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on Labour Economics |
| By: | Fasani, Francesco (Queen Mary, University of London); Frattini, Tommaso (University of Milan); Minale, Luigi (Universidad Carlos III de Madrid) |
| Abstract: | This article investigates the medium to long-term effects on refugee labour market outcomes of the temporary employment bans being imposed in many countries on recently arrived asylum seekers. Using a newly collected dataset covering almost 30 years of employment restrictions together with individual data for refugees entering European countries between 1985 and 2012, our empirical strategy exploits the geographical and temporal variation in employment bans generated by staggered introduction and removal coupled with frequent changes at the intensive margin. We find that exposure to a ban at arrival reduces refugee employment probability in post-ban years by 15%, an impact driven primarily by lower labour market participation. These effects are not mechanical, since we exclude refugees who may still be subject to employment restrictions, are non-linear in ban length, confirming that the very first months following arrival play a key role in shaping integration prospects, and last up to 10 years post arrival. We further demonstrate that the detrimental effects of employment bans are concentrated among less educated refugees, translate into lower occupational quality, and seem not to be driven by selective migration. Our causal estimates are robust to several identification tests accounting for the potential endogeneity of employment ban policies, including placebo analysis of non-refugee migrants and an instrumental variable strategy. To illustrate the costs of these employment restrictions, we estimate a EUR 37.6 billion output loss from the bans imposed on asylum seekers who arrived in Europe during the so-called 2015 refugee crisis. |
| Keywords: | asylum policies, economic assimilation, asylum seekers |
| JEL: | F22 J61 K37 |
| Date: | 2020–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp13149&r=all |
| By: | Stefano DellaVigna; Jörg Heining; Johannes F. Schmieder; Simon Trenkle |
| Abstract: | The job finding rate of Unemployment Insurance (UI) recipients declines in the initial months of unemployment and then exhibits a spike at the benefit exhaustion point. A range of theoretical explanations have been proposed, but those are hard to disentangle using data on job finding alone. To better understand the underlying mechanisms, we conducted a large text-message-based survey of unemployed workers in Germany. We surveyed 6,800 UI recipients twice a week for 4 months about their job search effort. The panel structure allows us to observe how search effort evolves within individual over the unemployment spell. We provide three key facts: 1) search effort is flat early on in the UI spell, 2) search effort exhibits an increase up to UI exhaustion and a decrease thereafter, 3) UI recipients do not appear to time job start dates to coincide with the UI exhaustion point. A model of reference-dependent job search can explain these facts well, while a standard search model with unobserved heterogeneity struggles to explain the second fact. The third fact also leaves little room for a model of storable offers to explain the spike. |
| JEL: | D9 J64 |
| Date: | 2020–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:27037&r=all |
| By: | Giesecke, Matthias; Jäger, Philipp |
| Abstract: | We study the labor supply effects and welfare implications of introducing a universal means-tested old-age assistance program in times of very limited social protection. We take advantage of a unique historical reform: The Old-Age Pension Act (OPA) of 1908, which, for the first time, provided pensions to older people in the UK. Using recently released full-count census data covering the entire population, we exploit variation at the newly created age-based eligibility threshold. Our results show a considerable and abrupt decline in labor force participation of 6.0 percentage points (13%) when older workers reach the eligibility age of 70. This sudden drop only occurs at the age cutoff and only after the OPA was implemented. Despite the considerable labor supply decline, the overall efficiency loss from the OPA was limited and most likely outweighed by equity gains. |
| Keywords: | Old-age assistance,labor supply,retirement,regression discontinuity design,equity-efficiency trade-off |
| JEL: | D61 H21 H55 J14 J22 J26 |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:rwirep:844&r=all |
| By: | Sari Pekkala Kerr; William R. Kerr |
| Abstract: | Immigrants account for about a quarter of US invention and entrepreneurship despite a policy environment that is not well suited for these purposes. This chapter reviews the US immigration policy environment that governs how skilled migrants move to America for employment-based purposes. We discuss points of strain in the current system and potential policy reforms that would likely increase the rate of innovation and the number of startups due to immigrants in the country. Key areas include adjustments to the allocation of permanent residency visas, adjustments to the H-1B visa program, and the creation of an immigrant startup visa. |
| JEL: | F22 F23 J15 J44 J61 L26 M13 O31 O32 O33 |
| Date: | 2020–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:27040&r=all |
| By: | Abeliansky, Ana Lucia; Prettner, Klaus |
