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on Labour Economics |
| By: | Goerlach, Joseph-Simon (Bocconi University) |
| Abstract: | As wages in migrant sending countries catch up with those in destinations, migrants adjust on several margins, including their duration of stay, the number of migrations they undertake, as well as the amount saved while abroad. This paper combines Mexican and U.S. data to estimate a dynamic model of consumption, emigration and re-migration, accounting for financial constraints. An increase in Mexican household earnings shortens migration duration, but raises the number of trips per migrant. For lower-income migrants, a rise in Mexican wages leads to a more than proportional effect on consumption expenditure in Mexico, arising from repatriated savings. |
| Keywords: | migration duration, repeat migration, borrowing constraints |
| JEL: | J61 D15 F22 |
| Date: | 2021–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp14817&r= |
| By: | Batista, Catia (Nova School of Business and Economics); McKenzie, David (World Bank) |
| Abstract: | We test different classic migration theories by using incentivized laboratory experiments to investigate how potential migrants decide between working in different destinations. We test theories of income maximization, skill-selection, and multi-destination choice as we vary migration costs, liquidity constraints, risk, social benefits, and incomplete information. The standard income maximization model leads to a much higher migration rate and more negative skill-selection than occurs when migration decisions take place under more realistic assumptions. The independence of irrelevant alternatives assumption mostly holds when decisions just involve wages, costs, and liquidity constraints, but breaks down once we add risk and incomplete information. |
| Keywords: | migrant selection, destination choice, lab experiment, IIA |
| JEL: | F22 O15 C91 |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp14717&r= |
| By: | Illing, Hannah (University of Bonn); Schmieder, Johannes F. (Boston University); Trenkle, Simon (IZA) |
| Abstract: | Existing research has shown that job displacement leads to large and persistent earnings losses for men, but evidence for women is scarce. Using administrative data from Germany, we apply an event study design in combination with propensity score matching and a reweighting technique to directly compare men and women who are displaced from similar jobs and firms. Our results show that after a mass layoff, women's earnings losses are about 35% higher than men's, with the gap persisting five years after job displacement. This is partly explained by a higher propensity of women to take up part-time or marginal employment following job loss, but even full-time wage losses are almost 50% (or 5 percentage points) higher for women than for men. We then show that on the household level there is no evidence of an added worker effect, independent of the gender of the job loser. Finally, we document that parenthood magnifies the gender gap sharply: while fathers of young children have smaller earnings losses than men in general, mothers of young children have much larger earnings losses than other women. |
| Keywords: | household structure, labor supply, gender pay gap, job-loss |
| JEL: | J63 J22 J23 J16 |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp14724&r= |
| By: | Mariani, Rama Dasi (University of Rome Tor Vergata); Rosati, Furio C. (University of Rome Tor Vergata) |
| Abstract: | The availability of child-care services has often been advocated as one of the instruments to counter the fertility decline observed in many high-income countries. In the recent past large inflows of low-skilled migrants have substantially increased the supply of child-care services. In this paper we examine if immigration has actually affected fertility exploiting the natural experiment occurred in Italy in 2007, when a large inflow of migrants – many of them specialized in the supply of child care – arrived unexpectedly. With a difference-in-differences method, we show that immigrant female workers have increased native births by a number that ranges roughly from 2 to 4 per cent. We validate our result by the implementation of an instrumental variable approach and several robustness tests, all concluding that the increase in the supply of child-care services by immigrant women has positively affected native fertility. |
| Keywords: | household economics, fertility, immigrant labour, international migration |
| JEL: | D12 F22 J13 J61 |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp14750&r= |
| By: | Adjemian, Stéphane (University of Le Mans); Karamé, Frédéric (University of Le Mans); Langot, François (University of Le Mans) |
