|
on Labour Economics |
| By: | Panu Poutvaara |
| Abstract: | International migration flows largely reflect demographic patterns and economic opportunities. Migration flows increase in expected income and other pull factors in potential destinations, and in push factors in the origin, like high unemployment, low wages, and high population growth. Migration flows decrease in the geographic and cultural distance between the potential origin and destination, and in other migration costs. To the extent that migrants are employed, immigration can alleviate challenges arising from population aging. For origin countries, the effects of migration may go either way, depending on whether increased incentives to invest in education are sufficient to compensate the loss of skilled workers. Throughout the 20th century, Northern America and Australia and New Zealand attracted highest immigration flows. Latin America was consistently a continent of emigration. Europe went through a major reversal from a continent of emigration until 1950s to a continent of immigration. In the 21st century, crucial questions for demographic and migration research are how fertility rate and emigration rate are going to develop in Africa. Even modest increases in emigration from Africa would generate major increases in immigration pressure in the rest of the world, mostly in Europe. Other major questions on the future research agenda are the effects of the climate change and rapid improvements in information technology. |
| Keywords: | international migration, population aging, demographic trends, fertility, immigrant workers |
| JEL: | F22 O15 J11 J13 J61 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_9105&r= |
| By: | Chiswick, Barry R.; Robinson, RaeAnn Halenda |
| Abstract: | Estimated labor force participation rates among free women in the pre-Civil War period were exceedingly low. This is due, in part, to cultural or societal expectations of the role of women and the lack of thorough enumeration by Census takers. This paper develops an augmented labor force participation rate for free women in 1860 and compares it with the augmented rate for 1920 and today. Our methodology identifies women who are likely providing informal and unenumerated labor for market production in support of a family business, that is, unreported family workers. These individuals are not coded in the original data as formally working, but are likely to be engaged in the labor force on the basis of the self-employment of other relatives in their household. Unreported family workers are classified into four categories: farm, merchant, craft, and boardinghouse keepers. Using microdata, the inclusion of these workers more than triples the free female labor force participation rate in the 1860 Census from 16 percent to 57 percent, more than doubles the participation rate in the 1920 Census from 24 percent to 50 percent, and has a trivial effect on the currently measured rate of 56 percent (2015-2019 American Community Survey). This suggests that rather than a steep rise from a very low level in the female labor force participation rate since 1860, it has in fact always been high and fairly stable over time. In contrast, the effect of including unreported family workers in the male augmented labor force participation rate is relatively small. |
| Keywords: | Women,Labor Force Participation,Unreported Family Workers,Occupational Status,Unpaid Workers,Self-Employment,1860 Census,1920 Census,American Community Survey |
| JEL: | N31 J16 J21 J82 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:857&r= |
| By: | Daniela Del Boca; Noemi Oggero; Paola Profeta; Maria Cristina Rossi |
| Abstract: | The COVID-19 pandemic has had a dramatic impact on families’ lives, with parents all over the world struggling to meet the increased demands of housework, childcare and home-schooling. Much of the additional burden has been shouldered by women, particularly in countries with a traditionally uneven division of household labor. Yet the dramatic increase in remote work from home since the pandemic also has the potential to increase paternal involvement in family life and thus to redress persistent domestic gender role inequalities. This effect depends on the working arrangements of each partner, whether working remotely, working at their usual workplace or ceasing work altogether. We examine the role of working arrangements during the pandemic on the traditional division of household labor in Italy using survey data from interviews with a representative sample of working women conducted during the two waves of COVID-19 (April and November 2020). Our data show that the gender gap in household care related activities was widest during the first wave of the pandemic, and although it was less pronounced during the second wave, it was still higher than pre-COVID-19. The time spent by women on housework, childcare, and assisting their children with distance learning did not depend on their partners’ working arrangements. Conversely, men spent fewer hours helping with the housework and distance learning when their partners were at home. It is interesting, however, that although men who worked remotely or not at all did devote more time to domestic chores and child care, the increased time they spent at home did not seem to lead to a reallocation of couples’ roles in housework and child care. Finally, we find that working arrangements are linked to women’s feelings of uncertainty, with heterogeneous effects by level of education. |