| Abstract: | We analyze the effects of declining population growth on automation. Theoretical considerations imply that countries with lower population growth introduce automation technologies faster. We test the theoretical implication on panel data for 60 countries over the time span 1993-2013. Regression estimates support the theoretical implication, suggesting that a 1% increase in population growth is associated with an approximately 2% reduction in the growth rate of robot density. Our results are robust to the inclusion of standard control variables, different estimation methods, dynamic specifications, and changes with respect to the measurement of the stock of robots. |
| Keywords: | Automation,Industrial Robots,Demographic Change,Declining Fertility |
| JEL: | J11 O33 O40 |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:518&r=all |
| By: | David Escamilla-Guerrero; Moramay Lopez-Alonso |
| Abstract: | Abstract We evaluate the responsiveness of migrant self-selection to short-run changes in theWe evaluate the responsiveness of migrant self-selection to short-run changes in theeconomic environment. Using novel historical micro data, we estimate the initialselectivity of Mexican migration (1906-08) and focus on labor institutions as short-runadjustment channels of self-selection. We find that the first Mexican migrants werepositively self-selected on the basis of height—a proxy for physical productivity oflabor. Additionally, the US financial crisis of 1907 significantly modified self-selection.Shifts in migrant self-selection during and after the crisis were influenced by theenganche, an institution that reduced migration costs, but only for the “best†Mexicansduring “good†economic times. |
| Keywords: | labor migration, migrant self-selection, Panic of 1907, Mexico |
| JEL: | F22 J61 N36 O15 |
| Date: | 2020–04–27 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oxf:esohwp:_179&r=all |
| By: | J. Ignacio Garcia-Perez; Sílvio Rendon |
| Abstract: | We propose and estimate a model of family job search and wealth accumula-tion with data from the Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP). This dataset reveals a very asymmetric labor market for household members who share that their job nding is stimulated by their partners job separa-tion. We uncover a job search-theoretic basis for this added worker effect, which occurs mainly during economic downturns, but also by increased non-employment transfers. Thus, our analysis shows that the policy goal of in-creasing non-employment transfers to support a workers job search is partially offset by the spouses cross e¤ect of decreased non-employment and wages. The added worker e¤ect is robust to having more children and more education in the household and does not just result as a composition of heterogeneous indi-viduals. We also show that the interdependency between household members is understated if wealth and savings are not considered. Finally, we show that gender equality in the labor market not only improves womens labor market performance, but it also increases mens accepted wages and non-employment rates. |
| Keywords: | non-employment; asset accumulation; estimation of dynamic structural models.; household economics; job search; consump-tion |
| JEL: | C33 E21 E24 J64 |
| Date: | 2020–04–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedpwp:87879&r=all |
| By: | Aksoy, Cevat Giray; Ajzenman, Nicolás; Guriev, Sergei |
| Abstract: | Does exposure to mass migration affect economic behavior, attitudes and beliefs of natives in transit countries? In order to answer this question, we use a unique locality-level panel from the 2010 and 2016 rounds of the Life in Transition Survey and data on the main land routes taken by migrants in 18 European countries during the refugee crisis in 2015. To capture the exogenous variation in natives’ exposure to transit migration, we construct an instrument that is based on the distance of each locality to the optimal routes that minimize travelling time between the main origin and destination cities. We first show that the entrepreneurial activity of natives falls considerably in localities that are more exposed to mass transit migration, compared to those located further away. We then explore the mechanisms and find that our results are likely to be explained by a decrease in the willingness to take risks as well as in the confidence in institutions. We also document an increase in the anti-migrant sentiment while attitudes towards other minorities remained unchanged. We rule out the possibility of out-migration of natives or of trade-related shocks (potentially confounded with the mass-transit migration) affecting our results. Using locality-level luminosity data, we also rule out any effect driven by changes in economic activity. Finally, we find no statistically significant effects on other labor market outcomes, such as unemployment or labor force participation. |
| Date: | 2020–04–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:pj2cd&r=all |
| By: | Ganguli, Ina (Stockholm School of Economics); Hausmann, Ricardo (Harvard Kennedy School); Viarengo, Martina (Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies, Geneva) |
| Abstract: | We examine gender gaps in career dynamics in the legal sector using rich panel data from one of the largest global law firms in the world. The law firm studied is representative of multinational law firms and operates in 23 countries. The sample includes countries at different stages of development. We document the cross-country variation in gender gaps and how these gaps have changed over time. We show that while there is gender parity at the entry level in most countries by the end of the period examined, there are persistent raw gender gaps at the top of the organization across all countries. We observe significant heterogeneity among countries in terms of gender gaps in promotions and wages, but the gaps that exist appear to be declining over the period studied. We also observe that women are more likely to report exiting the firm for family and work-life balance reasons, while men report leaving for career advancement. Finally, we show that various measures of national institutions and culture appear to play a role in the differential labor-market outcomes of men and women. |