| Abstract: | This study demonstrates that nonlinearities, coupled with worker heterogeneity, make it possible to reconcile the Diamond–Mortensen–Pissarides model with the labor market dynamics observed in the United States. Nonlinearities, induced by firings and downward real wage rigidities, magnify adjustments in quantities, whereas heterogeneity concentrates them on the low-paid workers' submarkets. The model fits the job finding, job separation, and unemployment rates well. It also explains the Beveridge curve's dynamics and the cyclicality of the involuntary component of separations. The estimated dynamics of the aggregate shock that allows generating the US labor market fluctuations has a correlation with unemployment that changes of sign during the 80s. We also show that the differences in adjustment between submarkets predicted by the model are consistent with the data of job flows by educational attainment. |
| Keywords: | search and matching, unemployment dynamics, nonlinearities, particle filter, maximum likelihood estimation |
| JEL: | C51 E24 E32 |
| Date: | 2021–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp14822&r= |
| By: | Elsby, Michael (University of Edinburgh); Smith, Jennifer C. (University of Warwick); Wadsworth, Jonathan (Royal Holloway, University of London) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the role of population flows on labour market dynamics across immigrant and native-born populations in the United Kingdom. Population flows are large, and cyclical, driven first by the maturation of baby boom cohorts in the 1980s, and latterly by immigration in the 2000s. New measures of labour market flows by migrant status uncover both the flow origins of disparities in the levels and cyclicalities of immigrant and native labour market outcomes, as well as their more recent convergence. A novel dynamic accounting framework reveals that population flows have played a nontrivial role in the volatility of labour markets among both the UK-born and, especially, immigrants. |
| Keywords: | immigration, worker flows, labour market dynamics |
| JEL: | E24 J6 |
| Date: | 2021–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp14847&r= |
| By: | Drydakis, Nick (Anglia Ruskin University) |
| Abstract: | This paper reviews studies on LGBT workplace outcomes published between 2015 and 2020. In terms of earnings differences, in the US, Canada, Europe, and Australia, gay men were found to experience earnings penalties of 7% in comparison to heterosexual men, bisexual men experienced earnings penalties of 9% in comparison to heterosexual men, and bisexual women faced earnings penalties of 5% in comparison to heterosexual women. In the same regions, lesbian women experienced an earnings premium of 7% in comparison to heterosexual women. Trans women, in the US and Europe, faced earnings penalties ranging from 4% to 20%. In terms of job satisfaction, in the US, Canada, and Europe, gay men, and lesbian women experienced 15% and 12%, respectively lower job satisfaction than their heterosexual counterparts. Additionally, bullying against sexual minorities has persisted. In the UK, sexual minorities who experienced frequent school-age bullying faced a 32% chance of experiencing frequent workplace bullying. In relation to job exclusions, in OECD countries, gay men and lesbian women were found to experience 39% and 32%, respectively lower access to occupations than comparable heterosexual men and women. For trans men and women in Europe, comparable patterns are in evidence. Given these patterns, it is not of surprise that LGBT people in the US and the UK experience higher poverty rates than heterosexual and cis people. However, in these two regions, anti-discrimination laws and positive actions in the workplace helped reduce the earnings penalties for gay men, enhance trans people's self-esteem, spur innovation and firms' performance, and boost marketing capability, corporate profiles, and customer satisfaction. The evidence indicated that LGBT inclusion and positive economic outcomes mutually reinforced each other. |
| Keywords: | sexual orientation, gender identity, discrimination, earnings, poverty, bullying, job satisfaction, inclusivity |
| JEL: | C93 E24 J15 J16 J71 |
| Date: | 2021–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp14845&r= |
| By: | Rohini Pande; Helena Roy |
| Abstract: | Alfred Marshall and Mary Paley Marshall are often described as the first academic economist couple. Both studied at Cambridge University, where Paley became one of the first women to take the Tripos exam and the first female lecturer in economics, with Marshall’s encouragement. But in later life, Marshall opposed granting Cambridge degrees to women and their participation in academic economics. This paper recounts Alfred Marshall’s use of gender norms, born out of a separate spheres ideology, to promote and ingrain women’s exclusion in academic economics and beyond. We demonstrate the persistence of this ideology and resultant norms, drawing parallels between gendered inequities in labor market outcomes for Cambridge graduates in the UK post-Industrial Revolution and those apparent in cross-country data today. We argue that the persistence of the norms produced by separate spheres ideologies is likely to reflect, at least in part, the rents associated with preferential access to better paid, high-skilled labor market opportunities. In doing so, we ask who benefits from gender norms, who enforces them, and suggest relevant policy work and areas for future research. |
| JEL: | B3 J16 J7 O43 |
| Date: | 2021–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29481&r= |
