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on Labour Economics |
| By: | M. Shahe Emran (Columbia University); Francisco Ferreira (London School of Economics); Yajing Jiang (Charles River Associates); Yan Sun (World Bank) |
| Abstract: | This paper extends the Becker-Tomes model of intergenerational educational mobility to a rural economy characterized by farm-nonfarm occupational dualism and provides a comparative analysis of rural China and rural India. The model builds a micro-foundation for the widely used linear-in-levels estimating equation. Returns to education for parents and productivity of financial investment in children’s education determine relative mobility, as measured by the slope, while the intercept depends, among other factors, on the degree of persistence in nonfarm occupations. Unlike many existing studies based on coresident samples, our estimates of intergenerational mobility do not suffer from truncation bias. The sons in rural India faced lower educational mobility compared with the sons in rural China in the 1970s to 1990s. To understand the role of genetic inheritance, Altonji et al. (2005) biprobit sensitivity analysis is combined with the evidence on intergenerational correlation in cognitive ability in economics and behavioral genetics literature. The observed persistence can be due solely to genetic correlations in China, but not in India. Father’s nonfarm occupation was complementary to his education in determining a sons’ schooling in India, but separable in China. There is evidence of emerging complementarity for the younger cohorts in rural China. Structural change in favor of the nonfarm sector contributed to educational inequality in rural India. Evidence from supplementary data on economic mechanisms suggests that the model provides plausible explanations for the contrasting roles of occupational dualism in intergenerational educational mobility in rural India and rural China. |
| Keywords: | Educational Mobility, Rural Economy, Occupational Dualism, Farm-Nonfarm, Complementarity, Coresidency Bias, China, India. |
| JEL: | O12 J62 |
| Date: | 2020–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:inq:inqwps:ecineq2020-555&r=all |
| By: | László Czaller (Agglomeration and Social Networks Lendület Research Group, Centre for Economic and Regional Studies, Budapest, H-1097, Hungary andDepartment of Regional Science, ELTE University, Budapest, H-1117, Hungary); Rikard Eriksson (Department of Geography, Umea University, Umea, SE-901 87, Sweden andCentre for Regional Science at Umea University, Umea, SE-901 87, Sweden); Balázs Lengyel (Agglomeration and Social Networks Lendület Research Group, Centre for Economic and Regional Studies, Budapest, H-1097, Hungary and Centre for Advanced Studies, Corvinus University of Budapest, Budapest, H-1093,) |
| Abstract: | Automation risk of workers prevails less in large cities compared to small cities, but little is known about the drivers of this emerging urban phenomenon. We examine the role of cities on changes in automation risk through individual careers of workers by separating labour mobility to a city from labour mobility within a city. Applying panel data representing all Swedish workers from 2005 to 2013 we provide new evidence that working in, or moving to, metropolitan areas lower automation risk of workers. We find that high-skilled workers enjoy dynamic occupation upgrades in cities and benefit from accumulating experience in the urban labour market, while low-skilled workers experience a single static upgrade when moving to a city. |
| Keywords: | automation risk, metropolitan regions, career upgrade, labour mobility |
| JEL: | J23 J24 J62 R23 |
| Date: | 2020–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:has:discpr:2028&r=all |
| By: | Kimberly Wong |
| Abstract: | This report provides a descriptive analysis of the labour market outcomes of new immigrants to Canada from 2006 to 2019. Using data from the Labour Force Survey, it focuses on four labour market indicators: participation, unemployment, and employment rates, as well as average hourly wages. It compares trends in labour market outcomes among very recent immigrants (5 years or less since immigration), recent immigrants (5-10 years since immigration), and Canadian-born workers. This report finds that new immigrants are on average younger and better educated than the Canadian-born. As a result, their labour force participation and employment rates were comparable to, if not better than, those of the Canadian-born. However, the unemployment rates of new immigrants were higher, and average hourly wages were lower. Over the 2006 to 2019 period, very recent immigrants enjoyed an absolute and relative improvement in all four indicators. Recent immigrants enjoyed an improvement in all four absolute indicators and three of four relative indicators; relative hourly wages were the exception. |
