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on Labour Economics |
| By: | Boll, Christina; Müller, Dana (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg); Schüller, Simone (German Youth Institute (DJI)) |
| Abstract: | Using unique monthly panel data from the Institute for Employment Research (IAB) covering the immediate postlockdown period from June to August 2020, we investigate the opposing claims of widening/closing the gender gap in parental childcare during the COVID-19 pandemic in Germany. We contribute to the current literature by analyzing the medium-term dynamics of couples' childcare division and by considering the prepandemic division rather than providing merely snapshots during lockdown. Our results suggest a slight shift toward a more egalitarian division in June that, however, faded out in subsequent months. Starting from a fairly "traditional" prepandemic childcare division, the lockdown stimulus was not nearly strong enough to level the playing field. A subgroup analysis differentiating between parents' individual lockdownspecific work arrangements shows that the drivers of the observed shift were mothers who worked more than 20 hours a week and for whom remote work was not possible. Fathers' work arrangement instead did not play a significant role. We conclude that the shift emerged out of necessity rather than opportunity, which makes it likely to fade once the necessity vanishes, thereby catapulting parents back to their initial childcare arrangements. |
| Keywords: | COVID-19, intracouple division of unpaid work, childcare, gender, working from home, IAB-HOPP |
| JEL: | D13 J13 J16 |
| Date: | 2021–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp14375&r= |
| By: | Poutvaara, Panu (University of Munich) |
| Abstract: | International migration flows largely reflect demographic patterns and economic opportunities. Migration flows increase in expected income and other pull factors in potential destinations, and in push factors in the origin, like high unemployment, low wages, and high population growth. Migration flows decrease in the geographic and cultural distance between the potential origin and destination, and in other migration costs. To the extent that migrants are employed, immigration can alleviate challenges arising from population aging. For origin countries, the effects of migration may go either way, depending on whether increased incentives to invest in education are sufficient to compensate the loss of skilled workers. Throughout the 20th century, Northern America and Australia and New Zealand attracted highest immigration flows. Latin America was consistently a continent of emigration. Europe went through a major reversal from a continent of emigration until 1950s to a continent of immigration. In the 21st century, crucial questions for demographic and migration research are how fertility rate and emigration rate are going to develop in Africa. Even modest increases in emigration from Africa would generate major increases in immigration pressure in the rest of the world, mostly in Europe. Other major questions on the future research agenda are the effects of the climate change and rapid improvements in information technology. |
| Keywords: | international migration, population aging, demographic trends, fertility, immigrant workers |
| JEL: | F22 O15 J11 J13 J61 |
| Date: | 2021–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp14389&r= |
| By: | Alan Piper (Paris School of Economics; International Public Economics Department, School of Business and Economics, Freie Universität Berlin); David G. Blanchflower (Bruce V. Rauner Professor of Economics, Dartmouth College, Adam Smith Business School, University of Glasgow; NBER and Bloomberg); Alex Bryson (University College London; IZA, Bonn; NIESR, London) |
| Abstract: | The cross-sectional association between pain and unemployment is well-established. But the absence of panel data containing data on pain and labor market status has meant less is known about the direction of any causal linkage. Those longitudinal studies that do examine the link between pain and subsequent labor market transitions suggest results are sensitive to the measurement of pain and model specification We contribute to this literature using large-scale panel data from the German Socio-Economic Panel (GSOEP) for the period 2002 to 2018. We show that pain leads to job loss. Workers suffering pain are more likely than others to leave their job for unemployment or economic inactivity. This probability rises with the frequency of the pain suffered in the previous month. The effect persists having accounted for fixed unobserved differences across workers, is apparent among those who otherwise report good general health and is robust to the inclusion of controls for mental health, life satisfaction and the employee’s occupation |
| Keywords: | pain; health; unemployment; job loss; economic inactivity; underemployment; panel analysis; GSOEP |
| JEL: | I10 J60 J64 |
| Date: | 2021–05–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:qss:dqsswp:2119&r= |