| Keywords: | COVID-19, work arrangements, housework, childcare, distance learning. |
| JEL: | J13 J16 J21 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cca:wpaper:654&r= |
| By: | Victoria Osuna (Department of Economics, Universidad Pablo de Olavide;); José Ignacio García-Pérez (Department of Economics, Universidad Pablo de Olavide & FEDEA ;) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the type of short-time work schemes implemented in Spain to preserve jobs and worker’s incomes during the COVID-19 crisis. These policies have typically involved some degree of subsidization of payroll taxes for firms and also subsidies to workers. For this purpose, we simulate the impact of the COVID-19 crisis in 2020 on labor market outcomes. The steady-state results show that the availability of short-time work schemes and temporary layoffs does not necessarily prevent a large increase in unemployment and job destruction. The effects of these measures depend on the degree of subsidization of payroll taxes and on the design of the policy. The heavily subsidized short-time work schemes provide incentives to preserve workers on payroll working very few hours that would not have been employed in the benchmark situation, generating deadweight costs and inefficiencies. The transition exercise shows that a scenario with a moderate degree of subsidization of payroll taxes, and where the subsidy is independent of the reduction in hours worked, is the least harmful for both welfare and fiscal deficit. However, this is not the scenario that maximizes the number of jobs preserved. A more generous short-time work scheme, similar to the one implemented in the first year of the pandemic, accomplishes that goal instead. The drawbacks, though, are fiscal sustainability and deadweight costs. The winners and losers exercise shows that more than 50% of the workers are hit negatively in terms of average income and very few workers are better off after this shock: less than 3% in the scenarios which heavily subsidizes short-time work as a result of this generous work sharing strategy. The category that experiences the strongest distributional changes is the one composed of unemployed workers. In the heavily subsidized short-time work scenarios they are the ones who improve more in terms of the proportion of workers affected and also in terms of the average increase in annual income, but among the losers, they are also the ones who lose more in both respects. |
| Keywords: | Short-time Work; Temporary layoffs; Unemployment; Job destruction; Permanent and Temporary Contracts; Duality; Severance Costs; Fiscal Deficit; Welfare; Deadweight Costs |
| JEL: | J23 J32 J63 J64 J65 J68 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pab:wpaper:21.11&r= |
| By: | Jaeger, David A. (University of St. Andrews); Arellano-Bover, Jaime (Yale University); Karbownik, Krzysztof (Emory University); Martínez Matute, Marta (Universidad Autónoma de Madrid); Nunley, John M. (University of Wisconsin, La Crosse); Seals, Jr., R. Alan (Auburn University); Almunia, Miguel (Universidad Carlos III de Madrid); Alston, Mackenzie (Florida State University); Becker, Sascha O. (Monash University); Beneito, Pilar (Universidad de Valencia); Böheim, René (University of Linz); Boscá, José E. (Universidad de Valencia); Brown, Jessica H. (University of South Carolina); Chang, Simon (University of Western Australia); Cobb-Clark, Deborah A. (University of Sydney); Danagoulian, Shooshan (Wayne State University, Detroit); Donnally, Sandra (Lund University); Eckrote-Nordland, Marissa (University of Wisconsin, La Crosse); Farré, Lídia (University of Barcelona); Ferri, Javier (Universidad de Valencia); Fort, Margherita (University of Bologna); Fruewirth, Jane Cooley (University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill); Gelding, Rebecca (University of Sydney); Goodman, Allen C. (Wayne State University, Detroit); Guldi, Melanie (University of Central Florida); Häckl, Simone (University of Stavanger); Hankin, Janet (Wayne State University, Detroit); Imberman, Scott A. (Michigan State University); Lahey, Joanna (Texas A&M University); Llull, Joan (MOVE, Barcelona); Mansour, Hani (University of Colorado Denver); McFarlin, Isaac (University of Florida); Meriläinen, Jaakko (ITAM, Mexico); Mortlund, Tove (IFAU); Nybom, Martin (Uppsala University); O'Connell, Stephen D. (Emory University); Sausgruber, Rupert (Wirtschaftsuniversität Wien); Schwartz, Amy (Syracuse University); Stuhler, Jan (Universidad Carlos III de Madrid); Thiemann, Petra (Lund University); van Veldhuizen, Roel (Lund University); Wanamaker, Marianne H. (University of Tennessee); Zhu, Maria (Syracuse University) |
