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on Labour Economics |
| By: | Arntz, Melanie (ZEW Mannheim); Ivanov, Boris (ZEW); Pohlan, Laura (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg) |
| Abstract: | Routine-intensive occupations have been declining in many countries, but how does this affect individual workers’ careers if this decline is particularly severe in their local labor market? This paper uses administrative data from Germany and a matched difference-in-differences approach to show that the individual costs of job loss strongly depend on the task-bias of regional structural change. Workers displaced from routine manual occupations have substantially higher and more persistent employment and wage losses in regions where such occupations decline the most. Regional and occupational mobility partly serve as an adjustment mechanism, but come at high cost as these switches also involve losses in firm wage premia. Non-displaced workers, by contrast, remain largely unaffected by structural change. |
| Keywords: | routine-biased structural change, local labor markets, displacement, mass-layoffs, plant closures, matching, difference-in-differences, event study |
| JEL: | J24 J63 J64 J65 O33 R11 |
| Date: | 2022–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp15313&r= |
| By: | Van Borm, Hannah (Ghent University); Baert, Stijn (Ghent University) |
| Abstract: | We investigate the drivers of gender differentials in hiring chances. More concretely, we test (i) whether recruiters perceive job applicants in gender stereotypical terms when making hiring decisions and (ii) whether the activation of these gender stereotypes in recruiters’ minds varies by the salience of gender in a particular hiring context and the gender prototypicality of a job applicant, as hypothesised in Ridgeway and Kricheli-Katz (2013). To this end, we conduct an innovative vignette experiment in the United States with 290 genuine recruiters who evaluate fictitious job applicants regarding their hireability and 21 statements related to specific gender stereotypes. Moreover, we experimentally manipulate both the gender prototypicality of a job applicant and the salience of gender in the hiring context. We find that employers perceive women in gender stereotypical terms when making hiring decisions. In particular, women are perceived to be more social and supportive than men, but also as less assertive and physically strong. Furthermore, our results indicate that the gender prototypicality of job applicants moderates these perceptions: the less prototypical group of African American women, who are assumed to be less prototypical, are perceived in less stereotypical terms than white women, while some stereotypes are more outspoken when female résumés reveal family responsibilities. |
| Keywords: | hiring, gender discrimination, stereotypes, race, motherhood |
| JEL: | J71 J16 J15 J13 J24 |
| Date: | 2022–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp15261&r= |
| By: | Pesola, Hanna (VATT, Helsinki); Sarvimäki, Matti (Aalto University) |
| Abstract: | This paper shows that an integration policy aimed at unemployed adult immigrants generated positive spillovers for their children. Our research design builds on a discontinuity in the phase-in-rule of Finland’s 1999 reform that introduced integration plans—a new approach for allocating unemployed immigrants to active labor market policies. We find that parents’ integration plans substantially improved their children’s grades and educational attainment and reduced their time out of employment, education, or training. Our examination of potential mechanisms suggests that integration plans increased parents’ earnings, employment and exposure to native colleagues and pushed their children to better schools. |
| Keywords: | immigrants, integration policy, intergenerational effects |
| JEL: | J61 J68 J13 H53 |
| Date: | 2022–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp15310&r= |
| By: | Acabbi, Edoardo (Universidad Carlos III de Madrid,); Barcelo, Cristina (Banco de España); Bertheau, Antoine (University of Copenhagen.); Gulyas, Andreas (University of Mannheim); Lombardi, Stefano (Institute for economic research, VATT); Saggio, Raffaele (University of British Columbia) |
| Abstract: | We document the consequences of losing a job across countries using a harmonized research design applied to seven matched employer-employee datasets. Workers in Denmark and Sweden experience the lowest earnings declines following job displacement, while workers in Italy, Spain, and Portugal experience losses three times as high. French and Austrian workers face earnings losses somewhere in between. Key to these differences is that Southern European workers are less likely to find employment following displacement. Loss of employer specific wage premiums explains a substantial portion of wage losses in all countries. |
