|
on Labour Economics |
| By: | Veronica Minaya; Brendan Moore; Judith Scott-Clayton |
| Abstract: | Displaced workers suffer large and persistent earnings losses. These losses can be mitigated by returning to school, yet the extent to which such workers enroll in post-secondary education in response to displacement is poorly understood. Using employer-employee-student matched administrative data from Ohio, we provide the first direct evidence of workers’ enrollment responses following mass layoffs in the United States. Close to 10% of these displaced workers enroll in public two- or four-year colleges after displacement, with the typical enrollment persisting for five semesters, and 29% completing a degree. However, much of this enrollment may have occurred regardless of the displacement. To estimate a causal effect, we compare displaced workers over time to similar non-displaced workers. We estimate that for every 100 displaced workers, only about 1 is ever induced to enroll in a public college as a result. This effect is concentrated almost entirely among displaced manufacturing workers, who enroll at a rate of 2.5 per every 100. Such workers with lower within-firm earnings and from local labor markets with limited for-profit college options are the most likely to enroll in public institutions. |
| JEL: | I23 J60 |
| Date: | 2020–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:27694&r=all |
| By: | Bredtmann, Julia (RWI); Höckel, Lisa Sofie (RWI); Otten, Sebastian (RWI) |
| Abstract: | Previous literature has shown that attitudes and preferences are intergenerationally transmitted from parents to their children. We contribute to this literature by analyzing whether gender role attitudes are also transmitted across cultural boundaries, i.e., from immigrants to natives. Focusing on mixed couples, we examine whether the gender role attitudes of foreign-born mothers-in-law can explain the fertility and labor supply decisions of native US women. Our results reveal that women's labor market participation is significantly positively related to the gender role attitudes in her mother-in-law's country of origin. Employing a new identification strategy, we show that this finding is due to the intergenerational transmission of gender norms rather than other unobservable characteristics of the mother-in-law's country of origin. These results suggest that the cultural values held in their source country do not only influence the behavior of immigrants and their descendants, but can also affect the labor force participation of native women. We do, however, not find evidence that intergenerationally transmitted gender role attitudes affect the fertility behavior of native women. |
| Keywords: | intergenerational transmission, gender role attitudes, culture, immigration, fertility, female labor force participation |
| JEL: | J13 J15 J22 D1 |
| Date: | 2020–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp13533&r=all |
| By: | Peter Ganong; Damon Jones; Pascal J. Noel; Fiona E. Greig; Diana Farrell; Chris Wheat |
| Abstract: | We estimate the elasticity of consumption with respect to income using an instrument based on firm-wide changes in pay. While much of the consumption-smoothing literature uses variation in unusual windfall income, this instrument captures the temporary income variation that households typically experience. Furthermore, this estimator is precise, allowing us to address an open question about how much the elasticity varies with wealth. We find a much lower consumption response for high-liquidity households, which may help discipline structural models. We then use this instrument to study how wealth shapes racial inequality. An extensive body of work documents a substantial racial wealth gap. However, less is known about how this gap translates into differences in welfare on a month-to-month basis. We find that black (Hispanic) households cut their consumption 50 (20) percent more than white households when faced with a similarly-sized income shock. Nearly all of this differential pass-through of income to consumption is explained, in a statistical sense, by differences in liquid wealth. Combining our empirical estimates with a model, we show that the welfare cost of income volatility is at least 50 percent higher for black households and 20 percent higher for Hispanic households than it is for white households. |
| JEL: | E21 J15 J65 |
| Date: | 2020–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:27552&r=all |
| By: | Oreffice, Sonia; Quintana-Domeque, Climent (University of Exeter) |
| Abstract: | We investigate gender differences across socioeconomic and wellbeing dimensions after three months of lockdown in the UK, using an online sample of approximately 1,500 respondents in Prolific, representative of the UK population with regards to age, sex and ethnicity. We find that women's mental health is worse than men's along the four metrics we collected data on, that women are more concerned about getting and spreading the virus, and that women perceive the virus as more prevalent and lethal than men do. Women are also more likely to expect a new lockdown or virus outbreak by the end of 2020, and are more pessimistic about the current and future state of the UK economy, as measured by their forecasted present and future unemployment rates. Consistent with their more pessimistic views about the economy, women choose to donate more to food banks. Women are more likely to have lost their job because of the pandemic, and working women are more likely to hold more coronavirus-risky jobs than men. We also find that between February and June 2020 women have decreased their work hours, but increased housework and childcare much more than men. These gender inequalities are not driven by differences in age, ethnicity, education, family structure, income in 2019, current employment status, place of residence or living in rural/urban areas. |
| Keywords: | Coronavirus, sex, inequity, wellbeing, health, employment, perceptions, donations, COVID-19 |