| By: | Ulrika Ahrsjö (Department of Economics, Stockholm University); René Karadakic (Department of Economics, Norwegian School of Economics); Joachim Kahr Rasmussen (Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen) |
| Abstract: | We present new evidence on the existence and drivers of trends in intergenerational income mobility using administrative income data from Scandinavia along with survey data from the United States. Harmonizing the data from Sweden, Denmark and Norway, we first find that intergenerational rank associations in income have increased uniformly across Scandinavia for cohorts of children born between 1951 and 1979. These trends are robust to a large set of empirical specifications that are common in the associated literature. However, splitting the trends by gender, we find that father-son mobility has been stable in all three countries, while correlations involving females display substantial trends. Similar patterns are confirmed in the US data, albeit with slightly different timing. Utilizing information about individual occupation, education and income in the Scandinavian data, we find that intergenerational mobility in latent economic status has remained relatively constant for all gender combinations. This suggests that a gradual reduction in gender-specific labor market segregation, increased female labor force participation and increased female access to higher education has strengthened the signal value that maternal income carries about productivity passed on to children. Based on these results, we argue that the observed decline in intergenerational mobility in Scandinavia is consistent with a socially desirable development where female skills are increasingly valued at the labor market, and that the same is likely to be true also in the US. |
| Keywords: | Intergenerational Mobility, Labor Force Participation |
| JEL: | J62 J21 |
| Date: | 2021–11–29 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:kud:kucebi:2119&r= |
| By: | Grund, Christian (RWTH Aachen University); Tilkes, Katja Rebecca (RWTH Aachen University) |
| Abstract: | Evidence shows that working time mismatch, i.e. the difference between actual and desired working hours, is negatively related to employees' job satisfaction. Using longitudinal data from the German Socio-Economic Panel, we examine the potential moderating effect of working time autonomy on this relation and we also consider the corresponding role of gender. First, individual fixed effects panel estimations reaffirm both the negative link of working hours mismatch and the positive relation of working time autonomy to employees' job satisfaction. Second, our results show a positive moderating relation of working time autonomy on the link between mismatch and job satisfaction. Third, our analyses hint at gender-specific differences: particularly women seem to benefit from the moderation role of working time autonomy. |
| Keywords: | working time mismatch, working hours discrepancies, job satisfaction, over-employment, Socio-Economic Panel, working time autonomy |
| JEL: | J22 J28 J81 M5 |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp14732&r= |
| By: | Gustave Kenedi (Institut d'Études Politiques [IEP] - Paris); Louis Sirugue (PSE - Paris School of Economics - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement) |
| Abstract: | We provide new estimates of intergenerational income mobility in France for children born in the 1970s using rich administrative data. Since parents' incomes are not observed, we employ a two-sample two-stage least squares estimation procedure. At the national level, every measure of intergenerational income persistence (intergenerational elasticities, rank-rank correlations, and transition matrices) suggests that France is characterized by relatively strong persistence relative to other developed countries. Children born to parents in the bottom 20% of their income distribution have a 10.1% probability of reaching the top 20% as adults. This probability is of 39.1% for children born to parents in the top 20%. At the local level, we find substantial spatial variations in intergenerational mobility. It is higher in the West of France and particularly low in the North and in the South. We uncover significant relationships between absolute upward mobility and characteristics of the environment an individual grew up in, such as the unemployment rate, population density, and income inequality. |
| Keywords: | France,Spatial variations,Measurement,Intergenerational mobility |
| Date: | 2021–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:psewpa:halshs-03455282&r= |
| By: | Gornick, Janet (CUNY Graduate Center); Sierminska, Eva (LISER (CEPS/INSTEAD)) |