| Abstract: | University students have been particularly affected by the COVID-19 pandemic. We present results from the first wave of the Global COVID-19 Student Survey, which was administered at 28 universities in the United States, Spain, Australia, Sweden, Austria, Italy, and Mexico between April and October 2020. The survey addresses contemporaneous outcomes and future expectations regarding three fundamental aspects of students' lives in the pandemic: the labor market, education, and health. We document the differential responses of students as a function of their country of residence, parental income, gender, and for the US their race. |
| Keywords: | mental health, job market expectations, students, COVID-19 |
| JEL: | I23 I10 J1 |
| Date: | 2021–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp14419&r= |
| By: | Kalenkoski, Charlene M. (Texas Tech University); Pabilonia, Sabrina Wulff (U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics) |
| Abstract: | Using the 2003–2019 American Time Use Survey, we examine how living with a parent who has a work-limiting disability is related to teenagers' time allocation. For girls, we find that living with a disabled parent is associated with less time spent on educational activities, including both class time and homework, less time spent on shopping, and more time spent on market work, pet care, and leisure. For boys, living with a disabled parent is associated with less time spent sleeping. In addition, when examining the time spent by girls and boys in two-parent households, we find that the gender of the disabled parent matters. Girls living with a disabled mother in a two-parent household spend less time on educational activities and more time on market work and pet care, suggesting that girls may take on some of a disabled mother's activities. Boys living with a disabled mother in a two-parent household spend more time on homework and less time on housework and caring for household children. However, if their father is disabled, boys spend more time on food preparation and cleanup. Boys living with a disabled father also spend less time with their mother. Thus, there are differences in teens' time use that depend on both the gender of the teen and of the disabled parent, with teen girls likely being worse off than teen boys. Our results suggest that differences in teenagers' time investments are a plausible mechanism for gender differences in intergenerational economic mobility by parental-disability status. |
| Keywords: | disability, gender, time use, teenagers, schooling, homework |
| JEL: | I14 I24 J13 J14 J22 |
| Date: | 2021–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp14416&r= |
| By: | Barbara Boelmann; Anna Christina Raute; Uta Schönberg |
| Abstract: | Does the culture in which a woman grows up influence her labor market decisions once she has had a child? And to what extent can exposure to a different cultural group in adulthood shape maternal labor supply? To address these questions, we exploit the setting of the German reunification. A state socialist country, East Germany strongly encouraged mothers to participate in the labor market full-time, whereas West Germany propagated a more traditional male breadwinner-model. After reunification, these two cultures were suddenly thrown together, with consequent increased social interactions between East and West Germans through migration and commuting. Zooming in on East and West Germans who migrated across the former inner-German border, we document a strong asymmetry in the persistence of the culture in which women were raised. Whereas East German female migrants return to work earlier and work longer hours than their West German colleagues even after long exposure to the more traditional West German culture, West German migrants adjust their post-birth labor supply behavior nearly entirely to that of their East German colleagues. West German return migrants continue to be influenced by the more gender egalitarian East German norm even after their return to the West, pointing towards the importance of learning from peers. Finally, taking advantage of differential inflows of East German migrants across West German workplaces in the aftermath of reunification, we show that even a partial exposure to East German colleagues induces “native” West German mothers to accelerate their return to work after childbirth, suggesting that migration might be a catalyst for cultural change. |
| Keywords: | cultural transmission, social norms, maternal labor force participation, German reunification |
| JEL: | J10 J20 Z10 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_9094&r= |
| By: | Vladimir Pecheu (Aix Marseille Univ, CNRS, AMSE, Marseille, France) |