| By: | Böckerman, Petri (Labour Institute for Economic Research); Haapanen, Mika (Jyväskylä University School of Business and Economics); Jepsen, Christopher (University College Dublin) |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the causal effect of parental death on children's mental health. Combining several nationwide register-based data for Finnish citizens born between 1971 and 1986, we use an event study methodology to analyze hospitalization for mental health-related reasons by the age of 30. We find that there is no clear evidence of increased hospitalization following the death of a parent of a different gender, but there are significant effects for boys losing their fathers and girls losing their mothers. Depression is the most common cause of hospitalization in the first three years following paternal death, whereas anxiety and, to a lesser extent, self-harm are the most common causes five to ten years after paternal death. We also provide descriptive evidence of an increase in the use of mental health-related medications and sickness absence, as well as substantial reductions in years of schooling, employment, and earnings in adulthood for the affected children. |
| Keywords: | parental death, mental health, hospitalization, depression, labor market |
| JEL: | I10 I12 J12 J13 |
| Date: | 2021–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp14385&r= |
| By: | Delia Furtado; Kerry L. Papps; Nikolaos Theodoropoulos |
| Abstract: | We examine how work norms affect Social Security Disability Insurance (SSDI) take-up rates in response to worsening economic conditions. By focusing on immigrants in the US, we can consider the influence of work norms in a person’s home country, which we argue are exogenous to labor market prospects in the US. We find that the probability of receiving SSDI is more sensitive to economic downturns among immigrants from countries where people place less importance on work. We also provide evidence that this result is not driven by differential sensitivities to the business cycle or differences in SSDI eligibility. |
| Keywords: | Disability Insurance; Social Norms; Unemployment Rates; Immigrants |
| JEL: | H55 J61 I18 J15 |
| Date: | 2021–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ucy:cypeua:01-2021&r= |
| By: | René Böheim (Johannes Kepler University Linz); Michael Christl (European Commission - JRC) |
| Abstract: | During the last decade, the Austrian labour market experienced a substantial outward shift of the Beveridge curve - the relationship between the unemployment and the job vacancy rate. Using detailed administrative data on vacancies and registered unemployed by region and skill level, we test which factors caused this shift. We find that the Beveridge curve shifted primarily because mismatch increased substantially. Looking on the regional and skill dimension of mismatch unemployment, we find a substantial increase of mismatch unemployment for manual routine tasks as well as for the region of Vienna. |
| Keywords: | Beveridge curve, unemployment, matching efficiency |
| JEL: | J21 J64 |
| Date: | 2021–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipt:laedte:202108&r= |
| By: | Petar Soric (Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Zagreb.); Oscar Claveria (AQR-IREA, University of Barcelona.) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the evolution of consumer uncertainty about unemployment one year after the irruption of the covid-19 pandemic in European countries. Since uncertainty is not directly observable, we use two alternative methods to directly approximate it. Both approaches are based on qualitative expectations elicited form the consumer survey conducted by the European Commission. On the one hand, following Dibiasi and Iselin (2019), we use the share of consumers unable to formalize expectations about unemployment (Knightian-type uncertainty). On the other hand, we use the geometric discrepancy indicator proposed by Claveria et al. (2019) to quantify the proportion of disagreement in business and consumer expectations. We have used information from 22 European countries. We find that both uncertainty measures covary. Although we observe marked differences across countries, in most cases the perception of employment uncertainty peaked before the outbreak of the crisis, plummeted during the first months of the lockdown, and started rising again since the past few months. When testing for cointegration with the unemployment rate, we find that the discrepancy indicator exhibits a long- term relationship with unemployment in most countries, while the Knightian uncertainty indicator shows a purely short-run relationship. The impact of both indicators on unemployment is characterised by considerable asymmetries, showing a more intense reaction to decreases in the level of uncertainty. While this finding may seem counterintuitive at first sight, it somehow reflects the fact that during recessive periods, the level of disagreement in the employment expectations of consumers drops considerably. |
| Keywords: | COVID-19, Employment uncertainty, Unemployment expectations, Disagreement, Consumers, Cointegration. JEL classification: C14, C32, C82, C83, J01. |
| Date: | 2021–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ira:wpaper:202112&r= |
| By: | Nano, Enrico (Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies, Geneva); Panizza, Ugo (Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies, Geneva); Viarengo, Martina (Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies, Geneva) |