| JEL: | H1 J1 J16 |
| Date: | 2020–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp13463&r=all |
| By: | Jie Bai; Panle Jia Barwick; Shengmao Cao; Shanjun Li |
| Abstract: | While there is a vast body of research on the benefits of FDI in developing countries, whether and how the form of FDI matters have received limited attention. In this paper, we study the impact of FDI via quid pro quo (technology for market access) on facilitating knowledge spillover and quality upgrading. Our context is the Chinese automobile industry, where foreign firms are required to set up joint ventures with domestic firms in return for market access. Using a unique dataset of detailed quality measures of vehicle performance, we show that affiliated joint ventures and domestic firms share a greater similarity in quality strength compared to non-affiliated pairs. The results suggest that quid pro quo spurs additional knowledge spillover to affiliated domestic firms, in addition to any industry-wide spillover as a result of the presence of foreign firms. The identification relies on within- product quality variation across different dimensions, and the results are robust to a variety of specifications. We rule out endogenous joint venture network formation, overlapping customer base, or direct technology transfer via market transactions as alternative explanations. Analyses leveraging additional micro datasets on part suppliers and worker flows among firms demonstrate that supplier network and labor mobility are important channels in mediating knowledge spillover. On the other hand, while ownership affiliation facilitates learning, such a requirement is not a prerequisite for knowledge spillover. Counterfactual exercises show that the role of quid pro quo is modest in explaining the overall quality improvement experienced by domestic firms. |
| JEL: | F23 O14 O25 |
| Date: | 2020–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:27644&r=all |
| By: | Felipe Barrera-Osorio; Adriana D. Kugler; Mikko I. Silliman |
| Abstract: | We randomly assign applicants to over-subscribed programs to study the effects of teaching hard and soft skills in vocational training and examine their impacts on skills acquisition and labor market outcomes using both survey and administrative data. We find that providing vocational training that either emphasizes social or technical skills increases formal employment for both men and women. We also find that admission to a vocational program that emphasizes technical relative to social skills increases overall employment and also days and hours worked in the short term. Yet, emphasis on soft-skills training helps applicants increase employment and monthly wages over the longer term and allows them to catch up with those learning hard skills. Further, through a second round of randomization, we find that offering financial support for transportation and food increases the effectiveness of the program, indicating that resource constraints may be an obstacle for individuals considering vocational training. |
| JEL: | C21 I25 I26 J24 J60 O54 |
| Date: | 2020–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:27548&r=all |
| By: | Morris M. Kleiner; Ming Xu |
| Abstract: | We show that occupational licensing has significant negative effects on labor market fluidity defined as cross-occupation mobility. Using a balanced panel of workers constructed from the CPS and SIPP data, we analyze the link between occupational licensing and labor market outcomes. We find that workers with a government-issued occupational license experience churn rates significantly lower than those of non-licensed workers. Specifically, licensed workers are 24% less likely to switch occupations and 3% less likely to become unemployed in the following year. Moreover, occupational licensing represents barriers to entry for both non-employed workers and employed ones. The effect is more prominent for employed workers relative to those entering from nonemployment, because the opportunity cost of acquiring a license is much higher for employed individuals. Lastly, we find that average wage growth is higher for licensed workers than non-licensed workers, whether they stay in the same occupation in the next year or switch occupations. We find significant heterogeneity in the licensing effect across different occupation groups. These results hold across various data sources, time spans, and indicators of being licensed. Overall, licensing could account for almost 8% of the total decline in monthly occupational mobility over the past two decades. |
| JEL: | H1 J01 J18 J24 J38 J4 J44 J62 J8 J88 K0 K2 K31 |
| Date: | 2020–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:27568&r=all |
| By: | Armand, Alex (University of Navarra); Carneiro, Pedro (University College London); Tagliati, Federico (Bank of Spain); Xia, Yiming (University College London) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the impact of an experiment in North Macedonia in which vulnerable unemployed individuals applying to a subsidized employment program were randomly selected to attend job interviews. Employers hiring a new employee from the target population receive a subsidy covering the wage cost of the worker for the first six months. Using administrative employment data, we find that attending the job interview led to an increase of 15 percentage points in the likelihood of being employed 3.5 years after the start of the intervention. We also find positive and statistically significant effects on individuals' non-cognitive and work-related skills. |
| Keywords: | active labor market policy, unemployment, wage subsidies, job search |
| JEL: | O15 J08 J68 |
| Date: | 2020–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp13478&r=all |
| By: | Olivieri, Sergio (Queens College, CUNY); Ortega, Francesc (Queens College, CUNY); Rivadeneira, Ana (Queens College, CUNY); Carranza, Eliana (World Bank) |