| Keywords: | Job loss Effects; Wage dynamics; Labor turnover; Mass Layoffs |
| JEL: | J30 J63 J64 |
| Date: | 2022–05–18 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:ifauwp:2022_010&r= |
| By: | di Porto, Edoardo (University of Naples Federico II); Tealdi, Cristina (Heriot-Watt University, Edinburgh) |
| Abstract: | We investigate how the flexibility of temporary contracts affects the probability of young workers to be upgraded into permanent employment. Theoretically, we explore the workers' career development in response to the change in flexibility within a search and matching model; empirically, we exploit an Italian labour market reform which increased flexibility in a difference in differences framework. We find that new entrants in the labour market who have been affected by the reform experienced a decrease in the conversion rate of approximately 12.5 percentage points in the first months after the reform, and of 5.1 percentage points over a year, compared to unaffected peers. This effect is particularly strong among women and low-educated workers employed in low productive firms in the Center/South of Italy. Worryingly, the lower conversion rate leads to a 25% wage penalty even two years down the workers' career paths. |
| Keywords: | institutional reforms, flexibility, young workers, temporary contracts, employment protection legislation |
| JEL: | J41 J63 J64 |
| Date: | 2022–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp15246&r= |
| By: | Adams-Prassl, A.; Boneva, T.; Golin, M; Rauh, C. |
| Abstract: | In this paper we provide the first evidence on workers’ perceptions of the returns to job search effort. The perceived job finding probability is nearly linear in hours searched and only slightly concave for most respondents. While workers are overoptimistic about the probability of receiving a job offer conditional on any search, they perceive the marginal return to additional search hours as positive but comparably low. Job seekers receiving an offer update their perceived returns upwards, while others’ beliefs regress towards the direction of the mean. We find little evidence that the novel aspects of the pandemic recession have fundamentally changed workers’ motivations for job search: that an existing job is expected to end or has unsatisfactory pay are the primary motives for on-the-job search. On the contrary, workers’ ability to do their tasks from home is not a strong predictor of job search nor a significant motive for switching occupations. |
| Keywords: | Job search, Perceived returns, Working from home, Covid-19, Subjective beliefs, Reservation wage |
| JEL: | J62 J64 |
| Date: | 2022–05–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cam:camdae:2231&r= |
| By: | Frank Neffke (Center for International Development at Harvard University); Ljubica Nedelkoska (Center for International Development at Harvard University); Simon Wiederhold |
| Abstract: | When workers are displaced from their jobs in mass layoffs or firm closures, they experience lasting adverse labor market consequences. We study how these consequences vary with the amount of skill mismatch that workers experience when returning to the labor market. Using novel measures of skill redundancy and skill shortage, we analyze individuals’ work histories in Germany between 1975 and 2010. We estimate difference-in-differences models, using a sample in which we match displaced workers to statistically similar non-displaced workers. We find that displacements increase the probability of occupational change eleven fold, and that the type of skill mismatch after displacement is strongly associated with the magnitude of post-displacement earnings losses. Whereas skill shortages are associated with relatively quick returns to the counterfactual earnings trajectories that displaced workers would have experienced absent displacement, skill redundancy sets displaced workers on paths with permanently lower earnings. |
| Keywords: | job displacement, human capital, skill mismatch, occupational change |
| JEL: | J24 J31 J63 J65 |
| Date: | 2022–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cid:wpfacu:122a&r= |
| By: | Caliendo, Marco (University of Potsdam); Graeber, Daniel (University of Potsdam); Kritikos, Alexander S. (DIW Berlin); Seebauer, Johannes (DIW Berlin) |
| Abstract: | We investigate the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on self-employed people’s mental health. Using representative longitudinal survey data from Germany, we reveal differential effects by gender: whereas self-employed women experienced a substantial deterioration in their mental health, self-employed men displayed no significant changes up to early 2021. Financial losses are important in explaining these differences. In addition, we find larger mental health responses among self-employed women who were directly affected by government-imposed restrictions and bore an increased childcare burden due to school and daycare closures. We also find that self-employed individuals who are more resilient coped better with the crisis. |