| Abstract: | Wealth is an increasingly important dimension of economic well-being and is attracting rising attention in discussions of social inequality. In this paper, we compare – within and across countries – wealth outcomes, and link those to both employment-related factors and policy solutions that have the potential to improve wealth creation and retirement security for women. By constructing country-specific portraits of wealth outcomes and "retirement preparedness," we reveal extensive cross-national variation in multiple facets of wealth. Our regression analysis finds a statistically significant and positive effect of work experience on wealth, with that effect, in general, increasing over time. The effect of work experience for single women is greater than for single men, suggesting that, among men, other, stronger forces are at work in creating wealth. The retirement preparedness outcomes indicate that single women in all three countries are in a precarious position at retirement, with much lower expected annual wealth levels than single men. The second preparedness indicator, which links expected annual wealth to income, demonstrates that men have the potential to cover 1larger shares of their income at retirement – and thus are more able, than their female counterparts, to maintain standards of living achieved earlier in life. Our policy discussion indicates that employment remains a viable option for ultimately bolstering women's wealth accumulation. Many scholars, gender equality advocates, and policymakers have argued for raising women's employment rates – for a multitude of reasons – but few, if any, have made the case for strengthening women's employment in order to ultimately bolster women's wealth building. We hope to help reduce the gap in the literature on policy supports for women's employment and re-open the discussion on how women can create more wealth. |
| Keywords: | wealth, gender, labor market |
| JEL: | J10 J16 I38 |
| Date: | 2021–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izapps:pp181&r= |
| By: | Michael A. Clemens (Michael A. Clemens) |
| Abstract: | Immigration policy can have important net fiscal effects that vary by immigrants’ skill level. But mainstream methods to estimate these effects are problematic. Methods based on cash-flow accounting offer precision at the cost of bias; methods based on general equilibrium modelling address bias with limited precision and transparency. A simple adjustment greatly reduces bias in the most influential and precise estimates: conservatively accounting for capital taxes paid by the employers of immigrant labor. The adjustment is required by firms’ profit-maximizing behavior, unconnected to general equilibrium effects. Adjusted estimates of the positive net fiscal impact of average recent U.S. immigrants rise by a factor of 3.2, with a much shallower education gradient. They are positive even for an average recent immigrant with less than high school education, whose presence causes a present-value subsidy of at least $128,000 to all other taxpayers collectively. |
| JEL: | F22 H68 J61 |
| Date: | 2021–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crm:wpaper:2134&r= |
| By: | Wooden, Mark (Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research); Trinh, Trong-Anh (University of Melbourne); Mooi-Reci, Irma (University of Melbourne) |
| Abstract: | Many studies have reported evidence of negative associations between fixed-term contract employment and fertility. With few exceptions, these studies assume that employment status is exogenous and thus results are likely biased. Furthermore, previous research has mostly not considered whether the effects of employment status on fertility might vary with other worker characteristics. We draw on 19 years of data from the Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia (HILDA) Survey to investigate the association between contingent forms of employment (including both fixed-term and casual employment) and first births, and how that association varies with selected worker characteristics. The issue of endogeneity is addressed through the use of instrumental variables estimation. Our main finding is that both fixed-term contracts and casual employment are associated with a significantly lower probability of first births among men. We also find that these negative fertility effects vary with workers' education, occupational status, country of origin, age, and relationship status. The results for women suggest fixed-term contracts are actually associated with more births. However, in this case one of the instruments fails to satisfy the exclusion restriction, suggesting endogeneity remains a concern when analyzing female fertility outcomes and hence this finding should be given little weight. |
| Keywords: | Australia, contingent employment, employment instability, fertility, HILDA Survey, instrumental variables |
| JEL: | J13 J41 |
| Date: | 2021–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp14850&r= |
| By: | Libertad González Luna; Hosny Zoabi |