| Abstract: | Ecuador has become the third largest receiver of the 4.3 million Venezuelans that left their country in the last five years, hosting around 10% of them. Little is known about the characteristics of these migrants and their labor market outcomes. This paper fills this gap, analyzing a new large survey (known as EPEC). On average, Venezuelan workers are highly skilled and have high rates of employment, compared to Ecuadorians. However, their employment is of much lower quality, characterized by low wages and high rates of informality and temporality. Venezuelans have experienced significant occupational downgrading, relative to their employment prior to emigration. As a result, despite their high educational attainment, Venezuelans primarily compete for jobs with the least skilled and more economically vulnerable Ecuadorian workers. Our simulations suggest that measures that allow Venezuelans to obtain employment that matches their skills, such as facilitating the conversion of educational credentials, would increase Ecuador's GDP between 1.6% and 1.9% and alleviate the pressure on disadvantaged native workers. We also show that providing work permits to Venezuelan workers would substantially reduce their rates of informality and increase their average earnings. |
| Keywords: | Ecuador, Venezuela, migration, skills, credentials, legalization |
| JEL: | O15 J61 D31 |
| Date: | 2020–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp13502&r=all |
| By: | Gimenez-Nadal, J. Ignacio (University of Zaragoza); Molina, José Alberto (University of Zaragoza) |
| Abstract: | This article explores the gender gap in time allocation in Europe, offering up-to-date statistics and information on several factors that may help to explain these differences. Prior research has identified several factors affecting the time individuals devote to paid work, unpaid work, and child care, and the gender gaps in these activities, but most research refers to single countries, and general patterns are rarely explored. Cross-country evidence on gender gaps in paid work, unpaid work, and child care is offered, and explanations based on education, earnings, and household structure are presented, using data from the EUROSTAT and the Multinational Time Use Surveys. There are large cross-country differences in the gender gaps in paid work, unpaid work, and child care, which remain after controlling for socio-demographic characteristics, although the gender gap in paid work dissipates when the differential gendered relationship between socio-demographic characteristics and paid work is taken into account. This paper provides a comprehensive analysis of gender gaps in Europe, helping to focus recent debates on how to tackle inequality in Europe, and clarifying the factors that contribute to gender inequalities in the uses of time. |
| Keywords: | paid work, unpaid work, gender gap, European countries, earnings, household structure |
| JEL: | D10 J16 J22 |
| Date: | 2020–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp13461&r=all |
| By: | Benjamin Balsmeier; Lee Fleming; Matt Marx; Seungryul Ryan Shin |
| Abstract: | To what extent does high-growth entrepreneurship depend on skilled human capital? We estimate the impact of the inflow of inventors into a region on the founding of high-growth firms, instrumenting mobility with the county-level share of millions of inventor surnames in the 1940 U.S. Census. Inventor immigration increases county-level high-growth entrepreneurship; estimates range from 29-55 immigrating inventors for each new high-growth firm, depending on the region and model. We also find a smaller but significant negative effect of inventor arrival on entrepreneurship in nearby counties. |
| JEL: | J24 J61 L26 |
| Date: | 2020–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:27605&r=all |
| By: | Olivieri, Sergio (Queens College, CUNY); Ortega, Francesc (Queens College, CUNY); Rivadeneira, Ana (Queens College, CUNY); Carranza, Eliana (World Bank) |
| Abstract: | As of 2019, more than 1.2 million Venezuelans have passed through Ecuador and over 400,000 settled in, which amounts to almost 3% of Ecuador's population. This paper analyzes the location choices of Venezuelan migrants within Ecuador and the labor market consequences of these choices, using data from Ecuador's labor force survey (ENEMDU) and mobile phone records on the geographic distribution of Venezuelan migrants. Around half of these migrants live in 4 cantons (out of 221). Their location is primarily driven by local economic conditions, rather than point of entry. Overall, regions with the largest inflows of Venezuelans have not seen any effects on labor market participation or employment, compared to regions with fewer inflows. However, our difference-in-difference estimates clearly indicate that young, low-educated Ecuadorian workers in high-inflow regions have been adversely affected. Specifically, we estimate that these workers have experienced reductions in employment quality, a 5 percentage-point increase in the rate of informality, and a 13 percentage-point reduction in earnings, relative to workers with similar characteristics living in areas with very low or non-existing inflows of Venezuelans. |
| Keywords: | migration Venezuela, labor market |
| JEL: | O15 J61 D31 |
| Date: | 2020–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp13501&r=all |
| By: | Price V. Fishback |
| Abstract: | The paper examines changes in labor regulation between 1898 and 1940 in the context of issues related to rule of law in two areas. 1) Many see the 1905 Lochner Supreme Court decision on men’s hours laws as the beginning of 30 years in which labor regulation was stymied by the doctrine of “freedom of contract.” Seeing close votes and substantial turnover of judges on the Supreme Court, the de facto situation was more complex as some states maintained their laws or passed new ones. 2) Labor disputes led to some of the greatest threats to rule of law. To limit descents into violence, states passed arbitration laws, pro-union laws, and anti-union laws. Uncertainty about the rules led to a sharp rise in strikes and violence after World War I and again when Congress and the states sought to establish the rules for collective bargaining between 1932 and 1937. A panel analysis of the impact of state laws in bituminous coal mining from 1902 to 1941 shows that the arbitration and pro-union laws were associated with less violence during periods of uncertainty. During several periods state pro-union laws were associated with more strikes and state anti-union laws with fewer strikes. |
