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on Labour Economics |
| By: | Boll, Christina; Müller, Dana (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany); Schüller, Simone |
| Abstract: | "Using unique monthly panel data (IAB-HOPP) covering the immediate postlockdown period from June to August 2020, we investigate opposing claims of widening/closing the gender gap in parental childcare during the COVID-19 pandemic in Germany. We consider prepandemic division as a reference point and provide dynamics rather than snapshots. Our results suggest a slight shift toward a more egalitarian division in June that, however, faded out in subsequent months. Starting from a fairly “traditional” prepandemic childcare division, the lockdown stimulus was not nearly strong enough to level the playing field. Subgroup analysis differentiating between individual lockdown-specific work arrangements shows that the drivers of the observed shift were mothers with relatively intense labor market participation who cannot work from home. Fathers’ work arrangement instead did not play a significant role. We conclude that the shift emerged out of necessity rather than opportunity, which makes it likely to fade once the necessity vanishes." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en)) |
| Keywords: | Bundesrepublik Deutschland ; Pandemie ; IAB-Datensatz HOPP ; Auswirkungen ; Betriebsunterbrechung ; geschlechtsspezifische Faktoren ; Gleichstellung ; Kinderbetreuung ; Kindertagesstätte ; Krisenmanagement ; Mütter ; Telearbeit ; Väter ; Arbeitsteilung ; 2020-2020 |
| JEL: | D13 J13 J16 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iab:iabdpa:202112&r= |
| By: | Elisa Jácome; Ilyana Kuziemko; Suresh Naidu |
| Abstract: | We present the first estimates of long-run trends in intergenerational relative mobility for samples that are representative of the full U.S.-born population. Harmonizing all surveys that ask about father's occupation and own family income, we develop a mobility measure that allows for the inclusion of non-whites and women for the 1910s–1970s birth cohorts. We show a robust increase in mobility between the 1910s and 1940s cohorts, about half of which is driven by absolute convergence in racial income gaps. We also find that excluding Black Americans, particularly Black women, considerably overstates mobility throughout the 20th century. |
| JEL: | H0 J15 J16 N3 |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29289&r= |
| By: | David G. Blanchflower; Alex Bryson |
| Abstract: | We examine the start date of the Great Recession across OECD countries based on two successive quarters of negative GDP growth recession. For most OECD countries this establishes the start of recession in Q22008 or Q32008. We find that the Sahm Rule identifies the start of recession in the US to the beginning of 2008 but in other OECD countries it identifies the start in almost every case, after that identified by GDP. But the GDP and labor market data are subject to major revisions, so the turn is not apparent in most countries for some time. We establish our own rule for predicting recession using the fear of unemployment series to predict recession. It involves looking for a ten-point rise in the series compared to its previous twelve month low. These surveys are timely and have the major advantage they are not subject to revision. Across the OECD we confirm this finding with other types of qualitative data and especially so in the UK. Qualitative surveys, we show, in the US in 2006 and 2007 predicted the subsequent recession and they did the same in Europe at the end of 2007 and in the early part of 2008. |
| JEL: | E17 J60 J64 |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29300&r= |
| By: | Guichard, Lucas; Stepanok, Ignat (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany) |
| Abstract: | "We study the effect of trade liberalization and intellectual property rights (IPR) protection on the unemployment rate of migrants relative to non-migrants. We build a North-South trade and growth model with a positive steady state rate of migration. We find that bilateral trade liberalization decreases the relative unemployment rate of migrants when migration is low and increases the relative unemployment rate when the migration rate is high. The results do not rely on assumptions about network effects, the probability to find a job for a migrant is independent of the relative size of the migrant diaspora. IPR protection leads to a higher relative unemployment rate of migrants regardless of the size of migration. We empirically test and confirm the theoretical predictions on trade liberalization and IPR protection using data for 20 OECD (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development) countries over the period 2000-2014." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en)) |
| Keywords: | Außenhandel ; Auswirkungen ; Beschäftigungseffekte ; Einwanderungsland ; Inländer ; internationale Migration ; internationaler Vergleich ; Liberalisierung ; Migranten ; OECD ; Arbeitslosenquote ; Urheberrecht ; 2000-2014 |
| JEL: | F12 F16 F22 F43 J63 O34 |
| Date: | 2021–07–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iab:iabdpa:202111&r= |
| By: | Hugo Castro-Silva (Universidade de Lisboa); Francisco Lima (Universidade de Lisboa) |