| Abstract: | We examine the role of financial aid in shaping the formation of human capital in economics. Specifically, we study the impact of a large merit-based scholarship for graduate studies in affecting individuals' occupational choices, career trajectories, and labor market outcomes of a generation of Italian economists with special focus on gender gaps and the role of social mobility. We construct a unique dataset that combines archival sources and includes microdata for the universe of applicants to the scholarship program and follow these individuals over their professional life. Our unique sample that focuses on the high end of the talent and ability distribution also allows us to analyze the characteristics of top graduates, a group which tends to be under-sampled in most surveys. We discuss five main results. First, women are less likely to be shortlisted for a scholarship as they tend to receive lower scores in the most subjective criteria used in the initial screening of candidates. Second, scholarship winners are much more likely to choose a research career and this effect is larger for women. Third, women who work in Italian universities tend to have less citations than men who work in Italy. However, the citation gender gap is smaller for candidates who received a scholarship. Fourth, women take longer to be promoted to the rank of full professor, even after controlling for academic productivity. Fifth, it is easier to become a high achiever for individuals from households with a lower socio-economic status if they reside in high social mobility provinces. However, high-achievers from lower socio-economic status households face an up-hill battle even in high social mobility provinces. |
| Keywords: | human capital formation, financial aid, career trajectories, gender gaps |
| JEL: | I22 I24 J16 J24 |
| Date: | 2021–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp14368&r= |
| By: | Duleep, Harriet; Jaeger, David A.; McHenry, Peter |
| Abstract: | We present a novel theory that immigrants facilitate innovation and entrepreneurship by being willing and able to invest in new skills. Immigrants whose human capital is not immediately transferable to the host country face lower opportunity costs of investing in new skills or methods and will be more exible in their human capital investments than observationally equivalent natives. Areas with large numbers of immigrants may therefore lead to more entrepreneurship and innovation, even among natives. We provide empirical evidence from the United States that is consistent with the theory's predictions. |
| Keywords: | immigration,innovation,entrepreneurship,human capital |
| JEL: | J15 J24 J39 J61 L26 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:846&r= |
| By: | Cahuc, Pierre (Sciences Po, Paris); Kramarz, Francis (CREST (ENSAE)); Nevoux, Sandra (CREST (ENSAE)) |
| Abstract: | To understand which firms take-up short-time work and which workers they enroll in this program, we provide a model which shows that short-time work may save jobs in firms hit by strong negative revenue shocks, but not in less severely-hit firms, where hours worked are reduced, without saving jobs. Using detailed data on the administration of the program covering the universe of French establishments in the 2008-2009 Great Recession, we find that short-time work did indeed save jobs and increase hours of work in firms faced with large negative shocks. These firms have been able to recover rapidly in the aftermath of the Recession thanks to short-time work. We also provide evidence of large windfall effects which significantly increased the cost of the policy per job saved; yet we also find that short-time work remains more cost-efficient at saving jobs than wage subsidies. |
| Keywords: | short-time work, employment, hours of work |
| JEL: | E24 J22 J65 |
| Date: | 2021–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp14381&r= |
| By: | Chakraborty, Tanika (Indian Institute of Management); Lohawala, Nafisa (University of Michigan) |
| Abstract: | The stagnancy of women's workforce participation in urban India is alarming and puzzling, considering the pace of economic development experienced in the previous decade. We investigate the extent to which the low workforce participation of women can be explained by growing instances of officially reported crimes against women. We employ a fixed effects strategy using district-level panel data between 2004-2012. To address additional concerns of endogeneity, we exploit state-level regulations in alcohol sale and consumption and provide estimates from two different strategies – an instrumental variable approach and a border-analysis. Our findings indicate that a one standard deviation increase in sexual crimes per 1000 women reduces the probability that a woman is employed outside her home by 9.4%. While we find some evidence of heterogeneity across regions and religions, overall, the deterrent effect seems to affect women equally across all economic, demographic and social groups. |
| Keywords: | crime-against-women, female labor supply, instrumental variable, alcohol regulation |
| JEL: | E24 J08 J16 J18 |
| Date: | 2021–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp14372&r= |
| By: | Flory, Jeffrey A. (Claremont McKenna College); Leibbrandt, Andreas (Monash University); Rott, Christina (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam); Stoddard, Olga B. (Brigham Young University) |