| JEL: | H77 J08 J52 J88 K31 N31 N32 |
| Date: | 2020–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:27614&r=all |
| By: | Mangiavacchi, Lucia; Piccoli, Luca; Pieroni, Luca (University of Perugia) |
| Abstract: | The lockdown declared during the Spring 2020 because of the COVID-19 outbreak caused a reallocation of market and household work. A the same time school closures in many countries impacted on children's lives and their learning process. In Italy, schools and nurseries have been closed during three months and the incidence and quality of distant learning activities has been hetero-geneous over education levels and among schools. Using a real time survey data collected in April 2020 on children's wellbeing, and parents' market and household work, we estimate how the reallocation of intra-household responsibilities during the lock-down has affected children's use of time, their emotional status and their home learning. We find that changes in the parental division of household tasks and childcare are mostly due to the labor market restrictions imposed during the lockdown and that this reallocation increases fathers involvement in childcare and homeschooling. This positive variation in fathers involvement is accompanied by an increase in children's emotional wellbeing while the quality of children's home learning is mostly determined by distant learning activities proposed by their teachers. |
| Keywords: | parenting, childcare, children's education, emotional skills, COVID-19 |
| JEL: | I21 I24 J13 J16 |
| Date: | 2020–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp13519&r=all |
| By: | Yu, Bo (Deakin University); Lee, Wang-Sheng (Deakin University); Rafiq, Shuddhasattwa (Deakin University) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the role of a sulphur dioxide (SO2) emissions quota introduced as part of China's 11th Five-Year Plan on internal movements of high-skilled labour across Chinese prefecture cities. Using data on migration flows calculated through changes in Hukou status, this study suggests that a 1,000 tons increase in the SO2 emissions reduction quota leads on average to approximately a 1.5 percentage points increase in high-skilled net outmigration. Compared to the largest prefectures, this regulation effect is twice as large in the smaller regulated prefectures. A possible mechanism could be that the implementation of SO2 quotas decreases relative labour demand in polluting industries in the regulated cities in the short term, thereby resulting in sectoral transitions from dirty-to-clean industries as well as skilled net outmigration flows. However, this net outmigration trend fades in the long term due to stabilisation in air quality. Our findings help contribute to a broader understanding of the effects of environmental policies on internal labour migration and labour force dynamics. |
| Keywords: | air pollution, China, emissions quota, environmental policy, internal migration, sulphur dioxide |
| JEL: | J61 O15 Q53 Q58 |
| Date: | 2020–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp13479&r=all |
| By: | Serdar Birinci; Fatih Karahan; Yusuf Mercan; Kurt See |
| Abstract: | We study the effects and welfare implications of labor market policies that counteract the economic fall out from containment policies during an epidemic. We incorporate a standard epidemiological model into an equilibrium search model of the labor market to compare unemployment insurance (UI) expansions and payroll subsidies. In isolation, payroll subsidies that preserve match capital and enable a swift economic recovery are preferred over a cost-equivalent UI expansion. When considered jointly, however, a cost-equivalent optimal mix allocates 20 percent of the budget to payroll subsidies and 80 percent to UI. The two policies are complementary, catering to different rungs of the productivity ladder. The small share of payroll subsidies is sufficient to preserve high-productivity jobs, but leaves room for social assistance to workers who face inevitable job loss. |
| Keywords: | COVID-19; Fiscal Policy; Labor Productivity; Unemployment; Job Search |
| JEL: | E24 E62 J64 |
| Date: | 2020–08–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedlwp:88526&r=all |
| By: | Nie, Peng (Xi’an Jiaotong University); Wang, Lu (Xi’an Jiaotong University); Sousa-Poza, Alfonso (University of Hohenheim) |
| Abstract: | Despite empirical evidence that individuals form their fertility preferences by observing social norms and interactions in their environments, the exact impact of these peer effects remains unclear. We thus use data from the 2014 and 2016 China Labor-force Dynamics Survey to investigate the association between community-level peer effects and fertility preferences among Chinese women aged 18-49. Whereas our baseline results indicate that 11.96% of these women would prefer 1 or no children, 74.1% would like 2 children, and 13.93% would prefer 3 or more children. A one unit increase in community-level peer fertility reduces the preference of wanting only one child by 14.3%, whereas it increases the probability of preferring three children by 9.3% and four or more children by 4.8%. Hence, overall, we find a relatively strong peer effect on individual fertility preferences in communities characterized by generally low fertility rates, which provides support for the role of social norms in the fertility choices of reproductive-aged Chinese women. |
| Keywords: | peer effects, fertility, fertility preferences, China |
| JEL: | D10 D71 J13 |
| Date: | 2020–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp13448&r=all |