| Abstract: | In the knowledge economy, skilled workers play an important role in innovation and economic growth. However, small firms may not be able to keep these workers. We study how the knowledge-skill complementarity relates to job duration in small and large firms, using a Portuguese linked employer-employee data set. We select workers displaced by firm closure and estimate a discrete-time hazard model with unobserved heterogeneity on the subsequent job relationship. To account for the initial sorting of displaced workers to firms, we introduce weights in the model according to the individual propensity of employment in a small firm. Our results show a lower premium on skills in terms of job duration for small firms. Furthermore, we find evidence of a strong knowledge-skill complementarity in large firms, where the accumulation of firm-specific human capital also plays a more important role in determining the hazard of job separation. For small firms, the complementarity does not translate into longer job duration, even for those with pay policies above the market. Overall, small knowledge-intensive firms struggle to retain high skill workers and find it harder to leverage the knowledge-skill complementarity. |
| Keywords: | knowledge intensity, technology, firm size, small firms, job duration, skills |
| JEL: | A1 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:inf:wpaper:2012.08&r= |
| By: | Patricia Cortés; Semiray Kasoolu; Carolina Pan |
| Abstract: | In the last decade, Gulf countries have imposed hiring quotas to promote the participation of natives in the private sector and address high levels of unemployment, particularly among women and the youth. This paper explores how one such policy, Nitaqat in Saudi Arabia, affected the outcomes of exporting firms, the most productive sector of the non-oil economy. We find that whereas the policy was successful in increasing the employment of Saudi nationals by these firms, it came at a high cost. In the year following the announcement of the policy, relative to firms above the quota, firms below the quota were 1.5 percentage points more likely to exit the market, 7 percentage points less likely to export, and conditional on exporting, the value of their exports fell by 14 percent. Additionally, surviving treated firms reduced their labor force by 10 percent. We find that to comply with the policy, firms hired mostly lower-wage, low-skilled Saudis. The policy doubled the share of women in treated firms. Importantly, we find that these short-term effects persisted for at least three years after the policy’s implementation. |
| JEL: | J21 J61 |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29283&r= |
| By: | Costa-Font, J.;; Saenz de Miera Juarez, B. |
| Abstract: | We exploit the implementation of a national policy (the Aubry reform) that lead to the reduction of working time implemented across France (which kept individual salaries unaltered) to study the effect of a reduced working week on overweight. We draw variation from Alsace-Moselle, where hours of work fell by less than the rest of France for the first two years when it was forced to fully comply with national policy. We use longitudinal data for 1997-2006 following employees of the largest company in the country (EDF-GDF) which was among the very first to implement the 35-hour workweek in 2000. We show evidence of 6.7 percentage points increases in the probability of overweight among blue-collar workers exposed to the reform. That is, an average 9% increase in overweight resulting from an additional 10% working time reduction. In contrast, we find no effect among white-collar workers. The effect is driven by an increase in overweight among normal-weight individuals before the reform. The effects are robust to different specifications, the effect of retirement and placebo tests, alongside the effect on other areas of France, as well as on a weighted control group. |
| Keywords: | overweight; obesity; working times; difference-in-differences; blue collar; white collar; Body Mass Index; |
| JEL: | I13 J81 |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:yor:hectdg:21/18&r= |
| By: | Bauer, Anja (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany); Weber, Enzo (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany) |
| Abstract: | "This paper evaluates the short-term labour market impact of the COVID-19 containment measures in Germany. It examines two dimensions of the first lockdown in Germany, namely the length and the strength of the lockdown. While the assessment of the length is conducted via variation across regions and time in closing days and curfews, the latter uses the degree of closure in different sectors. For the length of the lockdown we find that an additional day of closure lead to an increase in the separation rate of 2.7 percent and a decrease in the jobfinding rate of 1.8 percent. For the strength of the lockdown the results show that a higher degree of closure increases separations and lower job findings to a similar extent. In both dimensions, we find that the effects are non-linear over time. Given this approach, we find that 31 percent of the considerably increased inflows from employment into unemployment, and 33 percent of the reduced outflows from unemployment to employment in the first wave were due to the treatment effect of the lockdown measures. In sum, the lockdown measures increased unemployment in the short run by 80,000 persons." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en)) |