| Abstract: | We conduct a large-scale natural field experiment with a Fortune 500 company to test several approaches to attract minorities to high-profile positions. 5,000 prospective applicants were randomized into treatments varying a portion of recruiting materials. We find that self-selection at two early-career stages exhibits a substantial race gap. Importantly, we show that this gap can be strongly influenced by several treatments, with some increasing application rates by minorities by 40 percent and others being particularly effective for minority women. The heterogeneities we find by gender, race, and career stage shed light on the underlying drivers of self-selection barriers among minorities. |
| Keywords: | diversity, race, gender, labor, experiment, field experiment |
| JEL: | J15 J16 C93 D22 |
| Date: | 2021–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp14383&r= |
| By: | Cannon, Edmund (University of Bristol); Cipriani, Giam Pietro (University of Verona) |
| Abstract: | Student Evaluations of Teaching (SETs) have been suggested as one possible cause for low representation of women among academic economists. While econometric analyses using control variables certainly report that SETs can be influenced by the gender of both teacher and student, such studies may still be biased if there is non-random allocation of teachers to teaching. Even if causal estimates of gender effects are unbiased, the inference that SETs contribute to gender discrimination is hazardous, since hiring or promotion committees would not have access to these controls when evaluating SETs. We use data from an Italian university to quantify the effect of controls on gender effects and conclude that there is insufficient evidence to blame SETs for a gender imbalance in Economics. |
| Keywords: | students' evaluation of teaching, gender bias, matching, teaching allocation, hiring and promotion |
| JEL: | A22 I21 J16 |
| Date: | 2021–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp14387&r= |
| By: | Abel Brodeur (University of Ottawa and IZA); Lamis Kattan (Department of Economics, University of Ottawa) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the impact of male casualties due to World War II on fertility and female employment in the United States. We rely on the number of casualties at the county-level and use a difference-in-differences strategy. While most counties in the U.S. experienced a Baby Boom following the war, we find that the increase in fertility was lower in high-casualty rate counties than in low-casualty rate counties. Analyzing the channels through which male casualties could have decreased fertility, we provide evidence that county male casualties are positively related to 1950s female employment and household income. |
| Keywords: | Baby Boom, Fertility, Female Labor Supply, World War II. |
| JEL: | J11 J13 J24 N3 N4 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ott:wpaper:2105e&r= |
| By: | Hakan Yilmazkuday (Department of Economics, Florida International University) |
| Abstract: | Using daily county-level travel data within the U.S., this paper investigates the welfare costs of travel reductions due to COVID-19 for the period between January 20th and September 5th, 2020. Welfare of individuals (related to their travel) is measured by their inter-county and intra-county travel, where travel costs are measured by the corresponding distance measures. Important transport policy implications follow regarding how policy makers can act to mitigate welfare costs of travel reductions without worsening the COVID-19 spread. |
| Keywords: | COVID-19, Travel Reductions, Welfare Costs, U.S. Counties |
| JEL: | J61 I10 I31 R11 R13 |
| Date: | 2021–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fiu:wpaper:2114&r= |
| By: | Zhang, Xiaomeng; Palivos, Theodore; Liu, Xiangbo |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the impact of an increase in life expectancy on the level and the distribution of income in the presence of skill heterogeneity and automation capital. It shows analytically that an increase in life expectancy induces the replacement of low-skilled workers by automation capital and high-skilled workers. It also raises the skill premium, but has an ambiguous effect on total income. When we perform a simulation exercise, based on US data, we find that an increase in life expectancy raises the level of income but exacerbates its distribution. For this reason, we also examine redistributive policies that can mitigate some of the negative effects that follow an increase in life expectancy. |
| Keywords: | Life Expectancy; Automation; Search and Matching; Skill Heterogeneity |
| JEL: | J11 J24 J64 O33 |
| Date: | 2021–05–25 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:107950&r= |
| By: | Ganguly, Madhuparna |
| Abstract: | We analyze the relationship between innovation attributes and competition intensity in a framework of endogenous knowledge spillover due to scientist mobility, and identify the effects of stronger patents on innovation at different levels of product market competition. We �nd non-monotone relations of patenting propensity, innovation incentives and investment in R&D, and monotone relation of scientist mobility, with potential product market competition intensity. The study further shows that stronger patent laws reduce (increase) innovation profitability (R&D expenditure) when the market for the new product is moderately competitive, and have no effect otherwise. The results suggest important implications for patent policy reforms. |