| Keywords: | Immigration, Canada, Labour Market, Productivity, Wage Gap |
| JEL: | F62 O32 O51 O53 L60 |
| Date: | 2020–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sls:resrep:1909&r=all |
| By: | Godechot, Olivier; Apascaritei, Paula; Boza, István; Henriksen, Lasse Folke; Hermansen, Are Skeie; Hou, Feng; Kodama, Naomi; Křížková, Alena; Jung, Jiwook; Elvira, Marta M.; Melzer, Silvia Maja; Mun, Eunmi; Sabanci, Halil; Thaning, Max; Bandelj, Nina; Baudour, Alexis; Avent-Holt, Dustin; Mrécela, Aleksandra Kanjuo; Lippényi, Zoltán; Penner, Andrew; Petersen, Trond; Poje, Andreja; Rainey, William; Safi, Mirna; Soener, Matthew; Tomaskovic-Devey, Donald |
| Abstract: | Analyzing linked employer-employee panel administrative databases, we study the evolving isolation of higher earners from other employees in eleven countries: Canada, Czechia, Denmark, France, Germany, Hungary, Japan, Norway, Spain, South Korea, and Sweden. We find in almost all countries a growing workplace isolation of top earners and dramatically declining exposure of top earners to bottom earners. We compare these trends to segregation based on occupational class, education, age, gender, and nativity, finding that the rise in top earner isolation is much more dramatic and general across countries. We find that residential segregation is also growing, although more slowly than segregation at work, with top earners and bottom earners increasingly living in different distinct municipalities. While work and residential segregation are correlated, statistical modeling suggests that the primary causal effect is from work to residential segregation. These findings open up a future research program on the causes and consequences of top earner segregation. |
| Keywords: | work,earnings,segregation,inequality,elite |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:maxpod:203&r=all |
| By: | William D. Larson; Tara M. Sinclair |
| Abstract: | Near term forecasts, also called nowcasts, are most challenging but also most important when the economy experiences an abrupt change. In this paper, we explore the performance of models with different information sets and data structures in order to best nowcast US initial unemployment claims in spring of 2020 in the midst of the COVID-19 pandemic. We show that the best model, particularly near the structural break in claims, is a state-level panel model that includes dummy variables to capture the variation in timing of state-of-emergency declarations. Autoregressive models perform poorly at first but catch up relatively quickly. Models including Google Trends are outperformed by alternative models in nearly all periods. Our results suggest that in times of structural change there may be simple approaches to exploit relevant information in the cross sectional dimension to improve forecasts. |
| Keywords: | panel forecasting, time series forecasting, forecast evaluation, structural breaks, Google Trends |
| JEL: | C53 E24 E27 J64 R23 |
| Date: | 2020–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:een:camaaa:2020-63&r=all |
| By: | Christopher Foote (Federal Reserve Bank of Boston); William D. Nordhaus (Cowles Foundation, Yale University); Douglas Rivers (Stanford University) |
| Abstract: | This study presents the design and results of a rapid-ï¬ re survey that collects labor market data for households in the United States. The Yale Labor Survey, or YLS, uses an online panel from YouGov to replicate the Current Population Survey (CPS), which is the source of the government’s monthly household statistics. Questions in the YLS concern current and retrospective employment, hours, and income. Because the YLS draws upon an existing pool of potential respondents, it can generate responses inexpensively and quickly (within 24 hours). Moreover, the YLS can develop new questions in real time to study unusual patterns of work and unemployment during the pandemic. Results from the YLS track those from the CPS over the period of April through June of 2020, with relatively accurate estimates of employment but greater difficulty capturing unemployment. The major issue statistical issue dealt with in this paper is the sample weighting required to overcome the bias in using an online panel. |
| Keywords: | Employment, Unemployment, Survey, Weighting |
| JEL: | J1 J11 C83 |
| Date: | 2020–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cwl:cwldpp:2243&r=all |
| By: | Matthew S. Rutlege; Gal Wettstein |