| Keywords: | Bundesrepublik Deutschland ; Pandemie ; Auswirkungen ; Beschäftigungseffekte ; Betriebsunterbrechung ; Dauer ; Entlassungen ; Arbeitslosigkeitsentwicklung ; Kurzarbeit ; Personaleinstellung ; Arbeitsausfall ; 2020-2020 |
| JEL: | E24 J6 |
| Date: | 2021–07–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iab:iabdpa:202110&r= |
| By: | Els Bekaert; Amelie F. Constant; Killian Foubert; Ilse Ruyssen (-) |
| Abstract: | Aspirations provide the underlying dynamics of the behavior of individuals whether they are realized or not. Knowledge about the characteristics and motives of those who aspire to leave the host country is key for both host and home countries to formulate appropriate and effective policies in order to keep their valued immigrants or citizens and foster their (re-)integration. Based on unique individual-level Gallup World Polls data, we model the aspirations or stated preferences to return or migrate onwards of immigrants across 138 countries worldwide. Our analysis reveals selection in characteristics, a strong role for soft factors like social ties and sociocultural integration, and a faint role for economic factors. Changes in circumstances in the home and host countries are also important determinants of aspirations. Results differ by the host countries’ level of economic development. |
| Keywords: | Return migration, Onwards migration, Migration aspirations, International migration |
| JEL: | J15 J61 J68 D01 F22 C55 |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rug:rugwps:21/1028&r= |
| By: | Asad Islam (Centre for Development Economics and Sustainability and Department of Economics, Monash University); Debayan Pakrashi (Department of Economic Sciences, Indian Institute of Technology Kanpur); Soubhagya Sahoo (Department of Economic Sciences, Indian Institute of Technology Kanpur); Liang Choon Wang (Department of Economics, Monash University); Yves Zenou (Department of Economics, Monash University) |
| Abstract: | Using a field experiment in India where patients are randomly assigned to rank among a set of physicians of the same gender but with different castes and years of experience, we show that the differences in patients’ physician choices are consistent with gender-based statistical discrimination. Labor market experience cannot easily overcome the discrimination that female doctors suffer. Further, we find that gender discrimination is greater for lower caste doctors, who typically suffer from caste discrimination. Given the increasing share of professionals from a lower caste background, our results suggest that the 'intersectionality' between gender and caste leads to increased gender inequality among professionals in India. |
| Keywords: | gender discrimination, statistical discrimination, caste discrimination, intersectionality, affirmative action |
| JEL: | J16 J15 I15 O12 |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mos:moswps:2021-07&r= |
| By: | Karlsson, Linn (Department of Economics, Umeå University) |
| Abstract: | Complementary adult education provides a second chance for those who, for various reasons, did not complete their upper secondary education. Little, however, is known about the economic gains of those who continue on to higher education. This paper aims to study the effect of university education on economic outcomes among individuals who initially attained low levels of education, and then participated in adult education. Swedish longitudinal population register data from 1990{2015 was used to estimate the effect on income and employment among those who participated in adult education in 1994 and enrolled at university in 1996{1998. Difference-in-difference propensity score matching was used to account for non-random selection to university education. The results reveals signifcant gains in terms of earnings for those who proceeded on to university, and also their probability of employment increased. Additional heterogeneity analyses showed minor differences between students of different gender, and little to no differences between young and old students. |
| Keywords: | Adult education; tertiary education; second-chance education; propensity-score matching; earnings |
| JEL: | I21 I23 I26 |
| Date: | 2021–09–24 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:umnees:1002&r= |
| By: | Paul Gertler; James J. Heckman; Rodrigo Pinto; Susan M. Chang; Sally Grantham-McGregor; Christel Vermeersch; Susan Walker; Amika Wright |
| Abstract: | We report the labor market effects of the Jamaica Early Childhood Stimulation intervention at age 31. The study is a small-sample randomized early childhood education stimulation intervention targeting stunted children living in the poor neighborhoods of Kingston, Jamaica. Implemented in 1987-1989, treatment consisted of a two-year home-based intervention designed to improve nutrition and the quality of mother-child interactions to foster cognitive, language and psycho-social skills. The original sample is 127 stunted children between 9 and 24 months old. Our study is able to track and interview 75% of the original sample 30 years after the intervention, both still living in Jamaica and migrated abroad. We find large and statistically significant effects on income and schooling; the treatment group had 43% higher hourly wages and 37% higher earnings than the control group. This is a substantial increase over the treatment effect estimated for age 22 where we observed a 25% increase in earnings. The Jamaican Study is a rare case of a long-term follow up for an early childhood development (ECD) intervention implemented in a less-developed country. Our results confirm large economic returns to an early childhood intervention that targeted disadvantaged families living in poverty in the poor neighborhoods of Jamaica. The Jamaican intervention is being replicated around the world. Our analysis provides justification for expanding ECD interventions targeting disadvantaged children living in poor countries around the world. |