| Abstract: | There is no consensus among economists about the reasons why firms resort to profit sharing compensation, especially in larger firms. This paper presents evidence for France showing that firms with unions are more likely to resort to profit sharing than those without and, moreover, that strike incidence decreases with its usage. Inspired by these stylized facts, I develop a model to study the effects of profit sharing on union behavior that introduces two novel mechanisms. First, by making employee compensation depend on output, profit sharing makes unions internalize the cost of their strikes so that they are less inclined to organize collective actions. This in turn damages the credibility of their strike threats. Second, over time unions lose reputation, which further reduces their bargaining power. Lastly, I test the model using exogenous dates of elections of union representatives that give incentives for unions to organize collective actions in a competition for voters. I show that employers anticipate the effect of elections by increasing the usage of profit sharing. Its payment leads to a reduction in strike length the same year, and to a drop in wage growth by about 13 percent the year after. The effect is concentrated on lower occupations for whom wage growth is almost halved and driven by a reduction in the bargaining power of unions. |
| Keywords: | profit sharing, unions, bargaining, strikes, reputation, labor income inequality |
| JEL: | M52 J51 J52 C78 |
| Date: | 2021–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aim:wpaimx:2135&r= |
| By: | Niklas Engbom |
| Abstract: | Recent micro evidence of how workers search for jobs is shown to have critical implications for the macroeconomic propagation of labor market shocks. Unemployed workers send over 10 times as many job applications in a month as their employed peers, but are less than half as likely per application to make a move. I interpret these patterns as the unemployed applying for more jobs that they are less likely to be a good fit for. During periods of high unemployment, it consequently becomes harder for firms to assert who is a good fit for the job. By raising the cost of recruiting, a short-lived adverse shock has a persistent negative impact on the job finding rate. I provide evidence that firms spend more time on recruiting when unemployment is high, quantitatively consistent with the theory. |
| JEL: | E24 E32 J63 J64 |
| Date: | 2021–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:28829&r= |
| By: | Alex Chernoff; Casey Warman |
| Abstract: | COVID-19 may accelerate the automation of jobs as employers invest in technology to safeguard against pandemics. We identify occupations that have high automation potential and also exhibit a high risk of viral infection. We examine regional variation in terms of which U.S. local labor markets are most at risk. Next, we outline the differential impacts COVID-19 may have on different demographic groups. We find that the highest-risk occupations in the U.S. are those held by females with mid- to low wage and education levels. Using comparable data for 25 other countries, we also find that women in this demographic are at the highest risk internationally. We examine monthly employment data from the U.S. and find that women in high-risk occupations experienced a larger initial decline in employment and a weaker recovery during the pandemic. |
| Keywords: | Coronavirus disease (COVID-19); International topics; Labour markets |
| JEL: | I14 I24 J15 J16 R12 |
| Date: | 2021–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bca:bocawp:21-25&r= |
| By: | Brodeur, Abel (University of Ottawa); Kattan, Lamis (University of Ottawa) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the impact of male casualties due to World War II on fertility and female employment in the United States. We rely on the number of casualties at the county-level and use a difference-in-differences strategy. While most counties in the U.S. experienced a Baby Boom following the war, we find that the increase in fertility was lower in high-casualty rate counties than in low-casualty rate counties. Analyzing the channels through which male casualties could have decreased fertility, we provide evidence that county male casualties are positively related to 1950s female employment and household income. |
| Keywords: | baby boom, fertility, female labor supply, World War II |
| JEL: | J11 J13 J24 N3 N4 |
| Date: | 2021–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp14410&r= |
| By: | Eran Yashiv (The Eitan Berglas School of Economics, Tel Aviv University) |
| Abstract: | This paper studies outcomes for workers moving from a poor to a rich economy employing a job tasks based approach. It uses a data case, whereby a worker could decide to work in a richer economy and place himself there by a daily or weekly commute. This set-up faciliates the disentanglement of income differences motives from a plethora of other motives. Thus it eschews the bias inherent in many studies. The paper emphasizes the idea that tasks are tied to locations, and workers choose a location-task-wage ‘pack.’ The task demanded, which is a bundle of skills, constrains human capital returns for movers. Relatively low task returns generate a substantial offset to the productivity gain for migrants, stemming from the rich economy having higher TFP and capital. |