| Abstract: | Holding nontraditional jobs Ð those that provide neither health insurance nor retirement benefits Ð at younger ages likely hurts retirement security relative to traditional jobs. But nontraditional work might be helpful to those looking to extend their careers for financial reasons. This study uses the Health and Retirement Study to determine the extent to which workers in traditional jobs with less retirement security when they reach the cusp of retirement are more likely to move to nontraditional jobs in their mid- to late-60s than those who are more secure, all else equal. It then examines whether working in nontraditional jobs at older ages helps to improve their retirement security by ages 67-68. The results indicate that workers in traditional jobs who reach age 62 with less projected retirement income, relative to their pre- retirement standard of living, are no more likely to engage in nontraditional work after age 62 than those who are better prepared. In fact, some evidence suggests that those who transition to nontraditional work have greater retirement wealth, especially business income, than those who stay in traditional work or who opt not to keep working. Among those workers who are at risk of not maintaining their pre-retirement income level in retirement, however, nontraditional work appears to move them closer to retirement security. These results suggest that nontraditional work may help underprepared workers in good health lengthen their careers and improve their retirement security. |
| Date: | 2020–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crr:crrwps:wp2020-13&r=all |
| By: | Juranek, Steffen (Dept. of Business and Management Science, Norwegian School of Economics); Paetzold, Jörg (Dept. of Economics and Social Sciences, University of Salzburg); Winner, Hannes (Dept. of Economics and Social Sciences, University of Salzburg); Zoutman, Floris T. (Dept. of Business and Management Science, Norwegian School of Economics) |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the labor market effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to combat the COVID-19 pandemic. We focus on the Nordic countries which showed one of the highest variations in NPIs despite having similar community spread of COVID-19 at the onset of the pandemic: While Denmark, Finland and Norway imposed strict measures (‘lockdowns’), Sweden decided for much lighter restrictions. Empirically, we use novel administrative data on weekly new unemployment and furlough spells from all 56 regions of the Nordic countries to compare the labor market outcomes of Sweden with the ones of its neighbors. Our evidence suggests that the labor markets of all countries were severely hit by the pandemic, although Sweden performed slightly better than its neighbors. Specifically, we find the worsening of the Swedish labor market to occur around 2 to 3 weeks later than in the other Nordic countries, and that its cumulative sum of new unemployment and furlough spells remained significantly lower during the time period of our study (up to week 21 of 2020). |
| Keywords: | COVID-19 pandemic; lockdown; labor market effects |
| JEL: | I18 J64 |
| Date: | 2020–07–24 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:nhhfms:2020_008&r=all |
| By: | Schnabel, Claus |
| Abstract: | This survey shows that union membership and density as well as bargaining coverage have fallen in most countries and that collective bargaining has become more decentralized over the last decades. However, there is a considerable amount of variation across countries and between different indicators of unionization and collective bargaining. Unionization is found to be related to a large number of structural, cyclical, institutional, and socio-demographic variables. Although changes in the sectoral structure of the economy and the composition of the workforce have played a role, their contribution to union decline seems to be smaller than widely believed. The effect of globalization on unionization and collective bargaining as well as the role of changing attitudes of employees towards unions are not fully clear, but the rise of the informal sector in various parts of the world poses a challenge to union recruitment. Union density and bargaining coverage are related, but the link is far from perfect. A more important predictor of bargaining coverage is the level at which bargaining takes place. Bargaining coverage is usually high and stable in countries with multi-employer bargaining, and the decentralization of bargaining structures in many countries has contributed to the fall in bargaining coverage observed in the last decades. |
| Keywords: | unions,union membership,collective bargaining,decentralization |
| JEL: | J51 J52 |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:faulre:113&r=all |
| By: | Florent Dubois; Christophe Muller |