| JEL: | C31 I21 J13 |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29292&r= |
| By: | Ordemann, Jessica; Pfeiffer, Friedhelm |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the evolution of three higher education wage differentials from 1996 to 2019 in Germany, a period when significant changes in the educational composition of the workforce took place. Based on regression analysis and samples of male and female workers from the Socio-Economic Panel Study, the study finds that while all three educational wage differentials increased, workers graduating from universities experienced an inverted u-shape pattern, reaching a plateau between 2011 and 2015. We argue that the decline which began after 2015, and which is detectable as well in the occupational prestige scores, may have resulted from a relative educational upskilling of the workforce as well as changes in the subject-choice composition of graduates. We also document differences between East and West Germany that appear to level off over time. The paper concludes with open questions related to these findings and potential future developments. |
| Keywords: | Educational Wage Differentials,Gender Gaps,Higher Education Expansion,Occupational Prestige,Participation |
| JEL: | J31 J16 I23 J62 E24 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:zewdip:21066&r= |
| By: | Stops, Michael (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany); Bächmann, Ann-Christin; Glassner, Ralf; Janser, Markus (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany); Matthes, Britta (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany); Metzger, Lina-Jeanette (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany); Müller, Christoph (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany); Seitz, Joachim |
| Abstract: | "Knowing what skills are required by employers when recruiting new workers is an important basis for the work of all labour market actors. In the 2nd part of the “Machbarkeitsstudie Kompetenz-Kompass” project, we developed a methodology to identify recent hard and soft skill requirements in job ads published on the “BA-Jobbörse” employment website provided by the Federal Employment Agency. We focus on three broad occupational sets with job contents that comprise economic activities such as mechanical engineering, information services, and human health and social work activities. Based on example analyses, we show that our methodology potentially allows us to identify the development of up-to-date skill requirements in job advertisements broken down to job titles, skill levels, and regions. We also developed a methodology for the completion of skill dictionaries with new skill categories and new search terms. Our methodology is also able to support the selection of specific skills according to their relevance in job ads for education providers and training institutions. We conclude this report with a short description of the most relevant measures to provide general access to the detailed results, access to the further analysis potential, and further improvement of our methodology." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en)) |
| Keywords: | Bundesrepublik Deutschland ; berufliche Qualifikation ; Berufsgruppe ; Kompetenzniveau ; Kompetenzprofil ; Datenaufbereitung ; Entwicklung ; Fachkenntnisse ; Gesundheitswesen ; Informationsgewinnung ; Informationswirtschaft ; Inhaltsanalyse ; Jobbörse ; Maschinenbau ; Anforderungsprofil ; Qualifikationsanforderungen ; Qualifikationsniveau ; regionale Verteilung ; Schlüsselqualifikation ; Sozialwesen ; Stellenangebot ; Stellenanzeige ; 2019-2020 |
| Date: | 2021–08–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iab:iabfob:202107&r= |
| By: | Pinka Chatterji; Yue Li |
| Abstract: | We test for heterogeneity in the effects of the COVID-19 recession on young workers by estimating month-by-month effects of the pandemic on labor market outcomes among workers aged 15-19 and aged 20-24. We use CPS data from January 2016 to June 2021, limiting the sample to childless individuals who lack a college degree. In the younger group (aged 15-19), we observe the expected sharp reduction in outcomes at the start of the pandemic, followed by a return to pre-pandemic levels of work hours, employment, and labor force participation starting in September 2020, with outcomes even surpassing pre-pandemic levels in April and May 2021. In the older age group (20-24-year-olds), however, work hours, employment, and labor force participation were still lagging below pre-pandemic levels as of June 2021. As of June 2021, weekly earnings and hourly wages were higher than typical pre-pandemic levels for that month for both age groups. Although we cannot test directly whether enhanced UI programs have played a role in these differences by age group, our findings show that within the 15-24-year-old age group, there is significant heterogeneity in labor market recovery from the COVID-19 recession. |