| Abstract: | We consider a non-cooperative model of the household, in which the husband and wife decide on parental leave and the allocation of time between child rearing and the labor market. They can choose the non-cooperative outside option or cooperate by reaching an agreement of specialization in which the wife specializes in raising kids (home production) while the husband works and transfers consumption to his wife. The model identifies three distinct groups of couples: Egalitarian couples (with a sufficiently low gender wage gap), Intermediate-gap couples (with an intermediate gender wage gap) and high-gap couples (with a sufficiently high gender wage gap). Our model predicts that while egalitarian couples never specialize and always share home production, those with intermediate and high gaps do have such an agreement. An expansion in paternity leave reduces the net benefits from the agreement and moves the intermediate-gap couples to their outside option where women work more and men do more home production. As a result, the cost of raising children increases and fertility declines. Assuming a loss of utility from children in the case of divorce, lower fertility increases the probability of divorce. Using Spanish data and RDD analysis, we confirm our model’s predictions. Specifically, while we don’t find systematic effects of paternity leave expansion on egalitarian and high-gap couples, we find that, among intermediate-gap couples, the two-week paternity leave introduced in 2007 resulted in a reduction in fertility by up to 60%, an increase in the probability to divorce by 37%, and an increase in father’s childcare and housework time as much as 2-3 hours per day. |
| Keywords: | Gender equality, specialization, fertility, divorce, time allocation |
| JEL: | D13 J12 J13 J16 |
| Date: | 2021–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:upf:upfgen:1806&r= |
| By: | Herault, Nicolas (Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research); Hyslop, Dean (Motu Economic and Public Policy Research Trust); Jenkins, Stephen P. (London School of Economics); Wilkins, Roger (Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research) |
| Abstract: | We use a new Australian longitudinal income tax dataset, Alife, covering 1991–2017, to examine levels and trends in the persistence in top-income group membership, focussing on the top 1%. We summarize persistence in multiple ways, documenting levels and trends in rates of remaining in top-income groups; re-entry to the top; the income changes associated with top-income transitions; and we also compare top-income persistence rates for annual and 'permanent' incomes. Regardless of the perspective taken, top-income persistence increased markedly over the period, with most of the increase occurring in the mid-2000s and early 2010s. In the mid- to late-2010s, Australian top-income persistence rates appear to have been near the top of the range of tax-data estimates for other countries. Using univariate breakdowns and multivariate regression, we show that the rise in top-income persistence in Australia was experienced by many population subgroups. |
| Keywords: | top incomes, income mobility, top-income persistence |
| JEL: | D31 I31 C81 |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp14737&r= |
| By: | Fabian J. Baier (Europäisches Institut für Internationale Wirtschaftsbeziehungen (EIIW)); Paul J.J. Welfens (Europäisches Institut für Internationale Wirtschaftsbeziehungen (EIIW)); Tobias Zander (Europäisches Institut für Internationale Wirtschaftsbeziehungen (EIIW)) |
| Abstract: | Based on an analysis of a survey carried out by the EIIW/Jobcenter Wuppertal among female refugees, we identify significant drivers of the prospect of finding employment and of being in employment for individuals from this particular sub-group in society. The majority of survey respondents used German or Arabic as their preferred language to complete the survey questionnaire of the EIIW/Jobcenter Wuppertal. Probit/ordered probit and Logit/ordered logit regressions are used to identify the impact of a battery of potential influences relevant for the employment perspectives of female refugees. The probit variable meant looking at those currently in employment (coded 1) or, alternatively, those currently unemployed while the alternative approach was to consider an ordered variable indicating ascending hours worked as a measure of "more work" being undertaken. Personal skills, demographic characteristics, as well as family-related characteristics plus certain types of knowledge/skills and competencies as well as access to digital technologies and social networks, respectively, are identified as being key drivers of employment perspectives for female refugees. For female refugees, access to a computer increases the likelihood of having a job. Marriage also has a positive indirect impact on finding a job. Female refugees with university degrees do not have better chances of finding a job in Germany than those of the respective control group - i.e., those without a degree. It is found that the amount of years women already live in Germany is positively and significantly related to the probability of finding employment, a result which holds across a broad framework of control variables. Concerning the country of origin - using specific control groups - we find weak evidence that women from African countries find it more difficult to integrate into the job market than women from Europe who tend to find a job more easily regardless of their language, culture, family status and education. Refugees from Syria are also rather difficult to integrate into the job market. |
| Keywords: | International migration, labor market, supply of labor, immigrant workers |
| JEL: | F22 J20 J61 J82 |
| Date: | 2021–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bwu:eiiwdp:disbei308&r= |
| By: | Botham, Craig |