| Keywords: | movers and stayers, rich and poor economies, migranttasks, location-task-wage bundle, pure income effects, TFP differentials, human capital differences, self-selection |
| JEL: | E24 F22 F66 J24 J31 J61 O15 |
| Date: | 2021–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crm:wpaper:2119&r= |
| By: | Noe Reidt (CER–ETH – Center of Economic Research at ETH Zurich, Switzerland) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the impact of climate policies on the labor markets in developing countries characterized by a large informal economy. I conduct the analysis employing a dynamic general equilibrium model, which incorporates the three prevalent working groups in developing countries: informal self-employment, informal employment, and formal employment. To capture the mobility of workers between these groups, I use a search and match mechanism with search frictions for formal and informal firms and with on-thejob search. The model is calibrated to India to elaborate on the impact of climate policies envisioning a tax on energy with different redistribution schemes of the tax revenue. The results show that climate policies strengthening the position of the productive formal sector can lead to a triple dividend effect: emissions drop due to the energy tax, whereas the redistribution scheme increases the formal labor share and welfare. Developing countries with widespread informality can utilize climate policies to improve labor conditions while reaching their climate targets. |
| Keywords: | development, climate policies, employment, search frictions, informality |
| JEL: | C68 E26 J46 J64 Q56 |
| Date: | 2021–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eth:wpswif:21-351&r= |
| By: | Molinder, Jakob (Department of Economic History, Lund University); Karlsson, Tobias (Department of Economic History, Lund University); Enflo, Kerstin (Department of Economic History, Lund University) |
| Abstract: | This paper tests if a strong labor movement leads to fewer industrial conflicts. The focus is on Sweden between the first general election in 1919 and the famous Saltsjöbaden Agreement in 1938, a formative period when the country transitioned from fierce labor conflicts to a state of industrial peace. Using panel data techniques to analyze more than 2,000 strikes in 103 Swedish towns, we find that a shift of municipal political majority towards the Social Democrats led to a significant decline in local strike activity, but only in towns where union presence was strong. The strike-reducing mechanism is related to corporatist explanations rather than increased social spending in municipal budgets. |
| Keywords: | power resource theory; industrial conflicts; strikes; labor markets; local politics |
| JEL: | H53 J51 N34 N44 |
| Date: | 2021–05–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:luekhi:0222&r= |
| By: | Tallås Ahlzén, Malin (Swedish Institute for Social Research, Stockholm University) |
| Abstract: | This paper explores peer effects in parental leave uptake between male coworkers in Sweden. More specifically, I use the first parental leave quota, introduced in 1995, to estimate the peer effects in a fuzzy Regression discontinuity design. The results are allowed to differ with plant characteristics related to monetary and normative costs facing the employee, as well as monetary costs facing the employer. Further, the quality of response of both peers and fathers is evaluated. The empirical analysis indicates that there is no peer effect in Sweden on average and the heterogeneity analysis of costs reveal no robust differences. While the first stage is strong throughout, there is no robust reduced form. This implies that peers (and fathers) responded to the reform, but there was no additional effect on fathers from their peers. I suggest two features of the Swedish setting which in combination are especially unfavorable for peer effects. Firstly, the extensive margin among Swedish fathers was relatively high before the reform. Secondly, the Swedish system allows for continuous applications of parental leave and a flexible outtake. I provide suggestive evidence of a tradeoff between the scope for peer effects and the quality of the information transmitted. |
| Keywords: | Peer effects; Parental leave; Quota |
| JEL: | J13 J16 J18 Z13 |
| Date: | 2021–05–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:sofiwp:2021_001&r= |
| By: | Euiyoung Jung (PSE - Paris School of Economics - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement) |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes the optimal cyclical behavior of labor market policies in an economy with asset and labor market frictions. The policies of interest include unemployment insurance (UI) and employment protection (EP). In addition to their supply-side effects, labor market policies affect the aggregate demand via earning risk and redistribution channels. Under bilateral wage bargaining, I find that procyclical UI and countercyclical EP deliver superior welfare outcomes through stabilization via both supply and demand channels. |