| Keywords: | representative longitudinal survey data, gender, mental health, COVID-19, self-employment, PHQ-4 score, resilience |
| JEL: | L26 D31 I14 I18 J16 |
| Date: | 2022–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp15260&r= |
| By: | Brandén, Gunnar (Karolinska Institutet, and Center for Epidemiology and Social medicine (CES)) |
| Abstract: | The Recruitment grant was a student aid policy that replaced the loans in the student aid system with grants for unemployed adults with low education. In this paper, I estimate the causal effects of repealing this policy on the educational attainment and subsequent labor market outcomes for the target population in a difference-in-differences framework. I find that the repeal reduced enrollment in adult education by 10 percent relative to the pre-repeal enrollment rate, and that the number of passed credits decreased by 29 percent. I also find that repeal increased unemployment by an average of 76 days over the eight-year follow-up, and decreased earnings by about 12,000 SEK ($1,300). Although there are substantial differences in these outcomes across subgroups, the repeal had significant adverse effects for the target population as a whole. |
| Keywords: | Student aid; Adult education; Difference-in-differences; Propensity scores |
| JEL: | D31 I24 J62 R00 |
| Date: | 2022–04–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:ifauwp:2022_007&r= |
| By: | Martins-Neto, Antonio (UNU-MERIT, Maastricht University); Cirera, Xavier (World Bank); Coad, Alex (Waseda Business School, Waseda University) |
| Abstract: | We investigate the impact of "routinization" on the labor outcomes of displaced workers. We use a rich Brazilian panel dataset and an occupation-task mapping to examine the effect of job displacement in different groups, classified according to their tasks. Our main result is that following a layoff, workers previously employed in routine-intensive occupations suffer a more significant decline in wages and more extended periods of unemployment. As expected, job displacement has a negative and lasting impact on wages. Still, workers in routine-intensive occupations are more impacted than those in non-routine occupations in terms of wages (an increase of one point in the routineintensity index results in a further decline of 2 percent in workers' relative wages) and employment. Furthermore, our results indicate that workers in routine-intensive occupations are more likely to change occupations after the shock, and those who do not switch occupational fields suffer a more significant decline in wages. Lastly, even though the loss of employer-specific wage premiums explains 13 percent of displaced workers' drop in wages, it does not explain routine-intensive workers' more substantial losses. |
| Keywords: | Technological change, innovation, Routine intensity, Job displacement, Mass layoffs, Occupational mobility, Brazil |
| JEL: | J24 J63 O31 O33 O54 |
| Date: | 2022–04–19 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unm:unumer:2022014&r= |
| By: | Clemens, Michael A. (Center for Global Development) |
| Abstract: | International migrants who seek protection also participate in the economy. Thus the policy of the United States to drastically reduce refugee and asylum-seeker arrivals from 2017 to 2020 might have substantial and ongoing economic consequences. This paper places conservative bounds on those effects by critically reviewing the research literature. It goes beyond prior estimates by including ripple effects beyond the wages earned or taxes paid directly by migrants. The sharp reduction in U.S. refugee admissions starting in 2017 costs the overall U.S. economy today over $9.1 billion per year ($30,962 per missing refugee per year, on average) and costs public coffers at all levels of government over $2.0 billion per year ($6,844 per missing refugee per year, on average) net of public expenses. Large reductions in the presence of asylum seekers during the same period likewise carry ongoing costs in the billions of dollars per year. These estimates imply that barriers to migrants seeking protection, beyond humanitarian policy concerns, carry substantial economic costs. |
| Keywords: | immigration, immigrant, migrant, refugee, asylum, asylee, costs, wages, employment, labor, market, fiscal, public, coffers, welfare, benefits, GDP, growth |
| JEL: | F62 H60 J61 |
| Date: | 2022–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp15317&r= |
| By: | Padilla-Romo, María (University of Tennessee); Peluffo, Cecilia (University of Florida); Viollaz, Mariana (CEDLAS-UNLP) |