| Abstract: | The literature on craft guilds assigns them many roles, variously promoting skill acquisition and innovation, reducing transaction costs and asymmetries of information, providing solidarity for members, and wasteful rent seeking. Debate on the latter has typically centred on whether rent seeking was the primary goal of guilds, or whether it was essentially a necessary evil to allow guilds to fulfil their true institutional purpose by incentivizing collective action. It is rarely suggested that guild lobbying may have been a defensive measure against predatory elites, which served to increase economic efficiency and reduce extractive behaviour in the economy as a whole. An implicit assumption seems to be that guild rent seeking disturbs a pre-existing competitive equilibrium in markets and introduces inequality in previously equitable political rights. This essay approaches the topic by synthesising the literature on the rent seeking role of European guilds with that of the role of guilds in urban politics and the literature on firm theory and market structure. It argues that such a synthesis offers insights on imbalances of political and market power that call for a reinterpretation of ‘rent seeking’ behaviour by guilds. Guilds typically faced monopolies and monopsonies backed by an inequality of political power, which their own ‘rent seeking’ sought to overcome. Guilds therefore may have reduced aggregate rent seeking and improved efficiency. A renewed focus on urban politics and market functioning could help paint a more accurate picture of the true nature of guild rent seeking. |
| JEL: | R14 J01 N0 |
| Date: | 2021–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:112746&r= |
| By: | Ogeda, Pedro Molina (Sao Paulo School of Economics); Ornelas, Emanuel (Sao Paulo School of Economics); Soares, Rodrigo R. (Insper, São Paulo) |
| Abstract: | We show that the Brazilian trade liberalization in the early 1990s led to a permanent relative decline in the vote share of left-wing presidential candidates in the regions more affected by the tariff cuts. This happened even though the shock, implemented by a right-wing party, induced a contraction in manufacturing and formal employment in the more affected regions, and despite the left's identification with protectionist policies. To rationalize this response, we consider a new institutional channel for the political effects of trade shocks: the weakening of labor unions. We provide support for this mechanism in two steps. First, we show that union presence—proxied by the number of workers directly employed by unions, by union density, and by the number of union establishments—declined in regions that became more exposed to foreign competition. Second, we show that the negative effect of tariff reductions on the votes for the left was driven exclusively by political parties with historical links to unions. Furthermore, the impact of the trade liberalization on the vote share of these parties was significant only in regions that had unions operating before the reform. These findings are consistent with the hypothesis that tariff cuts reduced the vote share of the left partly through the weakening of labor unions. This institutional channel is fundamentally different from the individual-level responses, motivated by economic or identity concerns, that have been considered in the literature. |
| Keywords: | trade shocks, elections, unions, Brazil |
| JEL: | F13 D72 J51 F16 F14 |
| Date: | 2021–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp14849&r= |
| By: | Hanushek, Eric A. (Stanford University); Jacobs, Babs (Maastricht University); Schwerdt, Guido (University of Konstanz); Van der Velden, Rolf (ROA, Maastricht University); Vermeulen, Stan (Maastricht University); Wiederhold, Simon (Ifo Institute for Economic Research) |
| Abstract: | The extensive literature on intergenerational mobility highlights the importance of family linkages but fails to provide credible evidence about the underlying family factors that drive the pervasive correlations. We employ a unique combination of Dutch survey and registry data that links math and language skills across generations. We identify a causal connection between cognitive skills of parents and their children by exploiting within-family between-subject variation in these skills. The data also permit novel IV estimation that isolates variation in parental cognitive skills due to school and peer quality. The between-subject and IV estimates of the key intergenerational persistence parameter are strikingly similar and close at about 0.1. Finally, we show the strong influence of family skill transmission on children's choices of STEM fields. |
| Keywords: | intergenerational mobility, parent-child skill transmission, causality, STEM |
| JEL: | I24 I26 J12 J24 J62 |
| Date: | 2021–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp14854&r= |
| By: | N. Meltem Daysal; Hui Ding; Maya Rossin-Slater; Hannes Schwandt |