| Keywords: | Competition intensity; Innovation; Patent strength; Scientist mobility |
| JEL: | D43 J60 L11 L13 O34 |
| Date: | 2021–05–19 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:107831&r= |
| By: | Patricia Cortés; Jessica Pan; Laura Pilossoph; Basit Zafar |
| Abstract: | To understand gender differences in the job search process, we collect rich information on job offers and acceptances from past and current undergraduates of Boston University's Questrom School of Business. We document two novel empirical facts: (1) there is a clear gender difference in the timing of job offer acceptance, with women accepting jobs substantially earlier than men, and (2) the gender earnings gap in accepted offers narrows in favor of women over the course of the job search period. Using survey data on risk preferences and beliefs about expected future earnings, we present empirical evidence that the patterns in job search can be partly explained by the higher levels of risk aversion displayed by women and the higher levels of overoptimism (and slower belief updating) displayed by men. We develop a job search model that incorporates these gender differences in risk aversion and (over)optimism about prospective offers. Our counterfactual exercises show that simple policies such as eliminating ``exploding offers" by allowing students to hold onto offers for an additional month, or providing them with accurate information about the labor market, can reduce the gender gap significantly. |
| JEL: | D83 D91 J64 |
| Date: | 2021–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:28820&r= |
| By: | Fouka, Vasiliki (Stanford University); Mazumder, Soumyajit (Harvard University); Tabellini, Marco (Harvard Business School) |
| Abstract: | How does the arrival of a new minority group affect the social acceptance and outcomes of existing minorities? We study this question in the context of the First Great Migration. Between 1915 and 1930, 1.5 million African Americans moved from the US South to Northern urban centers, which were home to millions of European immigrants arrived in previous decades. We formalize and empirically test the hypothesis that the inflows of Black Americans changed perceptions of outgroup distance among native-born whites, reducing the barriers to the social integration of European immigrants. Predicting Black in-migration with a version of the shift-share instrument, we find that immigrants living in areas that received more Black migrants experienced higher assimilation along a range of outcomes, such as naturalization rates and intermarriages with native-born spouses. Evidence from the historical press and patterns of heterogeneity across immigrant nationalities provide additional support to the role of shifting perceptions of the white majority. |
| Keywords: | immigration, assimilation, Great Migration, race, group identity |
| JEL: | J11 J15 N32 |
| Date: | 2021–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp14371&r= |
| By: | Schüller, Simone (German Youth Institute (DJI)); Steinberg, Hannah S. (German Youth Institute (DJI)) |
| Abstract: | What are the effects of school and daycare facility closures during the COVID-19 pandemic on parental well-being and parenting behavior? Can emergency childcare policies during a pandemic mitigate increases in parental stress and negative parenting behavior? To answer these questions, this study leverages cross-state variation in emergency childcare eligibility rules during the first COVID-19 lockdown in Germany and draws on unique data from the 2019 and 2020 waves of the German AID:A family panel. Employing a DDD and IV approach we identify medium-term ITT and LATE effects and find that while emergency care policies did not considerably affect parents' life satisfaction, partnership satisfaction or mental health, they have been effective in diminishing harsh parenting behavior. We find partly gendered effects, specifically on paternal parenting behavior. Our results suggest that decreasing parental well-being likely constitutes a general effect of the pandemic, whereas the observed increase in negative and potentially harmful parenting behavior is largely directly caused by school and daycare facility closures. |
| Keywords: | parental well-being, harsh parenting, COVID-19, policy evaluation, school and daycare closures, AID:A, difference-in-difference-in-differences, instrumental variable estimation |
| JEL: | D04 D13 I18 I31 J13 |
| Date: | 2021–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp14359&r= |
| By: | Eero Mäkynen (University of Turku, Finland.) |
| Abstract: | An establishment can improve its productivity by hiring workers from more productive establishments. Then, how important is worker reallocation for aggregate productivity growth? To study this question, I develop a general equilibrium model where knowledge transmits as workers reallocate from one job to another. The calibrated model suggests that the knowledge diffusion mechanism increases the aggregate productivity growth by 0.14 percentage points and enhances welfare. Additionally, the mechanism significantly amplifies the adverse effect of firing costs on aggregate outcomes. |
| Keywords: | knowledge diffusion, firm dynamics, worker reallocation, economic growth |
| JEL: | D24 E23 E24 J62 O33 O47 |
| Date: | 2021–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tkk:dpaper:dp147&r= |
| By: | Panayiota Lyssiotou |