| Abstract: | Policies that extend the school day in elementary school provide an implicit childcare subsidy for families. As such, they can affect parents' time allocation and family dynamics. This paper examines how extending the school day affects families by focusing on marriage dissolution. We exploit the staggered adoption of a policy that extended the availability of full-time elementary schools across different municipalities in Mexico. Using administrative data on divorces, we find that the extension in the school day by 3.5 hours leads to a significant increase in divorce rates. Moreover, the effect grows with every year of municipalities' exposure to full-time schooling. Increased female employment due to the availability of childcare is likely to be one of the mechanisms that relaxed restrictions to marriage dissolution. |
| Keywords: | divorce, childcare, full-time schools |
| JEL: | J12 J13 J18 |
| Date: | 2022–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp15304&r= |
| By: | Andre Groeger; Gianmarco León-Ciliotta; Steven Stillman |
| Abstract: | Venezuela is currently experiencing the biggest crisis in its recent history. This has led more than 5.6 million Venezuelans to emigrate, one million of those to Peru, which amounted to an increase of over 2 percent in the Peruvian population. Venezuelan immigrants in Peru are relatively similar in cultural terms, but, on average, more skilled than Peruvians. In this paper, we first examine Venezuelans'perceptions about being discriminated against in Peru. Using an instrumental variable strategy, we document a causal relationship between the level of employment in the informal sector - where most immigrants are employed - and reports of discrimination. We then study the impact of Venezuelan migration on local's labor market outcomes, reported crime rates and attitudes using a variety of data sources. We find that inflows of Venezuelans to particular locations led to increased employment and income among locals, decreased reported crime, and improved reported community quality. We conduct a heterogeneity analysis to identify the mechanisms behind these labor market effects and discuss the implications for Peruvian immigration policy. |
| Keywords: | immigration, forced migration, discrimination, labor markets, Peru, Venezuela |
| JEL: | F22 J15 O15 R23 |
| Date: | 2022–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:upf:upfgen:1840&r= |
| By: | Kevin Boudreau; Nilam Kaushik |
| Abstract: | Prior research, primarily based on lab experiments, suggests that females might be more averse to competition than males and could be more inclined towards collaboration, instead. Were these findings to generalize to adults across the workforce, there could be profound implications for organizational design and personnel management. We report on a field experiment in which 97,678 adults from a wide range of fields and ages were invited to join a product development opportunity. Individuals were randomly assigned to treatments framing the opportunity as either involving competitive or collaborative interactions with other participants. Among those outside of science, technology, engineering, and math fields (STEM), we find significant gender differences in willingness to participate under competition. Among those in STEM fields, we detect no statistical gender differences. These results and broader patterns documented in the study are consistent with significant heterogeneity in competitiveness across both men and women, with field and career sorting resulting in differences (in gender differences) across fields. |
| JEL: | D02 D03 D9 D91 J0 J01 J2 M0 M12 M5 O3 O31 O32 O36 |
| Date: | 2022–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:30062&r= |
| By: | Conzelmann, Johnathan G. (University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill); Hemelt, Steven W. (University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill); Hershbein, Brad J. (Upjohn Institute for Employment Research); Martin, Shawn (University of Michigan); Simon, Andew (University of Michigan); Stange, Kevin (University of Michigan) |
| Abstract: | This paper introduces a new measure of the labor markets served by colleges and universities across the United States. About 50 percent of recent college graduates are living and working in the metro area nearest the institution they attended, with this figure climbing to 67 percent in-state. The geographic dispersion of alumni is more than twice as great for highly selective 4-year institutions as for 2-year institutions. However, more than one-quarter of 2-year institutions disperse alumni more diversely than the average public 4-year institution. In one application of these data, we find that the average strength of the labor market to which a college sends its graduates predicts college-specific intergenerational economic mobility. In a second application, we quantify the extent of "brain drain" across areas and illustrate the importance of considering migration patterns of college graduates when estimating the social return on public investment in higher education. |