| Abstract: | While the COVID-19 pandemic has laid bare the large costs of infectious diseases, less attention has been paid to the impacts of more common, endemic respiratory viruses that frequently circulate in the population, especially when it comes to their potential long-term consequences for population health, human capital, and economic outcomes. This paper uses Danish population-level administrative data on 35 birth cohorts of children to provide a comprehensive analysis of both the mechanisms through which infants become infected by respiratory illnesses, as well as the consequences of early-life respiratory disease exposure for their later outcomes. First, we document a striking difference in the likelihood of severe respiratory illness by birth order: younger siblings have two to three times higher rates of hospitalization for respiratory conditions before age one than older siblings at the same age. We argue that the family unit is central in virus transmission, with older children "bringing home" the virus to their younger siblings. We then combine the birth order variation with within-municipality variation in respiratory disease prevalence among preschool-aged children to identify differential long-term impacts of early-life respiratory illness between younger and older siblings. We find that moving from the 25th to the 75th percentile in the local disease prevalence distribution ("disease index") is associated with a 30.9 percent differential increase in the number of respiratory illness hospitalizations in the first year of life for younger compared to older siblings. In the long term, for younger relative to older siblings, we find a 0.5 percent differential reduction in the likelihood of high school graduation, and a 1.3 percent additional reduction in age-30 earnings. |
| JEL: | I12 I14 I18 J13 |
| Date: | 2021–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29524&r= |
| By: | Harka, Elona (University of Padova); Nunziata, Luca (University of Padova); Rocco, Lorenzo (University of Padova) |
| Abstract: | We investigate the legacy of the former Papal States on modern female condition by comparing Italian municipalities located in a narrow band across the border between the former Papal States and the former Grand Duchy of Tuscany. While in the Papal States gender inequality was particularly severe, the Grand Duchy of Tuscany experienced a relatively stronger female emancipation. We find that one century after the fall of the Papal States, in the municipalities formerly ruled by the Pope, there is lower female labour market participation and employment when compared to their counterparts in Tuscany, while we do not detect any discontinuity for males. We also find that in the former Papal States there is less political support for the legal right to divorce, historically advocated by women emancipation movements. |
| Keywords: | papal states, gender equality, female condition, divorce, religion, labour |
| JEL: | N9 J12 P48 Z12 Z13 |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp14719&r= |
| By: | Jessen, Jonas (DIW Berlin); Spiess, C. Katharina (Bundesinstitut für Bevölkerungsforschung (BiB)); Waights, Sevrin (DIW Berlin) |
| Abstract: | We examine the relationship between parenting activities and center-based care using time diary and survey data for mothers in Germany. While mothers using center-based care spend significantly less time in the presence of their child, we find that differences in the time spent on specific activities such as reading, talking, and playing with the child are relatively small or zero. The pattern of results is more pronounced for lower education mothers. The lack of large decreases in activities are explained by two factors: (i) that center care replaces time that parents spend with the child but are doing other things such as housework or leisure (a small direct effect), and (ii) that evenings become relatively more activity-rich (a compensating indirect effect). For the intensive margin (full-day vs. half-day) we find more additional reductions in parenting activities, but these are compensated for by lower education mothers during non-center hours. Our findings represent novel evidence that activities in the home environment are a complement to center-based care, highlighting a credible additional mechanism for child development effects of center-based care. |
| Keywords: | child care, child development, time use, parenting investments, Oster method |
| JEL: | D13 I21 J13 |
| Date: | 2021–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp14851&r= |
| By: | Hangartner, Dominik (Stanford University); Sarvimäki, Matti (Aalto University); Spirig, Judith (Stanford University) |
| Abstract: | We review and interpret research on the economic and political effects of receiving asylum seekers and refugees in developed countries, with a particular focus on the 2015 European refugee protection crisis and its aftermath. In the first part of the paper, we examine the consequences of receiving asylum seekers and refugees and identify two main findings. First, the reception of refugees is unlikely to generate large direct economic effects. Both labor market and fiscal consequences for host countries are likely to be relatively modest. Second, however, the broader political processes accompanying the reception and integration of refugees may give rise to indirect yet larger economic effects. Specifically, a growing body of work suggests that the arrival of asylum seekers and refugees can fuel the rise of anti-immigrant populist parties, which may lead to the adoption of economically and politically isolationist policies. Yet, these political effects are not inevitable and occur only under certain conditions. In the second part of the paper, we discuss the conditions under which these effects are less likely to occur. We argue that refugees' effective integration along relevant linguistic, economic, and legal dimensions, an allocation of asylum seekers that is perceived as 'fair' by the host society, and meaningful contact between locals and newly arrived refugees have the potential to mitigate the political and indirect economic risks. |
