estimate equilibrium family expenditures, participation in ECE, maternal labor supply, teacher wages, market ECE prices, and program costs under different policy regimes. Under a policy of broadly expanded subsidies that limits family payments for ECE to no more than 7% of income among those up to 250% of national median income, we estimate that mothers’ employment would increase by six percentage points while full-time employment would increase by nearly 10 percentage points, with substantially larger increases among lower-income families. The policy would also induce a shift from informal care and parent-only care to center- and home-based providers, which are higher-quality on average, with larger shifts for lower-income families. Despite the increased use of formal care, family expenditures on ECE services would decrease throughout most of the income distribution. For example, families in the bottom three income quintiles would experience expenditure reductions of 76%, 68%, and 55%, respectively. Finally, teacher wages and market prices would increase to attract workers with higher levels of education. We also estimate the impact of a narrower subsidy expansion for families with an income up to 85% of national median income. |
| JEL: | I28 J13 |
| Date: | 2022–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:30140&r= |
| By: | Ekaterina S. Jardim; Mark C. Long; Robert Plotnick; Emma van Inwegen; Jacob L. Vigdor; Hilary Wething |
| Abstract: | The boundary discontinuity method of causal inference may yield misleading results if a policy’s impacts do not stop at the border of the implementing jurisdiction. We use geographically precise longitudinal employment data documenting worker job-to-job mobility to study policy spillovers in the context of three local minimum wage increases. Estimated spillover impacts on wages and hours are statistically significant, geographically diffuse, and sufficient to create concern regarding interpretation of results even using not-immediately-adjacent regions as controls. Spillover effects appear less concerning with smaller interventions or those or adopted in a smaller jurisdiction. |
| JEL: | J31 J61 R12 |
| Date: | 2022–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:30075&r= |
| By: | Duan, Yige (University of British Columbia); Jost, Oskar (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany); Jost, Ramona (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany) |
| Abstract: | "We study the long-term impact of job displacement on workers’ commuting behavior. Our measures of commuting exploit geo-coordinates of workers’ places of residence and places of work, from which we calculate the door-to-door commuting distance and commuting time. Using German employee-employer matched data and an event study design, we identify the causal effect of job loss on workers displaced during a mass layoff. Conditional on finding a new job, workers’ commuting distance and commuting time rise sharply after displacement and gradually decline in subsequent years. The recovery is due to employer changes rather than migration, and a larger increase in commuting would mitigate the wage loss due to job displacement. To rationalize our findings, we build an on-the-job search model with heterogeneous firm productivity and commuting distances. Our model predicts a joint recovery of wages and commuting despite a static tradeoff between the two attributes." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en)) |
| Keywords: | IAB-Open-Access-Publikation |
| JEL: | J30 J60 R23 R40 |
| Date: | 2022–06–15 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iab:iabdpa:202215&r= |
| By: | Kagerl, Christian (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany ; FAU); Schierholz, Malte (LMU); Fitzenberger, Bernd (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany ; FAU ; IFS ; CESifo ; IZA ; ROA) |
| Abstract: | "Short-time work (STW) in Germany allows for a lot of flexibility in actual usage. Ex ante, firms notify the Federal Employment Agency about the total number of employees eligible, and, up to the total granted, firms can flexibly choose how many employees actually use STW. In firm-level surveys, which provide timely information on STW in Germany, over-reporting of the number of employees on STW is prevalent. This study explores reasons for STW over-reporting based on a high-frequency and low-cost survey initiated during the Covid19 pandemic (BeCovid) and a low-frequency and high-cost long-running survey (BP). Merging administrative records on actual use of STW, firms that use STW prove more likely to participate in the BeCovid survey. Multiestablishment firms overreport STW because they tend to report STW for all subfirms. The BP uses more interview time and confirms the over-reporting of STW use in the survey month, while – crucially – the over-reporting drops sharply with a few months of retrospection." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en)) |
| Keywords: | IAB-Datensatz BeCovid ; IAB-Open-Access-Publikation ; IAB-Betriebspanel |
| JEL: | J63 J65 C83 |
| Date: | 2022–05–27 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iab:iabdpa:202212&r= |
| By: | Jaanika Merikyll; Alari Paulus |