| Keywords: | colleges, labor markets, postsecondary education, economic mobility |
| JEL: | I23 I25 J21 J40 J61 |
| Date: | 2022–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp15323&r= |
| By: | Matti Viren (University of Turku, Finland.) |
| Abstract: | In this paper we examine how Finnish municipalitiesâ expenditures depend on the share of citizens with foreign background out of the total population. Empirical analyses make use of Finnish panel data from 295 municipalities and 202 migrant nationalities for the period 1987-2018. It turns out that the share of foreign population tends to increase per capita expenditures up to the point where the respective semi-elasticity is about one. The result seems robust in terms of different control variables, subsamples of the data and estimation techniques. Sizeable differences between different nationalities could, however, be detected. Thus, we cannot assume that the use of public services is neutral in terms of demographic changes and that should be considered when making assessments on overall fiscal effects of migration. |
| Keywords: | government expenditures, migration, local government |
| JEL: | H24 H31 H42 H71 J15 J61 |
| Date: | 2022–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tkk:dpaper:dp151&r= |
| By: | Alexander Bick; Adam Blandin |
| Abstract: | Economists have recently begun using independent online surveys to collect national labor market data. Questions remain over the quality of such data. This paper provides an approach to address these concerns. Our case study is the Real-Time Population Survey (RPS), a novel online survey of the US built around the Current Population Survey (CPS). The RPS replicates core components of the CPS, ensuring comparable measures that allow us to weight and rigorously validate our results using a high-quality benchmark. At the same time, special questions in the RPS yield novel information regarding employer reallocation during the COVID-19 pandemic. We document that 26% of pre-pandemic workers were working for a new employer one year into the COVID-19 outbreak in the US, at least double the rate of any previous episode in the past quarter century. Our discussion contains practical suggestions for the design of novel labor market surveys and highlights other promising applications of our methodology. |
| Keywords: | Online Survey; Employment; Employer Separations; Employer Reallocation |
| JEL: | C81 C83 E24 J21 J63 |
| Date: | 2022–05–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedlwp:94192&r= |
| By: | David Huber; Leonie Kühl; Nora Szech |
| Abstract: | Many societies report an increasingly divergent development of managers’ salaries compared to that of their workforce. Moreover, there is often a lack in diversity amongst managerial boards. We investigate the role of managers’ gender and incentive scheme on wages chosen for workers by conducting two experimental studies. The data reveal male managers respond in more self-oriented ways to their incentive scheme. Further, we find that experience with the workers’ task can increase appreciation of workers. Effects are strongest when the managers’ compensation scheme rules out self-orientation. Overall, female managers display more consistency in choosing adequate wages for workers, i.e. their choices are less affected by incentives. An increase in diversity may thus help reducing salary disparities and foster work atmosphere. |
| Keywords: | adequate wages, real work experiment, gender |
| JEL: | D01 J16 |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_9713&r= |
| By: | Julien Albertini (Univ Lyon, Université Lumière Lyon 2, GATE UMR 5824, F-69130 Ecully, France, France); Valentin Jouvanceau (Lietuvos Bankas); Stéphane Moyen (Bundesbank) |
| Abstract: | This paper proposes a new strategy for modeling and solving state-dependent forward guidance policies (SCFG). We study its transmission channels using a DSGE model with search and matching frictions in which agents account for the fact that the SCFG is an endogenous regime-switching system. A fully credible SCFG causes a boom in inflation and output but no rapid exit from the ZLB. Thus, the transmission of its effects is primarily through the realization of additional ZLB periods more than through changes in expectations. We next consider the implications of imperfect credibility. In this case of uncertainty, an SCFG is less impactful. Finally, using counterfactual experiments on the December 2012 FOMC statement, we find that it led to about 1.5 pp gain in unemployment and 0.5 pp in inflation. |
| Keywords: | New Keynesian model, Search and matching, ZLB, Forward guidance |