| Abstract: | This paper contributes to the literature on whether targeted cash child benefits can affect fertility and, specifically, induce families to have more than two children. We exploit the introduction of a monthly non-means tested cash child benefit paid only to families with at least four children. We apply a quasi experimental methodology since the reform is expected to have increased births of fourth child relative to births of third child or higher than four. We find robust evidence that the reform increased significantly the treated family’s probability to have a (fourth) child by about 5% and had no effect on births greater than four. In the post reform period, the control group’s probability to have a (third) child was not significantly different than before the reform. In particular, the finding that the probability of birth among parities greater than four was not affected by the reform supports that what we are estimating is a response of the targeted family to the introduction of the child benefit and not a change in the fertility preferences of families with many children. Other changes (besides the reform) had a negative effect on the probability to have a child that was reversed only for the birth of fourth child among treated families due to the economic incentives created by the reform. |
| Keywords: | fertility, child benefits, financial incentives, unbalanced sex ratios, female labour force participation |
| JEL: | D12 J13 J18 H31 J11 |
| Date: | 2021–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ucy:cypeua:02-2021&r= |
| By: | Melissa C. Chow; Teresa C. Fort; Christopher Goetz; Nathan Goldschlag; James Lawrence; Elisabeth Ruth Perlman; Martha Stinson; T. Kirk White |
| Abstract: | In this paper we describe the U.S. Census Bureau's redesign and production implementation of the Longitudinal Business Database (LBD) first introduced by Jarmin and Miranda (2002). The LBD is used to create the Business Dynamics Statistics (BDS), tabulations describing the entry, exit, expansion, and contraction of businesses. The new LBD and BDS also incorporate information formerly provided by the Statistics of U.S. Businesses program, which produced similar year-to-year measures of employment and establishment flows. We describe in detail how the LBD is created from curation of the input administrative data, longitudinal matching, retiming of economic census-year births and deaths, creation of vintage consistent industry codes and noise factors, and the creation and cleaning of each year of LBD data. This documentation is intended to facilitate the proper use and understanding of the data by both researchers with approved projects accessing the LBD microdata and those using the BDS tabulations. |
| JEL: | D0 E0 F0 J0 L0 |
| Date: | 2021–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:28839&r= |
| By: | Mehic, Adrian (Department of Economics, Lund University); Olofsson, Charlotta (Department of Economics, Lund University) |
| Abstract: | We evaluate a natural experiment at a Swedish university, in which students were randomized to either taking all their courses online, or to have some courses online and some on campus (blended learning). Our setting creates two groups for the online courses: One group with no access to campus whatsoever, and one group treated with campus classes in parallel, but unrelated, courses. We show that campus access in parallel courses improved academic performance in online courses only among female students with affluent parents. Detailed individual-level survey data suggests that there was no relationship between social status and adverse mental health amid the COVID-19 pandemic. Instead, by estimating each student's network position, linked with administrative data on parental income, we show that female students with wealthy parents have significantly less constrained social networks, enabling them to utilize scarcely available campus time to communicate with classmates more efficiently. |
| Keywords: | COVID-19; blended learning; online education; social networks |
| JEL: | I23 I28 J16 Z13 |
| Date: | 2021–05–13 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:lunewp:2021_008&r= |
| By: | Sansone, Dario (University of Exeter); Zhu, Anna (RMIT University) |
| Abstract: | Using high-quality nation-wide social security data combined with machine learning tools, we develop predictive models of income support receipt intensities for any payment enrolee in the Australian social security system between 2014 and 2018. We show that off-the-shelf machine learning algorithms can significantly improve predictive accuracy compared to simpler heuristic models or early warning systems currently in use. Specifically, the former predicts the proportion of time individuals are on income support in the subsequent four years with greater accuracy, by a magnitude of at least 22% (14 percentage points increase in the R2), compared to the latter. This gain can be achieved at no extra cost to practitioners since the algorithms use administrative data currently available to caseworkers. Consequently, our machine learning algorithms can improve the detection of long-term income support recipients, which can potentially provide governments with large savings in accrued welfare costs. |
| Keywords: | income support, machine learning, Australia |
| JEL: | C53 H53 I38 J68 |
| Date: | 2021–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp14377&r= |