| Abstract: | Economic recessions can boost the productivity-enhancing reallocation of jobs, yet the Covid-19 crisis has provided limited and mixed evidence of that. The paper studies the link between productivity and reallocation and investigates the role of job retention schemes in it, using a rich administrative dataset for Estonia that covers the whole population of firms from 2004 to 2020. We find persistent evidence for the reallocation of jobs towards more productive sectors and firms. However, the within-sector reallocation was surprisingly unresponsive to productivity in the Covid-19 crisis, in sharp contrast to the experience in the previous major crisis, the Great Recession. We show that a generous job retention scheme supressed the acceleration of within-industry reallocation towards more productive firms, which had negative consequences for aggregate productivity during Covid-19. These estimates appear sufficiently large to imply that there are negative overall welfare effects that offset the positive employment effect. |
| Keywords: | job reallocation, productivity, Covid-19, cleansing effect, firm exit and entry, job retention scheme |
| JEL: | J62 D24 J68 D61 |
| Date: | 2022–06–29 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eea:boewps:wp2022-5&r= |
| By: | W. Scott Frame; Ruidi Huang; Erik J. Mayer; Adi Sunderam |
| Abstract: | We study links between the labor market for loan officers and access to mortgage credit. Using novel data matching the (near) universe of mortgage applications to loan officers, we find that minorities are significantly underrepresented among loan officers. Minority borrowers are less likely to complete mortgage applications, have completed applications approved, and to ultimately take-up a loan. These disparities are significantly reduced when minority borrowers work with minority loan officers. Minority borrowers working with minority loan officers also have lower default rates. Our results suggest that minority underrepresentation among loan officers has adverse effects on minority borrowers’ access to credit. |
| JEL: | G21 G51 J15 |
| Date: | 2022–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:30125&r= |
| By: | Ellora Derenoncourt; Chi Hyun Kim; Moritz Kuhn; Moritz Schularick |
| Abstract: | The racial wealth gap is the largest of the economic disparities between Black and white Americans, with a white-to-Black per capita wealth ratio of 6 to 1. It is also among the most persistent. In this paper, we construct the first continuous series on white-to-Black per capita wealth ratios from 1860 to 2020, drawing on historical census data, early state tax records, and historical waves of the Survey of Consumer Finances, among other sources. Incorporating these data into a parsimonious model of wealth accumulation for each racial group, we document the role played by initial conditions, income growth, savings behavior, and capital returns in the evolution of the gap. Given vastly different starting conditions under slavery, racial wealth convergence would remain a distant scenario, even if wealth-accumulating conditions had been equal across the two groups since Emancipation. Relative to this equal-conditions benchmark, we find that observed convergence has followed an even slower path over the last 150 years, with convergence stalling after 1950. Since the 1980s, the wealth gap has widened again as capital gains have predominantly benefited white households, and income convergence has stopped. |
| JEL: | J15 N11 N12 |
| Date: | 2022–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:30101&r= |
| By: | Andrea Salvatori |
| Abstract: | This paper provides new evidence on the effect of the 2012 reform on flows from UB to employment. The reform increased the steepness of the time profile of unemployment benefits by raising the initial benefit, lowering its long-term level and increasing the number of steps in-between. The analysis finds no indication that the 2012 reform of the Belgian UB system led to an increase in flows towards employment or inactivity either in the aggregate or when comparing groups of workers whose benefits were affected to different extents. While the results of this paper and recent literature provide little ground in favour of a further accentuation of the steepness of the time profile of UB in Belgium, the system could likely benefit from a simplification of the rules that would enhance its readability for workers and facilitate its administration and evaluation. |
| Keywords: | Unemployment, Unemployment benefits, Unemployment insurance |
| JEL: | J08 J65 E24 |
| Date: | 2022–06–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:elsaab:272-en&r= |
| By: | Wanger, Susanne (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany) |
| Abstract: | "Even though women have been able to increase their participation in management positions to a small extent in recent years, they are still significantly underrepresented in management positions. Organisational measures to promote gender equality and work-life balance are seen as an option to reduce inequalities between men and women. However, there are relatively few firms that have formalised organisational gender equality policies. Against this background, I examine whether organisational measures may increase women's career opportunities or promote the assumption of management positions on a part-time basis. This is investigated using a German Linked-Employer-Employee dataset (LIAB) from 2012 to 2016 and logistic panel regression models. The results show that the targeted promotion of women in particular improves their chances of promotion. However, this is not the case for mothers and their chances of achieving a part-time management position: these are lower when targeted promotion of women is practised in a firm. Measures to improve reconciliation, such as firm support for childcare or for employees with dependents in need of care, have a positive effect on advancement to management positions. The effect of family-friendly working conditions in a firm is heterogeneous: while women have lower chances of promotion, their chances of obtaining a management position with reduced working hours are higher. In contrast, a firm’s membership in a family-friendly network has a negative effect on the career and promotion opportunities of women." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en)) |