| Keywords: | gender gaps, human capital, job mobility, promotion, culture, legal sector |
| JEL: | I26 J16 J62 M51 Z1 |
| Date: | 2020–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp13174&r=all |
| By: | Kristina Reineke (University of Paderborn) |
| Abstract: | Against the background of technological trends, employees are increasingly confronted with digital job demands such as digital hindrance demands (i.e., the introduction of new technologies as well as the associated organizational restructuring) and digital challenge demands (i.e., an increase in task complexity and intensity). Up to now, little is known to what extant these digital demands influence the mental well-being of employees. By drawing on the Job-Demands and Resources (JD-R) model, this research paper assesses the impact of digital hindrances and digital challenges on the emotional exhaustion of employees. Particular attention is paid to the role of age and to the potential buffering effect of traditionally researched job resources (i.e., autonomy, support of leaders and peers). Using hierarchical regression modelling with a sample of 6,855 white collar workers, the results show that digital job demands exert a high and significant positive effect on emotional exhaustion. Whereas traditional job resources and increasing age helped alleviating the effect of digital challenge demands, the emotional exhaustion caused by digital hindrances was unaffected by age and could only limitedly be buffered by traditional resources. (abstract of the paper) |
| Keywords: | emotional exhaustion, JD-R model, job demands, job resources, digitization, age, work environment, hierarchical regression |
| JEL: | J14 M12 O15 O33 |
| Date: | 2020–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pdn:dispap:62&r=all |
| By: | Hie Joo Ahn; Leland Crane |
| Abstract: | We develop a dynamic decomposition of the empirical Beveridge curve, i.e., the level of vacancies conditional on unemployment. Using a standard model, we show that three factors can shift the Beveridge curve: reduced-form matching efficiency, changes in the job separation rate, and out-of-steady-state dynamics. We find that the shift in the Beveridge curve during and after the Great Recession was due to all three factors, and each factor taken separately had a large effect. Comparing the pre-2010 period to the post-2010 period, a fall in matching efficiency and out-of-steady-state dynamics both pushed the curve upward, while the changes in the separations rate pushed the curve downward. The net effect was the observed upward shift in vacancies given unemployment. In previous recessions changes in matching efficiency were relatively unimportant, while dynamics and the separations rate had more impact. Thus, the unusual feature of the Great Recession was the deterioration in matching efficiency, while separations and dynamics have played significant, partially offsetting roles in most downturns. The importance of these latter two margins contrasts with much of the literature, which abstracts from one or both of them. We show that these factors affect the slope of the empirical Beveridge curve, an important quantity in recent welfare analyses estimating the natural rate of unemployment. |
| Keywords: | Beveridge curve; Job separation; Job openings; Natural rate of unemployment; Matching efficiency; Unemployment |
| JEL: | E24 E32 J60 |
| Date: | 2020–03–27 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2020-27&r=all |
| By: | Baert, Stijn (Ghent University); Lippens, Louis (Ghent University); Moens, Eline (Ghent University); Sterkens, Philippe (Ghent University); Weytjens, Johannes (Ghent University) |
| Abstract: | This study is the first in the world to investigate the expected impact of the COVID-19 crisis on career outcomes and career aspirations. To this end, high-quality survey research with a relevant panel of Belgian employees was conducted. About 21% of them fear losing their jobs due to the crisis—14% are concerned that they will even lose their jobs in the near future. In addition, 26% expect to miss out on promotions that they would have received had the COVID-19 crisis not occurred. This fear of a negative impact is higher in vulnerable groups, such migrants. In addition, we observe that many panel members believe they will look at the labour market differently and will have different work-related priorities in the future. In this respect, more than half of the panel members indicate that they have attached more importance to working conditions and work-life balance since the COVID-19 crisis. |
| Keywords: | COVID-19, careers, employment, career aspirations |
| JEL: | J63 J62 J30 J41 J15 J16 |
| Date: | 2020–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp13164&r=all |
| By: | Schön, Matthias |
| Abstract: | This paper presents long term projections of the German pension system that are based on a general equilibrium model with overlapping generations (OLG). This framework takes into account the two way feedback of both micro and macroeconomic relationships, meaning that households, for example, react to changes in the statutory pension system, such as the retirement age or the replacement rate. Changes in households' behaviour, in turn, impact on macroeconomic developments and public finances. One approach to parametrically reform the pension system would be linking (indexing) the retirement age systematically to increasing life expectancy. The model shows that the resulting increase in employment would also bolster social security contributions and taxes. Moreover, with a rising retirement age and the associated longer periods of work, pension entitlements would increase. |