| By: | Nicodemo, Catia (University of Oxford); Satorra, Albert (Universitat Pompeu Fabra) |
| Abstract: | New challenges arise in data visualization when a sizable database is used in the analysis. With many data points, classical scatterplots are non-informative due to the cluttering of points. On the contrary, simple plots such as the boxplot that are of limited use in small samples, offer great potential to facilitate group comparison in the case of an extensive sample. This paper presents Exploratory Data Analysis (EDA) methods that are useful when a large dataset is involved. The EDA methods, (introduced by Tukey in his seminal book of 1977) encompass a set of statistical tools aimed to extract information from data using simple graphical tools. In this paper, some of the EDA methods like the Boxplot and Scatterplot are revisited and enhanced using modern graphical computational devices (as, e.g., the heat-map) and their use illustrated with Spanish Social Security data. We explore how earnings vary across several factors like age, gender, type of occupation and contract and in particular, the gender gap in salaries is visualized in various dimensions relating to the type of occupation. The EDA methods are also applied to assessing competing regressions with earnings as the dependent variable. The methods discussed should be useful to researchers to assess heterogeneity in data, across group-variation, and classical diagnostic plots of residuals from alternative models fits. |
| Keywords: | EDA Analysis, large dataset, ggplot, heat-maps, R |
| JEL: | C55 J01 J08 Y10 C80 |
| Date: | 2020–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp13459&r=all |
| By: | Tomas Lichard; Filip Pertold; Samuel Skoda |
| Abstract: | In this paper we ask how the division of household labor varies across heterosexual dual-earner couples with different relative wages with a focus on differences between Southern and Western Europe. Using the EU Statistics on Income and Living Conditions we first show that high income married or cohabiting women do twice as much housework as single women in Southern Europe. Further, their time spent in household production relative to their spouses’ time in Southern Europe is the same regardless of their relative wages, while in Western Europe we find positive elasticity of substitution in household production with respect to relative wages. We thus present positive evidence for the presence of a “second-shift” that women face in Southern Europe, which may stem from regional gender norms. Our findings hold after instrumenting for relative wages using the relative wages of similar socio-economic groups in other countries. |
| Keywords: | household production; division of labor; gender gap; elasticity of substitution; |
| JEL: | J12 J16 D13 |
| Date: | 2020–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cer:papers:wp662&r=all |
| By: | Ken-ichi Hashimoto (Kobe University); Ryonghun Im (Kyoto University); Takuma Kunieda (Kwansei Gakuin University); Akihisa Shibata (Kyoto University) |
| Abstract: | A tractable model with infinitely lived agents is constructed for the examination of bubbles and unemployment. It is demonstrated that the presence of bubbles stimulates capital accumulation and reduces unemployment. The presence of bubbles also changes the effects of government policies that target unemployment and welfare conditions in the labor market. The main findings are as follows: (i) the presence of bubbles is more beneficial to an economy with severe credit constraints; (ii) the presence of bubbles mitigates the negative effects of taxation and unemployment benefits on unemployment and welfare; and (iii) these mitigation effects decrease as credit constraints are relaxed. |
| Keywords: | Asset bubbles, Unemployment, Labor-market matching frictions, Financial frictions |
| JEL: | J64 O41 O42 |
| Date: | 2020–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:kyo:wpaper:1037&r=all |
| By: | Ammar Farooq; Adriana D. Kugler; Umberto Muratori |
| Abstract: | We present new evidence on the impact of more generous unemployment insurance (UI) on workers’ ability to find jobs better suited to their skills. Using Longitudinal Employer-Household Dynamics data, we find the UI extensions introduced in the U.S. improved the quality of worker-job matches. Using Current Population Survey data, we also find that longer UI benefit durations decrease the mismatch between workers’ educational attainments and the educational requirements of jobs. We find bigger effects of UI on match quality for those more likely to be liquidity constrained—women, non-whites and less-educated workers—,suggesting UI extensions improve the functioning of the labor market. |
| JEL: | C55 E24 H23 J21 J31 J64 J65 |
| Date: | 2020–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:27574&r=all |
| By: | Betcherman, Gordon (University of Ottawa); Giannakopoulos, Nicholas (University of Patras); Laliotis, Ioannis (City University London); Pantelaiou, Ioanna (Athens University of Economics and Business); Testaverde, Mauro (World Bank); Tzimas, Giannis (University of Peloponnese) |
| Abstract: | We use administrative, survey, and online vacancy data to analyze the short-term labor market impacts of the COVID-19 lockdown in Greece. We find that flows into unemployment have not increased; in fact, separations were lower than would have been expected given trends in recent years. At the same time, employment was about 12 percent lower at the end of June than it would have been without the pandemic. Our interrupted time series and difference-in-differences estimates indicate that this was due to a dramatic slowdown in hiring during months when job creation typically peaks in normal years, mostly in tourism. While we do not formally test the reasons for these patterns, our analysis suggests that the measures introduced to mitigate the effects of the crisis in Greece have played an important role. These measures prohibited layoffs in industries affected by the crisis and tied the major form of income support to the maintenance of employment relationships. |