| JEL: | E30 J60 |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gat:wpaper:2205&r= |
| By: | Nyman, Pär (Statsvetenskapliga institutionen, Uppsala universitet.); Aggeborn, Linuz (Statsvetenskapliga institutionen, Uppsala universitet); Ahlskog, Rafael (Statsvetenskapliga institutionen, Uppsala universitet) |
| Abstract: | Information plays a key role in economics. According to the benchmark neoclassical model, agents require information in order to optimize their choices. Information, however, is sometimes incomplete or asymmetric in the real world. In this paper, we investigate the role of information for the labour–leisure choice. We conduct an information experiment wherein we distribute a leaflet about the Swedish Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC), and then study the effects with registry data. More specifically, we focus on the household decision to allocate between labour income and parental leave payments. The EITC, it bears noting, applies to the former but not to the latter. The construction of the Swedish EITC generates a strong economic incentive to have some labour income during a calendar year, because it is tailored to benefit low labour income earners more in relative terms. Yet, despite the substantial economic incentives involved, and despite the flexibility with which a person may earn labour income, we find that providing information about the features of the EITC has zero impact on labour supply. |
| Keywords: | Labour Supply; Information; Experiment; Earned Income Tax Credit; Sweden |
| JEL: | I21 I26 J18 |
| Date: | 2022–05–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:ifauwp:2022_009&r= |
| By: | Arianna Garofalo (Universitat de Barcelona) |
| Abstract: | Over the past three decades, the drop in fertility rates has been accompanied by high rates of migration in several developing countries. We argue that migration affects fertility negatively in the countries of origin. To analyze the effect of migration we build a fertility choice model, based on De La Croix (2014), with endogenous migration decisions. In this framework, when a member of the household migrates abroad, income increases due to remittances but at the same time, individuals left at home face a much higher opportunity cost time. This means that household members have less time to devote to taking care of the children and the consequence is a decrease in fertility. We calibrate the model to match the migration rates and to quantify the effect of migration on the fertility rate in those countries. To this end, we first show that the model can replicate the high rate of migrations in several developing countries. Then we perform two counterfactual exercises to address the effect of our mechanism. In the first exercise, we keep the migration constant as in the benchmark model while we give a higher value to the time cost of migration. The result is an increase in fertility. In the second exercise, we quantify how the differences in the time cost of migration affect the differences in fertility. We found that the time cost of migration accounts for 53% of the fall in the fertility of the developing countries in our sample between 1990 and 2017. |
| Keywords: | Fertility, migration, remittances. |
| JEL: | O11 J11 F22 F24 |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ewp:wpaper:421web&r= |
| By: | Jiang, Yi (Asian Development Bank); Laranjo, Jade (Asian Development Bank); Thomas, Milan (Asian Development Bank) |
| Abstract: | Throughout 2020, national and subnational governments worldwide implemented nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to contain the spread of coronavirus disease (COVID-19). These included community quarantines, also known as lockdowns, of varying length, scope, and stringency that restricted mobility. To assess the effect of community quarantines on urban mobility in the Philippines, we analyze a new source of data: cellphone-based origin–destination flows made available by a major telecommunication company. First, we demonstrate the impulse responses of mobility to lockdowns of varying stringency levels over six months starting in March 2020. Then we assess the heterogeneous effects of lockdowns by city characteristics, focusing on employment composition. This analysis reveals that the effect of lockdowns was strongest in cities where a high share of workforce was employed in work-from-home-friendly sectors or medium to large enterprises. We compare our f indings with cross-country evidence on lockdowns and mobility, discuss the economic implications for containment policies in the Philippines, and suggest additional research that can be based on this novel dataset. |
| Keywords: | mobility; employment; lockdowns; nonpharmaceutical interventions; remote work |
| JEL: | I18 J61 K32 O18 |
| Date: | 2022–05–25 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:adbewp:0659&r= |