| Keywords: | Demographic Change,Pension System,OLG Models |
| JEL: | E27 E62 H55 J11 J26 |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:bubdps:222020&r=all |
| By: | Hooijen, Inge (RS: GSBE Theme Learning and Work); Bijlsma, Ineke (RS: GSBE other - not theme-related research, ROA / Dynamics of the labour market); Cörvers, Frank (RS: GSBE Theme Learning and Work, RS: SBE - MACIMIDE, ROA / Human capital in the region, RS: FdR Institute ITEM); Poulissen, Davey (RS: GSBE other - not theme-related research, ROA / Training and employment) |
| Abstract: | There is ample evidence from different research disciplines that location factors such as employment opportunities or the availability of amenities and facilities are a powerful predictor of settlement behaviour. Recent research suggests that citizens’ mean personality traits could be an additional predictor of where young people settle. We therefore explore 1) the extent to which recent graduates in the Netherlands are geographically clustered with respect to five different personality traits, 2) whether the geographical clustering of graduates is intensified as they grow older, 3) how regional environmental characteristics are related to personality traits, and 4) the extent to which personality traits play a role in graduates’ location choices. Our results reveal a distinct geographical clustering of personality traits among the different regions in the Netherlands. We also show that this geographical clustering becomes more blurred as graduates age. The results furthermore show robust associations between personality traits and several environmental characteristics with respect to demographic, economic, health, political, sociocultural, crime, and religious outcomes. In addition, we show that personality traits play a role in graduates’ location choices. Economic factors seem to have a larger impact in determining location choices than personality traits. |
| JEL: | J61 R23 D91 |
| Date: | 2020–02–17 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unm:umagsb:2020003&r=all |
| By: | Joachim Wilde (Osnabrueck University) |
| Abstract: | Overcoming long-term unemployment is a challenging task in which trust of the long-term unemployed in their caseworkers is a key issue. However, research about drivers of this trust is a white spot in the literature. The paper closes this gap. Embedded in a theoretical model at the organizational level a trust game with real long-term unemployed and caseworkers is evaluated empirically. The results support the social identity theory, i.e. trust in members of the “own” group is higher than trust in the members of the “other” group, as well as more traditional explanations of trust. The results are used for policy conclusions. |
| Keywords: | trust, long-term unemployment |
| JEL: | C25 C91 J64 J68 |
| Date: | 2020–04–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iee:wpaper:wp0118&r=all |
| By: | Filippo Belloc; Gabriel Burdin; Fabio Landini |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes whether labor institutions affect the design of firm hierarchies. We rationalize the role of workplace employee representation (ER) within an otherwise standard knowledgebased model of hierarchies as developed by Garicano (2000), where the firm’s optimal choice of hierarchical layers depends on the trade-off between communication and knowledge acquisition costs. To explore the empirical validity of our framework, we rely on establishment-level data on a sample of more than 18000 private-sector workplaces in Europe. We uncover a set of novel descriptive facts regarding the structure and change in corporate hierarchies under the presence of employee representatives. In particular, ER is positively correlated with the depth of hierarchy (number of vertical layers), while there is no significant association between ER and delayering. These relationships appear to be mediated by firm size. We also document that delayering does not translate into greater worker empowerment, although the presence of ER reduces the probability of functional centralization among delayered establishments. Moreover, the presence of ER correlates with the frequency of staff meetings and the accumulation of noncodifiable productive knowledge through job training and skill development. The analysis of managers’ perceptions suggests the higher frequency of meetings in firms with ER does not lead to more delays in the implementation of organizational changes. Taken together, our findings indicate that the effect of ER on the firm hierarchy is driven by a reduction in communication costs rather by an increase in knowledge acquisition costs, facilitating the flow of information to top decision makers possibly through skip-level reporting. |
| Keywords: | Firm hierarchy, Delayering, Employee representation, European Company Survey |
| JEL: | J51 L23 M11 |
| Date: | 2020–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:usi:wpaper:827&r=all |
| By: | Takuya Obara (Faculty of Economics, Tohoku Gakuin University); Yoshitomo Ogawa (School of Economics, Kwansei Gakuin University) |