| Keywords: | new keynesian,uncertainty,unemployment,incomplete markets,labor market policy New Keynesian,Uncertainty,Unemployment,Incomplete markets,Labor market policy JEL Classification: E12,E21,E24,E29,E32,E61,E69,J68,J65 |
| Date: | 2021–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:psewpa:halshs-03243698&r= |
| By: | Noritaka Kudoh (Nagoya University); Hiroaki Miyamoto (Tokyo Metropolitan University) |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the impact of the robotics revolution on the labor market outcomes through the lens of capital-augmenting technological progress. We develop a tractable search-matching model with labor market segmentation and multi-factor production to find the condition under which the new technology harms the labor market in the long run. The robotics revolution hits the labor market for routine-task intensive jobs harder under a more generous unemployment policy. Automation of abstract tasks may cause a disaster for those who are reallocated to routine-task intensive occupations. |
| Keywords: | robots, capital-augmenting technological progress, search-matching frictions, unemployment, routinization |
| JEL: | E32 J20 J64 |
| Date: | 2021–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:kch:wpaper:sdes-2021-5&r= |
| By: | Nora Lustig (Tulane University); Valentina Martinez Pabon (Tulane University); Guido Neidhöfer (ZEW); Mariano Tommasi (Universidad de San Andres) |
| Abstract: | We simulate the short- and long-term distributional consequences of COVID-19 in the four largest Latin American economies: Argentina, Brazil, Colombia and Mexico. We show that the short-term impact on income inequality and poverty can be very significant, but that additional spending on social assistance more than offsets the effect in Brazil. The offsetting effect is significant in Argentina and Colombia, and nil in Mexico where there has been no such expansion. We find that a universal basic income that would have produced the same reduction in the poverty gap as actual policies would have cost slightly more but would have benefited the poor (the nonpoor) slightly less (more). To project the long-term consequences, we estimate the impact of the pandemic on school achievement and its intergenerational persistence. We use information on school closures, educational mitigation policies, and account for educational losses related to health shocks and parental job loss. Our findings show that in all four countries the impact is strongly asymmetric and affects particularly the high-school completion rates of children from disadvantaged families. Our simulations suggest that mitigation policies seem to have a minor impact on containing these negative effects. |
| Keywords: | COVID-19, lockdowns, inequality, poverty, human capital, school closures, social spending, intergenerational persistence, Latin America, Argentina, Brazil, Colombia, Mexico |
| JEL: | C63 D31 I24 I32 I38 J62 |
| Date: | 2021–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sad:wpaper:153&r= |
| By: | Kim, Mee Jung (Sejong University); Lee, Kyung Min (George Mason University); Brown, J. David (U.S. Census Bureau); Earle, John S. (George Mason University) |
| Abstract: | Black-owned businesses tend to operate with less finance and employ fewer workers than those owned by Whites. Motivated by a simple conceptual framework, we document these facts and show they are causally connected using large firm-level surveys linked to universal employer data from the Census Bureau. We find that the racial financing gap is most pronounced at start-up and tends to narrow with firm age. At any age, Black-owned firms are less likely to receive bank loans, more likely to refrain from applying because they expect denial, and more likely to report that lack of finance reduces their profitability. Yet the observable characteristics of Black entrepreneurs are similar in most respects to Whites, and in some ways - higher education, growth-oriented motivations, and involvement in the business - would seem to imply higher, not lower, demand for finance. Concerning employment, we find that Black-owned firms have on average about 12 percent fewer employees than those owned by Whites, but the difference drops when controlling for firm age and other characteristics. However, when the analysis holds financial variables constant, the results imply that equally well-financed Black-owned firms would be larger than White-owned by about seven percent. Exploiting the credit supply shock of changing assignment to Community Reinvestment Act treatment through a Regression Discontinuity Design in a firm-level panel regression framework, we find that expanded credit access raises employment 5-7 percentage points more at Black-owned businesses than White-owned firms in treated neighborhoods. |
| Keywords: | business ownership, racial inequality, firm employment, Community Reinvestment Act |
| JEL: | J15 G20 H81 |
| Date: | 2021–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp14403&r= |
| By: | Kennedy, Tomas (University of Technology, Sydney); Siminski, Peter (University of Technology, Sydney) |