| Keywords: | refugees, asylum seekers, populism, integration policies |
| JEL: | D72 J61 |
| Date: | 2021–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp14821&r= |
| By: | Aditya Aladangady; Etienne Gagnon; Benjamin K. Johannsen; William B. Peterman |
| Abstract: | We explore the long-run relationship between income risk, inequality, and the macroeconomy in an overlapping-generations model in which households face uncertain streams of labor income and returns on their savings. To manage those risks, households can apportion their savings to a bond, whose return is safe and identical across households, and a productive asset, whose return is uncertain and can differ persistently across households. We find that greater polarization in households' labor income and returns on their savings generally accentuates households' demand for risk-free assets and the compensation they require for bearing risk, leading to higher measured income and wealth inequality, a lower risk-free real interest rate, and higher risk premiums. These findings suggest that the factors behind the observed rise in inequality over the past few decades might have contributed to the observed fall in the risk-free real interest rate and widening gap between the risk-free real interest rate and the rate of return on capital. We also find that the magnitude of the decline in the risk-free real interest rate and offsetting rise in risk premiums depend importantly on the source of income polarization, with the effects being especially large when greater inequality is caused by increased dispersion in returns on risky assets. Thus, the macroeconomic implications not only depend on the amount of inequality, but also the source of this inequality. |
| Keywords: | Income and wealth inequality; Heterogeneous returns; Risk-free real interest rate; Risk premium |
| JEL: | D31 D33 E21 E25 J11 |
| Date: | 2021–11–18 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2021-73&r= |
| By: | Matthew J. Delventhal; Jesús Fernández-Villaverde; Nezih Guner |
| Abstract: | The demographic transition --the move from a high fertility/high mortality regime into a low fertility/low mortality regime-- is one of the most fundamental transformations that countries undertake. To study demographic transitions across time and space, we compile a data set of birth and death rates for 186 countries spanning more than 250 years. We document that (i) a demographic transition has been completed or is ongoing in nearly every country; (ii) the speed of transition has increased over time; and (iii) having more neighbors that have started the transition is associated with a higher probability of a country beginning its own transition. To account for these observations, we build a quantitative model in which parents choose child quantity and educational quality. Countries differ in geographic location, and improved production and medical technologies diffuse outward from Great Britain. Our framework replicates well the timing and increasing speed of transitions. It also produces a correlation between the speeds of fertility transition and increases in schooling similar to the one in the data. |
| JEL: | J13 N13 O11 O33 O40 |
| Date: | 2021–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29480&r= |
| By: | Wolfgang Maennig (Chair for Economic Policy, University of Hamburg); Steffen Q. Mueller (Chair for Economic Policy, University of Hamburg) |
| Abstract: | We investigate the relationship between consumer discrimination, racial matching strategies, and employer discrimination in Major League Baseball (MLB) from 1985 to 2016. To this end, we assess the extent to which both fan attendance and team performance respond to changes in teams’ and their local market areas’ racial compositions. We innovate by using a significantly enhanced data basis with individual player data that we derive from combining web scraping and using facial recognition techniques to identify player race and using County-level Census data instead of Metropolitan Statistical Area data. We find that fans in both MLB Leagues developed a taste for racial diversity in the late 1980s; since the 2000s, discrimination starts to increase again. However, this discrimination is not fully rationalizing the performance gap across athletes of different race and ethnicity; employer discrimination is not primarily driven by fans’ racial preferences. |
| Keywords: | Consumer preferences, Discrimination, Race, Ethnicity, Facial recognition, Ticket sales |
| JEL: | C5 J1 Z2 |
| Date: | 2021–12–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hce:wpaper:069&r= |