| Abstract: | This study examines the optimal tax structure in an endogenous fertility model with non-cooperative couples. In the model, both the quality and number of children are sub- optimal because of the non-cooperative behavior of couples. Moreover, we consider the external e?ects of children on society and center-based childcare services. In such a uni- fied model, we characterize the formulae for optimal income tax rates, child tax/subsidy rates, and tax/subsidy rates on center-based childcare services. We find that income taxation, but not a child subsidy, corrects the suboptimal low fertility rate caused by the non-cooperative behavior of couples. To alleviate the deadweight loss from income taxation, a child tax is useful. The child tax (subsidy) becomes optimal if the required tax revenue is larger (smaller) than the external e?ects. The subsidy for external child- care services corrects the external e?ect of children, not the non-cooperative behavior. These results are reinforced by the numerical analysis. |
| Keywords: | Non-Cooperative Couple, Endogenous Fertility, Optimal Income Tax, Opti- mal Child Tax/Subsidy |
| JEL: | H21 J13 J16 |
| Date: | 2020–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:kgu:wpaper:211&r=all |
| By: | Alex Bryson; Babatunde Buraimo; Alex Farnell; Rob Simmons |
| Abstract: | That football Head Coaches will be dismissed for poor performance and will quit when they have better outside options seems obvious. But owners may find it hard to distinguish poor performance from bad luck and may find it difficult to identify and attract talented Head Coaches from other clubs even if their current Head Coach is performing below expectations. Equally, Head Coaches may have few options to move to better clubs even when they are performing well. Using rich data on Head Coach characteristics we identify determinants of quits and dismissals across four professional football leagues over the period 2002-2015. We find that Head Coaches’ probabilities of dismissal are significantly lower when the team is performing above expectations, with the effect strongest for recent games. However, in contrast to earlier studies, we find that performing above expectations also reduces the probability of Head Coach quits. Head Coach success in the past, as well as Head Coach experience, reduce the probability of being dismissed, even when conditioning on team performance, suggesting Head Coach human capital has some ‘protective’ effect in managerial careers. Past experience has little effect on quit probabilities – with the exception of tenure at the current employer, which is associated with lower quit rates. We test the robustness of our results by confining estimates to first exits, within-season departures and by dealing with unobserved Head Coach heterogeneity. |
| Keywords: | quits, dismissals, managerial performance, team performance, football, competing risks |
| JEL: | J23 J24 J63 J64 |
| Date: | 2020–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:liv:livedp:202011&r=all |
| By: | Kristina Reineke (University of Paderborn); Holger Steinmetz (Leibniz Institute for Psychology Information); Rodrigo Isidor (University of Bayreuth); Rüdiger Kabst (University of Paderborn) |
| Abstract: | Despite substantial research, evidence regarding the relationship between the proportion of women on top management teams (TMTs) and firm performance is still inconclusive. Building on upper echelons theory, this paper expands the discussion of potential moderating effects in this regard by applying a complementary perspective to the commonly studied organization-oriented factors. Applying a person-oriented perspective to the composition of TMTs, this study argues that the recruiting source of TMT members – whether members were recruited from the owner’s family, from the internal job market or the external job market – leads to differences in the job-relevant characteristics of TMT members. Consequently, the recruiting source should moderate the relationship between TMT gender composition and performance. Our analysis of 1025 German medium-sized enterprises (MEs) shows that there is no main effect of the proportion of women on firm performance. However, recruiting from the owner’s family and the internal labor market have a significant negative moderating influence on the relationship between the proportion of women on TMTs and firm performance. Conversely, hiring externally exerts a significant positive effect.(abstract of the paper) |
| Keywords: | top management team; gender; proportion of women; performance; person-oriented moderators; recruiting |
| JEL: | J16 L25 M12 M14 |
| Date: | 2020–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pdn:dispap:60&r=all |
| By: | Asger Lau Andersen (CEBI, Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen); Amalie Sofie Jensen (Department of Economics, Princeton University); Niels Johannesen (CEBI, Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen); Claus Thustrup Kreiner (CEBI, Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen); S�ren Leth-Petersen (CEBI, Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen); Adam Sheridan (CEBI, Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen) |
| Abstract: | How do households respond to job loss, and which self-insurance channels are most important? By linking customer data from the largest bank in Denmark with information from government administrative registers, we quantify a broad range of responses to job loss in a unified empirical framework. Two response margins stand out: during the first 24 months after job loss, households reduce spending by 30% of the income loss while reduced saving in liquid assets accounts for 50%. Other response margins highlighted in the literature - spousal labor supply, private transfers, home equity extraction, mortgage refinancing, and consumer credit - are less important. |
| Keywords: | Household economics, unemployment, self-insurance, transaction data |
| JEL: | D14 J65 |
| Date: | 2020–04–17 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:kud:kucebi:2012&r=all |