| Abstract: | We conduct the first dedicated study of absolute income mobility in Australia, for 1950-2019. About two-thirds of 30-34 year-olds have higher real incomes than their parents did at the same age, and this has been stable for 25 years. This is among the highest levels of absolute mobility in the world. Nevertheless, mobility was considerably higher for baby-boomers (over 80% had higher incomes than their parents). About two-thirds of this decline in mobility is due to lower income growth. The remainder is due to rising inequality. The mobility estimate is higher (78%) when income is adjusted (equivalised) for family size. |
| Keywords: | intergenerational mobility, absolute mobility, Australia |
| JEL: | D31 H00 J62 |
| Date: | 2021–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp14417&r= |
| By: | Nicolas Petrosky-Nadeau; Robert G. Valletta |
| Abstract: | To provide relief to the U.S. labor market following the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, the CARES Act granted an extra $600 per week in UI benefit payments from late March through July 2020. This unprecedented increase in UI generosity raised concern that UI recipients would be largely unwilling to accept job offers, slowing the labor market recovery. Job acceptance decisions weigh the value of a job against remaining unemployed. A reservation level of benefit payments exists in this dynamic decision problem at which an individual is indifferent between accepting and refusing an offer. This reservation benefit is a simple statistic summarizing the decision problem conditional on the perceived state of the labor market and the weeks of Unemployment Insurance (UI) compensation remaining. Estimating the reservation benefit for a wide range of US workers suggests few would turn down an offer to return to work at the previous wage under the CARES Act expanded UI payments. Direct empirical analysis of labor force transitions using matched Current Population Survey (CPS) data, linked to annual earning records from the CPS income supplement to form UI replacement rates, shows moderate disincentive effects of the $600 supplemental payments on job finding rates; this empirical framework also suggests small effects of the $300 weekly UI supplement available during 2021 |
| Keywords: | Unemployment; unemployment insurance; job acceptance; COVID-19; CARES Act |
| JEL: | J64 J65 |
| Date: | 2021–05–17 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedfwp:91997&r= |
| By: | Bansak, Cynthia (St. Lawrence University); Grossbard, Shoshana (San Diego State University); Wong, Crystal (Ho Po) (National Tsing Hua University) |
| Abstract: | We investigate women's likelihood of withdrawing from paid labor to care for children and help them with schoolwork as a result of COVID and school closures. Were women more likely to shift out of paid labor in states where property-division rules would better protect the financial interests of stay-at-home parents? Such higher protection is offered in states with community property regimes or with homemaking provisions, the alternative being equitable-division and no homemaking provisions. We use monthly data from the U.S. Current Population Survey and compare the labor force participation of women with children in grades K-6 between 2019 and 2020, before and after COVID started. We find an association between marital property laws offering women more financial protection and women's labor supply response to COVID-19, especially among non-immigrants. |
| Keywords: | COVID-19, labor force, schools, community property, divorce |
| JEL: | J13 J16 J2 I18 |
| Date: | 2021–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp14408&r= |
| By: | Portes, Jonathan |
| Abstract: | I review trends in migration to the UK since the Brexit referendum, examining first the sharp fall in net migration from the EU that resulted, and then the recent more dramatic exodus of foreign-born residents during the covid-19 pandemic. I describe the new post-Brexit system, and review studies which attempt to estimate both the impact on future migration flows and on GDP and GDP per capita. Finally, I discuss the wider economic impact of the new system and some of the policy implications. |
| Keywords: | Immigration,Great Britain,productivity |
| JEL: | E24 J24 J61 M53 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:854&r= |
| By: | Zhibo Tan; Shang-Jin Wei; Xiaobo Zhang |
| Abstract: | We examine an indirect but potentially deadly consequence of the “missing girls” phenomenon. A shortage of brides causes many parents with sons of marriageable age to work harder and seek higher-paying but potentially dangerous jobs. In response, employers invest less in workplace safety, which in turn increases work-related mortality. Drawing from a broad range of data sets and taking advantage of large regional and temporal variations in sex ratios in China, we demonstrate that in areas with a more severe shortage of young women, the parents with unmarried sons suffer a significantly higher incidence of accidental injuries and workplace deaths. |
| JEL: | J16 O1 |
| Date: | 2021–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:28830&r= |