| Keywords: | Greece, COVID-19, pandemic, labor market impacts |
| JEL: | J21 J60 J68 |
| Date: | 2020–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp13516&r=all |
| By: | Handy, Christopher; Shester, Katharine |
| Abstract: | We use data from Opportunity Insights to study changes in intergenerational mobility over time in the U.S. Previous research has found no change in mobility at the national level, but we show that this hides substantial increases and decreases in mobility at the local level. These changes appear to be persistent, not simply noise. We use an R^2 decomposition to account for the changes in mobility. Changes in labor market conditions and house prices can explain two thirds of the changes in income mobility. Our results suggest caution in treating mobility as a fixed characteristic of a place. |
| Keywords: | intergenerational mobility, college attendance, labor market entry conditions |
| JEL: | J62 R23 |
| Date: | 2020–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:102425&r=all |
| By: | Briel, Stephanie (University of Hohenheim); Osikominu, Aderonke (University of Hohenheim); Pfeifer, Gregor (University College London); Reutter, Mirjam (University of Hohenheim); Satlukal, Sascha (University of Hohenheim) |
| Abstract: | We analyze the impact of (over-)confidence on gender differences in expected starting salaries using elicited beliefs of prospective university students in Germany. According to our results, female students have lower wage expectations and are less overconfident than their male counterparts. Oaxaca-Blinder decompositions of the mean show that 7.7% of the gender gap in wage expectations is attributable to a higher overconfidence of males. Decompositions of the unconditional quantiles of expected salaries suggest that the contribution of gender differences in confidence to the gender gap is particularly strong at the bottom and top of the wage expectation distribution. |
| Keywords: | gender pay gap, wage expectations, overconfidence, decomposition analyses, unconditional quantile regressions (RIF-Regressions) |
| JEL: | J16 D84 D91 C21 |
| Date: | 2020–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp13517&r=all |
| By: | Schnabel, Claus (University of Erlangen-Nuremberg) |
| Abstract: | This survey shows that union membership and density as well as bargaining coverage have fallen in most countries and that collective bargaining has become more decentralized over the last decades. However, there is a considerable amount of variation across countries and between different indicators of unionization and collective bargaining. Unionization is found to be related to a large number of structural, cyclical, institutional, and socio-demographic variables. Although changes in the sectoral structure of the economy and the composition of the workforce have played a role, their contribution to union decline seems to be smaller than widely believed. The effect of globalization on unionization and collective bargaining as well as the role of changing attitudes of employees towards unions are not fully clear, but the rise of the informal sector in various parts of the world poses a challenge to union recruitment. Union density and bargaining coverage are related, but the link is far from perfect. A more important predictor of bargaining coverage is the level at which bargaining takes place. Bargaining coverage is usually high and stable in countries with multi-employer bargaining, and the decentralization of bargaining structures in many countries has contributed to the fall in bargaining coverage observed in the last decades. |
| Keywords: | unions, union membership, collective bargaining, decentralization |
| JEL: | J51 J52 J58 |
| Date: | 2020–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp13465&r=all |
| By: | Joshua Bernstein; Alexander W. Richter; Nathaniel A. Throckmorton |
| Abstract: | This paper estimates a real business cycle model with unemployment driven by shocks to labor productivity and the job separation rate. We make two contributions. First, we develop a new identification scheme based on the matching elasticity that allows the model to perfectly match a range of labor market moments, including the volatilities of unemployment and vacancies. Second, we use our model to revisit the importance of shocks to the job separation rate and highlight how their correlation with labor productivity affects their transmission mechanism. |
| Keywords: | Real Business Cycles; Estimation; Unemployment; Separation Rate; Vacancies |
| JEL: | C13 E24 E32 E37 J63 |
| Date: | 2020–08–25 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:feddwp:88636&r=all |
| By: | Vasavi Bhatt (Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research); S. Chandrasekhar (Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research); Ajay Sharma (Indian Institute of Management, Indore) |
| Abstract: | Despite an increase in the number of workers commuting between rural and urban areas, much of theliterature on worker mobility continues to be migration centric. This paper establishes the importance ofrural-urban commuting in India. As per estimates from Periodic Labour Force Survey 2018-19, anestimated 18.8 million individuals living in rural are working in urban India and the share of earnings from urban in total non-farm rural earnings is 19.3 percent. Among all rural workers, 7.3 percent arerural-urban commuters while only 2.1 percent of urban workers are urban-rural commuters. Wedocument large variations at the sub-national level. Our results from a multinomial model to understand the factors associated with commuting highlight the importance of lagged regional unemployment rate. A high rural unemployment rate acts as a push factor and a low urban unemployment rate acts as a pull factor for rural urban commuting. The urbanness of occupations in aregion is also an important correlate of commuting. The paper concludes by highlighting the need toprioritize questions in Indias labour force survey that would help understand the nature of labour mobility and strength of rural urban linkages. |