| JEL: | I0 J0 |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29307&r= |
| By: | Lindgren, Erik (Department of Economics, Stockholm University); Pettersson-Lidbom, Per (Department of Economics, Stockholm University); Tyrefors, Björn (Research Institute of Industrial Economics (IFN)) |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we analyze the effect of transport infrastructure investments in railways. As a testing ground, we use data from a new historical database that includes annual panel data on approximately 2,400 Swedish rural geographical areas during the period 1860-1917. We use a staggered event study design that is robust to treatment effect heterogeneity. Importantly, we find extremely large reduced-form effects of having access to railways. For real nonagricultural income, the cumulative treatment effect is approximately 130% after 30 years. Equally important, we also show that our reduced-form effect is likely to reflect growth rather than a reorganization of existing economic activity since we find no spillover effects between treated and untreated regions. Specifically, our results are consistent with the big push hypothesis, which argues that simultaneous /coordinated investment, such as large infrastructure investment in railways, can generate economic growth if there are strong aggregate demand externalities (e.g., Murphy et al. 1989). We used plant-level data to further corroborate this mechanism. Indeed, we find that investments in local railways dramatically, and independent of initial conditions, increase local industrial production and employment on the order of 100‒300% across almost all industrial sectors. |
| Keywords: | Railways; Transport infrastructure; Real income; Event study; Treatment heterogeneity |
| JEL: | H54 L92 N73 O22 R12 R42 |
| Date: | 2021–09–22 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:iuiwop:1407&r= |
| By: | Job Boerma; Aleh Tsyvinski; Alexander P. Zimin |
| Abstract: | We fully solve an assignment problem with heterogeneous firms and multiple heterogeneous workers whose skills are imperfect substitutes, that is, when production is submodular. We show that sorting is neither positive nor negative and is characterized sufficiently by two regions. In the first region, mediocre firms sort with mediocre workers and coworkers such that output losses are equal across all these pairings (complete mixing). In the second region, high skill workers sort with a low skill coworker and a high productivity firm, while high productivity firms employ a low skill worker and a high skill coworker (pairwise countermonotonicity). The equilibrium assignment is also necessarily characterized by product countermonotonicity, meaning that sorting is negative for each dimension of heterogeneity with the product of heterogeneity in the other dimensions. The equilibrium assignment as well as wages and firm values are completely characterized in closed form. We illustrate our theory with an application to show that our model is consistent with the observed dispersion of earnings within and across U.S. firms. Our counterfactual analysis gives evidence that the change in the firm project distribution between 1981 and 2013 has a larger effect on the observed change in earnings dispersion than the change in the worker skill distribution. |
| JEL: | E0 J0 |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29290&r= |
| By: | David Lewis; Ian Currie |
| Abstract: | This paper examines whether economic analysis can help provide firmer foundations for the adjudication of human rights claims in establishing monetary awards for injury to dignity and, in accommodation cases, better capturing benefits for society. In relation to injury to dignity, it explores the prospects for establishing an objective evidentiary baseline through a program of independent economic research. In the area of accommodation, the paper considers if the wider use of Cost-Benefit Analysis could help prevent undervaluation of accommodation and whether governments should help cover the incremental cost of accommodation in some cases. |
| Keywords: | Human Rights, Cost-Benefit Analysis, Adjudication, Dignity |
| JEL: | D63 I38 I31 J18 J24 J15 J6 K37 |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sls:resrep:1919&r= |
| By: | Melissa Schettini Kearney; Phillip B. Levine; Luke W. Pardue |
| Abstract: | This paper documents a set of facts about the dramatic decline in birth rates in the United States between 2007 and 2020 and explores possible explanations. The overall reduction in the birth rate reflects declines across many groups of women, including women who differ by race and ethnicity, age, and level of education. The Great Recession contributed to the decline in the early part of this period, but we are unable to identify any other economic, policy, or social factor that has changed since 2007 that is responsible for much of the decline beyond that. Mechanically, the falling birth rate can be attributed to changes in birth patterns across recent cohorts of women moving through childbearing age. We conjecture that the “shifting priorities” of more recent cohorts, reflecting changes in preferences for having children, aspirations for life, and parenting norms, may be responsible. We conclude with a brief discussion about the societal consequences for a declining birth rate and what the United States might do about it. |
| JEL: | I18 J13 |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29286&r= |