| Abstract: | Persistent racial income disparities cannot only be explained by differences in socio-economic characteristics. In this paper, we contend that local segregation should be an essential component of the determination of socio-ethnic income gaps using the contemporary White/African gap in South Africa. First, we complete Mincer wage equations with an Isolation index. Second, we decompose the income gap distribution into detailed composition and structure components. Third, we explore the heterogeneity of segregation effects along three theoretical lines: racial preferences, labor market segmentation, and networks effects. Segregation is found to be the main contributor of the structure effect, ahead of education and experience, and to make a sizable contribution to the composition effect. Moreover, segregation is detrimental to incomes at the bottom of the African distribution, notably in association with local informal job-search networks, while it is beneficial at the top of the White distribution. Only minor influences of racial preferences and labor market segmentation are found. Specific subpopulations are identified that suffer and benefit most from segregation, including for the former, little educated workers in agriculture and mining, often female, immersed in their personal networks. Finally, minimum wage policies are found likely to attenuate the segregation’s noxious mechanisms. |
| Keywords: | Post-Apartheid South Africa, Distribution Decompositions, Income Distribution, Residential Segregation |
| JEL: | J15 D31 R23 |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:drm:wpaper:2020-20&r=all |
| By: | Alma Boustati (Department of Economics, SOAS University of London) |
| Abstract: | The purpose of this paper is to analyse the evolution of female labour force participation in Jordan vis-Ã -vis institutional and economic development. When it comes to institutions, the primary focus willbe on family law and labour law. Within the economic developmentframework, the focus will be on how the social contract motivated the structuring of the economy, labour market, and approach to welfare during three stages of Jordan’s economic development, namely the industrialisation period (1967-1982), the economic bust period (1983-1992), and the economic adjustment period (post-1993). Within each period, the implications of these factors on the composition and size of the female labour force participation is discussed.The findings indicate that a patriarchal approach to welfare, and consequently the low female labour force participation,was sustainable through economic policy which relied on high male wages and high non-wage income achieved through a combination of aid, remittances, and cheap foreign labour. |
| Keywords: | Labour; Women; Jordan |
| JEL: | J16 J21 N35 |
| Date: | 2020–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:soa:wpaper:236&r=all |
| By: | Vasavi Bhatt (Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research); Shweta Grover (Indian Institute of Management Indore); Ajay Sharma (Indian Institute of Management Indore) |
| Abstract: | Using the PLFS 2017-18, this study intends to analyse current labour market from the perspective of COVID-19 pandemic, subsequent lockdown and the expected slowdown in the Indian economy. We intend to explore the questions such as: a) What part of labour market would be largely unaffected from lockdown and expected slowdown? What type of occupations would be the most risky in the wake of social distancing norms? Which are the vulnerable groups of workers in the labour market, that are likely to be the most affected due to the lockdown and its aftermath |
| Keywords: | COVID-19, lockdown, Indian labour market, work from home, decent work |
| JEL: | J10 J21 J63 J80 D69 |
| Date: | 2020–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ind:igiwpp:2020-023&r=all |
| By: | Abeliansky, Ana; Strulik, Holger |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we investigate health and aging before and after retirement for specific occupational groups. We use five waves of the Survey of Health, Aging, and Retirement in Europe (SHARE) dataset and construct a frailty index for elderly men and women from 10 European countries. We classify occupation by low vs. high education, blue vs. white collar color, and by high vs. low physical or psychosocial job burden. Controlling for individual fixed effects, we find that, regardless of the used classification, workers from the first (low status) group display more health deficits at any age and accumulate health deficits faster than workers from the second (high status) group. We instrument retirement by statutory retirement ages ("normal" and "early") and find that the health of workers in low status occupations benefits greatly from retirement, whereas retirement effects for workers in high status occupations are small and frequently insignificant. We also find that workers from low status occupations accumulate health deficits faster after retirement, i.e. we find evidence for an occupational health gradient that widens with increasing age, before and after retirement. |
| Keywords: | health deficits,occupation,retirement,frailty index,Europe |
| JEL: | I10 I19 J13 |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:cegedp:397&r=all |