| Keywords: | IAB-Open-Access-Publikation ; IAB-Linked-Employer-Employee-Datensatz |
| JEL: | J16 J71 M12 M51 |
| Date: | 2022–06–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iab:iabdpa:202213&r= |
| By: | Daniele Vignoli (Dipartimento di Statistica, Informatica, Applicazioni "G. Parenti", Università di Firenze); Raffaele Guetto (Dipartimento di Statistica, Informatica, Applicazioni "G. Parenti", Università di Firenze); Daniela Bellani |
| Abstract: | The consequences of the Covid-19 pandemic are not limited solely to health and economics; couples’ relationships are also affected. There is, though, insufficient evidence as to how families are adapting to the new normal and the pandemic’s long-term effects on relationship quality. We use novel population-level data collected in September 2021 in Italy as part of the Familydemic Survey to examine variation and correlates of relationship quality in the advanced stages of the pandemic. Our findings suggest that the pandemic is responsible for huge variations in family life. When children are involved, approximately 45–50% of couples experienced changes in their relationship satisfaction. Couples have attempted to adapt to the new reality, experiencing both gains and losses in relationship quality. For couples with less egalitarian gender attitudes, and for couples in which the pandemic has fostered preexisting domestic gender inequalities, relationship quality declined. For more egalitarian couples, and for couples in which the pandemic has offered the opportunity for a new equilibrium with a more balanced division of unpaid work, relationship quality improved. |
| Keywords: | Gender equality; Relationship quality; Covid-19; Pandemic; Italy; Familydemic survey |
| JEL: | J12 |
| Date: | 2022–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fir:econom:wp2022_01&r= |
| By: | Oliver Bargain |
| Abstract: | Policies aimed at redistributing to the most vulnerable individuals must consider inequality within households as much as between households. In that spirit, many cash transfers in low and middle income countries are targeted at women rather than men. Tax legislations also contain specific gender provisions that treat men and women differently. Whether these policies operate intrahousehold redistribution, or are defeated by the household agency problem, is an open question. This paper provides new insights by adapting models of intra-household allocation to account for women’s and men’s net-of-tax earnings and targeted beneffits as determinants of the allocation function. We suggest applications using household expenditure data for Argentina and South Africa. The net earnings and benefits commanded by the wife are often positively related to her and her children’s resources. We provide counterfactual simulations to illustrate how the wife’s financial power -and its sources- may modify her consumption share and thus her individual poverty status. |
| Keywords: | Collective Model, Engel Curves, Sharing rule, Tax-benefit Policies |
| JEL: | D11 D12 I31 J12 |
| Date: | 2022–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tul:ceqwps:121&r= |
| By: | Bodnár, Katalin; Nerlich, Carolin |
| Abstract: | The euro area, like many other advanced economies, has entered an era of drastic demographic change. Without appropriate policy responses, population ageing in the euro area is posing formidable challenges for potential growth, monetary policy and public finances. This paper examines – from a central bank’s perspective – the macroeconomic and fiscal effects of population ageing in the euro area and looks at the main challenges ahead in the next decades. Total population in the euro area is projected to decline as of around 2035, while the old-age dependency ratio will rise strongly in the coming 15 years, putting additional burden on pension systems. The analysis in the paper finds that the demographic changes in the euro area present a drag on potential growth, mainly through labour supply and productivity growth – similarly to developments in Japan, which is ahead of the euro area in terms of population ageing. Precautionary savings may be higher, and the natural rate of interest lower, while the effect on trend inflation and wages are not obvious. Population ageing is posing a burden on fiscal policy, through upward pressure on pension spending and adversely affecting the tax bases and the structure of public revenues. Thus, it poses significant challenges for fiscal sustainability, limits fiscal policy space and effectiveness. To safeguard against the adverse economic and fiscal consequences of population ageing, there is a need for fiscal buffers, improved quality of public finance and structural reforms. JEL Classification: E24, E52, E62, J11, J21 |
| Keywords: | euro area, fiscal policy, Japan, labour force, population ageing, potential growth |
| Date: | 2022–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbops:2022296&r= |