| Keywords: | Labour Mobility, Commuting, Rural-Urban Linkages, Classification of Jobs, India |
| JEL: | J21 J61 R12 R23 |
| Date: | 2020–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ind:igiwpp:2020-025&r=all |
| By: | Titan Alon; Matthias Doepke; Jane Olmstead-Rumsey; Michèle Tertilt |
| Abstract: | In recent US recessions, employment losses have been much larger for men than for women. Yet, in the current recession caused by the Covid-19 pandemic, the opposite is true: unemployment is higher among women. In this paper, we analyze the causes and consequences of this phenomenon. We argue that women have experienced sharp employment losses both because their employment is concentrated in heavily affected sectors such as restaurants, and due to increased childcare needs caused by school and daycare closures, preventing many women from working. We analyze the repercussions of this trend using a quantitative macroeconomic model featuring heterogeneity in gender, marital status, childcare needs, and human capital. Our quantitative analysis suggests that a pandemic recession will i) feature a strong transmission from employment to aggregate demand due to diminished within-household insurance; ii) result in a widening of the gender wage gap throughout the recovery; and iii) contribute to a weakening of the gender norms that currently produce a lopsided distribution of the division of labor in home work and childcare. |
| JEL: | D13 E32 J16 J20 |
| Date: | 2020–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:27660&r=all |
| By: | Kalenkoski, Charlene M. (Texas Tech University); Pabilonia, Sabrina Wulff (U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics) |
| Abstract: | This study examines the initial impact of COVID-19 shutdowns on the employment and hours of unincorporated self-employed workers using data from the Current Population Survey. Although the shutdowns decreased employment and hours for all groups, differential effects by gender, couple status, and parental status exist. Coupled women were less likely to be working than coupled men, while single women were more likely to be working than single men. However, fathers of school-age children who remained employed were working reduced hours compared to men without children. Remote work mitigated some of the negative effects on employment and hours. |
| Keywords: | COVID-19, coronovirus, self-employment, entrepreneurship, gender, remote work, working from home, labor supply, child care |
| JEL: | D1 J1 J16 J2 J23 |
| Date: | 2020–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp13443&r=all |
| By: | Arpita Patnaik; Matthew J. Wiswall; Basit Zafar |
| Abstract: | This article reviews the recent literature on the determinants of college major choices. We first highlight long-term trends and persistent differences in college major choices by gender, race, and family background. We then review the existing research in six key areas: expected earnings and ability sorting, learning, subjective expectations, non-pecuniary considerations, peer and family effects, and supply side factors. We examine and compare the various approaches employed by previous research and highlight key areas for future research. |
| JEL: | D81 D84 I21 I23 J10 |
| Date: | 2020–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:27645&r=all |
| By: | Wenquan Liang; Ran Song; Christopher Timmins |
| Abstract: | In many countries around the world, migration costs and housing supply restrictions interact with each other and combine to restrict workers’ location decisions. Using an equilibrium sorting model and rich micro data from China, we evaluate the impacts of these dual constraints on workers’ sorting behavior and quantify the resulting changes in aggregate welfare and inequality. We find strong policy interactions between the two kinds of frictions in determining welfare losses and regional inequality. Counterfactual simulations show that lowering migration costs can increase welfare and reduce regional inequality by moving workers from unproductive inland regions to productive coastal regions in China; such welfare and regional distributional impacts depend on the elasticity of housing supply in coastal regions and vice-versa. Results highlight the policy complementarities between reducing the two kinds of frictions and have general implications for countries with different levels of constraints on mobility and housing supply. |
| JEL: | J24 J61 R23 |
| Date: | 2020–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:27643&r=all |
| By: | Christopher Neilson; John Eric Humphries; Gabriel Ulyssea |
| Abstract: | The Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) extended 669 billion dollars of forgivable loans in an unprecedented effort to support small businesses affected by the COVID-19 crisis. This paper provides evidence that information frictions and the “first-come, first-served” design of the PPP program skewed its resources towards larger firms and may have permanently reduced its effectiveness. Using new daily survey data on small businesses in the U.S., we show that the smallest businesses were less aware of the PPP and less likely to apply. If they did apply, the smallest businesses applied later, faced longer processing times, and were less likely to have their application approved. These frictions may have mattered, as businesses that received aid report fewer layoffs, higher employment, and improved expectations about the future. |
| JEL: | H0 J01 J08 |
| Date: | 2020–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:27624&r=all |
| By: | Patrick Bennett (Norwegian School of Economics); Richard Blundell (University College London); Kjell Salvanes (Norges Handelshøyskole) |
| Abstract: | Roughly one third of a cohort drop out of high school across OECD countries, and developing effective tools to address prime-aged high school dropouts is a key policy question. We leverage high quality Norwegian register data, and for identification we exploit reforms enabling access to high school for adults above the age of 25. The paper finds that considerable increases in high school completion and beyond among women lead to higher earnings, increased employment, and decreased fertility. As male education remains unchanged by the reforms, later life education reduces the pre-existing gender earnings gap by a considerable fraction. |
| Keywords: | adult education, returns to education, fertility, gender inequality |
| JEL: | I26 I28 J13 |
| Date: | 2020–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hka:wpaper:2020-058&r=all |
| By: | David G. Blanchflower; Alex Bryson |
| Abstract: | Using data from 68 countries on over 8 million respondents over forty years we show union membership peaks in midlife – usually around workers’ late 40s or early 50s. In doing so we extend Blanchflower’s (2007) earlier study, incorporating a further 39 countries and another decade or so of data. We also found it in every US state and the District of Columbia as well as across industries. The fact that this relationship exists in virtually every country across the world challenges a key precept in industrial relations, namely that institutions matter: they appear to matter little, at least in the case of the hump-shaped relationship between unionization and age. The union membership rates at the age peak in the United States and the United Kingdom have lowered over time, while the age at which the peak has occurred has increased in both countries. In part this is due to increasing union membership rates among those over the age of sixty-five. Declines in membership by birth cohort have lowered union density rates as the older cohorts with historically higher membership rates leave labor markets. |
| JEL: | J14 J50 J51 |
| Date: | 2020–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:27692&r=all |
| By: | Akerlof, Robert (University of Warwick); Ashraf, Anik (LMU Munich); Macchiavello, Rocco (London School of Economics and Political Science); Rabbani, Atonu (University of Dhaka) |
| Abstract: | Conflicts between management and workers are common and can have significant impacts on productivity. We study how workers in a large Bangladeshi sweater factory responded to management’s decision to lay off about a quarter of the workers following a period of labor unrest. Our main finding is that the mass layoff resulted in a large and persistent reduction in the productivity of surviving workers. Moreover, it is specifically the firing of peers with whom workers had social connections – friends – that matters. We also provide suggestive evidence of deliberate shading of performance by workers in order to punish the factory’s management, and a corresponding deliberate attempt by the factory to win the angry workers back by selectively giving them tasks that are more rewarding. By combining ethnographic and survey data on the socialization process with the factory’s internal records, the paper provides a rare glimpse into the aftermath of an episode of labor unrest. A portrait of the firm emerges as a web of interconnected relational agreements supported by social connections. |
| Keywords: | Layoffs ; Productivity ; Morale ; Relational Contracts JEL codes: J50 ; M50 ; O12 |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wrk:warwec:1293&r=all |
| By: | Serdar Birinci; Kurt See; Shu Lin Wee |
| Abstract: | Unemployment inflows have declined sharply since the 1980s while unemployment outflows have remained mostly steady despite a rise in workers' applications over time. Using a random search model of multiple applications with costly information, we show how rising applications incentivize more firms to acquire information, improving the realized distribution of match qualities. Higher concentrations of high productivity matches reduce the incidence of endogenous separations, causing unemployment inflow rates to fall. Quantitatively, our model replicates the relative change in inflow and outflow rates as well as the decline in acceptance rates, job offers and the rise in reservation wages. |
| Keywords: | Costly Information; Unemployment; Multiple Applications; Inflows; Outflows |
| JEL: | E24 J63 J64 |
| Date: | 2020–08–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedlwp:88525&r=all |
| By: | Fujita, Shigeru (Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia); Moscarini, Giuseppe (Yale University); Postel-Vinay, Fabien (University College London) |
| Abstract: | We revisit measurement of Employer-to-Employer (EE) transitions, the main engine of labor market competition and employment reallocation, in the monthly Current Population Survey (CPS). We follow Fallick and Fleischman (2004) and exploit a key survey question introduced with the 1994 CPS redesign. We detect a sudden and sharp increase in the incidence of missing answers to this question starting in 2007, when the U.S. Census Bureau introduced a change in survey methodology, the Respondent Identification Policy (RIP). We show evidence of selection into answering the EE question by both observable and unobservable worker characteristics that correlate with EE mobility. We propose a selection model and a procedure to impute missing answers to the key survey question, thus EE transitions, after the introduction of the RIP. Our imputed EE aggregate series restores a close congruence with the business cycle, especially with the onset of the Great Recession, exhibits a much less dramatic drop in 2008-2009 and a full recovery by 2016, and eliminates the spurious appearance of declining EE dynamism in the US labor market after 2000. We also offer the first evidence of the (large and negative) impact of the COVID-19 crisis on EE reallocation. |
| Keywords: | workforce reallocation, job to job transitions, current population survey |
| JEL: | J63 E24 |
| Date: | 2020–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp13472&r=all |